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FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are
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FOI
Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 55 50 30 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2475--SE User report Defence Analysis
Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 55 50 31 00 ISSN 1650-1942 May 2008
SE 164 90 Stockholm
Karin Bogland, Robert Egnell, Maria Lagerstrm
Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2475--SE
Rapporttyp Anvndarrapport
Report Type User report
Mnad/Month Maj/May
Utgivningsr/Year 2008
Antal sidor/Pages 52 p
ISSN ISSN 1650-1942
Kund/Customer Frsvarsdepartementet
Forskningsomrde 1. Analys av skerhet och srbarhet
Programme area 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analysis
Projektnr/Project no A 12014
Godknd av/Approved by Sara Gullbrandsson
Sammanfattning
Den Afrikanska Unionen r av stor vikt fr afrikansk konflikthanteringsfrmga.
Rapporten syftar drfr till att hja kunskapsnivn om Afrikanska Unionen (AU)
som organisation, med inriktning p konflikthantering. Ett ytterligare syfte r att
skapa ett fundament fr fortsatt forskning genom att identifiera ett antal relevanta
forsknings- och policyfrgor fr vidare studier under 2008. Studien innehller
drfr en versiktlig genomgng av AU:s historik, organisation och dess
koppling till andra strre regionala aktrer. Drefter grs en fokusering p AU:s
konflikthanteringsorgan, vilket bland annat innebr en nrmare titt p AU:s
freds- och skerhetsrd (Peace and Security Council PSC), Direktoratet fr
Fred och Skerhet (Peace and Security Directorate), samt p African Standby
Force (ASF). Slutligen problematiseras ett antal mnen som uppkommit under
studiens gng och som bedmts s relevanta att de br ing redan i detta
inledande skede av forskningen.
Nyckelord: Afrikanska Unionen, AU, organisationsanalys, konflikthantering,
Afrika, fredsfrmjande operationer, ASF, Regionala organisationer
3
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Summary
The African Union is an organization of great importance for African conflict
management. The purpose of this study is therefore to increase our understanding
of the AU and its organizational structure with emphasis on conflict
management. Another aim is to create a foundation for future research by
identifying a number of relevant research and policy questions that can be
pursued in 2008. This study therefore contains a basic analysis of AU history,
organization and relations to other regional actors and organizations. That section
is followed by a study of the organizations organs for conflict management. This
means a closer look at the Peace and Security Council, the Peace and Security
Directorate and the African Standby Force. Finally, the study critically discusses
a number of features of the AU in order to assess its development in the near
future.
Keywords: African Union, AU, conflict management, African Standby Force,
organization, regional economic communities, peace support operations
4
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Contents
Preface ........................................................................................................... 6
Abstract ........................................................................................................... 7
1 Introduction.......................................................................................... 9
1.1 Aim and Method .............................................................................. 10
1.2 Scope of the Study .......................................................................... 11
5. Conclusions ............................................................................................. 44
5.1 Future Research ...................................................................................... 45
6. Bibliography............................................................................................. 47
7. Acronyms ................................................................................................. 51
5
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Preface
The African Union (AU) is a young organisation, which has, nevertheless, come to
play a major role in, among other things, peace and security initiatives on the
continent of Africa. In the run-up to the sending of Swedish troops to the conflicts in
Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) within the framework of a
multinational effort under the leadership of the European Union (EU) and also future
Swedish initiatives, a growing need for knowledge about the AUs organisation and
its forms of cooperation has become increasingly more evident within the Swedish
authorities.
The Defence Analysis Division of the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) has
been commissioned, within the framework of the International Efforts project, by the
Swedish Ministry of Defences Department for International and Security Affairs
(F/SI) to carry out an organisational study of the AU, with particular focus on its
conflict management bodies. The study is to be regarded as a pilot study for a larger
piece of work on the AU that will be carried out within the framework of the new
Focus on Africa project, which began at the FOIs Defence Analysis Division in
January 2008, and which is also financed by the F/SI.
The report was quality checked at a seminar on 1 February 2008. The reviewers were
Bengt-Gran Bergstrand, who dealt with factual questions, and Ann dlund, who
took a closer look at questions concerning methods and structure. We are most
grateful to them and the other participants at the seminar for valuable comments.
We would also like to thank Henri Boshoff of the Institute of Security Studies (ISS)
in Pretoria, South Africa, for his talk and his generous and accommodating approach
to sharing information about the AU, and the Permanent Mission of Sweden to the
United Nations (UN) for putting together an interesting and rewarding programme at
the UNs Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO).
Many thanks to Karl Srenson and Peter Haldn, analysts at the FOIs Defence
Analysis Division, and Colonel Anders Edqvist, former Defence Attach in South
Africa and the current military expert at the Swedish Ministry of Defences
Department for Military Affairs (F/MIL), for reading through the draft report prior
to the review of the report. The authors of the report are, of course, personally
responsible for the end result.
Stockholm, January 2008,
Karin Bogland
Project Manager, International Operations
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Abstract
The report aims to increase the level of knowledge of the African Union (AU) as
an organisation, with the focus on conflict management. An additional aim is to
create a foundation for further research by identifying a number of relevant
research and policy issues for further study in 2008. The study therefore contains
a general review of the history and organisation of the AU and its link to other
large regional actors. We will then focus on the AUs conflict management
bodies, which, among other things, involves a closer look at the AUs Peace and
Security Council (PSC), Peace and Security Directorate (PSD) and African
Standby Force (ASF). Finally, we will problematize a number of subjects that
have emerged during the course of our study and which have been considered so
relevant that they should already be included in this introductory phase of the
research.
The AU is an organisation that has great ambitions with regard to promoting
peace and security, but which also suffers from a serious lack of resources in its
efforts to achieve these ambitions. Extremely limited finances and a small
number of staff at its headquarters mean that the organisation has great difficulty
meeting the great expectations placed on it. The AU is, therefore, best described
as a skeleton structure that must be given time to have the opportunity to develop
the capacity required to bridge the gap between ambition and actual ability. The
development of the ASF, based on five multinational, regional brigades, is an
absolutely key factor in this capacity building. At present, the ASF is something
of a paper tiger and the goal of having five operational brigades by 2010 cannot
be considered a realistic one. It is very important to follow developments within
the triangular area of tension between the AUs ambitions, its capacity and its
Member States willingness to finance and contribute troops. The future
development of the AU will be decided within this area of tension.
A further number of areas have been identified as of importance with regard to
the development of the AU. The condemnation of non-constitutional changes of
government and the introduction of interventions under serious circumstances
seriously weaken the principle of national sovereignty and are described as the
most important difference between the AU and its predecessor, the OAU. The
area of tension between the principles of sovereignty and intervention within the
AU is important, as the organisations willingness and capacity to intervene in
the event of genocide and serious human rights abuses will be what will
ultimately determine its legitimacy.
Another interesting aspect is the regional construction of the AUs security
apparatus, the ASF, around five existing regional economic organisations. The
7
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8
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1 Introduction
Africa and its different regions are of increasing interest and relevance with
regard to security policy. Security problems relating to disintegrating states,
international conflicts, civil war, economic and political development,
radicalisation, streams of refugees and resource and climate issues have made the
continent of great immediate interest within international security policy.
Africas problems, in the form of famine and a lack of political and economic
development, are more relevant than ever, something that is also illustrated in the
UNs Millennium Development Goals and other efforts.1 Among the external
actors involved, both the EU and the UN are carrying out and planning peace-
support missions on the continent. China is investing major resources in trade
and aid. The US is matching this with similar activity and also a newly
established military Africa Command (AFRICOM). France and Great Britain
have traditionally been very active in different parts of the continent. All this
points to increased interest in the continent with regard to security policy.
Security developments in Africa mean that even Swedish interests in the
continent are increasing through the international organisations we are active in.
In addition to traditional development work on the continent, which, in the latest
government bill on development from the spring of 2007, was further aimed at
Africa in particular, Swedish troops have contributed to international peace
operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Liberia. At the time
of writing, a mission is planned in Chad and the Nordic Battlegroup (NBG) is
waiting for the starting signal for a possible EU-led mission in the first six
months of 2008.
According to Government statements, Swedish policy on Africa consists of
increased commitment in Africa, the development of the EUs instruments for
conflict management and increased UN focus on the continent. A cornerstone of
this policy is support for conflict management, which is manifested through
support for African capacity building.2 In order to effectively support African
capacity building, knowledge is required of African organisations and processes
within the area of conflict management. This study should be regarded as a
contribution towards such an increase in understanding.
1
The UNs Millennium Development Goals were created at the Millennium Summit of September
2000 and constitute a declaration of global cooperation concerning a number of time-bound
objectives in order to reduce poverty by 2015.
2
Conflict Management, <http://www.regeringen.se/sb/d/2574/a/13945>.
9
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Since the AU was formally created in 2002, it has quickly become a very
important actor in the area of African security. Through its extensive peace-
support efforts from mediation to full-scale military operations, observing
elections and economic sanctions, the organisation is already firmly rooted in the
continent. An expression coined at the time of the creation of the AU is that it
should contribute African solutions to African problems, which also indicates a
willingness among African leaders to look after their own affairs. The AU has
also created an important link between regional economic organisations, such as
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the international level, with
the EU and the UN at the forefront. An understanding of the AUs organisation,
capacity, opportunities and limitations is, therefore, of the utmost importance in
order to be able to pursue effective policies with the aim of developing the
capacity of African organisations and processes.
10
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11
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3
Julius O. Ihonvbere, Pan-Africanism: Agenda for African Unity in the 1990s, Keynote address at
The All-African Students Conference, Peter Clark Hall, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario,
Canada, 27 May 1994, <http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/30/033.html>.
4
Kwesi Kwaa Prah, African Unity, Pan-Africanism and the Dilemmas of Regional Integration, in
Ibbo Mandaza and Dani Nabudere (eds.), Pan-Africanism and Integration in Africa (SAPES
Books, 2002), <http://www.casas.co.za/papers_AfricanUnity.htm>.
5
Ibid.
6
<http://www.oau-creation.com/>.
12
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7
S. M. Makunda and F. W. Okumu, The African Union: Challenges of Globalization, Security and
Governance (Routledge, 2007).
8
Christopher Landsberg, The Fifth Wave of Pan-Africanism, in Adekeye Adebajo and Ismail
Rashid (eds.), West Africas Security Challenges Building Peace in a Troubled Region (Boulder:
Lynne Rienner, 2004), p. 117.
9
Thabo Mbeki cited in Benedikt F. Franke, Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents
Emerging Security Architecture, African Studies Quarterly, 9:3, Spring 2007,
<http://www.africa.ufl.edu/asq/v9/v9i3a2 .htm>.
13
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10
Landsberg, The Fifth Wave of Pan-Africanism, p. 117.
11
AU in a nutshell, <www.africa-union.org>.
12
Constitutive Act of the African Union, <http://www.africa-union.org/root/au/ AboutAu/
Constitutive_Act_en. htm>.
13
Morocco left the OAU in 1984 when the organisation welcomed the Moroccan-occupied Western
Sahara as a member. The same applies to the AU, which means Morocco refuses to become a
member.
14
Constitutive Act of the African Union, Article 4, Principles.
15
African Union, Strategic Plan of the African union Commission, Vol. 1: Vission and Mission of
the African Union, May 2004, p. 26.
14
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accelerate Africas development, promote unity, solidarity and peace between the
African countries, work for democracy and respect for human rights on the
African continent and work towards political and economic integration between
the continents different regions.16 In order to achieve this, a number of decision-
making, decision-supporting and executive bodies have been created within the
framework of the African Union. Several of these will be discussed in the
coming section, which has the aim of increasing understanding of the AU as an
organisation with the focus on conflict management.
16
Makunda and Okumu, The African Union.
15
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16
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17
Constitutive Act of the African Union, Article 7.
18
P. Daleke, Afrikanska Unionen [The African Union] (The Swedish Institute of International
Affairs, 2005).
19
Constitutive Act of the African Union.
17
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The Commission
The Commission is the AUs secretariat and consists of a chairperson (Jean
Peng, deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Gabon, who, in February
2008, was elected to replace President Alpha Oumar Konar), a vice-chairperson
and eight commissioners. The chairperson holds their post for four years and,
when electing a chairperson, vice-chairperson and the commissioners, it is
attempted to provide for a geographical spread (from Eastern, Western, Central,
Northern and Southern Africa). The Commission is both a preparatory and an
executive body where the eight commissioners are each responsible for their own
individual area: peace and security, political affairs, infrastructure and energy,
social affairs, human resources, science and technology, trade and industry,
farming and agricultural economics and economic affairs.21
There are also seven specialised committees that are subordinate to the
Commission22 and which support the Commissions work with departmental
ministers and senior officials from the member countries. The Commission
reports on its activity to the Executive Council. The Peace and Security
Directorate, one of the eight Directorates of the Commission, each of which has
its own commissioner, will be discussed in greater detail in Chapter 3.
20
Ibid.
21
Ibid.
22
International Cooperation Directorate; Women and Gender & Development Directorate; Office of
the General Counsel, Strategic; Policy Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation; Office of the Internal
Audit, Protocol Services; Communication & Public Information Division.
18
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23
Constitutive Act of the African Union, Article 17.
19
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24
Carole Njoki, The African Standby Force (ASF) The African Solution for African Problems,
Institute for Security Studies (ISS), 24 January 2007.
25
African Union Constitutive Act, Article 4 (h).
26
The UN Security Council confirmed R2P in a resolution presented on 28 August 2006 regarding
the protection of civilians in armed conflicts. The Security Council invoked R2P for the first time
in the country-specific resolution on 31 August 2006 concerning Darfur, Sudan, and R2P
continues to be cited in country-specific and thematic debates. While many of the Council
20
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stronger than the political will, as, for example, the complaisance in Darfur has
demonstrated.27 This, combined with the fact that the UN has difficulty getting
troop contributions from the West for peacekeeping missions in Africa other
than military observers and staff personnel, has meant that the AU has come to
be regarded by many people as the ultimate guarantee for the safety of the
African people. In order to understand the AUs role and capacity within African
peace and security, this chapter will take a closer look at the AUs crisis
management bodies.
In order to underpin the broad mandate within peacebuilding efforts and conflict
management, the African leaders have developed a number of elements through
the AU within the scope of an overall framework that has come to be called the
African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). The central institution within
the AUs peace and security work is the Peace and Security Council (PSC),
which acts as the main decision-making body for peace and security issues in
Africa. The PSC is assisted by policy-supporting functions (Panel of the Wise,
Military Staff Committee, Continental Early Warning System and the
Chairperson of the Commission) as well as by the Peace and Security Directorate
within the Commission, and finally by an operational/tactical element, the ASF,
which includes military troops, police and civilian personnel. We will attempt to
analyse the relationships between these units below and provide a general
description of their tasks and aims.
members are in favour of R2P, there are many people who are opposed to the application of the
concept within the Councils work. The result has been that the Security Council has not yet
resolved whether and how R2P will direct its future work
(<http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/>).
27
See Seth Appiah-Mensah, AUs Critical Assignment in Darfur: Challenges and Constraints,
African Security Review, 14:2, (2005).
21
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creating the conditions for permanent development.28 This gives the council,
among other things, a mandate to decide to set up peace-enforcement and
peacekeeping functions in order to predict and prevent conflicts. When conflicts
nevertheless arise, the PSC is responsible for authorising the setting up and
dispatching of peacekeeping missions. The PSC is also to provide
recommendations to the Assembly regarding intervention in a member country in
the event of serious circumstances, such as war crimes, genocide and crimes
against humanity.29 The PSC also has powers to impose sanctions on member
states where unconstitutional changes of government have occurred,30 as well as
to monitor the development towards democracy, good governance, law and
order, the protection of human rights.31 The PSC thereby has a mandate to make
decisions itself on a number of questions regarding peace and security. However,
in the event of more serious crises such as genocide or missive human right
violations, or when action is required in a non-consenting member state, it is the
Assembly that jointly makes the decisions. Finally, it is the PSC that is to
promote and coordinate the continents struggle against terrorism as well as
promote and implement peacebuilding activities and reconstruction efforts. In its
work, the PSC is to promote close cooperation with the RECs and the UN
Secretariat and its different bodies.
The AU Assembly elects the 15 member states that are to sit as representatives
on the PSC. Five countries, one per region (Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern
and Western Africa), are elected for a three-year period (currently consisting of
Algeria, Ethiopia, Gabon, Nigeria and South Africa) while the remaining ten are
elected for a period of two years (currently consisting of the Democratic
Republic of Congo, Ghana, Cameroon, Kenya, Lesotho, Libya, Mozambique,
Senegal, Sudan and Togo).32 The chairmanship goes in alphabetical order and is
held for a calendar month at a time. Unlike the UN Security Council, none of the
member states has a permanent seat or the ability to use a veto to block a
decision, which, in practice, creates greater flexibility for the organisation to
make decisions. Decisions are made by consensus, or, if this does not work, with
a two-thirds majority.33 Since its inauguration in May 2004, the PSC has met on
a weekly basis to discuss conflicts on the continent and potential solutions to
these.
28
Protocol relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union
(PSC Protocol), Article 3 (a, e).
29
PSC Protocol, Article 4 (j).
30
Ibid., Article 7 (1g).
31
Ibid., Article 3 (f).
32
In accordance with PSC Protocol, Article 5 (1-2).
33
Ibid., Article 8 Procedure, Voting (13).
22
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34
Ibid., Article 11 (1, 3).
35
8th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union, 29-30 January 2007, Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia, p. 152.
36
PSC Protocol, Article 11.
37
Peace and Security Directorate, < http://www.africa-
union.org/Structure_of_the_Commission/depPEACE%20AND%20SECURITY%20DIRECTORA
TE.htm>.
23
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38
Ibid.
39
Peace and Security Directorate, < http://www.africa-union.org/Structure_of_the_Commission/
depPEACE %20AND%20SECURITY%20DIRECTORATE.htm>.
24
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Practices and have liaison officers and advisory personnel assigned to the UNs
DPKO in New York and the UN regional office in Addis Ababa.40
At a briefing in the Development Co-ordination Review Forum on 2 December
2007 the matter of why the PSOD was not yet sufficiently staffed, given that
there is the necessary funding through the European Commission/UNs capacity
building programme, was raised. Mr Bereng Mtimkulu, the Head of the PSOD,
explained that the new PSOD structure will consist of 100 staff, but stressed that
the PSOD needs to grow gradually, with support from, above all, the UN. At this
meeting, it was also stated that there was still no organisational chart to show
how the PSOD will be structured.41
This massive understaffing, combined with the many duties the PSOD currently
has, results, of course, in a tremendous strain on the staff. Regardless of their
qualities and knowledge, in the end, this leads to the AUs present efforts being
greatly neglected as regards strategic and operational management.
40
Talk, The Establishment of the African Standby Force A Progress Report, by Henri Boshoff,
the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), Pretoria, South Africa, at the Swedish Ministry of Defence,
December 2007.
41
Development Co-ordination Review Forum (DCRF), Meeting on Peace and Security, Meeting of
29 November, British Embassy, Addis Ababa, 2 December 2007.
42
Policy Framework for the Establishment of the African Standby Force and the Military Staff
Committee (PART I), Exp/ASF-MSC/2 (I), Document adopted by the Third Meeting of African
Chiefs of Defense Staff, 15-16 May 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
25
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43
PSC Protocol, Article 12.
44
The Special Peace Fund lies outside the ordinary budget of the AU and is primarily financed by
external actors.
45
In Section 3.4, the regional organisations responsible for establishing these brigades are described.
46
Njoki, The African Standby Force (ASF).
26
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The AUs objective during phase 1 was also to be able to have a pool of forces of
300500 military observers and 240 police officers stationed in the member
states with the ability to be deployed within 14 days. Furthermore, they would
like to establish stand-by police units which would consist of two company-size
units (about 225 police officers) who could be deployed in complex
peacekeeping missions within 90 days.47
During phase 2 (1 July 2005 to 30 June 2010), the AU is to have developed a
capacity to carry out all five scenarios right up to complex peacekeeping
missions in accordance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter. During the same
period, the RECs are to have developed a capacity to establish a mission
headquarters for scenario 4 and continue to develop the brigades and support
elements for these.48 The targets established will make great demands on
47
Policy Framework for the Establishment of the African Standby Force and the Military Staff
Committee (PART I), Exp/ASF-MSC/2 (I), Document adopted by the Third Meeting of African
Chiefs of Defense Staff, 15-16 May 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
48
Ibid.
27
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49
African Union Press Release No. 17/2008, Signing of an MoU on the Relationship between the
African Union, CENSAD, ECOWAS and IGAD.
50
For example, the OAU Liaison Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (OLMEE) and the United Nations
Advance Mission in Sudan (UNAMIS). Talk, The Establishment of the African Standby Force
A Progress Report, by Henri Boshoff, the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), Pretoria, South
Africa, at the Swedish Ministry of Defence, December 2007.
51
EU Support for Peace and Security in Africa, Fact Sheet,
<http://www.eurunion.org/News/press/2005/Africa %20final.pdf>.
28
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52
Policy Framework for the Establishment of the African Standby Force and the Military Staff
Committee (PART I).
53
Development Co-ordination Review Forum (DCRF), Meeting on Peace and Security, Meeting of
29 November, British Embassy, Addis Ababa, 2 December 2007.
54
Franke, Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents Emerging Security Architecture.
55
Strategic Plan of the African Union Commission, 2004.
29
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act as the AUs mainstays within conflict management work. Among other
things, they will within the framework for this each contribute a brigade to the
ASF, which is the reason there is a general presentation of them below. The other
two RECs that officially work together with the AU are the Common Market for
East & Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Community of Sahelo-Saharan
States (CEN-SAD). However, these focus primarily on economic development
work. The map below shows the memberships of the African states in the five
RECs contributing to the African Standby Force. It should be noted that the grey
areas are states without membership in any of the five organisations and that
Angola and the DR Congo have double memberships.
30
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Initially, its goal was to create a strong trade federation by means of an economic
and monetary union, but this was transformed into a looser federation. The
members of ECOWAS have signed a protocol on mutual assistance in the event
of an attack, which takes care of the establishment of an allied force.56 The
organisation has previous experience of carrying out peacekeeping missions in
Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cte dIvoire and Guinea-Bissau. The ECOWAS brigade
for the ASF goes under the name of the ECOWAS Brigade (ECOBRIG).
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) consists of fifteen
member states: Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho,
Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, the Seychelles,
Swaziland, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The organisation
works together within socio-economics and integration, politically as well as
within peace and security. The foundations were laid as early as the 1960s and
1970s when the countries leaders worked together at the political, diplomatic
and military level to fight colonialism. SADC was created in its present form in
1992. The political work and security cooperation are institutionalised in the
Organ of Politics, Defence and Security (ODPS). SADCs brigade for the ASF
goes under the name of the SADC Brigade (SADCBRIG).
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has six member
states: Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda and was founded
in its present form in 1995. The aim was, with UN assistance, to create an
international body that would work on regional security and conduct the political
dialogue. Since 2005, IGAD has been an active player and contributed resources
to the conflict in Somalia. Eritrea, which was previously a member of IGAD,
withdrew its membership in April 2007, partly as a result of the Ethiopian
peacekeeping forces in Somalia. The IGAD brigade contributes what is called the
Eastern Africa Standby Brigade (EASBRIG) to the ASF.
The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS),57 formed in
1983, is the economically weakest of the five African regional organisations that
are responsible for the ASFs brigades. Its members, Angola (not a member until
1999), Burundi, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of
Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Cameroon, Congo, Rwanda, So Tom and
Prncip and Chad, are among the very poorest countries in Africa and in the
world.58 The organisation is in great need of external financing and it is likely
56
K. Powell, The African Unions Emerging Peace and Security Regime: Opportunities and
Challenges for Delivering on the Responsibility to Protect, ISS Monograph Series, No. 119
(2005).
57
In French, Communaut conomique des tats de lAfrique Centrale (CEEAC).
58
<http://www.ceeac-eccas.org/index.php?rubrique=presentation&id=3>.
31
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that it will soon merge with the free trade organisation the Economic and
Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC, from the French
Communaut conomique et Montaire de lAfrique Centrale),59 something the
EU has worked towards since 2003 with a view to strengthening the region. Its
work on the standby brigade, the Multinational Force of Central Africa
(FOMAC, from the French, Force multinationale de lAfrique centrale), is still
only at the planning stage although a number of units have been announced.
The Arab Maghreb Union (AMU)60 was not founded until 1989 in Marrakesh,
Morocco. Its members are Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania and Tunisia.61
With the exception of Mauritania, these are among the economically strongest
states in Africa. Despite this, the organisations work has stumbled along,
primarily due to the political antagonism between Morocco and Algeria, but
neither Libya nor Tunisia has shown any great ambitions in the Unions work
either. It is interesting that Egypt is not part of the AMU and has, in this way,
positioned itself outside all the regional organisations in Africa. As the AMUs
member states are strong militarily and, as in the case of Morocco and Tunisia,
have much experience of UN missions, the union could relatively quickly set up
a brigade within the framework of the ASF. However, due to difficulties
cooperating politically, they have not come very far with the brigade they have
announced, the North African Standby Brigade (NASBRIG).
The African regional organisations suffer from an enormous lack of resources
and capacity, which has affected and will continue to affect work on achieving
useful, operational brigades within the framework of the ASF. The problems also
consist of a lack of capacity to centrally lead regional organisations, the states of
which are unevenly distributed in terms of political and economic development
and which have different political agendas.62
The AU has drawn attention to the risks of the uncontrolled spread of regional
organisations and regional initiatives. The AU has, therefore, as previously
mentioned, limited its cooperation to the seven most important RECs on the
continent. In addition, a summit meeting in Banjul in 2006 was devoted to the
question of the rationalisation of the RECs on the continent. The RECs the AU
works with are, on the other hand, striving to have very good relations and to
harmonise work in order to avoid unnecessary duplication and competition for
resources. Rationalisation, harmonisation and integration of the cooperation
59
The members of which are the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Cameroon,
the Republic of Congo and Chad.
60
In French, Union du Maghreb Arabe (UMA).
61
<http://www.maghrebarabe.org/en/uma.cfm>.
62
Powell, The African Unions Emerging Peace and Security Regime.
32
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63
See the Constitutive Act; the Protocol on the Establishment of the PSC and the Draft
Memorandum of Understanding between the AU and the RECs. See also Franke, Competing
Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents Emerging Security Architecture.
64
Funmi Olonisakin, African Peacekeeping at the Crossroads: An Assessment of the Continents
Evolving Peace and Security Architecture (New York: United Nations Best Practices, 2004), p. 8.
33
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65
Paul D. Williams, From Non-Intervention to Non-Indifference: The Origins and Development of
the African Unions Security Culture, African Affairs, 106/423, March 2007, pp. 253279, p. 278.
The R2P principle was developed in a report, The Responsibility to Protect from December
2001, by the Canadian International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS).
34
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66
Constitutive Act of the African Union, Article 4, Principles.
67
Landsberg, The Fifth Wave of Pan-Africanism, p. 117.
68
See, for example, the African Union Constitutive Act, Article 4, Principles (m).
69
Tim Murithi, The Responsibility to Protect, as Enshrined in Article 4 of the Constitutive Act of
the African Union, African Security Review, 16:3, 2007, p. 16.
70
Williams, From Non-Intervention to Non-Indifference, p. 278.
71
Thomas Kwasi Tieku, African Union Promotion of Human Security in Africa, African Security
Review, 16:2, 2007, p. 27.
35
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their opponents is enticing. This is made clear when comparing the original draft
of the AUs joint defence and security policy, produced in the early years of the
AU, and the recently produced Non-Aggression and Defence Pact, in which
human security is not expressed as an important factor.72
The strong wording of the AUs Constitutive Act and the subsequent
establishment of the ASF and other structures for international missions offset,
however, the most negative descriptions of the development of norms and culture
within the AU. It is, therefore, too early to draw any conclusions regarding the
AUs future support for R2P and human security. A hard balancing act for
external actors working for democratisation and liberalisation is to support the
AU as conflict managers without this giving the appearance of implementing
Western values something that could ultimately weaken the African Union and
its even more fragile R2P culture.
72
Ibid., pp. 3334.
73
Benedikt F. Franke, Enabling a Continent to Help Itself: U.S. Military Capacity Building and
Africas Emerging Security Architecture, Strategic Insights, 6:1, January 2007.
74
Franke, Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents Emerging Security Architecture.
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The decentralised system has, however, been criticised for creating unnecessary
bureaucracy and organisational complexity on the continent and, consequently,
causing lengthy processes when conflicts and crises are to be dealt with. The five
RECs, which are the mainstays of the ASF, are also faced with several individual
challenges in their work on achieving peace and security. These shortcomings
may have consequences for the development of continental capacity in the areas
of peace and security and will require good monitoring within the capacity
development at both continental and regional levels.75
Several authors (Powell, Franke, Juma and Mengistu) believe, however, that the
regional system has significant advantages. By incorporating existing regional
systems, the AU is allowed to profit from the RECs comparative advantages, i.e.
their experience of previous peace operations and already established
frameworks and mechanisms for the prevention and management of conflicts.76
The proximity of the regional organisations to trouble spots may also lead to a
better understanding of the specific dynamics of the conflict which actors and
interests are of importance and how to best arrive at a solution. The proximity
principle may also, in theory at least, lead to the regional organisations managing
these crises more effectively than larger organisations, such as the UN.77 The
idea is that the regional organisations and leaders have greater political
legitimacy in the conflict area than international organisations. It would thereby
be easier for them to achieve peace and security in conflicts than for distant
powers.78 It should, however, be added that while proximity to conflicts may lead
to comparatively legitimate, quick and less costly missions by the RECs, they
could, however, also jeopardise the neutrality and impartiality of the actions.
Being close to a conflict may cause considerable tension between the parties
involved: in the worst case scenario, so much tension that the regional
organisation that is to remain impartial becomes part of the conflict.79 It is,
therefore, relevant to raise the matter of how the regional organisations should
act if a great power of a region is a party in a conflict and whether the regional
brigade will then be sufficiently impartial and strong to act neutrally, or if more
geographically distant brigades from the ASF should be used.80
75
Powell, The African Unions Emerging Peace and Security Regime.
76
Franke, Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents Emerging Security Architecture.
77
Powell, The African Unions Emerging Peace and Security Regime.
78
M. Juma and A. Mengistu, The Infrastructure of Peace in Africa: Assessing the Peace Building
Capacity of African Institutions (International Peace Academy, 2002).
79
Powell, The African Unions Emerging Peace and Security Regime.
80
International Peace Academy, Refashioning the Dialogue: Regional Perspectives on the Brahimi
Report on UN Operations (2001).
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The regional structure of the AUs peace and security architecture means that the
organisation is continuing to build on established structures for peace and
security and focusing them on joint efforts towards continent-wide conflict
management.81 The creation of the ASF in regional form therefore contributes
towards continent-wide security policy cooperation in a further two ways. Firstly,
the ASF constitutes a common goal for the member states, a political framework
for peace and security, which increases the opportunity for channelling the great
variety of resources, initiatives and programmes in a common direction.82
Secondly, the ASFs decentralised structure helps the regional organisations
retain both their interest and a sense of responsibility as they still personally play
a key role in both regional and continental security. A large part of the
responsibility for peace and security in Africa is thereby kept within the regional
organisations, while the AU contributes the strategic framework, the continental
legitimacy and the important conceptual and institutional link with the global
level (the UN, the EU, etc.). This mutual symbiosis between the AU and the
regional organisations increases the different actors sense of responsibility for
the capacity development at the same time as reducing the risk of competition
between different levels of African security organisations and initiatives
something that often restricted the OAUs initiatives regarding peace operations
and joint forces.83 The regional, decentralised peace and security structure within
the AU may, therefore, be described as a natural and practical solution to the
problem of creating integration and cooperation over such a large and
heterogeneous area as Africa. In order to effectively develop African conflict
management capacity, the local, regional and continental levels will be required.
It should, however, be emphasised that capacity that is equivalent to the levels
tasks and undertakings must exist at all three levels if the structure is to work
well.84
81
Franke, Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents Emerging Security Architecture.
82
Cedric de Coning, Towards a Common Southern African Peacekeeping System, Electronic
Briefing Paper No. 16, Centre for International Political Studies, University of Pretoria, 2004, p. 4.
83
Franke, Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents Emerging Security Architecture.
84
This was raised by Colonel Anders Edqvist, former Swedish defence attach in South Africa,
during an interview at the Ministry of Defence on 26 November 2007.
38
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missions carried out and going on therefore have had little chance of succeeding.
These hastily put-together and, in many aspects, inadequate efforts are the result
of a great willingness to find African solutions to African problems, eagerly
supported by external actors reluctance to become too heavily involved in
complex and, to say the least, dangerous missions on the continent. This has led
to the AU taking on assignments with international support, despite all involved
actors being well aware of the many shortcomings.85 The other side of the same
coin is that, given the ambition of African solutions to African problems, the AU
has been reluctant to accept support when it patently needs it.
African leaders have put the creation of the ASF at the heart of the AUs peace
and security agenda. By way of this tool the PSC will be given the capacity to
intervene militarily in conflict and crisis areas when this is required.86 It is, of
course, impossible to emphasise enough how important the ASFs capacity will
be for the credibility of the PSC on the continent. Work has, however, proceeded
very slowly and it cannot be regarded as likely that these will be fully operational
by 2010 as planned. In the meantime, the many shortcomings in the AUs
operations in Somalia and Sudan are showing a major gap between ambition,
capacity and quality.
When we speak of a lack of resources and capacity within the AU, it may be
necessary to make this clear by using a few figures in order to illustrate the
extent of the problem. In 2007, the AUs total budget was USD 73 million. In
addition, there is what international donors contribute within the AUs Peace
Fund and what is provided in connection with specific operations. USD 73
million is, however, a very small sum in the context. For example, the EUs
budget is 2,500 times bigger at EUR 129 billion. The member states within the
AU are among the poorest on the planet and their limited national budgets are in
many cases largely financed by international donors. According to the
Commission for Africa, half of all Africans live on less than one dollar per day
and the life expectancy age is 46 years.87 As an example, it can be noted that the
total GDP of Africa, despite a population of 928 million, is only slightly more
than double that of Swedens GDP with a population of 9 million.88
An important argument that is often presented in connection with the AU and the
ASFs capacity development is that the biggest problem is not producing soldiers
85
Ibid.
86
See Article 13 (1), Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council, July
2002.
87
Commission for Africa, Our Common Interest: Report of the Commission for Africa, March
2005, http://www.commissionforafrica.org/english/report/introduction.html
88
Data collected and presented by BG Bergstrand, Swedish Defence Research Agency.
39
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but transporting them quickly over great distances and being able to support them
with sufficient logistics for a long time and under difficult circumstances.89
Deane-Peter Baker believes that the AUs lack of capacity was illustrated
through its inability to quickly and effectively intervene in Somalia in December
2006 after Ethiopia invaded Somalia and when it began its retreat from Somalia
after international pressure. Somalia witnessed the beginning of a revolt and the
AU decided to send 8,000 peacekeepers from the African Union Mission to
Somalia (AMISOM). However, the AU was only able to muster 4,000 soldiers
on paper, of which only 1,200 Ugandan soldiers were sent to Somalia in March
2007. In August 2007, only a couple of hundred Ugandans had arrived in
addition to the initial force and there were no other troop contributions in place
although 1,700 soldiers from Burundi were technically ready to be deployed but,
according to them, they still lacked transport and communications equipment
promised by the US and France.90 It should, however, be added that the rapidly
deteriorating security situation made other potential troop contributors hesitant
about the mission in Somalia and technical obstacles should, to some extent, be
seen as excuses to avoid having to go into a highly dangerous mission area a
reluctance the AUs member states share with both the EU and the UN.
The African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) has further underlined the gap
between the AUs ambitions and its capacity to intervene in crises. The
conclusions from a seminar arranged by the International Peace Academy once
again point to it not being enough just having soldiers available.91 Among other
things, it indicates a lack of planning on the part of AMIS prior to the operation
commencing. In principle, there were no ready structures for strategic and
operational command and control, and the result was an ad hoc organisation
which did not have the capacity to command the mission effectively. This should
be linked to the analysis of the PSOD in the previous chapter, which highlighted
the serious understaffing and lack of resources for planning and leading missions.
The logistics were also completely lacking at the beginning of the mission and
did not function until a private American company was hired with funding from
the US State Department. The lack of resources meant that units and observers in
the field often lacked sufficient means of communication and transport. Another
conclusion was that the operation was completely dependent on funding, tactical
89
Deane-Peter Baker, The AU Standby Force and the Challenges of Somalia, African Security
Review, 16:2, 2007, p. 122.
90
BBC News, Burundi delays Somali deployment, 7 August 2007,
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/ 6935033 .stm>.
91
Catherine Guicherd (Rapporteur), The AU in Sudan: Lessons for the African Standby Force
(International Peace Academy, 2007).
40
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advice, and technical assistance from external actors. This caused unnecessary
delays, uncertainty, limitations and confusion.92
Like all international organisations, the member states willingness to contribute
motivation, funding and resources of different kinds is decisive for the AUs
ability to implement decisions. For this reason, the AUs development is largely
dependent on its ability to exude confidence both on the continent and
internationally. The development of the AUs capacity in the areas of peace and
security therefore largely depends on the organisations ability to make the latest
wave of Pan-Africanism tangible in a credible form and thereby act as a catalyst
for continental integration. This ability is largely dependent on the member
states perception of the AUs capacity, in relation to the membership cost,
which, in the end, either generates political will and drive, or an implementation
and credibility crisis where financial, personnel and material contributions
quickly disappear. The OAU suffered, to a great extent, from implementation
difficulties when the organisations high-flying ambitions were not supported by
a corresponding political will from its members. At the moment, however, the
majority of member states have a great political willingness to support the AUs
work. It is more the case that there is frustration at the Commissions inability to
execute decisions or make the most of the member states expertise in order to
support the organisations work and processes.93
For this reason, the AUs failed missions and the financial problems, combined
with its weak stance against, for example, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe and
Omar al-Bashir in Sudan, are serious. Its strength and credibility are weakened,
as the high expectations set are not met. The president of Liberia, Ellen Johnson-
Sirleaf, has repeatedly stated that setting expectations that are too high is a major
danger in war-torn regions.94 The same applies to the complicated organisational
climate in Africa, in which loyalties change just as quickly as perceptions of
capacity and returns. It will take a long time to build up the resources and
capacity required to implement the AUs comprehensive Constitutive Act. It is
deemed that 2010 will not be a realistic target for the operability of the ASFs
five brigades within the full scale of deployment scenarios indicated.95 The
organisation must, therefore, be given time, finances and peaceful surroundings
in order to develop this capacity before it is forced into missions that are too
92
Ibid., pp. 34.
93
Interview with Martin Kimani, Senior Researcher at the ISS, Stockholm, 21 January 2008.
94
Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, speech to the Swedish Parliament on 27 November 2007.
95
This clearly emerged at an interview with Colonel Anders Edqvist, former Swedish defence
attach in South Africa, at the Ministry of Defence on 26 November 2007, and at the talk The
Establishment of the African Standby Force A Progress Report, by Henri Boshoff, Institute of
Security Studies (ISS), Pretoria, South Africa, at the Ministry of Defence in December 2007.
41
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comprehensive and that risk upsetting its present status, and the affection for it
among many of Africas leaders and peoples. The AUs leadership also has a
responsibility not to set too high expectations until such time as there is sufficient
capacity and not to create too big a gap between the organisations ambitions and
its actual capacity. External actors who have lent support to the organisations
ambitions by pushing it into complex conflicts also have an important role to
play by focusing on the development of the AUs capacity without asking too
much of missions over the next few years.
96
Kwesi Aning, Africa: Confronting Complex Threats, IPA Coping with Crisis, Working Paper
Series, February 2007, pp. 810.
97
Interview with Martin Kimani.
42
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trust in order to work.98 Once again, it will be difficult for Sweden and other
external actors to strike the right balance.
98
Interview with Anders Edqvist.
43
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5. Conclusions
The African Union was created out of a new wave of Pan-Africanism and has
become a very important organisation for peace and security in Africa in a short
time. Its Constitutive Act gives the organisation the ability to intervene when
there are serious crimes against humanity and non-constitutional changes of
government, such as military coups something that distinguishes the AU from
its toothless predecessor, the OAU. A number of important institutions, such as
the Peace and Security Council, the Panel of the Wise, the Continental Early
Warning System, and the African Standby Force, have been created in a short
time and are accompanied by an impressive doctrine and concept development.
The AU is an organisation with great ambitions regarding the promotion of peace
and security, but which, at the same time, suffers from a serious lack of
resources. Extremely limited finances and a small staff at its headquarters mean
that the organisation has great difficulty meeting the high expectations set. The
AU is, therefore, best described as a skeleton structure that must be given time to
develop the capacity required in order to bridge the gap between ambition and
actual ability. The development of the ASF, based on five regional brigades, is
absolutely central to building up this capacity. Despite the fact that the ASF has
large sections of the brigades ready on paper, there are major gaps within
leadership, training, equipment, transport options and the general health
situation. Having five fully operational brigades ready by 2010 cannot be
regarded as a realistic goal.
Like all international organisations, the AU suffers from the great breadth of
national and regional interests. Just as within the framework of the UN and the
EUs international efforts, the political support of the member states is required
in each individual case and, in particular, contributions in the form of troops,
materiel and diplomacy. The AU will never be more effective than the sum of its
members will. A triangular area of tension has, thereby, arisen between the
AUs ambitions, the organisations resources and capacity and the member
states political interests and will. At present, there is sufficient political will
among the majority of member states while the lack of resources is limiting the
contributions required for effective implementation.
Despite the shortcomings, the AU has, however, carried out an impressive
number of diplomatic tasks, sent observers to conflicts and, in particular, carried
out a number of large-scale peacekeeping operations in difficult areas, such as
Burundi, Darfur and Somalia, since its official inauguration in 2002. The
conclusion is, therefore, that the willingness and ambition that pervade the AUs
44
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45
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process and diplomatic support for missions in Africa. What does the chain
between an individual country, the RECs, the AU and the UN look like in
connection with resolutions and missions? Further questions connected to this are
where are the boundary-defining factors and where should support thereby be
prioritised?
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6. Bibliography
8th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union, 29-30 January 2007,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
African Union, Strategic Plan of the African Union Commission, Vol 1: Vision
and Mission of the African Union, (May 2004).
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union.org/About_AU/AbConstitutive_Act.htm.
African Union Press Release No. 17/2008, Signing of an MoU on the
Relationship between the African Union, CENSAD, ECOWAS and IGAD, 29
January 2008.
Aning, Kwesi, Africa: Confronting Complex Threats, IPA Coping with Crisis,
Working Paper Series, 2007.
Appiah-Mensah, Seth, AUs Critical Assignment in Darfur: Challenges and
Constraints, African Security Review, 14:2 (2005).
Baker, Deane-Peter, The AU Standby Force and the Challenges of Somalia,
African Security Review, 16:2, 2007.
Baregu, Mwesiga and Landsberg, Christopher (eds.), From Cape to Congo:
Southern Africas Evolving Security Challenges (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2003).
Commission for Africa, Our Common Interest: Report of the Commission for
Africa, Mars 2005,
http://www.commissionforafrica.org/english/report/thereport/english/11-03-
05_cr_report.pdf
Daleke, Pia, Afrikanska Unionen (Utrikespolitiska Institutet: 2005).
de Coning, Cedric, Towards a Common Southern African Peacekeeping
System, Electronic Briefing Paper No. 16 (Center for International Political
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Security, Meeting of 29 November, British Embassy, Addis Ababa, 2 December
2007.
Francis, David J., Uniting Africa: Building Regional Peace and Security Systems
(Ashgate: 2006).
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Franke, Benedikt F., Enabling a Continent to Help Itself: U.S. Military Capacity
Building and Africas Emerging Security Architecture, Strategic Insights, 6:1,
2007.
Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continents Emerging Security
Architecture, African Studies Quarterly, 9:3, 2007,
<http://www.africa.ufl.edu/asq/v9/ v9i3a2.htm>.
Golaszinski, Ulrich, Africas Evolving Security Architecture (Friedrich Ebert
Stiftung: 2004).
Guicherd, Catherine (Rapporteur), The AU in Sudan: Lessons for the African
Standby Force (International Peace Academy: 2007).
Ihonvbere, Julius O., Pan-Africanism: Agenda for African Unity in the 1990s,
Keynote address at The All-African Students Conference, Peter Clark Hall,
University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, 27 May 1994,
<http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/30/ 033.html>.
International Peace Academy, Refashioning the Dialogue: Regional Perspectives
on the Brahimi Report on UN Operations (2001).
Juma, Monica and Mengistu, Aida, The Infrastructure of Peace in Africa:
Assessing the Peace Building Capacity of African Institutions (International
Peace Academy: 2002).
Landsberg, Christopher, The Fifth Wave of Pan-Africanism, in Adekeye
Adebajo and Ismail Rashid (eds.), West Africas Security Challenges Building
Peace in a Troubled Region (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2004).
Makinda, Samuel L. and Wafula Okumu, F., The African Union: Challenges of
Globalization, Security and Governance (Routledge: 2007).
Murithi, Timothy, The African Union: Pan-Africanism, Peacebuilding and
Development (Ashgate: 2005).
Njoki, Carole, The African Standby Force The African Solution for African
Problems, Institute for Security Studies (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: 2007).
Peace and Security Council Protocol.
Peace and Security Directorate, <http://www.africa-union.org/
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depPEACE%20AND%20SECURITY%20DIRECTORATE.htm>.
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Military Staff Committee (PART I), Exp/ASF-MSC/2 (I), Document adopted by
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the Third Meeting of African Chiefs of Defence Staff, 15-16 May 2003, Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia.
Powell, Kristiana, The African Unions Emerging Peace and Security Regime:
Opportunities and Challenges for Delivering on the Responsibility to Protect,
ISS Monograph Series, No. 119, 2005.
Prah, Kwesi Kwaa, African Unity, Pan-Africanism and the Dilemmas of
Regional Integration, in Ibbo Mandaza and Dani Nabudere (eds.), Pan-
Africanism and Integration in Africa (SAPES Books: 2002),
<http://www.casas.co.za/papers_AfricanUnity.htm>.
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African Union, www.africa-
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Challenges, (Boulder, 2003).
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www.responsibilitytoprotect.org
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50
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7. Acronyms
AFRICOM Africa Command
AMIB African Mission in Burundi
AMIS African Union Mission in Sudan
AMISOM African Union Mission to Somalia
AMU Arab Maghreb Union
APSA African Peace and Security Architecture
ASF African Standby Force
AU African Union
CAR Central African Republic
CEMAC Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa
CEN-SAD Community of Sahelo-Saharan States
CEWS Continental Early Warning System
CMD Conflict Management Division
COMESA Common Market for East & Southern Africa
DDR Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration
DPKO Department of Peacekeeping Operations
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EASBRIG Eastern Africa Standby Brigade
ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States
ECOBRIG ECOWAS Brigade
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
EU European Union
FOI Swedish Research Defence Agency
FOMAC Multinational Force of Central Africa
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development
ISS Institute of Security Studies
51
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52