Indie Entrepreneurs

The future of the independent music industry

Design Driven Foresight October 2017

Sean Fegan
02 Contents 03

Mega-trends 04
individualism
For the Artists
artists income
26
Introduction
digitalisation online revenue
streaming problems
The Digital Industry 10
personas The music industry has always been a difficult
digital expansion industry to make a break within. Before the
the question
youtube internet, any artists that wanted to make it into
the mainstream would need to go through
spotify Future Forecast 2020 38 a record label to have any chance at fame.
digital consumption indie entrepreneurs Today with help of the internet has seen a
new competitors the industry 2020 massive rise in independent artists hitting the
mainstream and niche.
digital distribution
Reflection 34
It has allowed people to consume and share
references
music instantly, as well as open the scope
of what music they listen to, where other
wise they were informed through traditional
mediums like radio or TV. It has become the
bridge between both the listener and the
artist. However, as the industry gets more
and more connected and readily available,
what lies in the future for Independent artists.
04 05

Mega-trends
The music industry has been continually
changing as we progress further and further
into an online, connected world. From this
there are significant trends which have
shaped the way the industry operates. The
two most significant mega trends that has
and is continuing to change the industry is
individualism, and digitalisation.
06 Mega-trends
Individualism
Power back to musicians.
Where the music industry has been dominated
by the major record labels such as Sony,
Universal and Warner, musicians today have
been straying further and further away from
signing with a major label. In fact, with artists
like The Darkness, Arctic Monkeys, Chance
the Rapper and Blood Orange all gaining
massive success without a label, they had
proven that independent artists can make it
big in the industry without the help of labels.
Despite a lot of these artists later either
creating their own label or signing to a label,
they inspire other independent artists that
they do not necessarily need a label to take
off with their careers and can have more
power when creating their own terms with a
label.
07
A driving force in which has deterred artists
from signing to these labels is creative
direction. A lot of the artists have voiced their
opinions in which they dont want someone
controlling their output, and taking large
profits from it. Where artists with labels
typically receive less than 25% of their total
earnings, the other 75% goes to either the
label or distributors, leaving very little actually
for the artists.
Today artists are seeing more benefits to
having full authority and ownership over their
music instead of the more connected and
networked world of labels, where they can
sing about whatever they want, say whatever
they want and produce and sell their music
how ever they want.
08 Mega-trends
Digitalization
Consumption and demand.
Digitalisation has had one of the greatest
effects on the music industry. From the impact
of the internet sparking the digitalisation
of music in combat to music piracy. Today,
music streaming is the dominant means to
listen to music. This is due to ever improving
data technology, allowing affordable and
reliable broadband to billions of consumers,
but also highly low cost devices which allow
instant connection to online services such as
Youtube, Spotify and iTunes. This demand
of music has had an effect on the way that
artists distribute their music.
In many ways artists may be against using
these services as there is the argument
that they cannot make a sufficient income
through these platforms. However, for any
09
artists wanting to strive in the industry, they
are almost required to utilise them because
of the consumer demand. If they do not use
them, then potential listeners are drastically
less likely to discover them, share them and
the artists is left out of the loop.
However, at the same time, if an artists uses
this in the right way, it can be highly profitable
for them. At the same time, because of this
demand, the online music market is heavily
saturated, which makes it harder for artists to
break out.
 11

The Digital Industry

The music industry today has changed a lot
since 20 years ago. It has grown massively, not
only in consumption or worth, but the variety

We believe that 80%
of the people stealing
of music that is on offer, as well as the variety
of ways to listen. Because of the trends that
stuff dont want to be,
the industry is undergoing, artists today have theres just no legal
ever larger responsibilities and struggles
than they did in the past if they ever want to
make a living from being independent.
alternative.
Steve Jobs

The following section is an analysis of the
industry and how the megatrends have
impacted the industry, as well as the artists.
12 The Digital Industry 13

$30 Billion
Music sales through the ages Total Digital
Digital Expansion
25 Piracy and the digital revolution.
20 Before the rise of the internet, music piracy Around 2005, Youtube began to emerge
had used to be creating illegal copies of cds. and music quickly appeared on the platform,
15 Today, music piracy is more widely known giving a free and legal alternative to iTunes.
as illegally downloading mp3 files without However, throughout this time even till today,
10 paying. Around the millennium, several peer digital piracy has continued to be prevalent.
to peers file sharing services like Napster What has happened however is that we have
5 launched on the internet, and became a hot seen a massive shift in the way people are
spot for illegal sharing of music. consuming music, where physical output
0 sales have rapidly continued to decrease, and
With over 25million users and 80 million the same with downloads, with the rising star
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 songs at its peak, of course, the music industry in the market being music streaming. From
was not happy as they were loosing massive these shifts, the music industry is moving
amounts of money from digital piracy. Despite further and further away from physical, and
this, in 2001 apple launched their 1st gen is focusing on the digital expansion, allowing
iPod which brought digital music to the mass music to easily consumable, and readily
market, and later in 2003 not only bought available, with little to no fees.
the rise of iTunes but consequently sparked
the beginning of CD replacement. Adapting As the industry and consumers push further
to the market, they understood that people and further for on- demand, instant and free
1st Age 2nd Age 3rd Age wanted easier means to access music, and music, how can it be viable for artists to make
Digital Piracy Age CD Replacement Digital Expansion invested heavily in digital music. a living.
14 The Digital Industry
Youtube
The community window to the world.
Youtube, founded in 2005, is today the largest
and most successful online video websites in
the world and one of the most visited overall.
The site today exceeds over 20 billion views
a month and because of this has one of
the largest and most rapidly growing video
sharing communities in the world, consisting
of content creators, viewers, advertisers and
partners. It revolutionised the way that people
all over the globe, can shape and discover
the world.
The great thing about
YouTube is there are
no gatekeepers. No
one is waiting to tell
you if youre good
enough. Its just you
and your audience.
Lindsey Stirling
Providing a platform for creators to share
their work, whether it be daily vlogs, reaction
videos, pranks or music, many of them have
gained fame through the platform, named as
internet celebrities. It has inspired people
all over the world to share their creations,
gathering masses of subscribers along the
way, as well as money through ad revenue.
For example, the most famous youtuber,
Felix Kjellberg PewDiePie, had amassed a
fortune with an estimated yearly income of
$15million, and a subscriber following of over
55 million, for his comedic play-through of
video games.
Where Youtube was once was select to
home produced videos, it has now become
a world wide television, where large shows
like Saturday night live or artists to share
their content for all to see. No surprise, 2008
Youtube discovered, Justin Beibers channel
is the third most subscribed channel on
15
Youtube, with over 30 million subscribers,
with Rhianna, Taylor Swift and Katy Perry at
6th, 7th and 8th respectively. For musicians
a major draw to this service is being able to
share their music, accompanied by a music
video, with the potential to gain a following
community as well a stable career. For their
audience it provides a free way to enjoy and
discover new artists, share and interact with
them.
16 The Digital Industry
Spotify
Explore, discover and share.
With over 140 million active users, Sweden
born digital music streaming service, Spotify,
is arguably the worlds most used music
streaming service. Launched in 2008,
despite it being perceived as a veteran, it has
now become synonymous with peoples idea
of streaming music, and is usually the go to
option. It is based of both a freemium service
and a paid service, where the free option
allows you to listen to any of the 30 million
songs in exchange for listening to adverts.
It gives me a reason to
keep creating when I
see people all over the
world appreciating my
music.
Jay Prince
The paid option, of which 60million of the
users are, allows users to have instant access
to that library, with no adverts, and download
as much of the music as they want, for less
than 10 Euros a month, or 5 with a student
discount.
The service offers a wide variety of music,
as mentioned above, over 30 million songs
and podcasts, and over 2 billion playlists to
61 different markets world wide. Available
on virtually every device, it allows it users
to explore and discover a world of music,
through its multitude of discovery tools, such
as its most popular feature discover weekly
which is a playlist finds new music you may
like. Those looking to find their next favourite
band will also love Spotify for its updated
playlists like Mondays Discover Weekly and
New Music Friday, all of which follow your
listening habits to recommend surprisingly
fitting new artists to match up with your
17
listening tastes. Spotify also allows you to see
what your friends on Facebook are listening
to, and create, share and collaborate on
playlists. Spotify makes it simple to share
your musical tastes, which proves as a great
advertisement tool for artists to gain a larger
audience. It also allows you to have access
to an artists whole catalogue, saving your
favourite songs for later.
18 The Digital Industry 19
11%

20%
n/a
40%
paid
Digital Consumption
Nordic use of digital music services.
40% The Nordic countries are leaders in the digital participants using music streaming services,
free music industry right now due to the rise and 40% of which are paid subscriptions like
41% 48% success of the swedish born Spotify. Polaris spotify premium, and 40% free services. this
Nordic is a company that has researched the gives the impressio nthat for the area, there is a
top music services use of digital music services in the Nordic large move away from even digital download,
nordic streamers
region. The report highlights selected findings and towards streaming. To compare, Youtube
focusing on characterizing the market for was undoubtdly the top music services with
digital music services; behavior and attitude 48% of the study using it, in comparison to
23% on music streaming; the profile of premium iTunes, which relies on digital download at a
29%
longer subscribers and profiles of free/trial version small 11%.
longer 36%
users (non paying users); and the profile of
48% daily
people who stream music/music videos on The users of these services are also using
daily YouTube and Facebook. The sample was them frequently with a 48% usage daily of
just over 1000 participants for each Norway, Spotify and a 36% usage of Youtube. The
29%
Sweden, Finland and Denmark. study illustrates, for the Nordic countries at
weekly 35% least, a strong push away from paying for
weekly The study illustrates several insights of physical or single dowload and towards all-
the nordic music industry. With 80% of the you-can-stream music.
spotify usage youtube usage
20 The Digital Industry 21
4% 8% 10%
live music never pay physical
11%
download

29%
free
26%
paid
Digital Consumption
stream stream International self-conducted study.
85% 27% Conducting a questionaire that was sent to (29%), pay for live music (27%), or pay for
digital stream live people all across Europe, the aim was to streaming services (26%). 8% stated that
find out about the consumption of people they never pay for music and 10% said they
in comparison to the nordic. 52 people paid. The distribution of results show that
main format to listen paying for music participated in the study and the agre group the audiences are equally as likely to pay for
ranged from 19 - 29, 81% of which were music streaming services as they are to use
5h+ female. the free service. It also shows that they are
most willing to pay for live music, that being
5h < 1h 19%
What the study showed first was that the largest income for artists.
not alone
internationally for this demographic, the main
way to listen to music is streaming at 85%. It is interesting to note that from the results
none of the respondents answered physical the majority of people preferred to listen to
4h 1h 19% records. This is likley due to the practicallty of music alone. This could be influenced by the
28% 24% both 61%
digital streaming services. rise of digital music, of which it is supemly
alone
accessible.
2h
When it came to paying for music, suprisingly,
3h
most of the participants answered that they
no not pay but use free streaming services
hours a day listening listening preference
 22 The Digital Industry 23

Following the Trend

New and old competitors in the streaming industry.
Despite Spotify and Youtube being the world artists, however its user bace is relevitley
leaders in on demand music streaming and niche in comparison to Youtube and Spotify.
Spotify Apple Music Sound Cloud music community respectivley, there have
140 Million Active Users 30 Million Active Users 175 Million Active Users been several platforms that have followed In total there around 30 competitors today,
2 Million Artists 40 Million Songs Aprox 10. Million Artists in the footsteps of these platforms. Ofcourse whereas the majority have existed for a
30 Million Songs 125 Million Songs with iTunes being the original and one of the long time, only recently we are seeing
oldest digital music services, it is heavily over these companies jump onto subscription
shadowed by Spotify and Youtube in users. based, on-demand streaming. Last year 3
Because of this it has only recently looked new services were launched, Tidal, Apple
towards capitalising on on-demand streaming Music and Youtube Red. This year alone we
services with their rebrand of Apple Music. have seen the rise of 4 new services, the
re- polished Apple Music, Pandora, Amazon
Other platforms like Deezer and Soundcloud Music and SoundCloud Go, all offering paid
had always been competitors of Spotify and subscriptions. With this rate of services it
Youtube in their own respect, however had interesting to note, not only which of these
Amazon Music Pandora (US only) Tidal failed to achieve the same level of world wide services will survive in the competitive
16 Million Active Users 80 Million Active Users 4.2 Million Active Users success. Soundcloud is an interesting area landscape, but also what new companies will
40 Million Songs 1.5 Million Songs 40 Million Songs as it holds the largest library of independent appear, and how might this benefit artists.
24 The Digital Industry 25

Taxonomy of Artists Distribution

90.7%
Digital Distribution
Aggregators: The missing link to discovery?
Platforms like Youtube and Soundcloud allow discovery. In 2013, IFPI reported that now a
anyone and everyone to upload their music. whopping 35% of the global music industrys
undiscovered However, platforms like Spotify favour artists
with a record label which makes it difficult
revenue is coming from digital channels. 20%
of that is coming from subscription based
for independent artists to get their music streaming services. In Europe, streaming

6.8%
distributed. Artists looking to release their
music online they need an Aggregator, of
developing which is a conduit to help distribute an artists
music globally through digital stores and
services even account for 31% of total industry
revenue.
Because of this demand, artists looking to

1.4% mid-sized streaming platforms. They make their money

by charging upfront fees and/or charging
distribute have to giving up what little revenue
they gain on these platforms. However there

0.9% mainstream a percentage of revenue earned from the

streaming and downloading of said music.
somewhat of an upside to this. In comparison
to record labels, they are less restrictive,

0.2%
and the artist can choose their best suited
Everyones using Spotify, Apple Music and match. By using a distributor it means that
Pandora to get the music they love, but if an they potentially have more chance of being

mega artists music isnt there for there choosing,

they are essentially missing out on potential
discovered as apposed to the incredbily
saturated market of Youtube and Soundcloud.
26 27

For the Artists

Artists today have unlimited possiilities to
distribute and share their music, from live
to physical or digital. However with these

As an independent
artist, youre always
posibilities also lies in the fact that the figuring out how
msuic industry today, because of the digital
expansion, is ever more competitive and youre going to fund
saturated. Because of this, online streaming
platforms can be a unstable means of income
and discovery.
your next album.
Tess Henley

With physical record sales depreciating lower
and lower, and digital streaming demand
raising higher, in what way are independent
artists making money and how?
 28 For the Artists 29
2%
6% Merchandise sales
Money from sound
recordings
6%
Money from songwriting/ 28% Artists Income
composing Touring / Shows/ Live
performances No money, no time, no success.
7%
Other Both for online and physical, its always the artists today are working another job at the
top 1% of artists who earn the most money. same time as their music career, as it seems
Surprisingly enough this top 1% earns 77% of to be the only sustainable income.
all recorded music income, leaving the other
23% to the millions of artists to compete over. However, there is a paradox that lies within
10% However, that is before the respective labels this, where they do not have enough time,
Session and paters get a hand on the income, leaving because of their job, to work on their music,
musician around less than 10% of the earnings to the and thus cannot push their music career and
actual artist. produce as much music, and because they
are not making enough money they cannot
This low income percentage is a driving leave their job.
factor in which artists are pushing to being
independent or creating their own labels. Statistically the odds are against aspiring
22% Even as an independent artist, although they artists, and with the saturation of the market,
19% Teaching can get a higher stake of their earnings, it they cannot rely on their music sales alone.
Salary as an employee infinitely harder. From this if independent Recorded music sales make up only around
of a symphony, band or artists want to support their career, they need 6% of musicians earning whereas other
ensemble to make money in other ways. A lot of aspiring means like teaching make up 22%.
Average Share of Music Income
30 For the Artists 31
Artists revenue per play Typical Cut %

Artist Artist
20% 60% Online Revenue
Selling out online.
Spotify Google Play Despite the online digital sales of music rising, With all this in mind, It begs the question why
for small artists there is very little money to do artists still use these streaming services
unsigned: $0.007 unsigned: $0.0179 be made here, only gaining percent of cents despite not gaining a sufficient income?
signed: $0.0011 signed: $0.0073 Label per play of their music. It is with the top artists
who can forefit from using services like this, it all boils down to connectivity. It is more
55% but for reletivily unknown artists, there has benefitial for an artists to use these services as
been alot of contriversey surrounding the a means to distribute as apposed to earning
little reward that artists get for contributing to revenue. If they are not on these services
the streaming services. then they risk further distancing themselves
from the rest of the world.
Despite unsigned artists earning more money
per play of their music, ultimatley it is the A benefit of these services is the analytical
artists on labels that gain alot more attention data that an artist has acess to on their
Distributor Distributor and thus plays. However for independent listeners, they are able to see what is their
Youtube Tidal 25% 40% artists, it is not so easy getting on a label, as most popular song, in what country and what
well as more and more artists are wanting to is their current impact on the world.
unsigned: $0.0018 unsigned: $0.043 stay away from being a signed artists.
signed: $0.0003 signed: $0.007 signed unsigned
32 For the Artists
What this feels like from the communitys
perspective, is that advertisers are a bigger
Casey Neistat
priority to this platform than the community.
Streaming Problems
By the community, for the advertisers.
The many stream services state they want
what is best for the artists, but in actual
fact, with the demand of the market, these
streaming services are designed to benefit
the listener, partners or advertisers, but
neglect the community of which created the
value of the service.
Creating the best user experience allows
services like Spotify of Youtube to gain loyalty
to their brand and allow as much traffic to
their service. More loyalty means that they
will get more distribution trhough peer to
peer. This means they can gain more money
through advertisements and partnerships.
Because the services are dependent on
their advertisers, they want to keep them
happy, despite backlash from their respective
33
communities. What makes Youtube special
and valuable is its community, as without
the community, Youtube wouldnt exist. This
year we saw the rise of the ad-pocalypse
in which major advertisers were pulling
out from Youtube from result of monetised
controversial content.
What followed suit was Youtube bending over
for its advertisers and implementing new rules
which fundamenally reduced the content
creators income by 80%. From this we saw
a shift in Content creators moving some of
their content to other platforms like Twitch.tv
and Patreon. With all of this uproar, it begs to
question how long will the communities put
up with the problems before they decide to
move somewhere new?
34 For the Artists Personas 35

Suyog
25, unsigned musician and singer
Bio
I am originaly from India but am studying
engineering in Helsinki. Busking and live
performaces has been a great way for me
to earn a little extra money, however I dont
have alot of time to focus on just my music
Martina
30, nurse and music consumer
Bio
I am Finnish born and raised. I have been
living in Helsinki since i was young. Every
moment i have, I listen to music. Thats why
I love using spotify because i can listen to
music on the go, like when I walking my dog

or to work.
Architype Publishing new music Spotify has allowed
Musical Explorer is so easy. You can Architype me to listen to all the
Dog Lover
Distribution Channels reach people easier music I want, for a
Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, Instagram than before, but at Social Channels reasonable price. I
Facebook, Instagram
Listening Channels the same time there is dont think I would
Spotify, Youtube, Soundcloud. so much content out Listening Channels ever go back to paying

Spotify, Youtube.
there it is difficult to for music.
reach or stand out.

36 For the Artists 37

What is the future landscape

of the music industry where
The Question
independent artists benefit As more and more streaming services appear

from consumers accessing on the market, consumers and artists have

more options to choose from, and with this

and sharing their music are looking for the best deals to access and

distribute music. These platforms are futher

quickly and easily? improving to allow a better bridge between

the artists and listener.

The saturation of these online markets have

heavily infuenced the way that artists are
viewed and make money, with the mass
majority of artists being unsigned or even
undiscovered. With artists also acknowledging
that streaming services offer little potential
for making a sustainable income, how are
they going to be using services like these in
the future, and what new services or features
may appear?
38
Independent artists
and labels have
always been the trend
setters in music and
the music business.
Shawn Fanning - Napster
Future Forecast 2020
Data as a weapon for success.
The wold of music has become ever more
digital, with every person having a device
which completley syncs their entire web
world together, the mass population no
longer favour paying for their music and want
it instantly available. Social media has been
heavily ingrained into every streaming service
to allow for instant sharing and connectivity
between friends.
The rapidly growing number of independent
artists have realised the value of data
crunching, and aim to put themselves on
every platform to obtain as much data as
possible. Day by day, every user readily
gives up their data which, for independent
musicians, is gold and more valuable than the
revenue gained.
39
For the music industry, data is a driving factor
of how they develop. Monitoring what people
are talking about online, they are ever more
cautious to please their users, both artists and
listeners. This is because within the highly
competitive landscape, they have realised
that their community and creators are the
driving value of their model, as without them
they would fail.
As in the past, streaming service creators
had been continuously left in the dark by the
largest of platforms, any service that doesnt
give their creators a voice can quickly find
their creators have moved to a new platform,
and with that the community follows.
40 Future Forecast 2020
Indie Entrepreneurs
2020; data driven musicians and personalities.
Data and analytics, of which was a novelty to
unsigned musicians; independent musicians
have now realised the potential of these
tools to impact how they act throughout
the industry. Most streaming platforms have
offered the ability to view this data, but as the
industry has continued to rapidly grow, it has
made it alot more difficult to gain revenue
through these services. Savy artists view
this data and analytics as a hugely impactful
resource and strive to distribute themselves
on as many platforms as possible for this
reason.
We are now seeing music artists not only
produce and distribute music on each major
streaming platform, but also branch out into
new areas to give their followers an insight
41
into their life. Artists have become not just
voices but internet personalities, using video
streaming to post vlogs, behind the scenes
footage, music videos and more. Gaining a
large social media presence has given artists
the ability to close the gap between their
listeners and engage on a personal level.
Artists have become multi-platform and
multi disciplinary personalities, preforming
every part of creation to distribution process
independently. They then analyse and use the
data that they have gathered to show them
where to invest their time to make a solid
income. This data can show artists where and
when to tour and preform gigs in order to sell
out, as well as how to disribute their music
merchandise.
42 Future Forecast 2020
The Industry 2020
Publicity and community poaching.
Back in 2017, Youtube was struck by the
infamous Ad-pocalypse, in which favouring
advertisers instead of their community and
creators led them to loose a significant user
base. Today however, they have recovered
and are still the leading online streaming
platform. Youtube finally realised the
importance of giving their creators more of
a voice and power over the service. It was
costly in the short term but today they are
reaping the rewards.
The music streaming industry has continued
to rapidly grow, influencing a rise of more
platforms as competitors to the streaming
giants. The industry has seen the rise of new
streaming platforms like Facebook Music and
Netflix Indie. Because of this competition,
and musicians being on several platforms,
not giving loyalty to one, the industry has
given power to its content creators as they
understand that is what brings people to their
service.
43
Where Youtube was safe, streaming
platforms are now at risk if they mistreat their
contributors; if artists loose faith in a service
and moves to a platform that offers better -
the artists community will follow. This has
opened up new oppertunites in which service
providers are keeping close eyes on their
contributors and other services, looking out
for the flaws in other services to give them
oppertunity to poach their communities.
In this way musicians, where as before
they were crushed by the revenue rates of
these platforms, artists can now pick and
choose the best deals between them. Artists
have learned that they are able to leverage
these services and open strong revenue
oppertunities, being given the oppertunity
to select and source their own advertisers
on their content. This allows artists to gain
more income and have adverts that are more
related to themselves.
44 45

Reflection

As a whole I have enjoyed the project and

found it interesting to delve deeper into a
topic I have a huge interest in. Whereas my
forecast is very close into the future and not
so eccentric, it seems very much in tune with
what is currently happeing in the industry or
more or less what should happen.

I believe it is more of a vision for how artists

and the music industry should act to make it
benefitial for both parties. The report could
act as a guideline for artists to follow to
capatilise on the platforms and sway their
opinions on them.
46 References
References
http://www.billboard.com/articles/business/6605326/how-much-do-artists-make-music-industry-earnings
http://www.harmonycentral.com/articles/lets-make-a-deal--the-ins-and-outs-of-record-deals-part-1
http://content.hudsonjeans.com/famous-musicians-who-prove-you-dont-need-a-record-label
http://www.complex.com/music/2015/04/musicians-whove-found-success-without-major-labels/odd-future
https://www.wix.com/blog/2016/02/5-self-made-musicians-that-made-it-big/
https://sabotagetimes.com/music/the-10-greatest-unsigned-bands-in-history
https://bandzoogle.com/blog/major-vs-indie-what-really-happens-when-you-sign-a-record-deal
https://www.slideshare.net/music4point5/pete-downton-7digital-the-three-ages-of-digital-music
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150204/07310329906/yes-major-record-labels-are-keeping-nearly-all-
money-they-get-spotify-rather-than-giving-it-to-artists.shtml
https://www.fastcompany.com/1514469/brief-impactful-history-youtube
https://socialblade.com/blog/youtube-rich-list-highest-earning-creators-2016/
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