IGU World Gas LNG Report 2016 Edition

imported LNG for the first time in 2015, while three other the increase in supply will come from the Pacific Basin,
markets (Pakistan, Jordan, and Poland) also took in their first particularly southeast Asia and Australia. The majority of
cargoes this year. In total, these new markets pulled in 6.0 MT under-construction capacity in the US is not expected to be
in 2015 as Egypt set a new record for the fastest import completed until 2017 and later.
ramp-up ever. The four new markets added to the 29 existing
markets in 2014 to bring the total number of importing countries 3.2. LNG Exports by Country
to 33 (excluding Indonesia, which has only consumed Only 17 countries exported LNG in 2015, down from 19 in 2014.
domestically-produced LNG). This is owing to the suspension in exports from Angola and
Egypt, which were shut down for repair work and feedstock
The decline in European LNG consumption that has occurred loss, respectively. Despite the decrease in number of
since 2011 appears to have ended, with 2015 imports rising exporting countries, several new plants started up in 2015
by 4.6 MT as supply was redirected away from weaker which helped to increase total LNG trade by 4.7 MT. In
Asian markets and Asia-NBP price differentials narrowed Australia, QCLNG started commercial operations in early 2015
significantly. All but one European importer (France) registered and GLNG delivered its first commissioning cargo in October.
a YOY gain in 2015, with the UK showing the third-largest Indonesias Donggi-Senoro LNG also began operations in the
gain overall at 1.3 MT), causing the region to have the second half of 2015. In total, new plants added 6.0 MT to the
highest global YOY growth. In contrast, imports in many market in 2015, which were delivered to Asia, Asia-Pacific, and
North American and Latin American countries fell, owing the Middle East.
to increased pipeline supply availability (Mexico), improved
hydroelectric power generation (Brazil), and general economic
Figure 3.2. LNG Exports and Market Share by Country (in MTPA)
weakness (Argentina and Brazil). The two regions were down
a combined 1.8 MT. Qatar, 77.8, 31.8%
Australia, 29.4, 12%
Near-term LNG demand will reflect many of the same trends Malaysia, 25, 10.2%
that occurred in 2015. The Pacific basin will likely remain Nigeria, 20.4, 8.3%
the primary driver of demand growth despite recent signs of Indonesia, 16.1, 6.6%
weakness, owing to contracted supply ramp-ups. However Trinidad, 12.5, 5.1%
there are potential downsides to the outlook from more Algeria, 12.1, 5%
nuclear restarts in Japan and additional economic weakness Russia, 10.9, 4.5%
in Northeast Asia (particularly China). European demand Oman, 7.8, 3.2%
fundamentals are set to remain weak, but a large increase PNG, 7, 2.9%
in Intra-Pacific trade will likely shift more Atlantic and Middle Brunei, 6.6, 2.7%
East volumes to Europe, giving it significant growth potential. UAE, 5.6, 2.3%
Downward pressure on LNG prices from an expected Norway, 4.2, 1.7%
abundance of supply and lower oil prices could lead more Eq. Guinea, 3.8, 1.6%
countries and potentially higher-risk countries to quickly Peru, 3.7, 1.5%
enter the market, particularly through the utilization of FSRUs. Yemen, 1.5, 0.6%
US, 0.3, 0.1%
On the supply side, the first cargoes from the US Gulf Note: Numbers in the legend represent total 2015 exports in MT, followed by
of Mexico will be exported in 2016, but the majority of market share. Sources: IHS, IGU

2014-2015 LNG Trade in Review

Global LNG Trade LNG Exporters & Importers LNG Re-Exports LNG Prices

+4.7 MTPA +4 -1.7 MT -$7.18

Growth of Number of new LNG markets in Contraction in Change in average Northeast
global LNG trade 2015 re-exports in 2015 Asian spot price in MMBtu

Global LNG trade reached an
all-time high of 247 MT, rising
above the previous high of
242 MT set in 2011
For the first time since 2010,
Europe led overall demand
growth, followed by the
Middle East
No new countries began
exporting in 2015, but 4 new
markets Egypt, Jordan,
Pakistan, and Poland
imported their first cargoes
Two markets Egypt and
Angola ceased sending
out cargoes in 2015, though
Angola is expected to return
to the market in early 2016
Although three new markets
re-exported cargoes in 2015,
total re-exports fell owing
to diminished cross-basin
arbitrage potential
The number of countries
re-exporting LNG in 2015
rose to 12 with the addition of
the UK, Singapore, and India
The drop in oil prices and a
looser supply market led to
a ~50% decline in Northeast
Asian spot prices in 2015,
falling from an average
$15.01/MMBtu in 2014
to $7.83
Although the Pacific basin
maintained its premium over
Atlantic markets, differentials
narrowed significantly