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This paper was prepared for presentation at the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition held in Lagos, Nigeria, 30 July 1 August 2013.
This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper have not been
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Abstract
In order to make sound investment decisions with regards Introduction
to oil field appraisal and development, it is crucial to be The total estimated amount of oil in a reservoir, both
able to properly predict reservoir performance and hence producible and non-producible, is called oil in place.
oil recovery factor. Oil recovery factor is the recoverable However, due to varying reservoir characteristics and
fraction of the initial oil in place. It varies across different limitations in petroleum extraction technologies, only a
reservoirs depending on depositional environment, drive fraction of this oil can be produced to surface from the
mechanism, rock and fluid properties. reservoir, this fraction of producible volume is reffered to
as the ultimate recovery. The ratio of ultimate recovery to
Over the years, a variety of methods have been used for total oil in place for a given field is often referred to as the
the estimation of oil recovery factors vis (Analytical, oil recovery factor (RF), which gives an idea of the
Simulation, Empirical e.t.c). The thrust of this paper will reservoir production efficiency. The RF of any particular
focus on the use of empirically derived recovery factor field may change over time based on operating history and
regression equation for estimating oil recovery factor for in response to changes in technology and economics.
water drive reservoirs in the Niger Delta. This method was Uncertainty also exists in the estimation of initial oil
first developed by the American Institute of Petroleum recovery factor due to the fact that there is usually
(API) subcommittee on recovery efficiency in Nov., 1967 insufficient or inaccurate data at the early stage of field
with the publication of API Bulletin D14 A Statistical development. Considering all these uncertainties, it will
Analysis of Recovery Efficiency. The subcommittee used come as no surprise to know that initial RF estimates at
case histories from some 312 producing oil reservoirs with early stage of field development are usually over or under
sandstone lithology from which certain empirical estimated. The accuracy of the RF estimate depends on the
relationships were derived by regression analysis. Specific availability of data and type of estimation of methodology
regression equations were developed for Water-drive and employed.
Solution gas reservoirs.
Generally RF estimation methods can be grouped into two
This paper presents the practicality of using the regression broad categories; Analytical and Empirical. Analytical RF
equation for water drive reservoirs in the Niger Delta, estimation methods can further be grouped into two main
which have similar lithology. Firstly, a form of robustness sub categories;
check was done with mature reservoirs to see how well
prediction from the regression equations line up with (i) Analogues:
reality. Secondly, the equation was used to predict (ii) Performance Based Estimates.
recovery efficiency in green reservoirs and results
compared with other recovery factor estimation Analogues are widely used, particularly in initial field
methodology noting the standard deviation in both cases. development stages, when direct measurement information
The results compared favorably and could be used as an is limited. The methodology is based on the assumption
additional robustness check when estimating reservoir that the analogous reservoir is comparable to the subject
recovery factor for water drive reservoirs in the Niger reservoir regarding reservoir and fluid properties that
Delta. control ultimate recovery of petroleum and hence the RF.
Performance based estimates tend to be applied post field
2 SPE 167553
development stage, they include material balance, Literature Review of empirically derived oil
production decline, and other production performance recovery regression equations for estimation
analyses, after production commences and production of Oil Recovery Factors
rates and pressure information become available,
As highlighted in the abstract of this paper, empricially
performance-based methods can be applied to estimate
derived oil RF regression equations was first investigated
recovery factors. Generally performance based estimates
in 1967 by the American Petroleum Institute (API)
for recovery facors tend to provide more reliability and
subcommittee on recovery efficiency. The subcommittee
accuracy depending on the amount of performance data
used case histories from some 312 producing oil reservoirs
available. All other oil recovery factor analytical
with sandstone lithology from which certain empirical
estimation methods such as reservoir simulation and
relationships were derived by regression analysis. The
volumetrics can be used in either Analogue or
1 equations were developed for oil reservoirs depending on
performance based method to determine the RF . the dominant reservoir drive mechanism (e.g Water,
Solution Gas, Gas Cap), this resulted in a publication by
Empirical methods can be used at the pre/post field the API in a Bulletin D14 titled A Statistical Analysis of
development stages it involves estimating RF through the 2
Recovery Efficiency . The regression equation for water
use of mathematical regression equations between key
drive reservoirs taken from the publication is presented
subsurface parameters from multiple reservoirs with
below;
similar characteristics that are known to have an impact on
recoverable volumes.
+ 0 .0422 0 .0770
(1 S w ) k wi
At early field development stage data acquired from direct RF ( 54 . 898 )
Boi
measurement is not always available, analogues may not oi
also be easy to find and there may be little or no
performance data this can prove challenging in providing 0 . 2159
an initial estimate of RF to tag economic value of the field. pi
S w 0 . 1903
percent .......... 1
Empirical methods provide a quick and easy way to give pa
an initial estimate of RF with limited data within a given
tolerance so as to provide a framework for investment.
The ratios in the equation were defined as follows:
The main objectives of this study therefore include: (1 Sw)
To give a brief overview of the use of empirically 1. B oi Oil in place - Represents the
derived regression equations for estimating oil
portion of the rock volume occupied by stock
RFs.
tank oil at initial conditions for water drive cases.
To test the robustness of the empricially derived
oil RF regression equation for water drive k wi
reservoirs developed by API on Niger Delta 2. Mobility Factor - Represents the ratio of
oi
reservoirs supported by water drive using
statistical analysis to show how accurately the permeability in Darcies to the ratio of water to oil
equation predicts in Niger Delta environment. viscocity in centipoise under initial conditons for
water drive cases.
The scope of this paper is as follows:
3. Sw Water Saturation Represents the
Only empirically derived oil RF regression interstitial water saturation as a decimal fration of
equations developed by API considered, other the pore space.
regression equations for calculating recovering
factor not considered. pi
4. Pressure drop ratio Represents the
pa
Only empirically derived oil RF regression
ratio between initial and abandonment pressures
equations for reservoirs with dominant water
for water drive cases.
drive mechanism considered. Empirically
derived oil regression equations for other drive
Further work was done on the empirically derived oil RF
dominated systems such as solution gas and gas
regression equations by J.J Arps et al in the 1968 paper
cap drive reservoirs are considered in this paper. 3
titled Reasons for Differences in Recovery Efficiencies .
The work done by Arps grouped oil recoveries from 72
water drive case histories into four equal parts or quartiles
and statstically analysed each quartile. The observations
SPE 167553 3
reservoir as follows:
(1) Oil reservoirs that have estimated RF between 50 - Statistical analysis as shown in Figure 1.1 shows that
70%. the variance and standard deviation in the predicted
equation RF dataset is similar to actual RF dataset and
(2) Oil Reservoirs that have produced greater than or is very small in both cases less that 1. This means that
equal to 80% of estimated RF. both datasets have similar small error margins around
the mean and narrow uncertainty band. In addition,
The first condition selected as basis for technical maturity both datasets show the mean and median as having
is in line with typical ranges for oil RF for strong water exactly the same number. These attributes show that
drive reservoirs as written in J.J Arps paper and based on statiscally the two datasets can be modeled with a
local knowledge and understanding of what has Normal Distribution. This is demonstrated in Figure
realistically been seen in terms of oil recovery from 1.2 both datasets are converted to a normal
strong water drive reservoirs in the Niger Delta. The distribution and plotted on the same graph.
second condition represents an assumption which states
reservoirs that have produced greater than 80% of Skeweness is a measure of the degree of asymmetry
estimated RF would be deemed to be technically mature of a distribution around the mean. The skewness value
and as such was approximated to relflect the actual oil RF is low less than 0.1 for the actual RF dataset as well
of the reservoir. as the predicted RF dataset from the equation. This
illustrates that distribution around the mean is
Based on these definitions of technical maturity, a total of symmetrical once again confirming that both datasets
40 oil reservoirs were selected from the initial set of over fit a normal distribution and show that there is a good
200 oil reservoirs with strong water drive as having correlation between actual RF and predicted RF
satisfied these two conditions. The 40 reservoirs selected dataset calculated using the regression equations.
now represent the sample population of actual oil reservoir
RF from strong water drive reservoirs in the Niger Delta The final analysis done is to test the sensitivity impact of
that would be used for analysis. each of the input parameters into the regression equation
to find out which parameter is the most sensitive
Step 3 - Statistical Analysis and Benchmarking: The parameter that can cause an impact on the RF. This was
final stage of the robustness check involves using done by varying each of the input parameters by +/- 10%
statistical analysis on the sample set to check how the while keeping the other parameters constant and recording
predicition from empirical equations compare with actual the impact on the RF. The result is presented as a tornado
RF seen in oil reservoirs supported by strong water drive plot in Figure 1.3.
in the niger delta. Statistical analysis has been used
extensively in literature for providing benchmark on The result from the tornado plot clearly shows the pressure
effectiveness of empirically derived oil RF regression drop (pi/pa) is the most senstitive input parameter that
7
equations e.g Guthrie, R.I and Greenberger, M.H , affects the RF with an impact of +/-1.5% on the RF. It
8 means when using the equation care must be taken to
Sharma, A, Srinvasan, S, and Lake, L . These authors
have proven statistical analysis as a very effective ensure accurate estimates of initial and abandonment
mathematical tool for benchmarking oil RFs. reservoir pressure to ensure higher degree of confidence in
the result from the equation.
The first thing to be done with the sample dataset is to
estimate the oil RF using the regression equation for water The methodology presented in this section gives an insight
drive developed by API, with the input parameters for into the use of the oil RF regression equation for Niger
each of the 40 reservoirs. The result from the equation is Delta water drive reservoirs. Statistical analysis shows the
then compared with the actual oil RF from these level of accuracy and uncertainty of prediction as
reservoirs, the comparision is done using a cross-plot of compared with the actual recorded oil RF of these
actual vs predicted presented in Figure 1.0. The cross plot reservoirs. The next section of this paper will focus on the
done in Figure 1.0 shows relationship between the two application of this equation towards predicting the oil RF
datasets, the straight line equation returns an R-squared for green reservoirs and will compare results with RF
value of approximately 0.60. This shows that there is good estimated from reservoir simulation. This will be
correlation between the results predicted from the equation presented as a case study in the next section.
and the actual RF from the Niger Delta reservoirs.
Application on X100 green reservoir in the Table 1.0: X100 RF correlation input data
Niger Delta- Case Study: Input
S/no Values Unit
parameter
X100 reservoir is a green reservoir with five well 1 K 250 mD
penetrations lying at a depth of about 13,500 ftss below 2 Sw 24 %
four producing reservoirs(X20, X40, X60 and X80) in a 3 Boi 1.853 rb/stb
typical Niger Delta stacked reservoir system as shown in 4 0.16 %
Figure 1.4. Over 20 years historical production 5 wi 0.30 cp
performance from the above mentioned shallower 6 o 0.20 cp
reservoirs confirmed strong water drive as the primary 7 Pi 5997 psia
drive mechanism. X100 has uncharacteristic poor reservoir 8 Pa 5100 psia
quality with low Net-to-Gross, porosity and relatively
lower permeability (ca. 100mD to 250mD) by Niger Delta The oil recovery factor calculated from empirical
sand quality standards. Thus, identifying a suitable mature regression equation is 57.5%. This is about the same range
analogue for RF estimation for investment decision with the recovery factor calculated from the reservoir
purposes proved challenging. In the absence of suitable simulation model of 51.3%. This section shows estimation
analogue, a 3-D simulation model was developed to of oil recovery factor in strong water drive reservoirs using
estimate the RF for this reservoir and the result was complex simulation techniques can still be used to
calibrated with RF estimated from regression equation. compare with the empirical regression equations in the
Niger Delta although the regression equations tend to be
A static model was constructed for the X100 reservoir and more optimistic.
exported to dynamic reservoir simulator for evaluation of
development options. Based on the electro-facies analysis, Conclusions and Recommendations
the reservoir can be described as a lower shoreface deposit
with an average thickness of 51 ft with a 5ft thick laterally Accurate prediction of reservoir performance and
continuous intra-reservoir shale. Hence, the reservoir was hence RF is key in order to make sound investment
modeled as a three-zone reservoir, upper sand zone, the decisions with regards to oil field appraisal and
intra-reservoir shale and the basal sand unit. There are no development. Empirical oil regression equations
internal faults or barriers to flow in the model. 3-D developed by API provide a quick and simple way in
property model was built using log data from the five which oil RF can be estimated and used to support
wells that penetrated the reservoir. Two analytical other analytical methods of RF estimation.
aquifers, one in the South and one to the West side of the
The methodology utilised in this paper tests the
reservoir, were attached to the model based on the
effectiveness of the empirically derived oil regression
understanding of the boundary faults seen on seismic. The
equations for strong water drive in the Niger Delta
structural configuration shows reservoir exposed to aquifer
environment. The methodology used is applied in two
influx, this is shown in Figure 1.5 from the top structure
(2) key stages, robustness check and application. The
map of X100. No history match was necessary since X100
robustness check stage involves identifying, selecting
reservoir has not produced so far. Hydrostatic initialization
and benchmarking of actual RFs from technically
of the model showed the STOIIP of 9 MMstb. After
mature brown oil reservoirs with strong water drive
detailed sensitivity and optimization analysis, a crestally
support against calculated RF from same oil
located one-well development scenario was chosen as the
reservoirs with empirical regression equations using
selected concept and it is estimated to recover about 4
statistical analysis. The second stage involves a case
MMbbls of oil. This represents a recovery factor of about
study approach; Application of empirical regression
51.3%.
oil RF equation to a green reservoir in the Niger Delta
and compared results with an analytical RF estimation
The next step involves comparing the recovery factor
method namely reservoir simulation to see the margin
derived from reservoir simulation to empirically derived
of error utilizing two different estimation methods in a
regression equations for oil recovery factor for strong
green reservoir.
water drive reservoirs. This was done by selecting the
average reservoir and fluid properties and fed in as input Results from statistical analysis benchmarking done
into the regression equation. Table 1.0 below summarizes using data from over 40 strong water driven brown oil
the key input into the equation. reservoirs in the Niger Delta show that there is a
correlation between RFs estimated by empirical
equations and actual RFs from performance, both
datasets are normally distributed symmetrically
around a mean RF and compare favourably within one
standard deviation to the mean.
6 SPE 167553
Figure 1.0: Cross plot showing actual vs predicted Oil RF using Empirical
Correlations for Water Drive Reservoirs
8 SPE 167553