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    Nuclear Zero

    Загружено:

    Muhammad Majid Altaf
    Nuclear Zero

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    Towards Nuclear Zero in South Asia: a Realistic Narrative ‘Zafar Nawaz Jaspal* Department of International Relations, Quaid-I-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakisian ABSTRACT. President Obama's expressed desire about a nuclear-weapon-free world seems unattainable in the prevailing global strategic environment. India and Pakistan have adopted an apathetic approach towards the concept of Nuclear Zero, because the intellectual and political movements in favour of a nuclear: \weupons-free South Asia suffer from unconvincing rationales, inherent contra~ dictions and unrealistic expectations. New Delhi and Islamabad have failed to negotiate and execute a bilateral arms control agreement or treaty, which would prevent a nuclear arms race and decrease the mistrust between them. Thus, they are continuing to produce fissile material and are manufacturing, testing and adding dual-capable ballistic/cruise missiles to their arsenals. The India-specific amendment in the Nuclear Suppliers Group export guidelines in September 2008 has further toughened Pakistan’s stance in the Conference on Disarma- ment on the idea of a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. ‘The author wishes to thank the two enoromous per reviones forth helpful end incisive exnent a he cotey MrHcae Kig ser thorough oven Soup eggs Dr Zafar Nevar daspal is Aniate Profesor at the School of Polis and Intemational Reletons, Quaid-LAzem Unies, slmabed, Pakistan, whore he teaches vari apect of Siratgi Studs fntrationel Sees: Nucle?MissieProleraton: Arms Como Dearms- meat and the Domeste and Forsign Poin of the country Hz i sao adviser on 0% Pilati othe Souta Asan State Stability Institute, Londot. He was previously soars Ecoedinator tthe Foreign Series Academy, Manny of Forign Afar llmabad. Dr Japa iee'sho bean Research Follow at the Intute of Sttege Studies, Lamatad and the blematnd Policy Research Intute, end Freuetty« gus: soaker a the distinguished NATO School, OberammeressGermargr Center of Exatlence: Delnce aginst Terorsm, Ankara, Ley, Pastas National Defence Unverity laeligenoeBaresa Academy, Command and Saf Cogs Queta and tho Foreign Sensce Academy of the Ministy of Foreign Affair, Patten ‘Author’ e-mail: zajespal@qau edu pk Irish Sruties ip nsernarional Affairs, Nol. 29 (2011), 75-97 doi: 10.3318/1S1A,2011.22.75 % Irish Studies in International Aff: INTRODUCTION “The nuclear non-proifeation regime has received a positive response from the international community during the past two years On 5 April 2009 in a speech in Prague, President Obama disclosed his vision of @ nuclear-weapon free world.” This had the effect of invigorating genuine progress towards nuclear non-proliferation, arms controldisarmament and nudlear infrastructuremate- fal safety and secunty Subsequent developments—such asthe adoption of UN Security Council resolution 1887 on 24 September 2009," the signing of the New START arms reduction treaty on § April 2010 and its entry into force on 5 February 2011, the Nuclear Security Summit held in Washington, DC, on 12~ 15 Apa 2010 fo discuss how belter o safeguard weapons-grade plutonium and uranium to prevent nuclearradiological terorism and the consensus achieved ‘on the final document of the eighth Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference on 28 May 2010‘—all had revived a serious discourse on the subject of nuclear terrorism. Nonetheless, despite these developments and ‘others 10 maintain and reinforce the NPT and various regimes and initiatives that complement it, including efforts to sceure the entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)’ and the commencement of negotia- tions on a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) that would ban the Broduction of isle material for nuclear Weapons purposes the tangible utcome is still awaited. ‘Thus, President Obama's expressed desire about a nuclear-weapon-fee world notwithstanding, complete nuclear weapons disarmament seems "Elen ©. Tauscher, ‘Obamas commitment’ cdearnl 15 2) (Februtry 200), §. See also “Rema by Pro aac Obama Heim) Sure, Pag Cn Repub, eae 1 np uence ove. pres oe crac iy. Pre Bask Ober a Prag Betgere! (3) July 01) bereaier ted sp Obama, Remurks 1 Fadcary Square "Resolton 1987 (200) oa the mintensne of international pease std secur and nuclear ponepceraion ani rear camer, wun aaopid. By the Sicuy, Coun at Aaa eting"og 3 Steer BUT he cn wall tp a or hSodUN BOOGENINOISBIUPDEINISSESN paPMOpentiment (13 May a ‘New START treaty requizes the US and Russa to reduce thar deployed strategic sess WW lV dels tn mate ae a fontoring and verification that will imxene practailty snd stability It doer nothing Toweven i prewar maces proerton™or fo ake the Romans dows the toad To sates ‘world without nucle weapons. The text of the treaty i aenuble thine sat gu! 40035 pa (0 ly 2011), ihe en the fal dsineat ht mere Tiling he reve concn, hh ok place in New Yorkon 3-28 ay 30,8 tpn oggalenrhisiem doc a Simbel “RPCORE a0 (OL) Gola ZEN) * The CTBT was nepoisted in Geneva tween 1984 and 1996; to date it has been signed 82 counties and aed by 14M of those, bain ener frit wo enter int force at ben ied by" ete ace ly le cot ol esc rcnoy rurther information is svalabe a hepsfonewtbto orispenals/ahorneare! (30 :Tarmacontroleentrorppolcyrclearterorsm/ales UP tsn9 Facahet- mc (20 aly 20). re pote 80 Irish Studies in International Affairs material (ceaty immediately. without preconditions, In addition, the Central Asian and African nuclear-weapon-free zone ixeatics should also ‘enter into force. The nuclear-weapon states should ratty al the protocols to the nuclear-weapon-zone treaties. Al NPT parties should conclude their safeguards agreements with the IAEA, and voluntarily adopt the strengihened safeguards under the Additional Protocol ‘+ There isa need for greater accountability and transparency. The nuclear- weapon states often cculate descriptions of what they are doing to ‘pursue these goals, yet these accounts seldom reach the public. Therefore, the nuclear-weapon states should send such material to the UN Secretariat, to encourage its wider dissemination. The nuclear powers could also expand the amount of information they publish about the size of the araehls, siocks of file materi and Specific disarmament achievements. Finally 9 number of complementary measures ate needed. These igcude the elimination of other types of WMD: new efforts against WMD terrorism; limits on the production of and trade in conventional arms; and new weapons bans. including of missiles and space weapons. The General Assembly could also take up the recommendation of the Blix ‘Commission for a World Summit on disarmament, non-proliferation and terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction. The aforementioned proposals are some of the important initiatives that have emerged in the recent years for restoring and strengthening an inereesingly fragile international nuclear non-proliferation regime. These initiatives. have been strongly supported by President Obama. In his speech in Prague on 5 April 2009 he warned: ‘Today, the Cold War has disappeared but thousands of those weapons have tot Ina strange turn of stony the Creat of global nulear war Pas gone down, ut the sk of ucla attack has gone ups More ations have acquired these weapons Testing has continued. Black-market trade in nuclear secrets and nuclear materials abound. The technology to build a ‘bomb has spread, Terrorists are determined {o buy, build or sieal one. Our efforts to contain these dangers are centered on a global non-proliferation regime, but as more people and nations break the rules, we could reach the point where the center cannot hold.” President Obama promised that for the sake of a nuclear-weapon-free world the United States would strengthen the global effort to curb the spread of nuclear weapons; move forward on long-overdue disarmament measures; and prevent nuclear tetrorism. To pursue these objectives, he proclaimed his intention to negotiate anew strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russian Federation {in 2009, to lobby for the ratification by the United States of the Comprehensive ‘Test Ban Treaty and to seek a new treaty that verifiably ends the production of fissile materials intended for use in state nuclear weapons." President Obama chaired a historic 6191st meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) on 24 September 2008. The Tourteen heads of state and government present at that meeting unanimously adopted resolution 1887. This ‘was the first comprehensive aetion on nuclear issues since the mid-19908. Tt Sanctioned President Obams initiative on committing all nations to work for a Obama, ‘Remarks in Hradeany Square “Qoama, ‘Remarks in Hradeany Siuare Jaspai—Towords Nuclear Zero in South Asia n unattainable in the prevailing global strategic environment. The logjam evident in the international Conference on Disarmament (CDY' highlights the vulner- ability of the perceived consensus on moving towards ‘Global Zero’* Never- theless, the developments outlined above have encouraged proponents of this optimistic movement. Realistically, however, the movement proposing ‘nuclear ‘zero has failed 10 receive substantial support in India or Pakistan, Both states’ Strategic environments discourage initiatives for their denucleansation. David Corttight and Raimo Vayrynen have pointed out that ‘The nuclear competition in the region also involves China, which India sees asa strategic rival. India secks io gain strategic parity with its northern neighbor, while Pakistan’ nuclear program is entirely oriented towards ‘keeping pace with India.” ‘Therefore, instead of capping their nuclear weapons programs, New Delhi and Islamabad have been augmenting their nuclear arsenals. The region is a growing nuclear hot-spot due (o India and Pakistan’ nuclear doctrines/postures, their ‘mutual distrust and the autonomous terrorist groups operating in the region. Since the May 1998 Indian and Pakistani. nuclear tests, the belligerent neighbours have come to the brink of full-scale war in 1999, 2002 and 2008. In addition, since November 2008, despite Islamabad’s numerous it 5, New Delhi has remained adverse to resume the suspended process of ‘Composite Dialogue’ aimed at reaching agreement between the (wo countries on issues such as Kashmir, nuclear weapons and terrorism.” Thus, such an alarming strategic environment of course, demands serious result-oriented strategic discussion to chalk out a practical strategy to reduce nuclear risks in the region. Peston Seems acu 9 at Se sp nearer ae sine ase ey oF Sars FPBsuB Uni ebrGpe Bene pai mene eR Geo pen aah Nas ee SE [ade i Recah eter woes Ai gale ves widen erates fe arian SARS an res oer Ste See oe a PEE gm rin ne late hve ed ie scrum sn morse ee eh i srleesGcti rata tot Were eae Bore ate Ses aver eit as Daw ete eae en OS Sn ESOS ae ert eel ee ety es rte rian ute iseueabin/eictitgnc ict ity St ‘orange ect tnt se RU ESS EASTER ils poate aa ae Be sesbeh ubasainy Hm cae ASN ay SERS NRG ag nels Gla gh tnd ce See MG ie nS SSS cian Aico (esata ents ee eft ora oth oc Dae ise a pay ot grace ne ma Sa ee eee SSS Sub een aie Sc has ce EORLSS Rein cla te camer ea Seber or atcreishaaececuty ate hele Ba pei etare ae 1” Irish Studies in Internanional Affairs ‘TOWARDS NUCLEAR ZERO ‘The demand for a nuclear-weapon-free world is not a recent development. The very first resolution adopted by the United Nations General Assembiy, in London in 1946, called for eliminating ‘weapons adaptable to mass destruc- tion’ In September 1961, speaking (0 the UN General Assembly, American president John F, Kennedy, warned: "Every man, woman and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by aceident or miscalculation or by madness. The vreapons of war mut be abolished before ey abolish us, Keanedy proposed that to end the nuclear danger, “disarmament negotiations resume promply, tnd conte without interspiion unl n ene program Tor general and complete disarmament has not only been agreed but has actually been achieved’. This program, he argued, should involve ‘a steady reduction in foree, both muclear and conventional, until it has abolished all armies and all weapons except those needed for internal order and a new United Nations Peace Force’." President Kennedy, very rightly, pointed out the undeniable link Between ‘lear and conventional ams ad’ thereby indicated that ams controV/disarmament initiatives ought to address simultaneously both weapons of mass destruction and conventional weapons ‘The strategic competition between the Super Powers during the Cold War undermined all nuclear disarmament initiatives. The end of the Cold War and demise ofthe former Soviet Union generated a hope that nuclear genie could be controlled, The endesvors for an FMCT in 1993, the indefinite extension of the NPT in 1995 and the finalisation of the CTBT’ Draft in 1996 had a soothis Impact on the mclear abolitionist movemeat. All these hopes gradually faded awry, however. withthe matenaliaton of ie 1986 Rumsfeld Commission ‘This report justified and advocated for the development of Missi Delemse Systems Consequently, the United Sues withdren from the 1973 Anti-Balistic Missile Treaty in June 2002, ‘The current wave of public agitation in favor of nuclear non-proliferation ‘and nuclear disarmament is very much a reflection of four eminent American statesmen's bold vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. Former secretary of state George P. Shultz, former secretary of defense William J, Perry, former secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger and former senator Sam Nunn co-wrote an opel piece entiled ‘ world free of nuclear weapons’ in the Wall Street Journal published on 4 January 2007, They pointed out that ‘unless urgent new actions are takea, the US soon will be compelled to enter a new nucleaf era that will be more precarious poehologely disorienting. and economically even more costly than was ihe Cold War To achieve te goul of "a word fre of nuclear weapons’ and to bring the world back from the tipping point, their ‘Vision aims’ to reduce nations’ reliance on nuclear weapons, prevent such weapons from falling into dangerous hands and rid the world. of ‘nuclear weapons asa threat. This vision was endorsed in 2008 by a host of former US secretaries of state and defense and other former senior American officials, both “United Nation. “Establishment of s Commission to deal withthe problem ris by the isoren of Atomic Ene Kelton adie oth report Cie, 28 Sanary 1546: see htipsdatccwediseny an orgldoe R ESOL TION/CEN/NROMI0/S0/IMCINR 01282 paOpenElement (1s Apri 2010) "Qupted in Zia Mian, ‘Obama’ nocear postures’ Middle Ezat Report online 5 Sly 210 sable at, pra menporpmeramero0 S10 (3 Augost 2011) "Henry Kisingsr. George Shulte, Willam Perry and Sam Nunn, “A word fee of mcleat weapons Hall Stee Jura, 4 Jaary 2007 Isse—Towards Nuclear Zero. South Asta 9 Republican and Democrat, including Madeleine Albright, James Baker, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Warren Christopher, Colis Powell and’ Robert McNa~ mara." In addition. the increasing fragility of the international nuclear non proliferation regime was paid serious attention by the WMD Commission led bby Hans Blix. the New Agenda Coalition, a seven-nation initiative on Nuclear Disarmament and Non-proliferation, and Australia and Japan's International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament.” Furthermore, Sectetary-General Ban Ki-moon, while speaking at the East-West Institute on 24 October 2008, also demanded a nuclear-weapon-free world, He offered the following five-point proposal for abolishing nuclear weapons: «+ AILNPT parties in particular the nuclar-weapon-staes, should fulfil their obligation under the treaty to undertake negotiations on effective ‘measures leading. to nuclear disarmament. The nuclear slates Could ‘pursue this goal by agreement on a frumework of separate. ‘mutually reinforcing instruments. Or they could consider negotiating & huclear-weapons convention, asked by @ lone site of verification. ashas long been proposed atthe United Nations. In addition, the nuclear Powers should aeively eagage with other states on this issue at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva « The Security Councils permanent members should commence discus- sions. perhaps within ils Military Staff Committee, on security issues in the nutlear disarmament process They could unambiguously assure non- ryclear-weapon states that they will not be the subjet of the use or threat Of use of nuclear weapons The Council could also convene a summit on nuclear disarmament. Non-NPT states should freeze their own nuclear- \weapon eapabiities and make their own disarmament commitments. «+ The relormed procedures should be adopted to enter the CTBT into force and for the Conference on Disarmament to begin negotiations on a fissile “ian, Obama’ cea postr . ‘The Swedish government stablshed the independent Weapons of Mass Desiiction (WMD) Commision ip Deerber 2003 under th letderhp of Dr ans Bl to cxpore w to redace teas posed by biological. chemeal und tsleat heapons. On {Tune 2008, Br Bs, basen oh metre Kot Annan th co rece ey ray sou rp preneon 6AT WAMDC Report and” "sko hupiinew. 125 (5 August 201) ‘he New Arends Coan wn esinied in 938, New Zend, Bl Ea, Inn Mexico, South Men aod Sweden ae the metas ofthe New Agents Coaiion, This prop {faced about he ack pra fh ce Samet eam. Inport IcBhe ont aroup focusing tgoveramectl evel, onthe nua dsctamen pla ofthe NE, and shin the husea: Weapon sates fo ve up te commitments tha ey hve mae, Soe fitpPaewn auger ngforan Relations cOlaba-fsue Dsarmamentf0-Nucew-aewe aa-coaltion pip (6 August, 201). ‘The'Steen-Natiom initaive mat & reponse tothe acute challenges confronting the lilac Iuiest omproleratton ang ditarwament regime: repreeited she song’ commitment of ‘asralia, Cle, Indovess: Norway, Romacy South Aftca apd the Unied Kiatom To a {hice ‘pile of the NPT: nomreiraton, dsarmainent acd Ihe penta ta of mclest aye hap ofA Anns. ‘etna Comin on Nock Rowton ang Duarmament joi {nati ofthe Australian and Sapaneegeveraments Wane to retwgorae international eos i oxdearasmpvolferstan a dara the content of ae te 310 Proltraton Teaty Review Confrence, sad beyond. Sez plinw ind or/Pages!ea. stpg (6 August 2) rm emo, “Thc United Nations nd scat ina mcleaoveaponice world adem to the Fastest Ia. 22 Oxtoer 008, malable at hep ivan orpiappantoes epecchetcarch fll spi= 51 (8 ped STD. 80 Irish Studies in International Affairs material (ceaty immediately. without preconditions, In addition, the Central Asian and African nuclear-weapon-free zone ixeatics should also ‘enter into force. The nuclear-weapon states should ratty al the protocols to the nuclear-weapon-zone treaties. Al NPT parties should conclude their safeguards agreements with the IAEA, and voluntarily adopt the strengihened safeguards under the Additional Protocol ‘+ There isa need for greater accountability and transparency. The nuclear- weapon states often cculate descriptions of what they are doing to ‘pursue these goals, yet these accounts seldom reach the public. Therefore, the nuclear-weapon states should send such material to the UN Secretariat, to encourage its wider dissemination. The nuclear powers could also expand the amount of information they publish about the size of the araehls, siocks of file materi and Specific disarmament achievements. Finally 9 number of complementary measures ate needed. These igcude the elimination of other types of WMD: new efforts against WMD terrorism; limits on the production of and trade in conventional arms; and new weapons bans. including of missiles and space weapons. The General Assembly could also take up the recommendation of the Blix ‘Commission for a World Summit on disarmament, non-proliferation and terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction. The aforementioned proposals are some of the important initiatives that have emerged in the recent years for restoring and strengthening an inereesingly fragile international nuclear non-proliferation regime. These initiatives. have been strongly supported by President Obama. In his speech in Prague on 5 April 2009 he warned: ‘Today, the Cold War has disappeared but thousands of those weapons have tot Ina strange turn of stony the Creat of global nulear war Pas gone down, ut the sk of ucla attack has gone ups More ations have acquired these weapons Testing has continued. Black-market trade in nuclear secrets and nuclear materials abound. The technology to build a ‘bomb has spread, Terrorists are determined {o buy, build or sieal one. Our efforts to contain these dangers are centered on a global non-proliferation regime, but as more people and nations break the rules, we could reach the point where the center cannot hold.” President Obama promised that for the sake of a nuclear-weapon-free world the United States would strengthen the global effort to curb the spread of nuclear weapons; move forward on long-overdue disarmament measures; and prevent nuclear tetrorism. To pursue these objectives, he proclaimed his intention to negotiate anew strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russian Federation {in 2009, to lobby for the ratification by the United States of the Comprehensive ‘Test Ban Treaty and to seek a new treaty that verifiably ends the production of fissile materials intended for use in state nuclear weapons." President Obama chaired a historic 6191st meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) on 24 September 2008. The Tourteen heads of state and government present at that meeting unanimously adopted resolution 1887. This ‘was the first comprehensive aetion on nuclear issues since the mid-19908. Tt Sanctioned President Obams initiative on committing all nations to work for a Obama, ‘Remarks in Hradeany Square “Qoama, ‘Remarks in Hradeany Siuare Isso4Towands Nuclear Zero in South Asta a nuclear-weapon-free world. The resolution calls for stepped-up efforts to prevent the spread of muclear weapons, to promote disarmament and to ‘reduce the sk of nuclear terrorism.” It calls for better security for nuclear weapons materials land underscores the Security Councils inteation to take action if such material (oF nuclear weapons get into the hands of terrorists. The participants at the Security Council meeting underscored that disarmament and non- proliferation ‘ought to proceed together. They endorsed President Obama's nuclear-ee-world strategy; in reality, however, that strategy was ambisious, because the main Objective was to hinder the horizontal proliferation of nuclear weapons without ‘any practical scheme for nuclear disarmament, Nevertheless, resolution 1887 seetaledprovsionil optimism among the nuclear aligns President Obama was awarded the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize in the recognition of his nuclear non-proliferation stance. The prize committe said that in making the award it ‘attached special importance to Obema's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons." In April 2010 Obama convened the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. He called for strengthening the International ‘Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards apparatus, The communique issued at the conclusion of the Washingion summit envisaged strong nuclear security measures as the most effective means to terrorists, criminals or other Unauthorised actors from acquiring nuclear materials” In this content, it acknowledged the significance of the [AEA and reaffirmed: the essential role of the Intemational Atomic Energy Agency in the international nuclear security framework and will work to ensure tha it continues to have the appropriate structure, resources and expertise needed to carry out its mandated nuclear security activities in accordance with its Slate relevant General Conference resoltions and is Nuclear Seunty ‘The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) the official US government statement on the role of nuclear weapons in its deterrence and defense policy—released on 6 April 2010, had also made considerable progress toward a safer nuclear world.™ It announced that Washington would remove one entire class of nuclear weapons delivery systems—the nuclear-armed Tomahawk sea-launched land- ltack cruise missle—trom the arsenal. In addition, the review called for further Russian and American nuclear arms reductions and promised that the US would only consider using mucear weapons in respons: to nuclear attacks ‘against the US or allied nations. More precisely, the United States assured non UN Security Council, $C746, “Historie summit of Security Counl pledges support for progres on stalled efits to end cleat ‘weapons profruisa” Sacuty Counc ¢19Ist RfcEing (AM. 24 September 2008 lab itp ron or New reds 100096 och (6 Api 2011), "Zafar Nawaz Jaspul, "UNSC Resolution 1887 (2008): idealstic euphoria’, Wok usr, I october 3008 6 ‘See Mun, “Obamas nuclear posure The fll tex ofthe comionigae sd folloing the conclaion ofthe Washington Nuclear Security Summon 13 Apri 201h vxlable a: up awwathitchouse govftnepreseaffice | Branigan aes 1311) Heeb es Wanton ‘unit Communique aon Sri Communit sn Us meter po 4 Pls report i coquted by Congress and is mean to cata US nuclear policy, statey an apetbics Thins rv we ht ach aca Ths tocar oir Pret SBI Chat in 198 snd the Second uncer President George W. Bush in 2002, Only Obama's was abled in full the eather reports wee sunmersed ae excapead “The ful text ofthe 2010 Nistnar Posture Reve Report salable at htp dre defense gornpr does 2010!inucler, posture review Oe pa (21 Ialy 201) hereatter eas NPR Rep. #2 Irish Studies m International Affe ‘nuclear weapon states that it, would not use nuclear arms against them, provided those nations remain ‘in compliance with their nuclear nonprolifera: tion obligations’ CONTRADICTORY FACTORS Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's 2008 proposals were convincing, but they Seem impractical. The trends in international politics do not support such a Scheme of action. The noncompliance with Article VI by the members of the NPT highlights that nuclear weapons remain the curacy of great poset Moreover, the 2010 NPR Report called for investment to rebuild America’s aging macear infrastructure The cover letter tothe NPR Report, prepared by fense Secretary Robert Gates, called for making much-needed investments 10 rebuild America’s aging nuclear infrastructure, He had asked for almost $5 billion to be transferred from the Pentagon to the Department of Energy's ‘National Nuclear Security Administration, On 13 May 2010, President Obama sent a bill to the Senate, which demands $85 billion over 10 years in nuclear funding for a robust strategy for maintaining the existing nuclear arsenal ‘without the renewal of nuclear explosive testing. Secretary Gates explained that the funds were needed to “ebuld and sustain Ameria’ aging nuclear stockpile" and would be spent over the course of a decade” Thus, the Obama ‘administration's willingness for robust investment in its nuclear infrastructure and the NPR's strategy for warhead life extension represent a credible nuclear ‘weapons modernisation plan. As Zia Mian pointed out: For the next fiscal year, the Obama administration has proposed one of the largest increases in nuclear warhead spending in US history. Los Alamos National Laboratory will soe a 22 percent increase in its budget, suid to be the largest one-year jump since 1944, The flagship project is the Chemistry and, Metallurgy Tésearch Replacement Nuclear Facility, which could produce 125 plutonium pits per year and as many as 200 pits per year. This, annual production capacity is ‘oughly equivalent to the total arsenal of Britain (less than 200 weapons) or a large fraction of the arsenals of China (250 weapons) or France (less than 300 weapons) * ‘The nuclear modernisation plan of the Obama administration accentuates the American nuclear force's significant role in deterring potential adversaries and reassuring allies and partners around the world.® Hence, the existence of a huge fissile material stockpile and the Stockpile Management Program is presented as a means to extend the life of US nuclear weapons and also ensure a safe, Secure and effective deterrent without amassing more fissile material and developing a new generation of nuclear warheads. These factors, however, underscore the absence of sweeping changes in the Obama administration's “ut nA te ar a ec Chm uo een Bi of oc agate te ta fags ase ca hf sce Ae oS eee ga ETE dhcnin sup! a cto satis atte ont aaa een sak cleans ce pace ne ig “Ree Bay pees cng me ae ess se mn eas es se InsontTowards Nuclear Zero in South Asia 3 nuclear policy that would be required to move towards nuclear ero, This kind Of contfadiction obviously undermines and derails support for the goal of nuclear zero in global polities ‘The NATO nuclear policy into the new century underscores thatthe alliance sould continue deployment of 200 US nuclear gravity bombs in Europe. ‘Though this persistent nuclear weapons deployment is sulted more to the Cold War doctrine of the 1960s, yet the Europeans feel comloctable with the extended nuclear deterrence policy ofthe United States.On 17 May 2010, the [NATO group of experts sot up o advise on a new strategic concept for NATO recommended that: As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO should continue to maintain secure ‘and reliable nuclear forces, with widely shared responsibility for deployment and operational support, at the minimum level requited by the prevailing security environment.” NATO's strategic concept supports the nuclear optimists’ understanding about the role of ear weapons fr gobalsacury It the words of Sar Saran: The objective of the nuclear weapon states party to the NPT appears to be firstly to blunt any ertcsm oftheir failure to lve up (after 40 years) other commitments under Article VI_of the ‘Treaty with respect to nuclear Gisarmament; Secondly. (0 create the basis or an even more restrictive t denial regime and intrusive verification, to lower the risks of proliferation to additional sates, 2s well as to non states actors He added: ‘I this were the cise. then the new found enthusiasm for nuclear disarmament may prove Lo be tactical and temporary, rather than representing fs serious effort towards eliminating such weapons from the planet’ SOUTH AS(A: DESTABILISING MILITARY ASYMMETRY In the aftermath of the Cold War, New Delhi realistically readjusted its foreign and strategic policy and has begun to work closely with the governments in Washington, Tel Aviv and other countries advanced in the field of nuclear and space technologies. It altered its previous international cutlook and has adopted policies that were suitable to Washington's post-Cold War global agenda. This shift in New Delhi's policies has hiad a constructive impact on India's political, economic and strategic stature in plobal politics. The George W. Bush administration committed practically to support New Delhi's drive for "Great Pawer status in the twenty-first century. Numerous bilateral agreements were approved and implemented. For example, Washingion finalised the Indo- US nuclear-deal for a farsreaching strategic partnership in October 2008." “eg hATO Pate lana Dion ‘MAT 920 Asura mam xen ATO tials iy‘ ee eee re comers 9 Shrzn, ‘Nuclear ze: the shining ctyon the hil’ in VR. Raghavon(e), Pia end "Nocler rr Tits ts offically called m 123 Agreement’ (named afer Section 123 ofthe United States ‘Atomic Ese’py Act of 1954. which deals wih cooperation wth other nations and establishes an roarent for cooperation as a preequiate for racer deals between the US ond day otber ion) but vs peneralyrefere fo a8 the US-India Cel Nuclear Cagperstion st Indo-US ‘ucla deal. For fhe deat of the deal sx Zafar Navas inspal. ‘Indo-US tusear ce aler.ng lobol eter order Siratepe States 27 (Sand 3) (Summer ahd Auturmn 2008), 18-36 25-22 8 Irish Seaties in International Affairs Since then, the United States and India have been gradually cementing their strategic partnership. The partnership has been destined to bring about a revolution in Indian military affairs and make India’s military muscle stronger. Indeed, India is acquiring conventional military power more than sufficient to defeat Pakistan's conventional military force * Importantly, political and military competition with India remains the centrepiece of Pakistan's foreign and strategic policy since the time of the founding of the state of Pakistan in 1947 to date. In over 60 years of independence, Pakistan has fought three (and « half) wars with India,” These wars and unlimited border skirmishes, the perennial Kashmir dispute, active involvement in each other’ intrastate confiety the contesting regional and slobal outlook and, above all, power asymmetry, oblige Islamabad to not remain oblivious to India’s increasing military strength. The Pakistani defense planners seem convinced that through nuclear weapons capability, they would be able to accomplish various sintgic objectives such an, deter the adversary from contemplating aggression: increase bargnining leverage; reduce depen- dence on allies; and acquire military independence by reducing dependence on external sources of military hardware, Therefore, the nuclear deterrence Capability vis-a-vis India’s nuclear and superior conventional capability has Ben the pie mover ofthe Pakistan! naar weapon program sine he eaiy 1 Pakistan's defence posture remains Indo-centric despite the dramatic shifts inthe global and regional politics in the last two decades. The United States has been contributing constructively in New Delhi's drive for great power, and also Ceaging in strategie partnership with Pakistan. Neverthees, Washington strategic partnership with both New Delhi and Islamabad’ has failed to ransiorm the belligerent neighbours bilateral relations. Bolh sides treat each other as strategic competitors in South Asia ‘The, implementation of the 2008 muclear deal has cemented the Indo-US strategic partnership, opened India's gigantic economic market for American investinent and encouraged New Delhi to emerge as a balance in southern Asia against China, The United States policy to checkmate China and mould the Asian security architecture could have serious regional and international The Ladin Chit of Army Stall, General NC. Vij unvied the Coli Stat dctrine during the Army Commanders Conference on 38 April 20M This dociane vista @ trace ‘Soci which recente estractring of the Indian Army and reo te Todisn Army ‘fente pret eway from the lage Strike cong into ght sms dvian-ared i fate pots IBC thal combine mechanised ntanty arilery and armour These) {Boups would te prepared to launch malipc strikes inf Pakistan along dierent aes of advance Feedtatoy ts cefenave and oflennve compe The round operations of the TBS requre fee ih hw a oper fam hina A Force anhial atone ope mobi fre suppor’ Th asditon the holding corps are redesignated piv corp bolstered addtional ermour snd artery "This would low them concutrety 10 Jan defeave posers and undertake hmted oflenaive operations as nesrsary. The major ropa of Cold Start ison the speed of bah deployment and operations to mutpy India’s sabfgving ipa senat Peban: Important the ection of ts doce rues JPesnve Indian ary tigi See Walter Cr Ladwig "A cold start for hot wert The ihion ‘Army's sew tinted wer docsneernaional Secwrty 329) (Wie 200708). 138-90, 136 {643 se ato Gurmect Kana, “Srke fst and hard Army doctrine undergoes chang a he sckar ere Pubune 23 June 2006, "nda and Paka ought te wars in 1948, 1985, 171 and a half wan 1998.The war {971 Roa eden of Fastan, eit ta ied ¢ rt seme of nea ‘stan dnd grster determnaton to ind a say to overcome India ralary roperon, ‘Ghrstoph Bluth, dia and Pakistan: a cse of aymunetiruccar deterrence Korer Journal of ‘Beene Anas 2) (September 2010) 387 A0e 387 Jnsout—Towands Nuclear Zero tn South Asia 8s strategie repercussions. The policy has had the effect of undermining the ‘miclear non-proliferation regime, intensifying the inseeurity of Pakistan and onping the Chinese and Russians, The Indg-US strate partnership cannot be ignored by Pakistan and China. The laters political, mltary and economic spabilities insulate it from the negativity of the Indo-US strategie partnership in the current prevalent strategic environment and may continue (odo so for the near future, The vulnerabilities of the former were, however, multiplied as.a result of America’s inclination towards India. Indeed, Pakistani authorities are concerned about New Delhi's growing conventional power projection capabil- ities, its adoption of limited war plans (such as the Cold Start doctrine) and its closer ties to Washington.” Though Washington declared, and on different ‘occasions has reiterated, that its strategie partnership with India would not ‘undermine its relations with Islamabad, the constructive and boosting effect of the strategic partnership on India's military muscle carries with it destabilising strategic dynamics. “Thus, the Indo-US strategic partnership, the New Delhi and Tel_ Aviv defense ‘partnership and Moscow's colossal military sales to New Delhi amply the existing ita asymmetry between India and Pakistan, India’s missile (both ollensive and defensive) buld-up prow. ular know-how, Air Force, te. ae important areas of concern for Islamabad, and therefore f investment or supply in these areas alarms i. It is a known fact that without the assistance of the’ United States, Russian Federation and Israel, the Indian defence industry would remain backward and pon-producive These sates miltary-technology transfer, weapons sales and. Indian reverse engineering gure collectively have qualitative and quantitve produce elfess on 'iniltary infrastructure, For instance, Israels arvow-missle transfer 0 ance to New Delhi in the realm of space research and development revolutionised India's Agni mult-series ballistic missle project. In addition, it was ceported inthe Indian press that New Delhi would purchase the Patriot-3 AntieMissile System. The system is expected to include missile launchers and upgraded AN/MPQ-65 radar to enhance detection in high- cluter environments, The Indian Ai Force bas ato expreed is interes in & ten US C-17 military transport aircraft, The aircraft was on show Ting th October 3008 Mo: US traning eves IAB Table 1 assists us in understanding the war-fighting capabilities of China, India and Pakistan. ELIMINATING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SOUTH ASIA: AT ODDS WITH ACTUALITY The intellectual and political movements in favor of « nuclear-weapon-free South Asia sufler from unconvincing rationales, inherent contradictions and tunrealistic expectations. They have failed to bring about any shift in the pereeplons of India-Pakistan nuclear optimists Interestingly. te United Sates ‘and like-minded states have been facilitating India in its pursuit of peaceful use ‘of nuclear technology. despite its categorical rejection of the existing nuclear ‘non-proliferation regime, Washingion and its partners singled out Pakistan and ‘Michael Ksepon, ‘The limits of infuence: US-Pukistani nuclear relations’, Naprolfraion Review 8 (1), (Meh 2011), 43-101. 85 The Tare Miltary Tndustin (IMI) company had signe deal to build five factories in lia to produce ordnance and ammunition “ang the ind spec frees and Army were ‘apecily dependent on arel equipment. Otice Irs lrms (Lact Aerospace ladasts ta [Rach were ertea othe facan Slence modernisation process See Stephen P Cohen and Saml Danpupts, omnia suman Incas maltose modetncaton (Wathngto3, DC. 2010), 38 86 ‘rsh Studies in International Affaire ‘Table 1. Conventional military capabilities of China, India and Pakistan. Detense balget le USS 2008 Acne Gop Rear oops Population china 6.10 22385000 song Laanaageas India 25300 281200, 1.155.000 1,147.995898 Pakiton 3.3600 + 297m) ‘1700 : 762080 (EMA® fom the US) SEMA = Foreign miltary asitanoe ‘Sowce: ternational Insts for Strategic Studies, The miltary balance 2009 (London, 200, tejected the proposal fora Pakistan-United States nuclear deal on th lines of the Indo-U's nuclear deal Ironia, without bestowing any favour on Pakistan Jn the nuclear realm, aterational on-probferaniss expect ito support tie programme of work adopted by the CD on 29 May 2008. This work plan Ricedes convening a working group to sart FMICT negotiations: substantive

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