mean 20000 x Z PDF

std dev 5102.408 10000 -10000 1.14568E-05

expec prob 0.95 11000 -9000 0.000016502
down area 0.025 12000 -8000 2.287327E-05
13000 -7000 3.050979E-05
14000 -6000 3.916234E-05
order quant 15000 -5000 4.837452E-05
15000 16000 -4000 0.000057502
18000 17000 -3000 6.577613E-05
24000 18000 -2000 7.240557E-05
28000 19000 -1000 7.669978E-05
20000 0 7.818706E-05
exp sales 24 21000 1000 7.669978E-05
cost 16 22000 2000 7.240557E-05
surpus inv 5 23000 3000 6.577613E-05
24000 4000 0.000057502
25000 5000 4.837452E-05
26000 6000 3.916234E-05
27000 7000 3.050979E-05
28000 8000 2.287327E-05
29000 9000 0.000016502
30000 10000 1.145677E-05
Suggested quant z p(x) p(t>x)
15000 -0.98 0.163543 0.836457
18000 -0.392 0.347529 0.652471
24000 0.784 0.78348 0.21652
28000 1.568 0.941559 0.058441

mean 20000
dev 5102.041
worst case 10000
mean 20000
best case 30000 worst case
exp quants sales surplus cost profit
15000 240000 25000 240000 25000
18000 240000 40000 288000 -8000
24000 240000 70000 384000 -74000
28000 240000 90000 448000 -118000

surplus inventory 5
cost 16 mean case
sales 24 exp quants sales surplus cost profit
15000 480000 0 240000 240000
18000 480000 0 288000 192000
24000 480000 20000 384000 116000
28000 480000 40000 448000 72000

best case
exp quants sales surplus cost profit
15000 720000 -75000 240000 480000
18000 720000 -60000 288000 432000
24000 720000 -30000 384000 336000
28000 720000 -10000 448000 272000
quantity table 15000 18000 24000 28000
10000 25000 -8000 -74000 -118000
20000 240000 192000 116000 72000
30000 480000 432000 336000 272000
z 0.7
k 5244 expected sales surplus cost
quantity 22675.5 worst 10000 240000 63377.5 362808
cost 16 most likely 20000 480000 13377.5 362808
price 24 best 30000 720000 0 362808
surplus 5
profit
-59430.5
130569.5
357192