2011 FuelCellAnnualReport 11 Executive Summary

EXECUTIV VE SU
UMMA ARY:
Fuel Cells
s Ann
nual Repor
R rt 2011
Markeet Deveelopmeent for Fuel C
Cells in the
Statio
onary, Portabl
P le, and Transport Se ectors
NOTE E: This doocument iss a free exxcerpt of a larger report.
If you
u are intere
ested in purchasing
p g the full rreport, ple
ease conttact
Pike Research
R at sales@
@pikerese earch.com m
Publish
hed 2Q 20
011
K
Kerry-Ann
n Adamsoon, Ph.D.
Research
h Directorr
Clint W
Wheelock
k
Presidentt
Fuel C
Cells Annua
al Report 2
2011
Se
ection 1
EXECUT
TIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Introdu
uction
The ado option of fuel cell-powereed products iss gathering iincreasing m momentum witthin a
wide sw
wath of applica ations. Althou
ugh not witho
out its setbackks, the shift frrom an R&D-b
based
industry
y to a fully com
mmercial one is well underrway.
The reaasons for the groundswell of interest in

n fuel cells arre as varied a
as the sectorrs that
are implementing the e technology. Indeed, fueel cell technoology is playiing a role in many
areas, from
f future-proofing homes, rolling out off-grid base station ns in rural A Africa,
decarboonizing transp port, and cle
eaning up p ports to redu ucing energyy dependencce on
oil-produ
ucing nations and increasing resilience in energy nettworks.
Due to this
t increasedd interest from
m a range of stakeholderss including go overnment, uttilities,
developers and the finance indus stry Pike Ressearch is pro oducing this aannual quantitative
overview
w of developm ments in the fuel cell indusstry. This repo
ort is not aime
ed at the lay rreader
but thos
se who are lo ooking for an understandin ng of the grow wth, or not, in
n key sectorss, and
their ap
pplications. Th
he three sectors covered in the reporrt are transpo ort, stationaryy and
portable
e within which
h some 30 plu us applicationss are measurred.
In our first Fuel Cellss Annual Rep port, Pike Ressearch aims to provide a benchmark fo or the
development of the industry. The e data publisshed in the reeport have be een gathered d from
primary sources an nd independ dently verifiedd. Compan ny-based infformation is kept
confidenntial; thus, the
e level of gran
nularity of the information p
provided in th
his report varie
es.
Also notte that Pike Researchs

R dataset only ccontains inform mation on un nits that have been
shipped d. This is norm
mally at fuel ce where clearly highlighted ccovers
ell system levvel, but also w
fuel cell stacks. The e report doess not track timme of sales, or annual revvenues, whicch can
differ fro
om time of shipment of sys stems due to growing orde er backlogs inn some compa anies.
In addition, Pike Res search does not provide any data on toys or educcation kits an nd the
forecastts do not include niche tra ansport or au xiliary powerr units (APUss). As of 2012, we
will inclu
ude a niche trransport and APU
A on in the fuel cell forecast.
projectio
1.2 Fuel Ce
ell Industry
y Sectors
Between n 2008 and 2010,
2 the fueel cell industryy experienceed a CAGR in n fuel cell sysstems
shipped of roughly 27 7%, which is lower than so ome industry commentatorrs would have e liked
to see. However, th his figure belies the fact th hat a number of companiies have shiftted to
er unit status. Profit at co
profit pe ompany levell is still elusivve, but a han
ndful of comp panies
have no ow taken the necessary
n firs
st step of makking a profit on each unit sold.
1.2.1 Station
nary Fuel Cell Sector
From 20 008 to 2010, the importan nce of the staationary fuel ccell sector be
ecame increasingly
clear. Approximately one-third of all fuel ccell systems shipped in 2009 were in the
stationary sector. By y the end of 2010, this fig
gure had incrreased to 50% %. Shipmentts are
continuing to pick up p speed due to the breadth h of applicatioons that are b
being targeted
d with
deploymments. Some big-ticket ma arkets such ass residential a
are already seeeing shipme
ents in
the tens
s of thousands s. These num mbers are pri marily being driven by the Japanese m market,
power foor grid-tied an
nd off-grid bas
se stations gl obally, and co
ombined heat and power ((CHP)
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s expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and m
may not otherwise be accessed or used, w
without the
esearch LLC.
express written permission of Pike Re
1
Fuel C
Cells Annua
al Report 2
2011
plants fo
or a variety of
o markets, inc
cluding hospiitals and hote
els. As a ressult of this ran
nge of
marketss, revenue fro om the statio
onary sector increased n nearly 30% b between 2009 9 and
2010.
1.2.2 Portab
ble Fuel Cell Sector
The porttable fuel celll sector has taaken somethiing of a beatin ng over the p
past few yearss, with
multiple delays in thee rollout of inte
egrated fuel ccells in perso
onal electroniccs. Today, th
hough,
it is clea
ar that many of the major OEMs, as w well as the sm maller indepen ndent portable fuel
cell commpanies, are pump-priming g this markett with externa
al battery rechhargers. The initial
foray into this appliccation occurre ed in 2009 w with the sale of 3,000 To oshiba Dynarrios in
Japan. Since then, a handful of other companiies have follo owed suit and more produccts will
be relea ased this yearr (2011).
Yet, succh success does not repre esent the endd game in thiis sector. Leegitimate questions
are beinng raised, including concerns about the e value add fo ge consumer. Still,
or the averag
the sizee of the opportunity relatted to using fuel cells to o power laptoops, smartph hones,
cameras s, etc. is certtainly large enough
e to susstain the con
ntinued develoopment of the fuel
cell stac
ck and systemm architecture e small and poowerful enough for this ap
pplication att least
in the sh
hort to mediumm term.
Note thaat the portablle sector saw application in

w a breakout a n the form of remote moniitoring
units duuring 2010. This
T is a glo
obal market, and a numb ber of fuel ce
ell companie
es are
positioning themselvees to become e more and m
more active in this space.
In terms
s of numbers, the portable fuel cell secttor actually log
gged a decre ease between n 2009
and 2010. However,, this decline was caused by the somew what artificial spike in 2009 due
to the Dynario sales.
1.2.3 Transp
port Fuel Ce
ell Sector
The trannsport fuel cell sector, whicch continues tto garner the highest level of press atte
ention,
also reccorded a dec cline in shipmments (of 10 0%) between 2009 and 2 2010. Busess and
light-dutty vehicles arre still being released in b
batches, there eby creating annual peakks and
troughs.. The niche transport
t sub
b-sector contin
nued to expe erience growtth, but some of the
longer-teerm applicatiions (e.g., tra ains and aerrospace) did not see anyy further pro ogress
between n 2009 and 2010.
2 Note that APUs a are still very much the poster child fo or the
transporrt fuel cell sec
ctor.

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2011
1.3 Electro
olyte Type
Lock in//lock out of electrolyte type
e is still clearrly not occurriing. In 2010, over 90% off units
shipped were low-te emperature fu uel cells, pre edominately polymer elecctrolyte membrane
(PEM) fuel
f cells annd direct me ethanol fuel cells (DMFC Cs). Howeve er, the same e two
electroly
ytes only mad de up 50% of the total meg gawatts shipp ped in 2010.
Chart 1.1
1 Global Megawatts
M of
o Fuel Cell Product
P Ship
pments by Ellectrolyte: 20
008-2010
100
D
DMFC AF
FC
80 M
MCFC PA
AFC
S
SOFC PE
EM
60
(MW)
40
20
-
200
08 2009 2010
(Sourrce: Pike Researrch)
1.4 Fuel Ce
ells and Go
overnment Positioning
P
In termss of governme ent positionin
ng, the big fou ur (the United
d States, Gerrmany, Japan n, and
South Korea)
K are still
s pushing their
t local in
ndustries forw ward with dirrect interventtionist
policies.. While this type of policy y remains ra re, more and d more counttries are beco oming
actively involved throough less direect action. Co ountries are aattempting to remove barriers to
market entry for micro
m CHP (mCHP), for example, in ndependent of the unde erlying
technoloogy. They arre establishing g job subsidie es for key hig
gh-tech industries and provviding
more su upport for thee transfer of technology
t frrom universities to the ma arket. The op ptimal
level of government involvement depends on an individua als point of vview of the role of
governmment. What is clear, howe ever, is that ffuel cell techn
nology is parrt of the soluttion in
the enerrgy portfolio of
o many counttries.

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Sec
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0
TABLE OF
O CONTENTS
Section 1 .......................................................................................................................................................... 1
Executive e Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Fuel Cell Industry Sectors s ................................................................................................................ 1
1 Stationarry Fuel Cell Sector......................................................................................................... 1
1.2.1
2 Portable Fuel Cell Sec
1.2.2 ctor ........................................................................................................... 2
1.2.3
3 Transporrt Fuel Cell Se ector ......................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Electrolyte Type................................................................................................................................ 3
1.4 Fuel Cells an nd Governme ent Positioning g .......................................................................................... 3
Section 2 .......................................................................................................................................................... 4
Introducttion and Glob bal Overview w of Drivers......................
. ....................................................................... 4
2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 Government--Level Drivers s ............................................................................................................... 5
2.2.1
1 Increase in Energy De emand ....................................................................................................... 5
2 Oil Price Volatility ....................................................................................................................... 6
2.2.2
2.2.3
3 Carbon EmissionsE ...................................................................................................................... 7
2.2.4
4 Energy SecurityS and Energy
E Resilie ence .................................................................................... 7
Section 3 .......................................................................................................................................................... 9
Developm ment by Secttor and Application: 2008 8-2010 ................................................................................. 9
3.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 9
3.2 Stationary Fu uel Cell Secto or ............................................................................................................ 13
3.2.1
1 Market Overview........
O ............................................................................................................... 14
3.2
2.1.1 CHP P Residentiial and Non-R Residential Un nits .............................................................. 17
3.2.1.1.1. Danish
D Micro Combined He eat and Powe er Demonstra ation Project ............................ 18
3.2.1.1.2. German
G Callu ux Program ............................................................................................. 19
3.2
2.1.2 Primme Power .................................................................................................................... 21
3.2
2.1.3 Bac ckup Power .................................................................................................................. 24
3.2.2
2 Technolo ogy Issues ................................................................................................................... 24
3.2
2.2.1 Cos st.................................................................................................................................. 25
3.2
2.2.2 Durrability .......................................................................................................................... 25
3.2
2.2.3 Standardization ................................................................................................................ 26
3.3 Transport Fu uel Cell Secto or ............................................................................................................. 27
3.3.1
O ............................................................................................................... 27
3.3
3.1.1 LDV Vs ................................................................................................................................ 32
3.3.1.1.1. Full-Size
F Pass senger Cars ......................
. .................................................................... 33
3.3.1.1.2. Microcars,
M Citty Cars, and Neighborhood
N d Electric Veh hicles ...................................... 33
3.3.1.1.3. MajorM Demonstration Progrrams ................................................................................. 33
3.3
3.1.2 Bus ses ............................................................................................................................... 34
3.3.1.2.1. Full F Size ...................................................................................................................... 34
3.3.1.2.2. Midibuses
M or Shuttle
S Buses s ....................................................................................... 34
3.3.1.2.3. Articulated
A ................................................................................................................... 35
3.3.1.2.4. Demonstration
D n Projects ............................................................................................... 35
3.3
3.1.3 APU Us ................................................................................................................................ 36
3.3
3.1.4 Forklifts ............................................................................................................................ 38
3.3
3.1.5 Other ................................................................................................................................ 38
3.3.2
3.4 Portable Fue el Cell Sector ............................................................................................................... 40

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3.4.1
O ............................................................................................................... 40
3.4
4.1.1 Con nsumer Electrronics...................................................................................................... 43
3.4.1.1.1. CompanyC Cas se Study Lillliputian ............................................................................. 44
3.4
4.1.2 Milittary.............................................................................................................................. 46
3.4.1.2.1. Military
M Fundin ng ........................................................................................................... 47
3.4
4.1.3 Other Remote Sensing ................................................................................................. 49
3.4.1.3.1. Remote R Sens sing Developm ments: 2010 ...................................................................... 49
3.4.2
Section 4 ........................................................................................................................................................ 53
Developmment by Country.............................................................................................................................. 53
4.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 53
4.2 Fuel Cell Shiipments ....................................................................................................................... 53
1 Shipments by Country
4.2.1 y .............................................................................................................. 56
4.2.2
2 MWs by Country C ....................................................................................................................... 58
4.3 North Americ ca ................................................................................................................................ 59
4.3.1
1 Special Focus: F United States ................................................................................................... 62
4.3
3.1.1 Statte of the U.S. Fuel Cell Ind dustry: 2010 ...................................................................... 62
4.3
3.1.2 Fun nding ............................................................................................................................ 68
4.3
3.1.3 Com mpanies ....................................................................................................................... 70
4.3.1.3.1. Bloom B Energy y (SOFC: Prim me Power: Un nited States) ................................................ 70
4.3.1.3.2. FuelCell
F Enerrgy (MCFC: CHP/Power C Pllants: United States) ................................... 71
4.3.1.3.3. IdaTech (PEM M: Telecom Backup Powerr: United State es) .......................................... 71
4.3.1.3.4. ReliOn R (PEM:: Telecom Backup Power: United Statess) ............................................ 72
4.3.1.3.5. UTC U Power (P PAFC: CHP/G Grid Strengthe ening: United d States) .................................. 72
4.3.2
2 Canada ..................................................................................................................................... 72
4.3
3.2.1 Fun nding ............................................................................................................................ 72
4.3
3.2.2 Com mpanies ....................................................................................................................... 72
4.3.2.2.1. Angstrom
A Pow wer (DMFC: Portable: P Can nada)............................................................ 72
4.3.2.2.2. Automotive
A Fuuel Cell Coop peration (AFC CC) Corp. (PE EM: Automotivve: Canada) ...... 73
4.3.2.2.3. BallardB Powerr Systems (PE EM: Stationarry, Niche Tran nsport: Canad da) .................... 73
4.3.2.2.4. BC B Hydro (Hy ydrogen Production and Re efueling: Can nada) ....................................... 73
4.3.2.2.5. Hydrogenics
H (PEM: Statio onary, Niche e Transport, Hydrogen P Production, E Energy
Storage: Can nada) ........................................................................................................................... 73
4.4 Asia Pacific ..................................................................................................................................... 74
1 Japan ........................................................................................................................................ 75
4.4.1
4.4
4.1.1 Fun nding ............................................................................................................................ 76
4.4
4.1.2 Com mpanies ....................................................................................................................... 77
4.4.1.2.1. Aquafairy
A (DM MFC: Persona al Electronics : Japan) ...................................................... 77
4.4.1.2.2. Fuji F Electric (P PAFC: CHP: Japan) J .............................................................................. 77
4.4.1.2.3. Honda H (PEM: LDV: Japan)) ........................................................................................ 77
4.4.1.2.4. Panasonic
P (PEM: resCHP: Japan)............................................................................. 78
4.4.1.2.5. Toyota T (PEM:: LDV: Japan)) ........................................................................................ 78
4.4.2
2 South Ko orea.............................................................................................................................. 78
4.4
4.2.1 Fun nding ............................................................................................................................ 79
4.4
4.2.2 Com mpanies ....................................................................................................................... 80
4.4.2.2.1. GS G FuelCell (PEM: Reside ential: South K Korea) ......................................................... 80
4.4.2.2.2. Hyundai-Kia
H (PEM:
( LDV: South S Korea) ................................................................... 80
4.4.2.2.3. LG L Chem (DM MFC: Portable e: South Kore ea) ............................................................... 81
4.4.2.2.4. POSCO P Powe er (MCFC: Grrid Strengthen ning: South K Korea)...................................... 81
4.4.2.2.5. SamsungS SDII (PEM, DMFC C: Portable, N Niche Transp port: South Ko orea) .................. 81
3 China ........................................................................................................................................ 81
4.4.3
4.5 Europe ............................................................................................................................................ 82
4.5.1
1 Germany y ................................................................................................................................... 83

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4.5 5.1.1 Fun nding ............................................................................................................................ 84

4.5.1.1.1. FederalF Funding .......................................................................................................... 84
4.5 5.1.2 Com mpanies ....................................................................................................................... 86
4.5.1.2.1. Baxi B Innotech (PEM: resCH HP: Germanyy).................................................................. 86
4.5.1.2.2. DaimlerD A.G. (PEM: LDV: Germany) G ......................................................................... 86
4.5.1.2.3. Hexis H (SOFC:: resCHP: Ge ermany) ............................................................................. 87
4.5.1.2.4. Proton P Motor (PEM: Niche Transport: G Germany) ..................................................... 87
4.5.1.2.5. SFC S Energy AG A (DMFC: Portable, P Nich he Transport, Small Station nary: German ny) . 87
Section 5 ........................................................................................................................................................ 88
Hydrogen n Refueling Stations S ....................................................................................................................... 88
Section 6 ........................................................................................................................................................ 89
Fuel Cell Industry Forrecasts: 2011-2017 .................................................................................................... 89
6.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 89
6.2 Fuel Cell Shiipments: 2011-2015 .................................................................................................... 90
6.3 Fuel Cell Installations: 2017 ........................................................................................................... 91
6.4 Fuel Cell Rev venue: 2017................................................................................................................ 93
Section 7 ........................................................................................................................................................ 94
Discussio on of Key Fle ex Points in the Industry y ......................................................................................... 94
7.1 Government Intervention................................................................................................................ 94
7.2 Mass Manufa acturing ....................................................................................................................... 95
7.3 Private Finan nce .............................................................................................................................. 95
7.4 New Companies Coming into the Mark ket ..................................................................................... 96
7.5 New Markets s Opening Up p .............................................................................................................. 96
Section 8 ........................................................................................................................................................ 97
Company y Directory ....................................................................................................................................... 97
Section 9 ........................................................................................................................................................ 99
Acronym m and Abbrev viation List ................................................................................................................... 99
Section 10
1 .................................................................................................................................................... 104
Table of Contents
C ........................................................................................................................................ 104
Section 11
1 .................................................................................................................................................... 107
Table of Charts
C and Figures.........
F .............................................................................................................. 107
Section 12
1 .................................................................................................................................................... 109
Scope off Study ............................................................................................................................................ 109
Sources and Methodo ology ......................................................................................................................... 109
Notes ............................................................................................................................................................. 110

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Sec
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1
TABLLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES
Chart 1.1 Global Megawatts of FuelF Cell Prod duct Shipmen nts by Electrolyte: 2008-20 010 ...................... 3
Chart 2.1 IEA Reference Energy y Scenario: 1980-2030 ........................................................................... 5
Chart 2.2 Average Monthly Price e per Barrel of o Oil FOB, W World Markets:: 2007-2011 ............................. 6
Chart 2.3 CO2 Emis ssions from Fossil
F Fuel forr Energy Gen eration, IEA B Base Scenariio,
World Ma arkets: 1990--2030 ........................................................................................................ 7
Chart 3.1 Fuel Cell Shipments by b Sector, Wo orld Markets: 2008-2010 ................................................... 9
Chart 3.2 Fuel Cell Cumulative Shipments
S byy Sector, Worrld Markets: 2 2008-2010 .............................. 10
Chart 3.3 Megawattts Shipped by y Sector, Worrld Markets: 2008-2010 .................................................. 11
Chart 3.4 Megawattts Shipped by y Electrolyte, World Marke ets: 2008-201 10 ........................................... 12
Chart 3.5 Fuel Cell Industry Rev venue by Sector, World Ma arkets: 2008--2010 ...................................... 13
Chart 3.6 Stationarry Fuel Cell Units Shipped by Companyy: 2010 ........................................................ 15
Chart 3.7 CHP, UPPS, and Non-U UPS Fuel Cell Units Shippe ed: 2008-201 10 ........................................... 16
Chart 3.8 Revenue from CHP, UPS, U and Non n-UPS Fuel C Cell Units Ship pped: 2008-2 2010 .................. 17
Chart 3.9 Developeer Mix of Com mpanies Developing or Ship pped Prime P Power Fuel Ce ell Units: 201 10 . 22
Chart 3.10
0 Projected
d Base Station n Deploymen nts: 2007-201 12 ................................................................ 23
Chart 3.11 Delphi Co ost Analysis for
f Its SOFC System: S 200 9 ................................................................. 26
Chart 3.12
2 Fuel Cell System Ship pments from the Transport Sector: 2008 8-2010.................................... 29
Chart 3.13
3 Fuel Cell Revenue from the Transp port Sector: 2 2008-2010 ................................................... 30
Chart 3.14
4 Shipments by Compan nies Operatin ng in the Tran sport Fuel Ce ell Sector: 20 010 .................... 31
Chart 3.15
5 Companies Shipping UnitsU Under 500 5 Systems in the Transp port Fuel Cell Sector: 2010 0 ... 32
Chart 3.16
6 Fuel Cell Forklift Shipmments by Reg gion, World M Markets: 2008 8-2010 .................................... 38
Chart 3.17
7 Global Po ortable Fuel Cell
C Shipmentts by Major A Application Are ea: 2008-201 10 ...................... 41
Chart 3.18
8 Revenue from the Porrtable Fuel Ce ell Sector: 20 008-2010 ..................................................... 42
Chart 3.19
9 Company y Profile in the
e Portable Fu uel Cell Secto or: 2010 ....................................................... 43
Chart 3.20
0 Location by Personal Electronics Shipments: 20 010 .............................................................. 45
Chart 3.21 Location of Companies with Stated Interest in U sing Fuel Cellls in Persona al
Electroniccs: 2010 ..................................................................................................................... 46
Chart 3.22
2 Compone ent Cost of Sm martphones ............................................................................................ 50
Chart 3.23
3 Cost/Proffit Margins of Current Sma artphones .......................................................................... 51
Chart 4.1 Fuel Cell Systems by Region of Shipment, World d Markets: 2 2008-2010 ............................... 53
Chart 4.2 Fuel Cell Shipments by b Region and d Electrolyte, World Marke ets: 2008-201 10 ...................... 54
Chart 4.3 Export/Loocal Use Fuel Cell Systems by Region, World Marke ets: 2008-201 10 ...................... 55
Chart 4.4 Fuel Cell System Ship pments by Co ountry of Manu ufacture: 200 08-2010 .................................. 56
Chart 4.5 Fuel Cell Stack Shipm ments by Coun ntry of Manufa acture: 2008 8-2010 ..................................... 57
Chart 4.6 MWs Shipped by Country of System m Manufacturre: 2008-201 0 ............................................ 58
Chart 4.7 Fuel Cell Shipments by b Sector, Norrth America: 2008-2010 ................................................. 59
Chart 4.8 Companies by Electro olyte Interest, North Americca: 2008-201 0 ............................................ 60
Chart 4.9 Company y Mix by Electrolyte Interes st, North Ame erica: 2010 ................................................. 61
Chart 4.10
0 U.S. and Non-U.S. Sy ystems Compa anies Measurred in Pike Re esearch Data aset: 2010 ........ 62
Chart 4.11 U.S. and Non-U.S. Fuel Cell System ms Shipped: 2008-2010 ................................................. 63
Chart 4.12
2 Units Useed in the U.S.. with U.S. an nd Overseas F Fuel Cell Staccks: 2008-20 010 .................... 64
Chart 4.13
3 Megawattts Shipped from U.S. and Non-U.S. Sysstems: 2008-2010 ..................................... 65
Chart 4.14
4 U.S. Systtems by Loca ation of Use: 2008-2010 ....................................................................... 66
Chart 4.15
5 Systems Used in the U.S.U by Units Made Locallyy and Units Im mported: 200 08-2010 ............. 67
Chart 4.16
6 Revenue from System ms Manufacturred in the U.S S. and from S Systems Manu ufactured
Outside the
t U.S.: 200 08-2010 ................................................................................................... 68
Chart 4.17
7 Fuel Cell Shipments by b Sector, Asia Pacific: 20 08-2010 ...................................................... 74

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Chart 4.18
8 Companies by Electro olyte Interest, Asia Pacific: 2008-2010 ................................................ 75
Chart 4.19
9 Funding for
f Fuel Cells s and Hydroge en, South Korrea .............................................................. 79
Chart 4.20
0 Fuel Cell Shipments byb Sector, Eurrope: 2008-2 2010 ............................................................. 82
Chart 4.21 Companies by Electro olyte Interest, Europe: 200 08-2010 ....................................................... 83
Chart 4.22
2 Federal Funding
F for Fu
uel Cells and Hydrogen, G Germany: 200 08-2010 .................................. 84
Chart 4.23
3 Funding by Sector, Ge ermany: 2008 8-2010 .............................................................................. 85
Chart 4.24
4 Total Fue
el Cell and Hy ydrogen Fund ding Through the German N NIP: 2007-20 015 ................... 86
Chart 5.1 Hydrogenn Refueling Stations,
S Worldd Markets: 2 008-2010 .................................................... 88
Chart 6.1 Fuel Cell Shipments byb Sector Area a, World Markkets: 2011-2015......................................... 90
Chart 6.2 Fuel Cell Units Installe
ed by Region,, World Marke ets: 2017 .................................................... 92
Chart 6.3 Fuel Cell Revenue Sp plit by Sector Area:
A 2017 ....................................................................... 93
Figure 2.1
1 Cleantech Driver Matrrix .............................................................................................................. 4
Figure 3.1
1 Two Gen nerations of Panasonic mC CHP Fuel Cell Units for Ressidential Use ......................... 18
Figure 3.2
2 Danish Micro
M Combine ed Heat and Power P Demo nstration Projject ......................................... 19
Figure 3.3
3 Residential CHP Deve elopment Map p of the Germ man National D Developmentt Plan................. 21
Figure 3.4
4 FuelCell Energy Publisshed Cost Do own ................................................................................... 25
Figure 3.5
5 CHIC Strrategy for Fue
el Cell Bus Inttroduction in E Europe ........................................................ 36
Figure 4.1
1 Overview
w of Japanese e Fuel Cell De evelopment R Roadmap: 20 005-2015 ................................. 76
Figure 7.1
1 aning Curve ................................................................................................................. 95
Solar Lea
Table 3.1 Overview

w Table of the Stationary Fuel Cell Secto or ................................................................ 14
Table 3.2 RD&D Re esources for Residential Fuel Cell CHP P at National L Level in Germ many:
15 ................................................................................................................................ 20
2007-201
Table 3.3 Downtimee Costs by Industry: 2011......................................................................................... 24
Table 3.4 w Table of the Transport Fu
Overview uel Cell Secto or ................................................................. 27
Table 3.5 U.S. DOE
E LDV Progra am Targets.............................................................................................. 39
Table 3.6 U.S. DOT
T Fuel Cell Bu us Targets .............................................................................................. 39
Table 3.7 Overview
w Table of the Portable Fue el Cell Sectorr ................................................................... 40
Table 4.1 EERE Buudget: FY 2009-FY 2021 ............................................................................................ 69
Table 4.2 U.S. DOE
E Hydrogen and a Fuel Cells s Budget Brea akdown by Su ubprogram: 2 2009-2012 ........ 70

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Fuel C
Cells Annua
al Report 2
2011
Sec
ction 12
2
SCOPE OF STU
UDY
Pike Research has prepared

p this report to prrovide both d
direct and in
nterested stakeholders wiith an
analytical overview off the status of the global fuel cell inddustry. The e report exam
mines fuel ce ells in
stationary
y, portable, an
nd transport applications,
a with
w a focus on the period d of 2008-20110. It also re
eviews
the main technology
t ty
ypes and inforrmation from key companiees.
The reporrts purpose iss not to provid

de an exhaus stive technicaal assessment of the techn nologies. Ratther, it
aims to offfer a strategic assessmen nt of current market
m positio
oning, industryy issues, and
d projections b
based
on busineess-as-usual (BAU) scena arios. Pike Research sttrives to iden ntify and exa amine new m market
segmentss to aid reade ers in the deevelopment of o their busine ess models. All major global region ns are
covered and
a the foreca ast period extends through h 2017.
SOU ND METH
URCES AN HODOLOG
GY
Pike Rese earchs indus stry analysts utilize a varie

ety of researrch sources in
n preparing R Research Re eports.
The key component
c of Pike Resea archs analysiis is primary research gaiined from phone and in-p person
interviewss with industrry leaders inc
cluding execu utives, engine
eers, and marrketing professsionals. Analysts
are diligen
nt in ensuringg that they sp
peak with representatives ffrom every pa art of the valu
ue chain, inclluding
but not liimited to tecchnology com mpanies, utilitties and otheer service prroviders, induustry associa
ations,
governme ent agencies, and the inves stment comm munity.
Additional analysis inc

cludes second
dary researchh conducted by Pike Researchs analyysts and the firms
staff of re
esearch assis
stants. Wherre applicable,, all seconda
ary research ssources are appropriatelyy cited
within this
s report.
These primary and se econdary res search source es, combined d with the an nalysts indusstry expertise
e, are
synthesizeed into the qualitative
q andd quantitativee analysis preesented in PPike Research hs reports. Great
care is tak
ken in makingg sure that all analysis is well-supporte
w ed by facts, bu
ut where the facts are unkknown
and assum mptions mustt be made, an nalysts docum ment their asssumptions an nd are preparred to explainn their
methodolo ogy, both with
hin the body of
o a report and in direct co nversations w with clients.
Pike Reseearch is an in
ndependent market
m researrch firm whosse goal is to present an o
objective, unbbiased
view of market
m opportuunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not be eholden to an
ny special inte erests
and is thu
us able to off
ffer clear, acttionable advic
ce to help cliients succeedd in the industry, unfetterred by
technolog
gy hype, politic
cal agendas, or emotional factors that aare inherent in
n cleantech m
markets.

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Fuel C
Cells Annua
al Report 2
2011
NOTES
Global No
orth: The Glo obal North re efers to the 57
5 countries with high hu uman developpment that ha
ave a
Human Development Index
I above .8 as reportedd in the Unite
ed Nations Deevelopment P
Programme RReport
2005. Moost, but not all, of these co
ountries are lo
ocated in the Northern Hem
misphere
CAGR reffers to compo

ound average annual growth rate, using
g the formula:
CAGR = (End
( Year Va ear Value)(1/steps) 1.
alue Start Ye
CAGRs presented
p in the tables are
e for the entirre timeframe in the title. W
Where data ffor fewer years are
given, the
e CAGR is fo
or the range presented. WhereW releva
ant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be
given as well.
w
Figures are
a based on the best estimates
e av
vailable at th
he time of ccalculation. Annual reve enues,
shipmentss, and sales are
a based on end-of-year figures
f unlesss otherwise n
noted. All values are expreessed
in year 20
011 U.S. dolla
ars unless oth
herwise noted. Percentagees may not addd up to 100 ddue to rounding.

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Fuel C
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2011
Published 2Q 2011
2011 Pike
P Research LLC
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e 300
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Tel: +1 303.997.760 09
http://wwww.pikeresearch h.com
This publication is pro ovided by Pike Research h LLC (Pike). This pub blication mayy be used on nly as
expressly permitted by y license from
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distributed
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Pike. No otwithstandingg the foregoiing, Pike ma akes no claim m to any Govvernment da ata and otherr data
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cation (whethher or not the owners of su uch data are noted
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h a license
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EXECUTIV VE SU

The reaasons for the groundswell of interest in

Also notte that Pike Researchs

2011 Pike Research LLC.

Note thaat the portablle sector saw application in

2011 Pike Research LLC.

(Sourrce: Pike Researrch)

2011 Pike Research LLC.

2011 Pike Research LLC.

2011 Pike Research LLC.

4.5 5.1.1 Fun nding ............................................................................................................................ 84

2011 Pike Research LLC.

2011 Pike Research LLC.

Table 3.1 Overview

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Pike Research has prepared

The reporrts purpose iss not to provid

Pike Rese earchs indus stry analysts utilize a varie

Additional analysis inc

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CAGR reffers to compo

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2011 Pike Research LLC.

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