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P EO P LE REGIONS BUILT ENV IRO N M EN T S N A T URE M A RKET S B US I N ES S E N E R GY

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Dilemmas Sustainability defines a new citizenry


As personal health becomes increasingly linked to community
health, a new sustainable citizen will replace the so-called
green consumer. Eco-friendly, low-impact, local and organic
Decentralized authorities compete for voice and influence
A maelstrom of voices will vie for influence, control and
power, under conditions where knowledge and technologies
are constantly changing. Surveillance and detection tools
Rise of the eco-driven city-states
As urban and regional political leaders seek decentralized
approaches to sustainability, look for mega-cities and collec-
tions of leading-edge eco-cities populated by the creative class
Eco-markets face challenges
Using the marketplace to manage ecosystem disturbances,
many states, regions and countries will experiment with
eco-trading exchanges for carbon, water pollution and air
The intersection of economics and ecoscience creates
chaos before clarity
The intersection of ecoscience and economics manifests
Financial reform will tackle intangibles
The next decade is likely to see a host of financial reforms in
response to natural and social crises that will create volatility in
the financial community. Some will be innovations that extend
Reinsurers as regulators
Reinsurance companies, which provide insurance to tradi-
tional insurance companies, pay extremely close attention
to emerging risks that might end up causing catastrophic
in the growing market presence of environmental products
will be seen as part of a healthy lifestyle. Sustainable citizens can force transparency and accountability but can also to join climate change abatement efforts as semi-autonomous pollution. These exchanges will be plagued by uncertainties and services, but also as a new way of understanding value. existing financial practice such as microfinance or Islamic events. The top two global reinsurance companiesMunich
will participate in community-improvement efforts to secure enable fabricated evidence and spread misinformation. units. Their size and complexity may demand customized and in how to value ecosystem serviceshow much is one acre Ecosystem valuation describes the importance of the natural finance, but more will use multiple capitalsintellectual, social Re and Swiss Restarted taking climate change seriously
Increasingly, we are moving from a world of their own health and make their values heard through their Communities and consumers will challenge the notion of locally-overseen strategies. Some will distinguish themselves as of carbon-sequestering forest really worth?as well as back- and naturalto reduce the risk associated with uncertainty in over a decade ago, and have begun to charge higher rates to
world using the language of costs and benefits, forcing govern-
problemswhich demand speed, analysis and purchases, daily behavior, online activity and involvement in externalities and companies will need to rethink their leading eco-cities, pioneering green strategies, boasting cleaner lash from emerging economies who question the exchange ments and businesses to look at the broader ecological picture. the environment. These will be linked to growing corporate social insurance companies that cover areas most at risk of global
local community issues. Tools and practices will emerge to relationships with their stakeholders. Many will look to state water and air and accumulating the social and intellectual rates and the limits on their own development. The result? These valuations are controversial: they are often ambiguous, responsibility requirements and increasing demands for transpar- warming-related disasters, such as coastal developments in
elimination of uncertainty to solveto a world support sustainability lifestylescarbon footprint calcula- authorities to adjudicate these issueswhether through capital that sustainability innovations attract. Eco-markets may be a short-lived phenomenon. Nonetheless, with conflicting metrics, and environmentalists and economists ency across both corporations and communities. hurricane-prone regions. These higher rates get passed along
tors, sustainability coaches, personal carbon credits and command-and-control legislation, new market and tax valuation efforts will exert pressure on companies and com- alike have raised important questions about their ethics and to consumers, or sometimes even force insurance companies
of dilemmaswhich demand patience, sense- online forums for personal sustainability strategies. Real-time incentives or overseeing natural resource damage claims Extreme urbanization merce to acknowledge environmental services, and insurance efficacy. For example, critics of cap-and-trade schemes charge A score of scorecards to leave certain areas.
monitoring of environmental goods and services flows at the even as the state struggles to find its role in this volatile climate. and reinsurance industries may force the issue.
making and an engagement with uncertainty. For the first time in history, the majority of the population that these carbon indulgences create pollution hotzones and External scrutiny and evaluation will take diverse forms and
household, community and regional level is anticipated within will be urban, not rural, and most of these urban environ- invite market corruption. Moreover, this is a field in fluxnew functions, but one thing most methods will do is become pub- Do-it-yourself infrastructures create opportunities and gaps
Dilemmas span disciplines and frustrate attempts the decade. Geo-politics adopts eco-politics ments will be in developing countries. Slums and squatter Eco-management practices and regulations proliferate scientific discoveries could rapidly change the rules for up-and- lic. The field of corporate responsibility ratings will range from As lightweight infrastructure components for communications,
Anxieties about climate change, vulnerable natural resources, communities will grow in number and size. Lacking traditional As the effects of climate change mount, both communities coming services like carbon offsets and sequestration. self-organized, bottom-up ratings by networks of consumers water, power and transportation diffuse in the developing
to craft elegant and final solutions. Dilemmas
require a different orientation, decision process
Extreme longevity shifts perceptions of risk and opportunity
Breakthrough bioscience holds out the possibility of much
longer lifespans in the next few decades. In the meantime,
and protected private resources will carve out a new landscape
of geo-eco-politics. Environmental impacts ignore national
borders, which will encourage collaborative approaches but will
resource-and care-delivery infrastructures, these urban wilder-
nesses will foster innovation. Mobile phones will enable new
forms of collaboration. Distributed urban users will pioneer
and corporations will step up efforts to manage the ecosys-
tem more effectively, focusing on ecosystem services such
as carbon sequestration and water quality management to
Eco-brands and offerings expand markets
and small business (such as the World Index for Social and
Environmental Responsibility and BuyBlue.org) to topdown,
designed evaluation schemes by formal institutions like GEMI,
world, a variety of strategies will emerge for local, small-scale
implementationfrom regenerative commerce strategies that
emphasize new commons, to private investment that looks
Map of
Future Forces
As consumers express eco-friendly preferences through their
and set of skills. many cultural analysts note that populations are effectively also fuel tensions. Perpetrators of environmental abuse do not sustainable-out-of-necessity business, development and living more intangible services, such as the value of view-scapes. purchases, companies will find increasing opportunities to Dow Jones and the Financial Times. Metrics for intangibles and more like traditional chambers of commerce. Both will create
growing younger, as social and economic aspects of midlife necessarily feel the effects of their actions, as airstreams carry strategies. Look for new market opportunities in marginalized They will look to science to provide precise measures and create eco-brands, identify market niches and build their alternative indicators like employee wellness, civic participation opportunities for local and global entrepreneurs, but will also

Affecting
are extended and even childhood lasts longer: young adults air pollution miles away, disrupted eco-systems cripple neigh- and bottom-of-the-pyramid populations. targets, but they will also conform to topdown regulation as eco-friendly reputations. Some companies already label their and carbon footprint per worker will find their way into rating leave gaps that will not only deny access to some but also
are getting married later, having children later and adopting boring eco-systems and IP theft and non-cooperation under- states set standards for everything from renewable fuels to products with the environmental impact of their production. schemes. require adaptable strategies by those who want to use the
the material symbols of adulthood, such as purchasing homes, mine certain strategies. Environmental justice will acquire a Increasing vulnerability will drive climate refugees and personal carbon emission limits. Consumers, to maintain freedom to manage their own envi- infrastructures for their own enterprises.
Characteristics of modern strategic dilemmas
Unsolvable
later. While the social and political effects of engineered
longevity may not show up for decades, the expectation of
longer lifespans may fundamentally change the way people
global character, and international diplomacy will be forced
to manage reparations and environmental damage lawsuits. It
is possible that some countries will feel threatened enough to
reshape migration
Close to 40% of the human population lives near coasts, Fragmented state practices
As climate change continues to alter ecosystems and spur
ronmental footprints, will value information over promises.
However, companies will face the dilemma of identifying the
most relevant information (carbon footprint, local-community
Green is green, toward value-creation
As companies navigate the storm of pressure from various voic-
esconsumers, regulators, partner and rival companies, empow-
Energy infrastructure (in)security
Energy will be reframed in a variety of ways, as different
Sustainability
and rises in sea levels could devastate local and global
Complex and often messy view the future and, in particular, risk. protect resources and enforce measures violently. changes in economic and political practices, some states impact, equitable practices), calculating this information ered communities, employees, advocacy groupsthey must bal- parties recognize their inevitable dependence (and interde-
economies. Natural disasters could cause mass migrations,
disrupting neighboring countries, who could respond will find resistance more profitable and attractive. Some (using what methods?) and finding palatable ways to present ance their responsibility to their shareholders and pursue profits. pendence) on the functioning of numerous overlaid energy
Threatening Links between environment and health grow Eco-tools build on bottomup context awareness it. Meanwhile, the sustainability and zero-impact craze may
aggressively and violently. Many of the vulnerable areas have might benefit from climate change: growing seasons may Successful companies will discover points of synergy, where systemsfuel pipelines, electric grids, etc. Some states will
Enigmatic and confusing Public views of health are moving away from the disease- New scientific and social practicesusing sensor networks, disadvantaged communities, which lack the resources to lengthen, conditions may enable more productive practices fuel a backlash, as some people see environmentally damag- sustainable, eco-friendly and equitable practices create tangible see energy as an economic and political weapon of coercion,
centered biomedical model toward a more ecological view. bottomup environmental monitoring, collaborative pollution and formerly inaccessible regions may open. Some, espe- ing products and practices as elite, luxurious or just downright value. Simple revisions in operations to improve energy efficiency domestically and internationally. However, insurgent groups Welcome to the 2007-2017 Map of Future Forces Affecting
properly safeguard against these hazards.
Two or more puzzling choicesand decisions are still required This evolving perspective is supported by scientific evidence mapping and nested environmental modelswill create a cially in the developing world, will simply disregard pressure more comfortable. can yield immense energy savings in the long run. Protecting and other non-state actorscalled global guerillas in John Sustainability prepared for the Senior Advisory Council (SAC) of
that where and how people live their lives can have as great an rapidly growing awareness of our environment. This green Digital natives define the next generation of civic for green development, preferring rapid industrialization in and investing in employees can increase productivity and reduce Robb's book Brave New Warwill see energy disruption as the Global Environmental Management Initiative (GEMI) by the
One of the purposes of this map is to help you identify your impact on health as genetics, health maintenance and medical panopticon may lead to a kind of planetary mark-up language the race to strengthen economies and infrastructure, even Smart networking enables new activism turnover rate. These strategies will become more sophisticated, an effective strategy for crippling states. Using technologies, Institute for the Future (IFTF).
engagement
dilemmas. Some of the signals may seem incongruous, even interventions. A language of eco-health literacy will emerge over not unlike the Webs XML, which will facilitate global com- engaging in greenmailoffering to trade compliance for Smart networking practices, personal empowerment and measurable and mainstream. Companies who take initiative to innovations in weaponry, IEDs, online networks, crime and
the next decade to frame health concerns in these new terms. munication about the state of the planet. Scrutiny of products, As youth media literacy emerges, watch for young people to massive subsidies or economic favors. Meanwhile, many adopt and innovate these reforms will earn respect and quiet criti- eco-terrorism, they will target centralized energy grids, which, This custom map of the future is based on the latest Ten-Year
contradictory, but that is because dilemmas often seem like abundant connectivity will stir a whirlwind of new activism,
chemicals and corporate behavior will come from the top down apply media skills to social, political and environmental issues. states will also pilot green development tools and practices. cismas long as companies remain honest and transparent. when they fail, fail catastrophically. Many will find that main-
complex, no-win situations. often challenging traditional roles, responsibilities and Forecast by IFTF, an independent nonprofit think tank in Silicon
Polarizing extremes and the bottom up, as centralized and distributed parties take They will podcast, blog, tag, rate and review companies, share Some may display a disregard for international IP rights, taining energy as a commonssanctioned from the top down,
realms of influence. Increasing lightweight venture funding Valley. IFTF has a 39-year track record of successful forecasting
information and connect online to collaborate. Their evolving
Though many will rally around common causes and decide advantage of surveillance tools. pitting them against major companies and other countries, and social entrepreneurship will produce creative synergies, Employees as a driver of corporate sustainability monitored from the bottom up and distributed in a network
As you tell your stories from the map, use the signals and focal literacy could catalyze new forms of civic action as networked and is one of the few research organizations ever to outlive its own
to collaborate, anxieties about pollution, climate change while others find themselves used as testing grounds for especially in urban slums. Some shareholders will pressure As health care continues to be a major cost to employers, fashionwill render systems more resilient to these shocks.
points to draw out dilemmas. What signals seem to conflict Think local, act global publics, commons-based property regimes and emergent new treatment and clean-up processes. The strength of these networks as opposed to hierarchies forecasts. Twenty years ago, the term sustainability was virtually
and health will solidify strongly-advocated opinions. In both companies to incorporate sustainable practices, and some it will be treated as a commonsa shared resource that is
with each other? What combinations present self-organization bypass traditional government with ad-hoc may inspire other restructuring of crucial economic, social, unknown in business circles; environmentalism was synonymous
the developed and developing world, communities will The interconnections between global climate change and parties will become shareholders for the precise purpose of susceptible to depletion. While health and wellness become
interventions and distributed solutions.
multiple and competing options? use economic, social and political arsenals to protect their local ecological instability, between overall economic Collaborative science and open-source environmentalism doing so. Amplified by social networking technologies, the more directly linked to physical environment, work and the environmental and business resources. with government regulations and pollution; and, health was
positions and resources. Potential results range from sustainability and community economic health will spur Participatory digital media tools and connectivity will enable voices of stakeholders will louden and, connected together, physical workplace will become a focus for sustainable systems, another term for occupational safety. Today, all three of these
Open-source practices help diffuse sustainable building theyll be able to champion their own causes. Among these Immersive media helps reframe of energy strategies
Dilemmas will challenge and frustrate leaders, but they obstructionism, to counter-activism to out-and-out violence. increased localism. Some communities will bear the brunt bottomup mapping, monitoring and sharing of data, activities conditions and practices. Watch for business services based concepts have evolved broader and more complex definitions and
of economic and environmental fluctuationspollution The energy required to maintain commercial and residential and conditions related to the environment. The emergence of evolving efforts lies regenerative commerce, which sits at the on FairSource practices and European models of work Understanding the long-term impacts and day-to-day realities
will also present opportunities for deep inspiration, creative they have moved from the margins to the center of business activity.
Self-interest is aligned with collective good hot-zones created by cap-and-trade markets, disrupted buildings accounts for more greenhouse gas output than the universal protocols for field research will facilitate and accelerate intersection of intangibles and cooperative strategies. Coined shaping those in the United States. of energy choices will play a key role in developing successful
innovation and win-win strategies. global transportation network. Building and urban develop-
A fundamental principle of cooperative strategy is to link agricultural seasons, non-potable waterand these commu- these efforts. These networks will integrate local knowledge and by Jon Ramer, the term regenerative commerce refers to val- strategies. Immersive experiences can provide consumers and
ment practices are set to experience innovation around Making sense of sustainability, as various stakeholders define it,
personal self-interest to the good of the larger community. As nities will protect themselves in surprising ways. Meanwhile, expertise with professional insight, creating webs of population- ues-based commerce that integrates social networks and their Consumer collectives organize around low-impact commerce business decision-makers with concrete experiences in living
energy efficiency, water use, information transparency and values with transactional networks to retain and grow local and incorporating it as a source of long-term business value is a
new technologies and a new sociability make this link more efforts to secure the stability of local and regional ecologies based science and innovation and informed activism. As local Collective purchasing by groups of Chinese consumers online the future consequences of present day energy decisions.
Characteristics of effective dilemma obvious across many domains from health and environment and to integrate these systems with each other and with health effects. Biomimicry, micro-energy production and self-interests align with broader issues, these efforts will contrib- wealth. In this mix, expect labor to enter the forefront provides lessons for establishing new relationships between
critical challenge for the next generation of business and specifi-
zero footprint designs will become watchwords. Watch for of sustainability debates. cally for business leaders in environment, health and safety (EHS).
to wealth generation, security and even entertainment, expect macro-climates, will be increasingly important. ute to open-source environmental strategies and policy making. Alternative energy up, demand down
management a proliferation of new commons experiments and innovative
do-it-yourself (DIY) home improvement mobs and architec- consumers, retailers and manufacturers. Collectives will
However, it is not always clear as to how companies can go about
include community- and neighborhood-based buying groups, as Renewable, non-fossil fuel energy sources are beginning to
tural design knowledge commons to change home building. Design-based manufacturing foments a factory revolution
Strategic sense making beyond operational problem solving solutions to old commons problems. As understanding of these Higher (by)product standards Nature becomes the guide to design well as formally organized corporate employee buying clubs. As see a renaissance, and are likely to become a much greater integrating sustainability into their strategic thinking. Will today's
resources matures, people will realize that different kinds of Augmented detection capabilities and pressure for monitor- Nature-based models are becoming important in the design As rapid fabrication technologies like 3D inkjet printers and personal sustainability practices and values permeate house- part of the global energy footprint in the near future. Familiar cutting-edge environmental measures be seen as greenwashing in
Built environments get smart laser sintering move from prototyping to production, they will
Engagement with complexity resources will require different management and protection ing and regulation will combine to intensify restrictions on of products and control systems. Biomimetic practices allow holds and the workplace, look for these groups to drive market power technologies like wind and solar will see increased
RFID, tags, embedded sensors and ubiquitous commu- five years? How do you account for sustainability projects that have
strategies. In Capitalism 3.0: A Guide to Reclaiming the production, manufacturing and servicing. As more links designers to take advantage of millions of years of evolution likely trigger a transformation in manufacturing. They will make growth for low-impact, green products and services. cost benefits from material and manufacturing technology
Uncoupling winning from the need for a solution Commons, economist Peter Barnes argues for the creation of between environment and DNA are discovered, chemicals nication computing will help animate and empower built towards optimized structures, and will appear with greater factories more flexible, short-run and responsive to rapidly advances, such as lightweight composites and organic-polymer no immediate payoff, but will yield significant benefits decades from
a commons sector of the economy to make up for the limits of environments. Products and places will bear user-generated shifting markets. More important, they may well unleash a vast now? Do sustainable companies tend to be more successful, or does
will receive greater institutional scrutiny and higher indi- frequency in the shapes of cars, buildings, even infrastructure. Natural systems redesign business interactions electronics. Less-well-known alternative technologies, such as
Learning through immersive experiences, scenarios and the private and government (public) sector when it comes to information, which will be accessible through sensing wave of design innovation and ultimately move some forms of
vidual expectations. The entire life-cycle of products will Biological models will take on increased importance in the In addition to serving as inspiration for designing new products hydrokinetic energy and solar-thermal energy, will also attract sustainability change the very notion of success?
rapid prototyping preserving natural capital and the rights of future generations. be examined, from inception to eventual degradationfrom devices and be capable of gathering information. Embedded management of resources, ecosystems and traffic flow. The manufacturing to the desktop, where peer-to-peer exchanges increasing attention from investors and governments looking
and functional services, natural systems offer important
His proposed twin engines of growth-corporate profit maximiza- cradle to graveyard. However, outputs that cannot be used or micro- and nano-electronics make it possible for previously changing global climate may also force construction and of design are as common as music swapping is today. New for wild-card breakthroughs. Meanwhile, ongoing innovation This map is a strategic tool that will help organizations navigate
Flexible, decentralized, empowered networks within a lessons in organizational processes ranging from team process
tion and commons wealth creation-would allow for a more reusedi.e. those in the graveyardwill incur penalties, dumb materials to sense usage and activity patterns, oversight of designer ecosystems in order to maintain important production technologies and processes may drive demand for in energy efficiency has radical benefits over time. With small the complexity of sustainability. Our goal is to elevate the strategic
to collective intelligence and collaborative problem solving.
structure of strategic intent prosperous, secure and sustainable future. and companies will be asked by regulators and consumers and communicate this information to other systems. The services despite a changing environment. various wastes as base production material, which will open annual boosts in efficiency, by 2100 ten billion can live as well
Beginning with experiments in bioteaming, companies will use conversation around EHS issues and develop more organizational
alike to find valuable uses for all products and by-products. environmental uses are significant, ranging from finer new markets and change the rules of waste regulation. as the top billion today, while using less power.
Acceptance of uncertainty with intuition as a valid natural models, from cellular communication to swarms and adaptability to respond to emerging challenges.
Cradle-to-cradle will be a commonplace demand. control of energy consumption to measurement and potential
flocking, to understand more emergent forms of collaboration.
contributor to clarity mitigation of sick building syndrome.
2007-2017
How to Use
P EO P LE REGIONS BUILT ENV IRO N M EN T S N A T URE M A RKET S B US I N ES S E N E R GY
KEY DRIVING FORCES
A n Im perati ve f o r Lo o k ing Lo ng Gets Younger
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arena of responsibilities. can lead to more effective action in the present. You can use it

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depends on pollinators strategies as sensible ten liters of Solar walls and roofs
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become key measures that organizationsand society as a Global education reframed business practice. non-potable environment, health and sustainability in a matrix format. Six rows,
intensify, extreme positions and n Trees store carbon and informed by science to be labels Comple Source: P&G Water capture and
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disabilitieswill grow in number and influence over the next ten challenged populations: the aged, Transforming carbon NG a s Pioneers for efficient low-impact living Environmental justice, self-governance and development and petro economies d ata f i lt e r
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Source: Institute for the Future


forecast. Track several of them across the map to
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the creation of the cultural fabric that defines who we are and how we purchase carbon offsets visible in place Wo World Index for Social media and open modeling

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bio-commons, these will provide new lessons in human accountability for shared P BioPlaneta Source: www.bioplaneta.com cooperatives Programs to support rg What are the next steps? The next step may simply to be to
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Source: Capitalism 3.0, Barnes, 2006
global, social and L insight into an initiative. Try not to leave the map without jot-
humanitarian crises ting down at least one action step.
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A New Mater ial Wo r l d g l Tr ls te ,F g oHacking
innov www.iftf.org | 124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
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Cell therapy
and biological design
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Options for alternative energy increase: at i o n Palo Alto, CA 94301 | 650.854.6322
m r e G r av e ya r d ar
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The human ability to engineer at the molecular level, whether Somatic gene therapy
Mo og m ent R 3D printers + computerized design ami Biofuels: saw grass, cellulose ethanol www.gemi.org | 1155 15th Street, NW, Suite 500
Sm Plantation Place o l Bioengineered fuel cells e
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New design and productions


Caloric restriction drugs As scale of detection o Micro- and nano-
Bi oT algae fuels cells Washington, DC 20005 I 202.296.7449
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through biological, chemical or electromechanical means, will trigger transformation of factories


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Cradle-to-cradle has a ventilation methods create demand for DIY molecular biology
and investigation grows engineered sensors and
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Organizationslike BioBricks, a dynamic protected Cellulose converting synthetic termites and manufacturing, and enable Beyond project for health, performance, Solar: organic polymer solar goods SR-1073 | 2007 Institute for the Future for Global
grow over the next decade, changing not only the way we manage smaller, chemical manufacturing standards processors make building system inspired waste as raw material Environmental Management Initiative. All rights reserved.
commons of enabling technologies in the life sciences rapid prototyping of eco-friendly management: fashion and fun
the world but actually transforming it to create new kinds of built Product waste taxes materials responsive to by human lungs Beetle-inspired fog collectors for desert water Nuclear: molten salt thorium Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
and product scrutiny products bio processes as
encourage open improvement and innovation users and environment nuclear power
environmentsand new ways of living in them. increases and intensifies Source: http://www.arup.com/facadeen- guidelines, models
Source: http://nanoarchitecture.net/article/?c=synthetic-biology gineering/project.cfm?pageid=1794. Nano: nano-boosted photovoltaics