Volume VI 04

FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR PT.
PLN (PERSERO)
Penyaluran dan Pusat
TRANSMISSION MASTER PLAN SYSTEM OF
Pengatur Beban
SUMATERA STUDY Sumatera
Final Report of transmission master plan
study of Sumatera system
MASTERPLAN SISTEM
KELISTRIKAN SUMATERA
Kontrak No.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015
Amandemen No.1.AMD.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015
VOLUME VI
FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR TRANSMISSION
MASTER PLAN SYSTEM OF SUMATERA STUDY
Final Report of transmission master plan study of Sumatera system
Prepared By
AF-Mercados EMI
PT. Prima Layanan Nasional Enjiniring
Jalan Wijaya I No.61 - Jakara 12170
22 JUNI 2017
Kontrak No.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015 PT. PLN (PERSERO)
Amandemen No.1.AMD.0322.PJ/KON.02.04/P3BS/2015 Penyaluran dan Pusat
Pengatur Beban
Sumatera
VOLUME VI
Final Report of transmission master plan study of Sumatera system
Prepared By
AF-Mercados EMI
MASTERPLAN SISTEM KELISTRIKAN

SUMATERA
FINAL REPORT
PT. Prima Layanan Nasional Enjiniring
Jalan Wijaya I No.61 - Jakara 12170
22 JUNI 2017
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FINAL MASTERPLAN SISTEM
REPORT KELISTRIKAN SUMATERA
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Content
Content ................................................................................................................................. i
Table of Figures ................................................................................................................... v
6.1. The Consultancy Assistance .................................................................................. 1
6.2. The purpose of this report: ..................................................................................... 2
6.3. Summary of the analysis, comments and conclusions of the Review of the
Preliminary Master Plan ................................................................................................... 2
1. Review on demand forecast ......................................................................................... 2
ii. General ................................................................................................................... 2
iii. Assessment of Models Variables........................................................................... 3
1. GDP and Large Customers Approach .................................................................... 3
2. Population Growth, Number of Households and Electrification Rate ..................... 3
3. Impacts on the Tariff (Inflation, Generation Mix, and Quality of Supply) ................ 4
4. Other Parameters ................................................................................................... 5
a. Customers Energy Consumption Switch ................................................................ 5
b. 8.2.4.2 Energy Efficiency Initiatives ........................................................................ 5
c. 8.2.4.3 Busbar Demand and Network Losses ....................................................... 5
5. Assessment of Data Set Sources ................................................................................. 6
6. GDP vs GRDP .............................................................................................................. 6
7. Limitations of Supply .................................................................................................... 6
8. Statistical Tests and Sensitivity Analysis ...................................................................... 7
9. Tests ............................................................................................................................. 7
10. Monte Carlo Approach .............................................................................................. 7
11. Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 7
12. Analysis and comments of the Preliminary Generation and Transmission expansion
plan. 8
13. The current planning paradigm. ................................................................................ 9
14. Demand Forecast in Preliminary T&D Plan ............................................................ 11
15. Integration of Demand Forecast for Planning purposes ......................................... 11
16. Use of the Demand Forecast in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning ........................ 13
17. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects of the use of the Demand Forecast
13
18. Fuel price scenario in Preliminary T&D Plan .......................................................... 14
19. Fuel prices for Planning purposes .......................................................................... 14
20. Fuel prices in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning .................................................... 16
21. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects of fuel prices .............................. 16
22. Generation reliability in Preliminary T&D Plan ........................................................ 17
23. Generation reliability for Planning purposes ........................................................... 17
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24. Integration of generation reliability in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning ................ 17

25. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects of generation reliability ............... 18
26. Carbon targets and pollution in Preliminary T&D Plan ............................................ 18
27. Carbon targets for Planning purposes .................................................................... 18
28. Carbon targets in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning .............................................. 20
29. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects in carbon and pollution targets .. 21
30. Economic Vs Financial in Preliminary T&D Plan .................................................... 21
31. Economic Vs Financial for Planning purposes ........................................................ 21
32. Economic Vs Financial in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning. ................................ 22
33. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects in the implementation of economic
and financial costs ............................................................................................................. 23
34. Relationship among key aspects in Preliminary T&D Plan ..................................... 23
35. Demand behavior & generation mix........................................................................ 23
36. Distributed Vs. Central generation: ......................................................................... 23
37. Fuel cost Vs. generation and transmission expansion. ........................................... 24
38. Generation reliability Vs. expansion........................................................................ 24
39. Carbon & Pollution targets Vs. expansion. ............................................................. 25
40. Evaluation of the results of the Preliminary Generation Plan: ................................. 25
41. Base Case .............................................................................................................. 25
42. Alternative 1: Peak coverage, Optimal mix: ............................................................ 30
43. Alternative 2: PLN Margin (43%): ........................................................................... 32
44. Alternative 3: CO2 cost: .......................................................................................... 32
45. Alternative 4: Increase of Fuel prices: ..................................................................... 33
46. Evaluation of the Planning framework and approach of the Preliminary Transmission
Plan: 34
47. Selection of approach of planning related to the generation plan. .......................... 35
48. Understanding the two planning approaches .......................................................... 35
49. Approach of planning considered in the Preliminary Master Plan of Sumatra ........ 36
50. Suggestions and recommendations about the planning approach in the Master Plan
of Sumatra system. ............................................................................................................ 37
51. Selection of addition or retirement of levels of voltage in the system. .................... 37
52. Understanding the change of voltage level ............................................................. 37
53. Change of voltage considered in the Preliminary Master Plan of Sumatra ............. 38
54. Suggestions and recommendations about the inclusion of 500 KV level in the Master
Plan of Sumatra system..................................................................................................... 38
55. Triggers of expansion of substations and scope of the evaluation ......................... 39
56. Understanding the trigger of expansion needs ....................................................... 39
57. Triger of expansion of Substations in the Preliminary Master Plan of Sumatra ...... 39
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58. Suggestions and recommendations about the Trigger of expansion of Substations in

the Master Plan of Sumatra system................................................................................... 40
6.4. Analysis of reliability of the transmission master plan .......................................... 41
1. Performed analysis: .................................................................................................... 41
2. Period up to 2021: ...................................................................................................... 41
3. Period 2022 - 2025: .................................................................................................... 42
4. Base case east corridor at 500 kV:............................................................................. 42
5. Alternative case double corridor at 500 kV: ................................................................ 43
6. Period 2026 - 2030: .................................................................................................... 44
7. Base case of analysis: ................................................................................................ 45
9. Beyond 2030: ............................................................................................................. 45
6.5. Analysis of the voltage stability of the power system for the proposed transmission
master plan .................................................................................................................... 45
2. Period up to 2021: ...................................................................................................... 46
3. Period 2022 to 2025: .................................................................................................. 47
4. Base case east corridor at 500 kV:............................................................................. 48
6. Period 2026 to 2030: .................................................................................................. 49
7. Beyond 2030: ............................................................................................................. 50
6.6. Analysis of the dynamic stability of the power system for the proposed transmission
master plan. ................................................................................................................... 51
2. Period up to 2021: ...................................................................................................... 52
3. Period 2022 - 2025: .................................................................................................... 56
4. Base case of analysis: ................................................................................................ 56
6. Conclusion: ................................................................................................................. 85
7. Period 2026 - 2030: .................................................................................................... 86
8. Beyond 2030: ........................................................................................................... 100
6.7. Economic analysis of the transmission master plan ........................................... 102
a. Effective application of the financial resources to the power system during the planning
period. .............................................................................................................................. 102
i. Net Vs. Effective costs during the planning period: ............................................ 102
ii. Estimation of the effective costs for the planning horizon. ................................. 103
b. Calculation of Effective costs considered in the Sumatra Master Plan. ................... 106
i. Effective cost in transmission and sub transmission lines: ....................................... 106
ii. Effective cost in transmission substations: ............................................................... 112
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iii. Effective cost in sub-transmission substations: ........................................................ 114

iv. Effective cost of the proposed Master Plan: ......................................................... 116
c. The balance of the costs and benefits of the proposed investments ........................ 116
d. Rationale of the proposed investment in the context of the power system costs ..... 118
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Table of Figures
Figure 1: Evolution of the planning paradigm ...................................................................... 9

Figure 2: Screening curve of Technology mix ................................................................... 14
Figure 3: Optimal Mix by Technology ................................................................................ 15
Figure 4: Installed Capacity Vs Peak Load ........................................................................ 27
Figure 5: Plant Factor for CCGT ........................................................................................ 28
Figure 6: Marginal Costs of the System ............................................................................. 29
Figure 7: Generation Dispatch ........................................................................................... 29
Figure 8: Expansion with no generation margin ................................................................ 30
Figure 9: Marginal Cost- Expansion without operative margin .......................................... 31
Figure 10: Generation Dispatch - Expansion without operative margin ............................. 31
Figure 11: Review of generation MIX - Same Expansion Margin ...................................... 32
Figure 12: Expansion MIX with CO2 Cost ......................................................................... 33
Figure 13: Generation Mix including Fuel prices increment along the study period .......... 34
Figure 14: Main architecture of the alternative 500 and 275 kV backbone ........................ 44
Table 1 : Quantity of transmission lines installed by year during the planning period ..... 106
Table 2: Km of line installed by year ................................................................................ 107
Table 3: Cost of the transmission lines - Millions of USD ................................................ 108
Table 4: Annual equivalent payment for the investments executed each year Million USD
(10% discount rate, 30 years of life cycle) ....................................................................... 109
Table 5: Annual O&M for the investments executed each year Million USD (3% of the
investment cost)............................................................................................................... 110
Table 6: Capacity of the transmission substations in the Master Plan ............................ 112
Table 7: Capacity of the sub-transmission substations in the Master Plan ..................... 114
Table 8: Summary of costs of Transmission Master Plan ............................................... 116
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VOLUME VI
Final Report of Transmission Master Plan Study of Sumatera
System
6.1. The Consultancy Assistance
PLNE launched a competitive tender to hire an international consultant to provide the
FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR TRANSMISSION MASTER PLAN SYSTEM
OF SUMATERA STUDY.
In general terms the different Stages of the development of the Master Plan include the
participation of both parties: Local Experts (PLNs Staff and local consultants) and Foreign
Consultant:
1) Phase 1: Review of the Preliminary Master Plan prepared by Local experts

whereas the foreign Consultant shall provide valuable comments and propose
suitable improvements on:
a. Methodology of analysis.
b. Data and information available for the studies
c. Models implementation.
2) Phase 2: Detailed analysis of electrical performance of the proposed plan,

economic and reliability analysis, the Foreign Consultant shall carry out these
sections of the Master Plan, and provide capacity building to the local staff (in
form training).
The following table shows the kind of participation expected to be done by each of the
participants in the development of the Master Plan.
No Description Local Foreign
1 Survey and Data Collection Do Comment
2 Demand Forecast (Simple E) Do Comment
3 Generation Planning (WASP) Do Comment
4 Transmission Planning (PSSE)
- Load Flow Do Comment
- Short Circuit Analysis Do Comment
- Transient Stability (rotor angle, voltage, frequency) Comment Do
- Small signal stability Comment Do
- Voltages stability (PV Curves) Comment Do
- Contingency analysis Comment Do
- Switching study (PSCAD) Comment Do
5 Grid Economic and reliability analysis Comment Do
6 Training:
- Demand Forecast Do Enrichment
- Generation Planning Do Enrichment
- Transmission Planning Do
- Grid Economic and reliability analysis Do
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AF-Mercados was selected for Foreign Consultancy Services for Transmission Master Plan
System of Sumatera Study.
6.2. The purpose of this report:

In the frame of the development of this study AF-Mercados is delivering this report related
to the activities of the Stage 4 of the project:
a. Stage 4: Technical Performance of the transmission master plan, economic and

reliability analysis of the transmission master plan. Delivery of Final Report of
transmission master plan study of Sumatera system.
The Final Report of transmission master plan study of Sumatera system includes:
Summary of the Analysis, comments and conclusions of the Review of the
Preliminary Master Plan submitted as deliverable 03 of the project.
Reliability analysis of the final transmission master plan
Analysis of the voltage stability of the power system for the proposed
transmission master plan
Analysis of the dynamic stability of the power system for the proposed
transmission master plan.
Review and final adjustments of the master plan for practical implementation.
Economic analysis of the final transmission master plan.
6.3. Summary of the analysis, comments and conclusions of the Review of

the Preliminary Master Plan
1. Review on demand forecast
ii. General
Demand forecast is an essential piece for developing a plan of the network operation and
long-term investments. An inadequate estimate of the expected load can lead to over
expenditure, or on the contrary, failing to meet the necessary requirements for the proper
operation of the network. It is also important to note that the accuracy of the forecasting
decreases as we separate in time from present as the uncertainty of the variables and
parameters increases.
In that sense, the demand forecasting should be robust and reliable, based on updated data
and under reasonable scenarios whose probability of occurrence is high.
Data selected for the model should meet two main conditions: theoretical justification and
existence of numerical relationship and its significance.
The consultant has reviewed the model currently utilized for this purpose in Sumatra. It is a
standard Top Down approach model utilizing macroeconomic indicators and their future
outlooks through econometric methodology to pin point the inherent relationship between
these indicators and energy growth. Additionally, a Bottom Up approach is introduced for
Large Customers in the model, which will be commented on in the Section 1.1.2.1.
A strong point of the study is that the forecast is taking overall energy consumption including
regions which are served by isolated systems with future potential for connection to the
main grid.
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After careful revision, the Consultant has come up with comments and suggestions on the
following items which will be discussed in detail in the following sections of this review:
Explanatory Power of Variables, Statistical Tests and Consumers Behavior
Monte Carlo Approach and Sensitivity Analysis
Impacts on the Tariff (Inflation, Generation Mix, and Quality of Supply)
Large Customers
Population Growth, Number of Households and Electrification Rate
Network Losses
Limitations of Supply
Regional and National GDP Growth Rates
Renewable Energy in the Generation Mix
Sources:
iii. Assessment of Models Variables

The model selected independent variables GDP, population and tariffs and electrification
rate as economic indicators that have an influence on the consumption for electricity. These
parameters are typical in demand forecasting. Variables may be valid or not for this study
according to two approaches: i) the representativeness of the concept within this specific
study, and ii) the validity of the data supporting the variable.
The Consultant has made an analysis of the Variables (in this section) and the Sources (in
section below) in order to ascertain their validity.
1. GDP and Large Customers Approach

Estimating the extra energy that large customers could potentially consume may be seen
as a good practice for tweaking the model, with the purpose of making it more realistic.
However, given that the model at hand is conducted using a Top Down approach where the
whole model is driven by Macroeconomic factors, the actual inclusion of the Bottom Up
variables is a complicated endeavor. Main reason for this being that historically there was
already an inflow of big customers to the Sumatran system, and these are already captured
by regressing the industrial GDP with the energy sales to the industrial clients. Hence, this
practice could result in double counting of actual consumption needs of the large clients.
The Study should have analyzed the impact of the aforementioned large customers in the
used macroeconomic variables (GDP in particular) so that both effects could have been
separated.
2. Population Growth, Number of Households and Electrification Rate

The driver for energy consumption is the population but also the number of households
(equally important). Using the population growth as the variable is acceptable in a
developed country as the household compositions do not change drastically and the
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number of households and the population are linked. However, the reality of Indonesia is
that it is a developing country and the ratio of inhabitants per household usually decreases
over the time with a larger increase in number of households with an important impact on
the overall consumption. There are fixed and variable uses of electricity. Variable use shall
be driven by the number of people whereas fixed use shall be driven by number of houses.
Hence, the Consultant considers that using number of electrified households (that involves
the population, the ratio of inhabitants per household and the electrification ratio) would be
a better approach.
In particular, the ratio of inhabitants per household, the behavior in the long run and
estimation are necessary to have an accurate extrapolation under Section 2.7.1
(assumptions) of the report. Actually, the results in the report suggest that at present, there
are 4.12 inhabitants per household while in 2035 there will be 4.13. Regardless of the fact
that this increase is not natural (according to country development expectations), the fact
that it is considered stable in the following 20 years requires at least a deeper analysis.
3. Impacts on the Tariff (Inflation, Generation Mix, and Quality of

Supply)
Projections of consumption concepts such as Energy Demand depend on real (constant)
prices rather than on nominal ones. Growing the average tariffs by inflation rate adds more
parameter uncertainty in the model. Rather, real prices should be used as they influence
the real purchasing power of the consumers, and are more likely to have an impact on
demand changes.
If the inflation was used for the calculation of prices, it should also be used for the GDP
growth and the same should have been included to estimate customers purchase power.
Hence the effect of inflation will be neutralized. It should also be neglected when preparing
the econometrical formula for the demand growth; i.e. if the inflation, as mentioned, was the
only driver of tariff change, it should be clear that there would be no effect on the regressed
variable as the effect of inflation would be neutralized. Therefore, we understand that
modifying the tariff by means of the inflation is not accurate in this study.
However, we understand there are other endogenous factors that affect the tariff level in
the following years. The mix of generation shall have an important impact on the electricity
price. In a 30-year projection, the generation costs (main driver of tariffs) shall definitely
change and thus the tariff level paid by the consumers will also be affected. We understand
that the study has not gone deep enough within this area in order to estimate how this
parameter shall behave in the future. Options that the Consultant considers are the
following:
If it is concluded that the generation mix shall be the same as today, the
study must have provided some clarifications of the average production
price/cost based on the estimations of fuel cost (in this particular case, Coal).
It is important to ascertain whether the government shall maintain same coal
price for electricity or it shall move with international market (which also
needs to be evaluated). The Monte Carlo approach for calculating the
probabilities of the outcomes of the model would also allow to evaluate
probability of changes in fuel cost.
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If it is concluded that there is a possibility of modification of the generation

mix (introduction of renewables, other fuels, etc.), then the study must have
analyzed the impact on the final tariff price.
Likewise, investments in quality of supply shall have an impact in the final tariff. Whereas
estimations based on expansion should be linked to growth, those related to improvement
of the quality of the supply shall be borne by the consumers as an extra in the tariffs. This
latter factor may be marginal compared to the overall tariff but needs to be assessed within
the existing framework.
4. Other Parameters
Additionally, in a long forecasting like the one included in this study, other exogenous factors
need to be taken into account in the analysis (it may not be representative in the end but
the analysis should have been included), as for example the switch between energies.
a. Customers Energy Consumption Switch

Nowadays, there is a certain energy mix in the consumers energy use, i.e. electricity is
used for certain purposes (lighting, cooling, etc.) and other energies like gas, oil and
(maybe) coal are used for other purposes. In case that, for example, gas prices rise,
factories and residential consumers can switch to electricity. Likewise, with coal or (less
probably) wood. In this way, electric cooks, electric vehicles, electric furnace (in industry)
etc. can substantially modify the electricity consumption. In 30 years, there is a high chance
that the energy mix will change and shift more towards electricity. Even in the case that the
overall country energy consumption trend does not change, increase of electricity use is
possible due to this effect. Hence, the study should include an estimation of the potential
transfer between energies in order to add it to the final result.
b. 8.2.4.2Energy Efficiency Initiatives

Another change in customers spending habits can come from Energy Efficiency initiatives.
In general, there is no evidence that consumption behavior changes unless there are some
external factors. In addition to price behavior, these programs can also affect the
consumption. For example, if subsidized, low consumption bulbs and more efficient
appliances can find their way into homes. Otherwise, if not incentivized, it is unlikely to see
the switch towards these technologies as they are more expensive. There was no analysis
of potential Governmental Energy Efficiency programs or visions in place. If the programs
are not reliable then different scenarios (or Monte Carlo method) can be used.
c. 8.2.4.3 Busbar Demand and Network Losses

The study is not including any projections about the busbar demand but only consumers
demand. Whereas the consumers demand is the key factor for many applications, for the
utility the real useful information is the busbar demand to estimate future needs in
generation, transmission and distribution.
In this regard, the study presents the real situation of transmission and distribution losses
without any estimation of its expected behavior in the following years. Considering that the
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study is for 30 years, it is deemed necessary to undertake an analysis of potential

improvements in this area. The following are high level approaches to the same.
The figure of 3% is still high for transmission network losses. Internationally, 1.5%-2% is
most appropriate in the grids. In addition, activities like reactive compensation, energy flows
optimization and reconditioning of the lines may easily help to reduce losses.
Considering that master plans are under development and that the study is for 30 years, a
reduction of 1% would be necessary to incorporate (and also include the correspondent
investments). At least, two scenarios would be necessary (business as usual and with loss
reduction activities).
The statement that the distribution losses are easier to lower is generally true but it is
necessary to dig into details. According to the data presented, distribution overall losses
would be around 7%. That value is among the best-in-class for distribution. Reductions of
this value are usually very costly and unless losses are located in one specific and focused
problem, it is financially not viable to go below that number. The Consultant do not see
much room for improvement in distribution losses.
5. Assessment of Data Set Sources

The source and accuracy of the data must be defined to ensure the quality of the model. It
is important to state the sources on items crucial to the estimations, and some of these are
currently missing from the plan, such as the ones for the main data table 2.1 and for prices
(CAPEX, OPEX) and efficiencies. These are sensitive data that need to be checked for
authenticity and for comparative purposes. It is optimal to have the most reliable sources
such as national and international institutions, when available.
In addition, the following are some cases in which the Consultant has some doubts about
the robustness of the approach chosen in the study.
6. GDP vs GRDP
There is no evidence for the assumption that the acceleration rate of the province's
economic growth will be in line with the national economic growth rate. It is not necessarily
true that Sumatra must follow the national GDP as there are important economical
differences between provinces.
Considering that there is information about past GDP and GRDP at least a correlation needs
to be done with the past data.
7. Limitations of Supply
In case that the load shedding was historically present in Sumatra, and that it also continues
to the date as stated in the report, this is a major problem for the preparation of the
econometric regression as the historical data is not reflecting the real electricity needs
unless it is corrected.
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If this is the case, then the historical data is likely to be insufficient to forecast the future
unless there are adjustments in the last years based on estimations or information on non-
supplied electricity.
The Consultant has not seen the excel model but currently, there is no methodology present
in the report for adjusting the data set based on the load shedding impacts in the past (this
can also be in the form of a new parameter).
8. Statistical Tests and Sensitivity Analysis

9. Tests
In practice, the explanatory power of the used variables can be limited in the model and
certain statistical tests must be performed to ensure the significance of the chosen
variables. The tests chosen in the report are appropriate for checking the robustness and
significance of the model, however, no test results were actually shared in the report and
the Consultant was not able to examine them.
10. Monte Carlo Approach

For different scenarios with potential outcomes, the Monte Carlo method is used. A base
scenario is created, then Monte Carlo is applied to ascertain the probability of different
scenarios based on assumptions for various parameters. The crucial part of this analysis is
planning how to customize the parameters of the Monte Carlo method. The consultant has
not been provided with the results of the Monte Carlo test nor how the customization of the
parameters was planned.
Although the limited number of variables may have allowed a simpler sensitivity analysis,
the Monte Carlo Method is an excellent approach for obtaining probabilities of various
scenarios of outcomes based on assumptions of different parameters and customizations
for these parameters.
The key factor in the Monte Carlo analysis is the estimation of the probability functions of
the different variables (which are difficult to predict). For instance, what are the probabilities
that the population doubles by 2045? The study is not showing any probability function of
any of the variables nor any results of the Monte Carlo. The Consultant cannot ascertain
whether the results provided in the demand forecast of each of the regions correspond to
the mean, the maximum, etc.
11. Conclusions
The demand forecasting methodology used complies with international standards for this
kind of studies. It includes macroeconomic variables, econometric analysis and tests and
Monte Carlo approach to establish the probability of the results. However, a deeper analysis
of how the assumptions are taken and the data sets utilized show that there are some
important gaps that can affect the accuracy of the final values provided. As an example, we
can present the mismatch between GDP and regional GDP, the lack of consideration of the
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inhabitants per household, inexistence of estimation of future generation costs within the
tariff future estimation (and the inaccurate use of the inflation), no consideration of future
new generation technologies, etc.
Short term estimations may be valid as this industry has a strong inertia and it is unlikely
that major changes occur in the main parameters within the following 2 or 3 years. However,
the Consultant thinks that there is a high probability that the final values shown for the future
long run demand may be misleading. A more accurate analysis is necessary to ensure a
more accurate prediction from year 5 onwards.
12. Analysis and comments of the Preliminary

Generation and Transmission expansion plan.
The Consultant has performed a systematic analysis of the Preliminary Generation and
Transmission Master Plan proposed by the local team in the document INTERIM REPORT
- MASTERPLAN SISTEM KELISTRIKAN SUMATERA dated November 2106.
The analysis was focused on a comparison of the methods and implementation used for
the Preliminary Plan with the current planning paradigm by mean of:
1. Characterize the key aspects of the current-planning-paradigm as a reference for
the analysis of the Preliminary Plan.
2. Analyze the Preliminary Plan about the incorporation and implementation of these
key aspects of the current Planning Paradigm:
a. Analysis of each key aspect separately:
i. Has been incorporated (or not).
ii. The method, data and implementation used.
iii. Suggestions on elements to be improved in each of the key aspects
b. Interaction among key aspects in Master planning:

i. The way the key aspects interact and impact each other in the
Preliminary Plan.
ii. Point out the main interaction aspects to be improved in the
Preliminary Plan and suggest either verifications or changes.
c. Evaluation of the implementation and results of the Preliminary Plan:
i. General Assessment of the Preliminary Plan.
ii. Key aspects to be improved
1. Sensible parameters to be monitored.
2. Robust and conditional elements of the Investment Program
3. Decision-gates to validate both the planning scenario and
conditional investments
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13. The current planning paradigm.

PLN has perfomed Power System Planning for years and systematically complete a review
and update of their plans, so the experience of PLNs planning departments and staff is very
valuable for the definition of an appropriate Master Plan of the Sumatra Power System.
On the other hand, execution of planning is not a static exercise to be established once and
repeated along the years, planning is a dynamic discipline which evolution considers among
others the integration of the technology development, the business model in place of the
power system under study as well as the social and economic demands and constraints.
Nowadays the Master Planners are facing a challenging and dynamic framework of analysis
at the time that the economic and financial effectiveness of their decision is increasing the
importance.
The following diagram shows the evolution of the Planning paradigm of the las decade and
the challenges for the planners.
Figure 1: Evolution of the planning paradigm
In order to select the key aspects to be analyzed the following table shows the screening of
selection:
Aspect Included in Interim Report Impact in the Master Plan
Uncertainty on Demand There is only one scenario of demand HIGH

forecast in the study
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Uncertainty on Fuel Prices The current study neither includes Important.

forecast of prices nor uncertainty
criteria
Uncertainty on variable costs Variable costs are fixed, local Low

component of fuel transport may be
included.
Uncertainty on Private decisions Current assumption of efficient Low on investments

investment.
Economic vs financial evaluation of Differentiation between financial and Medium. (regulatory efficiency and
private participation. economic costs is a must in master market maturity is a reasonable
planning assumption in planning).
Foreseen Generation reliability. Implemented with a very conservative Important (prevent over investments
margin of reserve in all the horizon of in the long term help the economic
study. evaluation of the short and mid-term
decisions)
Lack of long-term projects Implemented. There is a reasonable NA

expansion program and retirement
plan included in the Preliminary plan.
Carbon Targets Non-included. Current assumption of Important. (Local and International

no consideration is financially correct pressure for environmental friendly will
but economically weak. For the long likely result in the incorporation of
term is likely un realistic the carbon and pollution costs in the mid-
permanence of the current assumption term)
in the long term.
Renewable Energy and Storage Partially Included. Impact of Medium-low. The market is not able to
Devices integration of relevant participation of integrate these technologies,
non-conventional RE (solar and wind) governmental programs may displace
shall be analyzed. conventional generation, but very often
the transmission grid remain in similar
needs because increase requirements
of redundancy and generation reserve.
Distributed and intermittent Non-Included. The main facilities and Low. For master Planning, without an
Generation investments remain more or less immediate program of integration of
stable but operative requirements will intermittent generation the impact of
increase. the intermittent generation may be
absorbed in strong requirement for the
frequency and voltage stability.
Pattern of use of the Transmission Non-Included. Modern and dense Low: Sumatra transmission system
Grid transmission system has change their will remind in the conventional
paradigm of transfer of energy long paradigm at least for the short-term
distances into a paradigm of ensure and mid-term.
the regional balance of energy and
support the ancillary services and
reserve and redundancies among the
regions.
From the previous table the Consultant has selected the following key aspects as priorities
in the analysis of the Preliminary Master Plan:
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Uncertainty on Demand There is only one scenario of demand HIGH

forecast in the study
Uncertainty on Fuel Prices The current neither includes forecast Important.

of prices nor uncertainty criteria
Foreseen Generation reliability. Implemented with a very conservative Important (prevent over investments
margin of reserve in all the horizon of in the long term help the economic
study. evaluation of the short and mid-term
decisions)
Carbon Targets Non-included. Current assumption of Important. (Local and International

no consideration is financially correct pressure for environmental friendly will
but economically weak. For the long likely result in the incorporation of
term is likely un realistic the carbon and pollution costs in the mid-
permanence of the current assumption term)
in the long term.
Economic vs financial evaluation of Differentiation between financial and Medium. (regulatory efficiency and
private participation. economic costs is a must in master market maturity is a reasonable
planning assumption in planning).
14. Demand Forecast in Preliminary T&D Plan

In the previous chapter the Consultants comments on the demand forecast itself (and the
opportunities of improvement) were explained.
In this chapter, we are addressing the integration of the demand forecast into the planning
of the transmission and generation system; we will review the way the planning method is
using the demand forecast, the current implementation and the opportunities to improve this
subject of the Master Planning exercise.
15. Integration of Demand Forecast for Planning

purposes
The definition of a demand forecast is an exercise focused in supplying relevant information
for the agents of the sector for their interest. The master planner is one of these agents and
must review how to use this forecast for his specific purposes.
Clearly the purpose of the planning of G&T is to ensure the effective and efficient supply of
the demand along all the horizon of study. So, the basic assumption is that the planer just
must define enough facilities to cover the forecast demand for each period. The reality is
more complex than this, the demand must be satisfied but there are some additional
considerations to be considered, including but not limited to:
1) Must all the demand be supplied by the generation system?
Very often, as the demand becomes big and sophisticated, part of the demand is
supplied by alternatives to the power system. For example, the industrial sector
integrates processes of production that aim to make efficient self/co-generation to
supply their demand partially, it is a usual practice in large industries with flat load
curve, so the impact in the needs for base generation changes. In the residential
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sector the integration self-generation by roof solar panels depends on the policy of
the state about the integration of RE, and in the commercial sector big shopping
centers and financial institutions tend to integrate distributed generation for self-
consumption as part of their corporative brand.
We should make clear that we are not considering the structural change of the
demand in this section, which impacts the forecast of the demand, but the way to
supply this demand once it has changed.
2) Must the demand be supplied in the same regime?
Following with the previous point it is required to consider that even though along
the period of study a bigger fraction of the demand will become self-supplied the
customers will keep depending on the power system for their supply under
contingency.
As consequence of this initial two point the master planner shall consider a realistic
scenario of switching of part of the demand into self-supplied demand but
considering the sufficiency of the system to eventual supply this demand.
3) Where will the demand be located?
The prevision of the allocation of the future demand is a key aspect to define the
transmission needs.
Which is the required accuracy?
HV Level: From an HV level standpoint (500 and 220 KV) the purpose of the system
is the transfer of big blocks of energy between regions, a detailed Spatial Load
Forecasting (SLF) is not required (this level of detail is required for Distribution
planning). At this level the demand growth must be foreseen in zonal terms. The
planner must be able to balance the big energy flows: Split of existing corridors,
reinforcement of redundancies and injections and withdrawal of energy to the High
voltage system.
Sub-Transmission Level: For sub transmission level the purpose is oriented to the
delivery of the capacity instead to the transfer of big blocks of energy, at this level
at least a pattern of evolution of demand density around the substations is required
to coordinate the geographic allocation of the demand with the defined sub-
transmission facilities.
4) Coherence between demand scenarios and planning framework.
It is important to consider that the incorporation of more than two or three demand
growing scenarios in the planning exercise may introduce confusion to the final
analysis, the main purpose of the alternative scenarios is to define a range to limit
the uncertainty about the demand for planning purposes.
It must be pointed out that any alternative scenario to be considered must

correspond to a reasonable and coherent set of planning parameters, i.e. the low
growth of demand scenario must be used together with a small economic
development, and/or low prices of energy/fuels.
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16. Use of the Demand Forecast in the Sumatra

Preliminary Planning
The Consultant found the following characteristics in the implementation of the demand for
the definition of the Preliminary Master Plan.
1) For the definition of the preliminary master plan there was considered one scenario
of demand forecasting.
2) As a reference scenario, the considered demand forecasting met the requirements

for master planning exercise.
3) No implementation of alternative scenarios or other means of including the

uncertainty of demand development was found.
4) It is considered that no relevant fraction of self-supply of electricity will be

implemented by the customers along the period of study.
5) The characterization of the zonal and local pattern of demand growth is weak and
not clear.
6) No active programs of demand management or incentives for an efficient use of

electricity was considered.
7) The geographic discrimination of demand forecast takes place at a province-level,

this is useful for planning of High-voltage level, but the discrimination at sub-
transmission level is neither clear nor explained.
17. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects

of the use of the Demand Forecast
The Consultant suggests the following recommendations in order to assess and mitigate
the weak aspects of the implementation of the demand forecast in the master plan.
1) Repeat the WASP optimization with sensitivities on demand growth in order to

assess the structural impact of the variation of the demand on the development of
the generation system.
2) Review the assumptions in change on the behavior of the demand and their impact
on the generation and transmission system in specific:
a. Integration of distributed generation.
b. Increment of self/co-generation by the industrial sector.
3) Based on the historic records of demand by substation, structure a pattern of

demand growth by substation for estimation of expansion needs at sub-transmission
level.
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18. Fuel price scenario in Preliminary T&D Plan

19. Fuel prices for Planning purposes
The price of the fuel is the key parameter of the variable cost of the electrical energy
produced by a power plant.
The Optimal mix of generation technologies depends on the investment cost of the plants
and the variable cost of generate the electricity. The following graph is taken from the Interim
Report of the preliminary master plan.
Figure 2: Screening curve of Technology mix
1400
SCREENING CURVES
PLTU Subcritical (400 MW)
1200
PLTU Supercritical (600 MW)
PLTU USC (1000 MW)
PLTGU (250 MW)
1000
Levelized Cost [$/kW-yr]
PLTGU (500 MW)

PLTG (150 MW)
PLTG (250 MW)
800 PLTP (55 MW)
PLTN (1000 MW)
600
400
200
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Unit Capacity Factor [%]
This graph correctly supports a selection of the kind of technology that must be implemented
subject to its expected operation time. The appropriate mix depends on the pattern of the
load curve as represented in the following exhibits:
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Figure 3: Optimal Mix by Technology
The conceptual aspects of the selection of technology and their optimal mix are
clear, but in the master planning exercise there are additional factors of complexity
that demand an additional effort to the planner.
1) The screening curve is dynamic if the price of fuels change along the horizon of
study.
2) The shape of the demand curve may change along the study period.
3) The appropriate mix depends on the average of the present value of the contribution
of each technology in each period of study.
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4) The selection of the appropriate contribution of each technology and the time of
installation in the master planning exercise shall consider the expected evolution of
the price of fuels.
5) Future price of fuels is not a deterministic scenario, its incertitude shall be
incorporated by alternative scenarios of fuel price.
20. Fuel prices in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning

The Consultant found the following characteristics in the implementation of the fuel
prices for the definition of the Preliminary Master Plan.
1) The Prices of fuels are considered fixed for all the period of study.
2) No consideration in regard to the variation of prices of fuel during the study period
and their incertitude is included in the preliminary plan.
3) A basic analysis of availability and sources/origin of the fuel is presented in the
report, but the link of this study with the different markets of fuel trading and mix of
origin is not clear.
4) The fuels cost in the existing plants consider a very complex differentiation pattern
among plants, it is not clear the structure of this difference.
5) The similarity of the prices of fuel for expansion plants contrast with the complex
differentiation of prices of fuel in the existing plants. (Seems a break of the fuel
market between existing and future)
6) Existing plants of same technology and fuel appears with a very high Price of fuel,
most probably reflexing a financial price instead of an economic cost. (The
appropriateness of this implementation depends on whether the fuel is imported or
national).

of fuel prices
The Consultant suggests the following recommendations in to assess and mitigate the weak
aspects of the implementation of the fuel prices in the master plan.
1) Perform a deeper analysis of forecasting fuel origin, market and prices including a
reference scenario and alternative scenarios to characterize the future incertitude
on the prices.
2) Repeat the WASP optimization with sensitivities on fuel prices in order to assess the
structural impact of the variation of the price on the development of the generation
system.
3) Review the conceptual implementation of the fuel prices to ensure the

implementation according to economic prices instead of financial prices. The
consideration of financial prices may distort the actual opportunity of the expansion.
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22. Generation reliability in Preliminary T&D Plan

23. Generation reliability for Planning purposes
Generation reliability is a key point for definition of the generation expansion needs,
the main aspects that underline this importance are the following:
1) The outage rate decrease the effective generation capacity in the power system and
the capability of attend the demand.
2) The generation system shall be capable to supply the demand even during a
scenery of generation contingency (forced outage) of generation plants.
3) The LOLP use to be defined as part of the planning framework as a signal of the
reliability required by the society (regulator & customers).
4) Almost always the achievement of the LOLP target demand the installation of
additional generation capacity and consequently more cost tan the required for the
basic balance between supply and load shedding.
5) The transmission system shall be able to conduct in safe conditions the flows of
energy even on generation contingency. (forced outage).
6) The master planner shall:
a. characterize appropriately the reliability of the generation plants, and
b. introduce the expansion rules to ensure enough spare generation capacity
to compensate the contingencies.
24. Integration of generation reliability in the Sumatra

Preliminary Planning
The Consultant found the following characteristics in the implementation of the
generation reliability for the definition of the Preliminary Master Plan.
1) The characterization of the reliability of generations plant is considered in the

preliminary master plan for both the forced outage and the maintenance programs
for the plants.
2) The maintenance programs are fixed along the period of analysis.
3) There is no integration of required overhauls in the generation plants during their

live cycle.
4) The generation plan is accounting a reserve margin of 44 % at the beginning of the

study and in the level of 35% by the end of the study period. It is not clear the
justification of this big spare capacity.
5) As a consequence of the big spare capacity the values of LOLP becomes too small
than the target reliability.
6) The LOLP lower than the target addresses an over investment of generation
capacity regarding the parameters of the planning framework (likely an inefficient
use of resources).
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7) The incorporation of a safety margin of 15% of stare capacity to compensate delays

in the commissioning of the generation plants introduce a big distortion of the
economic consistence of the plan. The result is an over investment and low marginal
cost, but the real system will not have the low marginal cost because construction
plants will be delay.
8) The transmission plan not assess its capability and performance under generation
outages.

of generation reliability
The Consultant suggests the following recommendations in to assess and mitigate the weak
aspects of the implementation of the generation reliability in the master plan.
1) Perform either a probabilistic or heuristic assessment of the required generation

margin, (recommendation: Assessment of equivalent generation decreasing by
combination of fault of the biggest plant in combination of any other plant).
2) Review the generation plan including only the installation of spare capacity required
to satisfy the LOLP and the generation mix on size and time to the economic
efficiency.
3) Retire the criteria of systematic advance of investments in order to compensates the
delay of commissioning of plants, the master plan must be set as efficient as
possible and the operative problems of implementation managed during the
implementation of the investments program.
26. Carbon targets and pollution in Preliminary T&D

Plan
27. Carbon targets for Planning purposes
CO2 and pollution is a key point for definition of the generation expansion needs,
the main aspects that underline this importance are the following:
RES are able to deliver a range of benefits:

Some of these may be priced in markets ...
o Reduction in CO2 and other GHG emissions
o Reduction in pollutant (SOx, NOx, PM) emissions
... others are not
o Reduction of external energy dependency
o Improvement in security of supply
Others goes out of the power system performance
o Promotion of research, technological development
o and employment in new technology sectors
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There are also some inconveniences linked to the integration of RE in the power
system, intermittent generation demands to the PS:
Local Impact
o Modifies power flows and voltages
o Protection schemes and contribution to faults
o Wave quality
o New construction and repowering of lines and substations
Global impact
o Transient stability
o Fault-ride-through capability
System recovery after fault
Voltage control
Frequency-power regulation
Influence on the generation schedules
o Forecast errors =>higher use of balancing markets and ancillary services
o Replaces other generators => reduction of ancillary resources
o Distributed generation => more difficult operation of the system
Environmental policy is there to compensate what the market is not able to reflect about
pollution and environmental.
1) Markets typically do not adequately price environmental goods or damages

2) The agents:
a. behave rationally in response to market price signals
b. Do not take consideration of the impact of their behavior on the environment
3) Environmental policies are aimed at redressing these failures, by:
a. directly imposing an environmentally-sensible behavior
b. Internalization of externalities; artificially creating prices for environmental
goods and damages
The security of supply is one of the relevant aspects of the integration of RE in the
power system.
1) Energy Supply in several countries depends on imported fossil fuels
a. Volatile
b. Sensitive to market power exercise (OPEP)
c. Risks on supply interruption because of international conflicts
2) Market participants
a. behave rationally in response to market price signals
b. do not take due consideration risks linked to high dependence on
3) Security of Supply policies are aimed at redressing these failures, by ensuring a
minimum participation of local sources of energy.
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The following figure shows that the private costs the marginal social costs and
benefits use to converge in a point of more les participation of the RE than the
convergence of the social costs and benefits.
The RE integration policy aims to compensate this discrepancy between the efficient
market and the efficient economy. This is a result of the high component of
externalities in both costs and benefits regarding the integration of RE in the power
system.
The social cost and benefits includes all the aspects and externalities than the
private agents are not considering in their decisions.
Sonner than later the society and the regulators will ask for the appropriate
integration of the RE in the PS trying to achieve the point that maximize the social
benefit and minimizing the impact or distortion of the market performance.
As a conclusion, the Master Planer shall define a realistic scenario of RE integration

further than the participation that the market equilibrium address.
28. Carbon targets in the Sumatra Preliminary

Planning
The Consultant found the following characteristics in the implementation of the RE
integration for the definition of the Preliminary Master Plan.
1) No cost for the CO2 and other pollution factors is considering within the operative
plants of conventional generation.
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2) Is not clear the fraction of forced Geothermic and hydro generation as part of the
environmental and RE integration policy. (7.233 MW hydro and 9.537 MW Geo)
3) It is accounting the total of the hydro and geothermic expansion as a measure of

contrasts the carbon emissions.
4) IT Is not clear the over cost of the proposed investment plan of RE against the
market efficient scenario.

in carbon and pollution targets
The Consultant suggests the following recommendations to assess and mitigate the weak
aspects of the implementation of the carbon and pollution targets in the master plan.
1) Evaluate the CO2 emission of the conventional generation technologies in order to

estimate the environmental impact.
2) Review the generation mix including the cost of CO2 in the variable cost of
generation.
3) Establish an expansion scenario considering emission costs and evaluate the

convenience of its inclusion as an alternative mid-long term expansion scenario for
purposes of economic evaluation of the Master Plan.
4) Define specific decision gates regarding the RE integration policy for review the G&T
Master Plan.
30. Economic Vs Financial in Preliminary T&D Plan

31. Economic Vs Financial for Planning purposes
In general terms the expansion plan shall be driven by the economic efficiency, but
very often there is a misunderstanding on the difference between the economic and
the financial decisions.
This mistake has been increased since the energy market and private participation
was located in the center of the PS development.
Key elements for understanding the planning paradigm are the following:
1) The power sector is a driver of the economic development of the economy of a

country.
2) Economic efficiency of the power sector is a must as requirement of startup and
push up the economic development of a country.
3) The private participation is open in order to help the efficient development of the
power sector (the power sector is not there to improve the private sector).
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So, the participation of the private initiatives in the development of the power sector
aims to contribute to the development of an economic efficient development.
To achieve this target, the private participation shall be incentivized but limited to
those sectors in which their financial success complement the economic efficiency
of the power sector.
Trading mechanisms as PPAs, single buyer, electricity market etc., are different
grades of sophistication in the participation of private entities. But if the incentives
and regulation are correct, the trend shall lead to the economic optimal of the power
system.
It is a mistake to consider financial evaluation for master planning purposes due

that:
1) The aim of the master planning is the economic efficient development of the system.
2) The central assumption about the participation of the private initiative in the power
system is to help the economic efficiency of the system.
3) The paradigm of the private trading and free market is that the transactions drive the
economic efficiency.
4) In those specific cases that the trading rules or the market are not able to reflex the
economic efficiency the state shall intervene to help the achievement of the
economic efficiency.
32. Economic Vs Financial in the Sumatra Preliminary

Planning.
The Consultant found the following characteristics in the implementation of the
Preliminary Master Plan regarding the differentiation of economic and financial
aspects.
1) It is no clear that the variable cost of the existing plants is reflecting their
economic costs (shadow prices) instead of the commercial agreement in force.
2) Existing plants with same technology and fuel but with a very different
operative cost seems the integration of commercial prices in the model instead
of economic prices.
3) For imported energy or emergency supply by mean of temporal installations

the commercial costs are suitable for the economic model. (non-structural
plants and energy generated with no-local resources)
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in the implementation of economic and financial
costs
The Consultant suggests the following recommendations to ensure the appropriate
implementation of the financial values into the expansion plan:
1) Revie and ensure that none of the structural plants of the system are including
commercial prices of energy instead of economic costs of energy.
2) Verify that in case of use commercial cost of energy this is used either for imported
energy or for emergency plants not structurally part of the system.
3) Verify that the generators with PPAs or similar commercial agreements are
implemented in the study at economic costs instead of commercial costs.
34. Relationship among key aspects in Preliminary

T&D Plan
Master planning is a multi-disciplinary task and its complexity is caused because the
close relationship of each aspect with the others, the assumptions and scenarios
defined for one of the parameters or elements of the study, highly impact in the
adjustment of the other elements of the system accordingly.
The following are some of the relevant combinations of parameters that the
Consultant found in the review of the Preliminary Expansion Plan:
35. Demand behavior & generation mix
As mentioned, the mater planning includes the consideration of in whish regime the
forecasted demand will be supply.
It is a relevant impact on the generation mix regarding the fraction of the demand
that will be self-supply in this case, clearly the capacity of generation must change
this part of the demand to be supply by peak plants tan for base generation, due
that the system will continue supporting this customer but just in contingency or
sporadic periods of time.
It is not efficient to keep installing generation plants to supply the self-supplied

demand in other technology than peak plants.
No explicit assumption about the self-supply or cogeneration brings:

an over investment in base generation and under investment in peak generation
Over estimates of the total generation capacity to be installed.
36. Distributed Vs. Central generation:
The installation of co-generation, self-supply and domestic and commercial

distributed generation impact not only the characteristics of the generation mix, as
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explained previously, but also the performance and expansion needs of the
transmission system.
The needs of transmission network to work in permanent regime transferring energy

among regions or zones becomes lower if part of the energy is generated locally.
So, the implemented scenery of distributed generation modifies the results of the
expansion of transmission system.
No explicit assumption about distributed generation results in:

Over installation of transmission facilities for operation in permanent regime.
Grong economic signals on nodal cost and drivers for network reinforcements.
Non-adaptation of the transmission network to the energy flows.
37. Fuel cost Vs. generation and transmission

expansion.
The implemented scenario and incertitude on fuel cost drives the efficient generation
mix as well as the nodal marginal cost that drives the expansion of the transmission
network.
Un realistic scenario of fuel cost implemented in the master planning results in:
1) Unrealistic operative cost and marginal cost of the energy in both the system and
local/nodal level.
2) Fault in the economic evaluation of the proposed generation plants: The final
evaluation and the economic efficiency of a generation plant is the opportunity of its
energy at the marginal cost, if the marginal cost is wrong the economic and financial
justification and evaluation is wrong.
3) Fault in economic evaluation of the proposed transmission facilities; The final
evaluation and the economic efficiency of a transmission facility is the opportunity
of its energy transferred at the difference of marginal cost in its terminals, if the
marginal cost is wrong the economic and financial justification and evaluation is
wrong.
38. Generation reliability Vs. expansion.
The implemented scenario of reliability defines the effective generation capacity

available to attend the energy and capacity of the demand along the study period.
The main consequence of an overvalue in the characterization of the reliability of

the generation plants is an over investment in generation plants.
A realistic scenario of maintenance and characterization of the forced outages of the

generation system allows an appropriate estimation of the required expansion in
order to:
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1) Estimate the optimal technological mix including the effective generation capacity of
each plant, and the equivalent increase of CAEX per technology by effective
capacity.
2) Evaluate the needs of additional peak generation in order to ensure the supply of
the peak demand according to the required security parameters (LOLP).
3) An allocation of generation more than enough to supply the demand and ensure
delivery during outages produce:
a. and over offer of generation and decreasing of the energy prices,
b. brings financial risk to the sector and
c. over costs to the client because economic inefficiencies.
4) Effect on transmission network for over investments in generation may cause one
of the two following scenarios:
a. Increase of the needs of transfer energy because the surplus of generation
in a region must be transfer to the rest of the system. (over cost in
transmission expansion)
b. Decrease of transmission needs because all the regions have generation
surplus so the needs of transfer energy among the region decrease.
39. Carbon & Pollution targets Vs. expansion.
The incorporation of targets of carbon and pollution in the have social and economic
benefits that go further to the power sector, but:
1) Affect the performance of the operation and cost of the system impacting the
financial aspects of the expansion plan.
a. Hydro power use to have a level of manageability, under assumption of
economic behavior they are not impacting the financial pattern of the other
plants of the system.
b. Wind, solar and other intermittent/non-manageable sources impact the
financial pattern of the other plants of the system. The immediate effect is a
switching of part of the base generation onto peak generation.
2) Some of the RE plants are economic-efficient even in the conventional and private
paradigm of evaluation, so not all the RE projects may be considered as carbon
mitigation projects.
40. Evaluation of the results of the Preliminary

Generation Plan:
41. Base Case
The Preliminary Master Plan Includes the following Generation Plan
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The balance of Generation Capacity Vs peak demand is the following.

Figure 4: Installed Capacity Vs Peak Load
It is relevant to note that:
1) the coal technology covers the big part of the expansion in generation
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2) Up to the year 2025 the gas technology is supporting the supply of the demand in
the peak.
3) After 2025, the gas technology contribution becomes systematically lower about its
contribution in the peak, it is even lower or null its contribution during non-peak load.
The simulations made by the consultant show that the utilization factor of the gas generators
is bigger than 20% up to 2025. But after that the participation is marginal.
The following diagrams show the participation of the gas plants during the generation study
and the correspondent marginal cost of the system foreseen for the study period.
Figure 5: Plant Factor for CCGT

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Figure 6: Marginal Costs of the System
Finally, the following graph shows the marginal contribution of the CCGT plants to the
supply of the total energy of the system during the studied period.
Figure 7: Generation Dispatch

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It seems that the generation plan considers a very conservative margin for reserve for the
foreseen needs of the system.
The consultant analyzed alternative sceneries of expansion to estimates the required

expansion considering different parameters of the expansion framework:
42. Alternative 1: Peak coverage, Optimal mix:
As a reference alternative, an expansion scenario has been developed with no generation

margin just to take a lower scenery of expansion, non-operative, but useful to show the
optimal mix and structure of the expansion.
The following graph shows the result of this expansion scenario:

Figure 8: Expansion with no generation margin
The installed capacity is 20 GW lower than the proposed expansion and the contribution of
the coal technology is also about 20 GW less.
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Figure 9: Marginal Cost- Expansion without operative margin
The previous graph shows that the marginal costs of the power system are systematically
between the cost of the combined cycle and the gas turbine, this is a signal of contribution
of all the technologies to the supply.
The following graph shows that the gas plants effectively participate in a relevant part in the
generation of energy.
Figure 10: Generation Dispatch - Expansion without operative margin

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Using this ideal expansion mix as a reference of comparison is it possible to review the
results of other expansion alternatives more realistic in order to compare the results with
the expansion proposed in the preliminary expansion plan of Sumatra.
43. Alternative 2: PLN Margin (43%):

Initially the consultant produced a generation plan considering the same capacity margin
that these considered in the Preliminary Plan.
The following diagram show that, as expected, that the total installed capacity is the same
than the proposal of the preliminary plan, but the technical mix increase the participation of
the natural gas technologies.
In the other side, it is worthy to note the proposed capacity of coal remain similar than the
proposed in the ideal case and lower than in the Preliminary Plan.
Figure 11: Review of generation MIX - Same Expansion Margin
44. Alternative 3: CO2 cost:

Another alternative of the expansion framework to analyze is the case of integration of
carbon and pollution costs in the generation costs.
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Figure 12: Expansion MIX with CO2 Cost
The result of the previous graph shows that the technical mix keep the same participation
of the Gas technologies, but replace 1000 MW of coal plants by geothermal
45. Alternative 4: Increase of Fuel prices:

Finally, it is relevant the assessment of the impact of the change of the fuel costs in the mix
of the generation.
The results of this expansion scenario present an increase of the participation of the coal in
the generation MIX up to the gas generation produce the marginal equilibrium
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Figure 13: Generation Mix including Fuel prices increment along the study period
70000
60000
50000
40000
MW
30000
20000
10000
0
Base Case Case 1 Case 1 AP Case 1 + Emi Case 1 AP Dec
Fuel
GEO PLTU PLTGU PLTG
46. Evaluation of the Planning framework and

approach of the Preliminary Transmission Plan:
Thera are three main aspects in the definition of the planning framework of a Transmission
Master Plan:
1) Selection of approach of planning related to the generation plan.
2) Selection of addition or retirement of levels of voltage in the system.
3) Triggers of expansion of substations needs and scope of the evaluation of the

expanded units
In the following section will be analyzed each of these aspects included for each of them:
Explanation of each of the subjects and its implications in the definition of the
Characterization of the way each of the aspects has been considered in the
Preliminary Master Plan of Sumatra.
Suggestions and recommendations in the improvement of the consideration of

each subject in the Master Plan of Sumatra system.
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47. Selection of approach of planning related to the

generation plan.
48. Understanding the two planning approaches
There are two approach for the definition of a Transmission Master Plan. The transmission
network should either:
Be developed together with generation plants as a completed system or
Be developed to transport the energy from generator to loads.
The selection of one of the approaches is not trivial, in general the selection depends on
the structure of the Power system under study as follows:
Case 1: Long distances, dense but separated loads points: Transmission and
generation development together, each new facility could change decisions regarded both
generation and transmission development.
New plants and lines are defined to meet zone demand and economically provide
energy exchanges among the system zones.
New lines are decided to transfer energy between zones, improve the
complementarities in resources, economies of scale and save expensive resources
up to the level of economic efficiency.
In a regional planning the Screening method over candidate plants is almost

impossible to be used as the average or standard performance of one power
plant does not exist.
Case 2: Evenly spread loads, strong transmission network: Transmission development

as a complementary result of the generation plan, the driver is the generation master plan.
New pants to meet the demand as a whole.
New lines to avoid bottlenecks and minimize the differences in nodal prices.
Screening method over candidate plants can be used.
The selection of one of other method defines the difference between the optimization of the
power system as a whole or the optimization of the generation system and definition of the
transmission system to complement the generation plan.
Since the theoretical point of view the optimization of G&T aims to get an optimal expansion
but the optimization of the G and complement with the transmission is only able to achieve
a suboptimal expansion.
In the practices the Optimal expansion of the G&T together is not possible due to the
characteristics of the system, the characteristics of the expansion units and the dimension
of the mathematical problem:
1) The characteristics of the system: The regular approach is that two or more
systems join into one bigger in order to complement each to the other. But systems
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with big differences among regions because either the size of the systems or
technical characteristics of generation technologies or adaptation of the network to
the demand not produce the complementation between systems but the domination
of one system over the second.
Very often the optimization program dismisses the local performance of each of the
regions against the improvement of the optimal global but in case of one system
dominating the other the global indicators improve because the improvement of the
performance of the principal region but decreasing the indicators of the dominated
region.
Is in the responsibility of the Planner and his experience the implementation of some
constraints or verifications during the planning process in order to ensure that none
of the region is acting as a dominant region over other.
2) The characteristics of the expansion units: Generation and transmission units

are discrete elements, due to that incremental costs of transmission may create
oscillations around the optimal decision that the programs use to solve by heuristics
instead to the optimal.
Decisions of very spall plants or lines regarding the size of the system use to be sub
optimal results in the accuracy gap of the program instead of real optimal decisions.
Is in the responsibility of the planner to assess the impact of the characteristics of

the expansion units against the achievement of the optimal and define planning
strategies that mitigate the impact.
3) Dimension of the mathematical problem: The optimization of the expansion of

G&T is a very demanded program with millions of variables to be decided, the
optimization methods currently in use are only useful after many simplifications of
the actual planning problem, so there is an open discussion regarding the two
unconceivable options either solve exactly a nonrealistic problem or provide a proxy-
solution (inaccurate) to the real problem.
The practical implications of these factors are that the Planning Process keep being in the
responsibilities and expertise of the planner and whatever available computational tool is
an additional support for his work. But despite the promises of amazing advance in IT
technology in the past decade, nowadays the criteria still is that the planner is recovering
the position of driving the plan.
49. Approach of planning considered in the

Preliminary Master Plan of Sumatra
The approach of planning used in the development of the Preliminary Master Plan of
Sumatra is develop the transmission network following the decided generation expansion
plan. Some of the specific characteristics of the implemented approach are:
1) PLNE has not computational tools to perform the integral G&T expansion
optimization, so as a technical constraint the used approach is appropriate.
2) In the performed analysis, the definition of the EHV backbone seems defined as an
input, there is no clear explanation of the process and method of decision of the
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size, quantities and timing of the 500 KV line. No analysis of alternatives is

consigned.
3) The subtransmission transmission has been decided to complement the decided

backbone at 500 kV.
4) The decision of expansion facilities depends of the yearly analysis of power flows,
is not clear that each facility was decided per a multi-year criteria.
5) The expansion based on a yearly base dismiss the opportunity of take advantage of
the scale and network economies very relevant in transmission network.
50. Suggestions and recommendations about the

planning approach in the Master Plan of Sumatra
system.
The use of the power flows to analyze proposals of expansion is suitable, but the temporal
approach of forward expansion (define facilities as the time is passing) use to produce more
de-adapted networks in the long term than the backward approach.
It is advised to implement a backward method instead of a forward expansion approach:

set from green field the definition of an adapted-transmission network in 2045 and after the
definition of the target network in the long term go backward in steps of 5 years each
analyzing which of the required infrastructures in the long term are necessary each period.
51. Selection of addition or retirement of levels of

voltage in the system.
52. Understanding the change of voltage level
The addition of a voltage level in the transmission system is a main factor of fully
restructuration of the existing network. Main elements of the addition of a new voltage level
are the following:
1) The combination of distance and energy to be transferred suffered a change of

structure: As the rate between energy transfer and distance grows the energy losses
and synchronization aspects become unsustainable and finally an increase off
voltage level must be implemented.
2) The structure of transferred of energy among regions increase: if the energy

exchanges among regions change the amounts of energy use to exceed the
capacity of the system. The use of a higher level of voltage for similar distances
allows a bigger transfer of energy.
3) The interconnection of distant subsystems is to be done: When two or more

subsystems are merged use to require both the transfer of energy for long distances
and the increase of the energy exchanges depending of few interconnection
substations. To satisfy the new requirements the increase of the voltage level use
to be the suitable solution.
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53. Change of voltage considered in the Preliminary

Master Plan of Sumatra
In the Preliminary transmission plan is including the installation of transmission facilities of
550 KV in the Sumatra system. This is a new voltage level in the system characterized by
the following aspects:
1) The new transmission line of 500 kV will become since the beginning the
backbone of the transmission corridor in the system.
2) The New 500 KV line will mobilize up to 1600 MW of energy in a single

transmission structure. (500 kW line, four circuits in the same structure)
3) No redundancy, and rings at 500 kV level is foreseen along the 30 years of

expansion analysis.
4) In the practice, there is a parallel system between the 500 KV and 275 KV
transmission corridors.
5) The infrastructures of 150 kV level becomes sub transmission elements mainly for
delivery purposes than for transfer energy.

inclusion of 500 KV level in the Master Plan of
Sumatra system.
The incorporation of 500 kV level in the system is well justified and appropriate. The
consultant found that the size, configuration and topology may be reviewed to improve the
reliability of the system and operative aspects.
1) It is not clear if in addition to the new line at 500 kV, the renovation and upgrade of
220 KV facilities to 500 KV has been studied as alternative to reinforce the new
500 kV.
2) At least partial split of the transmission line of 500kV into parallel lines nay be
considered.
3) Sequential integration of the capacity of the system by gradual installation of the

four circuits may be analyzed.
4) The alternative of upgrade of part of the existing 250 kV to 500 KV may be

evaluated as the achievement of similar transmission capacity at 500 KV level but
improving the nesting and reliability of the system.
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55. Triggers of expansion of substations and scope

of the evaluation
56. Understanding the trigger of expansion needs
The decision of the need of a new substation must respond to the notice in advance of the
consumption of the spare capacity of transformation and the decision of either transfer load
to a substation in the neighbor or build a new substation.
1) The consumption of the existing capacity of a substation use to be defined for the
achievement of a percentage of the installed capacity (around 75%).
2) Once consumed the spare capacity of a substation, it is required to decide the way
to supply the foreseen needs of capacity exhausted in the existing substation.
There are two main alternatives:
a. Re allocate the load to other substations in the neighbor zone
b. Build a new substation that relax the transmission system in the zone.
The selection of one or other alternative highly depends on the characterization of

the saturation curve of load of the substations and the dynamic of the demand
density in the served zone.
57. Triger of expansion of Substations in the

Preliminary Master Plan of Sumatra
In the Preliminary Master Plan in Sumatra has been defined the criteria of trigger the
expansion of a new substation because the achievement of the 70% of the capacity of the
regular substations and 80% in case of high dense cities:
1) It is not clear if the alternative of reallocate the load to other substations has been
analyzed.
2) In Transmission and sub transmission in big cities the transform capacity has double
function, deliver the load to the MV level and, support the HV level and act as back
up in case of fault of 500 kV or 250 kV lines. So the expansion shall be also analyzed
for change energy transfer among voltage levels.
3) The characterization of the saturation curve of the substations and the evolution of
the load density in the substation areas is not considered to decide the size and
location of the new substations.
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Trigger of expansion of Substations in the Master
Plan of Sumatra system.
1) The decision of the location and opportunity of new substations must be analyzed
because the supply of the load and because the support and exchange energy flows
during contingency.
2) The renovation and/or upgrade the voltage level of the current 275 substations in
the corridor at 275 kV may be analyzed to review the topology of the proposed 500
KV system.
The characterization of the load saturation curve of the transmission and sub transmission
substations is a key factor for decision on investment at sub transmission level.
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6.4. Analysis of reliability of the transmission master plan

1. Performed analysis:
The consultant was required to analyze the capability of the system to continue the
operation with no load shedding under one single contingency of the following cases.
1) Faults in all the lines at 500 KV level.
2) Faults in the 5 more critical lines in 275 kV, the consultant simulated faults in all
the 275 kV lines of the backbone of the energy corridors.
3) Forced outage of the biggest generation plant of the system.
2. Period up to 2021:
According to the performed analysis for the period up to the year 2021 the system is able
to support the N-1 condition with specific violations of limits under singular contingencies.
In specific, during the year 2019, the corridor South-North at 275 kV is the component of
the system that shows sensitive overloads as follows:
1) In case of the fault of one of the circuits of the double circuit line between the
nodes 26002 [PSDEM 275] TO BUS 26003 [SRULA 275] the circuit that continues
in operation will present an overload of 8.3%.
2) In case of the fault of one of the circuits of the double circuit line between the
nodes 26002 [PSDEM 275] TO BUS 36000 [PYKBH 275] the circuit that continues
in operation will present an overload of 4.3%.
3) None of these situations drives a credible situation of load shedding or operative

risk.
For the year 2020, no relevant overloads have been detected in the system of the analyzed
contingencies.
It is the criteria of the Consultant that for planning purposes this result is satisfactory due to:
In operative practices the operator has more resources for balance the system
than those simulated and
It is relevant to remind that the contingency analysis considered the operation of

the system during the year peak load, the short duration of the yearly peak load,
reduces the probability of occurrence of the described specific contingencies along
the year.
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It is foreseen that in the rest of the year the system operates in a more relaxed
point and bigger margin to reconduct the energy flows in case of contingency
without overload of the system elements.
3. Period 2022 - 2025:

4. Base case east corridor at 500 kV:
The base case of the expansion plan considers one 500 kV corridor by the east side of
Sumatra from South to North along the island.
The integration of the 500kV corridor is demanding a sophisticated operation scheme. The
consultant couldnt find an operative point able to support all the required contingencies
without relevant violation of the operative limits.
Considering the installation of the line reactors proposed by the local team it was found that
only three elements of the systems are subject to overloads during this period as follows:
1) No lines result overloaded because the considered contingencies.
2) Only the transformers of three substations shown any overload during this period.
Transformers:
a. KRSAN 275/150 kV: This substation presented a maximum overload of

17.6% of the nominal capacity of the transformer, the transformers presented
systematic overloads during 237 cases among the analyzed contingencies.
Considering that the overload is systematic is the opinion of the Consultant

that a review of the size of the transformers from 250 MVA to 300 MVA may
be suitable.
b. KNTEN 275/150 kV: This substation presented a maximum overload of

15.7% of the nominal capacity of the transformers, the transformer
presented systematic overloads during 231 cases among the analyzed
contingencies.
Considering that the overload is systematic is the opinion of the Consultant

that a review of the size of the transformers from 250 MVA to 300 MVA may
be suitable.
c. PRWANG 500/275 kV: This substation includes two transformers 500/275

kV 500 MVA each, the transformers present a maximum overload of 23.8%
of their nominal capacity, the mentioned overloads happen just in case of the
fault of one of the two transformers, in this situation a single transformer is
supporting the full operation of the substation but over its nominal capacity.
Considering that the overload is not systematic, only appears in one single
contingency case among cents of analyzed cases, and this case occurs
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during the yearly peak load supply, it is the opinion of the Consultant that no
review of the size and configuration of the substation is needed and just a
recommendation of increase of the running reserve during the peak load
operation is suitable in order to reorganize the flows of energy in case of fault
and quickly overcome a transitory overload of the operative transformer in
case of the fault of the twin transformer in the substation.
5. Alternative case double corridor at 500 kV:

During the meeting held the 19th of June in the premises of P3BS in Pekanbaru, it was
required by the beneficiary and agreed to analyze an alternative case of the archiitecture of
the HV transmission network as follows:
1) Consider a corridor of 500 kV along the west side of the power system.
(Double circuit). The parallel of two corridors of 500 kV along the island becomes
the backbone of the transmission system of the island.
2) The corridor of 275 kV south north shall be sectionalized in order to

prevent parallel operation of two voltage level corridors. The 275 kV system is
transformed from an inter-regional backbone across Sumatra into several regional
sub transmission systems.
3) The following figure shows the proposed architecture of the double corridor
scheme.
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Figure 14: Main architecture of the alternative 500 and 275 kV backbone
The simulations of contingency analysis show neither overload nor voltage problems in case
of single fault in the system.
Clearly the double corridor represents a stronger transmission configuration than the
proposal of the base case.
6. Period 2026 - 2030:

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After 2025, the clear definition of the direction of the load flows from south to north of the
island, either in normal operation and under contingency, facilitate the definition of a safe
operative point.
The expansion of generation spread along the power system increase the robustness of the
Power System and its capabilities of reconduct the power flows without overloads in the
system or load shedding.
7. Base case of analysis:

The base case of the expansion plan considers one 500 kV corridor by the east side of
Sumatra from South to North along the island.
The simulations of contingency analysis shown neither overload nor voltage problems in
case of single fault in the system.
In the opinion of the Consultant minor violations of the limits are results of mistakes in the
implementation values of the model instead of structural deficiencies of the system, the
modeling must be fine-tuning for more detailed analysis.

An alternative case of the architecture of the HV transmission network with a second
corridor of 500 kV along the west side of the power system. The parallel of two corridors of
500 kV along the island becomes the backbone of the transmission system of the island.
The simulations of contingency analysis shown neither overload nor voltage problems in
case of single fault in the system.
In the opinion of the Consultant minor violations of the limits are results of mistakes in the
implementation values of the model instead of structural deficiencies of the system, the
modeling must be fine-tuning for more detailed analysis.
9. Beyond 2030:
The available model of the power system for the years after 2030 includes relevant
deficiencies in the steady state model. These deficiencies of the model prevented the
consecution of an operative point 100% safe. Some alternatives of dispatch shown better
performance but none of these fully acceptable under the operative criteria.
It is the opinion of the Consultant that a detailed review of the implemented model is required
in order to objective evaluate the robustness of the system regarding the simple fault.
6.5. Analysis of the voltage stability of the power system for the
proposed transmission master plan
The voltage stability is the capacity of the power system of maintain the voltage levels
stables after a disturbance in a stable operative mode.
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The instability may appear as a progressive increase or decrease of voltage in some of the
system busses. For the effective control of the voltage level in order to inject or retire
reactive power aiming to control of the voltage in all the nodes of the system.
The voltage collapse is the process in which the sequence of events following the voltage
instability drives a black out of the system or abnormal low levels of voltage in a part of the
system.
Some of the factors that cause the voltage instability are the follow:
Increase or excess of load in the system.
Long distances between load and generation.
Reconnection of load by transformer taps.
Insufficient reactive compensation in the system.
Unbalancing of load and generation after a disturbance.
The consultant was required to assess voltage stability of the system in the proposed
scenario of expansion. The assessment will be done by mean of the PV curve analysis of
the power system along the expansion period.
According to the performed analysis for the period up to the year 2021 the system Increases
its voltage stability during the period due to the increasing of the generation resources and
the new investments in transmission.
The simulations show that the power system is able to find a stable operative point far away
of the collapse point, with a margin of increase the power supply in around 500 MW in 2017
and 800 MW in 2020 before than enter in the situation of collapse of voltage.
The following figures illustrate the described situation.

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PV Curve - 2017
1.010
1.000
0.990
0.980
Voltage (P.U)
0.970
0.960
0.950
0.940
0.930
0.920
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Incremental MW
A1-BTEGI G-FSRU LMPG
3. Period 2022 to 2025:

As mentioned in the analysis of the reliability the Consultant was required to analyze two
expansion scenarios one considering a single corridor at 500 kV level by the east side of
the island and the second scenario considering the installation of a double corridor of 500
kV running in parallel by the east and west side of the island.
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4. Base case east corridor at 500 kV:

According to the performed analysis for the period 2022 to 2025 the system Increases its
voltage stability.
The simulations show that in 2025 the power system is able to operate in a point far away
of the collapse point, with a margin of increase the power supply in around 3500 MW before
than enter in the situation of collapse of voltage.
According to the performed analysis for the period 2022 to 2025 the system Increases its
voltage stability.
The simulations show that in 2025 the power system is able to operate in a point far away
of the collapse point, with a margin of increase the power supply in around 4500 MW before
than enter in the situation of collapse of voltage.

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6. Period 2026 to 2030:

The Consultant analyzed the voltage stability in both the base case and the alternative case,
in both of theme the big margin of generation capacity installed in the system provides a
very relaxed margin of operation to provide voltage stability by injection of the required
active and reactive energy.
The following figure illustrates the described situation, the reader may note that the
simulations show an operative margin of more than 14000 MW before than enter in the
zone of collapse of voltage, this is a nonrealistic situation and only address that the system
is very robust regarding voltage stability.
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7. Beyond 2030:
deficiencies in the steady state model. These deficiencies of the model prevented the
consecution of an operative point stable to performed the voltage stability analysis.
in order to objective evaluate the robustness of the system regarding the voltage stability.
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6.6. Analysis of the dynamic stability of the power system for the proposed
The dynamic stability is the capacity of the power system of recover the stability of voltage
and frequency after a disturbance that happens in a stable operative mode.
The dynamic instability may appear after relevant disturbance in the system, very often a
fault of a relevant line in the system or the outage of a big generator may cause a
disturbance in the system that demand the operation of the elements of control of stability.
For the effective control of the stability the operation of the governors of the generators in
order to immediately recover the balance between primary and electrical energy and drive
back the system to the standard operative levels of frequency and voltage.
The consultant was required to analyze the dynamic stability of the power system during
the expansion period.
In order to maintain the effort and time of the analysis according to the dead line and
consultancy resources of the project, there was agreed the following criteria as frame of this
study.
1) The analysis will be focused in the stability of frequency and voltage of the power
system.
2) The dynamic model to be implemented includes the following elements:
a. The dynamic model of the generators will be specific per technology, and
selected among the catalogue of the PSSE software.
b. The governors implemented in the models will be specific by technology,

and selected among the catalogue of the PSSE software.
c. The dynamic reaction of the demand during transitory is constant MWA.
d. There will be set a minimum 10% of spinning reserve in each of the plants
in operation for purposes of operative reserve.
3) The contingencies to be considered for dynamic analysis are the following:
a. The simulations will be done for the peak load of the year.
b. Faults in, in 500 kV shall include the critical fault close to the node
47001 Perawan
c. Fault in the 275 kV shall include the critical fault close to the node 2601
Galang Bindai
d. Outage of the biggest generator in operation.

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4) The switching sequence for the transitory analysis will consider the following
cleaning sequences:
a. Full operation of the remote trigger.
i. Fault occurrence at T=0.
ii. Fault isolation by the opening of the line in both sides at T <= 90
ms at 500 kV or 100 ms at 275 kV.
iii. Reclose of the line at T 370 ms at 500 kV or 500 ms at 275 kV

after the beginning of the fault.
b. No operation of the remote trigger.
i. Fault occurrence at T=0.
ii. Opening of the CB of the line at the side of the fault at T <= 90
ms at 500 kV or 100 ms at 275 kV.
iii. Opening of the CB of the line at the second side of the line, and
isolation of the fault, T <= To be decided at 500 kV and 275 kV.
iv. Reclose of the line at T 370 msg at 500 kV or 500 msg at 275
kV after the beginning of the fault.
Fault 275kV line:
The following figures illustrates the performance of the system under the fault of the more
critical line of 275 kV with appropriate operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The frequency remains within the operative margins

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The angle of the machines recovers easily a stable operative mode.
The voltages of the system return to the operative limits almost immediatelly.
Fault 275kV line Fault in Tele Protection:
critical line of 275 kV with fault in the operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
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The angle of the machines recovers easily a stable operative mode.

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The voltages of the system return to the operative limits almost immediatelly.
Outage of main generator:
critical generator in the system.

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The angle of the machines achiev a diferent but stable operative mode.
Conclusion:
Is the opinion of the Consultant that for the short/mid-term the current program of
investments under implementation allow the operation of the system in a stable point
regarding the dynamic stability
3. Period 2022 - 2025:

4. Base case of analysis:
Fault 500kV line:
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The frequency remains within the standard limints.

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The electrical angle of the generators present differnet levels of transitory perturbance but
all of theme recover a stable operative mode.
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The voltage levels present a shots temporal fluctuation but the system recover the volatage
levels in araund three seconds.
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The frequency keeps within the operative limits along the occurrence of the disturbance.
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The electrical angle of the generators present differnet levels of transitory perturbance but
all of theme recover a stable operative mode.
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The voltage levels present a shots temporal fluctuation but the system recover the volatage
levels in araund three seconds.
Fault 275kV line:
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The frequency of the system remains very close to the standard

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The angles of the generators show certain level of transitory disturbance but their fluctuation
is small and after few seconds recover their stability.
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The voltage of the nodes suffer a very limited disturbance during few seconds but recover
the stability, the fluctuation during the disturbance is almost negligible.
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The frequency of the system remains very close to the standard

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The angles of the generators show certain level of transitory disturbance but their fluctuation
is small and after few seconds recover their stability.
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The voltage of the nodes suffers a very limited disturbance during few seconds but recover
the stability, the fluctuation during the disturbance is almost negligible.
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The outage of the critical generator of the system produce an smaal decrease of the
frequency almost negligible in practivcal terms.
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The electrical angle of the generators remains stable after the fault of the generator and
only a limited disturbance and change of operative point is appreciated in some of the
machines.
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The disturbance in the voltage level caused by the outage of the critical machine of the
system is almost negligible.

In case of the implementation od the double corridor of 500 kV in the PS the electrical
performance is illustrated by the following figures:
Fault 500kV line:
critical line of 500 kV with correct operation of the remote triger to clean the fault.
The frequency of the system suffers a limited variation during the disturbace and recovers
the reference value very softly.
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The electrical angles of the machines show diferent levels of fluctuation during the
disturbance, even the relevant range of the fluctuarion in some machines all of them recover
a stable operative state after few seconds.
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The disturbance in the voltage level caused by the fault in the critical 500 kV line of the
system is sensible during a short transitory period of around one second and after that
remains very limited.
It is noted that the frequency of the system remains close to the reference during the
disturbance.
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Some machines of the system suffer a relevant fluctuation of the operative angle, eventhoug
all the machines recover after 5 seconds a stable operative angle.
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The disturbance in the voltage level caused by the fault in the critical 500 kV line of the
system is sensible during a short transitory period of around one second and after that
remains very limited.
Fault 275kV line:
The frequency remains close the reference value during the disturbance and recover the
reference after two seconds.
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The electric angle of some the generators suffers diferent level of fluctuation,
some of theme present a ranve of variation around 10 degrees during the
the disturbance.
All the generators recover an stable aopartive angle after 5 second of the
beginning of the disturbance.
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The variation in the frequency remains close the reference value during the disturvance,
and recovers the efeence value after three seconds of the occurrence of the fault.
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In this case the range of the fluctuations becomes relevant during the initial 5 seconds after
the occurrence of the fault, some of theme reach an amplitude of 10 degrees in the variation.
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The machines finaly become stable and all of theme recover a steady opartive point.
The voltage level remains within the operative margin and the fluctuation of the voltage is
very smal during the disturbance.
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The outage of the critical generator of the system cause a small droop of the frequency
almost negligible for practical aspects.
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The electrical angle of the generators of the system suffer a moderated fluctuation during
the disturbance. All of the generators recover an stable operative point after three seconds
of the fult.
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The fluctuation of the voltage level is very limited and the final state shows a small droop
after the disturbance, almost negligible for practical aspects.
6. Conclusion:
1) According to the simulations the implementation of the single corridor of 500
kV along the island present a dynamic performance stable.
2) It is relevant to note that the system presents a transitory period of

sensible/significative fluctuations between the fault occurrence and the
recovering of the stability.
3) The presence of significative fluctuations in the frecuancy stability in the

simulations may represent in the practicse a loos of the sincronism of one or
some machines, this situation is dangerous for the operation of the system.
4) It must be notted that the simulations represent the operation of the system
during yearly peak load, it is expected that the operation out of peak provide
more flexibility to the operator in order to improve the stability of the system.
5) It is recommended the dispersion of the generation inyection during the peak

load in order to reduce the stress of the transmission system,
6) it is recommended that old machines remain operative to be used as reserve

during peak load.
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7. Period 2026 - 2030:

The deficiencies of the steady state model for this period made infeasible the preformence
of the analysis of the dynamis stability for th reference case of expansion (one corridor of
500 kV from south to north).
It is relevant to underline that in the opinion of the Consultant the unstability of the model
does not provide enough data to refuse the proposed expansion plan, our opinion is that
the problem is regarding the implementation of the model.
The Consultant performed a detail review of the model and after corrections achieved a
stable model for the alternative expansion case (Double corridor of 500 kV implemented in
the west and east side of the island).
The following figures illustrate the performance of the system under the analysied faults.
Fault 500kV line:
The frequency keeps close to the reference value during the disturbance.
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The machines suffer a relevant change in their operative point after the occurrence of the
disturbance. The range of variation of the angle is in the level of 20/30 degrees.
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Some of the machines present strong fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
final operative point after the clearance of the fault.
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Even that during the duration of the disturbance the voltage level remains between the
operative limits, the voltage level of the system suffers a significative fluctuation during the
initial five seconds of the disturbance.
Fault 500kV line- Fault in Tele Protection:
critical line of 500 kV with fault in the operation of the remote trigger to clear the fault.
The frequency remains close to the reference value during the disturbance and recover the
stable operation after two seconds the occurrence of the fault.
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The machines sufer a relevant change in their operative point after the occurrence of the
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Some of the machines present strong fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
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Fault 275kV line:
The frequency remains close to the reference value during the disturbance and recovers
the reference value after 1.5 seconds of the fault.
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Some of the machines present moderate fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
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Fault 275kV line- Fault in Tele Protection:
The frequency remains close to the reference value during the disturbance and recovers
the reference value after 1.5 seconds of the fault.
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Some of the machines present moderate fluctuations in their angle before than achieve their
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The outage of the critical generator of the system cause a small droop of the frequency
almost negligible for practical aspects.
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The electrical angle of the generators of the system suffer a moderated fluctuation during
the disturbance. All of the generators recover a stable operative point after five seconds of
the fult.
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The fluctuation of the voltage level is very limited and the final state shows a similar voltage
after the disturbance.
8. Beyond 2030:
deficiencies in the steady state model. This deficiencies of the model prevented the
consecution of an operative point stable to performed the frequency stability analysis.
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in order to objective evaluate the robustness of the system regarding the frquency stability.
Conclusions:
The simulations show that:
1) The system planned for the period 2026 to 2030 is very sensible in its
dynamic performance regarding switching and faults.
2) The simulations that shows strong fluctuations of frequency and voltage in

the practices adrees the high possibility of loose of sincronism of some
generators.
3) It is clear that the single corridor has strong constraints for reliability and
dynamic performance.
4) It is highly recommended by the consultan the evaluation of prioritise the

implementation of the scheme of double corridor in 500 kV (east and west
lines) instead of the single corridor (east side line).
5) In the opinion of the Consultant it is pending a more detail review of the

modell in order to assess in a more accurate level the expected performance
of the system and the mitigation measures.
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6.7. Economic analysis of the transmission master plan
The economic analysis of the transmission master plan aims to assess the economic cost
of the proposed investments for:
1) The effective application of the financial resources to the power system during the
planning period.
2) The balance of the costs and benefits of the proposed investments.
3) The rationale of the proposed investment in the context of the power system costs.
In this section the Consultant aims to clarify the mentioned aspects and perform the
correspondent analysis for the proposed transmission master plan of the Sumatra Power
System.
a. Effective application of the financial resources to the power

system during the planning period.
The selection of the most economic investments is the purpose of the planning methodology
and its implementation process. It is not the aims of this chapter to decide about the
appropriateness of the investments of the master plan, this decision was part of the planning
process and is a key driver during the definition of the investments in any level and
subsector of the PS.
So the investments have been defined, based I their technical contribution to the well
performance of the current and future system and also considering their cost, based on this
assumption is time to clarify the effective participation of the financial resources on the
development of the Power system during the planning period.
i. Net Vs. Effective costs during the planning period:

There is a common misunderstanding between the cost of the infrastructures installed
during the planning period and the portion of this cost to be effectively allocated for the
analysis of the expansion period.
The main discrepancy between the two concepts is clear if we consider the two border side
of the analysis.
Final Border Last investments of the planning horizon:
In this explanation we focus the attention in the investment to be made during the last period
of the planning horizon.
It is clear that very often the last period of planning horizon includes the installation of
relevant facilities, maybe big generation plants or transmission lines. These facilities are
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costly and has to be afforded during the planning period even by direct resources or by a
financial loan.
The reader must be aware that even that the total of the cost of the facilities is used during
the planning horizon (the last period) there is no point in allocate the total of this cost as
economic contribution to the PS development during period of analysis.
It is clear that is not fare for the evaluation of cost benefits of this final investments compare
the total investment cost against their technical contribution during only one period of time
(one year or season).
Only one fraction of the cost of the final investments has to be balanced with their use during
the planning horizon. There are different approaches for the estimation of the fraction to be
used, in other section we will explain the implemented in the analysis.
Initial Border No investments at the beginning of the planning horizon:
In this explanation we focus our attention in the assumption that during the first period of
the horizon there are no new investments decided. (firs season or year)
This situation is not strange because very often there is an investment program in place
with decided facilities. So the performance of the power system during the initial period is
technically appropriate but all the investments has been done in the past.
It is clear that in the balance of cost benefits of the planning if not fare to consider the use
of the facilities afforded in the past but no fraction of their cost. Clearly the benefits of the
appropriate operation of the Power System happens thanks to the investments made in the
past.
The inclusion of a fraction of the past investment cost as part of the effective investment
cost during the planning period is a controversial aspect for both, the inclusion of this cost
itself and the method of estimation.
The discussion of the portion of the past cost considered for the planning horizon is the
subject of the next section.
ii. Estimation of the effective costs for the planning horizon.

Following the previous conceptual explanation of the difference between net cost and
effective cost allocated to the expansion analysis we clarify the method used and
assumptions in the case of the economic evaluation of the Transmission Master Plan of
Sumatra.
The implementation criteria are the following:
1) Fraction of the cost allocated to the planning horizon:
There are different approaches to estimate the fraction of the cost of one investment
decided and executed during the planning horizon to the expansion plan. Among of
theme the following are the more used.
i. Proportional of the expected life cycle: In this case the concept is split
the net cost in equivalent annual payments for the total of the duration
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of the life cycle of the investments and consider only the payments that
are included in the study horizon.
The key assumption in this approach is that the facility continues being
useful for the system along the pending life cycle after the analysis
horizon.
ii. Proportional to the use: In this case the idea is split the net cost in
equivalent payments in proportion of is use during the life cycle (i.e.
generated energy for generators, transformed energy for transformers,
transported energy on lines or switching operations for breakers) and
include in the planning horizon only the fraction of the cost in proportion
of the use within the planning period.
The key assumption in this approach is that the facility will exhaust its
expected utilization rate before than its decommissioning independent
of the time that it takes.
iii. In proportion to the saved over costs per period: This approach is an
extrapolation of the concept of the economic marginal cost of the
element. The inclusion of the element (facility) in the power system save
some costs in the operation of the system, it is possible to simulate the
additional cost that happens in the system if the element is not available,
the cost of the facility is allocated per period in proportion to the saved
costs that produce its presence.
There are two key assumptions to be defined in this approach:

The saved cost is different if the facility is not available
only one period or if the facility is not installed at all, for
evaluation of investments there are a consensus of
consider the non-installation of the facility, but no clear
arguments but the facilitation of the calculations support
the advantage of this approach.
There must be an estimation of the saved costs during
the pending life cycle after the planning horizon. Very
often the approach is including at the end of the
simulation a period of 5 to 8 years with the reply of the
last year and consider the average of the yearly save cost
for each of the pending operative years of the life cycle.
For the evaluation of the Master Plan of Sumatra the Consultant use the approach of
Proportional of the expected life cycle described above.
2) Inclusion of the past investments cost in the planning horizon:
There are also different approaches for the estimation of the part of the previous
investment cost that must be included as part of the effective costs of the planning
horizon, among of these we may consider the following:
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a) Proportional to the life cycle: Is the application of the same concept of the
yearly payment for those facilities that has not finished their life cycle
The key assumption in this approach is that the facility will exhaust its
life cycle and decommissioned immediately. The critics to this approach
comes from the fact that many facilities that already finished their
expected life cycle are still in operation, contributing to the PS
performance and saving cost to the system.
b) Discounting the benefits currently provided by the existing system: This

approach considers that the current PS performance may keep
operating if neither change on the demand nor change on the system
happen in the future.
The key assumptions in this approach are:

The expansion of the system is required mainly because the
increase of the demand.
The current demand shall be discounted in the balance between the
cost of the proposed investments and the attendance of the future
demand.
The cost of expansion is allocated to the incremental demand, (no
increase of demand -> no expansion is required).
The advantage of this approach is its easy application, and is the only
feasible to be used if no detail information exists about the cost and age
of the existing system.
The critics on this method are coming from the fact that the supply of
part of the demand (the current demand) in the future is not independent
of the future expansion or future demand, the network nature of the
transmission system is characterized by economies of scale, network
and many synergies are in place in the systems working as a whole.
One implementation note: In the implementation of this approach there

is a consensus that recognize that the existing network and system
needs its renovation, so even if the demand does not increases it is
required some investments for the renovation of the facilities.
It makes sense to consider that the investments for the planning period
are not only attending the new demand but also providing systematic
renovation of the existing network.
Due to that it is generalized practice implement the discount of the

current demand not as a fixed amount along the planning period but in
a decreasing rate during the duration of the life cycle (after 30 years all
the demand is attended by the new investments and the existing network
has been totally decommissioned)
The consultant implements this second approach of Discounting the benefits currently
provided by the existing system in the evaluation of the Master Plan of Sumatra.
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b. Calculation of Effective costs considered in the Sumatra Master

Plan.
This section shows the method and results of the assessment of the effective cost of the
Transmission Master Plan of Sumatra.
According to the previous discussion the investment cost to be considered are the following:
Investment in transmission and sub transmission Lines:

Investments in Transmission substations (HV/MV, HV/HV)
Investment in sub transmissions substations (Transmission/Distribution)
O&M costs.
For purposes of evaluation of the expansion the year 2017 was taken as the existing system
and the expansion horizon is 2045.
i. Effective cost in transmission and sub transmission

lines:
According to the available data the transmission lines installed during the expansion horizon
sum 13637 km distributed as follows: 4385 km. at 500 kV, 3821 km. at 275 kV, 5390 km at
150 kV, 40 km at 70 kV.
The following table shows the quantity of transmission lines installed in each of the years
according to the expansion plan.
Table 1 : Quantity of transmission lines installed by year during the planning period
Volt (kV) 70 70 150 150 275 275 500 500
Year/Type Single Double Single Double Single Double Single Double
2018 0 1 0 4 0 3 0 0
2019 0 0 4 18 0 5 0 0
2020 0 0 0 34 1 9 0 0
2021 0 0 0 12 0 5 0 2
2022 0 0 0 9 0 3 0 5
2023 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 1
2024 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 1
2026 0 0 4 7 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
2028 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0
2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2030 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
2031 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 2
2032 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1
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Volt (kV) 70 70 150 150 275 275 500 500

Year/Type Single Double Single Double Single Double Single Double
2033 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1
2034 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1
2035 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2040 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 9
2045 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 13
The following table shows the length of transmission lines (km) installed in each of the years
according to the expansion plan.
Table 2: Km of line installed by year

Volts (KV) 70 150 275 500 Grand
Total
Year/Type Double Double Single Double Single Double
2018 40 141 187 368
2019 661 125 130 916
2020 1697 340 100 2136
2021 405 380 300 1085
2022 467 150 572 1189
2023 294 30 324
2024 155 125 280
2025 254 107 220 581
2026 545 230 775
2027 225 225
2028 86 120 206
2030 50 65 115
2031 99 370 78 547
2032 225 200 425
2033 139 200 339
2034 32 15 47
2040 963 1193 2156
2045 411 1512 1923
Grand Total 40 4804 587 3722 100 4385 13637
For the estimation of the investment cost of the transmission lines the following unitary costs
has been considered.
Volts (KV) 70 150 275 500

Type Double Double Single Double Single Double
USD / km 120000 210800 120000 310000 248000 489000
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The following table shows the estimated investment cost of transmission lines (million USD)
installed in each of the years according to the expansion plan
Table 3: Cost of the transmission lines - Millions of USD
Volts (KV) 70 150 275 500 Grand Total
2018 5 30 58 92
2019 139 15 40 194
2020 361 105 25 491
2021 85 118 144 347
2022 98 47 275 419
2023 62 14 76
2024 33 15 48
2025 53 13 106 172
2026 114 28 142
2027 70 70
2028 18 37 55
2030 16 31 47
2031 21 115 37 173
2032 70 164 234
2033 43 96 139
2034 10 7 17
2040 299 573 871
2045 127 726 853
Grand Total 5 1013 70 1154 25 2173 4440
The diagram of investments flows in the time is in the following diagram

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Using a discount rate of 10% the Net Present Value of the Investments flows is equivalent
to 1745 MUSD.
From the discussion of the previous section it is clear that the effective cost to be considered
for the balance of benefits from the transmission system is not the total of the 4.4 BUSD. In
example in the year 2045 is planned to install 1512 km of 550 KV DC line at an estimated
cost of 726 Million USD.
There is no point to justify the total of the 726 million of USD with the benefit of only one
year of operation of the line, the selected method estimates that only one annual payment
of the 30 years of life cycle is considered as effective cost within the planning horizon and
the other 29 payments go out of the effective account of costs for the obtained benefits of
this investment during the planning horizon.
The following table shows the annual payment for each of the investment cost in each of
the years of planning.
Table 4: Annual equivalent payment for the investments executed each year Million USD
(10% discount rate, 30 years of life cycle)
Volts (KV) 70 150 275 500 Grand Total Cumulative
2018 $0.51 $3.14 $6.15 $9.80 $10
2019 $14.73 $1.59 $4.27 $20.60 $30
2020 $38.28 $11.17 $2.63 $52.07 $82
2021 $9.02 $12.50 $15.28 $36.79 $119
2022 $10.40 $4.93 $29.13 $44.46 $164
2023 $6.55 $1.53 $8.08 $172
2024 $3.45 $1.59 $5.04 $177
2025 $5.66 $1.36 $11.20 $18.22 $195

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2026 $12.14 $2.93 $15.06 $210
2027 $7.40 $7.40 $218
2028 $1.92 $3.95 $5.86 $223
2030 $1.64 $3.31 $4.96 $228
2031 $2.21 $12.17 $3.97 $18.35 $247
2032 $7.40 $17.40 $24.80 $271
2033 $4.57 $10.18 $14.75 $286
2034 $1.05 $0.76 $1.82 $288
2040 $31.67 $60.75 $92.41 $380
2045 $13.52 $76.97 $90.49 $471
It is relevant to note that the inclusion of the figure by year is only to facilitate the reading of
the table, but the yearly payment must be included the year of commissioning of the
investment and all the following year of the study, because the line is providing services
and be paid all the years of the study up to the study horizon. The column cumulative of
payments is the one that includes the effective cost of investments in transmission lines to
be considered each year. (sum of the payment of the investment of the year in addition of
the payments of the investments of the previous years.)
In addition is relevant include the cost of O&M of the facilities installed. For purposes of the
evaluation we estimate the cost of M&M of any transmission facility as the 3% of the
investment cost.
The following table shows the annual O&M cost for each of the investment commissioned
in each of the years of planning.
Table 5: Annual O&M for the investments executed each year Million USD (3% of the
investment cost)
2018 $0.14 $0.89 $1.74 $2.77 $3
2019 $4.17 $0.45 $1.21 $5.82 $9
2020 $10.82 $3.16 $0.74 $14.73 $23
2021 $2.55 $3.53 $4.32 $10.41 $34
2022 $2.94 $1.40 $8.24 $12.57 $46
2023 $1.85 $0.43 $2.28 $49
2024 $0.98 $0.45 $1.43 $50
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2025 $1.60 $0.39 $3.17 $5.15 $55
2026 $3.43 $0.83 $4.26 $59
2027 $2.09 $2.09 $62
2028 $0.54 $1.12 $1.66 $63
2030 $0.47 $0.94 $1.40 $65
2031 $0.62 $3.44 $1.12 $5.19 $70
2032 $2.09 $4.92 $7.01 $77
2033 $1.29 $2.88 $4.17 $81
2034 $0.30 $0.22 $0.51 $81
2040 $8.96 $17.18 $26.14 $108
2045 $3.82 $21.77 $25.59 $133
The equivalent cash flow of the calculated payments is as in the following diagram.
Considering a discount rate of 10% on this graphic of cumulative payments the Net present
value is 1710 million us USD.
The Net Present Value of the O&M is 472 million us USD.
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From this analysis is possible to conclude that:
The total amount of investments in transmission lines is estimated in 4400

million USD.
The equivalent Net Present Value of these investments is 1745 million of
USD.
The effective cost of investments of 1710 million of USD shall be allocated
within the period of study.
For O&M costs n effective cost of 472 million USD shall be allocated for the
period of study.
ii. Effective cost in transmission substations:

Following the same method that in the calculation for the transmission lines the estimation
of the effective cost in transmission substations
The following table shows the capacity of the substations planned in the plan. It is expected
to install 80.000 MVA of capacity in the transmission substations.
Table 6: Capacity of the transmission substations in the Master Plan

Type/ Years 275//150 500//150 500//275 Grand
Total
2019 1830 1000 2830
2020 500 500
2021 1500 250 1750
2023 1000 1000
2027 750 750
2030 1000 1000
2045 37750 3000 31500 72250
Grand Total 42330 3000 34750 80080
For the estimation of the investment cost of the transmission substations the following
unitary costs has been considered.
Type (HV//LV) Capacity (MVA) M$

500//275 500 9
500//275 250 5.5
500//150 500 8.5
500//150 250 4
275//150 500 8
275//150 250 5.2
275//150 40 1.5
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The following table shows the estimated investment cost of transmission substations
(million USD) installed in each of the years according to the expansion plan.
Using a discount rate of 10% the Net Present Value of the Investments flows is equivalent
to 285 MUSD.
value in transmission substations is 221 million us USD.

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The total amount of investments in transmission substations is estimated in

1386 million USD.
USD.
For O&M costs the effective cost of 42 million USD shall be allocated for the
period of study.
iii. Effective cost in sub-transmission substations:

Following the same method that in the calculation for the transmission lines the estimation
of the effective cost in sub-transmission substations
The sub transmissions substations are those that connect the transmission system with the
distribution system, the configurations and variety is too high to make an assessment in
detail with the available information, the consultant grouped the different substations in
groups of typical equivalents in order to use standard Per Units.
The following table shows the capacity of the substations planned in the plan. It is expected
to install 115.380 MVA of transformers capacity in the sub-transmission substations.
Table 7: Capacity of the sub-transmission substations in the Master Plan
Row Labels 150//20 20//6.5 275//20 500//20 Grand
Total
2019 5616.5 60 2310 7986.5
2020 3132 3132
2021 145 900 1045
2023 2882 1440 3150 7472
2025 3564.5 1800 5364.5
2026 1020 1800 2820
2027 2290 2290
2028 240 1500 1740
2030 4950 4950
2045 3600 22830 52150 78580
Grand Total 20200 60 31270 63850 115380
For the estimation of the investment cost of the transmission substations the following
unitary costs has been considered.
Capacity (MVA) Type (HV//LV) Investment cost ($)

transformer 53 MVA 161/11.5 kV 1,210,000
transformer 33 MVA 161/11.5 kV 888,000
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The following table shows the estimated investment cost of sub-transmission substations
(million USD) installed in each of the years according to the expansion plan.
The total value of the investments is 505 MUSD. Using a discount rate of 10% the Net
Present Value of the Investments flows is equivalent to 308 MUSD.
value in sub-transmission substations is 296 million us USD.
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The total amount of investments in transmission substations is estimated in

505 million USD.
USD.
For O&M costs the effective cost of 58 million USD shall be allocated for the
period of study.
iv. Effective cost of the proposed Master Plan:

Summarizing the Estimated costs of the previous sections the total effective cost of the
Master plan in the study period is a total present value of 2227 MUSD and 572 MUSD for
O&M.
Table 8: Summary of costs of Transmission Master Plan

Total Net present Net present Net present
Investment cost Value of the Value of Value of O&M
Investment Effective costs costs during
during horizon horizon
Transmission 4440 1745 1710 472

Lines
Transmission 1386 285 221 42

substations
Sub- 505 308 296 58

transmission
substations
TOTAL 6331 2338 2227 572
c. The balance of the costs and benefits of the proposed

investments
As discussed in the previous section the benefits will be estimated in the assumption that
the expansion plan benefits permit the appropriate performance of the power system for the
new demand.
Also is considering that the existing demand is getting part of the benefits of the expansion
as replacement of the existing network,
The following figure shows the total energy flowing in the system each year split between
new the part that is getting the benefits of the new investments and the one allocated to the
current existing system.
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So the investment plan uses the effective cost and the O&M cost during the planning period
in order to serve the needs of the part of the demand in the blue color of the graph.
In order to appropriately evaluate the unitary cost of the expansion per unit of energy
attended is to compare the Net present value of the costs with the Net present value of the
served demand.
The application of the discount rate to the demand is not a correct concept but a mathematic
instrument in order to calculate the amount of money that each unit of energy has to pay in
order to afford the expansion cost.
Clearly the cost per unit is the ratio between the NPV of the cost flows divided by the NPV
of the attended energy.
The application of the NPV to the serial of energy in blue color the chart is 730.403,70 GWH
equivalents.
The ratio between cost and energy is
Unitary cost of Transmission per MWH
= NPV (Effective investment cos + O&M)/ NPV (Energy)
= (2227 + 572) MUSD/ 730 M(MWH)
= 3.83 USD/MWH.
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d. Rationale of the proposed investment in the context of the

power system costs
The estimated unitary cost of 3.83 USD/MWH for the transmission expansion in Sumatra
system fully match the typical unitary costs of transmission in international systems.
The cost appears a little high in comparison with the developed countries, in example the
European average unitary cost is 3.01 USD/MWH and in Spain is 3.32 /MWH.
It is relevant to underline that the architecture of the Sumatra power system demands the
movement of an important part of the energy from south to north side of the island. The
system demand more transfer of energy that a regular Power system, and it is expected
that the cost of the transmission system becomes higher than other systems of similar size.

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FOREIGN CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR PT.

PT. Prima Layanan Nasional Enjiniring

Jalan Wijaya I No.61 - Jakara 12170

MASTERPLAN SISTEM KELISTRIKAN

PT. Prima Layanan Nasional Enjiniring

Jalan Wijaya I No.61 - Jakara 12170

24. Integration of generation reliability in the Sumatra Preliminary Planning ................ 17

58. Suggestions and recommendations about the Trigger of expansion of Substations in

iii. Effective cost in sub-transmission substations: ........................................................ 114

Figure 1: Evolution of the planning paradigm ...................................................................... 9

1) Phase 1: Review of the Preliminary Master Plan prepared by Local experts

2) Phase 2: Detailed analysis of electrical performance of the proposed plan,

6.2. The purpose of this report:

a. Stage 4: Technical Performance of the transmission master plan, economic and

6.3. Summary of the analysis, comments and conclusions of the Review of

Explanatory Power of Variables, Statistical Tests and Consumers Behavior

Monte Carlo Approach and Sensitivity Analysis

Impacts on the Tariff (Inflation, Generation Mix, and Quality of Supply)

Population Growth, Number of Households and Electrification Rate

Regional and National GDP Growth Rates

Renewable Energy in the Generation Mix

iii. Assessment of Models Variables

1. GDP and Large Customers Approach

2. Population Growth, Number of Households and Electrification Rate

3. Impacts on the Tariff (Inflation, Generation Mix, and Quality of

If it is concluded that there is a possibility of modification of the generation

a. Customers Energy Consumption Switch

b. 8.2.4.2Energy Efficiency Initiatives

c. 8.2.4.3 Busbar Demand and Network Losses

study is for 30 years, it is deemed necessary to undertake an analysis of potential

5. Assessment of Data Set Sources

8. Statistical Tests and Sensitivity Analysis

10. Monte Carlo Approach

12. Analysis and comments of the Preliminary

b. Interaction among key aspects in Master planning:

13. The current planning paradigm.

Figure 1: Evolution of the planning paradigm

Uncertainty on Demand There is only one scenario of demand HIGH

Aspect Included in Interim Report Impact in the Master Plan

Uncertainty on Fuel Prices The current study neither includes Important.

Uncertainty on variable costs Variable costs are fixed, local Low

Uncertainty on Private decisions Current assumption of efficient Low on investments

Lack of long-term projects Implemented. There is a reasonable NA

Carbon Targets Non-included. Current assumption of Important. (Local and International

Aspect Included in Interim Report Impact in the Master Plan

Uncertainty on Demand There is only one scenario of demand HIGH

Uncertainty on Fuel Prices The current neither includes forecast Important.

Carbon Targets Non-included. Current assumption of Important. (Local and International

14. Demand Forecast in Preliminary T&D Plan

15. Integration of Demand Forecast for Planning

1) Must all the demand be supplied by the generation system?

2) Must the demand be supplied in the same regime?

3) Where will the demand be located?

Which is the required accuracy?

4) Coherence between demand scenarios and planning framework.

It must be pointed out that any alternative scenario to be considered must

16. Use of the Demand Forecast in the Sumatra

2) As a reference scenario, the considered demand forecasting met the requirements

3) No implementation of alternative scenarios or other means of including the

4) It is considered that no relevant fraction of self-supply of electricity will be

6) No active programs of demand management or incentives for an efficient use of

7) The geographic discrimination of demand forecast takes place at a province-level,

17. Recommendations to mitigate the weak aspects