Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 265

2008

Peter Lynch
with John Rothchild

One Up
on
Wall Street
How to Use
What You Already Know
to Make Money in the Market

Simon & Schuster Paperbacks


New York London Toronto Sydney
336.76
65.262.2
59

.
59 : -
/ ; . . .:
, 2008. 265 .

ISBN 978-5-9614-0590-3
-
.
. :
-
-.
. -
. ,
, , .
, ,
. , -
, -
, .

, .

336.76
65.262.2

.



.

Peter Lynch, 1989, 2000


Simon & Schuster, Inc.
ISBN 978-5-9614-0590-3 (.) ,
ISBN 13 978-0-7432-0040-0 (.) , .
ISBN 10 0-7432-0040-3 (.) , 2008

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

I
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2. -. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3. ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5. ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

II
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
7. ! ! ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
9. , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
10. , , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
11. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
13. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
14. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
15. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
III
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
16. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
17. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
18. . . . . . . . . . . . 234
19. , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
20. 50 000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261


. , ,
? , , -
, ,
Fidelity Magellan Fund,
.
1989 .
. 1990 . Magellan,
, . -
,
. , . -
,
.
.
. , -
, .
! Dow Jones
1990 ., 2400 11 000 XX
. 50%
32% 1989 .
25 .,
. ,
, - 1.
4 . ,
275 1989 . ,
, . ,
, -,
1

(The Millionaire Next Door). . .
8

, .
-
. ,
, ,
.
Magellan .
-
, -
. ,
Fidelity /
. ,
.
.
. 1982 .

Dow Jones 15 . -
. ,
. :
1929 ., , 1982 . Dow Jones
248 1046 . ! -
, .
Dow Jones 2500 5000 8
, 5000 10 000 .
, 1995 1999 ., , -
20% . -
20% .

.
1970- ., Magellan. ,
,
, . ,
,
, Dow Jones
1960- . , ,
, .
,
, AT&T 1984 .
. :
. , -
. -
( ) -
. , , . -
, Dunkin Donuts Chrysler,
. , ,
9

- Fannie Mae.
:
. , (-
, ) .
- 1997 . -
, -
. , -
,
, ,
, ( -
- , -
). ,
,
, . -
- Amazon.com.
,
.
, . -
Amazon , -
, . , Amazon
, , -
. , 1997 . , ,
, .
, .
, ,
Amazon
. , . 1998 .
Amazon 10 (,
).
Amazon -,
. -

- . ,
.
.
, .
, -
,
. - (, ) ,
- ,
, , Wal-Mart Home Depot, -
.
- -
. (
10

, , , -
.) .com -
- , -
.
, , , -
,
, .
Maserati ,
, -
, , .
, .
, -
?
, . ,
, , .
,
. ,

, , - -
, .
,

.
,
, . -
,
. ,
, .

, -
. ,
-
: , ,
. , , -
.
( !)
, .

/ (P/E). ,
P/ .
P/E , :
! , -
, , .
1989 ., ,
11

Financial News Network.



Dow Jones, S&P 500 . . .
- , -
. -

.
, ,
.
, -
. - 30 .,
10 ., , , , -
. . , -
,
.
, , -
, . ,
-
. , -
.
, .
, , , -
,
( ) -
. -
,
. , , .
- , McDonalds
, Schlumberger
. - -
, , ,
.
, , -
, .
,
, , ,
.
DotCom.com. -
(, 100 -
) (, 100 . ). ,
100 ., 10 . -
DotCom.com.
- ,
. ,
12

. DotCom.com
, ,
10 100 . -
, :
100 .? -
, -
P/E,
, , 40.
. . 155, ,
,
,
McDonalds. 1972 . , -
50 .
, 75 25 .
, -
13 .
Electronic Data
Systms (EDS), ,
P/ 500. ,
, EDS -
. P/E, 500, -
, P/E 50 40,
DotCom.com, .
, 100 .
DotCom.com 2,5 . . 1999 .
33 2,5 .,
DotCom.com -
, Microsoft. ,
.

.
,
.
.
, , , ,
(Levi Strauss), .
, -
- ( -
).
, -
-.

. -,
.
13

,
.
,
800 ., -
1 ., ,
. - ,
-
.
,
.
,
,
, . . , , -
.
. ,
.
, ,
, , -
, . ,
500 ., ,
, 10 ., , .
,
. ,
, , .
Microsoft, , .
Cisco Intel, ,
, . Microsoft
1986 . 15 .
, 1 .,
80 . ( , -
15 . -
. . 32.)
, . . , Microsoft -
Windows 95,
, . Microsoft -
. Apple -
Microsoft Windows. Apple -
. Windows,
Windows, Apple.
Apple , , -
710% .

Miscrosoft (Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Compaq, IBM . .)
.
14

-, Microsoft. -
. ,
.
Cisco. -
1990 .
480 .
, . -
Cisco -
. Cisco
. ,
. - ,
, .
Microsoft Cisco
. --
, ,
, , , -
, , - .
, .
, , -
, . -
, ,
.

, .
-,
, ,
. , ,

, !
, ,
, , . .
,

, . . , -
. Radio Shack Toys R Us
10% , , ,
90% . ,
.

* * *

- , -
-
. 1989 . ,
15

. -
:
, Value Line Standard & Poors
, -
.
.
. , -
, -
. , ,
, -
.
.
, , -
.
Brieng Books The Wall Street Journal Barrons
. -
Zacks
, .

,
1975 .

,
.
, , ,
, Magellan.
. ( -
-
,
.) , , ,
-
. -
, , -
. ,
- . ( - -
,
20%- .)
, 1980- ., 1970-. -
- ,
. , -
, ,
. - .
,
.
16

:
, .
, , -
. ? ,
( ),
. 1000 . -
, . 1000 .
, 10 000, 15 000,
20 000 ., . ,
, , -
.
,
, :
Bethlehem Steel General Electric. .
Bethlehem, , 1960 . -
,
, .
Bethlehem, , -
. , 1958 . 60 ., 1989 .
17 ., , ,
, . 1989 .
, -
, . , Bethlehem
Steel , , , , .
General Electric (
), ,
, GE ( 39 ., -
3 .), .
, .
, -
. , -
, ,
,
. GE 1990- .
, .


: . -
. 186, ,
,
, .
, ,

, . 1999 . -
17

500 , S&P 500, -



1%.
, , 1989 .,
.
, , . (
50 . 5 ., -
10%. 100 ., -
5%.)
, .
, The New York Times (7 1999 .),
,
.

. -
.
, -
GE.
,
,
.
- ,
, -
, -
. -
, -
,
, . -
, -
.
,
,
. : ,
,
.
, , -
.

( 1970- 1980- .) ( 1980-),
, .
, : , , -
, ,
. -
, -
18


. . -

, , ,
.
-
, , , ,
.
, .
Fidelity
Magellan, , .

1990 ., .

- ,
. 1989 . -
, 300 ,
. ,
800 . -
- ?
? -
( ),
.

1% .
.
, ,
, ,
, - . -
- .
. 20 5000 ,
,
.
, .
, , , -
Dow Jones . -
, ,
. - -
.
,
, . ,
,
. :
S&P 500 20%, ? ,
19

, ,
.
, 1998 . S&P 500 28%, -
, 50 40%,
450 . NASDAQ,
- , -
,
. 1999 .,
.
1500 , - ,
. -
. , , S&P 500
-, NASDAQ .
, 1990- . NASDAQ (Intel, Cisco -
) , S&P 500.
, ,
. - -
:
100 . , 100 -
, 99 . -
. ,
, -
,
, -
. ,
.
Amgen -
1 . - -
-
.

, :
1962 ., 1981 .
1929 .. 1970- .,
, (-
50 ) . -
19721974 . 50 5080%!
,
.
50
25 (, ,
, ), -
. 30 ,
50 , . 1990- .
20

Dow
Jones S&P 500.
1972 ., .
, 50 , ,
, , .
50 , , -
19731974 ., ? ,
( 10% ) -
( 20% ) . -
( 30% )
19291932 . , -
,
, 12
, - .
,
. ,
.
. -
,
1987 . 50
, .
9 10 ( ), ,
-
. ,
. ,
. ,
, .
1987 . , 1990 .,
Fidelity Magellan Fund.
1987 . (35%-
), , 1990 . .
? 1987 . , -
, . 1990 .
, -
. ,
, ,
.
10%-
1996 ., 1997 . 1998 . 1999 . 1998 .
S&P 500 14,5%
.
, S&P 500 50%.
? , -
, .
21

, ,
. . 100 000
. 1 1994 . , 100 000
341 722 . 30
30
100 000 . 153 792 .
.
:
.
.
, -
1990 ..

1982 . ,
, ,
1994 ., 1997 .,
, , , , -
2000 . ,
2000 .
.

. , -
1989 ., Dow Jones 2600. ,
1992 ., Dow Jones 3000.
1995 ., Dow Jones 4000.
,
40%
, -
. -
, , , -
.
, -
, .
:
, ,
-, , -
. .
: ,
, 17
1990- ., -
, . , -
, ,
-
.
22


. -
, -
.
, ,
.
, , , ,
, .
: 1999 .
, .
.
. .
. , ,
. , .
, -
, . -
55 , 60 .
, ,
.
20 , 100
- 1990- .

. ( Helix,
Photronics, Siliconix Theragenics) , -
, ,
. -
Dell Computer. Dell?
Dell -
. , , 889--
: 10 000 ., Dell ,
, 8,9 . -
, Dell, Microsoft Intel
( Intel inside).
-, Amgen,

.
Schwab? . Home Depot?

100 . Harley-Davidson?
, , -
, Harley. Lowes? -
, Home Depot. , -
. Paychex?
,
23

Paychex. Paychex
, -
.
(
) . The Gap, Best Buy,
Staples, Dollar General ,
. -
, , ,
, -
. : ,
.
.



1990 .
24

10 000 ,


1989 ., 1999
, .
1 DELL Dell Computer 8,9
6 CCU Clear Channel Comm. 8,1
9 BBY Best Buy 995 000
10 MSFT Microsoft 960 000
13 SCH Charles Schwab 827 000
14 NBTY NBTY , 782 000
20 WCOM MCI Worldcom 694 000
21 AMGN Amgen 576 000
30 PPD Prepaid Legal Services 416 000
33 INTC Intel 372 000
34 HD Home Depot 370 000
40 PAYX Paychex 340 000
46 DG Dollar General 270 000
49 HDI Harley-Davidson 251 000
52 GPS Gap 232 000

69 SPLS Staples 186 000

75 WBPR Westernbank/Puerto Rico 170 000
77 MDT Medtronic 168 000
82 ZION Zions Bancorp 161 000
87 LOW Lowes Companies 152 000
* , .

: Ned Davis Research


:

, -
1620 1987 .
. , ,
,
. , ,
.
16 , , ,
, .
, .
- ,
. 100 ,
, -
, , 250
S&P, .
,
, .
. ,
, ,
. , -
, , ,
.
-
,
.
19 , -
, 18
Killeen , .
,
,
26

Sceilig Hotel. , -
.
, ,
Doyles, . -
, 20- , .


, . , ,
.
, , .
, ,
.
,
, Dow Jones 48 , ,
, 108,36 . -
.
Dow Jones,
, .
, -
, , ,
.
, Killeen , Dow
Jones 508 .


, - , ,
. -
. , ,
,
. ,
Magellan Fund 18%
, 2 .
, -
. -
.
, . ,
, 1500
,
.
, ,
19 . , ,
: 27

- ,
-.
, .
.
, , -
, -
. -
, , Dow Jones -
150 508 , .
Doyles, ,
, . ,
,
.
20-,
. ,
. , .


,
. , .
3% Fidelity Magellan -
.
.
19 ,
.
,
, , , , , -
. 1988 . 400
23% .
, , -
: 1) -
; 2) -
; 3) ,
.
, ,
, , , .
, , -
. , 508
108, , -
.
- , -
Doyles, .
:

, , , -
. ,
: !
, ,
3%, -
-
-.
, ,
, , -
. -
, , ,
, , -
, .
, .
- , -
, ,
. , ,
. ?
, .
, . ,
, , -
. , -
Fidelity Magellan.
. -
, ,
,
, .
, -
. ,
,
: 29

-
. , -
.
,
. -, ! (

, ,
, 40% .) -,
, ,
. -, -
, . , -
, .
, -

, , -
. , -
,
, -
, .
, .
Fidelity .

- ,
, . ,
,
, -. -
, -
. - -
, , .
, ,
. ,
, Flying Tiger Airlines ,
.
, , ,
,
1400 .
.
.
. -
! 1980 ., -
30

. ,
22 1980 . 10 000 .
4 1983 . . B
, ,
, Stop & Shop, -
.
10 000 . 13 040 ., . . -
30,4%
( S&P 500
40,6%). , , , :
? -
Stop & Shop, 10 000 . 21 060 ., -
110,6%
-.


, , ,
. . %
Bethlehem Steel 251/8 231/8 8,0
3
Coca-Cola 32 /4 521/2 +60,3
General Motors 467/8 743/8 +58,7
7 3
W. R. Grace 53 /8 48 /4 9,5
Kellogg 183/8 297/8 +62,6
Mfrs. Hanover 33 391/8 +18,5
1
Merck 80 98 /8 +22,7
Owens Corning 267/8 353/4 +33,0
5 1
Phelps Dodge 39 /8 24 /4 38,8
Schlumberger
( ) 817/8 513/4 36,8
+162,7
B :
Stop & Shop 6 60 +900,0

, Stop & Shop


, -
.
,
- .
,
.
: 31


,
Braino Biofeedback
Cosmic R and D, . . , .
.
Dunkin Donuts, Wal-Mart, Toys R Us, Stop & Shop Subaru.
, Subaru.
,
?
. , , . -,
, -
1977 . 2 . -, 1986 .
, 312 .
8 11. 156- 39 -,
6410 . ( , -
!) , , , 1 .
, Jaguar .
, Dunkin Donuts
, ,
? , , -
1982 . (270 .),
, 1539 . ().
Dunkin Donuts 10 000 .
47 000 .
1976 . 180 .
The Gap, , 10
Gap, 180 . (
18 . ), 4672,50 .
1987 . The Gap 10 000 .
250 000 .

1
-
, . . 1000 .
100 10 .
, 200 5 . . ,
10 . .
, , , ,
10 ., - 10 .
Subaru,
312 .
8 1, 39 . (312 ./8). -
, 8. -
, 1977 ., 2 ., 25
(2 ./8 = 0,25 .), 25 .

. , .
32

1973 . 31 -
La Quinta Motor Inns (11,98 .
) (371,38 .)
La Quinta (23,21 ),
4363,08 . La Quinta 10 000 . -
107 500 .
1969 . , -
Service orporation
International (980 .)
, 1987 . 70 14 352,19 .
SCI 10 000 . 137 000 .
, 1982 ., 2000 .
Apple,
, 2000 . Apple,
1987 . 11 950 . ,
.



.
,
,
,
.
. 1950- .
, Tambrands (
Tampax) .
, , ,
Tambrands 2000 . , ,
2000 . . 1972 .
,
Subaru.
, -
, , ,
, . . , -
,
. ,
.
, -
,
Quotron.
, .
: 33


,
, -
, . ,
.
aco Bell.
( ),
. La Quinta
Motor Inns
Holiday Inn. Volvo -
. Apple Computers
,
. Service orporation International
Fidelity,
(
, ). Dunkin Donuts -
. Pier 1
Imports, .
. Leggs.
Leggs .
1970- . ,
Fidelity Magellan,
. -
: , , -
, P/E .

. Leggs,

.

. Hanes
Leggs ,
. Hanes
, .
. Hanes
-
, ,
.
Leggs,
. , ,
. -
, -
. , ,
. Leggs ,
34

,
.
Hanes
. -
, ,
. ,
Leggs 12 . -
. -
, ,
. ,
, .
, , , ,
, , ,
Leggs? . -
, .
: , Leggs
Hanes Hanes - .
Hanes, , -
, . ,
, ,
Tambrands, Hanes Fidelity.
Hanes , Consolidated Foods.
Sara Lee. Leggs
Sara Lee , -
. , Hanes , -
.
Leggs ,
. Hanes ,
Leggs ,
. ,
. ( -
), , -
,
, .
( ,
). -,
. , (,
) The Wall Street
Journal , -
250 . -
, - -
, . Journal,
Winchester Disk Drives, -
.
: 35

-
, , Merrill Lynch
Winchester .
, .
, 3000 .
Winchester . , -
!
, , , -
(
, ),
, -
The Limited. .
,
.
, . - 275 ..
275 ? .
, , . ,
, Winchester Disk Drives. !
3000 .
, , , , -
. Havalight Photo Cell?
7 3,5 .
.
-, Havalight. Winchester. Wall Street Journal ,

. ?
. Winchester Disk Drives
, ,
10 . 5. -
, ,
1500 . ( , ).
The Limited,
, 50 -
( ) 1979 . 9 . 1983 .,
. 9 .
( 5 .),
, , ,
527/8 . , -
10 000 ., .
275 ., -
, 275 . , -
.
, ,
The Limited Winchester,
36

.
Limited, ,
, . ,
Mesa Petroleum.
- 1987 ., ,
508 , , The
Limited ,
, ,
,
.
, , -
.
, , .
, , The Limited? ,
. , .
, PBS,
. , Forbes -
. . ,
.
, ? -
.
, , .
.
The Limited, .
, .
.
! .
, .
50 . 1987 .
16 .,
, , .

?
, The Limited, ,
, .
, .
The Limited, ,
,
.
, ,
.
, -
: 37

, .
Pebble Beach,
, .
.
, , , -
, .
, , , , -
. , , ,
.
, , Leggs
Dunkin Donuts, , , ,
, , -
-.
.
,
, ,
, . - , -
, , -. ,
Merrill Lynch
Dunkin Donuts,
? Merrill Lynch -
Dunkin Donuts ( , ) ,
2 . 10,
, 2 .


- -
.
, ,
, . ,
- : ,
, .
, ,
, .
. , -
- , -
, (SRAM)
1 , - ( -
);
, / ,
, 16- -
, Unix, -
38

Whetstone, -
, ,
, , -
,
15 .
, ,
, ,
,

.


, -
, , ,
, ?
, -
Bildners, . -
,
, .
.
Coleco? c
XX .,
. ,
,
, 1983 .,
65 ., 1 . 1988 .,
11 .
.
, Toys R Us Coleco, Apple
Computer Televideo Piedmont Airlines People Express. ,
, People
Express. , .
, ,
Fidelity Magellan, -
, , -
. ,
. , -
, , , .

. -
( 15) , -
, (-
: 39

,
-), ,

. ( 615)
, -
,
, ,
, , -
( P/E, , -
), .
( 1620) , -
, -
, , ,
, -
-, -
, -
.
I

,
, -
,
,
,

.

(
, , -
?).

, -
-
. ,
-
, ,
. -
-
, .
1


.
,
.
, -
, , , ,
. ,
-
, General Motors,
ATT.
, 19 1944 ., Dow Jones
, . ,
, :
. (
1987 .: , -
, 1000
. ,
.)
,
.
, -
1929 .
.
, ,
, Cities Service.
44 I.

Cities Service ,
. - ,
, . Cities
Service .
1950-
1960- ., , .
, 1980-
, ,
. ,
. . .
, 1950- .
,
. ,

, :
, ,
.
, -
, John Hancock. -
, ,
.
Ludlow Manufacturing, Tyco Labs.
- , .
11 ,
. 7 1955 ., ,
Dow Jones 467 460 .
, ,
.
, . ,
. ?
, -
-, ,
Brae Burn .
: Gillette, Polaroid , ,
Fidelity. , -
. , ,

Brae Burn.
,
- -
.
. ,
, ,
.
1. 45

, -
,
, . ,
, , ,
.
. -
( : , ,
), ,
-
. ,

, .
, .
- ,
, .
, ,
, , -
. ,
,
, , ,
.
, ,

, , , .
, , , -
, . -
,
Cray . . -
, (Chrysler
1 ., 500 . . .),
.
,
, , -
-. -, - ,
.
, . ,
, .
,
, ,
.
- , , -
, . ,
- , -
: ,
46 I.

, - , -
, -
, . . ,
.
1963 . Flying
Tiger Airlines 7 .
, , ,
. ,
85 ., , 150 . -
, ,
, !
Flying Tigers .
, -
. , , -
,
Flying Tigers. . ,
. , -
Flying Tigers
.
, Flying Tiger 32 .,
. , -
.
, Flying Tiger.
,
, ,
Flying Tiger.
, , , .
- , -
Fidelity , -
,
. Fidelity
- -, - Augusta National, -
Kentucky Derby. C
, . -
, ,
, .
.
Fidelity ,
Fidelity Capital 100 .
, ,

. Fidelity Trend, III,
. ,
II, - .
1. 47

Fidelity Trend Fidelity Capital 1958


1965 . , ,
. -
, ,
, : ,
.
-
. - ,
, , , -
.
. , , ,
, - .
Ms. !
, Fidelity -
,
Manhattan Fund -. -
1966 . , Dow
Jones, 925 , -
800 , .


MAINE SUGAR
, , ,
,
.
-
. - ,
,
Sorg Paper International Textbook, . -
, .
Greyhound, -
.
Fidelity
. ,
, -
, .
, . -
, Fidelity -
.
,
(,
48 I.

) (,
).
,
, ,
Fidelity .
, ,
,
Fidelity, , -
, .
, -,
Kentucky Fried Chicken,
, .
.

, ,
, .
( , , 11 1968 ., .
,
, Dow Jones 13,93 .
,
.)
-
,
ROTS. 1967 1969 .
,
. -
.
: .
-.
,
, .
, ,
, . -
- Ranger Oil, Maine Sugar,
, .
Maine Sugar
, ,
. Maine Sugar,
. ,
, -
, . Maine Sugar
, , ,
,
Maine Sugar.
1. 49

-
. ,
, , -
, , ,
, - , Maine Sugar -
. ,
Lions Club.
Maine Sugar ,
.
1969 . Fidelity,
.
(
!). 1974 .
, Dow Jones
250 . 1977 .
Fidelity Magellan. , -
899 ,
801 .
Fidelity Magellan 20 . -
40 , , Fidelity,
25.
60. 100, -
150. - . -
, , ,
.
,
, . , -
, , -
.
, ,
- .
, (,
, ). -
. Southland,
7-Eleven, Circle K, National Convenience, Shop
and Go, Hop-In Foods, Fairmont Foods, Sunshine Junior . . . .
,
, .
1,
, , . Barrons
,

1
, :
, . . .
50 I.

? 1400, ,
- . , , -
.
Fidelity Magellan 9 .,
-
. , Fidelity Magellan
,
2500 .
, , ,
: . ,
, ,
. , .
2


, ,
. -
- .
,
. ,
70% -
. .
, . -
, .
, -
. , -,
, ,
. ,
, -
. , 19721974 ., -
,
.
Dow Jones
Nikkei . 1966 1988 . Dow Jones, -
, Nikkei .
, -
, Mutual Shares.

,
52 I.

.
.
Loomis-Sayles.
-
, . -
. Toys R Us.
, . -
, .
, -
, , ,
, . -
, ,
. , , ,
.
, ,
, , ,
,
, , .
, , .
,
. , , .
. -
. ,
.
. -
,
. .
, , , Fidelity Magellan.
,
. , ,
, -
.
,
,
.

-
-
, 99 100 , ,
. -
, , .
.
2. - 53


, ,
-, ,
. ,
, -
.
, -, -
The Limited. 1969 ., ,
, -
.
Vercoe & Co., . , , , -
The Limited. Vercoe & Co. -
The Limited
. , -
,
.

White Weld. 1974 . First Boston:
-
, - . -
.
1975 . The Limited
T. Rowe Price New Horizons. -
, .

.
1979 . The Limited -
, 0,6%
. -
. , .
1981 . -
, .
, , . 1983 .
9 ., ,
1979 ., 50 ,
18 .
1984 . 5 .,
,
. ( ,
, -
, .) 1985 .,
15 ., . -
, The Limited -
. -
54 I.

527/8 . -
.
, 37, -
The Limited.
, ,
Service Corporation International (SCI).
1969 . -
! -,
. SCI Under-
wood, Neuhaus & Co, 1982 . Shear-
son. .
SCI 1983 . 12 . 1987 .
303/8 ., . -
1978 . .

. , -
, .
- SCI,
-
. -
, .
1970- ., Subaru -
, - . 1977
1986 . Dunkin Donuts .
,
.
Adams, Harkness, and Hill , Dunkin Donuts
. ,
, .
1981 . Pep Boys ( )
. 1985 ., 91/2 .,
. -
Stop & Shop 5 50 ., -
.
, , ,
, . IBM, , 56
, Exxon 44.


, , -
, ,
-. , ,
2. - 55

, .
, .
: ,
, -
, ,
.
: Stop & Shop ,
7-Elevens, Pic N Sav Sears, Rent-A-Car -
Hertz and Avis. ,
, .
, -
.
, -
La Quinta.
-
-
,
. ,
. -
: ,
IBM.
IBM , , -
: , , IBM? -
- La Quinta Motor Inns, :
, ? La Quinta Motor Inns, -
3 .,
, .
Wal-Mart 4 ., -
- .
, Wal-Mart
, -
, Wal-Mart -
People ,
.
40 .

, -
.
,
. -
, .
, , .
National Bank, -
. -
56 I.

, ,
40%, 28%. ,
. . -
,
, ,
. ,
, .
,

. , -
, - .
, , , -
, .
, , , -
, -
.
. -
, -
,
, .
.
, ,
, -
. .
,
.
. , ,
, . -
. ,
. ,
.

.
. ,
.
.
, .
-
, .
, , -
, , --
. Fidelity Magellan .
, -
.
2. - 57

- Blind Trust, -
White Bread, Inc.
.
, . -
, .
, - White Bread, Inc., , -
. ,
. -
. -
,
. , ,
, .
-
-
, White Bread. -
: ,
.
, , Ford Motor,
Eastman Kodak Eaton.
, , -
, Xerox .
52 . ,
32 . !
.
Sears.
347/8 ., 25 . , . -
, .
, Xerox Sears 1967 .,
. , ,
, , -
.
Seven Oaks International. ,
. - -
, 15
Heinz, 25 Windex . .
?
Seven Oaks. , -
--,
. Seven Oaks
, .
, ,
.
. -
10 ., 6 .
58 I.

? . 40%! -
. -

Xerox Sears. Seven Oaks,
, -
.
,
, ,
, ,
:
.

, Seven Oaks
( ,
), , ,
. , . -
, .

.
-
, , ,
. ,
. ,
.
, ,
, -
. -
,
Xerox Seven Oaks.
!, -
, . -
-
. ,
,
. ,
.


,
- , -
.
,
2. - 59

.
-
, .
, ,
,
, .
, , .
, -
(Securities and Exchange Commission
SEC). , SEC Fidelity
10%
5% .
-
(
), -
( ).
.
, 1 .
40 ,
.
5% , 20 -
50 . 40
25 .
, 25 .
10% . -
, ,
. ,
Seven Oaks International Dunkin Donuts.
-
: ,
, , 100 . (
.) ,
20 1,75 ., -
35 . .
5,25 ., 105 .,
. ,
,
.
10%-
Fortune 500,
. IBM, Xerox
Chrysler. , Chrysler , , -
.
, Scudder, Stevens and Clark, -
60 I.

, (31/2 .),
30 .
, -
.
, , ,
.
. , ,
, -
. , , -
, -
. ,
Xerox Seven Oaks.
. -
, . , 9--
800- ,
. ,
,
, .
Fidelity Magellan, , 9 .
. , -
, . 1985 . Magellan,
, 98% .
Seven Oaks, Chrysler, Taco Bells, Pep Boys -
,
. ,
. , -
-.


-
. , , , -
. -
-. ,
, -
, . -
, -.
, -
, IBM -
Rent-A-Car. ,
, .
Seven Oaks,
. (. . ,
2. - 61

),
?
( -
, ,
. , ,
,
.)
.
, 6 .,
, -
. :
Wal-Mart Dunkin Donuts,
- . , ,
11 ., 19 ., . -
,
Quotron.
1400
100 . ,
. ,

. .
, , ,
.
, -
,
.
,
. , -
, -
.
3

1987 .
. , :
-
. ,
-
. .
,
, -
. , , . -
. 1626 .
24 . -
.
, ,
.
24 ., 8% (,
),
30 . -
,
28,1 . . ,
. , 56,2 .
29 .
, 8% . -
. , -
6%, 34,7 .
.
3. ? 63

2%
.
, :
.
. -
, , .
4%. -
16%, 8%. ,
20- 1980 ., , -
, 16% -
. 20-
, , -
. , -
, .

. , -
, .
, -
. -
, . -
, ,
. -
, -
, , -
. ,
.

. ,
.



, -
:
. -
,

.
, -
- ,
. 1971 .
The Reserve Fund.
64 I.

, -
.
,
. -
,
,
.

5%- , ,
-
.
1978 .,
. .
6%.
. 1981 ., -
17%, 5%,
22%.
29 -
1986 . 25 1987 ., Dow Jones 1775
2722 , (, )
. -
,
. , .
, Dow Jones 1738 -
, .
19 .
: 6,12% 5,25% (S&P 500).


,
, -
. .
, , . 1927 .
9,8% ,
5%, 4,4%,
3,4%.
, -
3% ,
6,8% . ,

, . .
3. ? 65

(9,8%) -
(5%) . . -
. , 1927 .
60 , 20 . .
5%. 373 584 .
,
Volvo .
9,8%, 5 459 720 . (-
, 1929 1987 . .)
1927 . 1000 . -
, 60 -
:

7 400 .
13 200 .
17 600 .
272 000 .

, , ,
,
, ,
, !
. ,
. .
, . ,
, .
,
McDonalds. , ,
. , .
. ,
, .
, .
. -
.

? ,
. ? ,
. , - .
, .
66 I.

, -
. RCA
, . 1986 .
GE 66,50 . , . .
1967 ., 74% 1929 . (38,25 .
). , 57 ,

1% . Bethlehem Steel -
1958 ., 60 .
, Dow Jones 1896 .
- American Cotton Oil, Distilling and Cattle Feeding,
Laclede Gas U.S. Leather Preferred?
.
1916 . Baldwin Locomotive,
1924 . 1926 . Paramount
Famous Lasky Remington Typewriter. 1927 . United
Drug. 1928 . 20 30 ,
, Nash Motors, Postum, Wright Aeronautical Victor Talking
Machine. 1929 . Victor Talking Machine -
RCA, , . 1950 . Corn
Products Rening, 1959 . Swift & Co.
, ,
. ,
.

. , ,
19721974 .,
. , Bristol-Myers 9 4 ., Teledyne c 11
3 ., McDonalds c 15 4 . -
, - .
. ,
9,8%- . 1966 . -
Dow Jones 995,15 , -
1972 . , 19721973 .
1982 .
, , ,
, .
-
.
,
. .
, -
. . (

3. ? 67

Whoops.) ,
99,9% . , . -
30- 6%- -
, , .
,
(Ginnie Mae).
, ,
, 100%- .
.
-
. , -
, -
. ,
. , -
,
.

-
, .
-
.

1920- .
. -
.
-,
,
. -
1960- ., .

. ,
, : , -
.
, .
,
.
,
.
,
.
, , ,
. , ,
68 I.

,
.
, -
.
( ,
.), , -
. , , -
.

General Electric. -
, ,
. ,
.
:
- , -, ,
, - -. ,
, .
,
.
. , -
. , . .,

.
,
. -,
S&P 500 . ,
-.
-
, . .
, .
, , ,
. -. -
, , , , .
,
, , .
, .
,
. ,
.
, -, , -
.
, . -
. , ,
. ,
3. ? 69

, . - -
,
.
. ,
-. ,
.
, -
. .
H & R Block ,
, (-
), . -
, ,
.
, . .
, -
.

-
, , , -. (. .
) Bristol-Myers
Heinz . ,
,
.
. 1970- . -
, , -
. ,
Bristol-Myers McDonalds ? , -
.
,
General Public Utilities, Three
Mile Island, , , -
Kellogg.
- , , , -
Houston Indus-
tries.
. , -
Consolidated Edison. .
Con Ed , -
.
.
, -
.
, -
,
70 I.

. ,
Johnson Chart Service, . , -.
: -
, . 1963 . 10 000 .
, 15 31 338 .
10 000 ., ( ),
44 343 .; ( )
53 157 .; ( ) 76 556 .
, , , ,
. ,
. , ,
-, .
,
.
4

General Electric ? ,
. General Electric -
, , . -
,
. - ,
: 1) ? 2) -
? 3) ,
? ,
, The Wall
Street Journal.

1. ?
-: ! ? -
- , . -
, . , ,
, ,
, 99 100 .
: -
? , .
. ,
, , -
,
. ,
-, , ,
72 I.

.
.
, , , -
, , .
.
20% , ,
, . (,
, 50% , -
. , , -
. -
.
, -
. ,
: 11 20 000 .,
. , ,
. .)

100 000 . 20%, 5% ,
25% .
.
.

.
, ,
. , , , -

.
:
( ), , , ,
.
,
, .

. , -
.
40
, .
- ,
, .
- ,
,
.
, ,
.
4. 73

. -
.
,
, :
, 100 10%.
.
, , -
. ,
, . :
87% , - ,
. , .
, , , ,
, .
, , , ,
-
. .
, , -
, , ,
. ,
. ,
.
, , ,
. , , ,
, , ,
, ,
.
, , -
. ,
.
, .

2. ?
, . ,
. , -
,
. , (
), ,
,
, . ,

.
.
, 1020 ,
74 I.

. ,
- , .
, . -
,
.
, ,
, , , -
. ,
. -
,
, , -,
. ,
.

3. ,
?
. ,
, , ,
, , , ,
, , ,

. (IQ)
10% 3%. -
, -
, , ,
.
-
. - , -
, , . ,
, .
, ,
. -
,
, . ,
-
, . -
- ,

.
Investors Intelligence, -
, 1972 .
15% . -
1974 .
4. 75

, 65%
, . 1977 . ,
( 10% -
). 1982 .
55% ,
19 1987 . 80%
.
,
.
. -
,
,
.
, (
)
,
(. . 1930- 1960- .), -
, -
(. . 1970- . 1987 .). ,
1990 .
.
,
. -
, , ,
: -
! , ,
: -, . ,
?
, -
.
: , ,
. , -
,
. , -
, .

, . , , -
, ,
.
, -
(
). -
, -
. .
76 I.

, Magellan, 10
35% , 1987 . 40% -
11% . 1%,
, -
, . ,
50%. , ,
, , , 50 .,
12 60 . 40 .
, (60 .) 50% (40 .).
, 50 .,
60 . (, , - ),
40 . (, . ), -
.
,
, , ,
, .
, . -
,
(. . , -
). - , ,
, , ,
-.
. , , 1,
. .
, ,
. ,
. , -
.
-
. : , , .

1
,
: . , . . .
5

?


-
, : ?
, ,
Goodyear Tire,
, ,
. ,
: , ,
. , ,
.
, -
,
.
, ,
. 1987 . , , -
1000 .
, . -
,
, .
, ,
.

, , , ,
1000 -
.
-
,
78 I.

,
, . -
, ,
, ,
, ,
,
.

19731974 . ,
9% . 9%- -
, ,
, , ,
. -
.

,
, ,
.
,
, -
? 60 000 ,

. ,
. -
, . ,
, ,
. , -
, .
, , . , ,
, , C. J. Lawrence, -
, ,
.
- .
,
. ,
, . ,
, , -
.
. , ,
. ,
. , ,
.
1981 . 1982 . 16- .
, . -
5. ? 79

, ,
. -
14%, 15%,
20%,
, . ,
, ,
.
, , -
, 1930- .,
, .



, , , , ,
. ,
.
19 -
, . , -
( ),
. , , ,
, , .
, , -
, .
.
.
,
. . -
,
. ,
.
, , .
. -
. , , ,
, . -
.
-
, , ,
. ,
5 . .
, 100 .
. ,
. , -
80 I.

. , -
. , -
.
- ,
, ,
. ,
, . ,
. , , ?


-
,
, -?
, , -
, .
, -
, .
,
, .
- , -
, , , .
,
Celtics, .
, -
.

, , -
, .
, ,
-
, . -
. 15% -
, .
, 30%,
, .
,
. .
-
.
, ,
, .
- . -
5. ? 81

, , . -
, , , , ,
.
, , , .
. ,
, / . -
, Dow Jones 1000, 2000 3000 ,
Marriott, Merck McDonalds, Avon Products, Bethlehem Steel
Xerox, . Marriott,
Merck McDonalds -
.
1925 .
- (, -
), 1936 . .

?
.
, .
, . ,
, .
, - -
- .
Berkshire Hathaway -
. 1960- . 7 ., -
4900 . ,
Berkshire Hathaway, , . . 1,4 .
.
: ,
, -
. , -
, ,
.
-
, , , ,
.
.
.
Taco Bell .
1981 ., -
Dreyfus,
2 40 . , -
.
82 I.

. ,
-

. ,
, .
,
, Radice, 95%
. ,
Fortune Systems ,
22 . 1983 . 17/8 . 1984 .
1980- .
, People Express (
) Pan Am ( 9 . 1983 . 4 .
1984 . - )?
, ,
,
LTV. LTV 261/2 11/8 .
1981 1986 . Nucor -
10 50 . ( ,
Nucor LTV? , .)
-
, . ,
, -
- .
, , -
, -
.
, , .
, ,
West Point-Pepperell, ,
Taco Bell . -
, .
, , ,
, , .
, , ,
,
. ,
, , , -
, .
, ,
.
, .
-
.
5. ? 83


.
, .
, - -
, . . , -.
, .
, .
.
.
.
.

.
-
.
, , -
-.
,
.
-
.
.
10 .
II

, -
;
-
; -

;
-
; -
;

; ;
-
,
, /-
, , -
, .
6

.
, , ,
.
Dunkin Donuts, The Limited, Subaru, Dreyfus, McDonalds,
Tambrands Pep Boys -
. ,
, Kentucky Fried Chicken, -
Pick N Save ! -
, ?, , -
.
-
, . , Pep Boys
, ,
, , -,
. -
. ?
Pep Boys, -
, ,
. , -
.
, , Pep Boys, -
. , , -
.
, , ,
, ,
88 II.

. , ,
, , , , ,
1980- .,
.
Exxon , -
- . , -
, , , , -
.
Kodak, ,
, 35-
.
, . -
, ,
.
, -
Paramount Orion Pictures
. , , , , ,
Orion
.
, , -
.
.
: ?
Automatic Data Processing, -
180 000 -
? , :
1961 .
. (11%)
19821983 ., .
Automatic Data Processing, ,
, .
.
,
. ,
Automatic Data Processing
. .
,
( ), -
40 . , -
. 1987 . -
54 .
, .
Automatic Data Processing -
180 000 -, -
6. 89

-. , Automatic Data
Processing .
-,
.


? -
, ? -
, .
-
SmithKline Beckman.
1976 . -
, .
, , ,
. -
, .
, , -
. , -
, .
.
, . -
SmithKline Beckman, .
- 71/2 . (1977 .) -
72 . (1987 .).
-
-. -
, SmithKline Beckman
,
.
19741976 . 4 7 .
, 11 .
72 . (. )1.

1
. , -
, , .
,
. ,
Flying Tiger, ; Apple Computer, -
; Polaroid, ,
. ,
, 60 . , , -
, .
90


















.
,
II.
6. 91

, , Glaxo, -
- . -
1980- . 1983 .
, , Glaxo -
. 1983 1987 . Glaxo
7,50 30 .
SmithKline Glaxo , -
? .
. , Union Oil of
California . Union Oil,
, ,
American Surgery Centers, 1982 . -
18,50 ., 5 .
, , ,
,
. ,
. -
, ,
. , , -
, .
-, -
, , - ,
, , . , -
, Schlumberger, -
, .
Schlumberger, , Johnson & Johnson American
Home Products.
, ,
. : 1)
,
Schlumberger; 2) ,
. , -
, ,
.
, SmithKline,
, , -
, , SmithKline 40%,
. , -
.
-
. , Schlumberger.
, . -
, , ,
, .
92 II.



, Pep Boys, -
. .
. -
. ,
- .
, ,
,
, . -
, ,
, . ,
, , -
- .
, .
Goodyear -
, -
,
Goodyear. , .
-
, , Wang
Laboratories.
Wang, -
? ? , Wang
. , , -
, Goodyear. ,
, -
.
, -
, .
, , ,
. ,
,
. - -
.
- . -
. -
, , .
.
, .
, -
,
, . ,
6. 93

, . - -
, .
,
. .
.
Storer Communications , -

, Storer -
100 . 30 .
, ,
.
Storer 30, 35, 40 50 . , -
-. 1985 . -
93,50 . , , 1988 .,
.
,
. ,
, -
, ,
. , ,
, -
-, .


, , Fidelity,
?
Pebble Beach, -
. .
, .

.
, -
-.
1980- .
,
.
,
Winnebago .
,
Federated, Franklin, Dreyfus Fidelity. , -
, .
.
94 II.


fus,


rey

D














6. 95

Fidelity , -
. Dreyfus? ?
1977 . 40 , 1986 . 40 .
,
. Franklin 138 , Federated -
Aetna 50 . . -
, Dreyfus, Franklin Federated. -
, , (. ).
, ? .
: Dreyfus, Franklin, Federated. -
, , . , ,
, Union Oil of California.
Dreyfus , -
: ,
. . , ,
. 1987 . (. 17).
,
Magellan , .
, -
- .
m, , -
. , , -
.


AAR Carson Pirie Scott General Cinema
Adams-Millis Carter Wallace Giant Food
Aliated Publications Chicago Milwaukee Handleman
Albertsons Chris-Craft Harland (John)
Alexander & Baldwin Commercial Metals Helene Curtis
Alexanders Community Psychiatric Hershey Foods
Allegheny Corp. Cray Research Hillenbrand
Alza Dean Foods Hospital Corp. Amer.
American Family Deluxe Check Printers Houghton Miin
American Greetings Dillards Humana
American International Dow Jones Jostens
Ames Department Stores Dun & Bradstreet Limited (The)
Anheuser-Busch EG&G Liz Claiborne
Automatic Data Processing Emerson Radio Lockheed
Aydin Ethyl Loews
Ball Figgie International Manor Care
Bard (CR) First Boston Marriott
Bemis Flightsafety Intl. McGraw Hill
Bergen Brunswig Flowers Media General
Betz Labs Forest Labs Melville
Brunswick Fuqua Industries Meredith
Capital Cities The Gap Molex
Carolina Freight Geico Mylan
7
! !
?

, -
, , , -
1, , . -
Dunkin Donuts , Reynolds Metals
, ,
, . . ,
,
.
(, )
,
.
, - , , , - -
: , ,
, ,
.
,
. , -
.
, ,

. , - -
, , ?

1
, 1980- . -
. . .
7. ! ! ? 97

-
.
-
, -
. ,

, 500 KLM,
.
.
, -
, , -

.
- .
, , Consumer
Reports
. ,
Charmin.
Procter and Gamble, Charmin,
5000 .? , . ,
Procter and Gamble .
Charmin , .
,
. , , -
- . ,

. -
.

?
, , Procter and Gamble.
, , 1970- . -
Leggs.
Pampers. Pampers ,
. , Procter and
Gamble.
- Pampers? ,
. , ,
Procter and Gamble Pampers
. ,
Procter and Gamble, , Leggs
Hanes.
98 II.

, -
, ,
. ,
1988 . -
- Johnson & Johnson.
1971 . , ,
.
,
. , Johnson & Johnson
.
? (2122 1988 .) Johnson &
Johnson 8 .
1,4 . ,
- 30 .,
-
.
, -
. ,
.

Bristol-Myers, 50 -
427/8 . , , , -
75 . 1,5%
Bristol Myers.
Sterling Drug, -
Bayer, , Eastman Kodak.
Sterling 6,5%, 15%.
Sterling .

,
, , -
. , ?
-
. ,
.
, Coca-Cola,
. Coca-Cola ,
, .
Procter and Gamble Coca-Cola,
. ,
,
.
7. ! ! ? 99

-
, .
Chrysler, Ford Bethlehem Steel. Burlington Northern
12 6 ., 70 .
.
Chrysler, Burlington Northern,
DuPont, Dow Chemical, Procter and Gamble Coca-Cola
, .
General
Electric . ,
1% .
GE 1 . , , -
,
GE ( ,
, , - NBC .).
,
, , , -
, -
( Honeywell),
-. GE . -
, .
GE 900 ,
39 . , 3 .,
Fortune 500.
GE, .
, , GE
, La Quinta .

. Pic N Save
, Sears,
. , Waste Management
, , ,
.
-
Nucor , U.S. Steel ( USX).
SmithKline
Beckman American Home Products.


, -
, : -
, , , ,
100 II.

.
, , , ,
, .
, ().
, ,
- (, , ) , -
. - : ,
, , . -
.
.
, , . -
,
: , , . .
, , , -
. , .
. -
, ,
( -
3% ). .
, 2030% , . -
.
(, -
) , ,
. .


,
. -
. ,
,
. ( , , -
), .
-
, 19501960- .
, .
. , -
, ,
, ,
, . 1970- .
,
, .
-
, -
7. ! ! ? 101

. , ,
. - Alcoa -
,
Apple Computer,
. 1920- . ,
,
. , - ,
.
,
, -
, .
,
-. IBM Digital
.
-
,
. Houston
Industries , , ,
, , . Wal-
Mart, , ,
(. ).

. 13 ,
, . -
, ,
, , -
.
, , -
, .
(. 13).
, 24%- ,
, .
,
?


Coca-Cola, Bristol-Myers, Procter and Gamble, -
Bell, Hersheys, Ralston Purina Colgate-Palmolive. -
, -
. Procter and Gamble, ,
, , . -
: -
1012%.
102 II.


!







5
1



7. ! ! ? 103

,
!

,









104 II.

,


a m ble
G
e r and
t
Proc






. Procter
and Gamble , 1980- . -
. , 1963 .,
.
, -
.
, - ,
( ), -
, .
.
1980 .
, . , -
. , -
Bristol-Myers - 50%,
7. ! ! ? 105

. Colgate-Palmolive?
Subaru , , ,
- , .
Colgate-Palmolive
50%- .
, Shoneys Service Corporation International.
3050%- ,
, .
106 II.







,

s
er :
l-My
sto
r i ,
B .
rd
Fo




, -
-
. , 19811982 ., ,
, , Bristol-Myers -
(. ). , 19731974 .
, ,
. Bristol-Myers, Kellogg, Coca-Cola, MMM, Ralston
Purina Procter and Gamble . ,
7. ! ! ? 107

, -
.
Bristol-Myers
, Kellogg . ,
Kellogg , -
. , .
, ,
,
, .
, , .
, Ralston
Purina . , ,
Kellogg Ralston Purina
.


:
, 2025% . ,
-, - .
, ,
.
-
. , (. 8).
. ,
, Anheuser-Busch
-
. -
2% , Marriott 20% ,
.
Taco Bells , Wal-Mart
Gap
. ,
.
,
.
, ,
.
,
, , , 11 .
- , -
, .
, ,
, . 1960- .
108 II.

. ,

.
, Dow Chemical -
. , Dow
, -
.
1960- . -
, ,
, .
-
, -
.
, , -
. .
, -
. .
, , ,
.


,
. -
, ,
.
, ,
, . -
,
,
.
AMR Corporation,
American Airlines, Ford Motor. -
-
.

,
. ,
-
, , .. -
,
. ,
, ,
, .
7. ! ! ? 109







! Ford






.
. , -
,
. Ford -
, ,
, Bristol-Myers (. ).
. Ford , -
110 II.

,
. Bristol-Myers

, Ford
80%. Ford 1980- . ,
Ford Bristol-Myers .
-
.
7. ! ! ? 111

.
, , ,
, . .

,
,
,
11 . -
, . -
, . -
Chrysler. Chrysler ,
,
.
Chrysler ,
, Ford.
Penn Central
-. ,
,
.
, , ,
. Penn Central .
, Chrysler, Ford,
Penn Central, General Public Utilities , -
.
,
.
Chrysler, -
1982 . 6 . (
). ,
. - Chrysler -
5% . -
,
Chrysler, . ,
Chrysler !
Chrysler, , 1,50 .
. Chrysler
. , Lockheed, 1973 .
1 .
4 . 1977 . 60 . 1986 . Lockheed
.

Chrysler Penn Central, . . , -
, .
112 II.


, -
S&P, .
,
,
.
, ,
, , .
, .
.
----, Chrysler Lockheed,
.
---, Con Edison. ,
( 1974 .
10 3 .), , -
( 1987 . 3 52 .).
----,
Three Mile Island. -
, , . General
Public Utilities, Three Mile Island, .
. ,
.
, 1979 . -
, . 1985 .
GPU ,
, . -
,
-
. GPU -
,
. 33/8 . 1980 .,
1985 . 15 ., 1988 . 38 .

, Union
Carbide. , ,
, -
, . , Johns-Manville
, , -
.
---,
Toys R Us.
Interstate Department Stores, 57 .
Penn Central --
--. - -
7. ! ! ? 113

,
, . -
,
.
-
. .
.
, , -
, .
Goodyear. ,
,
, . Merck, Calgon
, -
. -
, -
, .


, ,
, -. -
, , -
, - , , . -
,
.
.
Pebble Beach. 1976 . -
141/2 .,
(1,7 ) 25 . ,
1979 ., Twentieth Century-Fox 72 . (421/2 .
),
Pebble Beach, , 30 . ,
, 1976 .
, -
2700 - , -
, .
Pebble Beach
, Newhall Land and Farming, -
- .
.
: - - -
, , -
. - -
, .
114 II.

- .
, , -
, ,
.
-
, -?
,
1970- . 1980 .? ,
. , , .
-
Alico, -
. , , , -
, , -
. . Alico
20 .,
200 . -
-
Alico -.
.
Burlington Nor-
thern, Union Pacic Santa Fe Southern Pacic -
: XIX .
,
, .
-
, , -
. .
Penn Central. Penn Central
, ,
, . -
50%, Penn Central 50%-
.
Penn Central -
. : , ,
,
-
. , Penn Central, ,
. .
Liberty Corp., , -
. ,
30 . ,
30 ., 30 .
30 . , . . -
, .
7. ! ! ? 115

, Telecommuni-
cations, Inc., 1977 . 12 ,
31 ., . . 250 .
- ,
. , -
.
. (
) . ,
, , .
, -
, Magellan ,
, -
. , .

200 ., 400 .,
1000 ., 2200 . ,
, . Telecommuni-
cations, Inc. .
, ,
1986 ., 1987 .
.
, .
, .
, Disney, -
Nickelodeon, MTV, -
, CNN
, ,
, .
-
.
. ,
, ,
, .


.
, , -
, .
,
, , .
, ,
. -
116 II.

, , -
, , .
, Dow Chemical Tampa Electric, -
,
. Stop & Shop -

.
Advanced Micro Devices Texas Instruments -
. ,
, -
. Chrysler, ,
, , . -
LTV - ,
.
, , -
, , .
, Holiday Inn, ,
, -

. Federated
Allied Stores. -
. McDonalds -
, -
- -
.
Penn Central -
. Disney :
,

,
, -
. 1980- .
.
International Nickel ( 1976 . Inco) -
, , , .
, Dow Jones, -
Fidelity. 1970 .
Inco 477/8 . -
. (
, , -
) , Inco, -
Fidelity, . ,
, . 441/2 .,
. -
7. ! ! ? 117

, , .
, 1971 . 25 ., 1978 .
14 ., 1982 . 8 . , -
Inco,
Fidelity Magellan ,
.


, ,
. ,
, , ? -
, , ,
?
,
, ,
10% . ,
, .
Procter and Gamble Bethlehem Steel, Digital Equipment
Alico.
, Philip Morris,
.
Wal-Mart ,
50%- , 1000%. ,
Ralston Purina ,
, .
Bristol-Myers, ,
, Texas Air.

.
. -
, .
, , -
.
8

, -
. -
,
. , .
: -
, ,
.
-


, . : -
.
,
.

, . -
, ,
, .
.

1. ,

,
,
8. 119

. ,
. , Automatic Data Processing .
Automatic Data Processing, , , Bob Evans
Farms. Bob Evans? -
, -
. Bob Evans Farms ,
Shoneys Crown, Cork, and Seal. Pep BoysManny, Moe,
and Jack.
Pep BoysManny, Moe, and Jack
. , , .
,
? - -
Pep
BoysManny, Moe, and Jack, ?
.
,
Pep Boys, ,
GeneSplice International, .
GeneSplice International , , Pep
BoysManny, Moe, and Jack .
, ,
.
Pep Boys, Bob Evans Consolidated Rock. ,
1 -
Conrock, Calmat. -
Consolidated Rock, .

2.
, -
. , Crown, Cork, and Seal
. ? -
Time -
Crown, Cork, and Seal, .
.
Seven Oaks International , -
, -
. , 4 33 . -
. Seven Oaks International Crown, Cork, and Seal
IBM -. Rent-A-
Car?

1
consolidated rock -
. . .
120 II.

,
.
, 4 ., -
-.
, ,
?
,
. , , ,
16 .
, , ,
, . -
. ,
,
, . -
,
, .
,
.

3.
, , ,
. -
.
Safety-Kleen.
, C K,
. , - Safety-Kleen
Chicago Rawhide (. ).
Safety-Kleen
. -
,
. Safety-Kleen
.
,
.
Safety-Kleen .
-
. ,
Safety-Kleen ,
? . -
Safety-Kleen. , Automatic Data Processing, -
, .
Envirodyne? -
, Fidelity -
8. 121

, Fidelity Capital Appreciation Fund.


: -
, -
. Clear Shields, ,
, , -
, . , ,
, -
.
Envirodyne
, ,
, , -
.
1985 . Envirodyne Viskase, -
.
Viskase Union Carbide . 1986 .
Filmco, -. -
, , ,
.
1985 1987 . -
34 2 . 1988 . 2,5 .
, , -
. 1985 . 3 .
1988 . 367/8 .

4.
,
, Safety-Kleen,
Chicago Rawhide, Toys R Us, Interstate Depart-
ment Stores,
. Dart & Kraft, - ,
, Kraft -
. Dart, Tupperware, -
Premark International
. Kraft, 1988 . -
Phillip Morris.
,
. , ,
.
,
-
.
: -
, .
122 II.



, ,
31.10.1988,
, . . .
.
Teledyne Argonaut1 18 15 521/8 431/4
3 1
Amer. Ecology 4 2 /4 50 /4 123/4
US Gypsum AP Green 11 11 26 263/4
IU Intl. Gotaas Larsen 6 25/8 361/4 473/4
1 3
Masco Corp. Masco Ind. 2 1 /2 18 /4 113/8
1 1
Kraft Premark Intl. 19 17 /2 36 /4 297/8
1
Tandy Intertan 10 10 31 /4 351/4
Singer SSMC 13 111/2 311/8 23
7
Natomas Amer. President 16 13 /8 51 323/8
Interlake Acme Steel 8 75/8 241/2 231/2
Transamer. Imo Delaval 8 63/4 23 181/2
3
Transunion Intl. Shiphold. 2 2 /8 20 17
Gen. Mills Kenner Parker 16 137/8 511/2 2
1 3
Borg Warner York Int. 14 13 /2 59 /4 515/8
Time Inc. Temple Inland 34 201/2 681/2 503/4



, ,
31.10.1988,
, . . .
.
Penn Cent. Sprague Tech. 15 71/8 20 121/8
3
John Blair Advo Systems 6 4 12 /4 37/8
3 1 1
Datapoint Intelogic Trace 8 2 /2 18 /8 33/4
1 1 1
Coca-Cola Coca-Cola Ent. 15 /2 10 /2 21 /4 141/2
1
Argonaut American Ecology Teledyne, .
2
Tonca 1987 . 49,50 . .
3
.

, ,
,
, . -

.
.
,
.
.
-, -
.
8. 123


, .
,

.
,
. ,
, .
-
.
ATT,
Baby Bells: Ameritech, Bell Atlantic,
Bell South, Nynex, Pacic Telesis, Southwestern Bell US West. -
,
1983 . 1988 . 114%.
170%.

, , .
,
, .
, 50
, ATT . -
. ,
, -
. Baby Bells -
. -

, Sprint MCI
.
, ATT,
, . ATT
; ATT Baby Bells
ATT Baby Bells. , -
, ATT Baby
Bells, .
ATT, 2,96 , -
Baby Bells.
. ATT -
, .
, -
. ,
. , -
, , -
.
124 II.

5.

, -
, . ,
,
. ,
, . -
, - .
, - .
,
. Chrysler Exxon
, .

: Vickers Institutional Holdings Guide, Nelsons Directory
of Investment Research Spectrum Surveys, CDA Invest-
ment Technologies. Value Line Investment Survey
S&P, -
.

6.

, .
,
, . -
, -
.

, .

, ,
. -
! .
, Waste Management, Inc.,
, .
Waste Management , Safety-Kleen,
:
. , , ,
, , -
, ,
.
, Waste Management, ,
, .
8. 125

, -
, .
, ,
? ,
, .
, . -
Holiday Inn Hilton
.

7.
Service Corporation International (SCI),
.
, Fidelity ,
Fidelity Destiny Fund.
- , -
. SCI .
-
, ,
Gannett . SCI
McDonalds .
, , -
, ,
.
, SCI 461 ,
121 , 76 , 21 -
3 -
. .
SCI
, .
, , -
. -
, ,
. .
SCI , -
. 50 .
, ,
.
.
40% .
, .
SCI, American
General, , SCI
. American General
126 II.

20%- SCI. SCI ,


,
.
SCI , -
. , -
SCI
. -, -
, -
, -
. -
, ,
, ,
, - .
1986 . SCI -
, 50% ,
. , SCI -
-, ,
. -
( )
, -
.
,
.

8.
,
. .
, -
.
.

, . -
1950- ., 1960- . 1980- .
, -
. ,
-
,
.
,
100 .
. -
, ,
.
8. 127

SCI , .
1% . ,
, -
. , -
.
, ,
, -
.
. -
SCI. 5%
, 1015%. SCI
, -
,
, .

9.
Twentieth Century-Fox
, ,
. Twentieth Century-Fox , Pebble Beach
.
, , , .
,
,
. -
, -
.
,
,
. ,
3 . ,
, , , -
.
, -
. , , -
,
. , -

. - -
. .

. Inco -
.
- ( ) ,
128 II.

, , -
.
- ,
. ,

. .
,
-
, -
Exxon Atlantic Richeld. ,
- . , -
, , , -
Vulcan Materials, Calmat, Boston Sand &
Gravel, Dravo Florida Rock.
Martin-Marietta, General Dynamics Ashland
.
. -
. ,
, - -
, , ,
. , -
, -
.
, ,
Washington Post. , -
Afliated Publications,
Boston Globe. Globe, -
90% ?
Globe , Times Mirror Company
: Los Angeles Times, Newsday, Hartford Courant Baltimore Sun. -
Gannett 90 ,
-
. , 1970- . -

, ,
-.
Washington Post ,

. .
-
, , , . SmithKline
, .
, , -
, .
8. 129

, -
, -
. , ,
, , -
. , . ,
,
Charles River Breeding Labs. .

.
, . , -
,
. Monsanto .
Robitussin, Tylenol, Coca-Cola Marlboro
, . -
.
.

10. ,
, ,
, , ,
. , - -
.
. , -
-, .
,
?

11.
, -
, -
, , Automatic Data Processing?
Automatic Data
. ,
, ,
? 3%,
.

12.
, ,
. -
130 II.

: 2,3 . Dow
Jones 1000 1987 .
,
. .
, -
, .
, , -
, .

. , , -
, ,
, . ,
.
, . -
, .
,
,
,
. , 45 000 . -
10 000 ., .
-, -
1000 , , 5000 .
, , -
, .
. , -
, 4
SEC. , -
Vickers Weekly Insider Report The Insiders, ,
Barrons, The Wall Street Journal Investors Daily.
.
, , Boston Business Journal.
,
. Value Line -
.
( ,
. 3 12 .,
, ,
.
.
, .
, ,
.
: , -
.)
8. 131

13.
-
. ,
, ? -
20 1987 .
. -
.
. -

. , ,
.

.
Exxon ,
. 6 .
, 3 .
,
- 3 . .
.
, 1960- ., International
Dairy Queen, . Crown,
Cork, and Seal
. -
, .
, 1000 ,
10 .
Teledyne
, -
. Teledyne 5 .,
7 ., 10 ., 14 . .. -
-
. -
, .
: 1) ; 2) -
; 3) 4) -
. Gillette . -


.
,
, , ,
, , , ,
, ,
132 II.

100 ., 35 . . Gillette ,
-
, -
.
,
. International Harvester, Navistar, -
, -
(. ).
Chrysler, , :
(. ). Navistar
, -
, -
.


-,
Waste Management, Pep Boys, Safety-Kleen,
, Cajun Cleansers. -
,
, . Cajun
Cleansers Louisiana BayouFeedback.
-
, ,
. Cajun Cleansers
- ,
.
, -
. , .
,
. Cajun
Cleansers
, , ,
. , Cajun
.
,
,
.
Cajun c
, , , , ,
1.

1
Cajun Tornado. . .
8.

N
avis
tar

,



- ,
10
0






133
134 II.




,
M ag el la n .
-

C hr ys le r
,



,


8. 135

Cajun 8 . 10 .
.
Cajun , ,
,
. ,
Cajun 20%,
, -
, .
, .
, Cajun Cleansers,
, -
-
. ,
Cajun Cleansers 15%.
7,50 . 2,50 . , .
. . .
9
,

, -
. ,
,
.
-
, , ,
, . ,
( , , ),
,
.
Home Shopping Network ,
, 16
3 47 ., 31/2 . (
). , 47 ., ,
, .
, ? , -
.
(
, ), -
, . ,
?
, -
. ,
,
.
9. , 137

, -
.
,
, .
-
. ,
.
, ,
,
138 II.

28 4 . , , -
, , .
- , -
, -
, .
, -
, ,
.
,
, ,
.
, ,
, .

. -
, . -
, , , -
.
.
, ?
, 52%
, . -
-
.
?
, , -
,
.
1981 .
, ,
Tom Brown, Inc., -
, 50 . ,
, -
Tom Brown (. . ),
: , , , ,
. , . -
,
1 . - , , -
. , -
, . ,

. , Tom Brown, Inc., -
, ,
.
9. , 139

1960- . , Xerox.
, Xerox -
. ,
. -
. 1972 ., 170 ., -
. , IBM
Eastman Kodak. -
. Xerox , ,
, 84%. -
.
-
,
.
Xerox Phillip Morris, , -
.
Xerox 160 60 .,
Phillip Morris 14 90 .. Phillip Morris
, -
. Marlboro, Virginia Slims,
Benson & Hedges, Merit . .
.


,
IBM, McDonalds, Disney . . , -
, ,
, ,
-. 1
? -
,
. .
,
, , . -
IBM, , IBM
.
IBM, , .
Circuit City Stores, Wards,
, (First Family, Good
Guys, Highland Superstores, Crazy Eddie Fretters), - -

1
. . .
140 II.

IBM. 1984 ., Circuit City Stores


- ,
, 5696%.
Toys R Us Child World .
Warehouse Club, Price Club.



. -
, , -, , -
, . -
.

( ), -
( -
). -
.
, , ,
, , ,

,
.
, , , -
,
, .
. ,
, .
, -

,
.
, , .
, , Mobil Oil , Marcor Inc. -
Marcor Mobil Oil
, . -
Marcor Container Corporation
. Mobil -
Superior Oil.
1980 ., , Mobil
10%, Exxon . Exxon -
Reliance Electric -
.
9. , 141

.
Exxon , Mobil,
. 1988 .
Montgomery Ward.
Gillette. -
, ,
.
, -
, ,
. Gillette -
.
General Mills -
, -, Parker Brothers,
Izod, ,
, , Eddie
Bauer Footjoy.
1960- .
, -
,
1960-. -
, ,
, , ,
.
Allied Chemical , , ,
.
Times Mirror Merck,

.
U.S. Industries .
--. Beatrice Foods -
, .
19731974 .,
- ,

.
, . -
, -
. Berkshire
Hathaway, .
. Loews, -
Lorrilard, -
CNA,
CBS. , -
.
142 II.

ille
M elv
,

,




Genesco
, ,

Melville Genesco, -
, -
(. ). Melville
Thom McAn. -
,
, Kmart. Kmart, -
1962 ., Melville. -
,
, :
, . 1969 .
CVS, 1976 .
Marshalls 1981 . Kay Bee Toys. Melville
: 1965 . ,
1982 . . -
.
Genesco, Melville, .
1956 . Bonwit Teller, Henri Bendel, Tiffany Kress,
, -
,
, , -
. Genesco
9. , 143

. , 1956 1973 ., -
150 .
, , Genesco ,
.
Melville Genesco -
. 19731974 .
. Melville ,
1987 . .
Genesco, 1974 . ,
.
Melville , Genesco ?
.
----,
, .
, , Marriott, -
, Big
Boy , -
. ( ,
.) Marriott
?
, -
. Gillette, , -
, Foamy, .
, -
, Gillette.
Berkshire Hathaway, , -
, -
. ,
.
-, -
, . -
,
,
.
, .

,

,
Magellan, , , : -
. , , ,
144 II.

. ,
.
, .
, ,

(Smith Labs);
; ; -
(Bioresponse); -
, .
- -
: ,
. , , ,
.
KMS Industries, , ,
19801982 . ,
1984 . ,
1985 .
, 1986 .
,
. 40 21/2 .
1 . -
8 : 1. Smith Labs -
25 . 1 .
Bioresponse -
.
- ( ) -
, .
, .
, ,
. , , -
, -
.
Bioresponse , Dean Witter,
Montgomery Securities, Furman Selz J.C. Bradford -
. Bioresponse
1983 . 91/4 . 16 .,
. , .
, , , -
. ,
, .

. , -
, . -
.
9. , 145

World of Wonder; Pizza Time Theater ( ); One


Potato, Two ( SPUD); National Health Care ( 14 .
50 ); Alhambra Mines ( );
MGF Oil ( ); American Surgery Centers ( !);
Asbetec Industries ( 1/2 .); American Solar King (
); Televideo (
); Priam ( ); Vector
Graphics Microcomputers ( -
); GD Ritzys ( , McDonalds);
Integrated Circuits; Comdial Corp Bowmar.
, ,
, , .
, .

, , , . -
P/E . ,
, -
.
(, , ),
-
.
, , -
? -
. .
, -
, -
(IPO) . ,
, -
. , 4 1980 . -
Genentech 35 .,
89 ., 711/4 .
Magellan (
).
Apple Computer,
20%, , .
, -
Apple , -
.
Apple , -
, .
-
, .
, -
(, Federal Express, -
146 II.

), -
.
IPO , -
. Toys R Us, Rent-A-Car Safety-Kleen.
, , Ford
Coca-Cola.

,

, 2550% -
, . SCI Systems (
)
IBM. -
, IBM -
,
SCI. ,
.
Tandon , -
.
,
, -
, .
.


, Xerox Davids Dry Copies,
. -
,
,
. , -
, , - , ,
. UAL Allegis
. , Crown, Cork, and Seal
. -
CroCorSea,
-
.
10
, ,

, Sensormatic, -
. 2
42 . 19791983 . Sensormatic
. :
. -
, Sensormatic , , ?
, ?
, , -
, . -
, . -
. ,
, , ,
.
,
, .
-
,
, . ,
. .
-. ,
,
. General Motors -
.
, ,
, , , , , ,
148 II.

, ,
. , -
, ,
, , , ,
. . -
. ( -
, .)
, ,
. -
,
.
, , .

, . -
.
, -
, , -
American Electric Power. ,
.
, ,
,
Coca-Cola Ralston Purina.
, , -
- ,
, ,
. -
,

.
, , ,
,
, ,
. ,
-
.
, , , , -
,
.
, , , , -
, -
. ,
, ,
, ,
Taco Bells Stop & Shop.
10. , , 149

,
. :
Dunkin Donuts Coca-Cola
?
-, Coca-Cola,
- , -
.
, -
, , -
,
. ( , !) -

, -
.
,
.
, .
,
, .
, -
, .
, -
. , ,
,
, , .
, ,
, .
Dow Chemical. .
1971 1975 . 1985 1988 . 1975
1985 . .
, Avon 1958 1972 . 3 140 .,
. ,
. 1973 . .
, ,
. ,
Forbes, .
Masco Corporation,
,
. 1957 1987 . 800 ,
1300. , , .
,
Masco Screw Products? , .
Shoneys, , -
116 (29 ),
150 II.


, ,

Dow,

!

. ,
. ,
, .

Marriott. The Limited. 1970- , -
. , . -
, 1983 1987 ., -
.
1987 .
10. , , 151

P/E

, P/E.

. P/E -
. The Wall Street Journal
, , .

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 1988 73


52 Weeks Yld P-E Sales Net
High Low Stock Div. % Ratio 100s High Low Close Chg.
431/4 215/8 Kmart 1,32 3,8 10 4696 351/8 341/2 35 +3/8

P/E, , ,
.
( P/E.
,
. P/E , -
.)
, The Wall Street Journal, Kmart P/E
10. (35 .)
, (
3,50 . ): 35 . : 3,50 . = 10.
P/E , -
, , ,
. , 100 Kmart
3500 . 3,50 . 100
350 ., -
3500 . -
, P/E ,
10 .
, (P/E = 2),
,
40 (P/E = 40), .
. , -
P/E, P/E?
: . -
, .
P/E, 40, P/E, 3, ,

. -
, , -
P/E.
152 II.

, P/E -
, ,
. , .
P/E (79) P/E
(1014), -










10. , , 153

P/E (1420).
,
P/E, .
. P/E, Dow
Chemical, P/E, Wal-Mart.


!
86%

154 II.

( , ,
. , ,
Shoneys, The Limited Marriot,
, , ,
. [, , Avon !]
, .)
10. , , 155

P/E
P/E
, -
. P/E, .
P/E .
, -
P/E , -
. , -
, , P/E .
P/E ,
S&P,
. P/E ,
, P/E . (-
, , .)
Coca-Cola, , , ,
, , . -
P/E .
( P/E Value Line
Investment Survey, ,
. , Value Line
- . ,
.)
P/E,
P/E . -
. -
P/E ,
.
P/E
, . 1972 . McDonalds
, ,
75 . P/E 50.
, 75 25 ., P/E
13. McDonalds . 1972 .
.
1960- . Electronic
Data Systems (EDS). ,
. P/E 500! EDS,
. , , -
, , , -
1000.
P/E 1000
,
.
156 II.

, ,
:
,
.
EDS
. , ,
, . EDS .
1974 . 40 3 .,
, , -
. , -
. EDS
. EDS .
Avon Products 140 .,
P/E 64, EDS . ,
Avon . ,
P/E 64, Avon,
,
. , - , Avon -
,
, . -
.
? Avon .
, 1974 . 185/8 .
Polaroid. , -
, 18 89% .
1973 . 143 ., 1974 . 141/8 .,
1980 . 60 ., 1981 . 19 .
1973 . P/E 50. , -
-
SX-70,
, ,
.
, , -
Polaroid
. -
. .

P/E
,
P/E. , ,
.
,
10. , , 157

, , .
19731974 ., ,
, 1987 .
, 1982 1987 .,
P/E c 8 16. , 1987 .
, -
1982 ., .
, P/E
,
. P/E -
, .
EDS, Avon Polaroid.
P/E, P/E,
, P/E ,
20, 1971 .
, P/E, ,
, - . 19731974 .
1930- .


. ?
. -
, Polaroid Avon P/E 40
Bristol-Myers, Coca-Cola McDonalds. ,
, , .
, ,
.

, .
, -
. ,
, ,
.
, ,
,
,
- , -
. ,
, .
, ,
, . -
, .
158 II.

, -
1: , , ,
, , -
. -
. - -
, .

1
, .
,
. ,
. ,
.
11

, , ,
, ,
. P/E
, -
.
,
, . -
, , .
, , (-
-
),
. ,
.
, ,
Value Line , ,
, , -
.
, -
,
.
, .
, (
, Caesars Worlds -
) , , ,
.
160 II.

, .
, ,
( ?). ,
:

.
, , .
, -
.
, .
,
. -
. GM , -
, -
20% , - .
,
? 8 ., -
4 . ,
7 . , , -
3 . ,
.
, , ,
-
. General Mills -
. .
Eddie Bauer, Talbots, Kenner Parker Brothers
General Mills , -
: . -
. Gorton, -
, 7 25%.
, -
Bisquick .
.
P/E,
, .
: Coca-Cola
P/E. . -
.
Columbia Pictures .
.
Coke 36%, -
26%. .
. Coca-Cola
Enterprises, -
11. 161

.
.
, .
,
. La Quinta ,
. .
. -
20% , .
. -
. .
,
La Quinta . .
,
. , .
, ,
, . -
. , - .
La Quinta, -
, Bildners, .

LA QUINTA
- ,
. United Inns, ,
Holiday Inns, .
- United Inns -
, .
-
. -
95% ,
. - , -
, .
.
La Quinta Motor Inns, - United Inns,
. .
.
La Quinta. , -
, La Quinta -,
, .
, -
.
, United Inns ,
La Quinta ,
162 II.

.
. -
, ,
.
. La Quinta
, Holiday Inn, . ,
Holiday Inn, ( -
, ),
, 30% . ?
, .
La Quinta , -, -
, , ,
. ,
Dennys . La
Quinta Dennys. -
. Holiday Inns ,
La Quinta .
La Quinta
. ,
95% .
- , -
. , ,
.
- Plaza Hotel, 400 000 .,
400 ., ,
20 000 ., 20 . La Quinta -
30% , Holiday Inn,
30% .
, .
. ,
:
. , ,
,
Holiday Inn. La Quinta -
.
Holiday Inn, ,
. La Quinta -
,
, , -
. , ,
, La Quinta
.
, -
Hilton .
11. 163

, La Quinta
-. -
. , -
, - -
.
- , -
,
, .
. , -
, ,
. , , . La Quinta -
120 250,

. , 120
, ,
. , La Quinta
, -
.
La Quinta ,
, -
,
. La
Quinta ,
(. 13).
, . La Quinta
, , ,
, .
, .
, , La Quinta
. -
. 50% ,
P/E 10 . , La
Quinta , .
, 1978 .
, -
20% . , , La Quinta
, .
La Quinta
, .
, (, ,
), ,
, La Quinta Holiday Inn.
La Quinta ,
. -
164 II.

, P/E
. ,
,
. ( ,
La Quinta .)
, ,
, , Magellan -
La Quinta. -

. La Quinta -
,
.

BILDNERS
, La Quinta, J. Bildner &
Sons. Bildners ,
, ,
.
Bildners .
, . Bildners
.
-
. , -
. -
: , Bildners
.
, Bildners -
-
. , .
,
,
.
Bildners
, , ,
.
Bildners , ,
- .
, ,
. Bildners: ,

7-Eleven. , , -
. , Bildners -
11. 165

,
.
,
. . -
.
.
Bildners (13 .)
1986 .
Bildners -
, .
,
. , .
Bildners -
, .
- , -
. -
( , -
), ,
. , , , Bildners
Taco Bells. ( Taco Bells? ,
.)
1/8 ., -
, , .
Bildners ,
.
50 95%.
Bildners - ,
.
- .
, , Taco Bells, -
The Limited, ,
, .
,
,
. :
Bildners ?
,
.
-
. Bildners, , , .
.
, Bildners . ,
. , .
!
12

,
: ,
, . , -
, , . -
. -
, , - -
, ,
, .

. , -
.
- , , , -
, .
. , .

, . -
. ( -
. .)
, , , . -
Goodyear
, Goodyear.
: , -
. , ,
, .
, , -
, .
12. 167

, , ,
, . , ,
, .


, , -
, ,
30 . , -
, -
. , 4 ,
, 15 , -
. .
, ,

, , -
?
: ?
?
. , -
.
.
XIX . (,
, ), .
, , -
, ?
, -
.
S&P, ,
, , -
Value Line . -
P/E, ,
. ,
.
(
, )
. , -
. :
: Zayre. .
: , ?
: , .
: . .
168 II.

:
: La Quinta Motor Inns.
, .
: ? , -
, - ?
: .
: ?
?
: . .
: .
P/E?
: .
: La Quinta ?
? La Quinta?
? ?
? -
?
: ,
.
: . .

. , .
,
. , -
?
: ?
: , . , ,

: . .
: , ? ,
: .
, , , , , , , ,
, .


, -
. ,
.
: .
12. 169

. .
.
(
), , 20 . -
. , , ,
. . ,
, , -
. ,
.
, -
, . ,
. ,
.
, -
? , -
. -
: - -
?
, .
,
, . Procter and Gamble, ,
. 82
107 ,
. Reynolds Metals ,
. Phelps Dodge, ,
, ,
, .
,
. ? -
? SmithKline,
,
.
Goodyear
, ? Taco
Bells ?
Budweiser? Bethlehem Steel?

? , ,
.
, ,
, : , -
500 .
? ,
?.
170 II.

-
: ? -
? , ,
10 .

. , -
. 1987 . -
Sterling Drug ,
.
,
, -
,
. ,
, , -
.
. , . -
-
, .
: , -
. ,
.
, ,
- .
, ,
, -
. , ,
. , 100 10 ,
1000 100.
. 1000 ,
1000 .

?
. -
, ,
, , .

, -
.
, -
. , , -
, .
-.
12. 171

, , . XIX . JP Stevens
1899 ., West Point-Pepperell 1866 . -
-
. , , ,
, .
.
-
, -
, .
, ,
.
,
. : .
: .
: .
.
,
. ,
, .
, , .
, .
11, ,
.
, .
, , , -
. ,
, , -
.
-
. , , -
. ,
, : -
.
? , .
, .
, ,
. .


,
.
. 20 . .
172 II.

, -
. , ,
Pacic Gas and Electric.
, , -
? , -. ,
.

. . -
, Taco Bells -. -
, , -
. ,
.
(, :
? : ,
, . Meridian Bank 22
, ,
, .)
, -
, ,
. -, Pep
BoysManny, Moe, and Jack, ,
. , ,
.
Crown, Cork, and Seal -
,
, . -
. , ?
280 . -
.
Uniroyal, ,
, ?
, , ,
. ,
, . :
,
.



- . -
,
, .
12. 173

,
.
, .
Tandon, , - -
,
. -
, , .
, (-
-
), ,
Tandon ,
, 20 .
, -
Tandon, .
, P/E . ,
Tandon ,
40 . , ,
, , ,
, . -
.
, . 351/4 .
13/8 . .
-
Televideo,
. 100 .,
P/E , ,
. -
Televideo,
200 . , -
Televideo. 401/2 . (1983 .) 1 . (1987 .).
, -
, , , .


, Leggs,
Taco Bell, ,

. ,
, Bildners.
, .
Toys R Us ,
,
174 II.

, . ,
, , .
La Quinta, -
. Pick N Save
. Pick N Save -
-
.
,

79 .
, Pick N Save Campbells Soup
Lassie Dog Food
Pick N Save
. , -
, ,
.
Pep Boys
. ,
,
. -
, , , , Pep Boys
, . .
, Apple 60 15 .,
, . Apple
Lisa -
. , ,
Apple, , Fidelity -
, , , -, Apple
, -, . -
, .
Chrysler ,

. ,

. .
,
Laser, New Yorker LeBaron .
Chrysler -
, ,
, . (
LeBaron, .)
-, Chrysler,
Leggs 1980- . -
, .
12. 175

Chrysler -, ,
, - Chrysler -
, , 3%. ,
-, Concord
AMC .
,
, , - . , -
- Chrysler Taurus (, Ford -
) , -
: ?, ?
? -
, Chrysler Ford.
The Limited Pier 1 Imports, McDonalds.
, ,
, , -
. ,
.
OshKosh BGosh,
OshKosh?
Reebok , , -
? ,
, ?
.


, -
.
, , , , ,
, .
,
.
, , Ford 1987 .
Lincoln Continental, , -
II
I. ,
, Ford -
, .
, ,
(. ). (
, , : ,
.) .
.
176 II.

, .
31 1987 1986 .
Ford Motor
1987 1986

5 672,9 3 459,4
4 424,1 5 093,7
, 1554, 9 . 733,3 . 4 401,6 3 487,8

( 1*) 6 321,3 5 792,6
( 4) 1 161,6 624,5
21 981,5 18 458,0

7 573,9 5 088,4
( 6)

( 7) 25 079,4 22 991,8
14 567,4 13 187,2
10 512,0 9 804,6
3 521,5 3 396,1
14 033,5 13 200,7
( 10)
44 955,7 37 933,0




6 564,0 5 752,3
2 624,1 2 546,1
9 188,1 8 298,4
647,6 737,5
1 803,3 1 230,1
, 79,4 73,9
( 8) 6 075,0 5 285,7
17 793,4 15 625,6

( 9) 1 751,9 2 137,1
( 8) 4 426,5 3 877,0
( 4) 2 354,7 1 328,1
136,5 105,7
( 14)

( 10, 11)
, 1 .
, 1 . 2 . 469,8 498,2
( 469,8 249,1 )
B, 1 . 2 . 37,7 38,6
( 37,7 19,3 )
595,1 605,5
( 1) 672,6 (450,0)
16 717,5 14 167,2
18 492,7 14 859,5

44 955,7 37 933,0

: ** 36,44 27,68

* .
** , 10 1987 ., 2 : 1.
12. 177

,
5,672 .
4,424 . . -
, 10,1
. 1987 . 1986 . , -
Ford . .
, -
. 1987 . 1,75 .,
, .
. , -
, .
.
-
Ford 8,35 . , -
8,35 . . -
, Ford .
(, , , Ford
1,8 . .
, ? -
, ( . .) -
.)
,
, , -
. , ,
.

38 . , -
511 . ,
. , Ford ,
.
8,35 . 511
, Ford 16,30 .
. , -
.
.
, , ,
Ford , ,
, .
. -
. ,
. -
, . ,
S&P, Value Line.
178 II.

10 ,
.
Ford Motor

1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978

71 643,4 62 715,8 51 774,4 52 366,4 44 454,6 37 067,2 38 247,1 37 085,5 45 513,7 42 784,1
65 442,2 58 659,3 50 044,7 48 944,2 42 650,9 37 550,8 39 502,9 39 363,8 42 596,7 40 425,6
() 6201,2 4056,5 2729,7 3422,2 1803,7 (483,6) (1255,8) (2278,3) 917,0 2358,5
866,0 678,8 749,1 917,5 569,2 562,7 624,6 543,1 693,0 456,0
440,6 482,9 446,6 536,0 567,2 745,5 674,7 432,5 246,8 194,8

753,4 816,9 598,1 479,1 360,6 258,5 167,8 187,0 146,2 159,0

() 7380,0 5069,3 3630,3 4282,8 2166,3 (407,9) (1138,1) (1980,7) 1509,4 2778,7

() 2726,0 1774,2 1103,1 1328,9 27,02 256,6 (68,3) (435,4) 330,1 1175,0

28,8 10,0 11,8 47,1 29,2 (6,7) (9,7) (2,0 10,0 14,8
() 4625,2 3285,1 2515,4 2906,8 1866,9 (657,8) (1060,1) (1543,3) 1169,3 1588,9
805,0 591,2 442,7 369,1 90,9 - 144,4 312,7 467,6 416,6
() 3820,2 2693,9 2072,7 2537,7 1776,0 (657,8) (1204,5) (1856,0) 701,7 1172,3

6,5% 5,3% 4,8% 5,6% 4,3% * * * 2,7% 3,7%

18 492,7 14 859,5 12 268,6 9837,7 7545,3 6077,5 7362,2 8567,5 10420,7 9686,3
44 955,7 37 933,0 31 603,6 27 485,6 23 868,9 21 961,7 23 021,4 24 347,6 23 524,6 22 101,4
1751,9 2137,1 2157,2 2110,9 2712,9 2353,3 2709,7 2058,8 1274,6 1144,5
511,0 533,1 553,6 552,4 544,2 541,8 541,2 541,2 539,8 535,6
()
() 9,05 6,16 4,54 5,26 3,43 (1,21) (1,96) (2,85) 2,17 2,97
(.)

8,92 6,05 4,40 4,97 3,21 2,03 2,76

1,58 1,11 0,80 0,67 0,17 0 0,27 0,58 0,87 0,78


36,44 27,68 21,97 17,62 13,74 11,20 13,57 15,79 19,21 17,95

565/8 315/8 193/4 171/8 151/2 91/4 53/4 8 101/8 111/2
(NYSE) 281/2 18 133/4 11 73/8 33/4 31/2 4 62/3 81/8


2268,7 2068,0 2319,8 2292,1 1358,6 1605,8 1257,4 1583,8 2152,3 1 571,5
( )
1814,2 1666,4 1444,4 1328,6 1262,8 1200,8 1168,7 1057,2 895,9 735,5
1343,3 1284,6 1417,3 1223,1 974,4 1361,6 970,0 1184,7 1288,0 970,2
1353,2 1293,2 948,4 979,2 1029,3 955,6 1010,7 912,1 708,5 578,2

1
11 669,6 11 289,7 10 175,1 10 018,1 9280,4 9020,7 9536,0 9663,4 10 293,8 9884,0
16 567,1 15 610,4 14 033,4 13 802,9 12 558,3 11 057,0 12 428,5 12 598,1 13 386,3 12 631,7
350 320 382 274 369 314 389 917 386 342 385 487 411 202 432 987 500 464 512,088

1
7761,6 7703,6 7212,9 6875,3 6024,6 5489,3 5641,3 5370,0 6368,4 6674,2
180 838 181 476 172 165 178 758 168 507 161 129 176 146 185 116 244 297 261,132

2
16,50 16,12 15,70 15,06 13,93 13,38 12,75 11,45 10,35 9,73
12,38 11,01 10,75 9,40 8,54 9,79 8,93 8,54 5,59 4,36
28,88 27,13 26,45 24,46 22,47 23,17 21,68 19,99 15,94 14,09

, , .
* 1982, 1981 1980 . .
1
, .
2
(.). .
12. 179

Value Line , . ,
. -
, , ,
, ,
. . , -
, -
. (
, .)
, -
.
13

,
. , , .


, -
Leggs, Pampers,
Lexan, , .
? Leggs
Hanes , Hanes .
Pampers , Leggs, -
Procter and Gamble.
, Lexan
General Electric. ,
,
GE 6,8%. Lexan
Pampers: GE .
, Lexan,
.

P/E
P/E , -
: , , P/E
13. 181

. , . ? -
P/E.
, Coca-Cola P/E, 15, 15% .
P/E ,
. , 12% P/E, 6,
. , 6%
P/E, 12, .
P/E ,
, .
.
,
. Value Line
S&P
. ,
. ,
.
.
(, 12% X), -
(, X 3%)
P/E (, 10
X). 12 3, 10, 1,5.
1, 1,5, ,
, 2 . , 3, ,
, 15%- , 3%- -
P/E, 6.


Ford (8,35 .)
.
.
.
1982 1988 . Ford 4 38 . .
,
38 . . , -
, Ford .
, -
.
.
, Ford
16,30 . . ,
, , 16,30 .,
.
182 II.

. ,
38 . , , 21,70 . (38 .
16,30 .). , Ford
7 . . 38 . P/E
5,4, 21,70 . 3,1. P/E -
, . Ford
, -
, , , .
Ford , -
.
Ford. ,
, 40%.
( -
, ), 1987 .
Ford Ford Credit, First Nationwide, U.S.
Leasing 1,66 . . Ford Credit, -
1,33 . ,
.
P/E, -
10, , 10
1,66 . 16,60 . .
, Ford 38 .,
16,30 . 16,60 .
,
5,10 . .
7 . . , -
Ford? 5,10 . Ford
, , 1982 . 10 .
, ,
Boeing. 1987 . 40 . -
, 27 .
15 . 1988 . -
, - -
.
, . -
, . Schlumberger, ,
, -
. Bristol-Myers 1,6 .
200 . .
280 1,4 .
5 . . 40 . .
15
,
( -
13. 183

). ,
Ford.
Ford, ?
, -
. Ford
,
. , Ford
,
.
Ford - ,
Hertz Rent-A-Car. Hughes Aerospace -
. TRW -
: -
,
. , TRW -
. Ford Merrill
Lynch Lockheed ( ),
?


?
. -
.
. (-
, , . .), -
.
, -
.
/ -
. Ford 1987 .,
18,492 .
1,7 . (
, , , . -
. -
, .)
75%,
25%. Ford -
1,7 . 18 ., . . -
91%, 10%. .
1%,
99%. , , 80% 20%
.
184 II.

,
. -
, , , ,
.
.
, -
: GCA Applied Materials. -
-
, . .
, . -
. 1985 . GCA 20 12 .,
Applied Materials 16 8 .
, GCA
114 ., .
. 3 .,
73 . -
, , 73 .
, 20 . .
,
? Applied Materials 17 .,
36 .
Applied Materials
8 36 ., GCA.
10 , -
. .
, -
.
.
( , -
GCA) . -
. -
, . ,
,
. , -
-
. ,
. ,
.
( ,
) ,
, .
15, 20 30 . ,
-
.
13. 185

-
, , , -
, , .
. -
. (
,
.)

Chrysler. , Chrysler
.
1,4 ., -
.
, -
, . ,
Chrysler .
, Chrysler 1 .
General Dynamics
336 . , Chrysler , -
,
.
, , , ,
Chrysler -
, .
, .
Micron Technology , -
, Fidelity . -

-
DRAM. Micron , -
, , ,
. , Micron
.
, Texas Industries
Micron, . Micron -
, 40 4 .
(. . ,
).
-
,
.
Fidelity .
Micron ,
4 24 ., Fidelity .


186 II.

, ?
.
, 1901 .

, ,
, . .
, , . ,
, , , ( -
) .
-

. ,
.
, , :
, , -
. , -
,
Pennzoil: , .

, Texaco () -
3 ., Pennzoil () .
( , , -
.
, ,
, .)
, -
.
1987 . ,
, . ,

. , 20 ., 2 .
10%- , 10 ., -
20%- . ,
, .
. ,
.
, , -
, . -
.
.
,
, .
13. 187

-
. -
, -
. -
,
.
Consolidated Edison ,
. -
, ?
Con Ed , -
, -
.
General Public Utilities, Three Mile Island,
, Con Ed (. ).
.


Con Ed ,
.

Con Ed ,
,

!
188 II.


?
- ,
. ,
, Fleet-Norstar, Industrial National Bank, -
1791 .
,
, :
.
-,
. ,
Kellog Ralston Purina, ,

, .
Southmark ,
, Bristol-Myers. (, Southmark,
,
11 3 .)
: Ford
1982 .,
4 . ( 25 ). -
,
Ford .


, -
, , . . -
,
. ,
, , 10 .
20 ., .
,
. ,
. , Penn
Central 60 .!
1976 . Alan Wood Steel 32
., 40 . . ,
11.
, ,
30 ., - -
.
13. 189

,
Lukens 5 ., .
, -
, 4 . .
10 . :
, . -
, ? -
, ,
?
, ,
, - ,
. - -
, -
866 . . ,
5000 ., 26 ., . . ,
. , 866 . .,
163 . .
Berkshire Hathaway,
, , ,
. , - .
5 . , -
2 . .
: 20 ,
.
-
. , -
400 .
300 . , , -
100 . , .
200 .? -
100 .
, .
-, -
Radice, ,
- . ,
50 . 10 . -
-
:
,
.
, , Radice -
, ()
. ,
, , .
190 II.

75 . -
7 . ,
. . Magellan
Radice.
, - ,
, . , Penn
Central -
.

-
,
. .
, (, ,
), -
. , 1987 . Handy and Harman,
, , -
, , 7,83 .
. -
, .
(6,40 . 415 . )
19 . .
Handy and Harman 17 ., . .
?
.
Handy and Harman. ,
, , ,
. (, ,
.)
, -
. -
Handy and Harman, , -
. ,
.
.
, Coca-Cola Robitussin -
, . -
, , - -
,
.
Pebble Beach, , -
. ,
. Pebble Beach -
13. 191

. , -
. , Burlington Northern, Union Pacic Santa Fe
Southern Pacic , -
.
Santa Fe Southern Pacic ,
1,3 ( 100
). 3
-. -
CSX, - . 1988 .
CSX
80 . ,
11 . SCX -
, ( -
), 264 .
. , , !
,

, . .
. , -
. ,

. . -
, ,
.
Channel 5
450 ., . -
25 .
., 1 ., 12
. 2,5 ., -
.
.
-
, . . 450 , .
2,5 . 450 . -
447,5 . .
.
.
1960- ., -
, . -
. , Coca-Cola Enterprises, -
, Coca-Cola,
2,7 . ,
, , . . -
.
192 II.

Coca-Cola Enterprises -
.
. , Coca-Cola
Enterprises . 1987 . 63 -
, 50 ,
. , Coca-
Cola Enterprises , ,
.
, -
.
, .

. Monsanto Searle,
NutraSweet. NutraSweet ,
. Monsanto
. NutraSweet
.
Coca-Cola Enterprises, , Mon-
santo, . -
10 . , 2 . -
NutraSweet, NutraSweet
2 . .
Monsanto -
.
. ,
, .
,
. -
Ford. United Airlines (UAL), -
, Allegis (
). , Fidelity -
. UAL Hilton International 1 .,
Hertz Rent-A-Car 1,3 . ( -
Ford), Westin Hotels 1,4 .
1 .
-
UAL, , , -
. Fidelity
, .
,
, Raymond Industries,
Teleco Oileld Services. , -
Raymond 12 . Teleco, 18 .
Raymond Teleco 6 . ,
13. 193

, Raymond Teleco
6 . , ,
Teleco 18 . .
DuPont ,
Seagram, 25%
DuPont. Seagram DuPont. Beard Oil
( Beard Company) 8 ., 12--
USPCI. Beard -
4 .
-
. , , , ,
, .
,
.
, Volvo -
, - .
, Esselte Business Systems ,
,
. , Fidelity Overseas Fund,
. ,
-
, ,
. -
,
.
Food Lion Supermarkets, ,
25% Del Haize,
Food Lion Del Haize. Del Haize -
. , -
Magellan, 30 120 ., Food Lion
50%.

. -
. , , -
, . -
. -
. , ,
, .
Pacic Telesis of California 29 .
9 . .
Contel, 35 . 15 .
.
P/E 10, -
6%. , P/E -
194 II.

. -
,
3050%- .
, , , -
. Penn Central

.
50%, Penn Central
,
. Penn Central 1979
1985 . 5 29 .
Beth-
lehem Steel 1 .,
, . ,
1 .
.


, -
. ,
, , .
Philip Morris , -
.
, Pig Iron, Inc. 100 .
.
80 . . -
80 . ,
.
, .
Philip Morris, Pep Boys, McDonalds.
,
. -
. , Philip Morris , Pig
Iron, Inc.
. ,
20 . 2 . -
10 1. 10%-

. 20 . 4 .
20%.
20 . 10 . ,
.
13. 195

.
, ,
.
, . -
, . Pig
Iron, Inc. , Philip Morris.
, , -
, -
. , , -
,
. (-
)
.
Coastal Corporation ,
. , -
20 ., . 2,50 .
P/E 8,
. -
. Coastal -
2,45 . -
American Natural Resources. ,
. , ,
. ,
. -
.
Coastal
1011 . , 7 .
. ,
,
7 .
, 70 . 20 .
,
.
: -
, , ,
. , -
12- . ,
, , -
, .
, -
. ,
10- 40 . (
, ,
, -.)
196 II.


, . -
, .
- , , .
, .
: LIFO FIFO.
, :
LIFO (last in, rst out) , , FIFO (rst
in, rst out) , . Handy and Harman
40 . ,
400 ., 450 ., ?
LIFO 50 . (450 . 400 .), FIFO
410 . (450 . 40 .).
, , , ,
.
: GIGO (garbage in, garbage out ,
) FISH (rst in, still here ,
), .
-
LIFO FIFO ,
.
, -

. - -
, -
.
10%, -
30%, : . -
.
, .
, , -
, , .
,
, , -
, . , Jaguar
35 . . 3500 ., 300-
, , 3 .
, , , -
, .
,
, , ,
. -
13. 197

,
.


,
, -
. , -
, -
. , -
, . (
: , .)

.
, , ,
. , ,
-
. , USX 8,5
., 7,3 ., . -
Bethlehem Steel 2,3 ., -
3,8 ., . . 1,5 .
Bethlehem Steel -
. ,
, .
-
, .


-
-, - -
Philip Morris.
,
2% . -
. Malboro -
Philip Morris ,
Boeing 747, -
. -
Philip Morris.
, .
.
Philip Morris -
. .
198 II.

4% 6%
2%.
, 10% ( Philip Morris) -
2% 20%.
(Procter and Gamble -
,
, .

.
.)
, , , -
(, , -
), .
-
, Philip Morris, , .
Philip Morris ,
. ,
. -
, , -
!
, ,
.
Philip Morris Miller Brewing, -
, General Foods. -
Seven-Up, Philip Morris
. 1988 . Philip Morris
Kraft,
, 13 . (
20 Kraft 1988 .), Philip Morris -
5%. , -
.
,
.
,
P/E 15 ,

. , -
, .
. -
P/E 10, .
, :
20% P/E 20 ,
10% P/E 10. ,
,
13. 199

. ,
20% 10% 1 . .

B
( 20%), ( 10%),
, . , .
1,00 1,00
1- 1,20 1,10
2- 1,44 1,21
3- 1,73 1,33
4- 2,07 1,46
5- 2,49 1,61
7- 3,58 1,95
10- 6,19 2,59

20 . (20 1 .),
123,80 . (20 6,19 .). B
10 . (10 1 .), 26 . (10 2,60 .).
P/E 20 15 - -
,
92,85 .
, B.
25%,
9,31 .: -
P/E, 15, 139 . (, -
30% .
, .)
, , ,
20%
, . ,
Wal-Mart The Limited .
.


.
? , .
? -
, , .

.
200 II.

,
. 2040%.
5%.
, , -
, . , -
,
. 1987 . Ford Motor
71,6 ., 7,38 ., . .
10,3%. , -
. , Albertsons
3,6%. -
, Merck, 25% .

, .
.
, , -
, , ,
.
, 12%, B 2%.
, ,
, 10%.
10%.
2%, . . . B -
8% .
, ,
.
,
. -
, .


-
100 . 110,00 . ( 10%)
88 . 92,40 . (+5%)
12 . 17,60 .

B
-
100 . 110,00 . (+10%)
98 . 102,90 . (+5%)
2 . 7,10 .

13. 201

,
B . ,
, .
, - ,
, , -
.
, ,
.
, -
, ,
, , ,
.
14

.
Value Line
, -
. , , ,
-
. ?
, .
: ,
,
, ,
, ,
. . -
, -
. ,
.
, -
. .
, -
.
Automatic Data Processing, ,
, , ,
.
Sensormatic
( ), 2 . 40.
, , -
14. 203

.
, 421/2 . (1983 .) 55/8 .
(1984 .). , -
.
Sears?
The Limited 670 700
, .
The Limited -
,
. Lerner Lane Bryant , -
, , .
.
, Wendys
McDonalds,
McDonalds. Anheuser-Busch, -
40% ? , Bud,
,
, Bud Light -
. -
Anheuser-Busch , -
P/E.
, Anheuser-Busch ,
McDonalds.
, McDonalds .
McDonalds, , , P/E, -
, 30 12 ,
. ,
( 1972 1982 . ), -
. McDonalds
.
, , .
. -
, ,
, .
20% . ,
, -
. , -
, McDonalds.
McDonalds -
, .
, -
, McDonalds
. P/E, McDonalds
.
204 II.

,
:
; , HBO,
Cinemax Disney Channel; ;
, , Home
Shopping Networks ( -
); , ,
.
.
Texas Air , ,
. 1983 . ,
, , Continental Air
( ) . Texas Air
12 . 43/4 ., Continental, Texas Air -
, 3 . -
. Texas Air , Continental -
. , -
. 1986 .
.
1986 . Texas Air Eastern
Airlines, .
Texas Air 511/2 ., -
1983 .
, , -
Eastern Texas Air
. Texas Air Continental,
Continental -
. , -
. Texas Air -
, 1987 . , 481/4 .
Texas Air (
), -
, , , .
, Texas Air,
, .
: Texas Air -
.
Eastern Frontier Air Peoples Express
Continental. :
, , .
?
, . 1988 .,
15 . , ,
: , -
14. 205

, , -
Eastern.
, . -
,
. Eastern Continental
. . -
Eastern -
.
.
Texas Air 1987 .
Eastern 400 .,
. -
,
.
1718 . 1987 . 9 .
, .
, Texas Air 1987 .,
Eastern , -
1988 ., , ,
Delta Airlines.
, -
Eastern -
. Delta,
. 1987 . Delta
48 60 .. 35 .
37 . . 1988 .
55 . , Eastern Delta,
, , -.
15

.
, ,
.
.
, -
.
, -
.


P/E.
.
. ,
.
,
. , .

. ( -
.)
( /-
), .
. -
16 ., , Ford 16 .
.
15. 207


(
?), ,
.
,
. , .
. ,
.


, . -
, P/E ,
.
,
.
,
.
, -
, .
(, McDonalds
1977 ., 1984 . -
. 1987 . .
. Bristol-Myers
19731974 . - , .
1982, 1984 1987 .
Kellogg ,
19731974 .)



. , ,
, .
P/E
, , -
.
, -
. (,
. -
- . .
208 II.

. -,
.
,
.
,
.

, . , -
, .)


, ,
, .
Leggs, Lexan.
. (
20
25%. , , 25%.
50%- ,
, .)
, -
, .
, . ,
Pic N Save, , -
.
49 . Sears .
P/E, ?
( ,
) ( ,
)? Sensormatic Electronics, -
(
, ),
. 1970- . 1980- .
Sensormatic ,

, .

. , 1983 .
, , -
. 42 6 . .
,
.
, .
15. 209

,
. -
? ? (, Apple Computer
200 .
, .)

? (International
Harvester, Novistar, , -
. , -
.
, .)
, ?
? -
? . -
, 1980 . Lockheed
8,04 .
6,54 . - L-1011 TriStar.
, DC10
McDonnell Douglas .
Boeing 747.
1981 .
L-1011. (26 . ),
. 1982 .,
10,78 . , .
1,50 10,78 .!
L-1011
15 . 60 .
.
-
Texas Instruments. 1983 .
( , -
).
500 .
,
-
. TI
101 . 124. 176 .
Time
. -
. , .
60 .
, 100 . -
40 .
210 II.

? ( Eastman
Kodak, .)
? , ? (Chrysler
. ,
,
.
.
Apple Computer
. , , -
,
.)


? ?
, ? (
.)
, -
?
,
?


,
, ,
. ( !
.)
. ,
.
, -
.
-
.
, -
.
50 100% .
.
, -
.
15. 211

-
.
,
.
-
,
.
, ,
, .
, -
, . -

,
.
, , , ,
- .
2025% -
.
.
,
, ,
, .
, , .
, .
,
.
, , -
.
P/E. ,
, .
,
.
, .
,
.
,
.
,
.
-
, .
212 II.

.

.
. .
-
. .
, .
,
.
III

-
, -

;
;
; , -
; -
, -
; , -
,

.
16

, , -
2530%. ? -
, , -
. 1920- ., -,
30%- .
- 30%, -
2%, 20%. -
, .
? 30%-
, -
,
. , -
. -
, , -
.
? , , -
, 4%, 5% 6%
. -
, , ,
.
, -
, , -
, .
-
910%. 10%
216 III.

, 500 S&P 500


, , .
- -
, ,
,
Magellan.
, , -
, ,
. .
, .
-
, . ,
. - -
, S&P 500 ,
.
, ,
.
, -
,
1215%. -
.
, ,
, . -
.

,
. . ,
. (
, ,
-
.)
12%.
4%, , 4%. -
1215% 1619%- .
, -
. (
381/2%, -

.)
, , -
15% 10%, -
. 10 000 .
15%- 40 455 ., 10%-
25 937 .
16. 217

?
1215%?
? , ,
1400. . , , -
5% 10%, , , -
9 .
-
. ,
, ,
, -
.
, Wal-Mart,
. ,
Continental Illinois. ,
Shoneys, The Limited, Pep Boys, Taco Bell Service Corporation International,
.
Avon Products Johns-Manville Dunkin
Donuts. , -
, .
, , -
, ) )
.
, . , -
, ,
. ,
- . -
. -
.
, , -
.
. -
.
1. , -
.

.
, Stop & Shop ,
3040%.
. 1979 . - -
. -
, Bradlees.
, 4 ., 1988 .,
218 III.

, 44 . Marriott ,
. , ,
, -
, . ,
.
, ,
.
, - -
.
.
,
, -
.
2. ,
. .
,
. . -
3040% .
,
. 1020%
, 1020% ,
, .
1400 , 100 ,
200. 500 -
, ,

. -
, , , -
, ,
.
, -
.


, -
3, .

, . -
.

. ,
16. 219

. -
. Coca-Cola,
50%, 20%.
,
. -
, , -,
- .
-
, , -
. , ,
8090%.
,
, , ,
. ,
.
, ,
, . Chrysler
400%
100% .
. Chrysler
.

,
,
, .
. , -
,
, . 1970- . -
, Bristol-Myers, . ,
30 ,
15%.
, Bristol-Myers
. , ,
.
, -
, .
Electronic Data Systems, P/E 1969 . 500. -
15 20 . 1974 .
40 3 ., ,
1984 . General Motors 44 ., . .
, .
, .
, ,
, ,
220 III.

.
. ,
.


, ,
.
, -
.
,
.
. , , -
. , ,
, ,
.
(, ), -
(, ), -
.
, .
,
. ( Taco
Bell 1972 . ,
. .) -
, -
, -
.
, , ,
. , -
40% (, -
), ,
, -
, .
, .

, :
30%- ,
25%- .
, -
, ,
. ,
. 50%,
,
16. 221

, ,
.
.
, ,
, , ,
.
, -
.
, -
.
, 25% ,
, 25% ,
.
, ,
-, . .
, , , 10% . , -
-, 10%,

. , - -
10%- , , ,
, .
Taco Bell , -!
10%- -,
, 10%. -
, , .
, -
- , -
. -
.
,
.
, .
,
.
17

-
, .
, ,
, , .
,
.

.
. -
, , , .
,
. -
, .
.
-
, .
, -
, , 6- ,
.
, -
, .
, .
, ,
, -
.
17. 223

, , ,
. -
, !,
, .
,
. ,

.

,

, , 1987 .,

. . .

19721974 .
Genuine Parts 15 4 443/8
General Cinema 31/2 30 313/4
Teledyne 11 3 390
Abbott Labs 5 17/8 67
Bristol-Myers 8 4 55
Cap Cities 34 9 450
Heinz 53/4 3 513/4
McDonalds 15 4 611/8
Philip Morris 171/2 81/2 1241/2
Merck 17 7 741/4
19761978 . ( )
GE 15 11 663/8
Marriott 33/4 13/4 443/4
19811982 .
Gannett 15 10 56
John Harland 61/2 4 303/4
19831984 .
Browning-Ferris 12 61/2 36
The Limited 10 5 53
Anheuser-Busch 12 9 40
NCR 34 22 87
Waste Management 16 7 48

1987 .
1987 .
, -
. 1000 ,
, , ,
224 III.

. , -
. - Dreyfus, ( ,
, , ).
Dreyfus 16 .,
15 . - ?
Dreyfus -
, .

1987 ., 1987 ., 1988 .,


1987 .
. . .
Wal-Mart 41 20 313/8
Dreyfus 45 16 255/8
Albertsons 34 21 361/8
Home Depot 28 121/2 283/8
Student Loan Marketing 88 62 837/8
Toys R Us 42 22 381/4
Coca-Cola 53 28 431/8
Pier 1 14 5 111/4
Inco 24 14 285/8
Envirodyne 1 7 26
29 /4 10 /8


,
! ,
. , , .
.
1977 . Magellan,
Warner Communications. ,
, -
. Warner ,
3% , 26 .
,
Warner. ,
. ,
. .
, , -
, , . ,
.
Warner 26 32 .,
. 26 . -
, , 32 ., , .
17. 225

,
, .
38 . .
, , 26 . -
32 - 38.
, , 50,
60, 70 180 . Atari 19831984 ., 60%
, (38 .).
, .

Toys R Us, . 1978 . Toys R
Us, Interstate Department Stores
( Toys R Us),
, -
. ,
.
,
1 . . 1985 ., Toys R Us
25 ., .
, , . , , -
, -
, 20% Toys R Us. ,
, .
5 .
1 ., 5 ,
? , ,

. , ,
, , . -
10 000 . 50 000,
250 000. -
,
- . ,
, .
, Toys R Us.
Flowers, -
, Lance, .
-, ,
, . , , -
, .
, .
, La Quinta -
.
- , , ,
226 III.

- , () -
. La Quinta , .
, , ,
. , -
, , , .
, , -
, .


-
, . -, -
, , ,
.
: !.. -
. , : ,
ToggleSwitch . .
ToggleSwitch KinderMind.
ToggleSwitch , KinderMind -
.
. .
,
Warner.
, , -
.
, -
, ,
, - .
, ,
.
10% Sony Honda, Colgate-Palmolive, -
, .
, Merrill Lynch
,
, , .
.
, -
. -
M-1. , ,
, . -1 ,
-, , -
. One Hour Martinizing? -
, , ,
17. 227

. , M-1 Martinizing One,


- -
. ,
, M-1 , ,
. -1
, , -1.
-1 ,
,
(). ,
? , , . , -
? , , 23%
, , 26% -
, 51% .
( ,
, ,
)
, .
- , -
?
, ;
, ; , -
. -
,
.



, , ?
. ,
,
, -
.
,
. -
,
, -
. ,
, -
. 19861987 . Jaguar, Honda, Subaru Volvo
- ,
-
. ,
228 III.

380 212, -
.
, , -
, .
.



,
. , , ,
3050% ,
. .

.
, -
, .
-
;
.
,

.
, .

, .



.
-
. , -
P/E ,

, , -
.
.
, , -
,
.
17. 229

P/E 15,
1112.
,
.
, 25% ,
( ,
..).
, -
,
.



, , ?
, ? -

. , .
,
. .
, , General Dynamics, -
, ,
50%. , ,
.

, . -
. ,
. ,
XYZ ,
, .
-
. .
.
,
. , .
. ,
. . ,
. ,
, .
,
.
.
, ,
230 III.

(. . ).
, Inco ,
, Inco .
.

.
, -
.
.

-
, -
.
, -
.



, . -
, -
P/E, . -
.
,
.
The Gap , -
,
( ), .
- , 60%
,
,
.
, (. 9), -
, .
, ,
P/E, P/E
. Polaroid Avon Products.
P/E 50 ?
, . Avon -
? , ,
Avon.
Holiday Inn , P/E 40,
.
Holiday Inn 20 ,
17. 231

, Holiday Inn , .
? ?
.
3%.


.
12 -

.
P/E 30,
1520%.

,

, ,
. ,
. : ,
. . .
,
- .
Chrysler , , 2, 5
10 . , 48 . 1987 .
, , Chrysler
. ,
. ,
General Motors, Ford . -
, Chrysler.
, American Motors -
, .
, , -
Chrysler - .
General Public Utilities
4, 8 12 ., , -
,
, GPU -
. , GPU -
. , 38 ., -
45 ., 400 . .
.
, ,
25 .
232 III.

.
P/E .
50%
, .



. - -
, ,
. , -
, .
Alexander & Baldwin 96 .
-
. , 5-
. , ,
. , 5%,
9% , , 15% . ,
. 32 ., 1987 .
16 . Alexander & Baldwin
30 .
Storer Broadcasting Disney.
, , -

. . -

. Disney -
, -
, .
Disney
, ,
, .

. , -
, .

, . (-
, -
Gulf Oil. -
, , Gulf Oil.
, Chevron.
, -
.)
17. 233

, -
,
. -
, , , ,
, , , , ,
, . -
, ,
, .
.
, -
, 10%-
.
, 20 ., -
12 .
-
.
25 60%
( ).
18

-
, , .
-
, ,
, ,
, , .
,
.
Fidelity ,
,
. -
,
. ,
,
. , , .

, ,

! , Polaroid
,
1431/2 . Polaroid -
,
. , ,
, , -
18. 235

, -
.
, , -
Polaroid 100, 90
80 . 75 .,
, 50 .,
.
, Polaroid -
. , , ,
.
1431/2 141/8 ., .
, , ,
. 1971 ., , -
Fidelity. Kaiser Industries
25 13 . Fidelity
(
) 11 . , 10 .
8 ., ,
7,50 . ,
. , 1973 . Kaiser
7 6 ., 4.
.
Fidelity
, Kaiser 11 .,
4 . . -
, ,
. ,
25 4 . 100 .
Boeing 747, ,
.
Kaiser , -
, , , , , ,
- ,
, .
. , -
, 40 . .
.
Kaiser Industries 30 .,
4 . -
.

,
, -
.
236 III.

.
, , ,
, . -
.
, ,
, , -
. ,
, , -
11 . 14 . -
, , .
- , .

, ,

, Philip Morris Subaru. , Philip
Morris , .
Subaru, , , , -
, .
, Philip Morris 1950- . , 75 -
, 1961 . 2,50 .
. 11 ,
, 1961 ., 23 , 1950- .,
, Philip Morris .
, 23--
.
, Philip Morris, 75--
124,50 .
166 000 . 23 000 ., .
, -
?, Subaru ,
20 . ,
, .
- .
- , ,
, - , -
, . ,
-
. .
, Philip Morris, Shoneys, Masco, McDonalds
Stop & Shop, ,
.
, , -
, . ,

!

?

,


,






18.


!
?! -






237
238 III.

, .
, .
Stop & Shop ,

.

3 .,
?
? , .
, 3 ., :
, 50 ..
20 , -
, , 50 . 1 .,
. 50
, . , 50 .,
99% , 3 . 83%. .
, ,
. 1000 . 43- 3--
, .
, , -
100%.
, , , 3--
: ?
, ,
, , -
. , -
. 8 6 .
60 . ,
.
, , 8 6 .?
, , : -
?


, , , . ,
RCA , .
. Johns-Manville,
. ,
, . -
,
Navistar.
18. 239

, -
,
Quotron. , - (
, ).
,
, , -
, ,

.
, -
, ,
.

,

,
. 1981 . 4520 , 1984 .
2200.
, , .
686 , .
, ,
, 95 650
(1979 .) 44 800 (1981 .).
, ,
. 1982 . 17 582, 1983 . 5700. -
90%.
, ,
.

, 10 .
, -
, .
, 10 .,
9,75 . 4 .,
1 . -
,
, , , 10--
.
, , -
, ,
, .
240 III.

?

, -
.

.
, ,
Consolidated Edison, 80%. -
, .
-

, -
. -
, , .
, -
.
, ,
, .
Public Service of Indiana, Gulf States Utilities
Public Service of New Hampshire ,
,
- .
, -
. , ,
, .



:
, -
. .
Merck (. ).
1972 1981 . , ,
14% .
?
. ,
, .
, .
Angelica Corporation, , -
1974 1979 . American Greetings
, GAF Corporation 11 , Brunswick
1970- ., SmithKline ( ) 1960- .
18. 241


72 81 .,

.

!

1970- ., Harcourt Brace ,


, Luckens 14 .
Merck, ,
. , ,
, Merck
. -
242 III.

, :
.
( )
. ,
, -
.
, , -
, . ,
, .
, : Lukens
15 , American Greetings ,
Angelica , Brunswick
, SmithKline .

- ,
!
,
Crown, Cork, and Seal, 50 ( )!
, ,
. , ? -
, ,
.
, , -
, -
, ,
. -
, , .

. .
-
. ,
100 ,
: 110 .
, -
. -
.

,

, , ,
. , Toys R Us, , -
, Greenman Brothers, -
18. 243

, . -
, ( Toys R
Us, ), , .
Home Depot , Scottys,
Home Depot, : Home Depot
25 , Scottys
2530%, .
People Express Piedmont,
Warehouse Club Price Club. -
, .

, , ,
, ,
, , , , .
, -, 5 .,
6 ., .
. ,
, ,
. ,
,
, . -
, , 10 12 ., -
, 10 8 ., ,
.
1981 ., -
Zapata -
, Ethyl Corp.,
, -
. -
35 2 ., Ethyl -
,
. 2 32 .
, : -, 20%,
,
20%, , , -
. , 20%- -
, .
, ,
,
.
19
,

-
,
. -
- .
-
. -
, , -
, , , -
.
, , -

;
. , -
,
.
-,
, 8095% .
, , .
- -
. ,
.
. -
, , ; -,
; -,
.
19. , 245

-, - . , , -
.
, .
, , -
, , -
,
. .
, , Sure Thing, Inc. - -
- . ,
- , -
- -
. , , -,
.
3000 . .
, , -
, .
-, ,
. , ,
, ,
. ,
. ,
.
, 3000 . , Sure Thing. -
150 20 . -
, -
. , Sure
Thing 20 ., 1 ., 15 .,
35 . , 3000 .
45 000 .
,
. ,
3000 . .
, ,
. -
.
,
Sure Thing . , -
. . -
, . -
, .
. ,
,
. ,
, . ,
246 III.

. -
.
.
,
. ,
.
,
.
, , .
. ,
,
IBM, McDonalds Wal-Mart. -
.
,
. , , -

.
-
.
- . -
,
.
. -
.
, -
.
,

.

. ( ?)
( ),
. , -
.
510%- 510% .
, , -
, ,

. , .
-
, , ,
.
, -
, .
19. , 247



. ( ,
,
, .)
.
( ),
. .
, , , .
.
,
, .
,
, , . -
, , Polaroid 140 . ,
1000 140 000 ., -
, 14 ., 1000 14 000 .
126 000 .
, , .
.
, .
,
, .
, -
. , -
, .
Polaroid 140 000 .
. , -
.
Polaroid ,
? , .
, ,
, .
Polaroid ,
300 .? .
300 000 .,
140 000 ., .
, -
.
.
, .
, , .
.
248 III.

,

, . -
, ,
Resorts International.
. ,
,
. 70 -
70 ., -
20 30 .
, -
. , -
, , .
, , ,
, , . ,
, , ,
.
, .
20

50 000

,
,
. -
1960 . ,
.
, 9 1960 .,
.
(-
, -
) , .
3%- .
, U.S.
Steel , -
, 7%. -
, - ,
.
22 1963 ., , -
.
. .
, 3%, -
, .
.
1968 ., ,
, --
, -
21/2%.
250 III.

1970- . Fidelity.
:
( -
3%); ( 1%)
( , ,
, - ,
, );
( 4,6%);
IBM ( 3,3%);
( ). , -
1930-, 1970- . -
, ( )
.
,
19 1973 . ( 19 ).
,
16% 39% . ,
, -
4 , 14 -
, . ,
, , -
, -
(
,
).
1980- . ,
. , , -
.
508 1987 . -
22 1985 . -
, -

.
36% . ,
,
.
, 19 1987 .,
, , .
.
- 1960- . -
. -
. , ,
Gulf and Western, ITT Ogden, ,
.
20. 50 000 251

1970- . .
-
: , . -
-
19731974 . ( 1973 . Dow Jones 1050
578 1974 .),
50 90% .
( 1982 .
1983 .) , -
, 6098%. ,
.
1966 . 1988 .
Nikkei , Dow Jones -
.
1987 ., -
. , .
, , ,
, , , .
- -
-
Quotron. 1952 . -
10.00 15.00 , -
,
. 1952 . ,
15.30. 1985 . 9.30 -
16.00. .

. ,
.
1960- . -
, 1980- . .
.
, -
, -
. ,
. ,
, , , .
, -
, -
,
.
-
,
. Wall Street
252 III.

Week 20 1970 . ,
. -
, ,
Financial News Network,
. --
. ,
, 15- -
.
-
, , , -
, , , , ,
, , -
, , .
,
, 20- .
(Kohlberg, Kravis, and Roberts; Kelso; Coniston
Partners; Odyssey Partners; Wesray) -
(Hanson Trust, Imperial Chemical, Electrolux, Unilever,
Nestl . .),
( , , , ,
, , , , , ,
.).
(
) -
.
, Drexel Burnham Lambert,
.
, , -

,
.
SS Kresge,
, Kmart,
40 . Masco , 1000
. -
?
, , , -
, ATT Baby Bells
.
,
, ATT ( 2,96 ),
1987 . .
-
.
20. 50 000 253

, -
.
? - .
, ,
.
, ,
, . ,
. ,
, .
, , , -
, . ,
, .
, -
, .
50 000 , , 50 000 , -
.
, 50 000 , -
20% . -
, , -
. -
.
. -
, , , .
1987 .,
,
, .
, -
: Automatic Data Processing, Coca-Cola, Dunkin Donuts,
General Electric, Genuine Parts, Philip Morris, Primerica, Rite Aid, Squibb Waste
Management.
, 100 200
, .
, , .
87% - -
, , . 1960-
67 , 12%.
1970- . 4060 , 1980- . 100
120 . , 150
, . , , ,
.
, .
,

, -, -
254 III.


.
100%.
, General Motors!
, . -
(Whats Wrong with Wall Street) , 2530
. -
, . ,
, -
.
. , ,
50 000 ,
.
, ,
,
. .
-, .

.
, , -
, . ,
, , .
, 19 , -
.
.
.
: 1953 1984 .
919,6 ,
1565 ; 1973 . 169 , -
149; 1974 . 235 , -
149; 1984 . 149
47; 1987 . 483 ,
42 .
, , . -
.
,
,
, , -
.
.
,
, , -
. , ,
. (
20. 50 000 255

- , ,
.)
, 19871988 . -
19291930 ., .
, 19871988 . , 19291930 .
? , ,
, .
1% .
,
66% , 22% ,
, , -
, ,
.
27% ,
3%, , 1930 . 12%, -
70% . 1930- .,
, , -
.
, , ,
. ,
!
,
. ,
. .
. .
. -
. . -
. .
, . -
. , -
. ,
, .
. -
, ,
?
,
. ,
, 1960- ., -
. -
. -
.
, , , , , -
, . .
. , - . -
256 III.

.
. , .
, -
.
,
. , ,
70 , . -
, . , -
,
.
- ? -
, , , -
, .
, ,
.
.
, -
. , ,
. -
Taco Bell, Pepsi-Cola -
40 . .
150 . , -
10 ., -
20 . . -
100 . -
. -
.
,
, , . ,
. -
, -
( )
( ). -
-
-, -
, . ?
, .
, , -
. ,
, . -
, .
,
, -
. ,
20. 50 000 257

. , -
, ,
. , Stop
& Shop.


, .
,
. ( - -
)
.
, -
.
,
.
, -
.
, .

/.

.
-
,
.
,
.
, . ,
.
, -
-, -
,
.
- ,
, .
- ,
, .
.
.
258 III.

, ,
.
, .
,
, .
, ,
(50, 25, 5 2 .).
-
.
,
.
, , .
, .
, ,
.
.
.
. -
, .
:

,
. 1982 .
, .
.
.
. -
,
10%- .
Fidelity.
,
.
. -
, ,
, , -
1930- . -
, ,
, .
Dow Jones 700 ,
900 . .
1987 . , 1982 . .
, . - -
. ,
, .
, Insilco,
. -
Atari. . ,
38,8 . 776 -
120 1988 . -
. 30,7
20 .
260

. ,
, . . -
,
.
, , . -
, , . ,
. .
Uniroyal , Armstrong Rubber
-. Long Island Lighting
-, Hazeltine . -
Philadelphia Electric Fidelcor .
, , , - . , ,
. -
, .

-
, Fidelity
Capital Devonshire Publishing; -
Ned Davis Research, FactSet, Dow Jones,
Fidelity Market Research, , ,
Fidelity Technical Group, ;
Simon & Shuster.
1960- . Fidelity Manage-
ment & Research, Fido.
, ,
, -
, .
,
. ,
.
, ,
, , , , ,
, , , , ,
, , - II, , , -
, , , , -
, , , , , -
, .

Fidelity, , , -
, , , , ,
, , , , ,
, , ,
.
,
Magellan Fund. , -
262

: -
, .
-, -
Fidelity
. .

, Adams, Harkness & Hill


, Goldman, Sachs & Co.



, Gruntal & Co.
, Morgan Stanley & Co.

(), Nomura Securities
, Sanford Bernstein




, McKinley Allsopp


, Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., Inc.
, Brean Murray, Foster Securities
, The Fourteen Research Corp.








, Wood Gundy Corp.

, Goldman Sachs & Co.


, Robinson Humphrey
, Dillon Reed & Co.

263

, Gruntal & Co.



, Swergold, Chetz & Sinsabaugb
, Baird, Patrick & Co.


, Stechler&Co.
(), Van Kasper & Co.

, Adams, Harkness & Hill


, Putnam Management
, Tiedman, Karlin, Boltres
, Massachusetts Financial Services
, Cassidy Investments


, Webster Management
, Account Management
, Frontier Capital Management
, Middlegreen Associates
, Putnam Management
, Gabelli & Company
, Gintel & Company
, Richard Goldstein Investments
, Gruber Capital Management
, Putnam Management
( ), Massachusetts Financial Services
, Capital Growth Management
, Ardsley Partners
(), Hellman, Jordan Management

, . (), Massachusetts Financial Services
, Rollert & Sullivan
, Knight, Bain, Seath & Holbrook
, Valuequest
, Valuequest
, The Carlyle Group
, Essex Investment Management
, Legg Mason
, Fidelity

264

, Northeast Investors
( ), Wellington Management
, MFP Investors, LLC

, Wellington Management
, Eaton Vance ( Fidelity)
, Strong Corneliuson
, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo
, Wellington Management
, Constitution Research & Management Inc.
, M.A. Weatherbie & Co., Inc.

,
, , -
.
. -

.
,
Malaspina Communications.
,
.
Fidelity Research, Fidelity,
Fidelity,
, -
, , .
, Simon & Shuster,
Doe Coover Agency .
,
. , ,
.

.
.
.
.
Sigrid Estrada

10.07.2008. 70100 1/16.


1. .
17,0 . . 4000 . .

123060, , / 28
. (495) 980-53-54
www.alpina.ru
e-mail: info@alpina.ru