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However, in 2060s, projected paddy rice yield in Japan reduced by almost 85%
of the current level because of negative impact of rising temperature during
ripening season of paddy rice. Quality is also reduced down by 40%.
On the other hand, CO2 enrichment make it possible to push up the yield level by
around 15% - 20% in 2060s.
In actual phase, temperature rise and CO2 increase influence multiply on growth
of a plant. Then, unexpected reduction of yield will appear. This process is not
yet treated in model simulations.
If shortened solar radiation and higher temperature are coupled in the future
climates, another negative influence will affect on quality of paddy rice.
Wheat: mid- to high-latitude
℃) (℃)
25 (1) Temp. at TPD
Air Temperature at becomes high in the
Day
20
移植時気温(
Transpranting southern part of Japan
15
北九州・
平坦北部
広域沿海
薩摩半島
下越北
神奈川
東南部
八重山
石狩
上川
下北
中部
最上
加賀
南信
北部
西部
伊賀
県北
東部
北部
東予
県南
southern area.
North ← → South
2400
Under global warming …
Accumulated Temperature
2200
2000
These properties
℃)
day)
積算温度(
広域沿海
薩摩半島
下越北
神奈川
東南部
八重山
石狩
上川
下北
中部
最上
加賀
南信
北部
西部
伊賀
県北
東部
北部
東予
県南
conditions.
作柄表示地帯
Cultivation area (Hayashi & Ishigooka, 2002)
1.6
Yield per unit solar radiation (Y /R s:g/M J)
N W side of H okkaido D . Y /R s = 1.28-0.0192(21.9-T )2
1.4 SE side of H okkaido D .
E side of T ohoku D .
E side of T ohoku D .
1.2 H okuriku D .
Koshinetsu D .
1.0 Kanto D .
Tokai & KinkiD .
C hygoku D .
0.8 Shikoku D .
Kyushu D .
0.6
0.4
0.2
21.9℃
0.0
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
A verage tem perature over 40 days after heading (T :℃)
Current 2030s
200
July
180
June
2060s 2090s 160
140
May
120
April
(DOY)
Distribution of best suited transplanting day for higher level of the yield
under current and future climate conditions (Hayashi et al., 2002)
Current 2030
800
750
650
600
(kg/10a)
Shizukuishi
ap
fJ
ao
Se
ean
Oc
Tsukuba
ific
Pac
Tokyo
FACE field
experiment
By K.Kobayashi
The multiple effect by temp. and CO2 rise leads
unexpected lower yield than by their single effects