Media movil Aritmetica

meses Hh soldador n=3 error n=4 error Error real error acumulado
1 34
2 35
3 33
4 36 34.0 2.0
5 34 34.7 0.7 34.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5
6 33 34.3 1.3 34.5 1.5 -1.5 -2
7 33 34.3 1.3 34 1 -1 -3
8 35 33.3 1.7 34 1 1 -2
9 36 33.7 2.3 33.75 2.25 2.25 0.25
10 37 34.7 2.3 34.25 2.75 2.75 3
11 36.0 35.25
1.7 1.5 error medio absoluta
n
Mean Absolute Deviation MAD

i = 1
D i
M m n = Seal de Rastreo
n

Media Movil Ponderada

meses Hh soldador n=3 error abs n=4 error abs pond 1

1 34 0.1
2 35
3 33 0.1
4 36 33.9 2.1
5 34 34.7 0.7 34.8 0.8
6 33 34.7 1.7 34.6 1.6
7 33 33.7 0.7 33.6 0.6
8 35 33.1 1.9 33.4 1.6
9 36 34 2 34.1 1.9
10 37 35.3 1.7 35.1 1.9
11 36.4 36.1
1.5 1.400

Media Movil Exponencial

meses Hh soldador error abs ALFA

1 34 0.1
2 35 34 1.00
3 33 34.1 1.10
 4 36 33.99 2.01
5 34 34.191 0.19
6 33 34.172 1.17
7 33 34.055 1.05
8 35 33.949 1.05
9 36 34.054 1.95
10 37 34.249 2.75
11 34.524
1.364

70
TENDENCIA REGRESION
f(x) = 30.771625779 exp( 0.07575608
meses Demanda Ejes (t) 60
R = 0.9859980907
1 34 50
2 35 40
3 38
30
4 41
5 45 20

6 48 10
7 55 0
8 58 0 2 4 6 8

9 61
10 63
11 67.3996
25
23 110.1628

ESTACIONALIDAD 20

meses Hh soldador Indice Deses

1 10 0.96 10.4 15
2 20 1.8 11.0
3 15 11.2 1.3 1.3 11.8
10
4 8 11.4 0.7 0.7 11.4
5 3 11.6 0.3 0.3 11.6
6 11 11.4 1.0 0.96 11.4 5

7 21 11.6 1.8 1.8 11.6

8 14 11.6 1.2 1.3 11.0 0
0 2 4
9 9 0.7 12.8
10 3 0.26 11.6
11 11.39299465 0.96 11.8
 meses Hh soldador Factor Estacional Serie sin Estacionalidad
1 300 358 0.527 568.994
2 540 650 0.957 564.092
3 885 1038 1.529 578.916
4 580 670 0.987 587.791
5 416 358 0.527 789.006
6 760 650 0.957 793.908
7 1191 1038 1.529 779.084
8 760 670 0.987 770.209

Promedio Gen 679

semana Demanda
1 4
2 6
3 8
4 2
5 4
6 7
7 8
8 3

Demanda
1 1 4 0.7619 5.25

2 2 6 1.3023 4.60714
5
3 3 8 5 1.6 5
5
4 4 2 5.125 0.3902 5.125
5.25
1 5 4 5.25 0.7619 5.25
5.25
2 6 7 5.375 1.3023 5.375
5.5
3 7 8 1.6 5

4 8 3 0.3902 7.6875
 error acumulado 91

81

71

61

51

41

31

21

11

lute Deviation MAD 1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

pond 2 pond 3
0.4 0.5 1

0.1 0.3 0.5 1

 = 30.771625779 exp( 0.0757560883 x )
= 0.9859980907

4 6 8 10 12

25

20

15

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1400

1200

1000
 1400

1200

1000

800
f(x) = 39.6386713479x + 500.6259789346
R = 0.7560739377
600

400

200

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 12
ESTACIONALIDAD
meses Hh soldador Indice Deses
1 820 1.25 654.4
2 796 1.2 643.1
3 600 643.2 0.9 0.9 635.7
4 400 639.2 0.6 0.6 639.2
5 600 637.6 0.9 0.9 637.6
6 800 638.4 1.3 1.25 638.4
7 788 636.6 1.2 1.2 636.6
8 604 632.6 1.0 0.9 640.0
9 391 0.6 624.8
10 580 0.94 616.3
11 785.7652839 1.25 627.0