Introduction

Stock market plays a very important role in the development of any economy. Mankiw (1999)
stated that If the stock market declines, we can easily predict the recession in coming period. It
is being said that the stock market development is an important factor towards the development
of the whole economy as it provides the method for encouraging the peoples for saving and
investing their funds into financial markets which ultimately contributes towards the economic
growth. Investing in the stock market is one of the best ways to grow your wealth and to take
opportunities from the booming economy rather than just keeping your wealth on one side.

As I have to invest my saving of Rs. 10 lacs so I have done some fundamental analysis of the
market to invest my money in equity market. For that purpose, I have analyzed the market of
Pakistan which shows tremendous growth in cement sector in 2016. In addition to this, it is
forecasted that food industry, banking industry, cement industry and oil and gas industry will be
doing well in 2017.

Based on this information, I analyze the financial statements of different companies of these
sectors and came up with certain companies who are doing good in their respective sectors. I also
tried to keep as many sectors as possible in order to avoid the risk and to diversify the portfolio.
So I add very few companies from other sectors as well whose companies have done well in
recent years and is forecasted to do so. In addition to this, I have analyzed some other sectors
which are not affected by the economic strength and are non-cyclical like pharmaceutical
companies.

According to the forecasted and past data, I have chosen the following sectors to invest in.

Pharmaceutical
Food industry
Cement industry
Banking industry
Fertilizers
Textiles
Oil and gas industry

Among all of these sectors, I have selected few companies who are doing well in their sectors
and proceed further with the trend analysis of the companies.
After the trend analysis of the companies, I came up with the following companies.

DATED COMPANIES PRICE QUANTITY VALUE

16-Mar GSK 225.5 445 100348
16-Mar NESTLE FOODS 9010 25 225250
16-Mar UNILEVER 6300 25 157500
PAKISAN
16-Mar LUCKY 875 120 105000
CEMENT
16-Mar ENGRO 67.5 1500 101250
FERTILIZER
16-Mar MEEZAN BANK 66.8 1600 106880
16-Mar NISHAT CHUN 58 1800 104400
16-Mar HASCOL 322.75 310 100053
PETROLEUM
1000680
th
The purchase has been done on 16 march at 9:00 a.m so the open price has been taken. The
quantity is divided based on riskiness of the securities and fluctuations in the prices of securities
and its market sensitivity.

REASONS

The companies are chosen based on the increasing trend in terms of

Revenue
Profit
EPS
Liquidity position
Net worth
Dividends

In addition to this, I have also analyzed the trend of the stock prices of the companies. Based on
the increasing trend of historical prices, I have selected the companies.

Week 2
On 23rd march 2017, Thursday

COMPANIES PRICE P0 PRICE QUANTITY VALUE VALUE

(P1) CHANGE (week 1) (week 2)
GSK 244.01 225.5 18.51 445 100347.5 108584.5
NESTLE 9000 9010 -10 25 225250 225000
UNILEVER 6110 6300 -190 25 157500 152750
LUCKY 890.01 875 120
105000
CEMENT 15.01 106801.2
ENGRO 65.05 67.5 1500
101250
FERTILIZER -2.45 97575
MEEZAN 69 66.8 1600
106880
BANK 2.2 110400
NISHAT CHUN 61.7 58 3.7 1800 104400 111060
HASCOL 327.11 322.75 310
100052.5
PETROLEUM 4.36 101404.1
1000680 1013575

I have experienced the unrealized gain of Rs. 12894.75 among which I have analyzed the major
gain in GSK Company which is the increase of almost Rs. 18.51 per share. As far as loss is
concerned, I have experienced a huge loss in unilever company but it is one of the company in
Pakistan so there are high probability that their prices will increase in future. In addition to this,
their financial statements are very strong so I think I should keep it in my portfolio now.

Week 3

According to the recent reports by Pakistan amercian business association, the car sales in
Pakistan increases in 2017, due to the highest growth in the demand of middle class peoples. In
addition to this, there is news blown in the air that Demand for locally manufactured new and
imported used cars will continue to rise. Although theres interest from Volkswagen, Kia,
Renault and Nissan for manufacturing plants in Pakistan, the production will not start this year
which also means prices of cars will not come down as current producers Toyota, Honda and
Suzuki remain in monopolistic situation and there is also increase in foreign investment in
automobile industry (The News 5th april) so it is feasible to invest in the automobile industry.
While comparing these three companies, I have analyzed that:

Suzuki sold huge number of cars last year but it was due to the contract from eastern province of
Punjab which requires 50,000 cars. Toyota Indus motors records 11% growth in sales as
compared to last year.

But Honda motors after merging with Atlas Honda records high sales up by 50% during the year,
and now it is expected to sell about 50,000 units in 2017. So after looking at the performance of
last year and its future expectation and comparing it with other two companies, I want to invest a
portion in Honda Atlas.

Now I have to sell the some stocks in order to buy the stocks related to auto industry so after
looking at the trend line, I realized that the shares of Meezan bank has reached at 74.98 which
gives me the profit of 8.18/share and there is little chance to rise further so I sell some of its
shares. Nestle is also touching its peak almost so I think I should sell some of its portion and
invest its proceed in auto industry.

Based on the analysis, I sold 190 shares of Meezan bank @74.98/ share and get the proceeds of
14246.2 (190*74.98) and 10 shares of Nestle @ 9300 / share so got the proceeds of 93000
(9300*10). I have the available funds of 107246.2 from which I bought 192 shares of atlas
Honda ltd @557. After purchasing the shares, I have the cash of 302.2 remaining in my pocket.

COMPANIES SELLING QUANTITY VALUE

PRICE
MEEZAN 74.98 190 14246.2
BANK
NESTLE 9300 10 93000
TOTAL 107246.2

COMPANIES PURCHASING QUANTITY VALUE

PRICE
ATLAS 557 192 106944
HONDA
TOTAL 106944

VALUE VALUE
CURRENT Price
COMPANIES P0 QUANTITY (week
PRICE change
1)
(week 3)
GSK 226.9 225.5 1.4 445 100348 100970.5
NESTLE 9300 9010 290 15 135150 139500
NESTLE 9300 9010 290 10 90100 Sold
-
UNILEVER 5923.18 6300 25 157500 148079.5
376.82
LUCKY CEMENT 843 875 -32 120 105000 101160
ENGRO FERTILIZER 62.05 67.5 -5.45 1500 101250 93075
MEEZAN BANK 74.98 66.8 8.18 1410 94188 105721.8
 MEEZAN BANK 74.98 66.8 8.18 190 12692 Sold
NISHAT CHUN 59.05 58 1.05 1800 104400 106290
HASCOL PETROLEUM 297.99 322.75 -24.76 310 100053 92376.9
ATLAS HONDA LTD 557 192 106944
CASH 302.2

1000680 994419.9

I have experienced a huge loss of 6260.1 among which I have analyzed a huge loss in Unilever
Pakistan and Hascol Petroleum and nestle gives me the highest profit.

Week 4

On 13th april 2017

Based on the prices, I have analyzed that the shares of Meezan Bank fluctuates rapidly during
last one week and today it reaches to its highest level in past few months, so I think I should sell
my whole stocks of Meezan Bank to get the best profit from this stock so I sold 1410 shares @
75.95/share and got the proceeds of 107089.5 and keep it to myself in the form of cash in order
to utilize it for purchasing the shares of Honda atlas cars at minimum price.

COMPANIES SELLING QUANTITY VALUE

PRICE
MEEZAN 75.95 1410 107089.5
BANK
TOTAL 107089.5

VALUE
CURRENT Price VALUE
COMPANIES P0 QUANTITY (week
PRICE change (week 3)
1)
GSK 214.59 225.5 -10.91 445 100348 95492.55
NESTLE 9300 9010 290 15 135150 139500
NESTLE - 9010 - 10 90100
UNILEVER 6200 6300 -100 25 157500 155000
LUCKY CEMENT 860.6 875 -14.4 120 105000 103272
ENGRO FERTILIZER 61 67.5 -6.5 1500 101250 91500
NISHAT CHUN 56.1 58 -1.9 1800 104400 100980
MEEZAN BANK - 66.8 - 1600 106880
HASCOL
329.99 322.75 7.24 310 100053 102296.9
PETROLEUM
 ATLAS HONDA LTD 560 557 3 192 107520
CASH 107089.5

TOTAL 1000680 1002651

I have analyzed the profit of 1970.95 among which the maximum loss was given to me by
Unilever and Lucky cement and profit was given to me by nestle.

Week 5

On 14th april 2017

I have analyzed that the price of Honda atlas cars has been fallen to 782.77, shows the decrease
of 5.6/share so its high time to purchase the shares. I have purchased 127 shares @782.77 from
cash. After purchasing the shares, I have 7677.71 remaining in my pocket.

COMPANIES PURCHASING QUANTITY VALUE

PRICE
ATLAS 782.77 127 99411.79
HONDA CARS
TOTAL 99411.79

On 21st april 2017

As the price of nestle reaches to 9451/share, I want to sell 5 shares of nestle at this price. During
last few months, the price of nestle reaches its highest point at 9600, so I can say it has the
potential to go beyond this price, so I want to sell just 5 shares at this point to get the benefit of
price increase while keep my 10 shares still with the expectations of increase in price further.
From this transaction, I get the proceeds of 47255 and keep it in the form of cash.

COMPANIES SELLING QUANTITY VALUE

PRICE
NESTLE 9451 5 47255
TOTAL 47255

VALUE
CURRENT Price VALUE
P0 QUANTITY (week
PRICE change (week 3)
1)
GSK 208.7 225.5 -16.8 445 100348 92871.5
NESTLE 9451 9010 441 10 90100 94510
NESTLE 9451 9010 441 5 45050
NESTLE 9010 10 90100 0
UNILEVER 6200 6300 -100 25 157500 155000
LUCKY CEMENT 871.25 875 -3.75 120 105000 104550
ENGRO FERTILIZER 62.2 67.5 -5.3 1500 101250 93300
MEEZAN BANK 66.8 1600 106880 0
NISHAT CHUN 55.99 58 -2.01 1800 104400 100782
HASCOL
349.49 322.75 26.74 310 100053 108341.9
PETROLEUM
ATLAS HONDA LTD 567 557 10 192 108864
ATLAS HONDA CARS 838.01 782.77 55.24 127 106427.27
CASH 54932.71

TOTAL 1000680 1019579.38

I have analyzed the profit of 18899.38 among which nestle gives me the highest profit and GSK
gives me the highest loss.

Week 6

On 28th april 2017

VALUE
CURRENT Price VALUE
P0 QUANTITY (week
PRICE change (week 3)
1)
GSK 227.29 225.5 1.79 445 100348 101144.05
NESTLE 9199.99 9010 189.99 10 90100 91999.9
NESTLE 0 9010 5 45050
NESTLE 9010 10 90100 0
UNILEVER 6400 6300 100 25 157500 160000
LUCKY CEMENT 877 875 2 120 105000 105240
ENGRO FERTILIZER 59.2 67.5 -8.3 1500 101250 88800
MEEZAN BANK 66.8 1600 106880 0
NISHAT CHUN 55.11 58 -2.89 1800 104400 99198
HASCOL
345.8 322.75 23.05 310 100053 107198
PETROLEUM
ATLAS HONDA LTD 597.9 557 40.9 192 114796.8
ATLAS HONDA
905.1 782.77 122.33 127 114947.7
CARS
CASH 54932.71

TOTAL 1000680 1038257.2

I have analyzed the gain of 37577.16, out of which the major profit is given by Nestle (gain of
189.99/share) and Atlas Honda cars (gain of 122.33/share) and the loss is given by Engro
Fertilizer (loss of 8.3).

Week 7

On 2nd may 2017

As I have almost Rs. 55000 cash in hand and I am expecting better performance in the banking
industry due to CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) so I analyze the fundamental
performance of various banks and came up with few banks showing the better performance last
year. Among these few banks, I have purchased the shares of UBL according to their share prices
so I purchase 223 shares @ Rs. 246/share. After purchasing the shares, I have 74.71 remaining in
my pocket.

COMPANIES PURCHASING QUANTITY VALUE

PRICE
UNITED BANK 246 223 54858
TOTAL 54858

On 5th May 2017

After purchasing UBL shares, I have the portfolio consisting of following companies.

VALUE
CURRENT Price VALUE
P0 QUANTITY (week
PRICE change (week 3)
1)
GSK 220.11 225.5 -5.39 445 100348 97948.95
NESTLE 9200 9010 190 10 90100 92000
NESTLE 0 9010 0 5 45050 0
NESTLE 9010 0 10 90100 0
UNILEVER 6699 6300 399 25 157500 167475
LUCKY CEMENT 904 875 29 120 105000 108480
ENGRO FERTILIZER 58.01 67.5 -9.49 1500 101250 87015
MEEZAN BANK 66.8 0 1600 106880 0
NISHAT CHUN 58.95 58 0.95 1800 104400 106110
HASCOL
357 322.75 34.25 310 100053 110670
PETROLEUM
ATLAS HONDA LTD 617 557 60 192 118464
ATLAS HONDA CARS 923 782.77 140.23 127 117221
UNITED BANK 250 246 4 223 55750
 CASH 74.71

TOTAL 1000680 1061208.7

I have analyzed the gain of Rs. 60528.66 out of which the maximum profit is given by Unilever
and the major loss is given by Engro fertilizer.

FUTURE PLAN

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday has predicted about the economic growth forecast
for the current fiscal year at five to six percent, predicting a robust recovery in agriculture sector.
(The Times of Islamabad, 1st april 2017). Finance minister Ishaq Dar offered Germanys
technical support in the agriculture sector to achieve higher yields. (The times of Islamabad 6th
april 2017). So I am actually looking forward to invest in it in coming future when I realize the
stock price is suitable enough to invest in it.

In addition to this, Engro fertilizer is also giving me a huge loss so I think its better to sell it off
once its price will go up.