India-The Next Superpower?

Deepanshu Bhalla
deepanshu_bhalla@yahoo.com
 What India needs….

Better Quality of Educational

Judicial reforms
infrastructure manpower reforms

High public
Attractive FDI spending on New Market Modernization
policies Social Models of Agriculture
Infrastructure

Youth
Good
participation in
governance
politics
 What India needs….(cont.)

Alleviate Reduce Take out

Change in
poverty and economic corruption from
attitude
distress inequality the root level

High Effective social Accountability

Financial
Employment safety net of government
reforms
programmes programmes to the public

Strong and
Rapid
Impartial Civil
Urbanization
Service
 Threat to India’s Future

Left wing Religious

Terrorism
Extremism Extremism

Poor State Of
Economic
Education Corruption
Inequality
Sector

Poor State Of Unstable

Political Chaos
Health Sector Neighbor
Threat to India’s Future (cont.)

Internal Border
Red Tapism
Security Disputes

Environmental Poor
Brain drain
Degradation Infrastructure

Bad State of
Poverty
judicial Sector
 Traits of a superpower

Internal External
Harmony The citizens can
Harmony Neighboring
countries deter
do their
from causing any
activities disturbance in the
uneventfully, internal affairs of
without any the country and do
hindrance, not attack its
violence or borders. They are
tensions other eager to develop
than those social, economic
required by the and cultural ties
with the country.
activity.
Traits of a superpower (Cont.)

Harmony
with Nations other than neighbours
Universe do not intervene in the
internal affairs or disputes
with the neighbouring
countries. They are eager to
have socio-economic and
cultural ties with the country
Why India next Superpower?

Military strength

Nuclear Capabilities

Satellite Capabilities

Young Population
Why India next Superpower?
India’s automobile Industry fastest
growing in the world

India’s Telecommunication Sector

Fastest growing in the World

Home to a $52-billion textile

manufacturing sector.

Innovation from ultra-inexpensive cars to

pioneering computer software
 USA Russia China India

ARMY
Total Land-Based Weapons 59,920 79,985 31,300 10,340

Tanks 32,878 22,800 8,200 3,898 [2004]

Armored Personnel Carriers 10,809 9,900 5,000 3,898 [2004]

Towed Artillery 10,579 13,585 14,000 4,175 [2004]

Self-Propelled Guns 9,550 6,010 1,700 200 [2004]

Multiple Rocket Launch 5,799 4,350 2,400 150 [2004]

Systems
Anti-Aircraft Weapons 11,987 9,100 7,700 2,424 [2004]

Sources: US Library of Congress; Central Intelligence Agency

 USA Russia China India

Total Aircraft 18,169 3,888 1,900 1,007

Helicopters 4,593 2,625 491 240

Serviceable Airports 14,947 1,260 467 346

Sources: US Library of Congress; Central Intelligence Agency

 USA Russia China India

Total Navy 1,559 526 760 143

Ships
Merchant 422 1,074 1,822 501
Marine
Strength
Major Ports 10 8 8 9
and Harbors

Aircraft Carriers 11 1 1 1

Destroyers 50 15 21 8

Submarines 75 61 68 18

Sources: US Library of Congress; Central Intelligence Agency

 India vs China Economy
Both India and China rank among the front runners of global
economy and are among the world’s most diverse nations. Both the
countries were among the most ancient civilizations and their
economies are influenced by a number of social, political, economic
and other factors.
Facts India China
GDP around $1.209 trillion around $7.8 trillion
GDP growth 6.7% 9.1%
Per capital GDP $1016 $6,100
Inflation 7.8 % -1.2 %
Labor Force 523.5 million 807.7 million
Unemployment 6.8 % 4.3 %
 Education Sector
 Present population of India is about 1100 million
 72% or nearly 775 million are below the age of 35 years
 It is estimated that there are nearly 300 million people in the age group
from 18 years to 50 years who seek employment, either self employment or
otherwise
 India has a large number of young people but they are not educated and
trained to world class standards, therefore most are not employable.
 Nearly 46 million people are registered with various Employment
Exchanges, with little or no hope of getting some sort of employment
 Excepting in Information Technology and Software where there may be
50,000 or more private I.T. training institutes and centers, which is the
reason for the IT success,
 There are very few facilities for training the other 2500 courses offered in
15,000 modules, in different branches of Vocational Education and
Training, VET
 Education Sector(cont.)
 In developed and developing countries nearly 10% of the population
between the ages 15 to 55 would be doing some sort of Vocational
Education & Training, VET, this would amount to about 60 to 70 million
people being trained in India at any given time!
 In India the number of people getting some sort of VET is hardly 1.5 to 2
million students per year, totally inadequate for a country of the size of
India.
 The present Literacy levels are only 67.5%, a balance of nearly 400
million people need to be made literate.
 The present Indian definition of Literacy also needs up-gradation
 Various studies have proved, without any doubt, that the GDP growth rate
moves up by 1% to 2% per year, only as a result of an educated and
literate population
 Nearly 28 million people are added to the youth population every year,
putting additional burden on the existing Primary and Secondary Education
infrastructure of India.
 Education Sector(cont.)
 In the 7 IIT’s and the 5 IIM’s the total number of seats allows only the
top 1.1% to1.3% of the applicants to be selected. The top 15% of these
students find admission any where in the world educational institutions,
provided they can pay for their fees.
 The IIT’s and IIM’s charge highly subsidized fees, as a result, even after
57 years of independence they have no surplus to set up new campuses
 It is estimated that nearly Rs 50,000 cr of funds flow out of India every
year, directly and indirectly, for the Indian students studying abroad,
enough to build 30 IIT’s or 50 IIM’s per year!
 The IIT’s, IIM’s and colleges of Higher & Technical Education find it very
difficult to get teaching staff and trainers on fixed government levels of
salary and wage structure.
 Capitation fees and corruption in education will only be diminished by
deregulation and by allowing the market forces of supply and demand take
care of quality and quantity of education
 Key Recommendations
 In the first phase, Government should concentrate from Kinder Garden to
the 10th Class for the next 20 to 25 years, or till literacy levels of above 98%
have been achieved, whichever is sooner
 Enterprise Skills and Education or ESD needs to be started from Class 1st to
Class 10th. This will impart to the youth a view of how the real world works
and help them to choose the profession of their choice and aptitude, by
the time they are 14 to 16 years of age.
 Pre-vocational courses should be started from Class 7th to 10th.
 Councilors and student advisors need to be available to all students in the
secondary schools. This network needs urgent implementation.
 All funding for higher and Technical Education should be diverted towards
Primary and Secondary education.
 License Raj in Higher & Technical Education, including Vocational Education
& Training should go. Reservation for up to 25% of seats for merit and
merit-cum-poverty to be reserved in such institutions at very nominal fees
of say 25% of normal fees
Key Recommendations(cont.)
 A dynamic relationship between
Teaching-Research-Industry-
Enterprise-Government, is required

 Education & Training worldwide, as

an Enterprise, is 500% the size of I. T.
and software. The MHRD should do
whatever is necessary to promote
India as an International Hub in
education & training. This alone can
propel India to become a ‘World
Power’. This alone can remove and
reduce the menace of Capitation Fees!
Education: India must learn from China
The quality of manpower is a significant resource for large populous
countries such as India and China, which depend on them for their
rapid economic growth.
India China
Enrolment

Masters in Engineering 20,000 125,000

Masters in Management 15,000 45,000

PhDs in Engineering 1,000 22,000

PhDs in Management 100 5,000

The main reason is the different models of higher education being

pursued in these two countries. China has a system of funding large
public universities, similar to that in the US.
 SYSTEM OF FUNDING LARGE PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES
 Out of the 795 institutes that provide post-graduate programmes in
China, none is privately-owned. These institutions are funded by
central ministries and local educational departments.
 Researchers have empirically proved that economies of scale exist in
higher education, especially in postgraduate educational institutions.
In a study on US PhD-granting institutes, the minimum efficient
scale was found to be between 11,000 and 30,000 students.
 Large universities having different departments and schools enable
the exchange of ideas in a much more fruitful manner across
disciplines.
 Indian institutions are autonomous and independent in their
functioning, the benefits of economies of scale can never be tapped,
resulting in higher long-run average costs, thus necessitating either
more funding by the government or higher tuition fees