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The World Before

World War II
Re-Emerges
Originally published: Sept. 8, 2016

Instability runs rampant across the
Eurasian landmass today at a level unseen
since the years leading up to World War II.
Summary
The Eurasian landmass is in crisis. The last time
the world looked like this was on the eve of World
War II. Crises simmering in Europe, Russia, the Mid-
dle East and China are beginning to interact with
each other. There is nothing to stop the momentum
of these crises. The global order is poised for a ma-
jor reconfiguration. That will not necessarily mean
a new world war, but the possibility of war cannot
be dismissed.
The instability that preceded World War II was
similar to the conditions that prevail in Eurasia
today.
Russia, China, the Middle East and Europe all
face varying degrees of political, economic,
social and institutional crisis. These crises are
beginning to interact.
The United States was an emerging power on
the eve of World War II; it is the global hegemon
today. Then, as now, it will avoid direct interven-
tion until the last possible moment.
There appears to be nothing that can or will halt
the momentum of these crises.
Introduction
Almost 5 billion of the 7.4 billion people on Earth
live on the Eurasian landmass. It is the heartland
of humanity. Eurasia has always been a turbulent
place, but over the last few years its turbulence
has taken on a new and more ominous form.
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THE WORLD BEFORE WORLD WAR II RE-EMERGES
Various parts of Eurasia have destabilized, and
the destabilized areas are beginning to interact.
The last time we saw this happening was prior
to World War II. This isnt to say that we are nec-
essarily heading toward a Eurasian war. It does
mean that we have entered a new historical phase,
and that new phase carries with it dramatically
increasing risks. At the very least we are entering
a phase where the global system is shifting in
fundamental ways. When the human heartland
comes under intense pressure, humanity as a
whole shifts.
Currently, Europe, Russia, China and the Mid-
dle East are destabilizing. The destabilization
in Europe is economic, social, and institutional.
In Russia, it is economic and strategic. Chinas
destabilization is economic and social. The Middle
East is destabilizing culturally and militarily. What
is happening in China is different from what is
happening in the Middle East. But they are both
struggling with transformations they cant control
and cant stop. The Middle East sinks into war,
China into dictatorship. But there is an underly-
ing reality they are both dealing with instability.
The instability leading up to World War II ended in
general warfare. Todays instabilities may heal, or
remain separate. They could also turn into a range
of interlocking instability or even escalate to war,
which should never be excluded as a possibility.
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Before World War II
The causes of World War II predated World War I.
In fact, we should think of World War I and World
War II as one war with a truce, as has been said.
World War II simply continued World War I and
spread it to the rest of Eurasia.
There were three causes of World War II. One was
the rise of a new set of powers Germany, Japan
and the United States that needed to redefine
the global system. None had been significant pow-
ers in the 19th century. Germany and the United
States had changed the global economic order
and by 1914 were pressing for a restructuring of
the global system, particularly redefining the Brit-
ish and French empires. After World War I, Germa-
ny recovered from its defeat, Japan emerged as a
first-rate power and the United States continued
to be uneasy with the established powers and the
new emerging powers.
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THE WORLD BEFORE WORLD WAR II RE-EMERGES
The second cause was the economic conse-
quences of World War I. The collapse of Germany
and the human and financial costs of the war for
France and Britain created massive economic dis-
location. This was exacerbated because Germany,
which had been a dominant trading power, could
no longer export or import. Russia underwent a
revolution that further disrupted economic life and
opened the door to destabilizing political move-
ments. Populations that had lived through the
slaughter of World War I were caught in economic
failure and mainstream regimes were confronted
by radical parties. This was underway in China,
Japan and India as well.
The third cause flowed from the first two. World
War I had created bitter distrust among European
countries. The collapse of the Habsburg, Hohen-
zollern, Romanoff and Ottoman empires after
defeat in the war had created a large number of
newly independent countries, none of which trust-
ed each other. Their foreign policies were highly
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unpredictable. In addition, the global economic
decline following World War I caused nationalism
to rise in all countries, on the assumption that it
was every man for himself. Nationalism mani-
fested in different ways, from an indolent French
nationalism to a virulent German one. Internation-
al tensions and economic dysfunction radicalized
and fragmented the European system.
The American position was the most important.
The United States went into a deep depression
in 1929. Its political system shuddered but didnt
break. It was not isolationist, as most people
think. It simply sought to avoid a European war.
It was deeply involved in East Asia politically and
militarily. By minimizing internal unrest and enjoy-
ing its distance from Eurasia, it was in a position
to avoid engaging Eurasia unless and until re-
quired, while struggling to rebuild its economy.
In the decade before war broke out, Europe had
been economically shattered. Russia was un-
dergoing forced industrialization and brutal re-
pression. The Middle East was dominated by the
British and some looked to Germany as a solution.
China was mired in warlordism and civil war and,
by the 1930s, a war with Japan. Japans industri-
alization had surged, but its political system had
been radicalized by the rise of the militarys politi-
cal power and its militaristic ideology. All of these
crises were interconnecting. The Soviets were
destabilizing Europe ideologically and politically.
The Europeans and Americans were involved in
China. The United States and Japan competed
economically and prepared for a possible war with
each other.
Eurasia Today
In history, nothing is simply the same as it was
before, yet the broad trends can be similar.
The United States is now at the heart of the
international establishment. New powers are
rising to challenge the world the United States
constructed after World War II. China has emerged
as a major economic power and a rising military
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THE WORLD BEFORE WORLD WAR II RE-EMERGES
power. Russia, after its collapse at the end of the
Cold War, has also re-emerged as a rising power,
wanting to redefine the international system. And
various strands of the Islamic world are looking to
redefine the international system, first by trying to
construct a coherent Islamic regime in the Middle
East and then by posing a broader challenge.
The financial crisis of 2008 has created systemic
instability throughout the world. The contraction
of the global economy in the wake of the finan-
cial crisis and its failure to resume robust growth
struck all exporting countries. China was the
most badly hit because it was most dependent
on exports. The Chinese economic problem led
to decreased demand for industrial commodities,
particularly oil. This led ultimately to a collapse
of commodity prices, which particularly struck at
Russia and Saudi Arabia, destabilizing the Middle
East further. The financial crisis struck Europe
particularly hard and the European Union had
to reconcile the interests of southern European
countries with those of Germany. Some areas of
Europe plunged into recession, while others con-
tinued to do fairly well.
Under this economic pressure, the social and
political glue started to disintegrate. In Europe, the
nationalism of each country rose under divergent
economic interests. And the question of where
decisions are made on matters like immigration
made people realize that the EU was taking sov-
ereignty away from individual countries. That was
all fine when giving away sovereignty didnt mean
anything, but once it meant you had to carry out
immigration policy according to Brussels, not Bu-
dapest or Warsaw, it became a problem. National-
ist and anti-immigration parties surged.
In Russia, economic problems combined with stra-
tegic problems to increase the power of the state
and the use of military force. In China, a dictator-
ship was imposed and a massive purge is being
carried out to frighten any potential enemy of the
regime. Naval activities in the South and East
China seas drew Southeast Asia into confronta-
tions with China. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabias
4 2017 Geopolitical Futures

ability to manage potentially destabilizing jihadist
groups through financial incentives decreased,
and wars intensified throughout the region.
These various regional crises are now beginning
to interact. The conflict in the Middle East is gen-
erating a huge flow of migrants to Europe. Accord-
ing to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees,
over 2 million refugees and migrants have arrived
in Europe since the beginning of 2014. Europe has
also seen several jihadist attacks, and European
countries like France and Germany have deployed
some forces in the Middle East. Russia is engaged
in the Middle East as well, while simultaneous-
ly maintaining support for anti-West forces in
Ukraine. It has conducted maneuvers near the
Baltics and its aircraft are patrolling deep into the
Atlantic and Mediterranean. The Chinese eco-
nomic crisis has reverberated throughout Eurasia.
Since Chinas foreign exchange reserves almost
hit $4 trillion in June 2014, they have fallen to $3.2
trillion, the lowest figure since 2011. Meanwhile,
the Chinese have confronted Japan, Taiwan, the
Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia over sover-
eignty claims in the South and East China seas.
Two areas in Eurasia have thus far avoided in-
volvement. India, barricaded behind the Himalayas
in the north and the jungles to the east, has not
been involved in the crises of surrounding coun-
tries beyond Pakistan. Nor has it had an extraordi-
nary internal crisis.
The other area is Central Asia, which has not yet
fully participated in these crises. But it is in the
process of entering crisis mode, in large part due
to the collapse of oil prices, which has weakened
central governments and generated regional hos-
tility. But there are ample signs that the pressures
from falling oil revenue, increasing Russian influ-
ence in the area, Chinese interest and activities
by jihadist groups will destabilize Central Asia as
well.
Therefore, with the exception of India, which was
only marginally involved in pre-war and wartime
events during World War II, the entire region is
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THE WORLD BEFORE WORLD WAR II RE-EMERGES
destabilizing. We need to consider each individu-
ally and in detail to see what the destabilization is
about.
A Closer Look at Each Region
Europe
Europes destabilization comes from a fundamen-
tal flaw in the European Unions founding. It linked
together wildly different economies and societies
in a single structure, with the euro as the most
extreme example. Consequently, when a financial
crisis came, as such crises always do, Europe
had to craft a single policy that covered the needs
of northern and southern European economies.
A single policy was impossible, and the policies
placed southern Europe at an extreme disadvan-
tage, creating a regional depression.
The divergence in national interests created a sec-
ond problem. Sovereign nations reclaimed their
right to make decisions independent of central
EU policies, as we saw in the migrant crisis. The
pre-World War II movement from economic fail-
ure to radical nationalism is therefore underway
again in Europe, with old intra-European conflicts
re-emerging. An emerging crisis is Germanys hy-
per-dependence on exports. Exports account for
46.9 percent of its GDP in a world where demand
for manufactured goods is stagnant or declining.
If German exports fall, so does German GDP and
unemployment will rise.
Russia
In Russia, the core problems are strategic and
economic. Strategically, Russia has always main-
tained a buffer zone from the Baltics to Ukraine.
The Baltics have been absorbed by NATO, and
events in Ukraine convinced the Russians that the
West was trying to absorb it as well. The loss of
the buffer zone, in at least a neutral form, under-
mines Russian national security. However, the
near simultaneous collapse of oil prices revealed
that Russia had failed, once again, to create a
modern economy out of the flow of money when
5 2017 Geopolitical Futures

oil prices were high. As a result, Moscows control
over Russias peripheral regions through financial
support from the center is in danger, and so is
Russias political cohesiveness. During periods of
weakness, Russia historically has tried to compen-
sate by focusing on its external power. This has
led it to engage in the Middle East.
The Middle East
In the Middle East, the story is simple. First, the
countries created by the British and French after
World War I are dissolving. They were artificial
nation-states in the first place, which is why only
dictators could control them. Second, the under-
lying culture of the region, Islam, is replacing the
secularly oriented political culture shaped by the
British. The new Middle East is dissolving and it is
being replaced by an old one. During World War II,
there was a rise in Islamic consciousness as well
as an anti-British and therefore pro-German senti-
ment. In the Middle East, the situation is actually
similar to what it was during World War II.
China
China is experiencing the same type of slowdown
that Japan did around 1990. The idea that Chi-
na could indefinitely continue to experience the
growth of the last 30 years was irrational. But it
was irrational not only for structural reasons, but
because hundreds of millions of Chinese have
participated very little in the economic growth and
now know that they never will. The coastal region,
which has participated, resists the transfer of
wealth to the interior. The interior demands rectifi-
cation. The danger here is that China will return to
the regionalism it experienced from the late 1800s
to 1947. To avoid that, China is imposing a dicta-
torship along with a purge. Simultaneously, it has
increased activities in the South and East China
seas, which, like Russias excursions abroad, are
more designed to shape domestic public opinion
than to actually enter a shooting war. China is
struggling to keep the pre-war regionalism from
re-emerging.
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THE WORLD BEFORE WORLD WAR II RE-EMERGES
Each major Eurasian region is in crisis. Each crisis
is different. But all of the regions have destabi-
lized. They have done so in different ways and to
different degrees. We are not anywhere near an
all-inclusive war, and we may never get there, but
the entire landmass is off balance with social and
economic problems, dramatic internal political
shifts and in some regions, military conflicts. It is
clear that we are entering a fundamental shift in
how the world works.
The United States
The world differs in this sense. Prior to the world
wars, the United States was one of the nations
seeking a shift in the international system. The
old establishment in Europe was struggling to
hold on. Today the United States has become the
anchor of the established international order. It
produces almost a quarter of the worlds GDP. It
has the only military with global reach. It is pulled
into all problems in one role or another. China,
Russia and even Europe want U.S. power limited.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States
became the only global power. It anticipated a
period of pleasant self-absorption. But 9/11 ended
that, and the United States responded with a
massive intervention in the Islamic world. It failed
to solve the problem of Islamist terrorism. The
United States has since shifted from a strategy of
intervention with main force to very light interven-
tions, relying on powers in the region to manage
the major burden.
It is impossible for the U.S. to manage the world.
Its power is great, but it is not omnipotent. Nor
is every conflict in the world an American issue.
Therefore, the United States is moving to a po-
sition in which it manages regional balances of
power and intrudes much more lightly than before.
This is not isolationism, but the adoption of the
British and Roman models of rare and limited
interventions and support for regional powers to
maintain balance.
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 THE WORLD BEFORE WORLD WAR II RE-EMERGES

Before the U.S. entered WWII, it expected the Euro- continue and intensify. There doesnt seem to be a
pean war to descend into the stalemate of World force to contain it.
War I. With the sudden collapse of France, the U.S.
faced an unexpected situation. It intervened, but Therefore, the only reasonable conclusion is that
only on the periphery of the battle, in North Africa, we are seeing a mounting crisis in Eurasia. Should
Italy and the Pacific. It intervened directly against it continue, it will mean a reconfiguration of this
Germany, identified as the main adversary, at Nor- region, as it was reconfigured by World War II.
mandy in 1944, when it brought its main force to
bear, less than a year before the end of the war. It
used its industrial base to support Britain and the
Soviet Union, with the Soviets executing the major
fighting.

The American disengagement from Eurasia puts

the U.S. in the same position it was in prior to
1941 and 1917. It relies on regional balances to ei-
ther contain or fight regional conflicts. It provides
military aid, economic assistance and limited mili-
tary forces to help. And it reserves major interven-
tion for extreme situations and at the last practical
moment. The rest of the world expects American
involvement, but in the new era it will come in a
very different form.

Conclusion

The widespread instability in Europe, China, Rus-

sia and the Middle East all part of Eurasia is
something we havent seen since before World
War II. The instability takes different forms and
has not reached a critical stage. Still, economic
and social crises are common and fighting is
taking place, to some extent, in the Middle East
and on Russias borders and military activities are
going on in Chinas coastal waters. These conflicts
have not flowed into a single conflagration, but
have begun to interact. Most interesting is that the
United States is returning to its pre-World War II
posture.

The single most dangerous factor is that there are

no apparent arrestors. There are no clear forc-
es that can stop the fighting in the Middle East,
the EU internal crisis, the Russian economic and
strategic crisis or the Chinese political, social and
economic crises. Without arrestors, the crises will

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 THE WORLD BEFORE WORLD WAR II RE-EMERGES

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2017 Geopolitical Futures