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The political system existing in Europe since 1814 and 1815 is a phenomenon
without precedent in the world's history. In place of the principle of equilibrium, or more
accurately of counterweights formed by separate alliances, the principle that has governed
and too often has also troubled and bloodied Europe for three centuries, there has
succeeded a principle of general union, uniting all the states collectively with a federative
bond, under the guidance of the five principal Powers, four of which have equal shares in
that guidance, while the fifth at this time is still subject to a kind of tutelage, from which
it will soon emerge to place itself upon a par with its custodians. The states of the second,
third, and fourth rank submit tacitly, though nothing has ever been stipulated in this
regard, to the decisions made in common by the preponderant Powers; and so Europe
seems really to form a grand political family, united under the auspices of a high tribunal
of its own creation, whose members guarantee to themselves and to all parties concerned
the peaceful enjoyment of their respective rights.
This scheme of things has its inconveniences. But it is certain that, could it be
made durable, it would be after all the best possible combination to assure the prosperity
of peoples, and the maintenance of the peace, which is one of its first prerequisites. The
strongest objection to the present system is the obvious difficulty of preserving over a
long period of time the harmony among the heterogeneous elements that compose it. The
most divergent interests, the most conflicting tendencies, and the most contradictory
aspirations, views, and secret thoughts are pulled together and for the moment submerged
in the common action of a league, which more resembles a coalition created for a
particular purpose, than it does a true alliance based on clear and permanent interests. It
required unique circumstances to bring such a league into being; it would be contrary to
the nature of things and of men for it to replace for long that condition of opposition and
conflict which the diversity of positions, interests, and opinions will always impose upon
a group of independent Powers, each of which necessarily has its own characteristics and
its own system. This perspective is far from unimportant. For one cannot avoid the fact
that the collapse of a system now in effect, no matter what new system follows it, will
immediately give rise to a state of uncertainty, anxiety, and danger, and will open the way
to a new general conflagration with unpredictable results and duration.
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I am persuaded that the European federation-for that is the most accurate term for
the present system-is not threatened with immediate ruin. I should not answer for a half -
century; but I should not hesitate to answer for ten or even twenty years, a long enough
interval I think for everyone to think out the future, and to prepare in time the position
that another order of things will require. My opinion is based not on the structure of -the
system, the extreme fragility of which I myself recognize, but on the situations of the
principal Powers that compose it, situations such that no one of these Powers can safely,
without risking imminent ruin, leave the circleof its present connections.
The five Powers at the head of the federation are the only ones who could destroy
the general system by changing their policies. Squabbles and changes among the others
could never have that effect.
Spain and Portugal in one corner, and Sweden and Denmark in the other, are much
too weak and much too far from the center of Europe for their actions to affect the
decisions of the great Powers.
The Kingdom of the Netherlands is inevitably bound by the conduct and the
relations among its great neighbors; being suspended among France, Britain, and
Germany, it can have no desire but peace, and no principle but to be on good terms with
everybody.
The states of Germany, now that there no longer are and no longer can be liaisons
between themselves and France, are no more than satellites of the two preponderant
bodies; and as long as Austria and Prussia work together, the other German courts can
only follow their direction.
The states of Italy are squeezed between Austria and France, and deprived of any
will of their own.
The Ottoman Porte would undoubtedly have the power to make war against
Russia, unimpeded by vague ties with the European federation. But if the Porte should
decide some day to attack Russia without provocation from that Power, the result
probably would be only a separate war that would not disturb the general system at all.
The case would be very different if Russia were the aggressor; in that case, to which I
shall return later, the present European system would move inevitably toward catastrophe.
Of the five Powers, which, according to this preliminary description, are the only
ones in position to cause decisive change, there are three-Austria, Prussia, and Britain-
who would regard such change as total disaster, and would do anything to prevent it. The
other two, France and Russia, could have, even in less than ten or twenty years, more or
less attractive reasons for leaving their present positions; but they are held there by more
important considerations, or by insurmountable hindrances. This I shall undertake to
prove.
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These reflections lead to a conclusion as remarkable as it is reassuring. What at
first glance seems the weakest part of the present system is precisely what gives it force.
France and Russia are today the only two Powers who could threaten Europe with a new
upheaval, and they are rendered incapable of harm as long as the middle line, formed by
Powers whose only interest and whose only desire is peace, is not broken. Austria,
Prussia, and England, each little disposed today and little prepared for a serious war,
comparatively and individually impotent, peaceful by necessity, but still strong enough
for joint resistance, are the true rampart of the common security of Europe; and the colossi
that occupy the two extremities, breaking against this central dike for as long as it lasts,
must for a long time to come seek their advantage and their glory in preserving an order
of things that they cannot hope to destroy. Add to these considerations the general
situation of the peoples, their horror of war, the attention that must be paid to them, the
penury of all the governments, the evident inclinations of the cabinets at London, Vienna,
and Berlin, and what the soundest data and the most reasonable calculations tell us of the
reigning principles in France and in Russia-I think that very great probabilities join in
pointing to the maintenance of the general peace, and of the political system, which, with
all its imperfections and all its faults, is today its foundation and its guarantee.