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Evaluation Case
Study
Background
IOTA Technologies is launching the Systematic Edge Derivatives Fund, a hedge fund, and has
been investigating candidate options trading strategies. Recently, Andrew Falde, a professional
options trader affiliated with SMB Capital, recommended the factorial analysis of a weekly
butterfly trade, the Road Trip, developed by well-known trader Dan Harveyi, which IOTA has
undertaken. This document presents findings to date with two objectives, to share 1)
recommendations for configuration of this trade and 2) one hedge funds approach to selecting
and evaluating option trades.
All testing and optimization results are measured with a mathematically-based Desirability
Index (DI)iv. This is crucial for comparing and selecting strategies. This proprietary index
includes four metrics: win rate, ratio of average trade win to average loss, statistically-
determined probability of positive average return and annual return on investment.
1. Using QuantyCarlo, first define and test the baseline strategy as defined in the
developers trading plan. This baseline is crucial to evaluating possible trade
improvements that will emerge from application of the methodology.
2. Develop a set of factorial combinations for trade parameters, such as entry days to
expiration, placement of position legs or maximum loss limits, and evaluate their impact
on trade performance, as measured by the IOTA DI. At this stage, adjustments, if any,
are not studied; the goal is to first determine how well the trade can perform without
them.
3. Model and optimize the trade, resulting in the identification of a combination, that is, a
set of parameter values, that delivers statistically-superior performance, again as
measured by the DI.
4. Compare the results to date with other current and candidate strategies to determine if
this candidate bears further investigation. If so, and if the original trading plan included
adjustments, these may be evaluated with the above procedure. The goal will be to
Baseline Results
As discussed above, the first step in the IOTA evaluation process is to create a digital version
of the Road Trip trading plan baseline (without adjustments) in QuantyCarlo and then test it.
The tested trade configuration is shown in the table below. (See Appendix A for results
summary.)
Tested over 2014 and 2015, Road Trips IOTA Desirability Index value was 0.866, on a 0.0
1.0 scale. This is an excellent score and would likely quality this trade for SEDF consideration.
However, based on IOTAs experience with trade optimization, improved performance can be
achieved.
Factorial Analysis
Factorial Analysis (FA) is a well-established methodology for improving products and processes and has
been applied successfully in a wide range of settings, from agriculture to pharmaceuticals. Its basic
premise is simple: identify the parameters (AKA factors) that affect the product or process, in this case
options trading, specify an array of values for each, and then test each unique combination of those
values. Importantly, FA discovers not only the impact of each factor, but also their interactions, as
opposed to one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) testing.
Given the number of factors in the Road Trip plan, a series of FA studies were undertaken. The table
below lists the factors and their respective values for one of the studies, as well as the value that was
associated with the best-performing combination. Note most of these are consistent with the baseline,
with two exceptions: higher dollar limit for butterfly debit and and target profit factor.
In addition, the analysis to date does not show any benefit from two of the rules included in the
baseline plan: 1) entering only on a down or flat day in terms of SPX price and 2) adding a far OTM put
(teenie) at entry.
Next Steps
As mentioned above, this analysis is ongoing, and the findings should be treated as preliminary. The
next step is to optimize the factorial findings, which entails extensive testing of the results with out-of-
sample data to avoid possible curve-fitting and identify statistically superior factor values. Generally,
the combination(s) that result include factor values not appearing in the factorial testing, which allows
for further improvement in performance.
Based on the optimization results of the non-adjusted trade, adjustment rules as proposed in the
trading plan will be added to the QC plan and tested using the procedure above. IOTAs experience to
date indicates developing adjustment rules that reliably deliver statistically significant improved
performance is challenging, particularly if the non-adjusted strategy has been optimized.
IOTA will share the above results with SMB when they are available.