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This is about Marine Insurance, so there will be none of this .
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AGENDA
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IUMI Facts & Figures Committee
o Created in 2002.
o Provides IUMI with
updated shipping and marine insurance key data and statistics;
and an overview of trends in these industries.
o Provide marine insurers with risk data to improve the decision making
processes in risk pricing and risk transfer.
o Industry reports are presented twice a year:
In September (at the annual IUMI Conference) and in March.
o As well as Casualty and Exposure statistics produce:
Global Marine Insurance Report
Global Shipping Market Trends
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Ship Repair Cost Index
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Report on World
Merchant Fleet and World
Trade
(abridged)
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Macroeconomic environment
Emerging economies
Recessionary forces generally faring
in Europe have better than
intensified developed
Economic recovery in
US continues
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Macroeconomic environment
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6
Macroeconomic environment
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Macroeconomic environment
0% China
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 India
-2%
-4%
Inflation likely to remain well contained (despite recent food price rises).
Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
14
7
Macroeconomic environment
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Macroeconomic environment
350
Export volume Trend (1990-2007)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
GDP is to slow further which will keep the level of world exports well below pre-
crisis trend
Source: WTO Secretariat
9/17/2012 16
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Shipping market
Fleet Capacity
Tanker Fleet Bulkcarrier Fleet Containership/MPPs Fleets Deliveries Scrapping
36'000 2'250
32'000 2'000
28'000 1'750
24'000 1'500
No. of Vessels
20'000 1'250
DWT
16'000 1'000
12'000 750
8'000 500
4'000 250
0 0
2012*
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*2012 data is year-to-date.
Source: Clarkson Research, August 2012
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Shipping Market
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Average Age
20
18
16
14
12
10
Jan 00
Jul 00
Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
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9
Shipping Market
Freight Rates
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012
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Shipping Market
Freight rates are still suffering and are slightly below historical average rate due to
the higher cost basis for shipowners
Vessels' demolition rate is still high compared to 2011 for both tankers and bulk
carriers
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Outlook for the marine insurance industry
risk of inflation
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Conclusion
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2012 Global Marine
Insurance Report
(abridged)
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12
Marine Premium 2011 by line of business
2011
Total: 31.9 USD billion
14.2%
26.2%
5.7%
Global Hull
Transport/Cargo
Marine Liability
Offshore/Energy
54.0%
Asia/Pacific
32.9%
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Cargo Premium 2011 by markets
Total: 17.2 USD billion Belgium Brasil China
2011 2.1% 4.2%
9.0%
Other markets France
33.1% 5.0%
Germany
7.0%
Italy
2.9%
USA
4.5% Japan
UK (Lloyds) ** 11.4%
Mexico
6.8% UK (IUA) Spain Russia Nordic Netherlands 2.0%
** includes proportional 1.6% 2.9% 2.2% 3.0%
and facultative reinsurance 2.3%
140% 2011:
Data from: Starts high at 72%,
Belgium, France, Germany, NL, Italy, Spain (no update 2011), UK, USA may end at 74%.
120%
(2010 Japan tsunami affected mainly Japanese market) No technical profit.
100%
..and 2012?
80%
Since 2007:
60% Deterioration of
results .
40% 2002 to 2006:
Gross loss ratios
stayed below 60% -
20% technical profit.
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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Cargo Gross reported Loss Ratios
Underwriting years 200411, as reported after 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years
80% 2011:
Starts high at new
2011 maximum of 72%.
Recent loss ratio level
2004
70% 2010:
2005 follows 2007/2008
pattern; passed 70%
2006
60% 2007/2008:
2007 improved, but still at
Previous loss ratio level high levels > 70%
2008
50% Since 2007:
2009 Market changes
demand adjustment
2010
of claims reserves
2011 => Change in typical
40%
pattern
1 2 3 4 5
Summing up Cargo
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Hull Premium 2011 by region
Europe
Asia/Pacific 54.1%
33.2%
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Change in insured values on renewed vessels
by year of renewal
(= insured value on renewal / insured value previous year)
Average annual change in insured values
on renewed vessels
15.0%
Decrease in insured
10.0%
7.0%
8.3% values continues
5.4% 5.4%
5.0%
2.4%
0.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-5.0% -3.2%
-7.3%
-10.0% -9.2%
-15.0%
-14.5%
-20.0%
Source: Cefor - Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics as of 30 June 2012
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
uw year 2011).
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Hull Gross* Reported Loss Ratio
Underwriting years 2003-2011, as reported after 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years
90%
2011:
Recent loss ratio level
2003 starts at normal level.
80%
2004 2009-2010:
Price-driving factors
2005
70% return to normal
Previous loss ratio level 2006 levels, but no stable
environment.
2007 2010 strong increase.
60%
2008 2006-2008:
2009 Repair cost driven up
50% by changing frame
2011 2010 conditions => Change
in claims pattern
40% 2011
1 2 3 4 5
110%
80% 2006
1st half 2012:
2007
70% Increase in no. of
2008 losses xs 30 MUSD.
Impact on
60% 2009 underwriting years
2011 and 1012.
50% 2010
2011
40%
1 2 3 4 5
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Summing up Hull (1)
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Major losses 2012
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Average insured value
Claim cost in % of total total insured value
Watch your Exposure
Claim per Sum Insured
one Costa Concordia can
& Average
double the Sum
cost relative Insured
to the total insured value
40,000,000 0.450%
35,000,000 0.400%
30,000,000 0.350%
0.300%
25,000,000
0.250%
20,000,000
0.200%
15,000,000
0.150%
10,000,000 0.100%
5,000,000 0.050%
0 0.000%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Average Sum Insured excluding total losses including total losses
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Source: Cefor Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics as of 30 June 2012; Figures reflect 100% of all vessels, not the share written in a specific market
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Offshore Energy Premium 2011 by markets
Japan
Other
Total: 4.5 USD billion
2011
2.8% Actual increase 2010 to 2011: 11%
Nordic (new) Italy 10.0%
3.0% India 2.1%
2.9%
UK (IUA)
3.5%
Malaysia
4.0%
UK (Lloyds)
Nigeria 58.1% *
4.2%
USA Brasil * includes proportional and
facultative reinsurance
4.6% 4.8%
No data: Kazakhstan.
150%
2008 paid 7th year
Ike paid 6th year
paid 5th year
100%
paid 4th year
paid 3rd year
50% paid 2nd year
paid 1st year
0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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Summing up Offshore Energy
Volatile business, strong hurricane impact less in recent years.
Long time lag between accident and claims payment
(due to technical complexity of the insured objects)
Recent development:
Reduced hurricane impact (2012 Hurricane Isaac:
first Gulf of Mexico hurricane in four years, little impact on results)
Increasing frequency of large single loss events
(physical loss and liability)
Events with high liability cost in 2009 and 2010
2011: two losses xs 300 MUSD (Gryphon Alpha, Banff)
2012: one loss xs 300 MUSD (KS Endeavour)
Thank you
Further details at
www.iumi.com
and
http://www.iumi.com/index.php/committees/fa
cts-a-figures-committee/statistics
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Questions?
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