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Weeks 2 nd & 3 rd TA3114 Mining Geostatistics   Theory of Regionalized
Variables

Introduction

• It has been known two methods for statistical analysis of mineral deposit characterization: classical statistics and spatial statistics.

• Classical statistical is used to define the properties of sample values with assumption that sample values is realization of random variables.

Samples composition/support is relatively ignored, then assumed that all sample values in the mineral deposit have the same probability to be picked up.

• The presence of trends and ore shoots in mineralization zones can be ignored.

• The fact in earth sciences shows that two samples taken in vicinity gives the similar value compared to the others in further distance.

• In contrary, spatial statistics is used if the sample values are realizations of random function.

• In this hypothesis, sample values is function of their locations in deposit and their relative position is considered in analysis.

• The similarity of sample values which is function of the samples distance is the basics theory in spatial statistics.

• In order to define how closely the spatial correlation among points in deposit, we must know the structural function which is represented by variogram model.

• Defining variogram model is the first step in spatial statistics (geostatistics) analysis.

• Principally, the calculation in geostatistics needs computer assistance.

• GAMV is a program packet for variogram calculation, while KB2D and KT3D are program packets for 2D and 3D kriging application. Both packets are included in GSLIB (Geostatistical Software Library, by Deutsch and Journel, 1998).

SGeMS (Stanford Geostatistical Earth Modeling Software, by Remy, 2004) is public domain or open source software packet for 3D geostatistical modeling.   What is geostatistics? Prof. Matheron (1950): Geostatistics
has been defined as "the application
of probabilistic methods to
regionalized variables", which
designate any function displayed in
a real space.

Application of geostatistics in mining

1.Estimating the total reserves

2.Error estimates

3.Optimal sample (or drilling) spacing

4.Estimating block reserves

5.Gridding and contour mapping

6.Simulating a deposit to evaluate a proposed mine plan

7.Estimating the recovery Regionalized Variables

• A variable is regionalized when it is distributed in space and characterize a certain phenomena, i.e. metal grade in mineralization zone.

• Mathematically, regionalized variable {f(x)} is realization value of random function {F(x)} located in each points x in space.

• Generally in all deposit, characteristics or variability structure in space of regionalized variables is known by locally erratic aspect (i.e. the presence of richer zones from the others).

• Samples taken in the richers zones will have higher average values compared to the ones taken in the poorer zones, so that the value of regionalized variable f(x) depends on the position or location in space x.

• But generally (in average) the value of regionalized variable will show structurally aspect with a certain function. (Source: Armstrong, 1998)

1. Concept of Random Function

Random variable z(x) is variable which has certain numerical value based on the certain probability distribution, i.e.: variable related to drillhole, z(x i ), has location or position on point x i .

Random function Z(x) is collection of all random variables z(x) in deposit or {Z(x), x deposit}.

Regionalized variable f(x) can be considered as the realization of random variable z(x).

The definition of random function discusses random aspect and structural regionalized variable as:

a. Locally on point x i , z(x i ) is random variable.

b. Z(x) is a random function for each collection of points x i and x i+h , while

random variables z(x i ) and z(x i+h ) themselves are not random function. Generally z(x i ) and z(x i+h ) are independent, but both are connected by

position/structural space of regionalized variable f(x).

2. Hypothesis on Regionalized Variable and Variogram

Because of the presence of erratic aspect on regionalized variable, the direct analysis on this variable is not possible done, therefore some hypothesis are necessary.

a. Matemathical Expectation (First Moment Order)

Mathematical expectation is defined as character or value which is representative of a population.

If distribution of random function Z(x) has expectation, the general expectation is function of x, or defined as:

E{Z(x)} = m(x)

x

(1)

b. Second Moment Order

There are three second moments order which are considered in geostatistical analysis:

1. Variance of Z(x) Variance is defined as the expectation around m(x) or:

Var{Z(x)} = E[{Z(x) – m(x)} 2 ]

x

(2)

Variance in general is also function of x.

2. Covariance Covariance of z(x i ) and z(x i+h ) are:

C(x i , x i+h ) = E [Z(x i ).Z(x i+h )] - m(x) 2

(3)

3. Semivariogram Semivariogram function is defined as variance of increment or the difference between {z(x i ) – z(x i+h )} or:

2 γ

(x

i

, x

i + h

)

=

Var[z

(x )

i

or practically is:

(

2γ h

)

=

N

i = 1

[

(

z x

i

)

(

z x

i

z

(x )]

i + h

+

h

)]

2

(

/ N h

)

(4a)

(4b)

N(h) is the number of data pairs, while h is multiplication of the average distance among samples location (lag).

c. Stationarity Hypothesis

• This hypotesis exist from the definition that covariance and semivariogram functions depends simultaneously on two points support x i dan x i+h .

• Variable is said stationary if its distribution is “invariant under translation”.

• A stationary random function is “homogeneous” and “self-repeating in space”, i.e. in the increment of h, distribution of Z(x 1 ), Z(x 2 ), …, Z(x k ) is the same as distribution of Z(x 1+h ), Z(x 2+h ), … Z(x k+h ).

• Stationarity requires all mathematical moments are “invariant under translation”, but in general this condition is not easy to be fulfilled because of the limitation of experimental data, so that only the two first moments (mean and variance) are assumed to be constant.

• This hypothesis is considered to be weak, so that there is other next hypothesis: “second order stationarity” expectation value (mean) of Z(x) must be constant for all values of x. not-stationary
stationary

d. Second Order Stationarity

A random function is said having second order stationarity if:

1. The mathematical expectation E{Z(x)} exist and not depends on the support point of x, or:

E{Z(x)} = m(x) = m

x

(5)

2. For each pairs of random variables {z(x), z(x+h)} will present covariance and depends on distance h, or:

C(h) = E[{Z(x+h) – m} · {Z(x) – m}] = E{Z(x+h) · Z(x)} – m.E{Z(x+h)} – m.E{Z(x)} + m 2 = E{Z(x+h) · Z(x)} – m 2 m 2 + m 2

C(h) = E{Z(x+h) · Z(x)} – m 2

x

(6)

h defines vector coordinates (h u , h v , h w ) in 3D space.

Stationarity of covariance means the stationarity of variance and variogram.

The following relationship can be determined from the above definition:

1. Var {Z(x)} = E [{Z(x) – m} 2 ]

= E [Z(x) ·Z(x)] m 2

= C(0)

2. γ(h) = ½ Var[Z(x+h) Z(x)] = ½ E[{Z(x+h) Z(x)} 2 ] = ½ E{Z(x+hZ(x+h)} – E{Z(x+hZ(x)} + ½ E{Z(xZ(x)} = E{Z(xZ(x)} – E{Z(x+hZ(x)} = {C(0) + m 2 } – {C(h) + m 2 } γ(h) = C(0) – C(h)

(7) (8) • Practically the stationarity hypothesis is not easy to fulfill the condition of a certain data distribution, especially if the it contains “trend”, which is the means can not be assumed to be constant for all points x to be “non-stationary” regionalized variable.

• Matheron (1963, 1965) “intrinsic hypothesis”

e. Instrinsic Hypothesis

In this hypothesis is assumed that the increment of random function is weakly stationary, which means that the mean and variance of increment Z(x+h) Z(x) exists and not depend on point x, or:

 E[Z(x+h) – Z(x)] = 0 ∀ x (9) and Var[Z(x+h) – Z(x)] = E[{Z(x+h) – Z(x)} 2 ] = 2 γ (h) ∀ x (10)

Stationary regionalized variable will always fulfill instrinsic hypothesis, but the opposite condition is not always valid. If a regionalized variable is stationary, so that the variogram ( γ(h)) and its covariance (C(h)) will be equivalent.