Praxeology, Psychohistory, Economics

Enrico Mattia Salonia

Abstract

The aim of this study is to attain a definition of the epistemological foundation of "Psychohistory"

which the American novelist Isaac Asimov imagined and described as a "science" during the

narration set in the fantastical universe he created during his life.

This foundation will be compared and evaluated trough profiles of possible continuity between

the imaginary creation of his author and the analytical perspective borrowed from the science of

"Praxeology" theorized by the Austrian economist and philosopher Ludwig Von Mises.

I will then underline some particular features of this two visions, referring to the possibility of the

prevision of future states of the world in an economic sense.

The study will select some theorized limits of economic prevision which remain solid despite the

developments imagined in the idealistic future of Asimov and evaluate if, at a speculative level,

useful suggestions in order to surpass those limits may be taken from the examined context.

I will then give a glance of how Economics could actually be oriented toward these paths, in the

1
general interest of human collectivity.

I must here thank my father Giovanni Salonia for the precious suggestions and moral support he gave my during this

research, despite the fact I was on the other side of the world.
1 Every first time I ever quote a book theres a note which refers to it. In addition to this a complete and detailed list

of references can be found at the end of the article. Every quotation by Von Mises is taken by the book "Theory and

History" that you can find in the references section. In the last page you can also find a table of contents.

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 1 PRAXEOLOGY

1 Praxeology

The philosopher Ludwig Von Mises tried throughout his life to subsume the particular behaviors of hu-

man beings inserting them into a complete system that hadnt the aim of predicting, but of explaining

what is the appropriate method to analyze and comment on them.

The Austrian called his theory, or rather his science, "Praxeology." To Von Mises Praxeology was the

science which explains human action, as he had called it in his most famous work "Human Action"2 .

Currently it is possible to argue without the fear that this statement seems forced that the theory of

human action developed by Von Mises has radically changed the philosophy and methodology of the

social sciences since it constitutes a convincing and comprehensive way to assess behaviors of sentient

beings.

Once looked for the epistemological foundations and established his science axioms Von Mises did not

wait to exploit his findings in order to evaluate other approaches in vogue at that time; the debate

between members of the "Austrian School" and "historicist" is famous, as an example.

Von Mises concentrated in studying the forward edge of the "queen" of social sciences, economics,

criticizing his mathematisation and its assumptions.

Inside the complex but comprehensive Von Mises theory it is not difficult to find references to other

capital issues, such as the approach to historical sciences (with particular reference to the question of

determinism and free will raised in previous centuries), passing trough Marxist historical materialism

theory.

Correlatively the Austrian thinker had externalized many reserves with respect to the dominant sci-

entism and scientific positivism rampant in the early twentieth century, with the consequent criticism

toward the attempt of applying natural sciences methods to the social sciences in order to bring them

on the side of the "hard" sciences, thus eliminating any actual "human" component with a alleged goal

of systematization and objectivity.

I will consider Von Mises theories in favor of methodological dualism and methodological individualism

taking into account the implications of these assumptions as presupposition in the philosophy of history

and in social sciences forecasting attempts.

2 Ludwig Von Mises, "Human Action", Ludwig Von Mises Institute 1998 [original 1949]

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 2 PSYCHOHISTORY

I will then compare "Praxeology" with "Psychohistory" explaining during this analysis some possi-

ble but singular and astonishing interactions and parallelisms between Praxeology and the fictitious

Psychohistory, invented by the American author Isaac Asimov.

2 Psychohistory

2.1 The Robot Cycle

"Psychohistory" is mentioned for the first time in the novel "The Robots of Dawn"3 .

Psychohistory was in that narrative context only a vague idea in the mind of the roboticist Han Fastolfe,

character present in Asimov Robot cycle4 .

In the universe in which the cycle is set humans and Robots coexist, automatons are of many different

types and are usually employed in manual works such as cultivation, industrial processes and housewives

chores.

Only some of the robots in the cycle have human form or have special features that distinguish them

from the great mass of the robot.

The behavior of these automated beings is always governed by three fundamental laws5 , toward which

every choice and volition of the Robot must be imprinted under penalty of automatic and irreversible

"shutdown".

At a certain point of his narration Asimov makes the character of Dr. Fastolfe (who is indicated in

the book as "the most famous roboticist all over the Galaxy" and therefore maximum expert of the

functioning and the interaction between these three laws) express the ambition of identifying and clas-
3 Isaac Asimov,"I robot dellalba", Mondadori 1983 [original, "The Robots of Dawn", 1983]
4 The Robot Cycle is formed by all the novels and short stories which publication date lays between "I, Robot" [1950] and

"Robots and Empire" [1985]

5 Even if the explicit expression of Laws of Robotic is useless for my purpose I will here report them, as quoted in "I,Robot",

mentioned in the references section, in order to give a glance of what kind of "law" of behavior Asimov intended as Law

of robotics:

1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First

Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.

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2.2 The Foundation Cycle 2 PSYCHOHISTORY

sifying as for Robots fundamental "laws" of human behavior and establish in this way a new science he

germinally called "Psychohistory".

Laws of robotics were indeed conditions the builder could implant inside the robot during its construc-

tion to determine how the latter would have behaved: the character Fastolfe similarly had the idea of

finding out what are the natural laws which regulates peoples behavior.

I believe that it is appropriate to underline that Isaac Asimov, born in Russia and emigrated to the

United States, had a degree in chemistry at Columbia University in New York and became a popular

science writer in America during his lifetime; we are therefore sure of the fact that he had an extraor-

dinary attitude and specific acquaintance in the field of science.

His cultural deep-rooted condition surely and significantly contributed to allow him to develop Psy-

chohistory with a trace of scientific method, a work that would have been tough or even impossible by

an author devoid of above mentioned attitudes and intellectual competences.

2.2 The Foundation Cycle

The thread that runs through Asimov works in order to connect the Robot cycle to his famous "Foun-

dation cycle"6 is precisely that of Psychohistory.

The "prequel"7 to the original trilogy describes in fact the way in which the protagonist, the math-

ematician "Hari Seldon," comes to systematize Psychohistory making it a science able to accomplish

what it sets out: predict the future stages of human society starting from usual behaviors and past

customs.

In the opening pages of the first book of the main trilogy8 it is imagined that Hari Seldon, the creator

of "Psychohistory", was able to predict the decay of the Empire and that because of this his ideas were

opposed by the central system and the emperor.

The trilogy is in general focused on the existence of the so called "Foundation", a planet at the edge

of the galaxy that Hari Seldon had peopled with scientists predicting that his actions would have con-

siderably reduced the time necessary in order to form a second empire which would have concluded the
6 The Foundation is formed by all the novels which publication date lays between "Foundation" [1951] and the posthumous

"Forward the Fundation" [1993]. The cycle was enriched by many novels and short stories published by other authors.
7 The prequels of the Foundation cycle are "Prelude to the Foundation", [1988] and "Forward the Foundation", [1993]
8 "Foundation", [1951]

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 3 ECONOMICS

period of barbarism that Seldon had predicted as a direct consequence of the disintegration of the first

empire.

During the whole course of the narration numerous references to Psychohistory can be found: as already

mentioned Asimov himself was a scientist and this is clear to all those who face the reading of his books

with a small cultural background regarding methods and foundations of sciences.

Asimov describes the axioms of Psychohistory, the context within his forecasting can work, its methods

and the way Hari Seldon conceived it.

It is not difficult to see these fantasies of the author as a personal and sensitive research, at an initial

stadium of development, about laws of human action, the predictability of those actions and the pos-

sibility to study them and make a theory about social behavior.

3 Economics

It is not straightforward to give a unique and precise definition of economic science, taking into account

that its branches and its goals are so vast and varied that a plain definition could cut out some important

aspects.

But its not wrong to say that at least the more theoretical economists objective is to find out what

are the requirements from which it is possible to start in order to comment and describe social events,

from those that relate only to the individual up to those who have to deal with more complex societies

such as sovereign states and international organizations.

Economists often tempted to apply theoretical results to make predictions about the possible future

states of the world, often with the help of statistics and econometrics.

Econometricians are essentially dedicated to the research for evidence of recurrent cycles and processes

which are so clear that can be used to determine, at least with a certain probability, the price of a

security or the GDP of a nation.

The reason of these tentatives, sometimes defined as a velleity, was of course discussed at length.

The induction and inference problems have not obvious solutions and it is not straightforward to state

that a economic model is useful to predict although it is still efficient to "describe".

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 3 ECONOMICS

Economics raises almost all the problems related to social science method since it is the widest in term

of branches and intents and the most analytical among them.

Von Mises Praxeology is just his attempt to reach an organic and systematic vision of how economic

science should proceed, on which axioms it sould be based on and what are its limitations.

"Psychohistory" imagined by Asimov has the aim to achieve not so much different ambitions from

economics, Im not the first one who notices this parallelism. Paul Krugman, nobel laureate in eco-

nomics, mentioned Hari Seldon as his inspiration to study Economics since it is the closest thing to

Psychohistory, according to him9 . This question introduces the interrogative of what the author kept

in his reflections; whether Asimov wanted Psychohistory to actually constitute a reinterpretation of

economics and whether it was a prophetic intent of possible development.

Anyway the fact that the chemist, transformed into novelist, gave birth to a model of "science" giving

it axiomatic and auto sufficient assumptions which bring to an instrumental finalization, is a happy

index of fertility.

Where Von Mises is obviously the author of a coherent and articulated thinking which he develops in

another enormously more complex context, Asimov is the author of the mere fictitious hypothesis of

the existence of a science, but still critical observation can be made about the internal logic of these

conceived systems and about the degree of possibility and complete transposition in an applied practice.

On the other hand, economics is a science always forced to face problems that inevitably arise during

its application.

The curiosity I feel that pushed me to the unusual experiment is clear.

I will present in the following observations a tentative of finding links or even simple logical assonances

which could be discovered between these three "sciences", "systems", "field of knowledge".
9 Paul krugman writes: "Admittedly, there were those science fiction novels. Indeed, they may have been what made me

go into economics. Those who read the stuff may be aware of the classic Foundation trilogy by Isaac Asimov. It is one

of the few science fiction series that deals with social scientists the "psychohistorians", who use their understanding

of the mathematics of society to save civilization as the Galactic Empire collapses. I loved Foundation, and in my early

teens my secret fantasy was to become a psychohistorian. Someday there will exist a unified social science of the kind

that Asimov imagined, but for the time being economics is as close to psychohistory as you can get".

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 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

4 The prevision of the Future

A scheme of the establishment of "Psychohistory" can be made by synthesizing information available

in the famous so called "Foundation Series".

Hari Seldon exposes for the first time ever his theory in front of ad audience of mathematicians at a

conference in "Prelude to Foundation"10 .

Asimov gives to his character the role of defining the germ attempt of demonstrating that "studying

human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and eliminate chaos through appropriate assump-

tions, and therefore it is possible to predict the future, not accurately, by very wide strokes, without

absolute certainty, but based on calculated probabilities"11 .

The character himself affirms to believe that this was nothing more than a speculative exercise since

it would have been necessary to collect a high number of information in order to process them with a

unimaginable computing power, despite his demonstration of theoretical possibility: here he concluded

that Psychohistory was "possible but not feasible".

The question is now reportable from a historical perspective and out of the tale to the controversy

about economic calculation in the socialist state, which Von Mises studied for a long time trying to

prove that it was not possible. Classical general equilibrium theories does not actually make out so

much difference in aspirations and claims compared to Seldon Psychohistory.

General economic equilibrium indeed models the initial situation in terms of purposes of the agents

which are taken into account, and calculates equilibria to predict how they will behave given that

framework: it is then expected to predict the future after having chosen a starting point.

Probably general equilibrium theory gave birth to the the widely spread current of "economic planning".

The theory had increased the existing perception of the possibility to manage initial conditions in order

to reach a more or less desirable future, depending on the point of view.

Parallels with Asimov scheme are glaring: as soon as the protagonist Hari Seldon had exposed his theory

in public he was immediately summoned by the emperor who hoped to use Psychohistory for its own

ends in term of perpetuating his domain on the galaxy.

The emperor expected that the mathematician would have been able to predict the duration and pros-

perity of his reign, and then spread these forecasts to the population in order to get them to behave
10 Isaac Asimov, "Preludio alla Fondazione", Mondadori 1989 [original "Forward the Foundation" 1988]
11 This quotation is taken by the book "Prelude to Foundation"

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4.1 The axioms of Praxeology and Psychohistory 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

like an exact science as Psychohistory suggested.

The emperor would have been deeply disappointed by Von Mises theory, who believed that this esti-

mate calculation was literally impossible, denying the "possibility" for human being to produce such an

intellectual developing as Psychohistory as intended by Asimov is.

His student, Friederich Von Hayek, corrected the theory of his master arguing that the calculation

was theoretically possible but, as the fictional character Hari Seldon supports, not feasible given the

complexity of this calculation.

It seems possible however a further and stimulating particular level of detailed comparison, developed

in the following observations.

4.1 The axioms of Praxeology and Psychohistory

Ludwig Von Mises opens his book "Theory and History"12 with one of the phrases that best reflects his

doubts about the possibility for human being to be able to predict the future, in the sense intended so far:

Mortal man does not know how the universe and all that it contains may appear to a superhuman

intelligence. Perhaps such an exalted mind is in a position to elaborate a coherent and comprehensive

monistic interpretation of all phenomena.

Von Mises starts from the premise that science, at least from a methodological point of view, must

adopt a dualistic view. Von Mises methodological dualism is not a metaphysics establishment but

a simple admission of the fact that we do not know how physical external events directly condition

thoughts and purposes of human beings.

From here we must strictly distinguish "the realm of external events, commonly called nature, and the

kingdom of thought and human action".

Von Mises claims at this point that human beings act intentionally in view of the chosen end in any

circumstance, they act to found themselves in a situation which at that time is the most satisfying,

otherwise acting would be useless and no one would ever choose to change is status.

Building on this premise, he states that until it is demonstrated in favor of positivism a clear and direct
12 Ludwig Von Mises, "Teoria e Storia", Rubbettino 2009 [original "Theory and History", 1957]

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4.1 The axioms of Praxeology and Psychohistory 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

way in which external events affect purposes and ideas of human beings, then the attempt to circum-

vent methodological dualism is exclusively an epistemological assumption and not a demonstration of

precision or objectivity.

The necessity of Methodological dualism is therefore according to Von Mises clear: natural events de-

velop always in the same way, given a starting condition, while the same can not be said about human

behavior.

These conclusion connote the ambitions of the character Han Fastolfe (already mentioned as one of the

Robot cycle protagonist) as unrealistic and unachievable because, if it is manageable to determine how

a robot act in a given situation given the three law of Robotics which the automaton cant disobey, the

same can not be said of human beings no matter how general and comprehensive are the laws that can

be assumed.

Asimov manifests his consciousness of this limit through the narration of Hari Seldon conversation with

the Emperor during which the former suggests to the latter: "...think about how scientists approached

the study of subatomic particles. We are dealing with huge amounts of these particles, and each moves

or vibrates in a random and unpredictable manner, however, this chaos has a basic order, so here we

can develop a quantum mechanics that responds to all the questions that we can formulate. Studying

society, we put humans in the place of subatomic particles, but in that case the additional factor of the

human mind takes over"13 .

Asimov then demonstrates to be acquainted with the fact that the "prevision" in the field of physics

is in a certain sense more viable than it is in the field of social sciences; furthermore the distinction he

accomplish do not differ substantially from that of Von Mises.

The Austrian philosopher however felt that such a condition would make the prediction of human

action literally impossible, while Asimov perception tunes better to Von Hayeks philosophy which

stated that even if the unpredictability of human being did constitute a factor of exponential increase

of the necessary calculations, in theory, the prediction is still possible and not impossible, tout court.
13 This quotation is taken by the book "Prelude to Foundation" [1988]

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4.2 Methodological Dualism consequences 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

4.2 Methodological Dualism consequences

The realization of the fact that methods for assessing human action must be necessarily different

from methods of natural sciences, hence the decision to establish the above described Methodological

Dualism, has consequences in Praxeology, but also in the experiment which aim o constitute an episte-

mological foundation of Psychohistory.

After determining that the first reason why a man act is reaching an end he has determined Von Mises

develops his observations.

To the Austrian it is confusing to evaluate this dynamic in the same way we could evaluate the fall of

a mass, but it is also clear that Praxeology can only be limited to study how the predetermined end is

reached.

Praxeology is, in this sense, the study of the means and not of the end.

Von mises supports his position by stating that the way through the man predetermines his purpose

can not be the subject of any science that has a claim of precision, because such a process, which takes

place within the mind of a single man, will never be analyzed and deeply understood by other men.

According to Von Mises in fact it can be established that a certain mean to achieve a purpose is wrong

while the purpose itself can not be decreed right or wrong.

The first of the two processes is a "Technical judgment", while the second is a "Value judgment":

much can be said about "Value judgments", but thats not what Praxeology has the intent to deal

with.

The reflection that this position reverberates in economics is the impossibility to determine accurately

agents preferences within the analyzed social context.

These limits result evident when plannings are carried out or when a collective decision is in general

taken - such as taxation - because its difficult to make the "economic calculation" without knowing

individual preferences.

If in Praxeology and economics the impossibility to determine and manipulating directly people "Value

judgment" is a major limit, in Psychohistory there is an imaginary overcome of this problem.

In Asimovs universe there are in fact characters that are capable not only of "perceiving" and "classi-

fying" human emotions, but also to alter them.

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4.2 Methodological Dualism consequences 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

This is a functional opportunity which the novelist includes as an advantage in Psychohistory just as it

would be in economics as it allows to know and manipulate a given information exactly as it is done

with other economic variables.

Hari Seldon realizes that his adopted son and her granddaughter are gifted with such a capacity and

assumes that there are other people who can identify "Value Judgments" of human beings.

Asimov gives an explanation more or less likely to happen regarding this extraordinary power.

During the narration it is exposed that such a "sense" was innate in every men in the dawn of time but

after word and verbal language development human potential in catching what other think atrophies

(but it is still preserved as a unexpressed ability).

Second Foundation members recovered this lost ability and communicate in fact among themselves

not through natural language but perceiving what every speaker want actually transmits without the

intermediation of an elaborated language.

I dont think Asimov creativity from this point of view should be liquidated as a pure a simple, besides

totally abstract, fantasy exercise.

Studies on our brain potentials are considered from the major experts in the field at a primigenial status,

despite progresses which succeeded in the last few decades; a lapidary and effective quotation regarding

the possible and unimaginable future development of these frontier of scientific exploration may be the

one expressed by Marcel Dust, D.O. Hebb University Professor of Psychology, from Carnegie Mellon

University of Pittsburgh, who doesnt hesitate to state moreover that:

..in the next future we will be able to "tweet" thoughts...14

Therefore the "prophetic" thought of the science - fiction author in imagining the discover of this new

human ability allows Seldon to create a "Second Foundation" in addition to the first, main protagonist

of the trilogy.

If the "First Foundation" was populated by holders of natural sciences knowledge, the "Second Foun-

dation" was created only by people featured with such extraordinary power.

The location of the planet intended to host the First Foundation was supposed to be known to the rest
14 This quotation is taken by the film "Lo and behold" [2016] by Werner Herzog.

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4.3 Methodological Individualism 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

Galaxy and its inhabitants were given the task to broadcast among all human race the knowledge in

the technical field in order to reduce the dark period post empire.

Second Foundation would have instead worked in incognito and would have been the real holder of the

responsibility of "Seldon project", namely the shortening of the centuries of anarchy tentative.

Going forward in the story it is discovered that the Second Foundation has always worked in secret by

changing the behavior of some humans to order the course of history as Seldon had conjectured.

We can then hazard a parallelism: that just like economics forecasts the predictions of Psychohistory

would be impossible without people able to manipulate in a direct way "preferences" of agents and

managing in this way to give a direction to the development of history in order to let it coincide with

the forecast.

In this sense we can say that a schedule rather than a forecast was actually hypothesized and imple-

mented, assumed that members of the Second Foundation were able to "affect" people "preferences":

but if theoretically those members would have only been able to know those "preferences", surely they

would have been able to predict a part of the course of history, as it indeed happens during Asimovs

narration.

4.3 Methodological Individualism

In the previous paragraphs some common methodological aspects of Praxeology and Psychohistory have

been highlighted and I will now explain some substantial differences in their conceptual establishment.

I will start by recalling some observations of Von Mises regardind to history and philosophy of history.

The Austrian determined the distinction between social and natural world and differentiated among

human judgments between "Value" and "Technical" judgments establishing in this way his epistemo-

logical assumptions and justifying his adoption of a dual method.

Von Mises then proceed his studying criticizing the collectivist and organicist approach in philosophy

of history.

The creator of Praxeology, indeed, considers assigning to groups of individuals outcomes that must be

necessarily linked exclusively to a single agent methodologically wrong and misleading in results.

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4.4 Psychohistory Justifications 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

Referring to groups such as "civilizations" or "sovereign states" to retrace the evolution of history

will never be a correct approach because, as Mises assumed, only individuals are the ones who have

ideas and who choose; only individuals are able to have preferences and act after determining value

judgments; only individuals judge and act: this is the essence of methodological individualism.

For this reason Von Mises states that every historian should start from the assumption that "...there is

nothing in history beyond people ideas and objects they pursue, motivated by these ideas...".

According to Von Mises "civilizations" are exclusively the product of a multiplicity of actions done by

individuals and born from their preferences, it is with this perspective that historians must interpret

historical facts, not by considering collective entities as being endowed with the ability to act.

The historian must therefore find out which were the "Value judgments" of people who acted and

whose actions led to a particular movement of history in one direction rather than in another.

It was far from Von Mises intention arguing that these concepts imply the possibility that an individual

always have the power of radically changing the course of history with a single action, he just suggests

that any historical event is nothing more than the result of the actions of all the single individuals within

the social context.

Von Mises stresses therefore that "..ideas are the latest data of historical research.." and that "...ev-

erything that can be said about ideas is that these have been formulated by someone".

4.4 Psychohistory Justifications

I will proceed through Psychohistory analysis and discuss a fundamental assumption made by Asimov

keeping in mind Von Mises concept of methodological individualism, assumption which he introduces

in "Forward the Foundation"15 and which I have not mentioned yet.

In the dialogue between Hari Seldon and the Emperor, which I mentioned, we have found a passage in

which the impossibility to make a prediction in social sciences is discussed.

Asimov was able to go round this impossibility by introducing an actually plausible condition which

existence could make possible to achieve satisfactory results: that the population of the analyzed social

context is enormously large. This assumption allows Asimov to conclude that the forecast will have an

enormously greater chance of fulfillment if the aggregate effects produced by populations are considered,
15 Isaac Asimov, "Fondazione anno Zero", Mondadori 1993 [original "Forward the Foundation", 1993]

13
4.4 Psychohistory Justifications 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

eliminating this way the possibility of a single agent to bring imbalance and chaos.

Asimov concludes through the character of Hari Seldon that with an enormously large population actions

and behaviors "distant" from those of the average of individuals are negligible, therefore macroscopic

and collective trends can be observed with an inexistent error margin.

This conclusion goes clearly into collision with Von Mises methodological individualism, who argued

that this kind of approaches had no justification and led to results of dubious reliability.

Inside the novel context such a condition was obviously not out of the ordinary. In the far future where

the story takes place people are distributed across thousands of planets and solar systems, which allows

to assume that the population will actually be abundant, even enormous. To quote Asimov, in "Second

Foundation"16 : "The individual acts unpredictably, but Seldon found that the reactions of the masses

could be studied by statistical methods: the greater was the human agglomeration, the more accurate

forecasts were. And the mass of humanity on which Seldon based was even the entire population of

the Galaxy".

In "Foundation and Empire"17 , there is a twist: "Seldon project" forecasts the protagonist of the cycle

had calculated do not realize due the intervention of a single individual.

A character introduced in the second novel of the main trilogy called "The Mule" has the power I

already described that enables him to know and condition human emotions.

In a context in which the planet of Foundation is strong thanks to Hari Seldon forecasts - which stated

that that the planet and his function would have always been flourishing - the Mule becomes his first

conqueror against all prognostics.

Foundation scholars are dumbfounded, they thought that Hari Seldon had not considered the possibility

that an individual of this type existed.

The Mule is the character who breaks the balance that should have been maintained given the size

of the population: if we adopt Von Mises point of view he represents a single individual whose ideas,

whose "Value judgments", could not have been decisive.

At this point it would be necessary to state along with Von Mises that the intrusion of the Mule in

"Seldon project" is something that happens constantly in our common life and it is this possibility that
16 Isaac Asimov, "Laltra Faccia della Spirale", Mondadori 1953 [original "Second Foundation", 1953]
17 Isaac Asimov, "Il Crollo della Galassia Centrale", Mondadori 1952 [original "Foundation and Empire", 1952]

14
4.5 Second Foundation 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

makes a forecast made by the method of methodological collectivism a prevision with little chance of

realization.

Von Mises would have however considered Psychohistory wrong despite the intervention of the Mule.

The justification according to which chaotic behavior and predictability in social contexts decreases as

the population is higher is a justification Von Mises would consider irrelevant.

According to Praxeology the reason for which methodological individualism is the only way is not the

supposed chaos due to the unpredictable actions of individuals, but the simple truth that it is not

possible to properly assign to a group of individuals an "intention".

In previous pages we have observed that it was the discovery of Seldon regarding the existence of this

particular type of individuals, as the Mule is, to allow him to develop Psychohistory.

In fact at this point of the narration the "Second Foundation" takes over.

4.5 Second Foundation

Deducing Psychohistory characteristics by interpreting outcomes which take place during the narrative

in which the Mule and the Second Foundation are involved is a key step to outline the epistemological

status of Asimov "science".

Many characters interpret the advent of the Mule as something Hari Seldon had not taken into account:

as we have already said Psychohistory was based on population trends and not on individuals actions.

The possibility that a single agent would have changed the course of history, just as the Mule does, is

clearly a deviation from the "Seldon project", namely the future of the Galaxy that the character had

hoped to become true thanks to "trends" inspired by the two Foundations.

During a conversation between the Mule and a Second Foundation agent in the first part of "Second

Foundation" the latter says: "...he [Hari Seldon] created two foundations relying on Psychohistory laws,

but who better than him knew that these laws were relative? His creations had no final nature: this

fact is typical of a mindset in decline, his was an evolving mechanism. [...] We are the custodians of

Seldon Project, only us"18 .

We can infer from this statement that the role of Second Foundation in "Seldon project" and in his

prediction of the future is fundamental.

18 Isaac Asimov, "Laltra Faccia della Spirale", Mondadori 1953 [original, "Second Foundation", 1953]

15
4.5 Second Foundation 4 THE PREVISION OF THE FUTURE

Seldon would have never been able to make such a long-term forecasting and knew that processing data

regarding aggregate trends would have never been enough during his life, he knew that a continuous

update was necessary.

Hari Seldon understood that he could complete his plan only after discovering the existence of charac-

ters like the Mule, which had the power to update and develop his forecast.

Asimov introduction of this information brings Psychohistory on a ground actually closer to us, more

walkable: as stated in the first pages of "Prelude to Foundation" the forecast is theoretically possible

but very complicated in its realization.

Hari Seldon just needed after his death persons who had the ability to act in order to change the course

of history, exactly as the Mule did.

Actually, "Seldon project" was not a thousand-year forecast, but just a contingent action plan, a goal

that Second Foundation members would have tried to achieve given the updating of the framework

inside which they would have operated and that Seldon could not have foreseen.

We may conclude after these considerations that if in the beginning of the story it seems that Psy-

chohistory method is the one of collectivism, nevertheless, during the novel we find out instead that

the single individual has a fundamental importance in human history development.

His ideas, his "Value judgments", as Von Mises called them, have a major role during the narrative

development of the "Story" of the science fiction universe Asimov invented.

We can therefore say that if any "historian" would follow the historical analysis method proposed by

Von Mises, given Praxeology assumptions, he would actually perform the best analysis that he could

lead just by seeking "Value judgments"; the ones that in Asimov creation constitute foundation cycle

characters "ideas": therefore the creation by Hari Seldon and the first group of Psychohistorians of the

firsts two foundations, the Mule willingness to conquer the Galaxy thank to his power, the successful

attempt by Second Foundation agents to eliminate the dictatorial Mule and free the First Foundation

by his control.

Even during the story that we have here at times reported ideas of individuals along with relations and

clashes with other ideas have actually led to the development of the novel and it is for this reason

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 5 IMPLICATIONS IN ECONOMICS

that "Psychohistory" - as Seldon and Second Foundation actions have proved - was not nothing but a

contingent and finite attempt, partly unsuccessful, to make predictions in social sciences, starting from

a certain and limited context.

The expressiveness and clarity with which Asimov describes Mule actions and the fact that he managed

to shake across the galaxy to stop him is an indication of the fact that probably the author believed

that individual agents ideas were the only engines from which historical development departed.

5 Implications in Economics

We might now wonder what we could say about economics if it would be used in the science fiction

framework described by Asimov.

Hence we must ask - provided to be aware of the fact that this is just a speculative exercise, considering

Foundation tale as a story that would only and exactly be as reported by his author - what potential

would economics hides in that context if it would be carried nowadays and what developments could this

science has if it could take into account assumptions that are now inconceivable, such as an enormously

larger population than the earth have or the existence of individuals as the Mule is.

5.1 Econometrics and Forecasting

The problem of statistical inference will of course proposes as it is in the econometrics branch.

If "Psychohistory" starts from the assumption that an exorbitant population would succeed in reducing

the influence of individuals on the aggregate development of events still this would not manage to solve

the problem of the universality of obtained results.

Econometricians projected toward the science fiction Asimovs universe in particular would never be

able to predict, for example, the precise outcome of any war as instead happens in the book.

Also having on their side an enormous dataset from which by the most complex statistics econometri-

cians would be able to calculate that the foreseen outcome is found in 100% of the cases, this will still

be unable to justify the view for which that outcome will also takes place in the future.

Psychohistory minimum considers the fact that the practice of finding and establishing a standard

trend, whether it is deduced by thousand or hundred thousand data samples, leaves however a problem

of "resistance" of that trend which is not solved.

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5.1 Econometrics and Forecasting 5 IMPLICATIONS IN ECONOMICS

There is no justification in stating that by an enormously greater number of data a "safer" truth is

found .

Asimov surely knew the controversy about statistical inference and in many circumstances he makes

his characters says that forecasts are not absolutely certain but they realize with a certain probability.

The axiom of Psychohistory about the population is not properly an epistemological feature of Asi-

movs science but simply recalls the observation, already made during the real human thought history

by many social scientists, according to which having an important number of data allows you to make

some assumptions about the distribution the latter are likely to follow and allows to make predictions

with a greater margin of realizability.

If economics would be used in a framework such as the foundation cycle this connotation of Psychohis-

tory would not even allow it to reach predictions featured with absolute certainty of realization.

Von Mises theoretical result is "robust" to the variation of the analyzed sample, because it is not de-

pendent on the number of analyzed data but from a human beings intrinsic condition.

We conclude from these observations that the assumption of an enormous population is not the pecu-

liarity of Psychohistory which would upgrade social sciences possibilities of forecasting, even if through

the book it is often invoked as a fundamental condition in order that Psychohistorical practice would

make sense to be carried out.

I will now evaluate the effect the second component of Asimov science fiction universe would have

on the discipline of econometrics. The existence of people like the aforementioned Mule able to learn

about emotions, "preferences", as they are called in economics, of human beings and condition them

would make the "Seldon project" possible .

Substantially individuals like the Mule can understand which are the "laws" that govern actions of every

single man and then be able to predict how the observed human will behave.

This is obviously a condition that nowadays men can not possibly reach: it is true that, as already

mentioned, in neuroscience and in behavioral economics studies and experiments are increasingly pro-

jected to achievements of unimaginable results, but we are still long way to perceive human emotions

and condition them in some way.

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 6 CONCLUSIONS

The lack of information about individuals preferences would not only change the precision of the eco-

nomic forecast, but it would change the method through it is conducted.

Econometrics often attempts to "pick up" individual preferences through historical data in order to use

these results to make predictions of different kind.

The possibility that some people would even only be able to know others preferences, without being

able to modify them, would allow to make reliable predictions about human action: Von Mises axiom of

unknowableness of "Value judgments" falls, preferences become a certain data, cognizable and usable

to make predictions about the future.

In short from the point of view of the general equilibrium theory mentioned at the beginning of this

study the equilibrium calculation given an initial framework passes from being a theoretical calculation

to be a concrete possibility.

As we know that a stone will fall if subjected to gravity we are able to predict that a given individual

will buy one product rather than another, because we know his preferences.

Reporting our findings to Von Mises science, Praxeology, we can say that methodological individualism

remains the only way to sensibly evaluate human action.

Even methodological dualism is "robust" to the removal of the assumption according to which "Value

judgments" can not be known, since these remain however changing over time, which makes economic

forecast based on historical statistics still an unstable and precarious result. In particular, short - run

predictions wold be possible, if individual preferences are known, but long - run forecasts would still be

unstable and subjected to a margin of fail.

6 Conclusions

The tentative of eliminating any interference of the individual in the development of history seems to

bring Psychohistory to adopt the methodological collectivism approach, but interpreting the develop-

ment of events we can conclude that the individual has, in determining the future Psychohistory aims

to predict, key significance, also because of the fact that there are agents with literally superhuman

features, capable of upsetting the unraveling of the story.

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 6 CONCLUSIONS

If the theory of Praxeology by Von Mises and its consequences on the possibility of economic forecasting

are not affected in the sections where he suggests the epistemological assumption of methodological

individualism in social sciences, the possibility that there are instruments and agents able to know

preferences of each agent results as a possibility that the Austrian could not consider.

Hence it is not interesting to assess the development that economic forecasts could have in a context

where the population is substantially greater because that could just provide more historical data but

would not universalize the obtained results in order to use them to figure out what will happen in the

future.

On the contrary it is interesting to think about the chances that would open for economic calculation

if it were possible to know and modify individuals preferences, as if they were a given as any data is, as

well as some of Asimov characters are able to do.

The prediction of aggregate events would still have its limits, while the deduction of short-run equilibrium

conditions in frameworks where it is possible to learn about each individual preferences would definitely

be a step forward in economic calculation perspective.

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REFERENCES REFERENCES

References

[1] Ludwig Von Mises, "Teoria e Storia", Rubbettino 2009 [original, "Theory and History", 1957]

[2] Ludwig Von Mises, "Human Action", Ludwig Von Mises Institute 1998 [original 1949]

[3] Isaac Asimov, "Io, Robot", Mondadori 2004 [original, "I, Robot", 1950]

[4] Isaac Asimov, "I robot dellalba", Mondadori 1983 [original, "The Robots of Dawn", 1983]

[5] Isaac Asimov, "I robot dellimpero", Mondadori 1985 [original, "Robots and Empire", 1985]

[6] Isaac Asimov, "Preludio alla Fondazione", Mondadori 1989 [original, "Prelude to Foundation",

1998]

[7] Isaac Asimov, "Fondazione anno Zero", Mondadori 1993 [original, "Forward the Foundation",

1993]

[8] Isaac Asimov, "Cronache della Galassia", Mondadori 1951 [original, "Foundation", 1951]

[9] Isaac Asimov, "Il Crollo della Galassia Centrale", Mondadori 1952 [original, "Foundation and

Empire", 1952]

[10] Isaac Asimov, "Laltra Faccia della Spirale", Mondadori 1953 [original, "Second Foundation",

1953]

[11] Werner Herzog, "Lo and Behold", 2016

[12] Paul Krugman, "Incidents from my career", taken by "The unofficial Paul krugman archive" at

this link: [http://www.pkarchive.org/personal/incidents.html]

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CONTENTS CONTENTS

Contents

1 Praxeology 2

2 Psychohistory 3

2.1 The Robot Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2.2 The Foundation Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

3 Economics 5

4 The prevision of the Future 7

4.1 The axioms of Praxeology and Psychohistory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

4.2 Methodological Dualism consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

4.3 Methodological Individualism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

4.4 Psychohistory Justifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

4.5 Second Foundation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

5 Implications in Economics 17

5.1 Econometrics and Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

6 Conclusions 19

22