MS&E 252

Decision Analysis I September 26, 2017

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Course Guide to MS&E 252
Foundations of Decision Analysis

Welcome to Decision Analysis I. This course guide has been developed to summarize
the course logistics. Please read this handout carefully.

Introduction

Everyone makes decisions, but few people think about how they do it. Psychological
research shows that in many simple decision situations people make decisions that upon
close examination they regard as wrong. Decision analysis is the normative field of
decision-making. Throughout the course, we will develop rules of thought that will
transform complex decisions into simpler decision situations where the course of action is
clear. We will create powerful distinctions that will improve your personal decision-
making and enable you to help others with their own decisions.

Message from Ronald Howard

Decision analysis is the best way I know how to make decisions. Thats not to say that
thinking about decisions is important, but if you do wish to think about your choices,
decision analysis is the best way I know how to achieve clarity of action. In MS&E 252, I
will profess how to carry on a conversation for achieving clarity of actional thought by
combining precisely defined concepts. Throughout the quarter, I will ask you to
demonstrate your proficiency at conducting a professional conversation about decision-
making building on the concepts present in lectures or in course materials. I guarantee
that MS&E 252 will help you create powerful distinctions to improve your personal
decision-making and to help others with their decisions.

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Decision Analysis I September 26, 2017
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Enrolling on Axess

On Axess, enroll in the lecture only. We will not be having different sections this years,
so if you attempt to enroll in a section on Axess, you will get an error.

Lectures

Day: Tuesdays and Thursdays

Time: 10:30 a.m. to 11:50 a.m.
Location: Nvidia Auditorium

Professor Howard, one of the founders of Decision Analysis and a teacher and
practitioner for over 35 years, will lead the lectures. The lectures have been developed to
demonstrate lessons that have been learned through the practice and teaching of decision
analysis. Professor Howards style features a mix of Socratic dialogue, demonstration,
lecture, and directed inquiry. The lecture demonstrations capture the essence of applying
decision analysis to 'real' problems. Try to appreciate the philosophy and depth behind
what is being taught in the lectures and demonstrations, even if they appear deceptively
simple. Listen carefully to the questions posed and the responses provided by Dr.
Howard. The course is interactive: contribute your enthusiasm and energy and you will
be rewarded many times over. Before asking or answering a question in the lectures,
please say your name. We would like to know you throughout the quarter just like you
know us. The lectures will not always cover computational details, which will be
addressed in problem sessions by the teaching assistants.

We typically make announcements at the beginning of class; these will concern

assignments and other course-related information. Handouts will be available on the web
page for printout or reference. Additional handouts not available on the web page will be
provided at the beginning of class.

Problem Sessions

Day: TBD
Time: TBD
Location: TBD

Attendance to both the class lectures and the problem sessions will be crucial to your
success in the course.

During problem sessions, we will answer any questions you may have about class
lectures and homework assignments, work through quantitative problems that illustrate
concepts covered in the lectures, and help you apply and challenge what you are being
taught.

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Decision Analysis I September 26, 2017
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The problem sessions provide an essential extension of the material covered in the
lectures and are intended to deepen your understanding of DA concepts as well as to
cover the calculation aspects of the course. It will be televised and available on the web
for SCPD students. Local students, including local SCPD students, are encouraged to
come to problem sessions as much as possible.

Office Hours

We will be holding several office hours (including online for SCPD) to answer questions
related to lectures, problem sessions, or homework assignments.

See The Teaching Team section of this Course Guide for the time and location of
office hours.

Online access to lectures and problem sessions

https://myvideosu.stanford.edu

All lectures and problem sessions will be recorded by SCPD and made available online.
Please note that the teaching team is not involved with the management of this system;
any technical question or comments about the online videos should be sent to SCPD.

Class Website

https://canvas.stanford.edu

The website will be the primary method for the teaching team to distribute course
material and messages.

SCPD students will need to get a SUNET ID from their SCPD coordinator to access
online course materials.

While we will rely on Canvas for most of the logistics, we will be using Piazza forum for
questions. Please register yourself with our Piazza website by searching MS&E252 on
Piazza.

Problem Session Slides

We will be using presentation slides for most of the problem sessions. As often as
possible, problem session slides will be posted on the class website prior to the problem
session.

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Required Texts

Ronald A. Howard and Ali E. Abbas, Foundations of Decision Analysis. 1st Edition.
Prentice Hall, 2015. This book will also be used in MS&E 352.

Optional Text

Collection of Readings. This is a good selection of decision analysis readings. In the

quarter, we will upload compulsory readings to Coursework. But if you are interested in
reading more, this is a recommended text.

Projection Notes, Ronald A. Howard. These notes will also be used in MS&E 352.
Professor Howard may refer to material from the Projection Notes during lecture as
supplementary to his slides.

Availability of Texts

All texts listed above should be available at the Stanford Bookstore. SCPD students
should order directly from the bookstore.

Several copies of all texts listed above are available on reserve at the Engineering
Library.

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The Teaching Team

Professor: Ronald Howard

rhoward@stanford.edu
Huang 325

The teaching assistants on this years teaching team are all PhD students/candidates in
MS&Es Decision Analysis and Risk Analysis program.

Name E-mail Office Hours

Philip Martin halplm@stanford.edu TBD
Daniel Kharitonov dkharito@stanford.edu TBD
Alejandro Martinez ale.martinez@stanford.edu TBD

Homework Assignments

There will be weekly homework assignments provided on Canvas each Friday and due
the following Thursday 11:59pm. You are allowed to work in groups if you choose,
however you must submit your own work and credit each person with whom you
collaborated as part of your submission.

Homework assignments will generally include some or all of the following:

1) Reading assignments.
2) Definitions.
3) Probabilistic questions.
4) Quantitative problems.
5) Food for thought.

You are to submit your answers to the probabilistic questions on the homework
submission site:
https://mse252.stanford.edu/
Unless otherwise mentioned, you will not need to turn in your solutions for any of the
other parts of the assignment. Solutions to the full HW assignment will be distributed
one week after the assignment is handed out.

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Study Group and Case Study

In this course, we require every student to be in a 4-person study group. Please start to
form study groups as early as the first day of class. We will randomly group students
without a study group before the drop deadline of the course.

The main functionality of study group is to facilitate after-class discussion, as well as to

collaborate on the case study. Each study group will then be assigned to one of the
teaching assistants, who is responsible for guiding and grading your case study. Please
note that this does not mean only the teaching assistant assigned to the group is available
for all course related questions. You are welcome to approach any teaching assistant for
help, or to come by any of the office hours.

Towards the end of the quarter, we will provide a case study so you can apply many of
the concepts you learnt throughout the class in a complex decision setting. The 4 study
group members will work on the case study together.

Exams and Grading Policy

There will be two exams during the quarter: a midterm and a final. The exams will be
closed book and closed notes. The midterm format will be the same as the probabilistic
format of the homework assignments. The final will contain both probabilistic and
analytical sections.

Professor Howard believes that the commitment to provide course grades interferes
with his ability to provide learning experiences and exercises, so he delegates the
course grading to the teaching team.

The breakdown of your final grade is shown below:

Homework 25%
Case Study 15%
Midterm 20% Tuesday, November 8th, in class
Final 40% Wednesday, December 14th, 12:15 p.m. - 3:15 p.m.

Participation will be taken into account for students make pertinent comments in class,
problem session, and/or on the Piazza Forum.

SCPD Students

SCPD students who are local are welcome to attend the lectures and problem sessions in
person. If you are not local, we encourage you to use the Coursework Discussion to find
other remote students with whom to collaborate on homework assignments. We also
encourage you to be especially active on the Piazza Forum with your questions about
concepts and assignments. This tool affords you access to TA help throughout the week.

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Honor Code

All students and members of the teaching team are expected to follow Stanford
University's Honor Code. If you are not familiar with the Honor Code, please refer to
The Stanford University Bulletin.

Students may discuss and work on homework problems in groups but must assign
probabilities to all possible answers on their own.

Additionally, we expect students not to copy, refer to, or look at homework or exam
material from previous years, unless it is provided by the teaching team. We consider it
an honor code violation to do so.

Wishing you all a wonderful learning experience,

The DA Teaching Team

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Assignment Schedule

Assignment Date Available Date Due

Homework 1 Friday, September 29 Thursday, October 5

Homework 2 Friday, October 6 Thursday, October 12

Homework 3 Friday, October 13 Thursday, October 19

Homework 4 Friday, October 20 Thursday, October 26

Homework 5 Friday, October 27 Thursday, November 2

Homework 6 Friday, November 10 Thursday, November 23

Homework 7 Friday, November 17 Thursday, November 30

Case Study Friday, November 17 Friday, December 8

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