Global Status & Trends of

The Hydrogen Economy

Dr. Robert K. Dixon

Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
Paris, France

OECD/IEA 2006

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 World 2004
Total Primary Energy Supply

Hydr o
Renew ables
Other
Coal
Nuclear 12% 25%
6%

Natur al Gas
21%
Oil
35%

Source: IEA-ESD Energy Balances

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 Imbalance Between Oil Demand & Reserves
Oil Reserves
Saudi Arabia 21%
Canada 14%
Iran 10%
Iraq 9%
Kuwait 8%
U.A.E. 8%
Venezuela 6%
Russia 5%
Libya 3%
Nigeria 2%
U.S. 2%

Oil Demand
U.S. 25%
Japan 7%
China 7%
Germany 3%
Russia 3%
India 3%
Canada 3%
Brazil 3%
S. Korea 3%
France 3%
Mexico 3%

Updated July 2005. Source: International Energy Annual 2003 (EIA). Canadas reserves include tar sands.

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 Global CO2 Emissions Increasing
20 000
Developing
countries

16 000 OECD
2

12 000
Million tones of CO

8 000

4 000 Transition
economies

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Source: IEA WEO

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 Environmental Impacts of Fossil Energy Use
100

80

60

40

20

0
CO NOx VOC SO2 PM10 PM2.5 CO2

Transport Industry Buildings Electricity

Source: US EPA; U.S. 2001 Energy-Linked Emissions as Percentage of Total Emissions

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 World Leaders Launch
Hydrogen Fuel Initiatives

National Initiatives:
US ~ $ 1 700 mill. over 5 years
Japan ~ $ 300 mill. a year
EC (EU) ~ 200-300 mill. a year in the 6th FP
plus: Brazil, Canada, China, India and many others

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 Hydrogen is a Possible Key to
a Secure and Clean Energy Future
Energy Security
Produced from a variety of domestic
sources Transportation
Biomass
HIGH EFFICIENCY
& RELIABILITY
Environmental Hydro
Wind
Criteria pollutants from mobile sources
Solar
eliminated Geothermal
Emissions from stationary H2
production sites easier to control
Nuclear
Greenhouse gas emissions Distributed
significantly reduced Generation
Oil

Sequestration
Coal With Carbon
Economic
ZERO/NEAR
Competitiveness Natural ZERO
Gas EMISSIONS
Abundant, reliable, and affordable
energy is an essential component in a
healthy, global economy

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 Timeline for the Hydrogen Economy
Strong Government Strong Industry Transitional
R&D Role Commercialization Role Phases

I. Technology
Development
Phase RD&D I Phase
I

Commercialization Decision

II. Initial Market

Phase Penetration
II
Transition to the Marketplace II
Phase

Phase III. Infrastructure

III
Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure III
Investment
Phase

Phase
IV
Realization of the Hydrogen Economy IV
IV. Fully Developed
Market and
Infrastructure
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040 Phase

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 Barriers to a Hydrogen Economy
Storage Volume for >300 Mile Range
Critical Path Technology Barriers:

Hydrogen Storage
(>300 mile range)

Hydrogen Production cost ($1.50 -
2.00 per gge)

Fuel Cell cost
(<$50 per kW)

Economic/Institutional Barriers:

Safety, Codes and Standards Fuel Cell Cost
(Safety and global
competitiveness)

Hydrogen Delivery (Investment
for new distribution
infrastructure)

Education
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 Hydrogen Storage
3-8x gap between todays storage system cost and target
Volumetric & Gravimetric
Energy Density
2.7
Compressed Gas 2015 target 3.0

16 (10,000 psi) Systems 1.5

2010 target 2.0
Complex Hydride Chemical 1.4
14 Systems hydride 1.6

Complex 0.6
Compressed Gas hydride 0.8
12 (5000 psi) Systems
1.6
$/kWh

Liq. H2 2.0

10 Chemical Hydride 10000 psi 1.3

1.9
gas
Storage Systems
0.8 kWh/l
5000 psi gas
8 Liquid Hydrogen
2.1 kWh/kg

Storage Systems 0 1 2 3 4
6
New technologies for advanced
4 materials/systems
High volume fabrication of
compressed and cryogenic tanks
2

2005 2010 2015

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 H2 Production Strategies
Distributed natural gas & electrolysis economics are
important for the transition

Energy resource diversification

is important for the long-term

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 Hydrogen Production
3-4x gap between todays high volume cost and target

Cost goal of $1.50-2.00

6
approximates the projected cost of
conventional fuels (gasoline,
5 untaxed)
$/kg ($/gge)

Heat Integration
Improved Catalyst Performance
4 Component Scalablility

Manufacturability
3 Operational flexibility
Remote operation

2005 2010 2015

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 PEM Fuel Cells
7x gap between todays high volume cost and target
Through 1990, PEM cost was Cost goal of $30/kW approximates
dominated by platinum loading the cost of conventional engine
3000 (~20g/kW) technology

Todays high volume estimate is

50kW system
Cost in $/kW

$225/kW and is attributed to platinum

and membrane cost

Standardized modular design

Reduced catalyst loading Improved membrane fabrication
200 Advanced membrane material

30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
High volume production defined as 500,000 units per year. Cost estimated by TIAX with enhanced hydrogen storage.

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 Stationary Fuel Cells

Can meet the demand for combined heat & power in

commercial and residential buildings

Robust technology option, not sensitive to energy policies

and competing technologies

Up to 200-300 GW by 2050, equal to 2-3% of global power

capacity in 2050

Mostly fuelled by natural gas (not

only H2)

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 FutureGen
FutureGen Industrial Alliance signed agreement to build
FutureGen in 2005

Alliance officially formed and recognized

8 charter members
Open membership policy with an active recruiting effort
Alliance has initial capital

Produces electricity and H2 with near zero emissions (including CO2)

Output of 275 MWe, 1 million metric tonnes of CO2/year
Cost: $950 million [private sector $250 M and government $700 M]
To begin operating in 2012
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 Review of National Programs

2004 summary
of public R&D
and
policy efforts
in the IEA countries

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 Prospects for H2 and Fuel Cells

2005 analysis
of H2/FC potential
using the IEA ETP
model
(scenarios to 2050)

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 H2 Production Cost
30
Projections 2020-2030 (US $/GJ H2)
25
(CCS cost: $ 1-3/GJ H2)
20 Central.
Central. Central. Central. Solar
15 Coal SI Cycle
Nat gas Nat gas
Decentral. No CCS CCS CCS
10
Electrolysis Decentral. Central.
Nat. gas Central. Biom
5 No CCS Nuc Gasific
SI Cycle
0

Decentralised gas reforming & electrolysis: < $15-20/GJ *

Later, centralised H2 from gas & coal with CCS < $10-12/GJ
Higher cost, longer term for nuclear, biomass and solar H2
GJ-basis comparison is deceptive: FCV efficiency = 2.5xICE
Fuel cost/km (ex tax) same as current ICE vehicles *
* Today: H2 > $35-50/GJ; Oil ($40/bbl) $7/GJ; Gasoline ($2/g) $16/GJ
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 Transport Sector Fuel Demand
200
(EJ/y)

Electricity
150
Hydrogen

CNG
100
FT fuels coal

FT fuels natural gas

50
Biofuels

Refinery products
0
2002 WEO RS BASE WBCSD BAS MAP
2030 2030 2050 2050 2050

Hydrogen is favored by CO2 policies

($ 50/t CO2 abatement incentive)
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 When will Hydrogen Powered Autos Reach
the Market?
GLOBAL H2 USE H2 FC VEHICLES SHARE
14 35
(EJ/y) (%) D
12 D 30

10 25

8 20

6 15

4 10 B
B
2 5
A A
0 C 0 C
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

A - Weak CO2 policy and tech. development

B - Strong CO2 policy in Kyoto countries and tech. development
C - Strong CO2 policy in Kyoto countries and tech. lag
D - Strong CO2 policy world wide and tech. development

Up to 30% H2 fuel cell vehicles by 2050

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 Regional Markets
H2 Use - Scenario D Per capita H2 use in 2050 - (GJ H2/pc)
14 8
(EJ/y) Scenario D
12 7
Scenario B
6
10 Scenario A
Others 5
8 China Scenario C
OECD Pacific 4
6
North America 3
4 Europe
2
2 1
0 0
North Europe OECD China Others
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
America Pacific

Best scenario: 60% FC vehicles in China by 2050, 42% India and US, 36-
48% Europe, 35% Canada, 22% Japan, 10% Australia

Differences across regions due to discount rate, fuel taxes, infrastructure, consumers attitude for capital-
intensive investment, mobility needs, car-mileage.

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 Energy Technology Perspectives
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050

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 World Liquid Fuel Supply by Scenario
2003-2050
8 000

7 000

6 000
Hydrogen
5 000
Biofuels
M toe

4 000
Synfuels

3 000 Oil

2 000

1 000

0
2003 Baseline Baseline AC T Map AC T Low TEC H Plus
2030 (WEO 2050 2050 Efficiency 2050
2005) 2050
Primary oil demand is below 2030 baseline level
and is returned to about todays level in TECH Plus.
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 Transport CO2 Emissions by Scenario
14 000
2050 Baseline Emission Level
12 000 Hydrogen

Savings
(including fuel

Savings
10 000 cell efficiency)
Biofuels
Mt CO2

8 000

6 000
Fuel efficiency
4 000

2 000 CO2
emissions
0
2003 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 TECH Plus
(WEO 2005) 2050

Map Scenario: Two-thirds of CO2 emissions reduction is from

improved fuel efficiency and one-third from biofuels.
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 CO2 Emissions
Baseline and Map Scenarios
35 000
OECD Developing Countr ies
30 000 +250%
25 000
+70%
Mt CO2

20 000

15 000 +65%
10 000 -32%
5 000

0
2003 Baseline ACT Map 2003 Baseline ACT Map
2050 2050 2050 2050

Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while emissions

in Developing Countries are 65% higher.
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 Hybrids are a Bridge
Hybrid vehicles are a bridge technology that can reduce pollution and our dependence on oil
until long-term technologies like hydrogen fuel cells are market-ready.
20
Potential scenarios not predictions

15

Petroleum Use (MMBPD)

DOE Base Case (Gasoline ICE)

NRC HEV Case

10

DOE FCV Case

5 NRC HEV +FCV Case

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Hybrid/Hydrogen FCV Strategy

Near-term focus on hybrids
Transition Phase to Hydrogen - decentralized H2 production from distributed
natural gas
Long-term hydrogen fuel production from diverse domestic carbon-free
sources such as renewables, nuclear, and coal with sequestration
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 Unprecedented International Cooperation
California Fuel Cell Partnership
a collaboration of auto
companies, fuel providers, fuel
cell technology companies, and
government agencies that is
placing fuel cell electric
vehicles on the road.

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 Hydrogen Demonstration Project Atlas
 name of project, partners, project dates, type of fuel,
 submission form for additional projects
 http://www.iphe.net/

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 IEA & Hydrogen Co-ordination Group
Current Work
Review national R&D programmes in IEA countries.
Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Review of National R&D Programs
Report by IEA, published December 2004

Review IEA R&D activities and collaborations.

Hydrogen Production & Storage - R&D Priorities and Gaps
Paper by the Hydrogen IA, published January 2006

Policy Analysis to Help Guide the IEA Work

Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
Report by IEA published December 2005

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 Thank you!

robert.dixon@iea.org

OECD/IEA 2006

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