Norway Hill Associates

30 Norway Hill Road

Hancock, New Hampshire 03449
Phone: 603-525-3820 Fax: 603-525-3819

To: Abbott Team

From: David Carney, Senior Advisor
Date: Monday, November 13, 2017
Re: Virginia Points to a Rocky Road for All Republicans

It would be easy to put our head in the sand and ignore the results from the Virginia
Gubernatorial Election. It would be easy for us to say Texas is not Virginia. It would be easy for
us to say the Democrats in Texas arent that well organized. However, that would be a huge
mistake.

The Virginia election should serve as a wakeup call for all Republicans, up and down the ballot,
even in Texas.

Here are some important things to keep in mind:

The results in Virginia were not caused by Republicans running a bad campaign. The Republican
candidate got more votes than any Republican running for Governor of Virginia has ever gotten
and still lost. Republican voters showed up but were overwhelmed by Democrat enthusiasm.

This wasnt a case of a great Democrat candidate turning out the vote. Ralph Northam is no
Barack Obama. In fact, most observers consider Northam a bad candidate and progressive
organizations stopped mobilization efforts on his behalf because of his opposition to sanctuary
cities. Yet Democrat turnout was off the charts.

The results point to serious problems for Republicans amongst suburban voters. The Democrat
ran 5% better amongst suburban voters than Clinton did when she narrowly won Virginia last
November. But the bigger problem was voter turnout. The Northern Virginia suburbs saw
turnout increase substantially while the rest of the state turned out at historic levels.

We will have to deal with these very same problems (and they could be much worse in another
year) during our reelection. No matter who the Democrat candidate is, Democrats will turn out
to vote in higher numbers than ever before to voice their displeasure with President Trump.
Without Hilary Clinton to push them away suburban swing voters will lean Democratic in
reaction to the national political environment.
 November 13, 2017 NORWAY HILL ASSOCIATES

Like Virginia, Texas is growing and in doing so it is becoming more suburban, more independent
and more easily influenced by the national political environment.

Just keep in mind that before Tuesday Republicans controlled the Virginia House of Delegates
66 to 34. With three races still too close to call Democrats now hold a 49 to 48 advantage.

The enthusiasm gap that we face is real. It is going to take a concerted effort by the campaign
to overcome it, not just for ourselves, but for the down ballot races that will be depending on
us to pull them over the line.

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