Science of the Total Environment 439 (2012) 129135

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Science of the Total Environment

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island:

Water resources sustainability
Xiong Ni a, b, Yanqing Wu a,, Jun Wu c, Jian Lu c,, P. Chris Wilson c
a
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, PR China
b
Shanghai Water Information Center, Jiangsu Road 358, Shanghai 200050, PR China
c
Indian River Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Fort Pierce, FL 349453138, United States

H I G H L I G H T S

Water sustainability and water availability of Chongming Island were investigated.

A serious situation of water demand being higher than water supply is predicted.
Rapid socioeconomic development, better environmental protection, and sustainable development policy are needed.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the
Received 22 July 2012 world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each in-
Received in revised form 13 September 2012 dustry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efciency, this study performed a sce-
Accepted 14 September 2012
nario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to
Available online 11 October 2012
assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher
Keywords:
than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be
Multi-objective 2.22 108 m3 from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand
Water resources carrying capacity growth volume will be 2.74 10 8 m 3 and 2.64 10 8 m 3, respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water
Chongming Island use benet under both high and low development modes. The water use benet will be about 50 CNY/m 3
Scenario analysis under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization
Sustainable development of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to
future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,
Scenario II is nally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic
development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of
Chongming Island in the future.
2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction sustainable development in a region. Furthermore, the information

Water is the most essential resource for the sustainable develop-
ment of human society and for basic support of all human and natural
systems (Chen et al., 2000; Bao and Fang, 2007). However, the prob-
lem of measuring water sustainability properly or calculating water
resources supporting ability is the most serious issue for sustainable
management of water resources (Bulkley, 1995; Giupponi et al.,
2004; Kelly and Aris, 2007). Water resources carrying capacity
(WRCC) (which includes the dynamic prediction of water resources
balance between water demand and supply, and effective capacity
evaluation as well as optimized allocation of water resources) may
provide a solution to the above problems to achieve the goal of
Corresponding authors. Tel.: +86 21 34203731; fax: +86 21 54747461.
E-mail addresses: wuyanqing@sjtu.edu.cn (Y. Wu), lujian.leonard@gmail.com (J. Lu).
of WRCC is likely to be a helpful tool for policy makers at all levels (lo-
cally, regionally, and nationally).
In general, the idea of carrying capacity has its origins in biology.
The term has been used to indicate the maximum number of individ-
uals of a species that can be sustained by an environment without
decreasing the capacity of the environment to sustain the same max-
imum number of individuals in the future (Botkin and Keller, 1995).
The traditional concept of water resources management could not
meet the requirement of water resources management for sustain-
able development in recent decades. Increasingly, researchers and
policy makers are advocating sustainable development as the best ap-
proach to the problems of today and the future (Loucks, 2000). In
light of sustainability, water resources carrying capacity simulta-
neously requires three principles: 1) sustaining water resources secu-
rity, 2) improving water usage efciency, and 3) preserving the

0048-9697/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.09.031
130 X. Ni et al. / Science of the Total Environment 439 (2012) 129135
natural environmental system. Therefore, ecosystem conservation
and interactions among socioeconomicenvironmental entities must
be integrated into one system, which reects the sustainable charac-
teristics (Slocomble, 1998; Matondo, 2002).
The multi-objective optimization program has been widely ap-
plied to water resources planning because it is a reliable tool for deal-
ing with complicated systems (Chang et al., 1995; Wang et al., 2006;
Kentel and Aral, 2007; Han et al., 2008). It can incorporate various
system components in a single framework and efciently coordinate
and optimize objectives. Compared to traditional multi-objective pro-
grams, the multi-objective WRCC (MWRCC) model associated with
scenario analysis can provide managers with expected results under
different supplyuse scenarios, which accelerates the development
of the solution and allows efcient optimization of the nal manage-
ment strategy. As an aid for planning, scenario development is fo-
cused on developing alternative visions of the future. It originated
in the late 1960s and early 1970s as key proponents, such as the
Stanford Research Institute, Hudson Institute, and RAND Corpora-
tion, undertook a number of studies designed to encourage
systemsanalytical, multi-faceted, and holistic thinking about the
future (Thomas, 1994). Scenario analysis is highly applicable to
mid- and longrange (10 years or more) future studies where
there are considerable levels of both predictability and uncertainty.
This powerful tool has been proven for imagining possible future sit-
uations in which decisions may be played out, and for asking what
if questions to explore the consequences of uncertainty (Koch et al.,
2005; Peter and Lorne, 2007). For example, a systematic scenario
process in the context of local sustainability planning was outlined
in Ireland (Kelly et al., 2004). At a regional level, scenario analysis
was performed in planning for sustainability in the Willamette
Basin of Oregon (Baker et al., 2002). At the global scale, scenarios
were central elements of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
(MEA) for exploring changes in ecosystem services and their inu-
ences on human well-being (Carpenter et al., 2006).
Chongming Island, the largest alluvial island in the world, has be-
come a key ecological protection area in need of a sustainable devel-
opment strategy in China (Yuan et al., 2003). At present, the
ecological island project for Chongming Island has been an impor-
tant part of the ecological economy and sustainable development in
China (Yuan et al., 2003). With the socioeconomic and urban devel-
opment of Chongming Island, water demand is growing rapidly.
Fig. 1. The geographical position of Chongming Island.
Therefore, research on the water resources carrying capacity of
Chongming Island and making adjustments to the water utilization
structure of each industry are crucial to the construction of an eco-
logical island, which could help the government make wise decisions
regarding the allocation of limited water resources and increase local
water use efciency (Kechagias and Katsifarakis, 2004). This study
developed a modeling framework combining multi-objective analysis
and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to perform a scenario analysis in
dealing with the complexities of conict resolution involved in local
water resources planning for Chongming Island. The primary objec-
tives of the study were: (1) to investigate and analyze the present
water resources status on Chongming Island; (2) to predict the
water resources balance between supply and demand, as well as to
determine water resources carrying capacity under different scenari-
os by 2020; and (3) to provide one best scenario and make some pre-
liminary policy recommendations to ensure the sustainable use of
water resources by means of optimized allocation.
2. Study area
Chongming Island is located in the lower Yangtze Estuary, which is
between 1210912154E and 31273151N (Fig. 1). Its current
area is 1200 km2. It is still increasing in size by about 500 ha annually
through the deposition of sediments by the Yangtze River. It supported
a population of about 635,000 people in 2005. At present, Chongming
has two water sources. One is the Nanheng River on Chongming Island;
the other is the Yangtze River. The annual water resources volumes are
35.37 10 8 m 3, 33.60 10 8 m 3, 32.15 108 m 3, and 31.05 108 m 3 at
given guaranteed efciencies of 20, 50, 75, and 90%, respectively
(Chongming Water Resource Bureau, 2006). Among them, the water re-
sources volumes from the Yangtze River are 31.92 10 8 m 3,
30.15 10 8 m 3, 28.70 108 m 3, and 27.60 10 8 m 3, respectively
(Chongming Water Resource Bureau, 2006). The water quality is classi-
ed as category IV (a water body with quality IV refers to general indus-
trial water zones and water recreation areas where no direct contact
with humans occurs) according to the Chinese government standard
for water quality issued in 2002 (GB3838-2002). According to water re-
sources plan for Chongming Island, four new water supply plants will
have been completed by 2010, which will increase the water supply
volume by about 1.31 108 m3 annually.
 X. Ni et al. / Science of the Total Environment 439 (2012) 129135 131

3. Materials and methods Table 2

Water use quota from 2010 to 2020 on Chongming Island.

3.1. Data acquisition Year 2010 2015 2020

Scenarios B1 B2 B1 B2 B1 B2
In order to perform a rational scenario analysis using the WRCC
Available water supply 9.58 6.99 10.55 7.39 11.80 7.89
model, various raw data involving many aspects, such as society, econo-
(108 m3)
my, ecology, environment, and water resources were obtained from the Water use volume of unit 355 365 210 215 117 123
Local Ofcial Agency (Chongming Environmental Protection Bureau, GDP (m3/104 CNY)
2007; Chongming Island County Government, 2005; Chongming Industrial water use quota 47 49 41 44 36 40
Statistics Bureau, 2006; Chongming Water Resource Bureau, 2006, (m3/104CNY)
Agricultural irrigation quota 26.8 28.3 24.6 25.9 22.7 23.8
2007; Shanghai Statistics Bureau, 2005; Shanghai Water Resource (m3/ha)
Bureau, 2005, 2006). To obtain more useful data, several eld surveys Domestic water quota in 192 200 241 247 260 280
were also made since 2005. For a few data sets with patchy, incomplete, town (l/day-person)
or decient data, extensive investigation or interpolation data were used Domestic water quota in 138 156 167 179 200 220
rural district
to make the data sets complete.
(l/day-person)
Comprehensive domestic 159 168 203 229 235 254
water quota (l/day-person)
3.2. Scenario design and combination

In this study, scenario analysis is the base of the computation of

WRCC, and many model variables and initialization values were de-
veloped in this section. The scenarios of the future related to WRCC
were simplied into three subsystems for special analysis: economy
development, water resources exploitation, and environment protec-
tion. The planning years of scenario analysis are 2010, 2015, and
2020, respectively.
Chongming Island will experience an important transformation
period of economic structure in the next ten years. The investment
rate can be set from 35% to 45%. After ten years, the investment rate
may decline to the range of 2535%. Economy growth with high and
low speed was set as Scenario A1 and Scenario A2, respectively. The
scenario values of the economy growth rate were calculated using
an econometrical model (Anaman, 2004) (Table 1).
The high and low water resources exploitation levels were set as
Scenario B1 and Scenario B2, respectively. According to the related
survey, the water resources investments on water supply engineer-
ing, agricultural water saving engineering, industrial water saving en-
gineering, and sewage treatment engineering cost about 3.82, 3.12,
2.75 and 5.50 CNY (Chinese Yuan)/m 3, respectively (Chongming
Water resource Bureau, 2006). With respect to scenario values of eco-
nomic development and the related water resources report, the total
available water resources on Chongming Island under the guaranteed
efciency of 75% were estimated (Table 2). The water use quota was
affected by four factors including local scientic and technological
level, industry structure, natural conditions, and water resources
management level. On the basis of the inuencing factors as well as
its changing rule, the tendency method was adopted to estimate the
concrete consumption quota indexes (Table 2), including the water
use volume of unit GDP (gross domestic product), industrial water
use quota, agricultural irrigation quota, and domestic water quota.
The low and high environmental protection levels were set as Scenar-
ios C1 and C2, respectively. The total area of forest and grass in 2005 on
Chongming Island was 1.76104 ha, accounting for 16.8% of the total is-
land area (Chongming Statistics Bureau, 2006). According to the stan-
dard of national ecology demonstration district, the 2.43104 ha forest
and grass area needs to increase. The increased area of forest and grass
was given in Table 3. At present, the irrigation area of Chongming Island
is about 4.55104 ha. The estimated irrigation areas under different sce-
narios were also given in Table 3.
Based on the above scenario analysis in the aspects of economic de-
velopment, water resources exploitation, and environment protection,
the following four scenario combinations were identied in this study:
A1 +B1 +C1 (Scenario I), A1 +B1 +C2 (Scenario II), A2 +B2 +C1 (Sce-
nario III) and A2 +B2 +C2 (Scenario IV). For example, Scenario I
addressed the concern for economy development with high speed,
high water resources exploitation level, and low ecology and environ-
mental protection level. Scenario II addressed the concern for economy
development with high speed, high water resources exploitation level,
and high ecology and environmental protection level. Scenario III
addressed the concern for economy development with low speed, low
water resources exploitation level, and low ecology and environmental
protection level. Scenario IV addressed the concern for economy devel-
opment with low speed, low water resources exploitation level, and
high ecology and environmental protection level.
3.3. Multi-objective WRCC model
To realize sustainable utilization of regional water resources, to
improve water use efciency, and to promote the harmonious devel-
opment of the economy, society and environment, a water resources
carrying capacity multi-objective programming model for Chongming
Island was developed based on the system analysis and sustainable
development principle according to many related studies (Harris
and Kennedy, 1999; Faye et al., 2005; Cuadra and Bjorklund, 2006;
Jolanta and Zaneta, 2007). The multi-objective WRCC model includes
three important parts: objective function, constraints, and solution
techniques. Fuzzy logic is used to express accurately the constraints.
This study has four objectives: maximum GDP per capita, minimum
sewage discharge volume, maximum forest and gross area, and maxi-
mum food yield, representing the extent of economic development,

Table 1
Scenario values of the economy growth rate of Chongming Island.
Table 3
Year 2010 2015 2020 Environment and agriculture scenarios of Chongming Island.
Scenarios A1 A2 A1 A2 A1 A2
Year 2010 2015 2020
Primary industry (%) 6.31 5.40 5.10 4.60 4.38 4.16
Scenarios C1 C2 C1 C2 C1 C2
Secondary industry (%) 21.00 18.25 17.12 15.67 14.68 13.56
Service industry (%) 14.25 12.30 11.61 10.56 9.96 9.54 Forest and grass area (104 ha) 2.49 2.78 3.03 3.56 3.72 4.57
Total growth (%) 16.16 14.03 13.17 12.04 10.30 9.80 Irrigation area (104 ha) 4.93 4.48 5.27 4.42 5.64 4.33
132 X. Ni et al. / Science of the Total Environment 439 (2012) 129135

8
environment and ecology condition, and impact on social stabilization. >
>
> " !p # 1
Each detailed formulation was shown as follows. >
> Xn
f 
x f x p
>
> p
i i  i
> Minimize : dp
<
x
i1
f i xf i
8 p 5
>
> Max f 1 x1 ; x2 ; x3 ; x4 ; x5 > 1bpb; i > 0
>
>
< >
>X p
> n
Min f 2 x2 ; x4 ; x5 >
1 >
: i 1
> Max f 3 x6 ; x7
>
: i1
Max f 4 x4 ; x8 ; x9

where i is the weight for criterion i; f i x is the desired value of cri-

where x1, x2, and x3 refer to the GDP of the primary industry, second-
terion i; f i x is the worst value; n is a parameter which represents
ary industry, and service industry, respectively; x4 is the population; the total number of objectives; p is the parameter dening the metric
x5 is the urbanization level; x6 and x7 refer to the forest and grass of dp.
area; x8 and x9 refer to the irrigation area and food yield per hectare; The parameter p stands for the distances from the ideal point. For
Max means to maximize the value; Min means to minimize the value. p = 1, this problem becomes a linear program; while for p = 2, a sim-
Four constraints were set for the MWRCC objective functions for ple squared distance is calculated; if p = , the largest deviation is
Chongming Island. They were water resources balance between water considered. Different decision makers have various weights for each
supply and water demand, socialeconomic development speed and its criterion. To satisfy decision makers, linguistic weights for criteria
structure balance, ecology protection and food yield, and non-negativity were dened. The set of weights and their numeric equivalents are
which were expressed by the following equations. shown as Eq. 6, which is based on the analytic hierarchy process
a. The water resources balance between the water supply and water (AHP) method (Bottero et al., 2011).
demand constraint is written as:
fvery low; low; medium; high; and very highg f1; 3; 5; 7; 9g 6
8  
< WD W ;W  ;W ;W
 ; x ; x ; x ; x W
R U W A 1 2 3 4 S
2
: WG SI ; W G WA 3.4. Multi-level WRCC fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
WD WE WT

Based on the establishment of the water resources carrying capacity

where WD is the whole water demand of the national economy,
evaluation index system, a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
which can be calculated as the sum of the industrial, agricultural,
model for MWRCC was applied to select the preferable plan (Yin et al.,
and domestic water demands; WS is the maximum water re-
1999; Chen et al., 2006). The multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evalua-
sources available; WG is the irrigation water use volume; WA is
tion model includes three basic concepts that indicate a fuzzy judgment
the whole agricultural water use volume; WE is the ecology
matrix R, a weight set A, and a fuzzy evaluation vector B. Variables can
water demand; WT is the annual water resources volume; SI is
 is the domestic water use quota in a be grouped at different levels. The next step is to multiply A by R to cal-
the irrigation area; W R
 is the domestic water use quota in a town; W  culate the fuzzy evaluation vector B = (b1, b2, , bm) for variables at a
rural district; W U A
 given level. As a comprehensive result for a given level, the vector
is the agricultural water use quota; W W is the water use quota
 is the irrigation water use quota. B can be used to construct a fuzzy judgment matrix R for variables at
of unit GDP; and W G
higher-levels. By repeating these steps, the comprehensive results for
b. The socialeconomic development speed and its structure balance
all levels will be obtained. Finally, the largest membership value from
constraint are written as:
B Maxbi j1im is chosen as the nal comprehensive evaluation
8 result.
>
> r xi vi
< i
x4 u
3 4. Results and discussion
> i xi i
>
:
x5
4.1. Water supply and demand
where ri (i = 1, 2, 3) is the economic development speed of the dif-
Water is the most important resource for local people and nature
ferent industries; i (i = 1, 2, 3) is the proportion to the GDP of the
on Chongming Island (Yuan et al., 2003). The rapid socioeconomic
different industries; is the population growth rate; and vi, u, i,
and urban development of Chongming Island will lead to a rapid
and are the corresponding scenario values of the population
growth in water demand. In 2005, the available water on Chongming
and economic development scenario analysis.
Island was 5.31 10 8 m 3. The actual water use volume during the
c. The ecology and environment protection and food yield constraints
same year was 5.16 10 8 m 3 (Table 4). The water supply volume
are written as:
will remain slightly greater than the water demand volume in the
8 different planning years for each scenario. A serious situation was
< x6 Sl
x S identied where the growth rate of water demand is much higher
4
: 7 c than that of the water supply. The water supply growth volume is
x9 Yield
2.22108 m3 from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while
the corresponding water demand growth volume is 2.74108 m3 and
where S1 is the planned forest area; Sc is the planed gross area; and
2.64108 m3, respectively. The water demand quantity almost reaches
Yield is the food yield standard per capita.
the water supply quantity in 2020 under Scenario III and Scenario IV, in-
Fifteen solution techniques in terms of 24 criteria were evaluated, dicating that water crisis caused by water shortages would likely follow.
forming an evaluation matrix of criteria versus alternative multi- For this reason, a low development mode should be avoided.
objective decision making (MCDM) techniques (Tecle, 1992). The
compromise programming, based on scaling the outcome for each 4.2. Water use benet and water demand structure
criterion and subsequently calculating a weighted sum of the metric
distance for each criterion to make a single objective function, was Water use benet in planning year was given in Fig. 2. In 2005, the
ranked to solve various multi-objective water resources problems. water resources use benet was 17.1 CNY/m 3. There is a rapid growth
 X. Ni et al. / Science of the Total Environment 439 (2012) 129135 133

Table 4 Table 5
Water supply and demand in planning year in Chongming Island. Water demand structure in planning year in Chongming Island.

Year Scenario Water supply (108 m3) Water demand (108 m3) Year Scenario Water demand structure

2005 5.31 5.16 Agriculture (%) Industry (%) Service industry (%)
2010 Scenario I 9.58 7.35
2010 Scenario I 87.6 3.0 9.4
Scenario II 9.58 7.22
Scenario II 84.3 4.1 11.6
Scenario III 6.99 6.12
Scenario III 83.6 4.5 11.9
Scenario IV 6.99 5.94
Scenario IV 83.1 4.6 12.3
2015 Scenario I 10.55 8.65
2015 Scenario I 82.7 4.7 12.6
Scenario II 10.55 8.40
Scenario II 81.1 5.3 13.6
Scenario III 7.39 6.81
Scenario III 80.2 5.6 14.2
Scenario IV 7.39 6.73
Scenario IV 79.3 5.8 14.9
2020 Scenario I 11.80 10.09
2020 Scenario I 79.0 5.9 15.1
Scenario II 11.80 9.86
Scenario II 78.4 6.4 15.2
Scenario III 7.89 7.62
Scenario III 77.5 7.0 15.5
Scenario IV 7.89 7.47
Scenario IV 76.4 7.5 16.1

in water use benet under both high and low development modes. The
water use benet will be about 50 CNY/m 3 under Scenarios I and II in
2020. It must be pointed out that a high development mode could not
bring the highest water use benet. By 2020, the maximum value will
be 63.8 CNY/m 3, which will be observed under Scenario IV and will be
three times greater than in 2005.
Scenarios III and IV realized higher water use benets than Scenarios I
and II due to the lower agricultural water use (Table 5). Agriculture con-
sumed most of the water on Chongming Island. More than 75% of the
water was used for agricultural use. Although it displays a descending
trend, water use will increase up to 76.479.0% by 2020 because of in-
creasing water use in the livestock and sheries industries. Population ex-
pansion, as well as the improvement of living standards on Chongming
Island, accounted for the increased living water use. Additionally,
tourism's development will also increase the water use. These factors all
result in increasing the proportion of service industry's water demand. If
agricultural water use is reduced continually, it will be easy to enhance
water use benets in the future. This suggestion could be easily accepted
since agriculture is not important in this area. For this reason, the distribu-
tion of water resources needs adjusting as soon as possible for the sustain-
able use of water resources sustainable utilization.
4.3. Sewage discharge
In 2005, the sewage drainage volume was 0.027 billion tons. By
2020, the value will be 0.168, 0.174, 0.134 and 0.135 billion tons
under these four scenarios, which is nearly 56 times more than that
of 2005 (Fig. 3). The sewage drainage will reach at a large volume no
matter what the economy development speeds and water resources
exploitation levels are. With high economy development speeds and
water resources exploitation levels, the sewage drainage volume will
become larger. At present, there is no sewage plant on the island, so
most domestic sewage is discharged directly to the natural ecosystem.
For sustainable development, the establishment of a sewage plant is
in urgent need. Moreover, wastewater reuse should be encouraged to
release the high pressure of the water supply caused by the rapid socio-
economic development and urbanization.
4.4. Green land area
The forest and grass coverage rate in 2005 (16.8%) was very low
(Fig. 4), which was not suitable for water resource protection. The result
showed that the forest and grass coverage rate will approach or exceed
the China national ecology park standard (40%) by 2020 under all of the
scenarios. The ecology and environmental protection level will have a
bigger impact on the forest and grass coverage than the economy devel-
opment speed and water resources exploitation level (Fig. 4). High
economy development speed and water resources exploitation level
will cause a relatively low forest and grass coverage rate. For this reason,
the forest and grass coverage will not be a main problem for the sustain-
able development in the near future.
4.5. Multi-objective WRCC fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
Based on the establishment of the water resources carrying capacity
evaluation index system, a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

Fig. 2. Water use benet in different planning years for Chongming Island. Fig. 3. Sewage discharge from Chongming Island during the planning years evaluated.
134 X. Ni et al. / Science of the Total Environment 439 (2012) 129135
Fig. 4. Forest and grass coverage rate on Chongming Island during each planning year.
model for MWRCC was applied to select a preferable plan (Yin et al.,
1999; Chen et al., 2006). The result showed that the MWRCC fuzzy com-
prehensive evaluation indices were 0.49, 0.52, 0.47 and 0.48, respec-
tively, under the four different scenarios (Fig. 5). The greater the
value, the better the scenario. Overall, Scenario II is nally deemed to
be the most desirable plan. It suggests that the policy of economic de-
velopment with rapid growth and better environmental protection
may achieve the best sustainable development for Chongming Island
in the future.
5. Conclusions
This study implies that the situation between water demand and sup-
ply will become very serious by 2020 under unsuitable development
modes. Scenario II, which considered high economic development and
better environmental protection, was nally recommended. The capacity
of the water supply will be sufcient for economic development and do-
mestic water use in planning year. But the growth speed of water de-
mand is rapid to possibly result in water use deciency and water
quality deterioration. Therefore, the production structure needs to be ad-
justed as soon as possible for sustainable utilization of water resources.
One feasible solution is to reduce the agricultural water use. Water use
benet can reach a favorable level by 2020 under the optimal scenario.
The service industry should be treated as the most hopeful industry in
Chongming Island. Sewage drainage (but not the forest and grass cover-
age rate) will be a big obstacle to future development and environmental
quality. It is very important to construct sewage treatment facilities as
soon as possible. These results can provide an important reference for
policy makers and water resource managers in other regions.
Fig. 5. MWRCC fuzzy comprehensive evaluation indexes of the different scenarios.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the nancial support of the Key
Programs of Science and Technology Commission Foundation of Shanghai
Province (No. 05DZ12007-1) and the Opening Research Fund of Key
Laboratory of Urbanization and Ecological Restoration in Shanghai. The
authors are very grateful to the anonymous reviewers for reading the
manuscript and providing suggestions.
References
Anaman KA. Determinants of economic growth in Brunei Darussalam. J Asian Econ
2004;15(4):77796.
Baker JP, Hulse DW, Gregory SV, Baker JP. Alternative futures for the Willamette River
Basin, Oregon. Ecol Appl 2002;14(2):31324.
Bao C, Fang CL. Water resources constraint force on urbanization in water decient
regions: a case study of the Hexi Corridor, arid area of NW China. Ecol Econ
2007;62(3):50817.
Botkin DB, Keller EA. Environmental science. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 1995.
Bottero M, Comino E, Riggio V. Application of the analytic hierarchy process and the
analytic network process for the assessment of different wastewater treatment
systems. Environ Modell Softw 2011;26(10):121124.
Bulkley JW. Integrated watershed management: past, present, and future. Water
Resour Manage 1995;100:7-18.
Carpenter SR, Bennett EM, Peterson GD. Scenarios for ecosystem services: an overview.
Ecol Soc 2006;11(1):29.
Chang NB, Wen CG, Wu SL. Optimal management of environmental and land resources
in a reservoir watershed by multiobjective programming. J Environ Manage
1995;44(2):14561.
Chen CH, Wu RS, Liaw SL, Sue WR, Chiou IJ. A study of waterland environment carry-
ing capacity for a river basin. Water Sci Technol 2000;42(34):38996.
Chen Y, Marc KD, Hipel KW. Multiple criteria classication with application in water re-
sources planning. Comput Oper Res 2006;33:330123.
Chongming Environmental Protection Bureau. Environment bulletin of Chongming (in
Chinese); 2007. Chongming Island County.
Chongming Island County Government. Report on national economy plan of
Chongming in the eleventh ve-year plan (in Chinese); 2005. Chongming Island
County.
Chongming Statistics Bureau. Statistic yearbook of Chongming (19952005) (in Chinese);
2006. Chongming Island County.
Chongming Water Resource Bureau. Report on Water Resources Extensive Survey of
Chongming (in Chinese); 2006. Chongming Island County.
Chongming Water Resource Bureau. Hydrology yearbook of Chongming (in Chinese);
2007. Chongming Island County.
Cuadra M, Bjorklund J. Assessment of economic and ecological carrying capacity of
agricultural crops in Nicaragua. Ecol Indic 2006;7(1):13349.
Faye RM, Sawadogoa S, Mora-Camino F. Flexible management of water resource
systems. Appl Math Comput 2005;167(1):51627.
Giupponi C, Mysiak J, Fassio A, Cogan V. MULINO-DSS: a computer tool for sustainable
use of water resources at the catchment scale. Math Comput Simul 2004;64(1):
1324.
Han Y, Xu SG, Xu XZ. Modeling multisource multiuse water resources allocation. Water
Resour Manage 2008;22(7):91123.
Harris JM, Kennedy S. Analysis carrying capacity in agriculture: global and regional
issues. Ecol Econ 1999;29:44361.
Jolanta D, Zaneta S. Integrated water resource management model for process industry
in Lithuania. J Cleaner Prod 2007;15:9507.
Kechagias E, Katsifarakis KL. Planning water resources management in small islands:
the case of Kalymnos, Greece. Water Air Soil Pollut 2004;4(4):27988.
Kelly B, Aris G. Optimization and assessment of agricultural water-sharing scenarios under
multiple socioeconomic objectives. J Water Resour Plann Manage 2007;133(3):
26474.
Kelly R, Sirr L, Ratcliffe J. Futures thinking to achieve sustainable development at local
level in Ireland. Foresight 2004;6(2):8090.
Kentel K, Aral MM. Fuzzy multiobjective decision-making approach for groundwater
resources management. J Hydrol Eng 2007;12(2):20617.
Koch H, Kaltofen M, Grnewald U, Messner F, Karkuschke M, Zwirner O, et al. Scenarios
of water resources management in the Lower Lusatian mining district, Germany.
Ecol Eng 2005;24(1):4957.
Loucks DP. Sustainable water resources management. Water Int 2000;25(1):3-10.
Matondo JI. A comparison between conventional and integrated water resources plan-
ning and management. Phys Chem Earth 2002;27:8318.
Peter ND, Lorne AG. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment improving
explorations of the future. Environ Impact Assess Rev 2007;27(3):20619.
Shanghai Statistics Bureau. Statistic yearbook of Shanghai (2005) (in Chinese); 2005.
Shanghai.
Shanghai Water Resource Bureau. Water resources bulletin of Shanghai (in Chinese);
2005. Shanghai.
Shanghai Water resource Bureau. Water Resources Extensive Survey of Shanghai (in
Chinese); 2006. Shanghai.
Slocomble DS. Lessons from experience with ecosystem-based management. Landscape
Urban Plan 1998;40(3):319.
 X. Ni et al. / Science of the Total Environment 439 (2012) 129135 135

Tecle A. Selecting a multicriterion decision making technique for watershed resources
management. J Am Water Resour Assoc 1992;28(1):12940.
Thomas CW. Learning from imagining the years ahead. Strategy Leadersh 1994;22(3):
6-10.
Wang LJ, Meng W, Guo HC, Zhang ZX, Liu Y, Fan YY. An interval fuzzy multiobjective
watershed management model for the Lake Qionghai watershed, China. Water
Resour Manage 2006;20(5):70121.
Yin YY, Huang GH, Hipel KW. Fuzzy relation analysis for multicriteria water resources
management. J Water Resour Plann Manage 1999;125(1):417.
Yuan W, James P, Hodgson K, Hutchinson SM, Shi C. Development of sustainability in-
dicators by communities in China: a case study of Chongming County, Shanghai.
J Environ Manage 2003;68(3):25361.