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Macroeconomic Theory I
ECON222
Fall 2017
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 1 / 18
The Small Open Economy (SOE) Model
Financial markets are open to savers and borrowers wherever they live
=) the domestic real interest rate adjusts to equal the world interest rate
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 2 / 18
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 3 / 18
Implications of the SOE model
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 4 / 18
r
S(r)
rw
I(r)
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 5 / 18
r
S(r)
w
r
I(r)
d d
S1 I1 Sd, I d
Figure: SOE running a CA decit
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 6 / 18
r
S(r)
w
r2
w
r1
I(r)
d d
S1 Sd2 I2
d
I1 Sd, I d
Figure: Eect of rise in world interest rate
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 7 / 18
Example 1: A temporary adverse income shock
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 8 / 18
r
S1(r)
S2(r)
rw
I(r)
d
I 1d S2 S1d Sd, I d
Figure: Eect of a decline in current income
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 9 / 18
Example 2: permanent positive productivity shock
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 10 / 18
r
S(r)
rw
I2(r)
I1(r)
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 11 / 18
A large open economy model
Large open economies can aect the world real interest rate
Suppose there are only two large economies: home and foreign
,! idea can be extended to mutiple countries
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 12 / 18
Goods market equilibrium with large open economies
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 13 / 18
Home Foreign
r r
S(r) S(r)
a b c d
rw
I(r)
I(r)
d d d d d
I Hd SH
d S, I SF I Fd S, I
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 14 / 18
Home Foreign
r r
S(r) S(r)
r0
I(r)
I(r)
d d d d d d d
IH
d
SH S, I SF IF S, I
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 15 / 18
Why is Canadas real interest rate so low?
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 16 / 18
Figure: National Savings as % of GDP
Macroeconomic Theory I (ECON222) Savings & Investment in an Open Economy Fall 2017 17 / 18
6
e-Brief
16
14
12
10
Percent
0
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
05
04
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.
While new investment opportunities may be around the corner, they are not yet apparent. And the secular
decline in investment demand over the last three decades or so is unlikely to be significantly reversed over the
next several years given the very long cycles such demand is subject to. A reasonable assumption is therefore that
the intensity of business investment in the developed world will likely remain below its pre-financial crisis peaks
for the next three to 10 years. Continued low desired investment will therefore exacerbate the effects of high
desired savings on interest rates.
Conclusion
Over the next two to five years, central banks in most developed countries will likely need to raise rates as
economic conditions improve; the Bank of Canada expects the Canadian economy to return to full capacity by
the second half of 2015 (Bank of Canada 2013). There is disagreement about when, and the extent to which,
interest rates will need to rise as the economy returns to its potential. As we have argued in this E-Brief, the
normal or neutral rate, in Canada and elsewhere, is likely lower than that suggested by historical averages,
due to fundamental shifts in the determinants of desired saving and desired investment. The Bank of Canada will
therefore likely only need to take small, incremental steps on its way to normalcy.