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Examples
1. I usually buy either one or two packets of biscuits each
time I go to the store with probabilities 0.4 and 0.4,
respectively. The packets cost Rs.10 each. However,
sometimes, (with 0.2 probability,) there is a sale when
the packets are sold at Rs.8 per pack, when I buy 10
packs. What is my average spend?
Expectation
Expectation of a random variable is the long-run average,
when computed over a very large number of trials.
Expectation can theoretically be measured through the
weighted average of the values of the random variable,
weighted by the corresponding probabilities.
Examples
1. I usually buy either one or two packets of biscuits each
time I go to the store with probabilities 0.4 and 0.4,
respectively. The packets cost Rs.10 each. However,
sometimes, (with 0.2 probability,) there is a sale when
the packets are sold at Rs.8 per pack, when I buy 10
packs. What is my average spend?
Variance
The variance of a random variable measures its spread.
For a discrete random variable X taking values x1, x2, ,
xn with probabilities p(x1), p(x2), , p(xn) respectively,
Variance is given by
n
V(X) (xi - E(X))2 p(xi )
i1
n
xi2p(xi ) E(X)2
i1
Examples
1. I usually buy either one or two packets of biscuits each
time I go to the store with probabilities 0.4 and 0.4,
respectively. The packets cost Rs.10 each. However,
sometimes, (with 0.2 probability,) there is a sale when
the packets are sold at Rs.8 per pack, when I buy 10
packs. What is my average spend? Whats the variance?
SD?
Properties of a Function
A coin is tossed. P(head) = p.
Let X = 1 if head, 0 if tail. E(X) = ? V(X)=?
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Properties
1. True for all variables: If X is a random variable, and a and b
are two constants, then
V(aX) = a2V(X), V(b+X) = V(X).
Together: V(b+aX) = V(aX) = a2V(X)
Two dice
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Two Dice
Y= sum of outcome based on two throws of a fair die
Percentile/Quantile
100p th percentile or p-th quantile of a distribution is a
number Q such that F(Q)=p.
Note: If such a Q does not exist, then we choose the
smallest Q such that F(Q)p.
Value at Risk
For a financial portfolio, for a given time horizon,
and probability p, the p VaR is defined as the (100-p)th
percentile of the loss distribution.
For example, if a portfolio of stocks has a one-day 5% VaR
of Rs. 1 Lakh, that means that the 95th percentile of the
distribution of losses for one-day period is Rs. 1Lakh.
It means: there is a 0.05 probability that the portfolio will fall
in value by more than Rs. 1 Lakh over a one-day period if
there is no trading.
Well come back to it when we discuss continuous random
variables.
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Examples:
Probability distribution of the number of rainy days in
Ahmedabad this year.
Probability distribution of the waiting time till the first day of rain
in terms of number of days after official onset of monsoon.
Probability distribution of number of children out of 100
randomly chosen kids of age 10 who have dropped out of
school.
Probability distribution of a rare event, say defects in a page
of our case mat.
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P(X=k) =
P(X>k) = SURVIVAL FUNCTION!
P(X>k+r|X>k) =
E(X) =
V(X) =