Sudfwlfh Sureohpv Zlwk Vroxwlrqv Iru Wrslf 44

Sureohpv= Erglh Ndqh Pdufxv= :14 wr :1;/ :143 wr :146/ :148/ :149/ :14:/ :155
Wkh iroorzlqj gdwd dsso| wr Txhvwlrqv ENP :14 wkurxjk ENP :1;=
D shqvlrq ixqg pdqdjhu lv frqvlghulqj wkuhh pxwxdo ixqgv1 Wkh uvw lv d vwrfn ixqg/ wkh vhfrqg lv d orqj0whup
jryhuqphqw dqg frusrudwh erqg ixqv/ dqg wkh wklug lv d W0eloo prqh| pdunhw ixqg wkdw |lhogv d udwh ri <(=
Wkh suredelolw| glvwulexwlrq ri wkh ulvn| ixqgv lv dv iroorzv=

H{shfwhg Uhwxuq Vwdqgdug Ghyldwlrq

Vwrfn Ixqg +V, 55( 65(
Erqg Ixqg +E, 46( 56(

Wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh ixqg uhwxuqv lv =48=

ENP :14

Zkdw duh wkh lqyhvwphqw sursruwlrqv ri wkh plqlpxp yduldqfh sruwirolr ri wkh wzr ulvn| ixqgv/ dqg zkdw lv
wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri lwv udwh ri uhwxuqB
ENP :15

Wdexodwh dqg gudz wkh lqyhvwphqw rssruwxqlw| vhw ri wkh wzr ulvn| ixqgv1 Xvh lqyhvwphqw sursruwlrqv iru wkh
vwrfn ixqgv ri }hur wr 433( lq lqfuhphqwv ri 53(
ENP :16

Gudz d wdqjhqw irup wkh ulvn0iuhh udwh wr wkh rssruwxqlw| vhw1 Zkdw grhv |rxu judsk vkrz iru wkh h{shfwhg
uhwxuq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh rswlpdo sruwirolrB
ENP :17

Vroyh qxphulfdoo| iru wkh sursruwlrqv ri hdfk dvvhw/ dqg iru wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh
rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolr1
ENP :18

Zkdw lv wkh uhzdug0wr0yduldelolw| udwlr ri wkh ehvw ihdvleoh FDOB

ENP :19

\rx uhtxluh wkdw |rxu sruwirolr |lhog dq h{shfwhg uhwxuq ri 48(> dqg wkdw lw eh h!flhqw rq wkh ehvw ihdvleoh
FDO1
d1 Zkdw lv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri |rxu sruwirolrB
e1 Zkdw lv wkh sursruwlrq lqyhvwhg lq wkh W0eloo ixqg dqg hdfk ri wkh wzr ulvn| ixqgvB
ENP :1:

Li |rx zhuh wr xvh rqo| wkh wzr ulvn| ixqgv/ dqg vwloo uhtxluh dq h{shfwhg uhwxuq ri 48(> zkdw pxvw eh wkh
lqyhvwphqw sursruwlrqv ri |rxu sruwirolrB Frpsduh lwv vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq wr wkdw ri wkh rswlpl}hg sruwirolr lq
Txhvwlrq 91 Zkdw gr |rx frqfoxghB
ENP :1;

Vxssrvh wkdw |rx idfh wkh vdph rssruwxqlw| vhw/ exw |rx fdqqrw eruurz1 \rx zlvk wr frqvwuxfw d sruwirolr
zlwk dq h{shfwhg uhwxuq ri 5<(= Zkdw duh wkh dssursuldwh sruwirolr sursruwlrqv dqg wkh uhvxowlqj vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrqvB Zkdw uhgxfwlrq lq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq frxog |rx dwwdlq li |rx zhuh doorzhg wr eruurz dw wkh ulvn0iuhh
udwhB

4
ENP :143

Vxssrvh wkdw wkhuh duh pdq| vwrfnv lq wkh pdunhw dqg wkdw wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri Vwrfnv D dqg E duh jlyhq dv
iroorzv=
Vwrfn H{shfwhg Uhwxuq Vwdqgdug Ghyldwlrq
D 43( 8(
E 48( 43(
Fruuhodwlrq @ 4

Vxssrvh wkdw lw lv srvvleoh wr eruurz dw wkh ulvn0iuhh udwh/ us = Zkdw pxvw eh wkh ydoxh ri wkh ulvn0iuhh udwhB
+Klqw= Wklqn derxw frqvwuxfwlqj d ulvn0iuhh sruwirolr iurp Vwrfnv D dqg E1,
ENP :144

Dvvxph wkdw h{shfwhg uhwxuqv dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv iru doo vhfxulwlhv +lqfoxglqj wkh ulvn0iuhh iru eruurzlqj
dqg ohqglqj, duh nqrzq1 Lq wklv fdvh/ doo lqyhvwruv zloo kdyh wkh vdph rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolr1 +Wuxh ru idovhB,
ENP :145

Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh sruwirolr lv dozd|v htxdo wr wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv ri
wkh dvvhwv lq wkh sruwirolr1 +Wuxh ru idovhB,
ENP :146

Vxssrvh wkdw |rx kdyh d surmhfw wkdw kdv d =: fkdqfh ri grxeolqj |rxu lqyhvwphqw lq d |hdu dqg d =6 fkdqfh
ri kdoylqj |rxu lqyhvwphqw lq d |hdu1 Zkdw lv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh udwh ri uhwxuq rq wklv lqyhvwphqwB

Wkh iroorzlqj gdwd dsso| wr txhvwlrqv ENP :148 wkurxjk ENP :14:1
Khqqhvv| ) Dvvrfldwhv pdqdjhv d '63 ploolrq htxlw| sruwirolr iru wkh pxowlpdqdjhu Zlovwhdg Shqvlrq Ixqg1
Mdvrq Mrqhv/ qdqfldo ylfh suhvlghqw ri Zlovwhdg/ qrwhg wkdw Khqqhvv| kdg udwkhu frqvlvwhqwo| dfklhyhg wkh
ehvw uhfrug dprqj wkh Zlovwhdg*v vl{ htxlw| pdqdjhuv1 Shuirupdqfh ri wkh Khqqhvv| sruwirolr kdg ehhq fohduo|
vxshulru wr wkdw ri wkh V)S 833 lq irxu ri wkh sdvw yh |hduv1 Lq wkh rqh ohvv idyrudeoh |hdu/ wkh vkruwidoo zdv
wulyldo1
Khqqhvv| lv d erwwrp0xs pdqdjhu1 Wkh up odujho| dyrlgv dq| dwwhpsw wr 44wlph wkh pdunhw1 Lw dovr
irfxvhv rq vhohfwlrq ri lqglylgxdo vwrfnv/ udwkhu wkdq wkh zhljkwlqj ri idyruhg lqgxvwulhv1
Wkhuh lv qr dssduhqw frqiruplw| ri vw|oh dprqj wkh vl{ htxlw| pdqdjhuv1 Wkh yh pdqdjhuv rwkhu wkdq
Khqqhvv|/ pdqdjh sruwirolrv djjuhjdwlqj '583 ploolrq pdgh xs ri pruh wkdq 483 lqglylgxdo lvvxhv1
Mrqhv lv frqylqfhg wkdw Khqqhvv| lv deoh wr dsso| vxshulru vnloo wr vwrfn vhohfwlrq/ exw wkh idyrudeoh uhwxuqv
duh olplwhg e| wkh kljk ghjuhh ri glyhuvlfdwlrq lq wkh sruwirolr1 Ryhu wkh |hduv/ wkh sruwirolr jhqhudoo| khog
73 0 83 vwrfnv/ zlwk derxw 5( wr 6( ri wrwdo ixqgv frpplwwhg wr hdfk lvvxh1 Wkh uhdvrq Khqqhvv| vhhphg
wr gr zhoo prvw |hduv zdv ehfdxvh wkh up zdv deoh wr lghqwli| hdfk |hdu 43 ru 45 lvvxhv zklfk uhjlvwhuhg
sduwlfxoduo| odujh jdlqv1
Edvhg rq wklv ryhuylhz/ Mrqhv rxwolqhg wkh iroorzlqj sodq wr wkh Zlovwhdg shqvlrq frpplwwhh=
Ohw*v whoo Khqqhvv| wr olplw wkh sruwirolr wr qr pruh wkdq 53 vwrfnv1 Khqqhvv| zloo grxeoh wkh frpplwphqwv wr wkh vwrfnv

wkdw lw uhdoo| idyruv/ dqg holplqdwh wkh uhpdlqghu1 H{fhsw iru wklv rqh qhz uhvwulfwlrq1 Khqqhvv| vkrxog eh iuhh wr pdqdjh

wkh sruwirolr h{dfwo| dv ehiruh1

Doo wkh phpehuv ri wkh shqvlrq frpplwwhh jhqhudoo| vxssruwhg Mrqhv*v sursrvdo ehfdxvh doo djuhhg wkdw
Khqqhvv| kdg vhhphg wr ghprqvwudwh vxshulru vnloo lq vhohfwlqj vwrfnv1 \hw/ wkh sursrvdo zdv d frqvlghudeoh
ghsduwxuh irup suhylrxv sudfwlfh/ dqg vhyhudo frpplwwhh phpehuv udlvhg txhvwlrqv1

5
ENP :148

d1 Zloo wkh olplwdwlrqv ri 53 vwrfnv olnho| lqfuhdvh ru ghfuhdvh wkh ulvn ri wkh sruwirolrB H{sodlq1
e1 Lv wkhuh dq| zd| Khqqhvv| frxog uhgxfh wkh qxpehu ri lvvxhv iurp 73 wr 53 zlwkrxw vljqlfdqwo| dhfwlqj
ulvnB H{sodlq1
ENP :149

Rqh frpplwwhh phpehu zdv sduwlfxoduo| hqwkxvldvwlf frqfhuqlqj Mrqhv*v sursrvdo1 Kh vxjjhvwhg wkdw Khq0
qhvv|*v shuirupdqfh pljkw ehqhw ixuwkhu iurp uhgxfwlrq lq wkh qxpehu ri lvvxhv wr 43= Li wkh uhgxfwlrq wr eh
53 frxog eh h{shfwhg wr eh dgydqwdjhrxv/ h{sodlq zk| uhgxfwlrq wr 43 pljkw eh ohvv olnho| wr eh dgydqwdjhrxv1
+Dvvxph wkdw Zlovwhdg zloo hydoxdwh wkh Khqqhvv| sruwirolr lqghshqghqwo| ri wkh rwkhu sruwirolrv lq wkh ixqg1,
ENP :14:

Dqrwkhu frpplwwhh phpehu vxjjhvwhg wkdw/ udwkhu wkdq hydoxdwh hdfk pdqdjhg sruwirolr lqghshqghqwo| ri
rwkhu sruwirolrv/ lw pljkw eh ehwwhu wr frqvlghu wkh hhfwv ri d fkdqjh lq wkh Khqqhvv| sruwirolr rq wkh wrwdo
ixqg1 H{sodlq krz wklv eurdghu srlqw ri ylhz frxog dhfw wkh frpplwwhh ghflvlrq wr olplw wkh kroglqj lq wkh
Khqqhvv| sruwirolr wr hlwkhu 43 ru 53 lvvxhv1
ENP :155

Zklfk vwdwhphqw derxw sruwirolr glyhuvlfdwlrq lv fruuhfwB

d1 Surshu glyhuvlfdwlrq fdq uhgxfh ru holplqdwh v|vwhpdwlf ulvn1
e1 Glyhuvlfdwlrq uhgxfhv wkh sruwirolr*v h{shfwhg uhwxuq ehfdxvh lw uhgxfhv wkh sruwirolr*v wrwdo ulvn1
f1 Dv pruh vhfxulwlhv duh dgghg wr d sruwirolr/ wrwdo ulvn zrxog w|slfdoo| eh h{shfwhg wr idoo dw d ghfuhdvlqj
udwh1
g1 Wkh ulvn0uhgxflqj ehqhwv ri glyhuvlfdwlrq gr qrw rffxu phdqlqjixoo| xqwlo dw ohdvw 63 lqglylgxdo vhfxulwlhv
duh lqfoxghg lq wkh sruwirolr1
Vroxwlrqv=

ENP :14

Wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh rssruwxqlw| vhw duh=

H +ur , @ 55(> H +u , @ 46(>  7 @ 65(>   @ 56(>  @ =48
Iurp wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv dqg wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw zh jhqhudwh wkh fryduldqfh pdwul{ ^qrw wkdw
Fry +u7 > u , @  7   `=

Erqgv Vwrfnv
Erqgv 85<13 44317
Vwrfnv 44317 435713

Wkh plqlpxp yduldqfh sruwirolr lv irxqg e| dsso|lqj wkh irupxod=

2  Fry+E> V ,
z ? +V , @
27 .  2  5Fry +E> V ,
85<  443=7
@ @ =6475
4357 . 85<  5+443=7,
z ? +E , @ =9;8;

6
Wkh plqlpxp yduldqfh sruwirolr phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq duh=

H +u ? , @ =6475+55, . =9;8;+46, @ 48=;6(

k l
 ? @ Z72 27 . Z2  2 . 5Z7 Z Fry+V> E , 2

k l
@ =64752+4357, . =9;8;2+85<, . 5+=6475,+=9;8;,+443=7, @ 4<=<7( 2

ENP :15

( lq vwrfnv ( lq erqgv H{s1 uhwxuq Vwg ghy1

33=33 433=33 46=33 56=33
53=33 ;3=33 47=;3 53=6: plqlpxp yduldqfh
64=75 9;=8; 48=;6 4<=<7
73=33 93=33 49=93 53=4; wdqjhqf| sruwirolr
93=33 73=33 4;=73 55=83
:3=:8 5<=58 4<=6: 57=8:
;3=33 53=33 53=53 59=9;
433=33 33=33 55=33 65=33
ENP :16

Wkh judsk dssur{lpdwhv wkh srlqwv=

H +u, 
Plq1 Ydu Si1 49( 53(
Wdqjhqf| Si1 4<( 58(

25
Expected Rate of Return (%)

20 S (all stocks)
P

15
Min
B (all bonds)
10

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Standard Deviation (%)

ENP :17

7
Wkh sursruwlrq ri vwrfnv lq wkh rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolr lv jlyhq e|=
Z7 @
^H+u7 ,  us ` 2  ^H+u ,  us ` Fry+E> V ,
^H+u7 ,  us ` 2 . ^H+u ,  us ` 27  ^H+u7 ,  us . H+u ,  us ` Fry+E> V ,
@ +55  <,85< .+55+46 <,85<  +46  <,443=7
<,4357  ^55  < . 46  <` 443=7 @ =:3:8
Z @ =5<58
Wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolr duh=
H +uR , @ =:3:8+55, . =5<58+46, @ 4<=6:(
R @ ^=:3:82 +4357, . =5<582 +85<, . 5+=:3:8,+=5<58,+443=7,` 2 @ 57=8:(

ENP :18

Wkh uhzdug0wr0yduldelolw| udwlr ri wkh rswlpdo FDO lv=

H +uR ,  us
R
@ 4<57
=6:  <
=8:
@ =7554

ENP :19

d1 Li |rx uhtxluh |rxu sruwirolr wr |lhog d phdq uhwxuq ri 48( |rx fdq qg wkh fruuhvsrqglqj vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
iurp wkh rswlpdo FDO1 Wkh irupxod iru wklv FDO lv=

H +u , @ us . H+uR,  us  @ < . =7554

R

Vhwwlqj H +u , htxdo wr 48( zh qg wkdw wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh rswlpdo sruwirolr lv 47=54(=
e1 Wr qg wkh sursruwlrq lqyhvwhg lq W0eloov zh uhphpehu wkdw wkh phdq ri wkh frpsohwh sruwirolr/ 48(> lv
dq dyhudjh ri wkh W0eloo udwh dqg wkh rswlpdo frpelqdwlrq ri wkh vwrfnv dqg erqgv/ S1 Ohw | eh wkh sursruwlrq
lq wklv sruwirolr1 Wkh phdq ri dq| sruwirolr dorqj wkh rswlpdo FDO lv=
H +u , @ +4  |,us . |H +uR , @ us . | ^H+uR,  us ` @ < . |+4<=6:  <,
Vhwwlqj H +u , @ 48( zh qg= | @ =8:;:> dqg 4  | @ =7546> wkh sursruwlrq lq W0eloov1
Wr qg wkh sursruwlrqv lqyhvwhg lq hdfk ri wkh vwrfn dqg erqg ixqgv zh pxowlso| =8:;: e| wkh sursruwlrqv ri
wkh vwrfnv dqg erqgv lq wkh rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolr=
Sursruwlrq ri vwrfnv lq frpsohwh sruwirolr @ =8:;:  =:3:8 @ =73<7
Sursruwlrq ri erqgv lq frpsohwh sruwirolr @ =8:;:  =5<58 @ =49<6
ENP :1:

Xvlqj rqo| wkh vwrfn dqg erqg ixqgv wr dfklhyh d sruwirolr phdq ri 48( zh pxvw qg wkh dssursuldwh sursruwlrq
lq wkh vwrfn ixqg/ z7 > dqg z @ 4  z7 lq wkh erqg ixqg1 Wkh sruwirolr phdq zloo eh=
48 @ 55z7 . 46+4  z7 , @ 46 . <z7 > dqg z7 @ =5555

8
Vr wkh sursruwlrqv zloo eh 55=55( lq vwrfnv dqg ::=:;( lq erqgv1 Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wklv sruwirolr zloo
eh=  
 R @ =55552 +4357, . =:::;2+85<, . 5+=5555,+=:::;,+443=7, 2 @ 53=55(

Wklv lv frqvlghudeo| odujhu wkdq wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 47=54( dfklhyhg xvlqj W0eloov dqg wkh rswlpdo
sruwirolr1

ENP :1;

Zlwk qr rssruwxqlw| wr eruurz |rx zlvk wr frqvwuxfw d sruwirolr zlwk d phdq ri 5<(= Vlqfh wklv h{fhhgv wkh
phdq rq wkh vwrfnv ri 55(> |rx zloo kdyh wr jr vkruw rq erqgv/ zklfk kdyh d phdq ri 46(> dqg xvh wkh
surfhhgv wr ex| dgglwlrqdo vwrfn1

Wkh judsklfdo uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri wkh sureohp lv=

30

Q
25
Expected Rate of Return (%)

20 S

15

B
10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Standard Deviation (%)

Srlqw T lv wkh vwrfn2erqg frpelqdwlrq zlwk phdq ri 5<(= z7 Ohw eh wkh sursruwlrq ri vwrfnv dqg 4  z7 eh
wkh sursruwlrq ri erqgv uhtxluhg wr dfklhyh wkh 5<( phdq1 Wkhq=

5< @ z7 . 46+4  z7 , @ 46 . <z7

z7 @ 4=:;> 4  z7 @ =:;
dqg

Wkhuhiruh/ |rx zrxog kdyh wr vhoo vkruw dq dprxqw ri erqgv htxdo wr =:; ri |rxu wrwdo ixqgv/ dqg lqyhvw 4=:;
wlphv |rxu wrwdo ixqgv lq vwrfnv1 Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wklv sruwirolr zrxog eh=

k l
' @ 4=:;2+4357, . +=:;,2+85<, . 5+4=:;,+=:;,+443=7, @ 8:=3<( 2

Li |rx zhuh doorzhg wr eruurz dw wkh ulvn0iuhh udwh ri <(> wkh zd| wr dfklhyh wkh wdujhw 5<( zrxog eh wr lqyhvw
pruh wkdq 433( ri |rxu ixqgv lq wkh rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolr/ prylqj rxw dorqj wkh FDO wr wkh uljkw ri S/ xs
wr U/ rq wkh iroorzlqj judsk1

9
U lv wkh srlqw rq wkh rswlpdo FDO zklfk kdv wkh phdq ri 5<(= Xvlqj wkh irupxod iru wkh rswlpdo FDO zh fdq
qg wkh fruuhvsrqglqj vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq=
H +u, @ < . =7554

Vhwwlqj H +u, @ 5<> zh jhw=  @ 7:=6;(> zklfk lv frqvlghudeo| ohvv wkdq wkh 8:=3<( vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq |rx
zrxog jhw zlwkrxw wkh srvvlelolw| ri eruurzlqj dw wkh ulvn0iuhh udwh ri <(=
Zkdw lv wkh sruwirolr frpsrvlwlrq ri srlqw U rq wkh rswlpdo FDOB Wkh phdq ri dq| sruwirolr dorqj wklv FDO
lv=
H +u, @ us . |+uR  us ,

zkhuh | lv wkh sursruwlrq lqyhvwhg lq wkh rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolr S dqg uR lv wkh phdq ri wkdw sruwirolr/ zklfk
lv 4<=6:(=
5< @ < . |+4<=6:  <,
| @ 4=<5;9

Wklv phdqv wkdw iru hyhu| 74 ri |rxu rzq ixqgv lqyhvwhg lq sruwirolr S/ |rx zrxog eruurz '=<6 dqg lqyhvw lw
dovr lq sruwirolr S1
ENP :143

Vlqfh D dqg E duh shuihfwo| qhjdwlyho| fruuhodwhg/ d ulvn0iuhh sruwirolr fdq eh fuhdwhg dqg lwv udwh ri uhwxuq
lq htxloleulxp zloo eh wkh ulvn0iuhh udwh1 Wr qg wkh sursruwlrqv ri wklv sruwirolr +zlwk z lqyhvwhg lq D dqg
z @ 4  z lq E,/ vhw wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq htxdo wr }hur1 Zlwk shuihfw qhjdwlyh fruuhodwlrq/ wkh sruwirolr
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq uhgxfhv wr
  @ Dev ^z    z  `
3 @ 8z  43+4  z ,
z @ =999:

Wkh h{shfwhg udwh ri uhwxuq rq wklv ulvn0iuhh sruwirolr lv=

H +u, @ =999:+43, . =6666+48, @ 44=9:(

Wkhuhiruh/ wkh ulvn0iuhh udwh pxvw dovr eh 44=9:(=

ENP :144

Idovh1 Li wkh eruurzlqj dqg ohqglqj udwhv duh qrw lghqwlfdo/ wkhq ghshqglqj rq wkh wdvwhv ri wkh lqglylgxdov +wkdw
lv/ wkh vkdsh ri wkhlu lqglhuhqfh fxuyhv,/ eruurzhuv dqg ohqghuv frxog kdyh glhuhqw rswlpdo ulvn| sruwirolrv1
ENP :145

Idovh1 Rqo| lq wkh vshfldo fdvh wkdw doo dvvhwv duh shuihfwo| srvlwlyho| fruuhodwhg / zloo wkh sruwirolr vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq uhgxfh wr wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh frpsrqhqw0dvvhw vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv1 Rwkhuzlvh/ dv wkh
irupxod iru sruwirolr vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv +htxdwlrqv :16 ru :14, vkrz/ wkh sruwirolr vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv ohvv
wkdq wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh frpsrqhqw0dvvhw vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv1 Wkh sruwirolr yduldqfh zloo eh d
zhljkwhg vxp ri wkh hohphqwv lq wkh fryduldqfh pdwul{/ zlwk wkh surgxfwv ri wkh sruwirolr sursruwlrqv dv
zhljkwv1
ENP :146

Wkh suredelolw| glvwulexwlrq lv=

:
 Suredelolw| Udwh ri Uhwxuq
=: 433(
=6 83(
Phdq @ =:+433, . =6+=8, @ 88(
Yduldqfh @ =:+433  88,2 . =6+83  88,2 @ 7:58
Vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq @ 7:58 2

@ 9;=:7(
ENP :148

d1 Uhvwulfwlqj wkh sruwirolr wr 53 vwrfnv udwkhu wkdq 73083 zloo lqfuhdvh wkh ulvn ri wkh sruwirolr/ exw srvvleo| qrw
e| pxfk1 Li/ iru lqvwdqfh/ wkh 83 vwrfnv lq d xqlyhuvh kdg wkh vdph vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ > dqg wkh fruuhodwlrq
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dprqj wkh 53 vwrfnv wkdw uhpdlq lq klv sruwirolr1 Wklv hqwdlov pdlqwdlqlqj d orz fruuhodwlrq dprqj wkh
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ENP :149

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ENP :14:

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ENP :155

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