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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.5 Monday, 4 10 December 2017 Pgs. 21 Rs.18

Nifty 50: Crucially poised! Money Times to cost Rs.20 per copy w.e.f.
By Sanjay R. Bhatia 1st January 2018
The markets remained tepid last week on the back of prevailing To partially set off the rising cost of operations,
overbought conditions. Though the Nifty moved above the MONEY TIMES Weekly will be priced at Rs.20 per
10400 mark on Monday, it failed to sustain higher due to lack of copy w.e.f. 1st January 2018.
Consequently, the new subscription rates will be
follow-up buying support. Weak fiscal numbers declared on
1 year: Rs.1000; 2 years: Rs.1900; 3 years: Rs.2700
Thursday added to the already weak sentiment leading to
sustained selling pressure. Even the good GDP numbers that
cheered the market on Friday in early trade failed to change the weak market sentiment.
The FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment but were
marginally net buyers in the derivatives segment. The DIs, Believe it or not!
however, remained net buyers during the week and were seen Renaissance Jewellery recommended at
supporting the markets regularly. The breadth of the market Rs.185.35 in TT last week, hit a high of
remained weak amidst high volumes, which is a negative sign Rs.242.20 fetching 31% returns in just 1
for the markets and reflects unwinding of positions. The week!
earnings season continued to be in line with expectations with Nectar Lifesciences recommended at
no negative surprises. Crude oil prices were once again buoyed Rs.29.55 in TT on 20 November 2017, hit a
by the OPEC commitment to cut production for the year 2018.
high of Rs.37.60 fetching 27% returns in just
On the domestic front S&P announced a status quo on Indias 2 weeks!
rating outlook while the fiscal numbers painted a rather Hinduja Global Solutions recommended at
alarming picture. SBIs decision to raise interest rate on bulk Rs.636.50 in EE on 20 November 2017, hit a
deposits indicates that the RBI in its forthcoming policy high of Rs.752.75 fetching 18% returns in
meeting on 5-6 December is likely to keep status quo on
just 2 weeks!
interest rates.
Goodricke Group recommended at
Technically, the prevailing negative technical conditions Rs.283.10 in TT on 13 November 2017, hit a
weighed on the market sentiment. The Stochastic, RSI and KST high of Rs.545 fetching 93% returns in just 3
are all placed below their respective averages on the daily and weeks!
weekly charts. Moreover, the Nifty has slipped below its 50-day
Bhansali Engineering Polymers
SMA, which is a short-term negative. These negative technical
recommended at Rs.130.50 in VP on 13
conditions could lead to further selling pressure.
November 2017, hit a high of Rs.199.90
The prevailing positive technical conditions, however, still hold fetching 53% returns in just 3 weeks!
good. The MACD is placed above its average on the daily and
weekly charts. Further, the Stochastic has moved in the (EE Expert Eye; TT Tower Talk; VP Value Pick)
oversold zone on the daily chart. Moreover, the Nifty is placed
above its 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. This happens only in Money Times!
The Niftys 50-day SMA is placed above its 100-day and 200- Now in its 27th Year

A Time Communications Publication 1


day SMA, its 100-day SMA is placed above its 200-day SMA indicating a golden cross breakout. These positive technical
conditions could lead to short-covering and buying support
at the lower levels.
The -DI line is placed above the +DI line and above the ADX
line. Further, it is placed above the 32 level, which indicates
that the sellers are gaining strength. However, the ADX line
continues to languish below 17, which indicates that the
current trend lacks strength and the markets are likely to
turn volatile and choppy. The market sentiment has turned
negative and the Nifty is poised crucially. The Nifty has
closed above a crucial support level placed at 10120. It is
important that the markets respect this level and bounce
back. In case the Nifty slips below 10120, then further selling
pressure is likely to be seen and the Nifty could test the 9955
support level. 10200 remains a psychologically important
resistance level for the Nifty.
In the meanwhile, the markets will take cues from the news flow on the forthcoming RBI policy, news flow on Gujarat
state elections, global markets, Dollar-Rupee exchange rate and crude oil prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 33000, 33300, 33750, 34000 and 34500 levels and seeks support at the
32325, 32000, 31610, 30921, 30680 and 29365 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 10270, 10200,
10325, 10400, 10462 and 10490 while its support levels are placed at 10120, 10100, 10000 and 9955.

BAZAR.COM

A slow but sure change


As the Gujarat poll dates near and the electoral war gets deadlier, the level of politics stoops to new lows. From Vikaas,
the debate has sunk to the level whether RaGa is a Hindu or not. Even the body language of both Amit Shah and
Narendra Modi leaves much to desire. The battle is drawing to a very interesting close. Amidst this, the market fails to
succumb at least for now. It is possibly betting on BJPs win albeit with a slender margin making it a great wake up call
for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and of course the general elections of 2019.
While the benchmark remains in the groove and does not display any breakout either way, select stocks do not behave
so. Therefore, now is the time to dissect the quarterly and half yearly reports and fathom the guidance, if any. Its time to
read the lips of the promoters and read between the lines. It would be fruitful to study the track, which the corporates
have adopted and how well they tread on it. It would make an interesting and flourishing study to discuss a few of such
corporates that offer good capital appreciation over the medium-to-long term.
Car makers like Maruti Suzuki India and Tata Motors along with other unlisted subsidiaries are gearing up to capitalize
on the governments push for electric vehicles. Affordability and suitability under the traffic conditions in India are
under study. In other countries, solar-powered charging has been adopted, which makes great sense. In the international
market, global oil giants are looking at providing solar-powered charging facilities in a big way. The Government of India
should be proactive in this matter and promote environment-friendly vehicles and purposefully stem oil imports. We
need to put up solar chargers not only in the dense metros but also along the highways and roads to change over to a
sustainable and forwardlooking transport system.
Bajaj Auto in its tie-up with British premium motorcycle maker Triumph will enable the latter to more than double its
global business. The maker of Tiger off-road bikes is likely to grow at 20% CAGR from 64,000 units in 2016 to 1,00,000
units by the end of fiscal 2018. Triumph through this partnership will focus on the mid-sized category of 250-750 cc
bikes.
Mahindra & Mahindra is about to take another crack at the American market. This $19 bn business major is unrelenting
in its effort to make a mark in the worlds premier auto industry. Back home in India, the company has entered into a
partnership with Uber India to deploy electric vehicles on its platform beginning with a few hundred vehicles in Delhi
and Hyderabad in February 2018 before expanding its base to other cities in India.
Tata Nano after its initial failure is likely to get another lease of life with an electric heart transplant. It is planning a
comeback with an electric motor under the hood. Coimbatore-based Jayem Automotives has signed an agreement with
Tata Motors to source the body shell of the car, which will then be fitted with an electric motor and powertrain at its

A Time Communications Publication 2


Coimbatore facility. On a fully charged battery, the vehicle can
travel 150 kms. Tata Motors already has orders from Ola Cabs for Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
400 such cars. Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
to get a view of the stock market and the
Kishore Biyanis Future group plans to open 10,000 member- happenings which many may not be aware of.
only Easy Day stores by 2022, using the technology and data of
Alphabet Incs Google and Facebook.
Mukesh Ambani has already stormed the telecom sector with the launch of Jio and his next big foray is into online retail.
The Indian Railways plans to electrify its entire network by 2022 at an expenditure of Rs.40000 crore. Network
electrification would mean incremental growth opportunities for Larsen & Toubro, KEC International, Kalpataru Power
Transmission, Texmaco Rail & Engineering, ABB India, Siemens and Bharat Heavy Electricals.
With the launch of soups, Marico has entered into a market, which is dominated by Nestle India and Hindustan Unilever.
It plans to raise its revenue bar to Rs.10000 crore by 2020.
Sterlite Technologies, a leader in optical fibre cables, expects its bottom-line to treble by 2020.
These are only a few of the ideas and developments that can spin money for investors going forward. The market
laments the fact that the private sector shies away from capex but the zeal to expand the product range is not missing.
Hence, capex will follow. In fact, the bigger or successful corporates can now purchase a defaulters capacity and thereby
save huge costs and time for launch. A slow but sure change it is.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Bull market at critical juncture


By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 32832 Down 33304 Up 31957 Up 30049
Last week, the Sensex opened at 33640.51, attained a high at 33770.14 and moved to a low of 32797.78 before it closed
the week at 32832.94 and thereby showed a net fall of 846 points on a week-to-week basis.
Daily Chart
In the previous edition, we had indicated an indecisive candle, resistance and supply zone till 33865 is not crossed. The
Sensex failed to sustain that level and showed a sharp slide last week with a fall of 846 points.
The support of 32683 is under pressure now and may get violated.
Support cluster at the lower range is 32312-32683.
A fall and close below 32312 will take the Sensex towards 31081.
Resistance, supply and selling rules at the higher range for index and index-related stocks until 33685 is not crossed.
Weekly Chart
The support zone of 32683-32312 is critical and the Sensex will try to test it in the next few days.
The slide could extend to test the Weekly Reversal Value(WRV), which is at 31957.
Resistance during the week will be at 33133-33469-33865. Lower range for the week can be 32497-31524.
RSI indicator on the weekly chart has shown a negative
divergence and violation of 32683 with a bearish candle in
the near-term will confirm an important top for the short-to-
medium-term.
Stochastic has exit the overbought zone.
MACD has shown a negative divergence as well. New
investment entries in index and index-related stocks can be
considered when the Stochastic hits the oversold zone.
A reversal of the rising medium-to-long term trend is in
progress, which will be confirmed in due course of time. A
deeper correction could happen and an immediate rise and
close above 33685 is needed. Failure to do so in the next

A Time Communications Publication 3


couple of weeks could lead the Sensex to slide to 31294-30680. A fall and close below 30680 can put the market into a
danger zone for a long-term correction or bearish market to 29425 at least, which may extend to 26861. Therefore, the
Sensex cannot afford to slide below 30680 in the short-term.
A recovery and bounce back must happen from 32600-32300. Subseuqnetly, it must provide a breakout above 33900.
Any lower top against 33700 and 33900 can lead to a deeper slide.
Convergence of the two trend lines can be witnessed in the rally from 22494 to the current level. The rally appears to be
in 5 Waves and is looking to confirm the termination of Wave 5 and the big rally from 22494.
The rise from 22494 in itself is Wave 5 of a larger degree.
As long as the going is good, the danger of reversal is not felt.
The 10-week movement is losing momentum and is making lower tops in relation to the Sensex rising and the top
suggesting a negative divergence.
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
The daily ROC trend is down on 1-3-5 day
basis. The weekly ROC trend is down on 1-3
week basis. The ROC trends suggest that a Profitrak Weekly
correction/ downside momentum is likely in
A complete guide for Trading and Investments based on Technicals
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33865 is crossed immediately. Technical Product P/E Based Level - Working as Support and
Daily chart: Resistance
1-Day trend - Down What you Get?
3-Day trend - Down
1) Weekly Market Outlook of -
8-Day trend - Down Sensex
Weekly chart: Nifty
Bank Nifty Features
1-Week trend - Down
2) Sectoral Review
3-Week trend - Down Outperforming, Market Performing and Under
8-Week trend - Up Performing
Monthly chart: Stand Alone Weekly Signal for Up Trend and Down Trend
Stock Wise New Addition and Follow Up Chart Comments
1-Month trend - Down Selection Process Based on Multi Time Frame Trend and
3-Month trend - Up RS
8-Month trend - Up 3) Multi Time Frame Yearly Chart
Stock Filtration
Quarterly chart: One Annual In Jan-Dec
1-Quarter trend - Up From March running Yearly Filtration- March to March
3-Quarter trend - Up 4) Sectoral View of Strong/Weak/Market Perfomer indices
5) Weekly Trading Signals
8-Quarter trend - Up
6) Stock Views and Updates every week
Yearly chart: 7) Winners for trading and investing for medium-to-long-term
1-Year trend - Up till March 2018
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immediate breakout above 17110 is required 022-22616970/4805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
to show that mid-caps rule over Sensex/index-
based stocks.

A Time Communications Publication 4


A diverging trend may continue if it sustains above 17110.
BSE Small-Cap Index
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Up
Long-legged doji and inverted hammer show that resistance at the higher range and near-term top could form unless an
immediate rise above 18412 is witnessed on closing. The objective remains to exit long and book profits.
Strategy for the week
Across the board, the strategy is to exit long as much as possible till 33865 is not witnessed. 32300 is a critical level for a
deeper bear market. Therefore, exit as much as possible to generate cash and enter long on suitable deep corrections.
In the previous edition, we had stated that a breakout above 33900 was critical, which was not witnessed last week. For
the bull market to continue, a higher top and higher bottom formation must continue. The Sensex is under the threat of
violating the support base of 32600-32300. A transition phase from a bull to a bear market could be in progress as the
Sensex tests the critical support zone of 32600-32300.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS


Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA 432.80 415 415.4 432.5 449.9 484.5 71.9 400.3 03-11-17
AUTOMOTIVE AXLES 1517 1300 1365.3 1451.7 1603.3 1841.3 71.5 1232.5 03-11-17
B.A.S.F. INDIA 2042 1941 1968.7 2014.3 2087.7 2206.7 70.6 1920 03-11-17
KOLTE-PATIL DEVELOPERS 367.85 328.7 329.5 367.1 405.4 481.3 66.6 304.7 06-10-17
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA 8608 8450 8473.7 8584.3 8718.7 8963.7 65.7 8400.5 27-10-17

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
GREAVES COTTON 118.35 110.1 116.2 120.1 122.3 124 23.59 121.65 15-09-17
RIL COMMUNICATONS 12.36 10.4 11.8 12.7 13.2 13.6 30.77 13 10-11-17
LUPIN 814 776 804 822 83 840 32.38 826.75 27-10-17
GLENMARK PHARMA 554.75 498.6 540.1 567 581.6 593.8 33.60 579.07 10-11-17
SUZLON ENERGY 13.80 11.7 13.2 14.2 14.8 15.2 36.21 14.31 10-11-17

A Time Communications Publication 5


*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.

EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Supply Point Supply Point Supply Point Strong Above Demand Point Monthly RS

JSW HOLDINGS 1785.60 1787.66 1790.03 1792.39 1800.05 1767.6 46.73


MRF 66213.90 67025.20 67425.12 67825.05 69119.75 63636 46.97
NAVNEET EDUCATION 166.30 168.03 169.15 170.27 173.90 158.5 47.67
GRASIM INDUSTRIES 1149 1156.46 1160 1163.54 1175 1126.5 49.68

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS

- - - - - - - -

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -

TOWER TALK
Idea Cellular plans to double its 4G capacity in Maharashtra and Goa primarily to fight bigger operators. Buy.
Tea prices are on the rise again. Jay Shree Tea & Industries, Goodricke Group and McLeod Russel India look
good.
Sales volumes of confectionery major Britannia Industries have continuously improved. The stock could
appreciate ~40% within a year. Buy.
Fiberweb (India) intends to issue a bonus. The stock has been stable in volatile markets too. Buy.
Larsen & Toubro will gain significantly from the Hyderabad Metro Rail project. A good long-term buy.
The governments Affordable Housing for All
scheme spells good reasons to buy Asian Granito For the busy investor
India. Its prospects look good on account of higher
volumes and higher margins. Fresh One Up Trend Daily
Bharat Electronics, which makes weapons for the Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
armed forces, has secured huge orders and is an keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
excellent investment opportunity. The stock could trading day.
touch Rs.250 within a few months. With just one daily recommendation selected from
Lakshmi Vilas Bank has fixed its rights issue at stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
Rs.122/share (CMP: Rs.170.75). Buy immediately for day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
decent returns. review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
Cotton prices are on the rise. A good time to buy while the stock is still in an uptrend.
Ambika Cotton Mills. This low risk, high return product is available for online
China Development Bank has filed insolvency subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
proceedings against Reliance Communications.
Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
Throw this share before it tanks further.
moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
Marico expects a much better rural growth on the
back of a decent monsoon. A safe investment bet.

A Time Communications Publication 6


Golden Tobacco plans to sell its Mumbai plant for ~Rs.1200 crore. Apart from clearing a big Income Tax payment,
there is much on the table for shareholders. Buy.
Aurobindo Pharma is looking for inorganic growth opportunities by acquiring a product portfolio in Eastern
Europe.
Mahindra Defence, Shapoorji Pallonji and some suitors from Germany are amongst the likely bidders for Bharati
Defence & Infrastructure. Retail investors may gain in this case.
The GST rate for electric vehicles is set at 12% as against 28% for petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicles. A positive for
Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors.
Speciality chemical major Aarti Industries is likely to report excellent results this year. With strong EPS, low
debt:equity ratio of 1.15x and strong interest coverage ratio of over 4.5x, this stock may rise by about 35% in the
next six months.
Packaging major Polyplex Corporation is available at 50% discount to its book value and is also a potential bonus
candidate. A safe investment bet.
Power Mech Projects has obtained orders worth Rs.357 crore for infrastructure development work and
construction of ultramodern medical equipment manufacturing and testing facility at Visakhapatnam. This should
boost its share price. Buy.
Coal India is in demand on reports of a foreign brokerage house upgrading its stock rating to outperform from
neutral.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries may soon start
exports of certain generics from its Halol plant to USA. Free 2-day trial of Live Market Intra-day Calls
A positive for the company. A running commentary of intra-day trading
IndiaBulls Housing Finance has received AAA rating, recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
which will definitely enable it to procure funds at on your mobile every trading day of the moth along with
competitive rates. A big positive. The stock pays high pre-market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
dividend and is also a prospective bonus candidate. Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
State Bank of India anticipates a big fall in its NPA
levels. This should boost its share price. A decent buy.
Greaves Cotton, a manufacturer of all kinds of gensets, currently trades at 14x FY18E earnings v/s the industry
average of 30x. The stock could rise by 30% in the short-term. A safe bet.
T T Ltd, a manufacturer of under garments and now focused on all kinds of garments, plans to open 100 retail stores
within a year. It could touch Rs.100 in the short-term.
Archies Ltd could be the next big story in the retail space. It has shut down all its loss-making segments and is now
focused on profitability. A sure-shot multibagger.
RPG Lifesciences seems to be coming back from the dead. The management has guided of a USFDA approval for its
facility in H1FY18. The stock can easily appreciate 50% from the current level.
Tea and rubber prices are on the rise. Harrisons Malayalam is the best bet in the tea sector with good promoter
pedigree. The stock has given a multi-year breakout and can easily double from the current level.
Rumours are doing the round that Prime Securities is likely to be taken over by a larger broking firm. Buy for quick
gains.
With India consuming 50% of the whisky in the world, the liquor market is likely to expand 20-25% every
year. United Spirits (McDowells) is a good bet considering that the stock has given a multi-year breakout and can
easily double from the current level.
Morganite Crucible (India), a 75% MNC from UK-based Morgan, is set to notch an EPS of Rs.58-60 for FY18. A P/E
of 25x (as applied to blue-chips) could take its share price to Rs.1500.
Vindhya Telelinks is likely to notch an EPS of Rs.85 for FY18 and Rs.95 for FY19 post expansion. It holds a sizable
stake in Birla Corp and Universal Cables, the market value of which currently is Rs.3125 crore (Rs.2648/share). The
stock could touch Rs.1800 on account of its improving fundamentals and further expansion.
Gitanjali Gems is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.24 for FY18. The stock trades at a forward P/E of just 3.4x and
could touch Rs.144 on a reasonable P/E of 6x.
An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends Archidply Industries, Almondz Global Securities, Bhagyanagar
India, Indo Thai Securities, IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, Kolte-Patil Developers, Simmonds Marshall,

A Time Communications Publication 7


Tree House Education & Accessories and Universal Cables. From his past recommendations, Frontier Springs
appreciated 237% from Rs.70.3 in August 2017 to Rs.236.95 last week; Purvankara appreciated 141% from
Rs.65.45 in June 2017 to Rs.158.05; Rishiroop appreciated 112% from Rs.69 in August 2017 to Rs.146.35; Action
Construction Equipment appreciated 111% from Rs.73.55 in June 2017 to Rs.155; Grauer Weil (India)
appreciated 100% from Rs.39.90 in June 2017 to Rs.79.7; Nucleus Software Exports appreciated 86% from
Rs.323.45 in October 2017 to Rs.602.4 and Marathon NextGen Realty appreciated 41% from Rs.450.15 in October
2017 to Rs.636.

BEST BET

Castrol India Ltd


(BSE Code: 500870) (CMP: Rs.400.90) (FV: Rs.5)
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Castrol India Ltd (CIL) provides coke and refined petroleum products. It manufactures lubricating oils. It operates
through two segments: Automotive and Non-Automotive. Its brands include Castrol Activ, Castrol Power1, Castrol GTX,
Castrol MAGNATEC, Castrol EDGE, Castrol CRB Turbo, Castrol VECTON and Castrol Go! Its products include Castrol CRB
Multi, Castrol CRB Turbo Plus, Castrol Vecton CI4+ and Castrol Magnatec Professional OE 5W20. It offers non-
automotive lubricants such as industrial lubricants and marine and energy lubricants. It operates across three sectors of
the lubricants industry: Automotive; Industrial; and Marine and Energy applications. It offers products for cars,
motorcycles, scooters and trucks. Castrol Ltd is its holding company.
In Q3CY17, CILs PAT climbed 29% QoQ and 28% YoY to Rs.1.78 bn mainly on account of better realization, marginally
higher volumes (despite the GST impact) and higher other income. Overall revenue grew 13% YoY to Rs.8.6 bn.
Operating margin improved by 150 bps to 29%. The management also declared a 1:1 bonus with expected date of
allotment as 6 January 2018.
CIL will continue to make strong progress on its strategic priorities, focusing on new customer acquisition, distribution
expansion and improving customer satisfaction. It has entered into a new exclusive supply partnership with Piaggio and
extended its existing OEM partnerships with the VW group (Skoda, Audi and VW) and Volvo cars.
In Q3CY17, CIL reported double digit volume growth YoY in the personal mobility segment and power brands. Its
industrial segment also achieved a strong win for its metal working fluids with TaeguYec India (carbide cutting tolls).
With improved industrial activity, we expect the demand for lubricants to improve going forward. Additionally, new
product launches will further boost lubricant sales. CIL is focused on new customer acquisition, distribution expansion
and delivering premium customer experience, which is expected to boost its volume growth.
Technical Outlook: The CIL stock looks very good on the daily chart for
Valuations: (Rs. in mn)
medium-term investment. At the CMP, the stock is valued at 16.7x
Particulars CY16 CY17E CY18E
EV/EBIDTA, 26.1x P/E and 27.7x P/BV on the basis of CY18E earnings. It has
formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart and a breakout with good ROE (%) 73.9 73.9 73.7
volumes at Rs.420 will push its share price to a much higher level. The stock ROCE (%) 74 74 73.7
trades below its 200 DMA level on the daily chart placed at Rs.405. EPS (Rs.) 13.6 14.1 15.1
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.400.90 and on dips to Rs.375 for P/E (x) 28.9 27.9 26.1
medium-to-long-term investment and a possible price target of Rs.460+ in P/BV (x) 32.7 30.5 26.7
the next 6 months. EV/EBITDA (x) 18.1 17.9 16.7

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Jamna Auto Industries Ltd


(BSE Code: 520051) (CMP: Rs.63.15) (FV: Re.1) (TGT: Rs.80+)
Jamna Auto Industries Ltd (JAIL) provides automotive suspension solutions for commercial vehicles (CVs). It
manufactures and sells parabolic and tapered leaf springs. Its products include Suspension Products including Rear Air
Suspension-Cow Horn Style; Lift Axle-Steerable/Non Steerable; and Bogie Suspension-Tandem Axle; Multileaf Springs;

A Time Communications Publication 8


and Parabolic Springs. Its manufacturing plants are located at Yamuna Nagar in Haryana, Bhind in Madhya Pradesh,
Kharsawan in Jharkhand, Krishnagiri in Tamil Nadu, Pune in Maharashtra and Sriperumbudur in Tamil Nadu.
In Q2FY18, JAILs net revenue MID-CAP TWINS
grew 41% to Rs.385 crore from A Performance Review
Rs.273.5 crore in Q2FY17, led
Have a look at the grand success story of Mid-Cap Twins launched on 1st August 2016
by robust growth in CV
Sr. Scrip Name Recomm. Recomm. Highest % Gain
volumes (MHCVs volume up
20% YoY) after the slowdown No. Date Price (Rs.) since (Rs.)
seen in Q1FY18 post BSI-V 1 Mafatlal Industries 01-08-16 332.85 374.40 12
implementation. We expect 2 Great Eastern Shipping Co. 01-08-16 335.35 477 42
H2FY18E to remain healthy 3 India Cements 01-09-16 149.85 226 51
considering the rising 4 Tata Global Beverages 01-09-16 140.10 293.70 110
infrastructure spending, lower
finance cost and expected 5 Ajmera Realty & Infra India 01-10-16 137.00 355.70 160
recovery in private capex. 6 Transpek Industry 01-10-16 447.00 1455.40 226
Operational profit was up 7 Greaves Cotton 01-11-16 138.55 178 28
26.7% to Rs.50.3 crore from 8 APM Industries 01-11-16 67.10 84.40 26
Rs.39.7 crore in Q2FY17.
9 OCL India 01-12-16 809.45 1620 100
EBITDA margin declined to
13.1% from 14.5% on YoY 10 Prism Cement 01-12-16 93.25 129.80 39
basis, led by a surge in material 11 Mahindra CIE Automotive 01-01-17 182.50 266.50 46
costs (up 60.5% YoY). We 12 Swan Energy 01-01-17 154.10 204 32
expect operating margins to 13 Hindalco Industries 01-02-17
improve in FY19-20E with the
191.55 278.50 45
rising share of parabolic leaf 14 Century Textiles & Industries 01-02-17 856.50 1421 66
springs and operational 15 McLeod Russel India 01-03-17 171.75 248.30 45
leverage benefits. Net profit 16 Sonata Software 01-03-17 191.00 247 29
jumped 36.1% to Rs.29.5 crore 17 ACC 01-04-17 1446.15 1869 29
from Rs.21.6 crore in Q2FY17
on account of higher other 18 Walchandnagar Industries 01-04-17 142.25 272.90 92
income (up 98% YoY) and 19 Oriental Veneer Products 01-05-17 222.30 540 143
lower depreciation cost (down 20 Tata Steel 01-05-17 448.85 734.90 64
24% YoY). As a result, net profit 21 Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries 01-06-17 501.40 590.75 18
margin declined to 7.6% from
22 Ujjivan Financial Services 01-06-17 307.45 417.40 36
7.9% in Q2FY17.
23 Ashok Leyland 01-07-17 93.85 133 42
JAIL has a dominant market
share of ~73% in conventional 24 KSB Pumps 01-07-17 759.55 931 23
leaf springs and ~95% in 25 IRB Infrastructure Developers 01-08-17 224.95 251 12
parabolic spring's market in 26 JTL Infra 01-08-17 70 125 79
India. It is well-placed to 27 Stock A 01-09-17
benefit from the bright outlook
187.40 308.90 65
of the Indian CV industry on the 28 Stock B 01-09-17 271.20 317 17
back of the rising infrastructure 29 Stock C 01-10-17 73.65 89.25 21
spending, expected revival in 30 Stock D 01-10-17 74.10 91.35 23
private sector capex and low 31 Stock E 01-11-17 206 218.95 6
borrowing costs.
32 Stock F 01-11-17 38 57.90 52
JAIL has robust fundamentals
Thus Mid-Cap Twins has delivered excellent results since its launch with majority of
with high dividend payout
(~30%), higher return ratios stocks gaining over 30%.
(~30%), experienced Latest edition of Mid-Cap Twins was released on 1 December 2017.
management and healthy cash
flows. GST implementation will Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
further expand its presence in Mid-cap Twins will be available both as print edition or online delivery.
the aftermarket segment, which
is currently dominated by unorganized players.

A Time Communications Publication 9


Technical Outlook: The JAIL stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed a
rounding bottom pattern on the daily chart and a breakout with good volumes at Rs.70 could push the stock to a higher
level. The stock trades above all important 200 DMA levels on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.63.15 and on dips to Rs.56 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.80+ in the next 12 months.
*******

Action Construction Equipment Ltd


(BSE Code: 532762) (CMP: Rs.131.90) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.185+)
Action Construction Equipment Ltd (ACEL) is a material handling and construction equipment manufacturing company
that manufactures general purpose and special purpose machinery. It operates through three segments - cranes,
material handling/construction equipment and agri equipment. It offers mobile cranes, tower cranes, crawler cranes,
truck mounted cranes, lorry loaders, backhoe loaders and loaders, vibratory rollers, forklifts, tractors, harvesters and
other construction equipment. Its products find application in power projects, ports and shipyards, dams, metro rail,
roads, mining, steel industry, engineering industry, railways, cement, petroleum, defense, warehousing, logistics and
building construction. Its production facilities are located at industrial townships of Faridabad in Haryana and Kashipur
in Uttarakhand.
In Q2FY18, ACELs top-line grew 40% YoY. Positive operating
leverage at play resulted in a higher than anticipated growth in the Relative Strength (RS)
bottom-line at 144%. Segmental profits were led by the cranes
segment and were boosted by a turnaround in the agri equipment signals a stocks ability to perform in a
segment. dynamic market.
Knowledge of it can lead you to profits.
Considering the recent robust operational performance delivered
by ACEL, we revise our estimates higher for all its segments. We POWER OF RS - Rs.3100 for 1 year:
believe that ACEL will benefit from the upcoming demand tailwind
in the construction and infrastructure space. Higher realisations What you get -
from tower cranes will help keep blended crane realisation steady. Most Important- Association for 1 year
Its material handling segment i.e. forklifts will benefit from the
at just Rs.3100!
reduced GST rate from 28% to the current 18%. Going forward,
sustained profitability in the agri equipment segment continues to 1-2 buy / sell per day on a daily basis
remain crucial for ACEL. 1 buy per week
ACELs robust expected capacity utilisation, strong demand and its 1 buy per month
leadership position in the cranes business will further accelerate 1 buy per quarter
its top-line while the benefits of operating leverage will further 1 buy per year
disproportionately boost its profitability. Accordingly, we estimate
~19% growth in top-line with ~39% growth in EBIDTA and For more details, contact Money Times on
~56% growth in PAT over FY17-20E. We revise the valuation 022-22616970/4805 or
multiple of ACEL at 16x EV/EBIDTA on an estimated EBIDTA of moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Rs.9.9/share (FY20E).
Technical Outlook: The ACEL stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed a
rounding bottom pattern on the weekly chart and a breakout with good volumes at Rs.130 has led the stock to rally
further from its breakout points. The stock trades above all important 200 DMA levels on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.131.90 and on dips to Rs.106 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.185+ in the next 6 months.

STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd: A power-packed performance!


(BSE Code: 532286) (CMP: Rs.168.75) (FV: Re.1)
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd (JSPL) operates through the following segments - Iron & Steel; Power; and Others. Its steel
division has 9.94 MMT capacity of iron and 8.9 MMT of crude steel. It has integrated steel plants at Raigarh (3.4

A Time Communications Publication 10


MMTPA), Angul (5 MMTPA) and Oman (1.5 MMTPA). Its power division (Jindal Power Ltd) has a 3,400 MW power plant
at Tamnar in Chhattisgarh. It is also backward integrated into mining with assets in Australia, Mozambique and South
Africa.
FY13-16 was a lean period for JSPL due to declining revenues from its steel business and erratic performance of its
power business. However, FY17 is considered as a year of revival not only for the overall global steel cycle but also for
the domestic steel industry mainly on account of significant cut backs in installed capacity by China citing environmental
concerns, anti-dumping measures undertaken by major steel importers viz. India, USA and Europe on Chinese dumping,
lower domestic iron ore prices which have improved profitability, revival of Indian infrastructure, shrinking demand-
supply gap in the domestic market which has improved long-term visibility.
In addition, JSPL will benefit from the completion of capex at its Angul Financials: (Rs. in crore)
plant and value-added products (TMT bars) from its Oman facility Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E
beginning FY18 end. Its newly commissioned 4 MMT blast furnace is EBITDA 4661 6058 7910
expected to double steel production by FY18 end. After supplying
Net Profit (1913) (1449) 180
~1,50,000 tonnes of steel to Iran since 2016, JSPL could easily win a
Adjusted EPS (Rs.) (24.93) (1.64) 20.38
major slice of steel rails order from the Indian railways worth $130
bn.
As the steel industrys outlook looks good, the management is confident of repaying ~Rs.23000 crore of debt by 2020.
When consortium of banks have been forced to take haircuts for the NPA accounts in steel companies like Bhushan Steel,
Monnet Ispat and Electrosteel, JSPL could be an outlier and could fetch good double-digit returns if investors accumulate
this stock at slightly lower levels post a broader market correction and hold it till 2020.

STOCK ANALYSIS

Nagreeka Capital & Infrastructure Ltd: Poised for a huge upside


(BSE Code: 532895) (CMP: Rs.48.05) (FV: Rs.5)
By Rahul Sharma
Incorporated in 1994, Nagreeka Capital & Infrastructure Ltd (NAGREEKCAP) is a part of the Nagreeka Group promoted
by Mr. I.L. Patwari and family. NAGREEKCAP, headed by Sushil Patwari, Chairman, is a non-banking financial company
(NBFC) engaged in investment activities. Its portfolio consists of investments in equity markets, private equity, capital
ventures, mutual funds, real estate and renewable energy, among others.
Performance Review: In Q2FY18, its total revenue Financials: (Rs. in mn)
grew 116% QoQ to Rs.453 mn, EBITDA grew 52% QoQ Particulars Q2FY18 Q1FY18 Q2FY17 FY17 FY16
to Rs.47 mn, PAT zoomed 225% QoQ to Rs.13 mn while Total Income 453 210 -11 264 512
EPS surged 253% QoQ to Rs.1.06. Its FY17 performance
EBITDA 47 31 -36 151 -321
was also commendable with PBT of Rs.14 mn as against
PBT 13 4 -33 14 -495
a loss of Rs.495 mn in FY16. However, it reported a net
loss due to tax expenses. PAT 13 4 -33 -13 -176
EPS (Rs.) 1.06 0.3 -2.58 -1.05 -13.96
Industry Prospects: The NBFC sector in India has
undergone a significant transformation over the past few years. It has become an important component of the financial
system and has grown consistently. Government reforms and policies such as approval for large infrastructure projects,
addressing challenges in the Mining and Power sectors, increasing foreign investment limits, Housing for All, Smart
Cities, etc. are major growth drivers for the socio-economic environment.
The management expects acceleration in growth this year on account of declining inflation, lower interest rates and
continued focus on economic reforms. With the Sensex and Nifty touching new highs, there has been a large inflow of
funds into the Indian capital markets from foreign as well as domestic funds and this trend is expected to continue. This
will result in higher investment opportunities thus benefitting NAGREEKCAP.
Investment Rationale: NAGREEKCAP is undergoing a turnaround phase and going ahead, its strong performance is
likely to continue. Its total revenue has grown at 12% CAGR over the last five years and its EBITDA margin has
constantly improved in the recent years. Its P/BV ratio is 0.85x, which indicates that the stock is undervalued.
At the CMP of Rs.48.05, the stock trades at a P/E of 9.5x on its EPS (TTM) of Rs.5.03. The stock is available at a discount
compared to the Industry P/E of 44.6x, S&P BSE Small-Cap P/E of 89.1x and Nifty Small-Cap 250 P/E of 89.5x. Therefore,
we recommend this stock for a price target of Rs.200 in the long-term.

A Time Communications Publication 11


STOCK SCAN

Rapicut Carbides Ltd: A worthy buy


(BSE Code: 500360) (CMP: Rs.73.40) (FV: Rs.10)
By Archana Jain
Company Profile: Incorporated in April 1977, Rapicut Carbides Ltd (RCL) is an integrated unit set up at Ankleshwar in
Gujarat to manufacture Tungsten Carbide (TC) Tips, Inserts and other Carbide products from the ore stage. It
commenced commercial production in October 1979. It manufactures a wide range of TC products like TC Tips, TC
Inserts, Wire Drawing Nibs, Bar and Tube Drawing Pellets, TC Rings, Flats, Bushes, Jute Eyelets, Solid Carbide Cutters
and a wide range of Tool Room Products. It offers products across five product groups mining; wear parts; metal
cutting; powder; and finished products. It manufactures 2,000 types of standard tips and 20 types of drill inserts. Its
R&D facility has enabled it to design and build grades of inserts that are reliable, strong and more durable, making it a
preferred vendor for these tools.
TC products are used by the mining, automobile Capital Structure: (Rs. in crore)
and engineering sectors and these sectors have Particulars FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13
good medium-to-long-term prospects. RCL also Equity Share Capital 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 2.15
offers wear part products like mechanical seal
Reserve & Surplus 17.03 14.06 13.39 11.95 13.57
rings, pellets, rings, jute eyelets, etc. Its metal
cutting group manufactures tips that are used to Book Value (Rs.) 41.70 36.18 34.93 32.24 73.14
cut metal and customized metal cutting tips for Long-Term Borrowings 0.33 0.01 0.04 0.84 0.59
automobile, engineering, shoe accessories, textile and sugar companies. It also manufactures tungsten metal powder, TC
powder and fused TC powder. Its offerings in finished products include flats, blushes, segments, etc. IT also benefits
indirectly from real estate development especially malls, hospitals, large commercial and residential complexes since it
manufactures carbide mining tools used for mining and cutting marble, granite, basalt, sandstone and quartzite. The
demand for carbide mining tools will rise in line with the growth in the real estate sector driven by rising per capita
income and availability of finance from institutions.
RCLs centralized R&D department is equipped with advanced data processing equipment to facilitate material
composition analysis and various other tests. It also has an in-house chemical laboratory, which enables it to control the
physical and chemical properties while manufacturing tips and inserts.
Clientele: PRP Granites, Lupin, Hind Associates, B. R. Machine Tools, P.S.K.S & Co., Bundy India, Forbes Gokak, Greaves
Cotton, Godrej Industries, Tata Iron & Steel Co., Electro Steel Castings, SAIL, Choksi Heraeus, BHEL, Shiballoy Multiflex,
Sugan Engineering, Neyveli Lignite Corp., Hindustan Platinum, Birla NGK Insulators, Mineral Exploration Corp., Sanghavi
Shoe Accessories, Jamshedpur Engg. & Machine Mfg. Co., Weatherford Drilling & Production Services.
Performance Review: For FY17, RCLs Financial Highlights: (Rs. in crore)
turnover grew 26% to Rs.42.12 crore from
Rs.33.49 crore in FY16. PAT more than Particulars FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13
doubled to Rs.2.96 crore from Rs.1.45 crore Total Income 42.12 33.49 38.69 38.51 39.35
in FY16. Expenditure 37.10 30.12 34.19 34.00 33.07
RCL successfully completed Neyveli Lignite Interest 0.34 0.44 0.54 0.41 0.44
Corporations order of Rs.7.5 crore in PBDT 5.02 2.93 3.96 4.10 5.84
February 2017. It entered FY18 with a
Depreciation 0.66 0.56 0.65 0.59 0.40
healthy order book followed by fairly
satisfactory execution figures in April/May PBT 4.36 2.37 3.31 3.51 5.44
2017. However, June 2017 was beset with Tax 1.40 0.92 1.10 1.05 1.78
looming uncertainties on account of GST Net Profit 2.96 1.45 2.21 2.46 3.66
implementation. Consequently, a host of EPS (Rs.) 5.51 2.70 4.12 4.58 16
customers put execution of their orders on
hold until further advice. Hopefully, GST linked glitches should get sorted out soon and smoothen order execution.
RCL has commenced production of Indexable Inserts. The management reported that in the first phase, extensive field
trials are under way in Maharashtra and Gujarat and the initial performance results are satisfactory. Alongside, a few
sales trial orders were also executed and more are in the process of materializing. The management is confident that the
pace of order inflow will gain momentum with GST related issues settling down.

A Time Communications Publication 12


Bonus: It had issued a 3:2 bonus in September 2013.
Dividend: RCL is an investor friendly company. It declared 15% dividend for FY17, Shareholding Pattern: (in %)
12% for FY16, 12% for FY15, 12% for FY15 and 40% for FY13. Promoters 32.04%
Opportunity: The overall outlook for the Mining sector looks bright. The order General Public 61.95%
book in other segments also shows signs of healthy momentum and this is expected Others 4.99%
to reflect in the next few quarters. Moreover, its newly launched Indexable Inserts Foreign Promoter 0.95%
project while initially concentrating on Milling Inserts presents a good opportunity N Banks Mutual Funds 0.04%
for diversifying into other Inserts like Turning Inserts, for which the market
Financial Institutions 0.03%
demand is favourable.
Total 100%
Conclusion: RCLs business is unique and it has a near monopoly. It is expected to
perform even better going forward with revival in demand from user industries and stability in raw material prices.
Steady growth, good management, resilience in a tough business environment, decent dividend yield, possible capacity
expansion, etc. makes this micro-cap stock an attractive buy. RCL is almost debt-free with a small equity capital backed
by healthy reserves. The stock is available around 32% below its 52-week high of Rs.96.40. All these factors make it a
worthy buy with a short/medium/long-term target of Rs.84/96-105/121-140+.
Performance Review of Stock Recommendations by Archana Jain
Sr. Recomm. Recomm. Highest since
Stock % Gain
No Date Rate (Rs.) (Rs.)
1 NLC India 25-07-16 76.85 123 60
2 Bartronics India 08-08-16 13.13 24.90 90
3 Unity Infraprojects 22-08-16 9.82 13.80 41
4 AVT Natural Products 26-09-16 29.65 51.30 73
5 DCM 03-10-16 81 156.10 93
6 Compucom Software 17-10-16 11.88 22.02 85
7 Zenith Fibres 07-11-16 192 211.50 10
8 Cords Cable Ind. 19-12-16 56.50 153.50 172
9 Lovable Lingerie 02-01-17 235.05 283.40 21
10 Andhra Bank 27-03-17 56.70 76.10 34
11 Gennex Lab. 03-04-17 4.80 7.89 64
12 Dena Bank 10-04-17 39.20 50 28
13 Texmo Pipes & Products 17-04-17 20.75 34.75 67
14 Sunil Hitech Eng. 24-04-17 14.09 16.24 15
15 Richa Industries 08-05-17 33.55 39 16
16 Pearl Global Ind. 10-07-17 167.75 178 6
17 Tantia Constructions 24-07-17 18.50 22.20 20
18 Hindustan Construction Co. 31-07-17 41.65 42.45 2
19 Rama Steel Tubes 07-08-17 133.70 195.75 46
20 CG Power & Industrial Sol. 02-10-17 77 90.55 18
21 Jindal Poly Films 16-10-17 287.20 463 61

PRESS RELEASE

Future Supply Chain IPO opens on 6th December


Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd (FSC), the logistics arm of Kishore Biyani-led Future Group, plans to raise Rs.650
crore through its IPO in the price band of Rs.660-664 for its Rs.10 paid-up equity share. The IPO is an offer for sale (OFS)
comprising 78,27,656 equity shares by Griffin Partners and up to 19,56,914 equity shares by Future Enterprises. The
offer will see a total stake dilution of 24.43%. The issue closes on Friday, 8 December 2017.
FSC is an organised third-party logistics service operator that operates through three segments Contract Logistics;
Express Logistics; and Temperature Controlled Logistics. It offers automated and IT-enabled warehousing, distribution
and other logistics solutions. As at 30 September 2017, it ran contract logistics operations through 42 distribution

A Time Communications Publication 13


centres across India and 2 distribution centres of customers. Its revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT have grown at 17% / 7.8% /
36.2% CAGR over the
last two years.
******* BEAT THE STREET 6
Shalby IPO A Performance Review
Fantastic returns from the 18th edition of Beat the Street 6 published on 11/09/17
opens on 5th Scrip Name Recomm. Rate Highest since % Gain
December (Rs.) (Rs.)
Dilip Buildcon 593.90 1009.10 70
Ahmedabad-based
DCM Shriram 431.05 598.50 39
multi-speciality
Ashok Leyland 115.05 133 16
hospital chain, Shalby
Bharat Forge 1161.60 1290 11
Ltd, plans to raise
Rs.505 crore through Tata Sponge Iron 893.80 987 10
its IPO in the price H T Media 102.30 108.80 6
band of Rs.245-248 for
its Rs.10 paid-up Good returns from the 17th edition of Beat the Street 6 published on 12/06/17
equity share. The issue Scrip Name Recomm. Rate Highest since % Gain
consists of a Fresh (Rs.) (Rs.)
Issue of equity shares Purvankara 66.70 158.05 137
aggregating up to Cholamandalam Inv. & Fin. Co. 1043.40 1355.05 30
Rs.4800 mn and an Reliance Industries 1335.50 1665 25
Offer for Sale (OFS) of Manappuram Finance 94.80 112.55 19
up to 10,00,000 equity Voltamp Transformers 1292.95 1340.05 4
shares by Vikram Shah Karnataka Bank 173.55 SL -
(selling shareholder).
The issue closes on Super returns from the 16th edition of Beat the Street 6 published on 06/03/17
Thursday, 7 December Scrip Name Recomm. Rate Highest since % Gain
2017. (Rs.) (Rs.)
Shalby operates 11 Sarda Energy & Minerals 244.70 526.95 115
multi-speciality Ajmera Realty & Infra India 189.55 355.70 88
hospitals with an Kalyani Steels 369.95 469.50 27
aggregate bed capacity Super Crop Safe 144.50 180 25
of 2,012. Its specialities Larsen & Toubro 1482.10 1834 24
encompass areas such IOL Chemicals & Pharma 91.50 SL -
as joint replacement
surgery, spine surgery, The Indian stock market offers an excellent opportunity to grow your investments.
neurology and We are in the middle of a long-term bull run and the recent correction gives a good
neurosurgery, cardiac opportunity to enter or reshuffle your portfolio. Some companies have posted
surgery and sports fantastic H1FY18 numbers while some have continued their poor performance. This
injury care. It also is the right time to pick quality stocks before the next leg of the rally.
provides outpatient
services through 47 The next issue of Beat the Street 6 will be published on 11 December 2017.
Outpatient Clinics and We will select 6 strong stocks that will yield handsome returns in coming days.
has 10 shared surgery So dont wait, subscribe to Beat the Street 6 today.
centres within third
party hospitals. Subscription Rate: 1 Qtr: Rs.2000, 2 Qtrs: Rs.3500, 3 Qtrs: Rs.5000, 4 Qtrs: Rs.6500.

MARKET REVIEW

RBI policy to dictate market trend


By Devendra A Singh

A Time Communications Publication 14


The Sensex tumbled sharply by 846.30 points to settle at 32832.94 while the Nifty closed at 10121.80 losing 267.90
points for the week ending Friday, 1 December 2017.
FM Arun Jaitley said that India has standardised itself for a 7-8% growth rate on the back of improving macroeconomic
fundamentals. Its already close to a $2.5 trillion economy in terms of GDP.
We have been able to keep our current account deficit under control and over the last few years, India has had
exemplary performance in terms of being able to bring down its fiscal deficit, he said.
India is getting closer to a situation where the country can spend what it earns and borrows relatively less. One major
challenge in India which directly impinges on the creation of world-class infrastructure is that India was largely a tax
non-complaint society, he added.
The funding requirement for infrastructure in the country is huge and the sector needs investments of Rs.50 lakh crore
over the next five years. India has spent Rs.60 lakh crore in infrastructure during 2007-17.
Recently, US-based Moodys upgraded Indias sovereign rating after a gap of 13 years to Baa2 with stable outlook from
Baa3 earlier citing improved growth prospects driven by economic and institutional reforms. This was followed by S&P
Global Rating, which kept Indias sovereign rating unchanged at BBB- with stable outlook.
The latest figures reveal that the Indian economy grew at 6.3% in the September quarter compared to 5.7% in the June
quarter, reflecting an improvement in the economy.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its year 2017 growth forecast for India to 7% from its July estimate of
7.4% reflecting short-term disruptions such as demonetisation and GST implementation. The bank increased its growth
forecast for Asia from 5.7% to 5.9% on the back of Chinas better-than-expected performance and a revival in global
trade and strong growth in the developed world. The bank upped its forecast for China to 6.7% in year 2017 from the
previously estimated 6.5%.
In Indias case, ADB expects medium-term benefits from GST. It expects growth next year to pick up to 7.4%, lower than
the previously estimated 7.6%.
Indias growth fell to a three-year low of 5.7% in the April-June quarter primarily due to the lingering effects of
demonetisation and the implementation of GST, which are expected to ease.
Key index edged up on Monday, 27 November 2017. The Sensex was up 45.20 points (+0.13%) to close at 33724.44.
Key index tumbled on Tuesday, 28 November 2017, on selling of equities. The Sensex was down 105.85 points (-0.31%)
to close at 33618.59.
Key index ended lower on Wednesday, 29 November 2017, on modest selling. The Sensex was down 15.83 points (-
0.05%) to close at 33602.76.
Key index tanked on Thursday, 30 November 2017, on profit-booking by the FIIs. The Sensex was down 453.41 points (-
1.35%) to close at 33149.35.
Key index settled lower on Friday, 1 December 2017, on selling by foreign funds. The Sensex was down 316.41 points (-
0.95%) to settle at 32832.94.
Events like national and global macro-
economic figures as well as the earnings
FOR WEEKLY GAINS
season will dictate the movement of the
markets and influence investor sentiment in
Fast...FocusedFirst
the near future. Fresh One Up Trend Weekly
The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing A product designed for short-term trading singling out one
Managers Index (PMI) and HSBC Services PMI stock to focus upon.
for November 2017 are scheduled for release Fresh One Up Trend Weekly (formerly Power of RS Weekly) will
in the first week of December 2017. identify the stop loss, buy price range and profit booking levels
along with its relative strength, weekly reversal value and the
The government is scheduled to release data start date of the trend or the turndown exit signals. This
based on WPI and combined CPI for urban and recommendation will be followed up in the subsequent week with
rural India for November 2017 by mid- the revised levels for each trading parameter.
December 2017. The RBI is set to hold a
Subscription: Rs.2000 per month or Rs.18000 per annum
credit policy review meet on Wednesday, 6 Available via email
December 2017. For a free trial call us on 022-22616970 or email at
The Chinese government is scheduled to moneytimes.support@gmail.com
unveil the macro-economic figures for

A Time Communications Publication 15


November 2017 in the first week of December 2017. Further, USAs macro data for November 2017 is scheduled for
release in the first week of December.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Nifty 10000-10050 important support


By Rohan Nalavade
In the previous edition, we had rightly stated that the bulls needed to cross 10450 to gain strong momentum while
below 10300, selling pressure will be seen. Last week, the Nifty broke the 10200 level and closed at 10120. Now, the
Nifty will gain strength only above 10250. 10050-10100 is a good support level for a bounce back to 10200-10250.
The December series is very important for the market as big moves are expected with Gujarat elections being held
around 9 December 2017. Positive results will trigger a big up-move while the market could react negatively to negative
results. 6 December 2017, a W.D. Gann date, is a very important time cycle date that will decide the monthly trend for
the December series.
Traders will find trading opportunities next week in Nifty and specific stocks. 10085 was the last major low recorded on
15 November 2017. A double bottom formation can be seen on the chart for a bounce back to 10200-10250-10300
levels.
Among stocks,
Ambuja Cements looks good at Rs.260-263 for upside levels of Rs.270-273 (SL: Rs.256).
Axis Bank looks good around Rs.530 for upside levels of Rs.540-545 (SL: Rs.527).
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries looks weak below Rs.529 for downside levels of Rs.520-515 (SL: Rs.533).

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Bang Overseas Ltd: Dark horse


(BSE Code: 532946) (CMP: Rs.40.30) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1992 and headed by Mr. Brijgopal Balaram Bang, Bang Overseas Ltd (BOL) provides fashion and ready-
to-wear fabrics to the apparel, textile and retail segments. From a textile trader, BOL progressed to conceptualising and
designing fashion fabrics and an outsourcing hub for textile companies in Turkey, Portugal, Mauritius and other
European countries. It has 4 subsidiaries - Vedanta Creations; A. S. Raiment Pvt Ltd; Bang Europa S.R.O; and Bang HK
Ltd.
BOL launched its Rs.70 crore IPO in January 2007 priced at Rs.200/share to set up a manufacturing unit, retail outlets,
warehousing and logistic facilities and for brand building and general corporate purposes. Its products are retailed
through 157 points of sales (POS) comprising own retail outlets, large format stores (LFS) like Shoppers' Stop, Pyramid,
Globus, the Loot, Saga and other multi-brand outlets (MBO) spread all over India. Its centralised warehousing and
logistics centre at Kalher Village in Maharashtra facilitates the supply-chain management. Its brands include Thomas
Scott, Italian Gold, Hammersmith, Bang & Scott, Bang Europa and FCC.
BOL has two fully-equipped and modern apparels manufacturing units in Bangalore - Reunion Clothing Company and
Formal Clothing Company. These state-of-the-art units manufacture flawless clothing for men. It has a manufacturing
unit in Europe (Macedonia) as well. Its manufacturing unit at Kolar district in Karnataka has a total installed capacity of
6,00,000 pieces per month. It has 41 retail outlets across India and 4 factories at Visakhpatanam, Bhiwandi and
Bangalore. Exports constitute ~30% of sales.
During FY17, BOLs net profit zoomed 382% to Rs.5.5 crore on 9% higher sales of Rs.175 crore fetching a consolidated
EPS of Rs.4 v/s Re.1 in FY16. During Q1FY18, net profit jumped 40% to Rs.1.7 crore on 16% lower sales of Rs.32.8 crore
fetching a standalone EPS of Rs.1.2. With an equity capital of Rs.13.6 crore and reserves of Rs.60.9 crore, its share book
value works out to Rs.55. Net debt of Rs.22 crore gives it a net DER of 0.3:1.
The $60 bn Textile industry plays a major role in the Indian economy and contributes ~11% to industrial production,
12% to export earnings and ~4% to the countrys GDP. The textile industry has been growing at 10% CAGR over the last
several years. Further, the Government of India has initiated a number of export promotion policies for the Textile

A Time Communications Publication 16


sector. In addition, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh offer special incentives for the textile industry. Thus, the
Indian textile industry is expected to grow to $140 bn by 2025 thereby providing huge growth opportunities.
Overall, the outlook for the Indian textile industry looks positive. In the 12th Five Year Plan, the government has set an
export target of $65 bn at 15% CAGR along with creation of 25 mn additional jobs. The inherent strengths and cost
competitiveness of the Indian textile industry is attracting major retailers and global brands such as Wal-Mart, Target
Gap, Marks & Spencer and Tesco to set up their sourcing hubs, which augurs well for this sector.
China has started losing apparel manufacturing competitiveness in the global market owing to its rising labor and
energy costs. Bangladesh and Vietnam lack integrated value chains and depend on imports for raw material and
intermediary products especially for cotton based apparel manufacturing, which is predominantly used in infant and
toddler apparel. Bangladesh also faces sporadic issues of social unrest and violation of safe working norms, which could
affect its future growth in apparel exports. All these concerns in competing countries will benefit the Indian apparels
industry especially infant and childrens wear.
While the developed economies like USA, EU28
and Japan are among the major consuming
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BOLs designers are provided full leverage to
use innovation in its clothing. Its products are Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
made from superior quality fabrics that meet sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
international standards and are ranged very returns against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
competitively. Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to
BOL closely follows both national and our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11
international clothing trends. Its wide range of January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked profit in
quality products has enabled it to develop a 125 stocks, 27 triggered the stop loss while 4 are still open and
strong customer loyalty. Its team works with are in nominal red.
innovative and matured fashion designers to Of the 138 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 20
manufacture highly fashionable clothing for November 2017 (46 weeks), we booked 7-37% profit in 101
men. It caters to the demand of leading stocks, 23 triggered the stop loss of 2-18% while 14 are still open.
international and domestic brands and also
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supplies high-end products under its own brand
Thomas Scott. subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
BOL is toning up its infrastructure. Based on the For more details, contact Money Times on
bright industry prospects, it is expected to post 022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
an EPS of Rs.5.5 in FY18 and Rs.7.5 in FY19. At Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
the CMP of Rs.40.30, the stock trades at a P/E of 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
7.3x on FY18E and 5.3x on FY19E earnings.
Branded players in this industry attract a higher P/E compared to mere yarn producers. A reasonable P/E of 12x will
take its share price to Rs.66 in the medium-term and Rs.90 thereafter. The stocks 52-week high/low is Rs.52.40/26.90.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Hindustan Tin Works CMI recommended at Rs.209.9 last week, zoomed to Rs.267

Ltd
appreciating 27% in just 1 week!
Triton Valves recommended at Rs.1797.65 last week, zoomed to
(BSE Code: 530315) (CMP: Rs.92.50) Rs.2069 appreciating 15% in just 1 week!
(FV: Rs.10) Pressman Advertising recommended at Rs.63.9 on 6 November 2017,
Incorporated in 1958, New Delhi based zoomed to Rs.87.70 last week appreciating 37% in just 3 weeks!
Hindustan Tin Works Ltd (HTWL) is a P G Foils recommended at Rs.123.6 on 26 June 2017 and once again at
leading manufacturer and exporter of high Rs.149.5 on 9 October 2017, zoomed to Rs.234.85 last week
performance cans, printed sheets and appreciating 90% in 5 months!
related components to consumer marketing

A Time Communications Publication 17


companies. Its clients include Asian Paints, Amul, Bikanerwala, DS Group, Del Monte, Danone India, Haldiram, Nestle
India, Patanjali, Reckitt Benckiser, etc. It supplies a diverse range of aerosol cans, food cans, beverage cans, baby food
cans and can components to a wide variety of food, beverages, baby food, health, beauty and luxury companies across
30+ countries in Africa, Australia, Europe, Middle East, New Zealand, USA and parts of South East Asia. Its fully
integrated and automated manufacturing facility is supported by high-speed automatic printing and lacquering
machines. Its 10 acre manufacturing facility in Murthal houses state-of-the-art machines imported from countries like
UK, Germany, USA, Taiwan, Italy, Switzerland, etc.
With an equity capital of Rs.10.4 crore and reserves of Rs.117.48 crore, HTWLs share book value works out to Rs.122.96
and its P/BV ratio stands at just 0.75x. The promoters hold 40.46% of the equity capital, which leaves 59.54% stake with
the investing public. GIC holds 4.81% stake, United India Insurance holds 5.02% stake and Subramanian P. holds 3.91%
stake. Recently, Neeraj Batra bought 1,15,510 shares at Rs.105.76.
For Q2FY18, HTWL posted 10% higher PAT of Rs.1.99 Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
crore on higher sales of Rs.73.71 crore fetching an EPS
Particulars Q2FY18 Q2FY17 H1FY18 H1FY17 FY17
of Rs.1.9. During H1FY18, PAT declined to Rs.3.4 crore
Sales 73.71 70.64 164.58 153.31 267.35
on higher sales of Rs.164.58 crore fetching an EPS of
Rs.3.26. Its H1 results were below expectation due to PBT 3.21 2.97 5.51 7 10.47
GST implementation. However, the company is likely to Tax 1.22 1.16 2.11 2.57 3.35
fare better in the second half of the fiscal due to strong PAT 1.99 1.81 3.40 4.43 7.13
demand from the FMCG space. It paid 10% dividend for EPS (Rs.) 1.90 1.74 3.26 4.26 6.85
FY17.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 15.78x. Based on its financial parameters, the HTWL stock looks quite
attractive at the current level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.82. On the upper side, it could zoom to
Rs.120-125 levels in the medium-term. Its all-time high is Rs.150.
*******

PCS Technology Ltd


(BSE Code: 517119) (CMP: Rs.26.40) (FV: Rs.10)
Established in 1983, Navi Mumbai based PCS Technology Ltd (PCS) is engaged in the business of computer peripherals,
software and related IT services. It offers infrastructure management services including remote support centre,
workplace support, data centre, managed maintenance, server and network support, roll out and one time solution and
virtualization solution services; and governance and risk consultancy services such as information security consulting,
risk assessment and compliance, business continuity planning/disaster recovery, information security audit, IT service
management consultancy and ITSM/InfoSec training services. It also provides healthcare software solutions comprising
hospital and laboratory information management systems; and audio video solutions and integration services for
conference/training rooms, briefing rooms, ballrooms, reception areas, etc. In addition, it offers IT service management
services; application services consisting of applications development and maintenance, product engineering, enterprise
services, portal and mobility, legacy modernization and testing services; GPS and GPRS based real time vehicle tracking
solutions; and staffing solutions. It serves capital markets and banking, manufacturing, retail, ITES and BPO, logistics and
transportation, insurance, communication and media, government, energy and utilities and healthcare industries.
With a total share capital of Rs.24.93 crore and reserves Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
of Rs.24.66 crore, PCS share book value works out to Particulars Q2FY18 Q2FY17 H1FY18 H1FY17 FY17
Rs.21.77 and its P/BV stands at just 1.26x. The Sales 3.10 6.48 7.74 14.87 25.86
promoters hold 70.16% of the equity capital, which
PBT 1.85 1.36 3.37 2.54 5.19
leaves 29.84% stake with the investing public.
Tax 0.11 0.27 0.66 0.51 1.05
For Q2FY18, PCS posted 61% higher PAT of Rs.1.74 crore PAT 1.74 1.08 2.71 2.03 4.20
on lower income of Rs.3.1 crore fetching an EPS of
EPS (Rs.) 0.96 0.41 1.37 0.78 2.01
Re.0.96. During H1FY18, PAT climbed 33% to Rs.2.71
crore on lower income of Rs.7.74 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.37.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 11.72x. Based on its financial parameters, the PCS stock looks quite attractive
for investment at the current level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.21. On the upper side, it could
zoom to Rs.33-36 in the medium-term.

A Time Communications Publication 18


BULLS EYE

KEC International Ltd


(BSE Code: 532714) (CMP: Rs.313.85) (FV: Rs.2)
By Pratit Nayan Patel
Company Background: Incorporated in 1945, RPG groups KEC International Ltd (KEC), together with its subsidiaries,
is primarily engaged in the business of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC). It designs, manufactures, tests,
supplies and erects transmission lines on turnkey basis and undertakes EPC projects of high voltage (HV) electrical
switching and distribution substations, distribution network, optical fiber networks (OFCs) and telecom towers as well
as HV/EHV cabling project works. It also manufactures power cables, jelly filled telecom cables and OFCs. It provides
railway infrastructure EPC turnkey solutions such as construction of bridges, buildings, platforms, workshop
modernization, etc. It carries out track works such as track laying and linking, preparation of ballast bed and earthwork
information; undertakes overhead electrification, traction substation and general electrical works for railway
electrification. It is engaged in interlocking works and outdoor and indoor supply and installation works for signaling
and telecommunication projects. In addition, it undertakes civil construction projects such as residential buildings,
industrial plants and commercial complexes; and integrated water and waste water management projects including
embankment and flood control, sewage and industrial effluent treatment, potable water treatment and distribution
projects. It also provides solar EPC services that include design and engineering, project execution, project management,
bid management and project feasibility analysis for solar photovoltaic power plants. It operates in 63 countries across
Africa, America, Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia.
Performance Review (Consolidated): (Rs. in crore)
Particulars Q2FY18 Q1FY18 Q2FY17 H1FY18 H1FY17 FY17 FY16
Net Sales 2132.15 1856.76 2050.69 3988.91 3777.70 8584.40 8421.56
Other Operating Income - - 23.48 - 45.21 - 94.77
Total Income From Operations 2132.15 1856.76 2074.17 3988.91 3822.91 8584.40 8516.33
Consumption of Raw Materials 1043.88 917.88 1014.26 1961.76 1884.39 4173.70 4128.68
Increase/Decrease in Stocks (10.83) (91.71) 8.02 (102.54) (41.32) (9.07) 19.35
Employees Cost 194.63 191.32 187.17 385.95 360.64 732.67 642.37
Depreciation 27.88 27.20 30.97 55.08 60.02 129.69 87.56
Other Expenses 688.63 662.94 679.39 1351.57 1284.29 2869.22 3046.64
P/L Before Other Inc., Int., Excpt. Items & 187.96 149.13 154.36 337.09 274.89 688.19 591.73
Tax
Other Income 5.73 9.82 5.50 15.55 10.51 28.87 10.26
P/L Before Int., Excpt. Items & Tax 193.69 158.95 159.86 352.64 285.40 717.06 601.99
Interest 57.23 63.12 59.61 120.35 131.61 253.61 277.43
P/L Before Tax 136.46 95.83 100.25 232.29 153.79 463.45 324.56
Tax 47.09 32.86 35.21 79.95 57.81 158.67 133.06
Net Profit 89.37 62.97 65.04 152.34 95.95 304.78 191.52
EPS (in Rs.) 3.48 2.45 2.53 5.93 3.73 11.85 7.45
Financials: With an equity capital of Rs.51.42 crore and huge reserves of ~Rs.1534.94 crore, KECs share book value
works out to Rs.62 as at 31 March 2017. The promoters hold 50.94% of the equity capital, Mutual Funds hold 18.91%,
FPIs hold 10.28% and LIC holds 1.7%, which leaves 17.93% stake with the investing public.
Performance Review: For FY17, KECs net profit soared 59% to Rs.304.78 crore from Rs.191.52 crore in FY16 on
higher sales of Rs.8584.40 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.11.85. PAT has grown at 36% CAGR over the last five years. In
Q2FY18, it reported sales of Rs.2132.15 crore with 37% higher net profit of Rs.89.37 crore v/s Rs.65.04 crore in Q2FY17
fetching an EPS of Rs.3.48. In H1FY18, net profit soared 59% to Rs.152.34 crore from Rs.95.95 crore in H1FY17 on sales
of Rs.3988.91 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.5.93.
Dividend: KEC is an investor-friendly company. It paid 80% dividend for FY17, 50% for FY16, 45% for FY15, 30% for
FY14, 25% for FY13 and 60% for FY12 and FY11.

A Time Communications Publication 19


Industry Overview: KECs largest business vertical is power transmission and distribution (T&D). India currently has
an installed generation capacity of 3,29,204 MW, transmission line length of 3,71,878 ckm and substation
transformation capacity of 7,49,935 MVA. The government envisages addition of 1,05,580 ckm of transmission lines and
2,92,000 MVA of transformation capacity between 2017-2022, necessitating a huge investment of ~Rs.260000 crore.
This is expected to unfold tremendous opportunities for players like KEC.
KEC has significant presence in the SAARC region and continues to consolidate its presence on the back of a good order
mix of transmission and substation projects. It has secured large orders in the international market and continues to
expand its outreach in the international substation arena, both in the GIS as well as AIS substation space. It has also
witnessed a significant uptick in its railways business. It has substantial order inflows and a robust order book backlog
of ~Rs.1600 crore. In its other businesses also, there is a huge opportunity and positive outlook.
Conclusion: KEC with a rich heritage of seven decades is a global leader in the power T&D EPC space with significant
presence in other verticals including cables, railways, solar and civil. Its order book is strong at ~Rs.14013 crore. Its
cable business witnessed a successful turnaround with PBT positive. It has the worlds largest capacity of 3,13,200 TPA
in the tower manufacturing segment and is currently executing projects in 37 countries.
Currently, the KEC stock trades at a P/E of 22.39x. Based on its financial parameters, the stock looks quite attractive for
investment. Investors can accumulate this stock between Rs.325-305 with a stop loss of Rs.285 for a price target of
Rs.425 in the next 12-15 months. The stocks 52-week high/low is Rs.337.95/130.5.

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be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of
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A Time Communications Publication 20


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A Time Communications Publication 21

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