Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 16

339.5 ..

,
65.428 - , ,
-711 , ,
, -
- .


-

.
, -
,
.. ( -
).
-
.
, ,
,
, -
, , ,
, - .
: , , ,
, , , , .

Prospects for Russias export expansion and its state support


A.N. Spartak,
Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economic Sciences,
Honored Worker of Science of RF, Russian Foreign Trade Academy,
Department of international trade and foreign trade of the RF - the Head

Abstract
The article reveals opportunities for the increase in Russian exports to rapidly growing mar-
kets of developing countries with a view of large-scale changes in their economies and structure
of demand. The following developments are emphasized: dynamic rise of middle class and con-
sumption expenditures in China and India, increasing comfortable demand for Russian industrial
and agricultural goods, business services on part of the so called second echelon highly populated
developing countries (with due regard of Russias competitive and technological capacities). Con-

5 - 2017 3

ceptual and practical suggestions for the provision of Russian export expansion by means of state
support instruments are formulated, viz.: consistent export diversification policy, integration of
export development issues into wider industrial policy, coordinated use of all support instru-
ments, shift of export policy focus directly to exporters, complex measures for the promotion of
most favoured policy principle for the exporters in regulatory, financial, administrative, organiza-
tional, trade policy and other spheres.
Keywords: exports, export expansion, developing countries, middle class, demand, diversifica-
tion, export support, instruments.

1

,
, , -
-
. -
.
-
.
.
-
: , 2017-2018 . 7,5
. , ,
. -
,
,
(.. )
, .
,
, ,
. , Brexit
,
-.

,
, -
.
1
.. . // -
, 4, 2017, . 3-13.

4 5 - 2017

(
,
- -
,
, , .) ,
-
-
.

.

( ), ,
, , 1,5 2025 . (-
2015 .) 3 2035 . -
( )
, , 1,6 2025 . 3,3 2035 .
.

-
- , -
, .,
.
-
-
.
, 2022 . 850 .
( 200 ), 60% . -
(
) 3% 2002
. 17% 2012 . 62% 2022 .2.
, ( 2000-
18% ), 2017 ., ,
5 .
, -
, , ,
, , .

2
He, Tianjie; Astrove, Julian. Chinas Middle Income Consumers: China-Britain Business
Council, 2014. [ ] : http://www.cbbc.org/NetC.CBBC/
cbbc/09/09a6d7b2-1956-45e3-aa1b-bf3944b1519f.pdf

5 - 2017 5

( -
, , , , -
, , , ), , -
, , .
, ,
. ,
35 . 2019 . ,
20% -
5 , ;
.
7
14 . -
, 2018 . 210 .
.

, , -
.
, -
2016 . 2014 . ( 2014 .
) 2016 . -
5 .

1
( .)

2016
2014 2015 2016
2014, %

8703-
7 76 158 2409,2

1201- ,
21 116 121 588,6

1512- ,
9 40 107 1182,4

8904- - - - 75 -

8543- ,
11 8 71 673,2

1806-
4 24 66 1611,6
,

6 5 - 2017

2016
2014 2015 2016
2014, %
1507- 2 31 53 3089,7
8609- (
2 1 52 2542,9
)
9032-
7 3 40 620,4

1905-, ,
1 8 37 5782,2

8479- ,
4 5 23 566,9

8481-, ,
, 3 43 19 691,2

1204- ,
- - 15 -

8537-, , , ,
2 5 12 533,5

8501-
2 1 12 586,8
( )
8405-
0 1 11 14818,2

1704-
( ), 0 2 7 1383,5

2202-,
, 1 4 6 556,1
-
2105-
1 1 5 995,2
,
8705-
1 1 5 588,1

6815-
1 1 5 867,9

: ( ). [
] : http://stat.customs.ru/apex/f?p=201:1:591070819332865

5 - 2017 7

2010- 24
, 3% . -
, Economist Intelligence Unit, 2,5 .
2018/19 .., McKinsey Global Institute 2025 .
5- ( 2015 . 12- ).
, , ,
20% 2018/19 .. 3 .
, -

. , 16%
-.
PricewaterhouseCoopers 2050 .
,
, 103,3 . ( 2014 .), 2014 .
4 . 1,4 ,
(73,8 .)3.
-
, , -
, (
30-40 ) (
, , , , , , , -
, , , , , , , , , -
, , , , , , , , .).
PricewaterhouseCoopers
2050 . ( -
9- 4-, 20- 9-),
( 25- 15- ), ( 22- 16-),
( 28- 20-), ( 32- 22-), ( 31- 23-
), ( 27- 24-). 8 PwC
2050 . 41,7 . (41,4
.)4. PwC 32 2014 .,
, .
.
3
The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? PwC projections for
2030 and 2050. 2015 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, . 3. [ ] -
: http://www.pwc.com/vn/en/publications/2014/world_in_2050.pdf
4
Ibid, 2015, pp. 3. 14.

8 5 - 2017

2
14 32 2014
. 2050 . (
2014-2050 .)





2050 .
,
, % 2014. (
%
, % . )
2,5 2,9 5,4 7345
0,3 5,0 5,3 3430
0,7 4,4 5,1 3367
0,7 4,2 4,9 42205
1,3 3,2 4,5 3516
0,7 3,7 4,3 12210
1,1 3,3 4,3 4253

0,5 3,7 4,2 3026
1,1 3,1 4,1 4239
0,9 3,2 4,1 3327
0,7 3,4 4,1 2785
0,6 3,0 3,6 8014
-0,2 3,7 3,5 3510
0,0 3,4 3,4 61079
:
0,6 1,8 2,4 41384
-0,5 2,6 2,1 7575
-0,4 1,9 1,5 6338
-0,5 1,8 1,4 7914
: The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? PwC
projections for 2030 and 2050. 2015 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, p. 3, 18. [
] : http://www.pwc.com/vn/en/publications/2014/world_in_2050.pdf

-
15 4,5 . ,
- .. , 2050 . 90% -
65% -
5. :
5
-: . . . ., .. .:
2013, .28.

5 - 2017 9

0,7 ., 2030 .,
, 2,2 .
: 2014 . -
64 .
2020 . 100 . ,
,

6. -
.

, ,

-
, ,
, ,
. ,
, , , -
, , , .
,

.
, ,
, -
. -
.. ,
- -
. () ,
,
.7.

-
. -
, -
,


6
.. - // -
. . 2016. 2.
. 206.
7
, 2016. 2, C. 210.

10 5 - 2017

, , -
-

2035 ., , 1,5 .
2-2,5 2025 . 4,5-5
2035 .
-
-
,
8. -

.
, -
. -
2017 . -
. , 2025-2030 .
, , -
, . 700
.

1,5%. -
, .
,
-
:
--
, -
;
, ,
,
, ;
,
-
-
9;
8
. .. . // -
, 9, 2016, . 7-20.
9
. .., .., .. : -
, . .: , 2015. 384
.

5 - 2017 11


10.
, ,
- ,
-
.
- -
-
.
-
.
. -
. -

() .

, , -
.
, -
:
1) -, -
;
2) ,
;
3) -
( -
, /
, , -
, .);
4) ,
( ,
-
).
-
, -

. .. . // -
10

, 11, 2016, . 31-41.

12 5 - 2017

-
. ,
-
. -
-
.
( 2025 .) -
, -
,
,
, ,
,
.
-
, -
, .
-
- . -
- .
( 2035 .) -
,
( -
-
).
-
, --
. -

- -
.
- .
-
-
-
.
, -
. , (,
), ( -
).

5 - 2017 13

-
,
-
.
, -
, . -
, ,
-
, , , -
.
,
-
, -
.

, -
(, -
), , -
,
( ). , -
, ,
(reverse trade missions), -
, ,
.
-
. , -
. -
(
, ,
, .) -
. -
.
.
, , -
,
. -
.
, -
. -
,

14 5 - 2017

, ,
, . -
, -
, . -

,
, -
, .
()
(1) ,
,
; (2) -
,
; (3) , -
; (4)
- , ,
; (5) , -
, -
- ; (6)
-
, -
; (7)

.
-
.
-
, -
.
( ), -
.
-
, ( ,
). -

-
- .
, -
, ,
, . -

5 - 2017 15

( )
- -
.
-
-
. ,
(
, -, -
),
, -
(
).
-
( -
, , , .).
,

-
- ()
, -
- .
, -
- .
-
( ),
( -, -
, , -
, ).
-
11, -
,

.
-
. -

11
. .., .., ..
. // -
, 3, 2017, cc. 6-26.

16 5 - 2017



. -
-
, -
; .
(,
)
,
.
-
.
-

. -
, -

, ,
( / -
), -
, ,
- -
. -
.
:
: . .
/ . .. . .: , 2016. 296
. (Vneshnejekonomicheskie svjazi Rossii: sovremennye vyzovy i vozmozhnye otvety. Koll.
monograja / Pod red. V.P. Obolenskogo. M.: Institut jekonomiki RAN, 2016. 296 S.)
.. - // -
. . 2016. 2.
. 203-214 (Korendjasov E.N. Rossijsko-afrikanskie otnoshenija na novom starte // Vestnik
Rossijskogo universiteta druzhby narodov. Serija Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija. 2016. 2.
SS. 203-214)
.., .., .. -
. //
, 3, 2017, . 6-26 (Kostikova A.A., Spartak A.N., Francuzov V.V. Vzaimodejstvie
gosudarstva i biznesa v prodvizhenii nacionalnyh interesov na mezhdunarodnoj arene. //
Mezhdunarodnaja jekonomika, 3, 2017, ss. 6-26)

5 - 2017 17

: , , / . . .. . .: -
, 2017. 234 . (Mezhdunarodnaja torgovlja: vchera, segodnja, zavtra / Otv.
red. A.V. Shishkin. M.: Izdat-vo OOO Rusajns, 2017. 234 s.)
: ,
/ . .. . .: , 2016. 320
. (Mezhdunarodnaja torgovlja uslugami: novye tendencii razvitija i regulirovanija, rol v
integracionnyh processah / Pod red. A.N. Spartaka. M.: VAVT, 2016. 320 s.)
.. . // -
, 4, 2017, . 3-13 (Spartak A.N. Perestrojka v rossijskom jeksporte. // Rossijskij
vneshnejekonomicheskij vestnik, 4, 2017, ss. 3-13)
.. . //
, 9, 2016, . 7-20 (Spartak A.N. Modernizacija jeksportnoj specializacii Rossii. //
Mezhdunarodnaja jekonomika, 9, 2016, ss. 7-20)
.. . //
, 11, 2016, . 31-41 (Spartak A.N. Torgovaja politika v interesah jekonomicheskogo
rosta. // Mezhdunarodnaja jekonomika, 11, 2016, ss. 31-41)
.., .., .. : -
, . .: , 2015. 384 .
(Spartak A.N., Francuzov V.V., Hohlov A.V. Mirovoj i rossijskij jeksport: tendencii i perspektivy
razvitija, sistemy podderzhki. M.: FGBOU VO VAVT, 2015. 384 s.)
2019 . .: 2017. [-
] : http://government.ru/media/les/vZhuwXPdWkqiRUNkwZR
QaV80Y7jrqJe5.pdf (Strategija AO Rossijskij jeksportnyj centr do 2019 goda. M.: 2017.
[Jelektronnyj resurs] Rezhim dostupa)
The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? PwC projections for
2030 and 2050. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, 2015. 46 . [ ]
: http://www.pwc.com/vn/en/publications/2014/world_in_2050.pdf

18 5 - 2017

Оценить