Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Also of Note
Long model: HUN at a conference said it expects 4Q17 to be better than 4Q16 and to reach investment credit grade very soon.
Short sale model: PTLA was added to a sell side firms small- to mid-cap focus list.
Short sale model: SUM announces 1.4-to-1 stock split effective on the December 8 close.
Return Data
For the month to date the Core Long Model portfolio is up +4.58% on a simple cumulative return basis (sum of daily returns). This compares to the S&P 500 up +2.01%, the S&P
1500 Composite up +2.06%, and the Russell 2000 up +2.28%. The Core Long/Short Model is up +5.07%.
Ascendere Associates Model Portfolio Stock Selections Are Presaging Major Sell Side Analyst Actions
MTD 11 stocks in the long model have received 32 positive price target revisions, and 6 stocks have received 8 ratings upgrades from sell side firms, led by Facebook, Inc. (FB).
MTD 5 stocks in the short sale model have received 17 negative price target revisions, and 5 stocks have received 8 ratings downgrades, led by Under Armour, Inc. (UAA).
THO was added to the theoretical long model portfolio on October 5, 2017 at the dividend-adjusted stock price of $126.76 (see 35 Stocks for October 2017). The
stock was retained in the long model on October 31, 2017 (36 Stocks for November 2017). Since October 5, the stock is up 21.8%. Below is a summary of the
companys ranking profile as of October 31, 2017.
Ascendere Ranking Price 10/31/17 136.22 Cash 223 EV/LTM EBITDA 11.5
Shares 53 Debt 145 Price/Book 4.5
Market Cap 7,194 Other -
5 = Best Rank Enterprise Value 7,563
Relative Value 4
Operating Momentum 4 CY1 Consensus EPS Est. $ 7.73 CY1 PE 17.6 Total Capital $ 1,722
Analyst Revisions Mom 5 CY2 Consensus EPS Est. $ 8.49 CY2 PE 16.0 Debt/Capital -5%
Fundamental Quality 4 Latest Annualized Dividend $ 1.32 Div Yield 1.0% Debt/Enterprise Value 2%
Source: Capital IQ data and estimates, and Ascendere Associates LLC data and estimates.
Ascendere Ranking Price 10/31/17 44.31 Cash 5,428 EV/LTM EBITDA 7.0
Shares 1,187 Debt 11,155 Price/Book 2.6
Market Cap 52,596 Other -
5 = Best Rank Enterprise Value 69,179
Relative Value 5
Operating Momentum 4 CY1 Consensus EPS Est. $ 6.71 CY1 PE 6.6 Total Capital $ 30,625
Analyst Revisions Mom 5 CY2 Consensus EPS Est. $ 7.42 CY2 PE 6.0 Debt/Capital 19%
Fundamental Quality 4 Latest Annualized Dividend $ - Div Yield 0.0% Debt/Enterprise Value 16%
Source: Capital IQ data and estimates, and Ascendere Associates LLC data and estimates.
Ascendere Ranking Price 10/31/17 33.25 Cash 589 EV/LTM EBITDA 15.4
Shares 246 Debt 3,907 Price/Book 6.1
Market Cap 8,173 Other -
5 = Best Rank Enterprise Value 12,669
Relative Value 2
Operating Momentum 2 CY1 Consensus EPS Est. $ 1.13 CY1 PE 29.4 Total Capital $ 5,341
Analyst Revisions Mom 1 CY2 Consensus EPS Est. $ 1.40 CY2 PE 23.8 Debt/Capital 62%
Fundamental Quality 1 Latest Annualized Dividend $ - Div Yield 0.0% Debt/Enterprise Value 31%
Source: Capital IQ data and estimates, and Ascendere Associates LLC data and estimates.
Daily MTD Daily Daily Daily MTD MTD MTD Cash Cash
Date ^VIX S&P 500 S&P 500 Long* Short Dollar Neutral Long* Short* Neutral* Long Short
11/01/17 10.20 0.16% 0.16% -0.03% -0.79% 0.76% -0.03% -0.79% 0.76% 0% 0%
11/02/17 9.93 0.02% 0.18% 0.27% -1.11% 1.38% 0.24% -1.89% 2.13% 0% 0%
11/03/17 9.14 0.31% 0.49% 0.06% 0.81% -0.76% 0.29% -1.08% 1.37% 0% 0%
11/06/17 9.40 0.13% 0.62% 0.29% 0.12% 0.17% 0.59% -0.96% 1.55% 0% 0%
11/07/17 9.89 -0.02% 0.60% -1.08% -0.41% -0.67% -0.49% -1.36% 0.88% 0% 0%
11/08/17 9.78 0.14% 0.74% 0.28% -0.18% 0.45% -0.21% -1.54% 1.33% 0% 0%
11/09/17 10.50 -0.38% 0.36% -0.55% -0.51% -0.03% -0.76% -2.06% 1.30% 0% 0%
11/10/17 11.29 -0.09% 0.27% 0.10% -0.05% 0.14% -0.66% -2.11% 1.45% 0% 0%
11/13/17 11.50 0.10% 0.37% 0.18% 0.80% -0.62% -0.48% -1.30% 0.83% 0% 0%
11/14/17 11.59 -0.23% 0.14% -0.20% 0.00% -0.19% -0.67% -1.30% 0.63% 0% 0%
11/15/17 13.13 -0.55% -0.41% 0.04% -0.98% 1.02% -0.64% -2.28% 1.65% 0% 0%
11/16/17 11.76 0.82% 0.41% 1.07% 0.86% 0.21% 0.43% -1.43% 1.86% 0% 0%
11/17/17 11.43 -0.26% 0.15% 0.35% 0.28% 0.07% 0.78% -1.15% 1.93% 0% 0%
11/20/17 10.65 0.13% 0.27% 1.58% 0.19% 1.39% 2.36% -0.96% 3.32% 0% 0%
11/21/17 9.73 0.65% 0.93% 0.78% 0.39% 0.39% 3.14% -0.57% 3.71% 0% 0%
11/22/17 9.88 -0.08% 0.85% -0.18% 0.37% -0.55% 2.96% -0.21% 3.16% 0% 0%
11/24/17 9.67 0.21% 1.06% 0.21% -0.13% 0.34% 3.17% -0.34% 3.51% 0% 0%
11/27/17 9.87 -0.04% 1.02% -0.46% -0.75% 0.30% 2.71% -1.09% 3.80% 0% 0%
11/28/17 9.94 0.99% 2.01% 1.87% 0.60% 1.27% 4.58% -0.49% 5.07% 0% 0%
Relative value.
Operating momentum.
Consensus estimate revisions.
Fundamental quality.
The highest-ranked stocks are selected for our long model portfolios and the lowest-ranked stocks are selected for our short model portfolios.
More detailed stock selection criteria are explained in September 2015 Model Portfolio report.
Highlighted long ideas represent are typically selected from the new idea list, and after a very brief review chosen as offering the best
potential upside.
Ascendere does not rate stocks on any scale, but does offer individual stock commentary and valuation opinions. With regard to Ascendere's portfolio strategies, "long" or "high-quality" baskets
should generally be considered buys, unless otherwise noted. Stocks in our "short" or "low-quality" baskets should generally be considered sells, unless otherwise noted. While exceptions may
occasionally occur, typically stocks in the high-quality basket are expected to outperform the S&P 500 over a month's time and stocks in the low-quality basket are expected to underperform. A
more relevant benchmark would comprise of all stocks and ADRs that trade on major U.S. stock exchanges with a market cap above $2 billion.
Ascendere adheres to professional standards and abides by codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of its own. The following are specific disclosures made by Ascendere:
1) Ascendere may have a financial interest in the companies referred to in this report ("the Companies"). The research analyst covering the Companies and members of the analyst's
immediate family have a financial interest in one or more of the Companies.
2) Ascendere generates revenue from research subscription revenue and portfolio management fees. At any given time it may be long or short any of the Companies.
3) Ascendere does not make a market in the securities of any of the Companies.
4) Ascendere has not received compensation from the Companies.
5) Ascendere has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any of the Companies.
6) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the Companies.
7) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst beneficially own 1% or more of any class of securities of any of the Companies.
DISCLAIMERS
This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report is not
intended to be in furtherance of the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own
goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of Ascendere at the time the report was released. The opinions of Ascendere are
subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation or notification. The officers, affiliates or family members of Ascendere Associates may hold positions in the securities of the
Companies. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. The views and opinions expressed in the market commentary reflect the opinions of the author and may
be based upon information obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. These opinions are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions.
Ascendere disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of Ascendere. Any other use, distribution or reproduction is strictly prohibited.
Investing in stocks includes a high degree of risk, including the risk of total loss. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation,
investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. All information, opinions and estimates are current as of original distribution by author
and are subject to change at any time without notice. Any companies, securities and/or markets referenced are solely for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future
performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.
This report may contain forward-looking statements, which involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and we might not be able to achieve the predictions, forecasts, projections and other outcomes
we may describe or imply. A number of important factors could cause results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions we express in these forward-
looking statements. We do not intend to update these forward-looking statements.
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. No part of this document may be reproduced in any way without the prior written consent of Ascendere Associates LLC.