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THAT A PIECE OF TOAST WILL LAND

BUTTERED SIDE DOWN ON NEW CARPET.

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.1

C Central Limit Theorem

C Statistical Distributions

Distributions be displayed on a continuous measurement scale. Examples:

normal, uniform, exponential, and Weibull distributions.

Discrete Distributions resulting from countable (attribute) data that has

Distributions a finite number of possible values. Examples: binomial,

Poisson, and hypergeometric distributions.

Decision Distribution used to make decisions and construct confidence

Distributions intervals. Examples: t, F, and chi-square distributions.

Parameter The true numeric population value, often unknown, estimated

by a statistic.

Population All possible observations of similar items from which a sample

is drawn.

Sample A randomly selected set of units or items drawn from a

population.

Statistic A numerical data value taken from a sample that may be used

to make an inference about a population.

(Omdahl, 2010)6

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.1

Analytical (Inferential) Studies

characteristics based on the information contained in a sample. Statistical inference

in a practical situation contains two elements: (1) the inference and (2) a measure

of its validity. The steps involved in statistical inference are:

C Decide if the problem will be evaluated by a one tail or two tail test

C Select a test distribution and a critical value of the test statistic reflecting the

degree of uncertainty that can be tolerated (the alpha, , risk)

the critical value. This step determines if the null hypothesis is to be rejected.

If the null is rejected, the alternate must be accepted.

Everyday, in our personal and professional lives, we are faced with decisions

between choice A or choice B. In most situations, relevant information is available;

but it may be presented in a form that is difficult to digest. Quite often, the data

seems inconsistent or contradictory. In these situations, an intuitive decision may

be little more than an outright guess.

While most people feel their intuitive powers are quite good, the fact is that

decisions made on gut-feeling are often wrong. The student should be aware that

the subjects of null hypothesis and types of errors are reviewed in Primer Section

IX.

* A substantial portion of the material throughout this Section comes from the CQE

Primer by Wortman (2012)10.

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.1

Enumeration (Descriptive) Studies

Enumerative data is data that can be counted. For example: the classification of

things, the classification of people into intervals of income, age or health. A census

is an enumerative collection and study. Useful tools for tests of hypothesis

conducted on enumerative data are the chi-square, binomial and Poisson

distributions.

performance in the future.

Descriptive Statistics

measures calculated from a sample are numerical, descriptive measures called

statistics. When these measures describe a population, they are called parameters.

Mean X

Standard Deviation s

Table 7.1 shows examples of statistics and parameters for the mean and standard

deviation. These two important measures are called central tendency and

dispersion.

Analytical studies start with the hypothesis statement made about population

parameters. A sample statistic is then used to test the hypothesis and either reject,

or fail to reject, the null hypothesis. At a stated level of confidence, one should then

be able to make inferences about the population.

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.2

Probability

Most quality theories use statistics to make inferences about a population based on

information contained in samples. The mechanism one uses to make these

inferences is probability. For a more expansive treatment of probability, see Triola

(1994)8 referenced at the end of this Section.

The probability of any event (E) lies between 0 and 1. The sum of the probabilities

of all possible events (E) in a sample space (S) = 1. The ratio of the chances favoring

an event to the total number of chances for and against the event. Probability (P) is

always a ratio.

Chances Favoring

P=

Chances Favoring Plus Chances Not Favoring

Simple Events

An event that cannot be decomposed is a simple event (E). The set of all sample

points for an experiment is called the sample space (S).

If an experiment is repeated a large number of times, (N), and the event (E) is

observed nE times, the probability of E is approximately:

nE

PE

N

Example 7.1: The probability of observing 3 on the toss of a single die is:

1

PE3 =

6

PET = P E1 + P E2 + P E3 + P E4 + P E5 + P E6

1 1 1 1 1 1

PET = + + + + + =1

6 6 6 6 6 6

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.2

Compound Events

Compound events are formed by a composition of two or more events. They consist

of more than one point in the sample space. For example, if two dice are tossed,

what is the probability of getting an 8? A die and a coin are tossed. What is the

probability of getting a 4 and tail? The two most important probability theorems are

the additive and multiplicative (covered later in this Section). For the following

discussion, EA = A and EB = B.

A. Union of A and B.

If A and B are two events in a sample space (S), the union of A and B (A c B)

contains all sample points in event A or B or both.

Example 7.3: In the die toss of Example 7.2, consider the following:

and B = E1, E3 and E5 (odd numbers), then A c B = E1, E2, E3 and E5.

B. Intersection of A and B.

If A and B are two events in a sample space (S), the intersection of A and B

(A 1 B) is composed of all sample points that are in both A and B.

E4 E6 E4 E6

E2 E2

A A

S E1 E3 S E1 E3

E5 B E5 B

AcB A1B

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.2

II. Event Relationships. There are three relationships in finding the probability of

an event: complementary, conditional and mutually exclusive.

A. Complement of an Event.

The complement of an event A is all sample points in the sample space (S),

but not in A. The complement of A is 1-PA.

(clear).

PA = 0.3 1 - PA = 0.7

B. Conditional Probabilities.

P A B

P A|B = if P B 0

P B

Example 7.6: If event A (rain) = 0.2, and event B (cloudiness) = 0.3, what is the

probability of rain on a cloudy day? (Note, it will not rain without clouds.)

P A B 0.2

P A|B = = = 0.67

P B 0.3

B = 0.3

independent if either: S A = 0.2

No Clouds = 0.7

P(A|B) = 0.67 and P(A) = 0.2 = no equality, and

P(B|A) = 1.00 and P(B) = 0.3 = no equality

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.2

C. Mutually Exclusive Events.

If event A contains no sample points in common with event B, then they are

said to be mutually exclusive.

Example 7.7: Obtaining a 3 and a 2 on the toss of a single die is a mutually exclusive

event. The probability of observing both events simultaneously is zero. The

probability of obtaining either a 3 or a 2 is:

1 1 1

PE2 + PE3 = + =

6 6 3

Event B: E1, E3, E5

B contain two sample points in common so they are not mutually exclusive. They

are not complementary because B does not contain all points in S that are not in A.

Does P A|B = P A ?

P A B 2/6 2 1

P A|B = = = P A =

P B 1/2 3 2

Therefore P A|B P A

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.2

If the two events are not mutually exclusive:

1. P (A c B) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A 1 B)

of A or B.

Example 7.9: If one owns two cars and the probability of each car starting on a cold

morning is 0.7, what is the probability of getting to work?

= 1.4 - 0.49

A AB B

= 0.91 = 91 %

If the two events are mutually exclusive, the law reduces to:

Example 7.10: If the probability of finding a black sock in a dark room is 0.4 and the

probability of finding a blue sock is 0.3, what is the chance of finding a blue or black

sock?

0.3 0.4 0.3

Note: The problem statements center around the word or. Will car A or B start?

Will one get a black sock or blue sock?

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/BASIC CONCEPTS III.B.2

If events A and B are dependent, the probability of A influences the probability of B.

This is known as conditional probability and the sample space is reduced.

P A B

1. P A|B = and P A B = P A|B P B

P B

Note, in some texts P(A 1 B) is shown as P(A C B) and is read as the probability of

A and B. P(B|A) is read as the probability of B given that A has occurred.

Example 7.11: If a shipment of 100 T.V. sets contains 30 defective units and two

samples are obtained, what is probability of finding both defective? (Event A is the

first sample and the sample space is reduced, and event B is the second sample.)

30 29 870

P A B = x = = 0.088

100 99 9900

P A B = 8.8 %

P (A 1 B) = P(A) X P(B)

Example 7.12: One relay in an electric circuit has a probability of working equal to

0.9. Another relay in series with the first has a chance of 0.8. What's the probability

that the circuit will work?

P (A 1 B) = 72%

Note: The problems center around the word and. Will T.V. A and B work? Will

relay A and B operate?

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM III.B.2

If a random variable X has mean and finite variance 2, as n increases, X

approaches a normal distribution with mean and variance 2X . Where,

2X

2X = and n is the number of observations on which each mean is based.

n

Normal Distribution

of Sample Means

F(x)

Distribution of

Individuals

Figure 7.3 Distributions of Individuals Versus Means

C The sample means (Xs) will be more normally distributed around than

individual readings (Xs). The distribution of sample means approaches

normal, regardless of the shape of the parent population. This is why X - R

control charts work!

C The spread in sample means (Xs) is less than Xs with the standard deviation

of Xs equal to the standard deviation of the population (individuals) divided

by the square root of the sample size. X is referred to as the standard error

of the mean:

s

X = X Which is estimated by sX = X

n n

Example 7.13: Assume the following are weight variation results: X = 20 grams and

s = 0.124 grams. Estimate X for a sample size of 4:

sX 0.124

Solution: sX = = = 0.062 grams

n 4

VII. MEASURE - PROBABILITY & STATISTICS BOK

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS/CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM III.B.2

The significance of the central limit theorem on control charts is that the distribution

of sample means approaches a normal distribution. Refer to Figure 7.4 below:

n=2 n=2

n=2

n=2

n=4 n=4

n=4 n=4

n = 25

n = 25 n = 25

n = 25

(Lapin, 1982)5

sampling distribution of

X as n increases. For most distributions (but not all), a near

normal sampling distribution is attained with a sample size of 4 or 5.

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