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Demonstration of Inspection, Loading, SAND2015-5265C

Mitigation, Cracking, and Sampling Options


within xLPR V2.0 and their effect on Pipe
Rupture Probabilities
UcPowerEnergv2015-49749, 2015 ASME Nuclear Forum, July 2nd 2015

Scott Sanborn, Remi Dingreville, Paul Mariner, Cedric Sallaberry,


Aubrey Eckert-Gallup, Dusty Brooks - Sandia National Laboratories

David Rudland - U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Craig Harrington - Electric Power Research Institute
Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the _ ....
U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE- Frederick Brust Robert Kurth Engineering Mechanics Corporation
AC04-94AL85000. SAND No. 2015-XXXXXX of Columbus
xLPR within a Regulatory Framework
10CFR50 Appendix A, General Design Criterion -4:
" ... dynamic effects associated with postulated pipe ruptures in
nuclear power units may be excluded from the design basis when analyses
reviewed and approved by the Commission demonstrate that the probability
of fluid system piping rupture is extremely low ... "

NUREG-0800 Section 3.6.3 "Leak Before Break Procedure"


" ... demonstrate that PWSCC [primary water stress corrosion cracking]
is not a potential source of pipe rupture."

SRP 3.6.3 does not allow for assessment of piping systems with active
degradation such as Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC)
However, subsequent to the approval of LBB at most US PWRs, PWSCC
growth has been observed in many weld locations
Industry implemented an enhanced inspection and mitigation program

extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR)


Probabilistic fracture mechanics tool that fully addresses and quantifies
uncertainties and may be used to directly assess compliance with GDC-4
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xLPR V2.0 - Overview
This work is a continuation of the results of a pilot study
The past work focused on the pilot study
Objectives
Develop project management structure
Assess technical feasibility
Determine appropriate probabilistic framework
Final Pilot Study NRC/EPRI document has been published
xLPR Pilot Study Report. U.S. NRC-RES, Washington, DC, and EPRI, Palo Alto,
CA: NUREG-2110 and EPRI 1022860. 2012.
This presentation focuses on the xLPR Version 2.0
Objective
Build on success of pilot study
Expand code for leak-before-break capability

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xLPR V2.0 - Conceptual flow
Probabilistic fracture mechanics in a weld

I Nozzle

Material Properties

itainless Steel Field Weld

t=t

Initiation
Leakage Inspection/
^ligation

Steel Pipe

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xLPR V2.0 - Model flow chart
Input and option reading Mitigation
User inputs Mechanical Stress
Chemical
Improvement Process
(zinc and hydrogen)
Pre-processing Materials | M SIP >
Stress intensity properties and
Leak rale CDFs database Weld inlay Weld overlay
(change in crack length, (change in WRS,
materials, WRS) materials, wall thickness)
Sampling structure
Epistemic Aleatory
sampling sampling
Crack propagation
Crack growth Critical flaw
K-field
module module
Initiation COO module
Crack type: axial vs. Weld residual
Load Crack Crack initiation circumferential stress (WRS)
module location module Leak rate
Surface vs through wall Crack coalescence module
cracks stability module
Inspection
module

Probability of leak/rupture Rost-process i ng

Sampiii sa
Statistical
loop analysis

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xLPR V2.0 - Framework

Input
Distributions Circ_Crack_Type
Circ_Crack_Growth

Tip_material_cc

C i rc_Cra c k_C oalescence

Circ_C ra c k_lniti at ion


Circ_Crack_properties
Circ_Crack_Tran s it ion

i_ServiceJnspection m| ] ra| i

Circ_Crack_StabiI ity

Circ_Crack_Leak_Rate Circ_Crack_COD

Previous_i nspecti o n_st at us_cc

Sampling Physical (deterministic)


For inputs defined by models
distributions sampling Definition of all input variables as
performed at quantile level well as simulation controls
and transformed to sampled
User interface value Each container hosts module(s)
SimEditor and Excel workbook
developed by the Models Group
allow the user to define inputs Two sampling loops used - an (subject matter experts) and
outer epistemic loop and an compiled as a DLL
inner aleatory loop
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xLPR V2.0 - User Interface
xLPR Sim Editor

Approximately 500 G ET STARTED WELD TYPE DATABASE MATERIAL DATABASE AXIAL WR5 DATABASE HOOP WRS DATABASE SHARE TOOLS HELP WEB.BUILD85

inputs, most of
which may be
Weld Type Edit Save New Duplicate Delete General. Weld Operating. Mitigation Cracks Inspection/Leak Correlations
Selector v Options Conditions Options Detection

Weld Type Actions Weld Type Properties

defined as xLPR Sim Editor is currently a Development (Beta) version of the software. Development versions of this software should NOT be distributed,

distributions DM-RCV (P) | View or update the General Weld Options properties in the Weld Type database.

A Weld Type M ateri a Is


Weld Type Name; | DM-RCV (P) Pre-D dined i User-Defined

Inputs Set Excel Weld Type Materials


Base 1 Material: jSA-538 (Pj

spreadsheet - Weld Type


Base Z Material: ~

directly read by
Weld Material: {inconel 182 (P)
Geometry
Weld Type

GoldSim but
learning curve for
Data Source: Constant : Distribution: NORMAL

l&Q | Mean: 11.001

users Importance Sampling: fno


yr I

I
'D.

[Min:
h

e;----------------------
I Max]:
Importance Value:

SimEditor-tool to
help users fill in Geometry
Pipe Outer Diameter

Input Set Data Source: Constant Distribution: NORMAL

spreadsheet and
0.885825 Mean: |o.34

pull from or create Importance Sampling;:

Importance Value:
no

0.5

own databases Pipe Wail Thickness

Data Source: Constant Distribution: NORMAL

0.066675 Means

Importance Sampling: no

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xLPR V2.0 - Sampling strategy

Two loops are considered (one can be ignored by setting the sampling
size to 1). For each loop, the user can select from the following
options:
Simple random sampling (Monte Carlo) or Latin Hypercube Sampling
(LHS)
Discrete Probability Distribution (DPD)
Importance sampling applied to selected values
Possibility of creating 8 sampling combination:
[LHS vs. RS]x[DPD vs. no DPD]x[No importance vs. importance] for
each loop (totaling 8 epistemic X 8 aleatory = 64 combinations)

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Representation and Interpretation of Results
Parameters selected either as aleatory or epistemic: guidance needed

Inner aleatory loop vs. outer epistemic loop

Interpretation of the results:

Aleatory uncertainty represents the risk. Epistemic uncertainty represent the level of
Not simply [probability]x[consequence] knowledge we have with respect to this risk
but probability and consequence related Sandia
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Deterministic Model within xLPR

A single weld realization through time


Initiation
Growth
Circ_Crack_Type
Circ_Crack_Growth

Crack-type change (surface, transition, Tipmaterialcc

through wall, rupture) Ci rcCrackCoal e scenes

Coalescence (circumferential only) Circ Crack Initiation


Ci rcCrack prope rt i e s

Crack stability with and without safe Circ_Crack_Transition

shutdown earthquake (SSE)


Circ_ln_ServiceJnspetion

Crack Opening Displacement (COD) Circ_Crack_Stability

Ci rc Crac k_Le akRate Ci rc Crack COD

Leak Rate Rrevious_i n s pect i on_statu s_cc

Inspection
Repair & Mitigation
Modular - enables future updates to
physical models

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Results Available form xLPR Runs
GoldSim Player - xLPR-2.0 Beta2.1_R5 Probabilistic 2015-06-18.gsp

xLPR Framework Model version 2.0


Results Dashboard

General Results

or crack opening area thresholds


Probabilities of cracking, leakage, r
Individual
__
histories available
: ill
and statisti
I J
median, quantiles)
Can turn results off and/or reduce repor
frequency for very large nu mber of realizations
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Demonstration of Options and Effects

The following results are meant to demonstrate


different options available in the code and their effects
on the important results.
Beta version of the xLPR V2.0 code - bugs may still exist
Not all inputs may be realistic - input databases still being
created
The results presented are based on a dissimilar metal
weld for a reactor pressure vessel nozzle
Base metals - SA-508 and SA-182
Weld material - Inconel 182
Same geometry, materials, loads (except transients),
WRS, and sample size used for all the following
demonstrations

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Effect of Including Axial Cracks
Circ. Only vs. Circ. & Axial
1.0E+00

1.0E-01
<D
U
c
<D
3
u
1.0E-02
u
O
> 1.0E-03
!E
ro
.Q
o
Q
1.0E-04
C
ro
<u

1.0E-05

1.0E-06
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (yr)
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Effect of Including Fatigue
PWSCC & Fatigue vs. PWSCC Only
1.0E+00

1.0E-01
<u
u
c
<D
3u
u
O 1.0E-02
O
<4-

> -----Occurr. Of Crack - PWSCC & Fatigue


!E
ro
.q
---- Occurr. Of" Crack - PWSCC only
o
1.0E-03
-----Occurr. Of Leak - PWSCC & Fatigue
c
ro
<u ---- Occurr. Of Leak - PWSCC Only
1.0E-04 -----Occurr.OfRupture - PWSCC & Fatigue
---- Occurr. Of Rupture - PWSCC Only

1.0E-05
30
Time (yr)
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Effect of ISI Interval
ISI Interval 10 yr vs. 20 yr
1.0E+00

1.0E-01
<u
3
u
u
O
o
1.0E-02
!E
So
c
ro ----- Occurr. Of Crack - 20 yr ISI
<u 1.0E-03 -----Occurr. Of Crack - 10 yr ISI
----- Occurr. Of Leak - 20 yr ISI
-----Occurr. Of Leak - 10 yr ISI
----- Occurr. Of Rupture - 20 yr ISI
-----Occurr. Of Rupture - 10 yr ISI
1.0E-04
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (yr)
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Effect of Chemical Mitigation
No Mitigation vs. Zn and H2 at 20 yrs
1.0

0.9

0.8

DO
0.7
JO

0.6
I
O
M

0.5

0.4
si
o
0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
10 20 30 40
Time (yr)

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Effect of Mechanical Mitigation
No Mitigation vs. Weld OverLay (WOL) at 20 yrs
1

0.9

0.8
<D
U
c
<D 0.7
3u
u
O 0.6

> 0.5
!E
ro
.q 0.4
o
Q

C
ro 0.3
<u

0.2

0.1

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (yr)
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Use of Importance Sampling
Comparison of Importance Sampling
1.0E-02

Importance Sampling can get smoother curves earlier in life


More realizations with event happening
<D
U
c
<U
3u
u
O
<4-
Occurr. Of Rupture due to SSE - no IS
O
> 1.0E-03
-----Occurr. Of Rupture due to SSE - IS
!E
ro
.q
o

c
ro
<u Used to estimate very low probability events with
less realizations (for example the early life mean
rupture probabilities due to SSE)
Will converge to random sampling with large
enough simulations

1.0E-04
30
Time (yr)
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xLPR V2.0 Status

Individual deterministic models completing verification tests


and validation studies
Input set database under development
Complete problems
Materials database
WRS database
Transient load database
Verification testing and validation testing of framework
underway - completion expected Fall 2015.
Development of the User's Manual and technical basis
documents for the models, framework, and inputs - NUREG-
series and EPRI-series reports - completion expected end of
2015.
Development of User's Group

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Acknowledgements
Code Development Leads David Rudland - US NRC, Craig Harrington - EPRI

Computational Group Models Group Inputs Group


Remi Dingreville- Sandia National Laboratories Marjorie Erickson - PEAI Guy DeBoo - Exelon
Mike McDevitt- EPRI Mike Benson- U.S. NRC Gary Stevens - U.S. NRC
Cedric Sallaberry - Sandia National Laboratories Mark Kirk -U.S. NRC Matt Homiack - U.S. NRC
Aubrey Eckert-Gallup- Sandia National Laboratories Kyle Schmitt - Dominion Engineering Ashok Nana - AREVA NP Inc.
Mariner, Paul-Sandia National Laboratories John Broussard - Dominion Engineering Nathan Palm - Westinghouse
Patrick Mattie - Sandia National Laboratories Glenn White - Dominion Engineering
Scott Sanborn - Sandia National Laboratories Chris Casarez - Dominion Engineering QA Group
Dusty Brooks - Sandia National Laboratories Do-Jun Shim - Emc2 Nancy Kyle - Theseus
Robert Kurth - Emc2 Elizabeth Kurth - Emc2 xLPR Team
Dilip Dedhia - Structural Integrity Associates Bud Brust - Emc2
David Harris-Structural Integrity Associates Suresh Kalyanam - Emc2 Program Manager
Paul Williams -Oak Ridge National Laboratory Sean Yin - Oak Ridge National Laboratory Nate Leech - Demark
Ken Geelhood - PNNL Richard Bass - Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Naveen Karri - PNNL Cliff Lange - Structural Integrity Associates Program Integration Board
Ian Miller - GoldSim Steven Xu - Kinectrics Denny Weakland - Ironwood Consulting
Ryan Roper - GoldSim Doug Scarth - Kinectrics Bruce Bishop - Westinghouse
Russ Cipolla - Aptech Rob Tregoning - U.S. NRC
Mike Hill - UC Davis Jay Collins - U.S. NRC
Steve Fyfitch - AREVA NP Inc.
Rick Olson - Battelle
Andrew Cox - Battelle
Lee Fredette - Battelle
Bruce Young - Battelle
Mark Dennis - EPRI
Carl Latiolais- EPRI
Thiago Seuaciuc-Osorio- EPRI
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Abstract

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan (SRP) 3.6.3 describes Leak-Before-Break (LBB)
assessment procedures that can be used to assess compliance with the 10CFR50 Appendix A, GDC-4 requirement
that primary system pressure piping exhibit an extremely low probability of rupture. SRP 3.6.3 does not allow for
assessment of piping systems with active degradation mechanisms, such as Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking
(PWSCC) which is currently occurring in systems that have been granted LBB approvals. A cooperative effort between
the NRC and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) through a memorandum of understanding, conducted a
multi-year project that focused on the development of a viable method and approach to address the effects of
PWSCC in primary piping systems approved for LBB. This project, called extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR),
leverages existing fracture mechanics-based models employed to model the physical cracking behavior of piping
systems and a variety of computational options are provided to characterize, categorize and propagate problem
uncertainties. The xLPR code is modular and flexible to permit analysis of a variety of in-service situations, and
adaptable to accommodate evolving and improving knowledge. This presentation provides an overview of the code
structure, fracture-mechanics-based models, computational framework, treatment and propagation of uncertainties.
An example of PWSCC in piping systems will exercise different functionalities of the xLPR code to demonstrate its
application to assess compliance with 10CFR50 Appendix A, GDC-4. A comparison between the leak and rupture
probabilities will be made as a function of: with and without inclusion of axial cracks; with and without the inclusion
of fatigue loading; variations on the in-service inspection (ISI) intervals, with and without different chemical and
mechanical mitigation applied, and with and without importance sampling on selected inputs. The resulting
probabilities will qualitatively demonstrate which options have the most significant effect on the structural integrity
of the weld.

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Deterministic Model Backup Slides

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Deterministic Model - Crack Initiation
PWSCC 3 available LE+04 v/ dp con n err 1/3 3
1 = Ae-Q/RTon a >ari
Direct model 1 [1, 2, 3] tINI ,nom X A

D-z
Direct model 2 [4, 5] t,Ni = BGeQ'RT In
-z
ys
1/p
Weibull model 1 INI, nom e((-In (Uini ))

Fatigue based on ANL curves [6-9]


ln(N) = Co + Cn - 1\n(sa-e)-ln(FSmf) - ln(F,,) - ln(F)

Initial Flaw first flaw in first subunit (top


center); others randomly assigned until specified
number of initial flaws is reached
When multiple initiation mechanisms are
allowed (e.g. PWSCC + Fatigue) the initiation is
calculated independently and then earliest initial
flaw is selected.
When flaw is first initiated in a given subunit,
depth and width are sampled from user input
distribution; location is random within subunit

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Deterministic Model - Weld Residual Stress (WRS)

Pre-Mitigation Axial WRS


WRS is described by a
piecewise representation
of 26 stress points
through the pipe wall
thickness
Pre-mitigation axial
Pre-mitigation hoop
Post-mitigation axial -100

Post-mitigation hoop
WRS stress values may be
deterministic or normally
distributed.
Can importance sample
on inner diameter value.

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Deterministic Model - Stress Intensity Factors (SIF)

Universal Weight Function Method (UWFM) [10]


Axial and circumferential [11, 12]
Benchmarked against FEA [13, 14]
Increase or decrease in SIF due to fatigue:
Calculated by TIFFANY as a pre-processor
User may apply an uncertainty factor to the change in SIF

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Deterministic Model - Crack Growth

PWSCC and Fatigue growth considered independent


PWSCC
Based growth equations in EPRI MRP-115 [15] and MPR-
263 [16]
Effects of dissolved hydrogen included
Fatigue
Model forms material dependent and are based on ASME
Section XI code [17-19]
Uses operating conditions and history (rise time, load
ratio, environment, chemistry)
General fatigue growth model for user defined material
based on the Paris model is also available
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Deterministic Model - Crack Coalescence

Only applicable to
circumferential cracks
Cracks assumed to be
in the same plane
Rule based to
determined if two
xLPR-SRD-Coalescence V2.2
cracks are close enough
to interact

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Deterministic Model - Inspection

Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of


Repair (POR) models
POD model parameters from EPRI's Performance
Demonstration Initative [20]
Eight common unmitigated nozzle configurations
Small flaws assume a linear interpolation below
10% through wall thickness

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Deterministic Model - Crack Stability

Circumferential cracks
Surface Crack (SC) - Net Section Collapse
Through Wall Crack (TWC) - Net Section Collapse and/or
elastic-plastic tearing instability
Axial cracks
SC - limit load analysis in Ductile Fracture Handbook [21]
TWC - limit load and elastic-plastic tearing instability
For Dissimilar Metal (DM) welds material properties
used in stability modules are a combination of the
base metal material properties
Stability checked with/without SSE loads

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Deterministic Model - Crack Transition

SIF and COD solutions based on ideal surface and


through wall cracks
A surface crack that just breaks through the thickness of
the pipe is not ideal - OD (rads) < ID (rads)
The crack transition module provides correction factors
for the SIF and COD for a non-ideal crack based on FEA
[22, 23]

xLPR-MVR-K CTM V1

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Deterministic Model - Crack Opening
Displacement (COD)

Needed for prediction of leak


rates
Based on GE/EPRI solution [24]
Modified to a wider range of
combined loading conditions
Axial [26] and circumferential [25]
xLPR-MVR-AxCOD V1
solutions were benchmarked
against FE calculations

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Deterministic Model - Leak Rates

LEAPOR module based on SQUIRT software [27]


Henry-Fauske non-equilibrium model
Orifice flow at higher CODs
Pre-processor generates look-up table of leak rates
to be interpolated by the framework
Uncertainties applied with a scaling parameter
based on crack morphology for leak rates lower
than 10 gpm.

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Deterministic Model - Mitigation

Mechanical (change in stresses and/or crack types)


Mechanical Stress Improvement Process (MSIP)
Weld Overlay (WOL)
Weld Inlay
Chemical (accounted for in initiation and growth
modules)
H2 - slows growth
Zn - slows initiation

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1.
References
C. Amzallag, S.L. Hong, C. Pages and A. Gelpi, Stress Corrosion Life Assessment of Alloy 600 PWR Components", Ninth International Symposium on Environmental Degradation of Materials in Nuclear Power
Systems - Water Reactors, The Minerals, Metals and Materials Society, edited by F.P. Ford, S.M. Bremer and G.S. Was, 1999, pp. 243-250.
2. F. Cattant, F. Vaillant, J.M. Boursier, and S. De-Vito, Contribution of Hot and Cold Laboratory Investigations to the Resolution of EDF Alloys 600/182/82 PWSCC Issues", EPRI2005 International PWSCC of Alloy 600
Conference, Santa Ana Pueblo, New Mexico, 2005
3. J. Daret, Initiation of SCC in Alloy 600 Wrought Materials: A Laboratory and Statistical Evaluation", Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Environmental Degradation of Materials in Nuclear Power
System - Water Reactors, The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society, 2005, pp. 937-944
4. Stress Corrosion Cracking Initiation Model for Stainless Steel and Nickel Alloys - Effects of Cold Work. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1019032.
5. Validation of Stress Corrosion Cracking Initiation Model for Stainless Steel and Nickel Alloys - Effects of Cold Work. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2012. 1025121.
6. O.K. Chopra, W.J. Shack, Effects of LWR Coolant Environments on Fatigue Design Curves of Carbon and Low-Alloy Steels, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report NUREG/CR-6583, Washington, D.C., 1998.
7. O.K. Chopra, W.J. Shack, Environmental Effects on Fatigue Crack Initiation in Piping and Pressure Vessel Steels, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report NUREG/CR-6717, Washington, D.C., 2001.
8. O.K. Chopra, W.K. Soppet, W.J. Shack, Effects of Alloy Chemistry, Cold Work and Water Chemistry on Corrosion Fatigue and Stress Corrosion Cracking of Nickel Alloys and Welds, NUREG/CR-6721, U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 2001 April.
9. O.K. Chopra, W.J. Shack, Effect of LWR Coolant Environments on the Fatigue Life of Reactor Materials, NUREG/CR-6909, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 2007 February.
10. Xu, S., Scarth, D., and Cipolla, R., Technical Basis for Proposed Weight Function Method for Calculation of Stress Intensity Factor for Surface Flaws in ASME Section XI Appendix A," PVP2011-57911, Proceedings
of the ASME 2011 Pressure Vessels & Piping Conference, PVP2011, July 17-21, 2011, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
11. S. X. Xu, D. A. Scarth and R. C. Cipolla, Calculation of Stress Intensity Factor for Surface Flaws Using Weight Functions with Piece-Wise Cubic Stress Interpolation ASME Section XI Appendix A", Proceedings of the
2012 ASME Pressure Vessel & Piping Division Conference, PVP2012-78236, July 2012, Toronto, Canada.
12. S. X. Su, D. R. Lee, D. A. Scarth, and R. C. Cipolla, Closed-Form Relations for Stress Intensity Factor Influence Coefficients for Axial ID Surface Flaws in Cylinders for Appendix A of ASME Section XI," Proceedings of
the ASME 2014 Pressure Vessels & Piping Conference, PVP2014-28222, July 2014, Anaheim, CA, USA.
13. Shim, D.-J., Kerr, M., and Xu, S., Effect Of Weld Residual Stress Fitting On Stress Intensity Factor For Circumferential Surface Cracks In Pipe," Proceedings of the ASME 2012 Pressure Vessels & Piping Conference,
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