India Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010

CONTENTS

Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7

SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 9

India Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
India Economic SWOT......................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
India Business Environment SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 11

India Energy Market Overview ...................................................................................................................... 12

Global Oil Market Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 15

Trouble On The Horizon ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Table: Oil Price Forecasts................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................................................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................................................................................................................................................ 21

Regional Energy Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 22

Oil Supply And Demand............................................................................................................................................................................................ 22
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) .................................................................................................................................................... 23
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) ....................................................................................................................................................... 24
Oil: Downstream ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)............................................................................................................................................. 25
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) ....................................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) .......................................................................................................................................................... 27
Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)............................................................................................................................................... 28

Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 29

Asia Pacific Region................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 30
Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.................................................................................................................................... 31
India Upstream Rating – Overview...................................................................................................................................................................... 32
India Upstream Rating – Rewards ....................................................................................................................................................................... 32
India Upstream Rating – Risks ............................................................................................................................................................................ 32
Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ............................................................................................................................... 33
India Downstream Rating – Overview ................................................................................................................................................................. 34
India Downstream Rating – Rewards .................................................................................................................................................................. 34
India Downstream Rating – Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................ 34

Business Environment .................................................................................................................................. 35

Legal Framework...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Labour Force ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 38
Foreign Investment Policy ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Tax Regime ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41

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 India Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010

Security Risk ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41

Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 43

Oil And Gas Reserves ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Oil Supply And Demand............................................................................................................................................................................................ 43
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
CBM.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
LNG .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Refining And Oil Products Trade .............................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Revenues/Import Costs.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Table: India Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................................ 50
Other Energy ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 51
Table: India Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 58
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ..................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Long-Term Energy Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 58

Oil And Gas Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................ 59

Oil Refineries ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 59
Table: Refineries In India .................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
Service Stations......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Oil Storage Facilities ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 61
Oil Pipelines ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 61
LNG Terminals ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Table: LNG Terminals in India ............................................................................................................................................................................ 62
Gas Storage Facilities............................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Gas Pipelines ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 64

Macroeconomic Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 66

Table: India - Economic Activity ......................................................................................................................................................................... 68

Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................. 69

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69
Table: Key Players – India Oil And Gas Sector................................................................................................................................................... 70
Overview/State Role .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 70
Licensing And Regulation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 70
Government Policy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 72
Licensing Rounds ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 74
International Energy Relations ............................................................................................................................................................................ 76
Table: Key Upstream Players .............................................................................................................................................................................. 77
Table: Key Downstream Players ......................................................................................................................................................................... 77

Company Monitor ........................................................................................................................................... 78

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) ................................................................................................................................................................. 78
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)................................................................................................................................................................................... 84
Reliance Industries ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 87
Oil India Ltd (OIL) ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 93
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL)........................................................................................................................................................ 96
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL).............................................................................................................................................................. 99
GAIL (India) ............................................................................................................................................................................................................101
Cairn India ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................104
BP – Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................................................106
BG Group – Summary.........................................................................................................................................................................................107
Shell – Summary .................................................................................................................................................................................................107

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 India Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010

Total – Summary .................................................................................................................................................................................................108

Oilex – Summary.................................................................................................................................................................................................108
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) – Summary ................................................................................................................................110
Eni – Summary....................................................................................................................................................................................................111
Essar Oil – Summary ..........................................................................................................................................................................................112
Hardy Oil & Gas – Summary ..............................................................................................................................................................................113
Others – Summary ..............................................................................................................................................................................................113

Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ............................................................................................. 114

Regional Oil Demand ..............................................................................................................................................................................................114
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) ...................................................................................................................................................114
Regional Oil Supply .................................................................................................................................................................................................115
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) ......................................................................................................................................................115
Regional Refining Capacity ................................................................................................................................................................................116
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)............................................................................................................................................116
Regional Gas Demand ........................................................................................................................................................................................117
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) ......................................................................................................................................................117
Regional Gas Supply...........................................................................................................................................................................................118
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) .........................................................................................................................................................118
India Country Overview ...........................................................................................................................................................................................118
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................................119

Glossary Of Terms ....................................................................................................................................... 120

Business Environment Ratings Methodology........................................................................................... 121

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..........................................................................................................................................................................121
Ratings Overview .....................................................................................................................................................................................................121
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure ..................................................................................................................122
Indicators.................................................................................................................................................................................................................122
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings – Methodology ...........................................................................................122
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology .......................................................................................124

BMI Forecast Modelling ............................................................................................................................... 126

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..............................................................................................................................................................126
Energy Industry .......................................................................................................................................................................................................127
Cross Checks ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................127
Sources ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................127

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