Sales Trend M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8

6632 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6534 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
6675 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
6692 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
6984 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
7133 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
6385 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
7364 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
7171 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8690 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10299 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11997 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6979 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6962 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
7606 15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
7909 16 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
8504 17 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
7977 18 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
7816 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
6520 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
8525 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9510 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12079 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13746 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8225 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8164 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9324 27 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
8820 28 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
9313 29 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
9419 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
8700 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
6960 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
9091 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10933 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13117 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15337 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11267 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8889 38 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9612 39 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
10511 40 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
10571 41 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
10644 42 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
9766 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
7672 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
11016 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11802 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14923 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17460 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10053 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10807 50 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
10713 51 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
10731 52 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
11344 53 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
11510 54 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
10725 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
8395 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
11983 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14028 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17202 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18821 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11098 61 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11089 62 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
11730 63 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
11534 64 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
12323 65 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
12067 66 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
10893 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
9137 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
12805 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14612 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18844 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22207 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10272 73 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10602 74 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
11156 75 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
11602 76 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
10791 77 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
11970 78 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
12269 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
9686 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
13442 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14774 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18460 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
21951 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12287 85 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11519 86 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
12767 87 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
13235 88 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
13643 89 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
13552 90 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
13349 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
10240 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
14781 93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17123 94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20396 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23609 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14031 97 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13109 98 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
14248 99 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
14468 100 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
14250 101 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
15024 102 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
13837 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
10522 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
M9 M10 M11 M12
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
Sales Trend M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8
6632 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6534 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
6675 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
6692 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
6984 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
7133 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
6385 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
7364 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
7171 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8690 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10299 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11997 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6979 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6962 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
7606 15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
7909 16 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
8504 17 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
7977 18 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
7816 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
6520 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
8525 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9510 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12079 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13746 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8225 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8164 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9324 27 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
8820 28 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
9313 29 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
9419 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
8700 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
6960 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
9091 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10933 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13117 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15337 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11267 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8889 38 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9612 39 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
10511 40 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
10571 41 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
10644 42 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
9766 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
7672 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
11016 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11802 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14923 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17460 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10053 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10807 50 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
10713 51 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
10731 52 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
11344 53 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
11510 54 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
10725 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
8395 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
11983 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14028 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17202 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18821 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11098 61 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11089 62 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
11730 63 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
11534 64 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
12323 65 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
12067 66 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
10893 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
9137 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
12805 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14612 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18844 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22207 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10272 73 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10602 74 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
11156 75 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
11602 76 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
10791 77 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
11970 78 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
12269 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
9686 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
13442 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14774 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18460 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
21951 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12287 85 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11519 86 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
12767 87 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
13235 88 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
13643 89 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
13552 90 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
13349 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
10240 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
14781 93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17123 94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20396 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23609 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14031 97 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13109 98 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
14248 99 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
14468 100 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
14250 101 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
15024 102 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
13837 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
10522 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
M9 M10 M11 Time^2 Log(Sales)
0 0 0 1 8.799662
0 0 0 4 8.784775
0 0 0 9 8.806124 25000
0 0 0 16 8.808668
0 0 0 25 8.851377
0 0 0 36 8.872487 20000
0 0 0 49 8.761707
0 0 0 64 8.904359
15000
1 0 0 81 8.8778
0 1 0 100 9.069928
0 0 1 121 9.239802 10000
0 0 0 144 9.392412
0 0 0 169 8.850661
0 0 0 196 8.848222 5000
0 0 0 225 8.936693
0 0 0 256 8.975757 0
0 0 0 289 9.048292
0 20 40
0 0 0 324 8.984318
0 0 0 361 8.963928
0 0 0 400 8.78263
1 0 0 441 9.050758
0 1 0 484 9.160099
10.5
0 0 1 529 9.399224
0 0 0 576 9.528503
0 0 0 625 9.014934 10
0 0 0 676 9.00749
0 0 0 729 9.140347
0 0 0 784 9.084777 9.5
0 0 0 841 9.139167
0 0 0 900 9.150484
9
0 0 0 961 9.071078
0 0 0 1024 8.847935
1 0 0 1089 9.11504 8.5
0 1 0 1156 9.299541
0 0 1 1225 9.481664
0 0 0 1296 9.638023 8
0 0 0 1369 9.329633 0 20 40
0 0 0 1444 9.09257
0 0 0 1521 9.170768
0 0 0 1600 9.260178
0 0 0 1681 9.26587
0 0 0 1764 9.272752
0 0 0 1849 9.186662
0 0 0 1936 8.945333
1 0 0 2025 9.307104
0 1 0 2116 9.376024
0 0 1 2209 9.610659
0 0 0 2304 9.767668
0 0 0 2401 9.215626
0 0 0 2500 9.287949
0 0 0 2601 9.279213
0 0 0 2704 9.280892
0 0 0 2809 9.336444
0 0 0 2916 9.350972
0 0 0 3025 9.280333
0 0 0 3136 9.035392
1 0 0 3249 9.391244
0 1 0 3364 9.548811
0 0 1 3481 9.752781
0 0 0 3600 9.842729
0 0 0 3721 9.31452
0 0 0 3844 9.313709
0 0 0 3969 9.369905
0 0 0 4096 9.353054
0 0 0 4225 9.419223
0 0 0 4356 9.39823
0 0 0 4489 9.295876
0 0 0 4624 9.120087
1 0 0 4761 9.457591
0 1 0 4900 9.589598
0 0 1 5041 9.84395
0 0 0 5184 10.00816
0 0 0 5329 9.237177
0 0 0 5476 9.268798
0 0 0 5625 9.319733
0 0 0 5776 9.358933
0 0 0 5929 9.286468
0 0 0 6084 9.390159
0 0 0 6241 9.414831
0 0 0 6400 9.178437
1 0 0 6561 9.506139
0 1 0 6724 9.600624
0 0 1 6889 9.823362
0 0 0 7056 9.996568
0 0 0 7225 9.416297
0 0 0 7396 9.351753
0 0 0 7569 9.454619
0 0 0 7744 9.49062
0 0 0 7921 9.520982
0 0 0 8100 9.514289
0 0 0 8281 9.499197
0 0 0 8464 9.234057
1 0 0 8649 9.601098
0 1 0 8836 9.748178
0 0 1 9025 9.923094
0 0 0 9216 10.06938
0 0 0 9409 9.549024
0 0 0 9604 9.481054
0 0 0 9801 9.564372
0 0 0 10000 9.579695
0 0 0 10201 9.564512
0 0 0 10404 9.617404
0 0 0 10609 9.535101
0 0 0 10816 9.261224
 Sales

Sale
s

40 60 80 100 120

Log(Sales)

Log(Sales
)

40 60 80 100 120
 Linear Regression

Regression Statistics
R 0.9775
R Square 0.9555
Adjusted R Square 0.94963
Standard Error 0.06696
Total Number Of Cases 104
Log(Sales) = 9.3915 + 0.0072 * Trend - 0.5525 * M1 - 0.5920 * M2 - 0.5320 * M3 - 0.5224 * M4 - 0.5030 * M5 - 0.4

ANOVA
d.f. SS MS F p-level
Regression 12 8.76059 0.73005 ### 0E+00
Residual 91 0.40803 0.00448
Total 103 9.16862

Coefficients Standard Error LCL UCL t Stat

Intercept 9.3915 0.02647 9.33893 9.44408 ###
Trend 0.0072 0.00022 0.00677 0.00764 32.85621
M1 -0.55247 0.03256 -0.61714 -0.4878 -16.96989
M2 -0.59203 0.03255 -0.65669 -0.52738 -18.18872
M3 -0.53196 0.03254 -0.59661 -0.46732 -16.3458
M4 -0.52241 0.03254 -0.58704 -0.45777 -16.05408
M5 -0.50297 0.03254 -0.5676 -0.43834 -15.45779
M6 -0.49698 0.03254 -0.56161 -0.43234 -15.27395
M7 -0.56444 0.03254 -0.62908 -0.49981 -17.34707
M8 -0.76045 0.03254 -0.82509 -0.69581 -23.36944
M9 -0.47048 0.03349 -0.537 -0.40396 -14.04943
M10 -0.34193 0.03348 -0.40844 -0.27541 -10.21172
M11 -0.13891 0.03348 -0.20542 -0.0724 -4.14891
T (5%) 1.98638
LCL - Lower value of a reliable interval (LCL)
UCL - Upper value of a reliable interval (UCL)

Residuals
Observation Predicted Y Residual Standard Residuals
1 8.84623 -0.04657 -0.73996
2 8.81388 -0.0291 -0.46239
3 8.88115 -0.07503 -1.19202
4 8.89791 -0.08924 -1.41782
5 8.92455 -0.07317 -1.16251
6 8.93774 -0.06525 -1.03677
7 8.87748 -0.11577 -1.83937
8 8.68867 0.21569 3.42688
9 8.98585 -0.10805 -1.71667
10 9.1216 -0.05167 -0.82099
11 9.33182 -0.09202 -1.46195
12 9.47793 -0.08552 -1.35875
13 8.93266 -0.082 -1.30286
14 8.90031 -0.05208 -0.82752
15 8.96758 -0.03089 -0.49072
16 8.98433 -0.00858 -0.13628
17 9.01097 0.03732 0.59291
18 9.02417 -0.03985 -0.63318
19 8.96391 0.00002 0.00036
20 8.7751 0.00753 0.11965
21 9.07228 -0.02152 -0.34188
22 9.20803 -0.04793 -0.76152
23 9.41825 -0.01902 -0.30223
24 9.56436 -0.03586 -0.5697
25 9.01909 -0.00416 -0.06606
26 8.98673 0.02076 0.32976
27 9.05401 0.08634 1.37178
28 9.07076 0.01401 0.22266
29 9.0974 0.04176 0.66355
30 9.1106 0.03989 0.63371
31 9.05033 0.02074 0.32959
32 8.86153 -0.01359 -0.21595
33 9.1587 -0.04366 -0.69374
34 9.29446 0.00508 0.08076
35 9.50467 -0.02301 -0.36559
36 9.65079 -0.01277 -0.20281
37 9.10552 0.22411 3.56074
38 9.07316 0.01941 0.30834
39 9.14044 0.03033 0.48192
40 9.15719 0.10299 1.63626
41 9.18383 0.08204 1.30344
42 9.19703 0.07573 1.20313
43 9.13676 0.0499 0.79282
44 8.94796 -0.00262 -0.04167
45 9.24513 0.06197 0.98461
46 9.38089 -0.00486 -0.07725
47 9.5911 0.01956 0.31071
48 9.73722 0.03045 0.48381
49 9.19195 0.02368 0.3762
50 9.15959 0.12836 2.03937
51 9.22686 0.05235 0.83173
52 9.24362 0.03727 0.59219
53 9.27026 0.06618 1.05155
54 9.28345 0.06752 1.07271
55 9.22319 0.05714 0.90788
56 9.03438 0.00101 0.01602
57 9.33156 0.05968 0.94825
58 9.46731 0.0815 1.29482
59 9.67753 0.07525 1.19558
60 9.82365 0.01908 0.3032
61 9.27838 0.03614 0.57425
62 9.24602 0.06769 1.07546
63 9.31329 0.05661 0.89947
64 9.33005 0.02301 0.36554
65 9.35669 0.06254 0.99356
66 9.36988 0.02835 0.45037
67 9.30962 -0.01374 -0.21835
68 9.12081 -0.00072 -0.01151
69 9.41799 0.0396 0.62919
70 9.55374 0.03586 0.56967
71 9.76396 0.07999 1.2709
 72 9.91007 0.09809 1.55845
73 9.3648 -0.12763 -2.02776
74 9.33245 -0.06365 -1.01127
75 9.39972 -0.07999 -1.27085
76 9.41648 -0.05754 -0.91425
77 9.44312 -0.15665 -2.48884
78 9.45631 -0.06615 -1.05104
79 9.39605 0.01878 0.29844
80 9.20724 -0.0288 -0.45763
81 9.50442 0.00172 0.02735
82 9.64017 -0.03955 -0.62833
83 9.85039 -0.02703 -0.4294
84 9.9965 0.00007 0.00105
85 9.45123 -0.03494 -0.55507
86 9.41888 -0.06712 -1.06646
87 9.48615 -0.03153 -0.50095
88 9.5029 -0.01228 -0.19517
89 9.52954 -0.00856 -0.13604
90 9.54274 -0.02845 -0.45202
91 9.48248 0.01672 0.26567
92 9.29367 -0.05961 -0.94712
93 9.59085 0.01025 0.16288
94 9.7266 0.02158 0.34284
95 9.93682 -0.01372 -0.21802
96 10.08293 -0.01355 -0.21524
97 9.53766 0.01136 0.18053
98 9.5053 -0.02425 -0.38529
99 9.57258 -0.00821 -0.13037
100 9.58933 -0.00964 -0.15313
101 9.61597 -0.05146 -0.81761
102 9.62917 -0.01176 -0.18691
103 9.5689 -0.0338 -0.53705
104 9.3801 -0.11887 -1.88867

Residuals [Trend]
0.3

0.25

0.2
Residuals

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-0.05

-0.1

-0.15
Trend
-0.2
 -0.1

-0.15
Trend
-0.2
 Linear Regression

M3 - 0.5224 * M4 - 0.5030 * M5 - 0.4970 * M6 - 0.5644 * M7 - 0.7605 * M8 - 0.4705 * M9 - 0.3419 * M10 - 0.1389 * M11

p-level
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
0E+00
###
0.00008
near Regression

M4 - 0.5030 * M5 - 0.4970 * M6 - 0.5644 * M7 - 0.7605 * M8 - 0.4705 * M9 - 0.3419 * M10 - 0.1389 * M11

H0 (5%) rejected?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
 Linear Regression

Regression Statistics
R 0.98313
R Square 0.96655
Adjusted R Square 0.96172
Standard Error 0.05837
Total Number Of Cases 104
Log(Sales) = 9.3136 + 0.0113 * Trend - 0.5441 * M1 - 0.5839 * M2 - 0.5240 * M3 - 0.5145 * M4 - 0.4951 * M5 - 0.4890 *

ANOVA
d.f. SS MS F p-level
Regression 13 8.86197 0.68169 ### 0E+00
Residual 90 0.30665 0.00341
Total 103 9.16862

Coefficients Standard Error LCL UCL t Stat p-level

Intercept 9.31355 0.02714 9.25963 9.36747 ### 0E+00
Trend 0.0113 0.00077 0.00976 0.01284 14.58033 0E+00
M1 -0.54412 0.02842 -0.60058 -0.48766 -19.1452 0E+00
M2 -0.58392 0.02841 -0.64036 -0.52747 -20.55119 0E+00
M3 -0.524 0.02841 -0.58044 -0.46757 -18.44636 0E+00
M4 -0.51453 0.0284 -0.57095 -0.4581 -18.11533 0E+00
M5 -0.49509 0.0284 -0.55151 -0.43867 -17.43215 0E+00
M6 -0.48902 0.0284 -0.54544 -0.43259 -17.21833 0E+00
M7 -0.55633 0.0284 -0.61276 -0.4999 -19.58688 0E+00
M8 -0.7521 0.02841 -0.80854 -0.69567 -26.4757 0E+00
M9 -0.47048 0.02919 -0.52847 -0.41248 -16.11699 0E+00
M10 -0.342 0.02919 -0.39999 -0.28402 -11.71718 0E+00
M11 -0.13899 0.02919 -0.19697 -0.08101 -4.76215 0.00001
Time^2 -0.00004 0.00001 -0.00005 -0.00002 -5.45477 0
T (5%) 1.98667
LCL - Lower value of a reliable interval (LCL)
UCL - Upper value of a reliable interval (UCL)

Residuals
Observation Predicted Y Residual Standard Residuals
1 8.78069 0.01897 0.34772
2 8.75208 0.0327 0.59925
3 8.8231 -0.01697 -0.31103
4 8.8436 -0.03493 -0.64014
5 8.87398 -0.0226 -0.41428
6 8.89092 -0.01844 -0.33788
7 8.8344 -0.0727 -1.33233
8 8.64934 0.25502 4.67373
9 8.9416 -0.0638 -1.16934
10 9.08063 -0.01071 -0.19622
11 9.29413 -0.05433 -0.99566
12 9.44352 -0.05111 -0.93667
13 8.90972 -0.05906 -1.08243
14 8.88017 -0.03195 -0.58559
15 8.95026 -0.01356 -0.24857
16 8.96982 0.00594 0.10879
17 8.99927 0.04902 0.89844
18 9.01527 -0.03096 -0.56735
19 8.95782 0.00611 0.11197
20 8.77182 0.01081 0.19809
21 9.06315 -0.01239 -0.22704
22 9.20124 -0.04114 -0.75401
23 9.4138 -0.01457 -0.26711
24 9.56225 -0.03375 -0.61855
25 9.02752 -0.01259 -0.23066
26 8.99703 0.01045 0.19161
27 9.06618 0.07417 1.35928
28 9.08481 -0.00003 -0.00057
29 9.11332 0.02585 0.47368
30 9.12839 0.02209 0.40494
31 9.07 0.00108 0.01981
32 8.88306 -0.03513 -0.64381
33 9.17345 -0.05841 -1.07053
34 9.31061 -0.01107 -0.20287
35 9.52223 -0.04057 -0.74348
36 9.66975 -0.03173 -0.58146
37 9.13408 0.19555 3.58396
38 9.10266 -0.01009 -0.1849
39 9.17087 -0.0001 -0.00183
40 9.18856 0.07162 1.31256
41 9.21614 0.04973 0.91148
42 9.23027 0.04248 0.77861
43 9.17094 0.01572 0.28815
44 8.98307 -0.03774 -0.69161
45 9.27252 0.03458 0.6338
46 9.40874 -0.03272 -0.59965
47 9.61943 -0.00877 -0.16071
48 9.76601 0.00166 0.03037
49 9.2294 -0.01378 -0.25249
50 9.19705 0.0909 1.666
51 9.26432 0.01489 0.27298
52 9.28107 -0.00018 -0.00334
53 9.30771 0.02873 0.52654
54 9.32091 0.03006 0.55095
55 9.26065 0.01969 0.36082
56 9.07184 -0.03645 -0.66797
57 9.36035 0.03089 0.56612
58 9.49564 0.05317 0.97447
59 9.70539 0.04739 0.86858
60 9.85103 -0.00831 -0.15222
61 9.31349 0.00103 0.01887
62 9.2802 0.03351 0.61418
63 9.34653 0.02337 0.42834
64 9.36235 -0.0093 -0.17041
65 9.38806 0.03117 0.5712
66 9.40032 -0.00209 -0.03822
67 9.33911 -0.04324 -0.79245
68 9.14937 -0.02928 -0.53669
69 9.43695 0.02064 0.37827
70 9.5713 0.0183 0.33536
 71 9.78011 0.06384 1.16997
72 9.92482 0.08334 1.52741
73 9.38634 -0.14916 -2.73377
74 9.35211 -0.08331 -1.52691
75 9.41751 -0.09778 -1.79201
76 9.43239 -0.07346 -1.34634
77 9.45716 -0.17069 -3.12834
78 9.46848 -0.07833 -1.43549
79 9.40635 0.00848 0.15549
80 9.21567 -0.03723 -0.68234
81 9.50231 0.00383 0.07017
82 9.63572 -0.0351 -0.64327
83 9.8436 -0.02024 -0.3709
84 9.98737 0.0092 0.16853
85 9.44796 -0.03166 -0.58022
86 9.41279 -0.06104 -1.11863
87 9.47725 -0.02263 -0.41482
88 9.4912 -0.00058 -0.01062
89 9.51503 0.00595 0.10907
90 9.52542 -0.01113 -0.20394
91 9.46234 0.03685 0.67542
92 9.27073 -0.03667 -0.67207
93 9.55643 0.04466 0.81856
94 9.68891 0.05927 1.08621
95 9.89585 0.02724 0.49931
96 10.03869 0.0307 0.56258
97 9.49833 0.05069 0.92902
98 9.46223 0.01882 0.34498
99 9.52576 0.03861 0.70768
100 9.53877 0.04093 0.75006
101 9.56166 0.00285 0.05222
102 9.57111 0.04629 0.84839
103 9.5071 0.028 0.51313
104 9.31455 -0.05333 -0.97734
 Linear Regression

5145 * M4 - 0.4951 * M5 - 0.4890 * M6 - 0.5563 * M7 - 0.7521 * M8 - 0.4705 * M9 - 0.3420 * M10 - 0.1390 * M11 - 0.0000 * Time^2

H0 (5%) rejected?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
 Standard Residuals
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 0 20 40 60 80

-2
-3
-4
Residual_{t-1} Residual_t
0.01897 0.0327
0.0327 -0.01697
-0.01697 -0.03493
-0.03493 -0.0226
-0.0226 -0.01844
-0.01844 -0.0727
-0.0727 0.25502
0.25502 -0.0638
-0.0638 -0.01071
-0.01071 -0.05433
-0.05433 -0.05111
-0.05111 -0.05906
-0.05906 -0.03195
-0.03195 -0.01356
-0.01356 0.00594
0.00594 0.04902
0.04902 -0.03096
-0.03096 0.00611
0.00611 0.01081
0.01081 -0.01239
-0.01239 -0.04114
-0.04114 -0.01457
-0.01457 -0.03375
-0.03375 -0.01259
-0.01259 0.01045
0.01045 0.07417
0.07417 -0.00003
-0.00003 0.02585
0.02585 0.02209
0.02209 0.00108
0.00108 -0.03513
-0.03513 -0.05841
-0.05841 -0.01107
-0.01107 -0.04057
-0.04057 -0.03173
-0.03173 0.19555
0.19555 -0.01009
-0.01009 -0.0001
-0.0001 0.07162
0.07162 0.04973
0.04973 0.04248
0.04248 0.01572
0.01572 -0.03774
-0.03774 0.03458
0.03458 -0.03272
-0.03272 -0.00877
-0.00877 0.00166
0.00166 -0.01378
-0.01378 0.0909
0.0909 0.01489
0.01489 -0.00018
-0.00018 0.02873
 0.02873 0.03006
0.03006 0.01969
0.01969 -0.03645
-0.03645 0.03089
0.03089 0.05317
0.05317 0.04739
0.04739 -0.00831
-0.00831 0.00103
0.00103 0.03351
0.03351 0.02337
0.02337 -0.0093
-0.0093 0.03117
0.03117 -0.00209
-0.00209 -0.04324
-0.04324 -0.02928
-0.02928 0.02064
0.02064 0.0183
0.0183 0.06384
0.06384 0.08334
0.08334 -0.14916
-0.14916 -0.08331
-0.08331 -0.09778
-0.09778 -0.07346
-0.07346 -0.17069
-0.17069 -0.07833
-0.07833 0.00848
0.00848 -0.03723
-0.03723 0.00383
0.00383 -0.0351
-0.0351 -0.02024
-0.02024 0.0092
0.0092 -0.03166
-0.03166 -0.06104
-0.06104 -0.02263
-0.02263 -0.00058
-0.00058 0.00595
0.00595 -0.01113
-0.01113 0.03685
0.03685 -0.03667
-0.03667 0.04466
0.04466 0.05927
0.05927 0.02724
0.02724 0.0307
0.0307 0.05069
0.05069 0.01882
0.01882 0.03861
0.03861 0.04093
0.04093 0.00285
0.00285 0.04629
0.04629 0.028
0.028 -0.05333
ls

Column D
100 120
 Linear Regression

Regression Statistics
R 0.13318
R Square 0.01774
Adjusted R Square 0.00801
Standard Error 0.05458
Total Number Of Cases 103
Residual_t =- 0.0003 + 0.1337 * Residual_{t-1}

ANOVA
d.f. SS MS F p-level
Regression 1 0.00543 0.00543 1.82368 0.17989
Residual 101 0.30086 0.00298
Total 102 0.30629

Coefficients Standard Error LCL UCL t Stat p-level

Intercept -0.00025 0.00538 -0.01092 0.01042 ### 0.96251
Residual_{t-1} 0.13373 0.09902 -0.06271 0.33016 1.35044 0.17989
T (5%) 1.98373
LCL - Lower value of a reliable interval (LCL)
UCL - Upper value of a reliable interval (UCL)

Residuals
Observation Predicted Y Residual Standard Residuals
1 0.00228 0.03041 0.56001
2 0.00412 -0.02109 -0.38832
3 -0.00252 -0.03241 -0.59668
4 -0.00492 -0.01768 -0.32555
5 -0.00328 -0.01516 -0.27913
6 -0.00272 -0.06998 -1.2885
7 -0.00997 0.26499 4.87924
8 0.03385 -0.09765 -1.79806
9 -0.00879 -0.00192 -0.03537
10 -0.00169 -0.05264 -0.96928
11 -0.00752 -0.04359 -0.80262
12 -0.00709 -0.05197 -0.95698
13 -0.00815 -0.0238 -0.43824
14 -0.00453 -0.00904 -0.1664
15 -0.00207 0.008 0.14736
16 0.00054 0.04848 0.89269
17 0.0063 -0.03726 -0.68604
18 -0.00439 0.0105 0.19338
19 0.00056 0.01024 0.18864
20 0.00119 -0.01358 -0.25005
21 -0.00191 -0.03923 -0.72237
22 -0.00576 -0.00882 -0.16239
23 -0.0022 -0.03155 -0.58089
24 -0.00477 -0.00782 -0.14397
25 -0.00194 0.01239 0.22816
26 0.00114 0.07302 1.34455
27 0.00966 -0.0097 -0.17852
28 -0.00026 0.0261 0.48063
29 0.0032 0.01889 0.34786
30 0.0027 -0.00162 -0.02984
31 -0.00011 -0.03502 -0.64482
32 -0.00495 -0.05346 -0.98437
33 -0.00806 -0.003 -0.05533
34 -0.00173 -0.03883 -0.71503
35 -0.00568 -0.02605 -0.47963
36 -0.0045 0.20005 3.6835
37 0.0259 -0.03599 -0.6626
38 -0.0016 0.0015 0.02767
39 -0.00027 0.07188 1.32361
40 0.00932 0.04041 0.74407
41 0.0064 0.03609 0.66446
42 0.00543 0.01029 0.18956
43 0.00185 -0.03959 -0.72889
44 -0.0053 0.03988 0.73434
45 0.00437 -0.03709 -0.68294
46 -0.00463 -0.00414 -0.07624
47 -0.00143 0.00308 0.05678
48 -0.00003 -0.01375 -0.25309
49 -0.0021 0.093 1.71238
50 0.0119 0.00299 0.05509
51 0.00174 -0.00192 -0.03536
52 -0.00028 0.02901 0.53412
53 0.00359 0.02647 0.48745
54 0.00377 0.01592 0.29315
55 0.00238 -0.03883 -0.7149
56 -0.00513 0.03602 0.66318
57 0.00388 0.04929 0.90763
58 0.00686 0.04054 0.74638
59 0.00608 -0.01439 -0.26496
60 -0.00136 0.00239 0.04407
61 -0.00012 0.03363 0.61918
62 0.00423 0.01914 0.35249
63 0.00287 -0.01217 -0.22408
64 -0.0015 0.03266 0.60143
65 0.00391 -0.006 -0.11048
66 -0.00053 -0.04271 -0.78635
67 -0.00604 -0.02325 -0.42807
68 -0.00417 0.02481 0.45681
69 0.00251 0.01579 0.29077
70 0.00219 0.06164 1.13505
71 0.00828 0.07506 1.38203
72 0.01089 -0.16006 -2.94709
73 -0.0202 -0.06311 -1.16209
74 -0.01139 -0.08638 -1.59058
75 -0.01333 -0.06013 -1.10721
76 -0.01008 -0.16062 -2.95742
77 -0.02308 -0.05525 -1.01724
78 -0.01073 0.01921 0.35374
79 0.00088 -0.03811 -0.70175
80 -0.00523 0.00906 0.16683
81 0.00026 -0.03536 -0.65104
82 -0.00495 -0.01529 -0.28154
 83 -0.00296 0.01216 0.22382
84 0.00098 -0.03264 -0.60091
85 -0.00449 -0.05655 -1.04124
86 -0.00842 -0.01422 -0.26181
87 -0.00328 0.0027 0.04973
88 -0.00033 0.00628 0.11567
89 0.00054 -0.01167 -0.21488
90 -0.00174 0.03859 0.71064
91 0.00467 -0.04135 -0.76128
92 -0.00516 0.04982 0.91734
93 0.00572 0.05355 0.98597
94 0.00767 0.01957 0.36038
95 0.00339 0.02731 0.5028
96 0.00385 0.04684 0.86244
97 0.00653 0.0123 0.22644
98 0.00226 0.03635 0.6693
99 0.00491 0.03602 0.66316
100 0.00522 -0.00237 -0.04364
101 0.00013 0.04616 0.85
102 0.00594 0.02206 0.40622
103 0.00349 -0.05682 -1.04618
H0 (5%) rejected?
No
No
Intercept Regression Coefficients
9.31355 0.0113 -0.54412 -0.58392 -0.524 -0.51453 -0.49509 -0.48902

Trend M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
104 0 0 0 0 0 0
105 0 0 0 0 0 0
106 0 0 0 0 0 0
107 0 0 0 0 0 0
108 0 0 0 0 0 0
109 1 0 0 0 0 0
110 0 1 0 0 0 0
111 0 0 1 0 0 0
112 0 0 0 1 0 0
113 0 0 0 0 1 0
114 0 0 0 0 0 1
115 0 0 0 0 0 0
116 0 0 0 0 0 0
117 0 0 0 0 0 0
118 0 0 0 0 0 0
119 0 0 0 0 0 0
120 0 0 0 0 0 0
121 1 0 0 0 0 0
122 0 1 0 0 0 0
123 0 0 1 0 0 0
124 0 0 0 1 0 0
125 0 0 0 0 1 0
126 0 0 0 0 0 1
127 0 0 0 0 0 0

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
100 105 110
 -0.55633 -0.7521 -0.47048
M7 M8 M9
0 1
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
0 1
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
115
-0.342 -0.13899 -0.00004
M10 M11 M12 Log(Sales)
0 0 0 10816
1 0 0 11025 9.5993212532313
0 1 0 11236 9.7308611014746
0 0 1 11449 9.9368638844750
0 0 0 11664 ###
0 0 0 11881 9.5374753225164
0 0 0 12100 9.5004362249166
0 0 0 12321 9.5630270071017
0 0 0 12544 9.5751006827881
0 0 0 12769 9.5970588727809
0 0 0 12996 9.6055725986374
0 0 0 13225 9.5406261497196
0 0 0 13456 9.3471374651815
1 0 0 13689 9.6309716920052
0 1 0 13924 9.7615751660947
0 0 1 14161 9.9666415749414
0 0 0 14400 ###
0 0 0 14641 9.5653802646753
0 0 0 14884 9.5274047929218
0 0 0 15129 9.5890592009532
0 0 0 15376 9.6001965024859
0 0 0 15625 9.6212183183250
0 0 0 15876 9.6287956700277
0 0 0 16129 9.5629128469562
120 125
 Predicted sales

14754.7634180763
16829.0375920146
20678.7914103506
23831.5210134463
13869.8863941728 0.41800247
13365.555946694
14228.8519132495
14401.6877389235
14721.4202614442
14847.2894453449
13913.6569300155
11465.9547290323
15229.2270379616
17353.9455040361
21303.817797204
24528.8612160081
14262.3754961205
13730.9102489853
14604.1235237485
14767.6831669354
15081.4127117546
15196.1239348297
14227.2276381607

14754.
76341
80763

125 130