Michael P Totten RUPTURES Presentation Colorado Yale Assoc. 287 Slides 01-28-2016

Michael
P To,en
Presenta1on CYA, Jan. 28, 2016
Dedicated to the Inspira0ons
To my two granddaughters Adelaide and Brenna, and Goddaughter Hiliary
Brenna Lavelle
2003 -
Hiliary Green
1991-2013
Adelaide Stout-Greenbaum
2014 -
Humans release CO2 emissions every 10 hours equal to the Mount
Pinatubo volcanic erup0on, Philippines, 1991
BAU = 90,000 erup0ons in 21st Century
$3.3 Trillion per year in 2050 global warming
costs to the world due just to U.S. emissions.
US Geological Survey, Volcanoes, h,ps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php
Externali0es Dened as Private Gain, Public Pain
Lung of LA Teenage
NONsmoker in 1970s; Most Big
Ci0es of the World Today
COST to LIVES JUST IN USA:

62,000 U.S. air pollu0on premature

mortali0es per year today.

$600 Billion per year (2013 dollars) in

2050, equal to 3.6 % of 2014 U.S.
Gross Domes0c Product GDP.
Poli0cal Corporate Media Lies &
Power Greed Disinforma0on
Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies 2011-2015
IMF $5.5 Trillion/yr Assessment May 2015
Law of Accelerating Returns
Information Communication
technologies technologies
Miniaturized COIN
technologies technologies
Information Technologies (of all kinds)
double their power (price performance,
capacity, bandwidth) every year --
Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot
Doubling)(or)Halving)times)
Dynamic RAM Memory Half Pitch Feature Size 5.4 years

Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar) 1.5 years
Average Transistor Price 1.6 years
Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle 1.1 years
Total Bits Shipped 1.1 years
Processor Performance in MIPS 1.8 years
Transistors in Intel Microprocessors 2.0 years
Microprocessor Clock Speed 2.7 years
16
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
Every form of communications technology is
doubling price-performance, bandwidth,
capacity every 12 months
Moores)Law)is)only)one)example Logarithmic+Plot
Exponential)Growth)of)Computing)for)110)Years)
Moore's)Law)was)the)fth,)not)the)rst,)
paradigm)to)bring)exponential)growth)in)computing
Logarithmic+Plot
Year
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw
15
Miniaturization:
another exponential trend
Wireless smart Trillion$ Valuable NANO technology

sensor networks Smartphone engineering & Mfg
Ray Kurzweil
Exponential Finance
July, 2014
http://www.ted.com/talks/
ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us?language=en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnyQWr8hk0A
COllaborative
Proliferation of Intelligence/Innovation
Open Source COINs
Networks (COINs)
Collaborative another exponential
Intelligence/Innovation trend
Networks
Wikipedia, the worlds largest and fastest growing
encyclopedia, premier example of an open source
COIN to date. It is one of the top 5 to 7 daily
visited Internet sites in the world (monthly
readership of ~500 million worldwide).
34 million free usable articles in 288 languages

that have been written by over 50 million
registered users and numerous anonymous
contributors worldwide.
15,000 volumes equivalent to Encyclopedia

Britannica.
100 million hours to create Wikipedia over the

first decade. By comparison, Americans spend
132 million hours each day on Facebook (430
million hours each day worldwide); and
Americans watch 100 million hours of TV ads
every weekend.
There are thousands of open source COINs

currently operating
20th Century 21st Century
Organizations Organizations
Ray Kurzweil, Kurzweilai.net, presentation at Google, 2009

Two Explosive Exponential Trends driving
IP addressable Internet of Everything (IoE)
sors) Visions
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) People Online (billions)
ot 4.5
ch 4
ntially
3.5 People Online
s for a 3 Smartphones
2.5
it.
by new 2
market
1.5
0.5
0
1995 2000 2014 2020
Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen-
Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013
(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,
MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor
Personal Pocket SuperComputer
SuperComputers Networkers
Human & Knowledge Social, Civic & Intelligence

Capital Capital
Catalyzing Collaborative Innovation Networks
beyond zero net

E-Lab Daylighting
MOOCs
APPs Motors
design
HVAC Buildings Chillers
geothermal bio
FITs LEDs Solar thermal decoupling+
incentives geospatial mapping COIN Ad hoc self-
aggregationMobility
Pumps/Compressors
organized groups of
solar gardensWater smart sensor networks
Plugloads integration zero waste bikes self-motivated citizens,
complete streetsLandscaping epeat EVs geographically
BIPV
peer-to-peer
codes Solar PVmicrogrids wind
Albedo surfaces
standards innovation networks LEED ++ dispersed, focused on
collaboration
Windows Architecture accomplishing a
Financing
conservation 10xE visualization specific mission
procurement
millions
APP Use Growing Exponentially
http://www.statista.com/statistics/266488/forecast-of-mobile-app-downloads/
Making Smarter & Integrated Sectors
Grids+Vehicles+Buildings+Industries
The Next Industrial Revolution

SOLAR & WIND
POWER
90% Global Total
Energy Services
Annual global energy consumption by humans
Oil SOLAR PHOTONS

Gas ACCRUED IN A MONTH
EXCEED THE EARTHS
1(
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
Nme(
Coal
use(
ANNUAL Wind
Uranium
Hydro
ANNUAL Solar Energy
Photosynthesis
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National
Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 15%' 7% of existing urban area
on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!
U.S.'Wind'Power'LCOE'PPA'in'2013'2.5/kWh'
more thanGlobal'Wind'Power'LCOE'in'2013'6.5/kWh''
that the turbine scaling and other improvements to turbine efficiency described in Chapter 4 have
overcome these headwinds to help drive PPA prices lower.
6/kWh(
4/kWh(
2/kWh(
Source: Berkeley Lab
Figure 46. Generation-weighted average levelized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region
LCOE=Levelized(Cost(of(Electricity( PPA=Power(Purchase(Agreement(
Figure 46 also shows trends in the generation-weighted average levelized PPA price over time
among four of the five regions broken out in Figure 30 (the Southeast region is omitted from
Ryan(Wiser(&(Mark(Bollinger,(2013(Wind(Technologies(Market(Report,(Lawrence(Berkeley,(August(2014(
Figure 46 owing to its small sample size). Figures 45 and 46 both demonstrate that, based on our
data sample, PPA prices are generally low in the U.S. Interior, high in the West, and in the
middle in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. The large Interior region, where much of U.S.
wind project development occurs, saw average levelized PPA prices of just $22/MWh in 2013.
Entire State of Calif
Community College
System BIG BIM
CLOUD COMUTING
! 71 Million ft2
! 2.75 Million
Students
! 112 California
locations
! 5,000 bldgs
Largest System Public Higher Education in World
5
6
IEA: World needs $48 TRILLION in investment
7
to meet its energy needs to 2035
8
WHY $23 TRILLION for fossil fuels ?? 9
$1.7 Trillion for nuclear
10
But only
$1.7 Trillion for Solar PV 11
Figure 1.6 $3.0 Trillion for Wind
Shares of total global average annual investment in the
12
New Policies Scenario
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

13
Fossil fuels
2014-2020
Power T&D
14
Non-fossil fuel
2021-2025 Eciency 15
2026-2030 16
h,ps://www.iea.org/publica1ons/
freepublica1ons/publica1on/
weo-2014-special-report---
2031-2035 17 investment.html
18
Vie
vironmental Science
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS Energy System by 2050
dependentJacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the
change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry)
al fuels and50 United States, Journal of Energy & Environmental Science, May 17, 2015, Royal Society of Chemistry,
WWS generators based on the state roadmaps proposed here. Total power demand decreases upon conversion t
h,ps://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/susenergy2030.html
of electricity over combustion and end-use energy eciency measures. The percentages on the horizontal date axis ar
WWS that has occurred by that year. The percentages next to each WWS source are the final estimated penetration of th
hmp://thesolu0onsproject.org/
hmp://100.org
www.go100re.net
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS World
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Mee1ng,
February 15, 2014, h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
100% CALIFORNIA 100% CALIFORNIA
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry) (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
2050
Commercial/govt
Residential rooftop PV
rooftop PV Avoided Mortality and Illness Costs Percentage of California Land Needed for
7.5%
5% All New WWS Generators
Avoided health costs per year:
0.64% 2.61%
Solar PV plants Wave devices
27% PROJECTED 0.5%
ENERGY MIX
CSP plants Geothermal $128B Footprint area Spacing area
15% 5%
2.9% of State GDP
Onshore wind Hydroelectric

25% 4.4%
Air pollution deaths avoided every year: 12,528
Offshore wind Tidal turbines

10% 0.5% =1000
Plan pays for itself in as little as 2.6 years from air pollution and climate
40-Year Jobs Created Operation jobs: 142,153 cost savings alone
Number of jobs where a person

is employed for 40 consecutive years Construction jobs:
315,982
=10,000
Future Energy Costs 2050 Money in Your Pocket
Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and P = $2,000
improving energy efficiency means you need much less energy. BAU (Business as usual) WWS (Wind, water, solar)
Annual energy, health, and climate cost savings per person
Current demand Wind, Water, Solar in 2050: $7,395
-44.3%
U.S. average fossil-fuel energy costs*
10.73 c/kWh
*Health and climate external costs of fossil fuels are another 5.7c/kWh
Annual energy cost savings per person in 2050: $161

State average WWS
electricity costs
9.7 c/kWh
VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG

TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT
Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit
http://go100.me/50StateTargets http://go100.me/50StateTargets
FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj
The Solu1ons Project, h,p://thesolu1onsproject.org/infographic/#ca

Jacobson-
Delucchi
100% WWS
California
Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries,

States, and the World With Wind,
Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual
Mee1ng, February 15, 2014,
h,p://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/
jacobson/Ar1cles/I/WWS-50-USState-
plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS Calif.
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS
Rapid, affordable energy transformation
possible, study says
25 January 2016
Nature Climate Change.
Although improvements in wind and solar

generation have continued to ratchet down the cost
of producing renewable energy, these energy
resources are inherently intermittent. As a result,
utilities have invested in surplus generation
capacity to back up renewable energy generation
with natural gas-fired generators and other
reserves.
"In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead
author Christopher Clack, a physicist and
mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for
A high-resolution map based on NOAA weather data Research in Environmental Sciences at the
showing one measure of wind energy potential across
University of Colorado Boulder.
the United States in 2012. Credit: Chris Clack/CIRES
Since the sun is shining or winds are blowing

somewhere across the United States all of the time,
Global Solar PV Installa0ons grew 35% in 2015
& to 321 GW by end of 2016
Global PV Demand 2004-2020E
h,p://www.greentechmedia.com/ar1cles/read/gtm-research-global-solar-pv-installa1ons-grew-34-in-2015?
utm_source=Solar&utm_medium=Newsle,er&utm_campaign=GTMSolar
Energy Payback Time (EPBT) in Years for
dierent loca0ons and technologies
Solar Poten0al in kWh/m/yr
Source: Fraunhofer FHI, Energy Payback Time,

presenta1on slides, and photovola1c report, p. 30
32[11] Table: kWh/m/a - kilowa,-hours per square
metre per year, as Global Horizontal Irradia1on
Global Wind Power Cumula0ve Capacity 1996-2014
Globally, wind installa0ons are expected to
reach 963 GW by the end of 2025*
60-fold
increase
h,p://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/22/chinas-wind-energy-capacity-triple-2020-globaldata/, September 22nd, 2015

by Joshua S Hill *
The Progress of Wind Power in the United
States
Key Facts
4.6% of U.S. 2014 power

generation1
42% of all 2012 U.S. power capacity
additions, the highest of any
resource 2
Wind capacity more than doubled
from 2008-2012 (average of 8.7
GW/year) 3
59 GW wind capacity added from
2005 to 2014 4
11 states with > 10% wind
generation in 2014: Colorado, Idaho,
Revolution Now: The Future Arrives for Four Clean Energy Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota,
Technologies. DOE. September 2014 (in press) North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon,
South Dakota, and Texas 5
Two states with >25% wind
generation in 2014: Iowa (30%)
and South Dakota (25%)
Average of 73,000 U.S. jobs in
installation, manufacturing and
operations over 2010-2014 6
8 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov

Renewable energys growth in the United States has been equally dramatic. Ac- CHART 2: ANNUAL SOLAR AND WIND INSTALLATIONS,
CHART 1: SOLAR PV AND WIND MARKET SIZE, 2000-2014
cording to Clean Edges
2000-2014 2015 U.S. Clean Tech Leadership Index, which has tracked
($ BILLIONS)
clean-energy deployment in the states since 2010, a dozen states have roughly
doubled the percentage of electricity they receive from utility-scale renewable 60
$200
sources over the past six years. And 11 states now receive more than 10% of their
Wind Annual Installed Capacity (GW)
y shows why in-state electricity generation
Wind from renewables. Three states Iowa, South Dakota, Solar PV Annual Installed Capacity (GW)
Solar
pe dream for and Kansas now receive more than 20% of their electricity from wind power
50
solar PV and alone. California broke the 5% milestone for utility-scale solar PV generation in
rkets had ex- 2014, a first for any state. CAGR: 27.60% Wind CAGR: 20.7%
Wind CAGR: 20.59%
Solar PV CAGR: 42.83%
pound annual $150
While many factors have played a role in this growth, Solar PV CAGR: 42.8%
lled, solar PV
the declining cost of renewable energy has arguably 40
with a 20.6%
enerally expe-
been the most critical. In 2007, the global average cost of a solar
PV system spanning residential through utility-scale systems (in dollars per watt)
ergy industry.
was $7.20. By 2014, that figure had fallen to $2.47 per watt according to Clean 30
80 to 2000. $100
Edge estimates, a decline of more than 65 percent in just seven years. Likewise,
are reaping in August 2015, the U.S. Department of Energy reported that power purchase
rch organiza- agreements (PPAs) for power produced in the wind-swept middle sections of the
al and natural country had fallen to as low as 2.24 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), down from 7 20
represented cents/kWh in 2009.

4, with wind, $50
In a growing number of places, both wind and solar power are already cost-com-
ewables 10
petitive with fossil fuel-fired power plants, both in the U.S. and internationally the
s power all-important tipping point known as grid parity. Numerous organizations including
ximately the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), and the financial advisory company Lazard, have published
0
$0
recent figures 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2000showing a 2003
2001 2002 MWh2004
of onshore
2005 2006wind
2007 power can2010
2008 2009 be produced at least
2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Clean Edge research
2015 Clean Edge, Inc. (www.cleanedge.com). This report, and the models and analysis contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not
is contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge andbemay
reproduced,
not published, or summarized for distribution or incorporation into a report or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100 6
or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100 5
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT
SOLAR PV GLOBAL GROWTH?
Rate dependent upon how fiercely, effectively, and unendingly fossil
fuel advocates are at deterring, delaying, derailing Solar PV
70 25% year growth

60
60
50
40
TW 30 15% year growth
20 20
Current Global Energy Consumption in TW-years
10 10% yr growth
0 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839
2012 2050
years 2028 2035
Ray Kurzweil and Larry Page, calculate solar PV growth achieving 8 doublings within the next several decades,
h,ps://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/, December 7, 2015 / charlieonenergy
matching total global energy demand, prepared for National Academy of Engineers Workshop of Experts, 2008

Whats the Size of the U.S. Wind Resource?
Authoritative Estimate: Developable wind resource is

13 times total U.S. electricity consumption
Evolution of Wind Turbine Size
(Land Based)
Evolu0on of Wind Turbine Size (Land Based)
Ed DeMeo, Governors Wind & Solar Energy, Coali1on Policy Priori1es Workshop, June 19, 2015,
h,p://www.governorswindenergycoali1on.org/?page_id=13502
Wind power is a func1on of the cube (3rd power) of the wind
speed. If wind speed is doubled, power in the wind 8-fold. Small
dierences in wind speed lead to large dierences in power.
Higher towers intercept more constant, higher speed winds.
HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT
GLOBAL GROWTH OF RURAL- &
COASTAL-BASED WIND FARMS?
35
Expanding from 0.28 TW ~140,000 2-MW

30
in 2012 to
25
1.2 TW by 2020 (20% per 400,000 3-MW
year growth rate TW 20
2012-2020) 15
10
5 TW by 2030
(15%/year 2011-2030) 1 million 5-MW
5
0
33 TW by 2050 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
(10%/yr from 2031-2050) 6.6 million 5-MW
2012 years 2050
Wind Royalties Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
non-wind farm Wind profits
windpower farm
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm

govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
New map shows how taller wind turbines can help unlock wind's poten0al in all 50 states,
especially in the southeastern U.S.
h,p://energy.gov/eere/ar1cles/unlocking-our-na1on-s-wind-poten1al
Silicon Solar Cells
Solar cell eciencies of devices using these materials increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.
Lab-eciency > 20 % Lab-eciency > 20 % Lab-eciency > 20 %

& 2 % share overall & 2 % share overall & 2 % share overall
PV market in 2013. PV market in 2013. PV market in 2013.
Perovskite Solar Cells
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.
Crystal structure of CH3NH3PbX3

perovskites (X=I, Br and/or Cl). The
methylammonium ca0on (CH3NH3+) is
surrounded by PbX6 octahedra
Thin Film Solar Cells
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.
CIGS CdTe
Lab-eciency > 20 % & 2 % share 5 percent of worldwide PV
overall PV market in 2013. produc0on, & half the thin lm
Copper Indium Gallium Selenide solar market. FirstSolar 14 % ecient
cell. Red = Cu, Yellow = Se, Blue = In/Ga & price below 60 cents per wam
EFFICIENCY/
PRODUCTIVITY
50+% Global Total
Energy Services
I. MOTIVATION
HOW TO ACCELERATE INTEGRATED
1) Prove or disprove the economic viability of
retrofits.
DESIGN (& DEEP RENOVATION) IN
Prior to 2008, the Empire State Buildings per
THE GLOBAL BUILDING SECTOR?
to most U.S. office buildings.
208,000 buildings Annu

equivalent to
Empire State Annu
Building are
planned for Annu
construction
Peak
through 2030
source: Ed Mazria, Architecture 2030, ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS, June 4, 2014, submission to Durban Platform for Enhanced Action; citing and
Adapted from, Dobbs, Richard. Insights & Publications. 06-2012. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/
urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class
ASSETs
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Singapore%EXPO%Conven;on%&%Exhibi;on%Centre Urban%Heat%Island
Each%m2%white%roof%osets%1%ton%CO2
The long-term effect of increasing the albedo of urban areas, Hashem Akbari, H Damon Matthews and Donny Seto, Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 024004
SOLAR REFLECTORS
Over 4000 Walmart stores with
white roofs, and standard
practice since 1990
Reflects away 80% of solar heat
ASSET CITYSCAPE SCALE!
APP-Aggregating Assemblages of Buildings
Priority-Ranking Biggest Opportunities
Incorporating Financing Algorithms
COINs for learning, skills, training, practice, verification, adaptation, time saving
Arizona State University researchers have developed a new software system capable of estimating GHG emissions across entire urban
landscapes, all the way down to roads and individual buildings. Until now, scientists quantified CO2 emissions at a much broader level. Dubbed
"Hestia" after the Greek goddess of the hearth and home, the system combines extensive public database "data-mining" with traffic simulation
and building-by-building energy-consumption modeling. Its high-resolution maps clearly identify CO2 emission sources in a way that policy-
makers can utilize and the public can understand. Hestia provides a complete, three-dimensional picture of where, when, and how carbon
dioxide emissions are occurring. Credit: Kevin Gurney, Bedrich Benes, Michel Abdul-Massih, Suzanna Remec, Jim Hurst
One-Click, One-Stop Process for Solar PV
Assessment-Financing-Installation-Operation
U.S. Residential Solar PV Financing:

The Vendor, Installer and Financier Landscape, 2013-2016
GTM, US Residential Solar Finance Landscape Map, Feb 2013, http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/u.s.-residential-solar-pv-financing
Deep-Dive Efficiency - Factor 5+ Industry & Mfg Sector
Poor
Most o
Graphic by Stanford Kay Studio. Reprinted by permission from Reinventing Fire, published by Chelsea Green, 2011.
f
in a conventional power the fuel ene
plant a rg
nd only y is lost eve
data center a tiny n
fractio before it lea
n prov v
ides re es the
al valu
e.
energ
y is los
t in th
e proc
ess
ENERGY LOSS
energy -67% power plant -10% transmission and distribution
into plant: -33% cooling
100 W
-4% lighting
-15% uninterruptible power supply
-10% fans
-35% power supply
-85% underutilization
-40% inefficient &
zero-value applications
inefficient
business
processes
Some of the most exciting
ENERGY INTO 100 W
FOCUS work RMI has done, and is Mo
ive U.S. industrial sector that
As we electricity
complete supply 30 RMI has a long history of collaborating with industry st o
Graphic by Stanford Kay Studio. Reprinted by permission from Reinventing Fire, published by Chelsea Green, 2011.
oductivity by 2050 and is Heres
16on solutions, design of products and processes and the
h data center
doing, isinwith our industrial power fpthlanetfuel energy is
a conventional
energy ow whole-s and on lo
ly a tin st even befo
r savings.
Reinventing Fire research, application of renewable and alternative energy sources.
at eac ys
h step tems design
data center
collaborators. We work with y fracti re
Factor 5+
server 1.4 0.9 on pro it leaves th
of the vides re e
RMI is reinvigorating its We push energy
clients hard on efficiency, renewables,
applications and intovalue can save some of the best engineers and al valu
e.
business
related sustainability issues. customer
Our strengths value:
in working
chain.
r generates more than 40% planners in the world, who feel energ
industrial work. This is a processes
4 y is lost
employs almost 20 million with industry include our much and
knowledge of energy less than in the
process
r mills, chemical plants,
3
efficiency technologies, our expertise in shaping 1W that RMI really adds something
, light manufacturing and then cut
utility
key
losses
part of RMIs heritage integrative, cross-functional design experiences, our
information-gathering network, and our professionalism.
2
to their energy
products, investments, ENERGY LOSS
This mighty engine consumed then cut -67% power plant -10% transmission and distribution
andcooling
oneandwe intend to
1
ergy in 2010, 76% of whichby 50%
then cut IT
We facilitate innovative thinking and bring together capabilities, and strategies. We
into plant: -33% cooling
eater adoption of energy power supply unusual partners. We have new clients in the mining, 100 W
ty to increase the productivity keep active
energy by and vibrant.
equipments
internal losses
debloat softwareautomotive, industrial process, and oil and gas industries. are at the front of a wave of -4% lighting
-15% uninterruptible power supply
s and driving global and ensure that We look forward to sharing more in the future as this work better design combined with
As 90%
before,

RMI will
by 75% work every computationunfoldscreating rapid mutual learning, teachable cases, -10% fans
cycle is needed and competitive pressure for emulation. more responsible, long-term -35% power supply
28 trillion, U.S. industry would 98 with select major fi rms to thinkingand weve been -85% underutilization
-40% inefficient &
1%
resent value return from
Companies that can overcome maximize 29
energy15 efficiency helping shape that wave. zero-value applications
0.4 W inefficient
l barriers and make the bold
efficiency improvementsA MULTIPLYING across
EFFECT
their operations business
processes
globally competitiveand The savingsfocusing ongoradically
compound as you upstream, multiplying Robert Hutch Hutchinson,
atile fossil fuel prices. ENERGY INTO 100 W
downstream savings by up to about 100-fold.
productive processes Less than RMI Managing
He
Director
electricity supply 30
res h data center
energy ow whole-s 16
emerging energy efficiency and effective products. of the power-plant fuel that makes at eac ys
h step tems design
of the
server 1.4 0.9
ing waste heat, and using
electricity for a data center value can save 21applications energy into
ape and optimize subsystems We may also help drive chain. business customer value:
actually creates
050 it is possible to reduce 4 processes much less than
ast 9% below 2010 levels even fundamental changes then cut
3
1W
customer value.
ows by 84%. 2
in buildings, fleets, self- utility losses then cut

by 50% cooling and
1
forming industrial process and then cut IT

and oil and all but 10 quads generation of power, and power supply
energy by
equipments
internal losses
debloat software
dustry, even before adopting and ensure that
corporate strategy. 90% by 75% every computation
cycle is needed
98
29
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
Now use 1/2 global power

30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI
3D, 4D, 5D, 6D, 7D BIM
Continuous, smarter performance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04-G53mbmc
Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally
Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015
Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China
Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all
personal motorized transportation in China.
$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh

twice as expensive as solar PV electricity
Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons
for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
Resources
WIND SIMs
WIND SIMs
Computer model wind farm optimization Real-world Wind turbine performance metrics
3D Simulation Collaboration Rooms Simulation Wind Turbine Erection w/ Crawler Crane

Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
BIG BIM, BIG DATA
BIG CONTINUOUS RESULTS
Cradle$to$Cradle'Con6nuous'Commissioning''
BIM7+
(Cradle-to-Cradle)
Neil(Calvert,(Why(We(Care(About(BIM,(DirecNons(Magazine,(Dec.(11,(2013,(h,p://www.direcNonsmag.com/arNcles/whyPwePcarePaboutPbim/368436((
Integrated'Designs'&'Integrated'Opera6ons' 36
Lifecycle(&(CradlePtoPCradle(
From Integrated designs to integrated operations
I
N
I
HVAC high-side Occupancy T
N
E
buildings'
T
G
E
R
G
R HVAC low-side Weather A
T
A
E
T
E
Building D
D
Lighting Loads
O
D
E Computing
36(Mc2' Operating hours
P
E
R
S
A
I
T
N
Infosys BPO awarded 5-Star Rating by B

I
G Plug Loads Occupant behavior O
S
N
Design stage
Efficiency (BEE) S
Realistic scenario
most efficient/peak
5-star rating signifies being the-variables
most energy efficient
Bangalore, India - May 13, 2010: Infosys BPO, the busin

subsidiary of Infosys Technologies, today announced that it has
rating for energy efficiency by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) f
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(
Phase 2 campus in Hinjewadi, Pune, India. The rating is under
innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014(
buildings scheme of BEE that rates office buildings in India from
rendered on a scale of 1 to 5 stars, where a 5-star rating signifi
efficient. The rating is valid for a period of 5 years.
13
Integrated and goal oriented design approach

HVAC(Goal( Ligh3ng(Goal( Water(Goal(
! LPD of 0.45 W/sqft ! Less than 25 LPD for

G ! Max envelope heat gain 1.0 W/sqft
O ! Total building @ 750-1000 sqft/TR ! 90% of building to be day lit > 110 lux office building
A ! No Glare throughout the year ! Zero discharge
! 25 deg C, 55% RH
L( ! 100% self sufficient
! Architects ! Architects ! PHE Engineers

T ! Facade Specialists ! Facade Specialists ! Architects
E ! IT Specialists ! Lighting Specialists ! Landscape Architects
A ! Electrical Designers
! HVAC Engineers
M
! Lighting Specialists
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014(
Building Analytics in action SMALL'SENSORS'
BIG'DATA'
At one client facility running Building Analytics, the preheating VISUAL'ANALYTICS'
coil and cooling coil were operating simultaneously and wasting
more than $900 and 80,000 kBTUs on a daily basis. The problem
was pinpointed at a leaking chilled water valve that once repaired
produced $60,000 in annual savings with ROI in the first month.
Building name:#VJMEJOH Return fan

status
Equipment name: ")6
Analysis name: ")6DPJMBOBMZTJT Outdoor
air temp
Estimated daily cost savings:
Occupancy Simultaneous
Problem: is at set point heating and cooling
Excess or simultaneous heating Supply air
and cooling temperature
set point
5IFQSFIFBUJOHDPJMBOEPSDPPMJOHDPJMBSF
either providing excess heating or cooling Mixed air Supply fan
or operating simultaneously. temperature status
sensor Heating Cooling
5IJTNBZXBTUFBSPVOE valve Preheating valve
position discharge position
BOEL#56TPWFSEBZ T

temperature
Possible causes:
7BMWFJTOPUTFBUJOHQSPQFSMZ
and is leaking.
7BMWFJTTUVDL
> Temperature sensor error or sensor
installation error is causing improper
control of the valves.
BIM'Lifecycle''
20%'reduc6on'in'build'
costs'(buy'4,'get'one'free!)'
Con6nuous'Commissioning'
33%'reduc6on'is'costs'over'
the'life6me'of'the'building'
47%'to'65%'reduc6on'in'
conicts'and're$work'
during'construc6on'
44%'to'59%'increase'in'the'
overall'project'quality'
35%'to'43%'reduc6on'in'
risk,'beLer'predictability'of'
outcomes'
34%'to'40%'beLer'
performing'completed'
infrastructure'
32%'to'38%'improvement'
in'review'and'approval'
cycles'
11
Benchmarking of Infosys buildings US India
Design%target% Units% Exis:ng%(US)% BeXer% Best%prac:ce% Infosys%

Delivered(energy(intensity( kBtu/sfYy( 90( 40Y60( <30( <25(
LPD:(Design( W/sf( 1.5( 0.8( 0.4Y0.6( 0.4Y0.6(
LPD:(Opera3onal( W/sf( 1.5( 0.6( 0.1Y0.3( <0.15(
Installed(computers/appliances..( W/sf( 4Y6( 1Y2( <0.5( <0.7(
Glazing(RYvalue((center(of(glass)( sfYF0Yh/Btu( 1Y2( 6Y10( 20( >5(
Window(RYvalue((including(frame)( sfYF0Yh/Btu( 1( 3( 7Y8( >5(
Glazing(spectral(selec3vity( Ke(=(Tvis/SF( 1( 1.2( >2.0( >2.0(
Roof(solar(absorptance(and(emilance( ,(# 0.8,(0.2( 0.4,(0.4( 0.08,(0.97( 0.18,(0.99(
Installed(mechanical(cooling( sf/ton( 250Y350( 500Y600( 1200Y1400+( 750(Y(1000(
Cooling(designYhour(eciency( kW/ton( 1.9( 1.2Y1.5( <0.6( <0.59(
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(09P15P2014(
Decrease'in'project'risk''
with'increase'in'BIM'details'
A/E'Firms' Issa, Suermann and Olbina
Contractors'
Owners'
Cradle'to'Cradle*Facility*Lifespan*Integra6on**
Risk
2D 3D 4D 5D 6D 7D
Figure 3: Decrease in project risk with the increase in model details
VICO Control is a location based virtual construction system that allows the creation of compressed schedules which al-
Neil(Calvert,(Why(We(Care(About(BIM,(DirecNons(Magazine,(Dec.(11,(2013,(
low the user to determine progress by comparing actual productivity to the project schedule. Many BIM models are not able
to store information beyond what h,p://www.direcNonsmag.com/arNcles/whyPwePcarePaboutPbim/368436((
the building looks like and as such do not allow the user to store info on the construction
process. VICO Control allows integrated construction of the whole project and allows the user to link duration and cost in-
formation directly to the model. Accordingly the user can instantly see the impact of changes in scope and schedule on the
entire project. It links the building model to estimating and scheduling information going from 3D to 5D and allows the user
to add additional parameters to each and every element in the BIM. Thus, the user can attach a recipe describing the means
Calif. Community Colleges FUSION
Facilities Utilization Space Inventory Options Net
The FUSION + CCC GIS

+ Onuma Collaboration COLLABORATE
Platform links three

separate web tools to
create a flexible and
powerful means for
districts to work on
projects across the
facilities life-cycle, from
campus master planning
to energy monitoring to
maintenance job ticketing.
BIG BIM Bang -- Enterprise BIM and BIG Data -- Sharing Data, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls
Exponential Organization Methods
CITIZEN CHANGE AGENTS
CHANGING PUBLIC POLICIES
&
MARKET PRACTICES
CHANGE READINESS MATRIX
100
Leadership Change Capacity
Ready for Ready for
Learning Change
Ready for Ready for

Resistance Frustra0on
0
0 Organiza0on Change Capacity 100
h,p://www.ascd.org/publica1ons/books/109019/chapters/The-Organiza1onal-Change-Readiness-Assessment.aspx
David Roberts, Vox, Jan. 27, 2016, h,p://www.vox.com/2016/1/27/10849564/renewable-energy-tax-credits-big-deal
Average Retail Residen0al Electricity Rates
Compared to Values of Solar in 11 Cost-Benet Analysis
Figure ES-1: Retail Electricity Rates and the Values of Solar Energy in 11 Cost-Benefit Analyses.
35.00
Retail Electricity Rate

30.00 Value of Solar
25.00 (U)Studies wrimen by,

or commissioned by,
u0li0es
Cents per kWh
20.00

(PUC)Studies wrimen
by, or commissioned by,
15.00
public u0li0es
commissions
Retail Electricity Rate

10.00 Value of Solar
ons
(O)Studies wrimen by,
or commissioned by, non-
5.00 u0lity organiza0ons
U U O O PUC O O O O PUC
0.00
U
(U)Studies written by, or commissioned by, utilities

h,ps://ilsr.org/solar-net-metering-a-subsidy-to-u1li1es/ John Farrell, June 25, 2015
(PUC)Studies written by, or commissioned by, public utilities commissions
(O)Studies written by, or commissioned by, non-utility organizations
t Of these 11 analyses, the median value of Net metering policies have been critical to the
ety, or did it only consider a limited number of direct Value Provided by Solar Energy
benefits to the grid and the utility? Usually Exceeds Benefits from Net
The most basic way to value solar, and the most Metering
Categories of Benets & Costs Included in Each
common, is to calculate the avoided costs that result
Nearly all analyses that consider a full range of solar
from its expansion.29 In other words, what costs do
energy benefits find that the value provided by
Value of Solar Energy Cost-Benet Analysis*
Table 2: Categories of Benefits and Costs Included in Each Solar Energy Cost-Benefit Analysis.*
Avoided Cost of
Costs of Avoided Capital and Reduced Environ- Avoided
Solar Not Energy Capacity Financial Grid mental Greenhouse Economic Total (cents
Author Integration Specied Costs Investment Risks Resiliency Compliance Gas Emissions Development per kWh)
SAIC 3.56
Xcel 8.04
CPR (Austin) 10.70
CPR (Utah) 11.60
CPR (San
Antonio) 15.80
Synapse 16.90
Crossborder
Energy (AZ) 23.50
CPR (NJ) 28.10
Acadia 29.06
CPR (PA) 31.90
Maine PUC 33.60
*Colored cells represent categories included in the solar energy cost-benet calcula0on
*Colored cells represent categories that were included in the solar energy cost-benefit calculation
Solar Energy is Worth More Than the Benefits from Net Metering 15
SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Roooop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey Hallock, Fron1er Group
Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center, Summer 2015
when evaluating programs that compen- policies, including multifamily homes or homes
sate customers for the solar electricity they without out sunny roofs, by implementing
provide to the grid. virtual net metering programs.
A Comparison of Cost-Benet Analyses of Solar

Energy by Study and Category
Figure ES-2: A Comparison of Cost-Benefit Analyses of Solar Energy by Study and Category.
32
27
Value of Solar (cents per kWh)
22
17
Additional Environmental Benefits
12 Avoided Cost of Environmental Compliance

Grid Resiliency
Reduced Financial Risks and Electricity Prices
7
Avoided Capital and Capacity Investment
Avoided Energy Costs
2 Not Specified
Costs of Solar Integration
-3
(U)Studies written by, or commissioned by, utilities

SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Roooop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey Hallock, Fron1er Group
(PUC)Studies written by, or commissioned by, public utilities commissions
Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center, Summer 2015
(O)Studies written by, or commissioned by, non-utility organizations
*Lines indicate the value of solar energy as calculated in the analysis

Clean energy investments in 2015
hit new record of $329bn
Luke Mills, Joseph Byrne, Clean Energy Investment: Q4 2015 Factpack, January 2016, Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
and on-bill models have developed independently as a response to market demand.
Figure 2: Energy Efficiency Finance Models
Managed
Energy On-Bill
Energy Savings Energy Property Assessed
Financing Services Financing/
Performance Services Clean Energy
Model Agreement Repayment
Contract (ESPC) Agreement (PACE)
(ESA) (OBF/OBR)
(MESA)
Market
High for MUSH;
low for
*
Low Low Low Low
Penetration Commercial and
Industrial
MUSH, MUSH, Residential,
MUSH,
Target Market Commercial, Commercial, Residential, Commercial,
Commercial,
Segment and and Commercial and
and Industrial
Industrial Industrial Industrial
Balance Sheet On or Off On or Off On or Off Undetermined On or Off
Typical $250,000 - $250,000 - $2,000 - $2.5 $5,000 -
Unlimited
Project Size $10 million $10 million million $350,000
Allows for
Extensive Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Retrofits
Repayment Energy Energy Property Via utility
Energy savings
Method savings savings assessments bill
Depends on Equipment;
Security/
financing (e.g., Equipment Equipment Assessment Lien Service
Collateral
lease or debt) termination
Responsibility ESCO or MESA
Customer Customer Customer
for Utility Bills Customer provider
*MUSH= Municipalities, Universities, Schools & Hospitals
This section
source: Innovations describes in
and Opportunities each of Efficiency
Energy these emerging models
Finance, White Paper, in
2ndbrief
edition,and
Mayprovides anSonsini,
2012, Wilson, assessment
Goodrichof the
& Rosati
advantages and disadvantages associated with each.
Current PACE-enabled states include AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, IL, GA,
KY, LA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NH, NJ,NY, OH, OR, TX, UT, VA, WI.

PACE program representa0ves in most of these states operate in an
isolated few municipali0es and do not yet have statewide reach.
California, the na0ons PACE hot-spot, is home to the most PACE
programs, which cover the vast majority of Califs coun0es & ci0es
PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy)
1) There is no cost or investment up-front. PACE providers nance
up to 100%, helping businesses with internal funding shortages.
2) Property owners see a posi1ve cash ow due to energy savings
that lower monthly opera1ng expenses.
3) PACE assessments stay with the property if the building is sold.
This allows building owners to make deep energy eciency
improvements without having to pay o the nancing upon sale.
Instead, the payments can transfer to a new owner.
4) There is the ability to pass payments through to tenants. PACE
projects are nanced using a property tax assessment. If the
owner of a building has several tenants leasing the space of the
building, the line item PACE payments will be paid back by the
tenants through their building taxes.
h,p://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/upping-the-pace-for-solar
PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy)
4) At the same 1me, tenants will see cost savings on electricity

bills while leasing space in that building. This allows tenant
and landlord interests to align as the landlord gets the
tenants to pay the bill, but the tenants get to see the cost
savings.
5) PACE oers low interest rates; which tend to be in the 6-7%
range, some1mes even lower if incen1ves are provided.
6) PACE-nanced improvements can increase long-term
property value. PACE adds a lien item to the property taxes,
allowing sellers to price in the value of energy eciency
projects when a property is sold.
7) It allows customers to use their internal capital for purposes
core to their business.
h,p://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/upping-the-pace-for-solar
emissions has also dropped
600
As Solar & Wind Solar (PV)
Cost of avoiding CO2-eq emissions

500
energy costs have
fallen, the cost of
reducing emissions 400
[$ / ton CO2-eq]
has also dropped
300
200
100
Wind
Professor Jessika Trancik, Energineering 0
Systems, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,
h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-
charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
-100
2000 2014
Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
Chinas growth is set to triple by 2025,
reaching an es0mated 347 GW by 2025
Worlds Most Ecient Roo}op Solar Panel
h,p://www.greentechmedia.com/ar1cles/read/Worlds-Most-Ecient-Roooop-Solar-Panel-Revisited , Eric Weso

October 13, 2015
h,p://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-cost-decreases-to-ensure-strong-demand-in-2016-and-beyond-energytrend
Newest Wind Turbines stand 110 to 140 meters tall in hub height,
up to 1 0mes the height of the Statue of Liberty
h,p://energy.gov/eere/ar1cles/unlocking-our-na1on-s-wind-poten1al
Wind Vision 2030
projected growth of the wind industry by 2030
h,p://energy.gov/ar1cles/new-interac1ve-map-shows-big-poten1al-america-s-wind-energy-future
Wind Vision 2050
projected growth of the wind industry over the next 35 years
Wind energy could support by 2050:

600,000+ jobs in manufacturing, installa0on, maintenance & suppor0ng services.
Save $508 billion from reduced pollutants and $280 billion in natural gas costs.
Save 260 billion gallons of water otherwise used by the electric power sector.
h,p://energy.gov/ar1cles/new-interac1ve-map-shows-big-poten1al-america-s-wind-energy-future
Wind and solar energy have grown faster than expected
7000 600
Fossil Nuclear
6000 500
Global power capacity [GWp]

5000
400
4000
300
Actual deployment 2014
3000 2013
Deployment projection from 2012
200
2000 International Energy Agency 2011
World Energy Outlook 2010
100 report reference case 2009
1000 scenario from year: 2008
2006
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1200 600
Wind Solar
1000 500

800 400
600 300
400 200
200 100
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Solar and wind energy costs have fallen
as their markets have grown
200 400
Global power capacity

Solar (PV) deployment Wind deployment
Global power capacity 150 300
[GWp]
[GWp]
100 12600% growth 200 2300% growth
since 2000 since 2000
50 100
0 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
300
100
Solar (PV) module price
Solar (PV) price Wind cost

250
Cost of electricity
80
200
[$/MWh]
60
[$/Wp]
150
40
100
86% decline 35% decline
20 since 2000 50 since 2000
0 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,
h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
Opportunity for further cost decline
Opportunity for further cost decline under
Opportunity for further cost decline
under countries climate pledges (INDCs)
under countries climate pledges (INDCs)
countries climate pledges (INDCs)
250 250
Wind Solar (PV)
Cost of electricity [$/MWh]

Cost of electricity [$/MWh]
200 200
+ Health impacts
Direct cost
150 150
100 + Health impacts 100

Direct cost
50
50
0
0
14
tio 0
14
14
ec 03
n
20
20
20
oj 2
tio )
w lar era 14
30 S um 4
14
ec PV
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h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-
demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop 2015 best sites
h,ps://ilsr.org/congress-gets-renewable-tax-credit-extension-right/ John Farrell, Jan 25, 2016
h,p://repowering.org
REPOWERmap
h,p://repowering.org
CHINA SOLAR
Between 2000 and 2012,
Chinas solar energy output
increased from 3 MW to 21,000
MW. And its solar output
increased by 67 % between
2013 and 2014 alone.

CHINA WIND
between 1997 and 2014 China's
wind energy became the
na0on's 3rd-largest power
source: in less than 15 years,
wind produc0on grew from 146
MW to over 114,700 MW, and
plans on doubling that to 200
GW by 2020.
h,p://www.power-technology.com/features/featurechinas-energy-revolu1on-4643231/ 11 August 2015 Eva Grey
US electricity sector CO
TURE CLIMATE 2 emissions (le} axis, bars) and
CHANGE DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2921 ARTICL
LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) (right axis, diamonds)
NEWS simulated results
0.14
2,500
Electricity sector CO2 emissions (million metric tons)
0.13
Average cost of electricity (2013 US$ kWh1)

11.76 0.12
2,000 11.50
0.11
1,500 9.84
0.10
10.21 10.04
8.54 0.09
1,000
8.57 0.08
37%
33% 0.07
500
16%
61% 0.06
6%
78%
0 0.05
1990 2012 2030 Coal High-cost RE Mid-cost RE Low-cost RE
reference scenario Low-cost NG Mid-cost NG High-cost NG
Blue bars are for historical data and an Interna1onal Energy Agency projec1on to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our op1miza1on model (the values
2 | The USare the average of the three years of simula1ons). The coal scenario is iden1cal to the HRLG scenario, but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamonds represent
electricity sector CO2 emissions (left axis, bars) and levelized cost of electricity (right axis, diamonds). The blue bars are for his
the levelized cost of electricity per kilowa,-hour (kWh) to consumers in 2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions rela1ve to 1990 levels.
nd an International Energy Agency projection to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our optimization model (the values are t
Future cost-compe11ve electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions, Alexander E. MacDonald,
ge of the three years of simulations). The coal scenario is identical to the HRLG scenario, but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamon
Christopher T. M. Clack, et al., Nature Climate Change, Jan. 25, 2016
ent the levelized cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to consumers in 2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions re
0 levels.
Energy Storage
h,p://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ar1cles/2016/01/energy-storage-set-for-record-year-in-2016.html?
cmpid=renewablesolar01232016&eid=289707094&bid=1288430
FIVE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
ENABLING THE SHIFT TO 100%
1 2 3 4 5
DISTRIBUTED SOLAR UTILITY-SCALE ENERGY STORAGE NET ZERO BUILDINGS AN EMBOLDENED,
BECOMES COST- RENEWABLES COMPLETES THE AND SMART RESILIENT GRID
EFFECTIVE ACROSS GROW UP PUZZLE CONNECTED DEVICES TAKES SHAPE
GEOGRAPHIES DRIVE EFFICIENCY
RENAISSANCE
1 DISTRIBUTED SOLAR BECOMES

The cost curves are undeniable. The plummeting prices of solar panels have been
COST-EFFECTIVE ACROSS GEOGRAPHIES well documented, but the industry has recently been attacking balance-of-system
Without question, the proliferation of ever-cheaper distributed solar generation costs and so-called soft costs (such as marketing, customer acquisition, permitting,
residential, commercial, and community is a key driver toward the 100% RE and installation) as well. Bottom line: installed costs of solar PV systems around $3
goal. Rooftop or onsite, ground-mounted solar PV arrays are a growing part of per watt in the U.S. today will plunge some 40% to less than $2/watt by the end
the toolkitGeng to 100, A Status Report on Rising Commitments Among Corpora0ons and Governments to Reach
to expand clean-energy use by individuals, large and small businesses, of 2017, according to Deutsche Bank projections.
100% Renewables , November 2015, CleanTech, prepared for SolarCity
governments, and increasingly, even utilities themselves.
2015 Clean Edge, Inc. (www.cleanedge.com). This report, and the models and analysis contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not
be reproduced, published, or summarized for distribution or incorporation into a report or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100
Clean energy investments in 2015
hit new record of $329bn
China accoun0ng for $111bn, USA $59 billion, and solar

amracted the largest chunk of funding.
Luke Mills, Joseph Byrne, Clean Energy Investment: Q4 2015 Factpack, January 2016, Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
h,p://www.greentechmedia.com/ar1cles/read/Apple-Tackles-Supply-Chain-Emissions-with-2GW-Clean-Energy-Ini1a1ve-in-Ch , Julia Pyper,
October 22, 2015; h,p://www.fastcoexist.com/3054217/how-google-and-other-giant-corpora1ons-are-going-100-renewable , Adele Peters,
December 7, 2015
Year-on-Year Growth of Global Solar PV 2001-2015
Solar has been doubling every 2 years since 2000
74%
26%
Doubling 0me = 72 divided by percentage

Cumula0ve installed Solar PV Globally 2000-2015
The CAGR of global solar PV installa0ons

from 2000-2015 has been 42%
In 2000, global installed solar PV capacity paled in comparison to

todays gures. Es1mates put the total installed PV capacity in 2000
at around 1.4GW. To put this gure in perspec1ve, China alone
installed ten 1mes this amount of solar PV in just 2014.

Fortunately, Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever
Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever
$4.00 Best-in-Class
Q3 2014 Bottom-Up Average System Price ($/W)
$3.60
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50 $2.27
$2.00
$1.68
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Residential Commercial Utility
Modules Inverters and AC Subsystem
DC Electrical BOS Structural BOS
Direct Labor Engineering and PII
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
Next Wave of U.S. Solar, Shayle Kann, Sr VP, Research, Greentech Media, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2014
U0lity Solar PPA Prices Now Consistently
Below $70/MWh (<7 cents/kWh)
$200
$175
$150
$125
PPA Price ($/MWh)
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Contract Execution Date
GTM, Shayle Kann, The Evolu1on of the U.S. Solar Market, April 2015
Chinas solar PV capacity is expected
to hit 150 GW by 2020
CHINA
INDIA
India has announced plans to set up 100 GW of solar power over 5
years and 175 GW by 2020; a target double the target set by China
between 2011 and 2015.
h,p://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/14/trina-solar-open-solar-pv-module-manufacturing-hub-india/, November
14th, 2014 by Mridul Chadha
CHILE
10 MW in 2013, to 850 MW in 2015, w/ 2,200 MW under

construc0on, 10,000 MW in pipeline of approved projects,
and 4,000 MW of projects s0ll being vemed.
h,p://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/19/2015-solar-installa1on-gures-con1nue-rolling-algeria-chile/
AFRICA Agahozo Shalom Youth Village in the hills east of Kigali, Rwanda
A 20-fold increase in o-grid power connec1ons is among the aims of a plan to achieve
universal energy access in Africa by 2025. The plan, announced by the African
Development Bank (AFB), envisages 160 GW of new grid-connected genera1on capacity
and 75 million new o-grid power connec1ons. There is 10,000 GW of solar poten1al on
the African con1nent according to the AFB.

US$60-90 billion a year is needed, compared with the US$22 billion invested in the sector
in 2014. According to the AFB President, "If Africa were to increase its annual spending on
energy from 0.4% of GDP to 3.4%, this would solve the problem completely. This could also
be done by puzng an end to subsidies for products such as kerosene and diesel.
h,p://www.pv-tech.org/news/davos-2016-energy-new-deal-for-africa-targets-universal-access-by-2025
The Wind Vision Report
The Benefits of Wind Energy Today
The avoided CO2 emissions from wind energy today help offset the equivalent of more
Key Fact than 24 million passenger vehicles
The Wind Vision Report
The Study Scenario
The Potential of 35% of the Countrys Electricity Coming from Wind Energy by 2050
The Wind Vision Study Scenario results in modest increases in electricity cost in the near- and mid-
term (<1% price increase), but in the long term electricity costs savings of 2% are achieved by 2050
h,p://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/eciency_chart.jpg
Bo,om line: unless a PV system is at least 15% ecient, it will not survive in the marketplace. The cost pressure is high,
because PV competes with fossil fuels which are subsidized directly and indirectly, and because the residen1al market
deals with addi1onal soo costs for permizng, electricians, inspectors and installers. In the U.S. this typically doubles
the cost of the panels. Bringing down these soo costs would do much more than any poten1al eciency gains on the
innova1on side of the equa1on. the industry has been booming for years and s1ll is: prices are down and sales are up in
what in the U.S. is a $150 billion-a-year market.
Solar PV module Roadmaps 2005 and 2010
Photovoltaics Interna1onal, fourth quarter, 30th edi1on, December 2015, h,p://www.pv-tech.org

The Top 10 PV module manufacturers ranking list for 2015

1. Trina Solar 6. First Solar
2. Canadian Solar 7. Yingli Green
3. JinkoSolar 8. SFCE
4. JA Solar 9. ReneSola
5. Hanwha Q CELLS 10. SunPower Corp
Photovoltaics Interna1onal, fourth quarter, 13th edi1on, December 2015, h,p://www.pv-tech.org
Rela1ve market shares of casted and mono c-Si. Source: h,p://www.itrpv.net.
and inverter) and other costs each account for about half the decline. Another
period has been the steady increase in the size of installed systems, from an ave
2000 to over 6 kWAverage installed prices of U.S. PV systems
in 2013.
in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W
$16
$14 $13.37
Installed Price (2013 $/W)
$12
$10
42%
$8
$6 $4.77
$4 51%
$2
$0
2000 price Module Inverter Other costs 2013 price
Figure Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric OShaughnessy,
1. Average installed prices of U.S. PV systems in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W.
Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016
Distribu0on of installed prices
forSolar PV systems installed in 2013
Figure 2. Distribution of installed prices for systems installed in 2013.

Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric OShaughnessy,
3.2. Geographic Distribution of LP Systems
Figure 3 shows the share of installations in each U.S. state that is LP (at or below the 10th
Share of systems in each state that is P10
Gray states have price data but are missing data on other characteris0cs,
so they are dropped from all other analyses
Figure 3. Share of systems in each state that is P10. Gray states have price data but are missing data
Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric OShaughnessy,
on other characteristics, so they are dropped from all other analyses.
3.3. Installer Firms
Clean Energy Collec1ve, Mid Valley, CO, Clean Energy Collec1ve, Colorado Springs CO,
h,p://cleaneasyenergy.com/cecblog/ h,p://cleaneasyenergy.com/cecblog/
GTM predicts community solar will grow at 60% between 2014 and
2020, resul1ng in 1.8 GW of new solar capacity by 2020.

NREL forecasts even greater growth, es1ma1ng community solar
will achieve 5.5 to 11 GW of new distributed solar systems, and US
$8 to US$16 billion in cumula1ve investment.
h,p://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/community_solar_hype_or_hope , Nov 03, 2015,Amit Ronen

New Yorks Public Service Solar PV
Commission noted in their
Reforming the Energy Vision Regulatory Policy
Framework and Implementa0on plan order:

U/li/es, and this Commission, could respond
[to the challenges facing the industry] by
clinging to the tradi/onal business model for as
long as possible, relying on protec/ve taris,
regulatory delay, and other defenses against
innova/on.

Alterna/vely, we can iden/fy and build Wind
regulatory, u/lity, and market models that
create new value for consumers and support
market entrants and this new form of
intermodal compe//onin other words,
embrace the changes that are shaking the
tradi/onal system and turn them to New Yorks
economic and environmental advantage.

We decisively take the laKer approach.

2050 Motors IBIS EV, all-carbon body, 800 Europeans bought 100,000 EVs in 2015,
lbs lighter than Tesla. 47% more than in 2014. Renault's Zoe
(above) was the top seller.
Renault Twizy EV urban runabout: Malaysia Lauches First EV

legal for teenagers to drive in France. Carshare Program
Adomani Electric Bus in
San Jose, CA
eQuestXL electric school bus has range up to 85 miles
55% of all U.S. school buses are diesel-powered, averaging 7 mpg.

Americas 480,000 school buses burn 823 million gallons of fuel
annually, both diesel and gasoline traveling, 5.5 billion miles while
transpor1ng 26 million students per day. And everyday those
millions of students, as well as the commuters that share the road
with them, are exposed to the carcinogens in the fuel.
Worlds biggest EV and storage maker BYD
predicts annual doubling in market
Chinas BYD CEO expects the size

of the worlds EV market to
treble in the coming year.

BYD does not see itself as a
compe0tor to Tesla. Tesla is
concentra0ng at the high end,
while BYD is looking at mass-
market models.
h,p://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/worlds-biggest-ev-and-storage-maker-predicts-3-fold-increase-in-market-21610
Eciency/Produc0vity Gains
Energy eciency in Brazil, China, the E.U., Mexico, and the U.S. can reduce the
cost of decarboniza0on by up to $250 billion per year and reduce annual
emissions by 11 billion metric tons (Gt) of CO2e in 2030 roughly two-thirds of
the GHG reduc0ons needed in these regions to limit warming to 2C.
How Energy Eciency Cuts Costs for a 2C Future, Faunhofer Ins0tute, Nov 24, 2015, h,p://www.climateworks.org/
report/how-energy-eciency-cuts-costs-for-a-2c-future/
GEs Current
GEs start-up company,
Current, which is backed by
GEs balance sheet, brings
together GEs LED, Solar,
Energy Storage, and EV
businesses as a one-stop
shop for early customers like
Walgreens, JPMorgan Chase,
Hilton Worldwide and
others.
TeraWam
Ini0a0ve
French energy giant Engie has launched a major public-private
ini1a1ve that aims to ensure that 1,000GW of solar capacity is
installed around the world by 2030.

Incoming president and CEO, Isabelle Kocher (pictured above),
is nailing her colors to the mast. Engie is a giant of a company, with
opera1ons in 70 countries and 150,000 employees

The 1,000GW target might be below some of the more op1mis1c
forecasts for 2030, par1cularly those by Greenpeace and others (and
it should be noted that Greenpeace, which predicts up to 1,800GW of
solar, has been the most accurate forecaster in the last 10 years).
O-Grid Solar Company Connec0ng
12,000 homes a month
We think of it as an energy services business model that removes
risk for customers. It uses nancing measures eec0vely a solar
lease to oer the latest in solar technology for less than or equal
to a customers average energy spend on kerosene and diesel.
We are oering
ligh0ng, phone
charging, and
increasing access to a
modern lifestyle.
h,p://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/the-o-grid-solar-company-connec1ng-12000-homes-a-month-19292
STORAGE
02 WHAT SERVICES CAN BATTERIES PROVIDE TO THE ELECTRICITY GRID?
TABLE 1: ISO / RTO SERVICES

ISO / RTO SERVICES
SERVICE NAME DEFINITION
The purchase of wholesale electricity while the locational marginal price (LMP) of energy is low (typically
during nighttime hours) and sale of electricity back to the wholesale market when LMPs are highest.
Energy Arbitrage
Load following, which manages the difference between day-ahead scheduled generator output, actual
generator output, and actual demand, is treated as a subset of energy arbitrage in this report.
Frequency regulation is the immediate and automatic response of power to a change in locally sensed
system frequency, either from a system or from elements of the system.1 Regulation is required to
Frequency Regulation
ensure that system-wide generation is perfectly matched with system-level load on a moment-by-
ISO / RTO SERVICES
moment basis to avoid system-level frequency spikes or dips, which create grid instability.
Spinning reserve is the generation capacity that is online and able to serve load immediately in
Spin/Non-Spin response to an unexpected contingency event, such as an unplanned generation outage. Non-
Reserves spinning reserve is generation capacity that can respond to contingency events within a short period,
typically less than ten minutes, but is not instantaneously available.
Voltage regulation ensures reliable and continuous electricity flow across the power grid. Voltage on
Voltage Support the transmission and distribution system must be maintained within an acceptable range to ensure
that both real and reactive power production are matched with demand.
In the event of a grid outage, black start generation assets are needed to restore operation to larger
Black Start power stations in order to bring the regional grid back online. In some cases, large power stations are
themselves black start capable.
Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited
UTILITY SERVICES
baAeries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain Ins1tute, September 2015. <<h,p://www.rmi.org/
electricity_ba,ery_value>>
Utility services generally fall into two categories. One The other set of utility services is comprised of resource
set of servicestransmission- and distribution-system adequacy and transmission congestion relief.
02 WHAT SERVICES CAN BATTERIES PROVIDE TO THE ELECTRICITY GRID?
UTILITY SERVICES
TABLE 2: UTILITY SERVICES
Instead of investing in new natural gas combustion turbines to meet generation requirements during
peak electricity-consumption hours, grid operators and utilities can pay for other assets, including
Resource Adequacy
energy storage, to incrementally defer or reduce the need for new generation capacity and minimize
the risk of overinvestment in that area.
UTILITY SERVICES
Delaying, reducing the size of, or entirely avoiding utility investments in distribution system upgrades
Distribution Deferral
necessary to meet projected load growth on specific regions of the grid.
ISOs charge utilities to use congested transmission corridors during certain times of the day. Assets
Transmission
including energy storage can be deployed downstream of congested transmission corridors to
Congestion Relief
discharge during congested periods and minimize congestion in the transmission system.
Delaying, reducing the size of, or entirely avoiding utility investments in transmission system
Transmission Deferral
upgrades necessary to meet projected load growth on specific regions of the grid.
CUSTOMER SERVICES on-site consumption of distributed solar photovoltaics

Customer services like bill management provide (PV), generates savings by optimizing load against a
direct benefits to end users. Accordingly, the value time-of-use rate, or reduces a buildings peak demand
created by these services can only be captured Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited
Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve when charge, it is effectively smoothing the load profile of
storage is deployed behind the meter. Table 3 defines the building where it is deployed. A smoother, less
these customer-facing services. peaky load profile is much easier and less costly to
match up with the output of centralized generating
these customer-facing services. peaky load profile is much easier and less costly to
match up with the output of centralized generating
The monetary value of these services flows directly to assets. This is why price signals such as peak demand
behind-the-meter customers. However, the provision charges and time-of-use pricing exist: to incent end
CUSTOMER SERVICES
of these services creates benefits for ISOs/RTOs and
utilities, as well. When energy storage either maximizes
users to alter their metered load profile in a way that
lowers overall system production costs.
TABLE 3: CUSTOMER SERVICES
By minimizing electricity purchases during peak electricity-consumption hours when time-of-use

Time-of-Use Bill
(TOU) rates are highest and shifting these purchase to periods of lower rates, behind-the-meter
Management
customers can use energy storage systems to reduce their bill.
CUSTOMER SERVICES
Minimizing export of electricity generated by behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems to maximize

Increased PV Self-
the financial benefit of solar PV in areas with utility rate structures that are unfavorable to distributed
Consumption
PV (e.g., non-export tariffs).
In the event of grid failure, energy storage paired with a local generator can provide backup power at
Demand Charge
multiple scales, ranging from second-to-second power quality maintenance for industrial operations
Reduction
to daily backup for residential customers.
In the event of grid failure, energy storage paired with a local generator can provide backup power at
Backup Power multiple scales, ranging from second-to-second power quality maintenance for industrial operations
to daily backup for residential customers.
MOUN
KY
TA
ROC
IN
THE ECONOMICS OF BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE | 16

IN
STIT UTE
Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited
behind the meter, at the distribution level, or at the the electricity system as possible when examining
transmission level. Energy storage deployed at all levels the economics of energy storage and analyze how
on the electricity system can add value to the grid. those economics change depending on where energy
However, customer-sited, behind-the-meter energy storage is deployed on the grid.
FIGURE ES2
BATTERIES CAN PROVIDE
UP TO 13 SERVICES TO THREE
STAKEHOLDER GROUPS
Energy
Backup Power Arbitrage
Spin /
Non-Spin
ES
Increased Reserve
IC
PV Self-
IS
Consumption
RV
O
/R
SE
Frequency
Regulation
T
ER
OS
OM
ERV
CUST
Demand
Service not
Charge
ICES
Reduction possible Voltage
Support
Service not
possible
Time-of-Use Black
Bill Start
Management CENTRALIZED
TRANSMISSION
Distribution Resource DISTRIBUTION

Deferral Adequacy
BEHIND THE METER
Transmission Transmission
Deferral Congestion Relief
DISTRIBUTED
U TI LIT Y S E R V I C E S
MOUN
KY
TA
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IN
THE ECONOMICS OF BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE | 6

IN
STIT UTE
Kendall Co,on Bronk, a developmental psychologist at Claremont Graduate
University, truly nding ones purpose requires four key components:
dedicated commitment,
personal meaningfulness,
goal directedness, and a
vision larger than ones self.

William Damon, the director of the Stanford Center on Adolescence, denes purpose
as
a stable and generalized inten1on to accomplish something that is at the same 1me
meaningful to the self and consequen1al for the world beyond the self.

four categories on their path to purpose: the dreamers, the dabblers, the disengaged,
and the purposeful (each of the categories represen1ng roughly a quarter of the
adolescent popula1on). Extremely purposeful students exhibit high degrees of
persistence, resourcefulness, resilience, and capacity for healthy risk taking.
Ins1tute of Design at Stanford created the below graphic that iden1es three
interrelated factors essen1al to fostering purpose among students: 1) A students skills
and strengths; 2) what the world needs; and 3) what the student loves to do.
DOEs Energy Informa1on Administra1on (EIA)
forecasts that 255 to 482 Gigawa,s (GW) of gas genera1on will be added by 2040an
addi1onal investment of $233 to $442 billion. The combined price tag for these
infrastructure & genera1on investments starts at $546 billion and ranges up to $755 billion.
of economic activity does not bode well for energy use, leading to reduced electric load growth and
lower levels of industrial production that adversely affect natural gas consumption for power generation
and in the petrochemical sector. As a result, total gas use in the low-growth case is about 15 Bcfd, or
about 15 Interstate Natural Gas Associa1on of America asserts that
percent lower than the base case. Gas use rises to roughly 91 Bcfd by 2035, versus
more than $313 billion in mid-stream gas infrastructure (e.g., gas pipelines)
approximately 106 Bcfd in the base case.10 Although not shown in the figure below, liquids market
will be needed by 2035.
growth also is significantly lower in this low-growth case, and U.S. refinery runs are down modestly
compared with the base case levels.
U.S. and Canadian Gas Consumption (Average Annual Bcfd)
10
Interstate Natural Gas Associa1on of America asserts that
more than $313 billion in mid-stream gas infrastructure (e.g., gas pipelines)
will be needed by 2035.
U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Production (Average Annual Bcfd)
As is the case for gas production, the growth of oil and NGL production is adversely affected by the
h,p://movingforward.discoursemedia.org/cost-of-commute-calculator-data/
Biomimicry Inspired an1reec1ve glass
Deloi,e highest BREEM score Amsterdam
EEI U1lity Death Spirl
Gartner Hypercycle 2014 emerging technology
Gartner Hypercycle 2015 emerging technology
Gerrard Hassan wind turbine size increases
AWEA
WIND AND WATER POWER TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE
2014 Wind Technologies Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger

Market Report: Summary Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
August 2015
1
The U.S. Placed 3rd in Annual Wind Power
Capacity Additions in 2014
Annual Capacity Cumulative Capacity
(2014, MW) (end of 2014, MW)
China 23,300 China 114,760
Germany 5,119 United States 65,877
United States 4,854 Germany 39,223
Brazil 2,783 India 22,904
India 2,315 Spain 22,665
Canada 1,871 United Kingdom 12,413
United Kingdom 1,467 Canada 9,684
Sweden 1,050 France 9,170
France 1,042 Italy 8,556
Turkey 804 Brazil 6,652
Rest of World 6,625 Rest of World 60,208
TOTAL 51,230 TOTAL 372,112
Source: Navigant; AWEA project database for U.S. capacity
Global wind additions reached a new high in 2014

U.S. remains a distant second to China in cumulative capacity
U.S. led the world in wind energy production in 2014
8
U.S. Lagging Other Countries in Wind As a
Percentage of Electricity Consumption
Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind
power capacity at the end of 2014
9
Geographic Spread of Wind Projects in the
United States Is Reasonably Broad
Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2014
10
Texas Installed the Most Capacity in 2014;
9 States Exceed 12% Wind Energy
Percentage of
Installed Capacity (MW)
In-State Generation
Annual (2014) Cumulative (end of 2014) Actual (2014)* Texas has more than twice
Texas 1,811 Texas 14,098 Iowa 28.5%
Oklahoma 648 California 5,917 South Dakota 25.3% as much wind capacity as
Iowa 511 Iowa 5,688 Kansas 21.7%
Michigan 368 Oklahoma 3,782 Idaho 18.3% any other state
Nebraska 277 Illinois 3,568 North Dakota 17.6%
23 states had >500 MW of

Washington 267 Oregon 3,153 Oklahoma 16.9%
Colorado 261 Washington 3,075 Minnesota 15.9%
capacity at end of 2014

North Dakota 205 Minnesota 3,035 Colorado 13.6%
Indiana 201 Kansas 2,967 Oregon 12.7%
(16 > 1 GW, 10 > 2 GW)

California 107 Colorado 2,593 Texas 9.0%
Minnesota 48 North Dakota 1,886 Wyoming 8.9%
Maryland 40 New York 1,748 Maine 8.3%
New Mexico
New York
35
26
Indiana
Michigan
1,745
1,531
New Mexico
California
7.0%
7.0%
2 states have >25% of
Montana 20 Wyoming 1,410 Nebraska 6.9% total in-state generation
from wind (9 states > 12%)
South Dakota 20 Pennsylvania 1,340 Montana 6.5%
Maine 9 Idaho 973 Washington 6.3%
Ohio 0.9 New Mexico 812 Hawaii 5.9%
Massachusetts 0.6 Nebraska 812 Illinois 5.0%
South Dakota 803 Vermont 4.4%
Rest of U.S. 0 Rest of U.S. 4,941 Rest of U.S. 0.9%
TOTAL 4,854 TOTAL 65,877 TOTAL 4.4%
* Based on 2014 wind and total generation by state from EIAs Electric Power Monthly.
11
Interconnection Queues Demonstrate that
a Substantial Amount of Wind Is Under
Consideration
Wind represented 30% of capacity in sampled 35 queues

But absolute amount of wind (and coal & nuclear) in
sampled queues has declined in recent years whereas
natural gas and solar capacity has increased
Not all of this

capacity will
be built .
AWEA reports 13.6 GW of capacity under construction after 1Q2015

13
Larger Amounts of Wind Planned for
Texas, Midwest, Southwest Power Pool,
PJM, and Northwest
14 Not all of this capacity will be built .

Imports of Wind Equipment Are Sizable;
Exports Continue to Grow Slowly
7 US Imports: U.S. is a net importer
Exports of Wind-Powered
Generating Sets
Other wind-related equipment (est.)
Wind generators (2012-2014)
of wind equipment
6
Wind blades and hubs (2012-2014)
5
Towers (estimated through 2010)
Wind-powered generating sets
Exports of wind-
powered generating
Billion 2014$US
4
sets increased
3 modestly in 2014 to
2
$488 billion; no ability
to track other wind-
1 specific exports, but
0 total tower exports
2006
2457 MW
2007
5253 MW
2008 2009 2010
8362 MW 10005 MW 5216 MW
2011 2012 2013
6820 MW 13131 MW 1087 MW
2014
4854 MW equalled $116 million
Figure only includes tracked trade categories; misses other wind-related imports
See full report for the assumptions used to generate this figure
20
The Project Finance Environment
Remained Strong in 2014
12%
10%
Tax Equity Yield (after-tax)
8%
15-Year Debt Interest Rate (pre-tax)
6%
4%
15-Year Debt Interest Rate (after-tax)

2%
0%
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Project sponsors raised $5.8 billion of tax equity (largest single-year

amount on record) and $2.7 billion of debt in 2014
Tax equity yields held steady, while debt interest rates trended lower
24
Long-Term Contracted Sales to Utilities
Remained the Most Common Off-Take
Arrangement, but Merchant Projects
Continued to Expand, at Least in Texas
100% 100% 2014 Capacity by
Off-Take Category
% of Cumulative Installed Capacity
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
IOU:
60% 60% 2,497 MW
Merchant: (51%)
50% 50%
1,613 MW
40% On-Site 40% (33%)
30% Power Marketer 30%

Merchant/Quasi-Merchant POU:
20% 20% 720 MW
POU (15%)
10% 10% On-Site:
IOU
23 MW
0% 0% (0.5%)
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Recently announced wind purchases of ~2 GW from technology companies

and business giants to hospitals, universities, and government agencies
26
Turbine Nameplate Capacity, Hub Height,
and Rotor Diameter Have All Increased
Significantly Over the Long Term
28
Even Controlling for These Factors,
Average Capacity Factors for Projects
Built After 2005 Have Been Stagnant,
Averaging 32% to 35% Nationwide
60% Weighted Average (by project vintage)
2014 Capacity Factor (by project vintage)
Individual Project (by project vintage)

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Sample includes 591 projects totaling 58.5 GW
0%
Vintage: 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
# projects: 25 27 38 28 20 37 79 96 48 68 117 8
# MW: 921 1,760 1,988 3,652 1,708 5,282 8,498 9,578 4,733 5,917 13,533 969
35
Controlling for Wind Resource Quality and
Commercial Operation Date Demonstrates
Impact of Turbine Evolution
Weighted-Avg. Realized Capacity Factor in 2014
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
Highest Wind Resource Quality
15%
Higher Wind Resource Quality
10% Medium Wind Resource Quality
5% Lower Wind Resource Quality
0%
1998-992000-012002-032004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Project Vintage
Notwithstanding build-out of lower-quality wind resource sites, turbine design changes

are driving capacity factors higher for projects located in given wind resource regimes
38
Regional Variations in Capacity Factors
Reflect the Strength of the Wind Resource
and Adoption of New Turbine Technology
60% Weighted Average (by region)
Weighted Average (total U.S.)
50%
Individual Project (by region)
2014 Capacity Factor
40%
30%
20%
10%
Sample includes 124 projects built in 2012-13 and totaling 14.4 GW
0%
West Northeast Great Lakes Interior
32 projects 15 projects 18 projects 59 projects
3,938 MW 1,147 MW 2,109 MW 7,253 MW
39
Wind PPA Prices Have Reached All-Time
Lows, Dominated by Interior Region
Interior (20,611 MW, 212 contracts)
$120
West (7,124 MW, 72 contracts)
Levelized PPA Price (2014 $/MWh)
Great Lakes (3,620 MW, 48 contracts)

$100 Northeast (1,018 MW, 25 contracts)
150 MW 50 MW
Southeast (268 MW, 6 contracts)
$80
$60
$40
$20
75 MW
$0
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
PPA Execution Date
49
A Smoother Look at the Time Trend Shows
Steep Decline in Pricing Since 2009;
Especially Low Pricing in Interior Region
$100
Average Levelized PPA Price (Real 2014 $/MWh)
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
Nationwide Interior
$20
Great Lakes West
$10 Northeast
$0
PPA Year: 1996-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Contracts: 10 17 24 30 30 26 39 49 48 42 14 26 13
MW: 553 1,249 1,382 2,190 2,311 1,781 3,465 4,048 4,642 4,572 985 3,674 1,768
50
Relative Competitiveness of Wind Power
Improved in 2014: Comparison to
Wholesale Electricity Prices
100
Wind project sample includes projects
90 with PPAs signed from 2003-2014
80
70
2014 $/MWh
60
50
40
30
20
Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (by calendar year)
10
Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price (by year of PPA execution)
0
PPA year: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Contracts: 9 13 17 30 26 39 49 48 42 14 26 13
MW: 570 547 1,643 2,311 1,781 3,465 4,048 4,642 4,572 985 3,674 1,768
Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S.
51 Price comparison shown here is far from perfect see full report for caveats
Comparison Between Wholesale Prices
and Wind PPA Prices Varies by Region
100 Average 2014 Wholesale Power Price Range Notes: Wind PPAs
90 Individual Project Levelized Wind PPA Price
included are those
80 Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price
signed from 2012-
70
2014 $/MWh
60
2014. Within a
50 region there are a
40 range of wholesale
30 prices because
20 multiple price hubs
10
Wind project sample includes projects with PPAs signed in 2012-2014
exist in each area;
0
Interior Great Lakes Northeast West Total US price comparison
37 projects 10 projects 1 project 5 projects 53 projects shown here is far
5,275 MW 755 MW 69 MW 329 MW 6,427 MW
from perfect see
Wind PPA prices most competitive with wholesale full report for
prices in the Interior region caveats
52
Recent Wind Prices Are Hard to Beat:
Competitive with Expected Future Cost of
Burning Fuel in Natural Gas Plants
100
Range of AEO15 gas price projections
90 AEO15 reference case gas price projection
80 Wind 2012 PPA execution (985 MW, 14 contracts)
70 Wind 2013 PPA execution (3,674 MW, 26 contracts)
2014 $/MWh
Wind 2014 PPA execution (1,768 MW, 13 contracts)

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Price comparison shown here is far from perfect see full report for caveats
53
State Policies Help Direct the Location
and Amount of Wind Development, but
Current Policies Cannot Support
Continued Growth at Recent Levels
WA: 15% by 2020
OR: 25% by 2025
MT: 15% by 2015 MN: 26.5% by 2025
Xcel: 31.5% by 2020
NY: 30% by 2015
PA: 8.5% by 2020
ME: 40% by 2017
NH: 24.8% by 2025
29 states and D.C.
(large utilities)
5-10% by 2025
WI: 10% by 2015 MI: 10% by 2015
OH: 12.5% by 2026
VT: 75% by 2032
MA: 11.1% by 2009 have mandatory
(smaller utilities) +1%/yr
RI: 16% by 2019
CT: 23% by 2020
RPS programs
DE: 25% by 2025
IA: 105 MW by 1999
NJ: 22.5% by 2020
DC: 20% by 2020
State RPS can
NV: 25% by 2025 IL: 25% by 2025
support ~4-5 GW/yr
CA: 33% by 2020 MD: 20% by 2022
MO: 15% by 2021 NC: 12.5% by 2021
(IOUs), 10% by 2018
of renewable energy
CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)
20% by 2020 (co-ops) (co-ops and munis)
10% by 2020 (munis)
additions on average
AZ: 15% by 2025
NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops)
through 2025 (less
for wind specifically)
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
HI: 100% by 2045
Source: Berkeley Lab
57
Solid Progress on Overcoming
Transmission Barriers Continued
Over 2,000 circuit miles of new transmission built in 2014; lower than 2013
but consistent with 2009-2012
22,000 additional circuit miles proposed by March 2017, with half having a
high probability of completion
AWEA has identified 18 near-term transmission projects that if all were
completed could carry 55-60 GW of additional wind power capacity
FERC continued to
implement Order 1000,
requiring public utility
transmission providers to
improve planning
processes and determine a
cost allocation
methodology for new
transmission investments
58
System Operators Are Implementing
Methods to Accommodate Increased APS (2007)
Penetrations of Wind $20
$18
Avista (2007)
BPA (2009) [a]
BPA (2011) [a]
BPA (2013)
CA RPS (2006) [b]
$16 ERCOT (2012)
Integrating wind
EWITS (2010)
Idaho Power (2007)
Integration Cost ($/MWh)

$14
Idaho Power (2012)
energy into
MN-MISO (2006) [c]
$12 Nebraska (2010)
NorthWestern (2012)
power systems $10 Pacificorp (2005)

Pacificorp (2007)
PacifiCorp (2010)
is manageable,
$8
PacifiCorp (2012)
PacifCorp (2014)
$6 Portland GE (2011)
but not free of $4

Portland GE (2013)
Puget Sound Energy (2007)
SPP-SERC (2011)
additional costs $2
We Energies (2003)
Xcel-MNDOC (2004)
Xcel-PSCo (2006)
$0 Xcel-PSCo (2008)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Xcel-PSCo (2011) [d]
Wind Penetration (Capacity Basis) Xcel-UWIG (2003)
Notes: Because methods vary and a consistent set of operational impacts has not been
included in each study, results from the different analyses of integration costs are not fully
comparable. There has been some recent literature questioning the methods used to estimate
wind integration costs and the ability to disentangle those costs explicitly, while also highlighting
the fact that other generating options also impose integration challenges and costs.
59
Sizable Wind Additions Anticipated for
2015 & 2016; Downturn and Increased
Uncertainty in 2017 and Beyond
Wind additions in 2014 and anticipated additions from 2017-2020 fall

below the deployment trajectory analyzed in DOEs Wind Vision report
61
Current Low Prices for Wind, Future
Technological Advancement and New EPA
Regulations May Support Higher Growth
in Future, but Headwinds Include
Lack of clarity about fate of federal tax incentives
Continued low natural gas and wholesale electricity prices
Modest electricity demand growth
Limited near-term demand from state RPS policies
Inadequate transmission infrastructure in some areas
Growing competition from solar in some regions
62
Utility-Scale Solar 2014
An Empirical Analysis of
Project Cost, Performance,
and Pricing Trends in the
United States
Mark Bolinger & Joachim Seel

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
September 30th 2015
This research was supported by funding from the

U.S. Department of Energys SunShot Initiative.
Total utility-scale solar project universe
is dominated by PV projects
PV project population: 192 projects totaling 6,201 MWAC
This populations characteristics are described in the next few slides
CPV project population: 2 projects totaling 35 MWAC

Both almost 4 years old, use Amonix high-concentration technology, are sited in
similarly excellent solar resource areas, and have inverter loading ratios of ~1.17
CSP project population: 16 projects totaling 1,773 MWAC

After nearly 400 MWAC built in the late-1980s (and early-1990s), no new CSP was
built in the U.S. until 2007 (68 MWAC), 2010 (75 MWAC), and 2013-2015 (1,237 MWAC)
Prior to the large 2013-15 build-out, all utility-scale CSP projects in the U.S. used
parabolic trough collectors
The five 2013-2015 projects include 3 parabolic troughs (one with 6 hours of storage)
totaling 750 MWAC (net) and two power tower projects (one with 10 hours of
storage) totaling 487 MWAC (net)
3
Historically heavy concentration in the Southwest
and mid-Atlantic, but now spreading to Southeast
Primarily fixed-tilt
c-Si projects in the
East
Tracking (c-Si and,

increasingly, thin-
film) is more
common in the
Southwest
Total MW share:
1) CA 59%
2) AZ 17%
3) NV 5%
4) NM 4%
5) TX 3%
4
Median installed price of PV has fallen steadily, by more
than 50%, to around $3/WAC ($2.3/WDC) in 2014
10 Capacity-Weighted Average (DC)
9 Median (DC)
Individual Projects (DC)
Installed Price (2014 $/W)
8 Capacity-Weighted Average (AC)

7 Median (AC)
Individual Projects (AC) 230 MW
6
350 MW
5
155 MW
586 MW
4
0
2007-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
n=5 (75 MW-AC) n=10 (175 MW-AC) n=29 (428 MW-AC) n=38 (875 MW-AC) n=33 (1,269 MW-AC) n=55 (3,052 MW-AC)
Installation Year
Installed prices are shown here in both DC and AC terms, but because AC is more relevant to the utility
sector, all metrics used in the rest of this slide deck are expressed solely in AC terms
The lowest 20th percentile fell from $3.2/WAC in 2013 to $2.3/WAC in 2014
Capacity-weighted average prices were pushed higher in 2014 by several very large projects that had
been under construction for several years (but only entered our sample in 2014, once complete)
This sample is backward-looking and may not reflect the price of projects built in 2015/2016
8
Installed price decline led primarily by c-Si
9
Fixed-Tilt c-Si Tracking c-Si
8
Fixed-Tilt Thin-Film Tracking Thin-Film
Installed Price (2014 $/WAC)
7 CPV All PV
2
Markers represent medians, with 20th and 80th percentiles.
1
0
2007-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
n=5 (75 MW-AC) n=10 (175 MW-AC) n=29 (428 MW-AC) n=38 (875 MW-AC) n=33 (1,269 MW-AC) n=55 (3,052 MW-AC)
Installation Year
Pricing has converged among the various mounting/module configurations over time
Not surprisingly, tracking appears to be slightly more expensive than fixed-tilt (at least for c-Si)
Large 80/20 range of fixed-tilt thin-film in 2014 reflects several mega-projects with high prices
The two CPV projects built in 2011 and 2012 were priced similar to PV at the time
9
Bottom-up modeled installed prices
are lower than our empirical data
$2.5 2.37 2.25
System Cost or Price (2014 $/W-DC)
0.14
1.99 1.99
$2.0 0.46 1.88
0.82 0.33 0.36
0.36
$1.5 0.52 0.34
0.59 0.26
0.58 0.43 0.48 0.37
$1.0
0.27
0.18 0.13 0.13 0.18
0.11
$0.5
0.66 0.71 0.71 0.66 0.72
$0.0
LBNL 2014 25 MW-DC Single- NREL 2014 20 MW-DC Single- NREL 2014 100 MW-DC Single- BNEF Q4 2014 Utility Project in GTM H2 2014 10 MW-DC
Axis Tracking Project Price in Axis Tracking Project Cost in Axis Tracking Project Cost (U.S. California (incl. Developer Single-Axis Tracking Project
Southwest Southwest with Union Labor National Average) Margins) Cost in California (excl.
Development)
Modules Inverter Tracker, Structural BOS, Interconnection, Transmission Design, EPC, Labor, PII Other
Prices presented here in DC terms, to be consistent with how presented by NREL, BNEF, GTM
Empirical LBNL project (far left) is most-expensive at $2.37/WDC, despite reporting among the lowest module costs
($0.66/WDC)
Largest discrepancy is in EPC category perhaps reflecting forward-looking modeling vs. backward-looking empirical
data (sample LBNL project achieved commercial operation in 2014)
There are also discrepancies in terms of what costs are captured by the various modeled estimates relative to the
empirical data (e.g., development costs, financing costs)
There is fairly substantial variation even among the various bottom-up modeled estimates
11
Not much movement in the installed price of CSP
Small sample of 6 projects (4 built in 2013-14) makes it hard to identify trends

That said, there does not appear to be much of a trend CSP prices seem to be moving
sideways (in contrast to PVs downward trend)
To be fair, newest projects are much larger, and include storage and/or new technology
(power tower) in some cases, making comparisons difficult
12
27.5% average sample-wide PV net capacity factor,
but with large project-level range (from 15%-35%)
35% Capacity-Weighted Average (all projects)
Individual Project (c-Si)
Cumulative Net Capacity Factor
30%
Individual Project (thin-film)
25%
20%
15%
Sample includes 128 projects totaling 3,201 MWAC that came online from 2007-2013
10%
14 projects
10 projects
11 projects
13 projects
15 projects
2 projects
3 projects
4 projects
5 projects
9 projects
4 projects
6 projects
6 projects
8 projects
9 projects
8 projects
ILR1.275 377 MW
1 project
ILR<1.2 156 MW
1.2-1.275 100 MW
1.2-1.275 492 MW
ILR1.275 150 MW
1.2-1.275 465 MW
ILR1.275 125 MW
ILR<1.2 122 MW
ILR1.275 648 MW
ILR<1.2 182 MW
ILR<1.2 19 MW
1.2-1.275 89 MW
1.2-1.275 36 MW
ILR<1.2 59 MW
ILR<1.2 67 MW
ILR1.275 89 MW
1.2-1.275 26 MW
5%
0% ILR1.275
Fixed-Tilt Tracking Fixed-Tilt Tracking Fixed-Tilt Tracking

Solar resource of <4.75 kWh/m2/day Solar resource of 4.75-5.5 kWh/m2/day Solar resource of 5.5 kWh/m2/day
Project-level variation in PV capacity factor is driven by:

Solar Resource (GHI): Highest resource bin has ~8% higher capacity factor than lowest
Tracking: Adds ~4% to capacity factor on average across all three resource bins
Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR): Highest ILR bins have ~4% higher capacity factor than lowest
Module type: No discernible pattern between c-Si and thin-film
The two CPV projects (see green stars) have underperformed relative to similarly configured PV projects
14
Levelized PPA prices have fallen by
more than two-thirds since 2009
Levelized PPA Price (Real 2014 $/MWh)
300 PV (7,234 MW, 100 contracts)

32 MW
CPV (35 MW, 2 contracts) PPA prices are levelized over
250
550 MW
Mix of PV/CPV (7 MW, 1 contract) the full term of the contract,
200 CSP (1,342 MW, 5 contracts)
after accounting for any
150
210
escalation rates and/or
100
MW
time-of-delivery factors
50
Strong/steady downward
150 MW
0 price trend since 2006
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
PPA Execution Date
Smaller projects (e.g., 20
300
MW) no less competitive
Levelized PPA Price (Real 2014 $/MWh)
Generation-Weighted Average
250
Individual Contract CPV and CSP largely
200 competitive at the time, but
150
little visibility recently
100
>75% of the sample is
currently operational
50
Broadening of the market in
0
PPA Year: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 (AR, AL, FL)
Contracts: 1 1 3 16 29 12 10 15 9 12
MW: 7 5 770 1,738 1,956 1,457 861 492 449 885
17
PV PPA prices generally decline over time in real
dollar terms, in contrast to fuel cost projections
Gen-Weighted Average PPA Price (2014 $/MWh)
250
2007
2006 (7 MW, 1 PPA) ~70% of PV sample has flat
200
(5 MW, 1 PPA) annual PPA pricing (in nominal
2009 (956 MW, 13 PPAs)
2008 (770 MW, 3 PPAs)
dollars), while the rest
150 escalate at low rates
2010 (1,676 MW, 28 PPAs)
100
Thus, average PPA prices
2013 (492 MW, 15 PPAs) 2011 (1,177 MW, 11 PPAs) decline over time in real
2012 (861 MW, 10 PPAs)
50 2014 (449 MW, 9 PPAs)
dollar terms (top graph)
2015 (885 MW, 12 PPAs)
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Bottom graph compares 2014-
80 and 2015-vintage PPA prices
70 to range of gas price
60 projections from AEO 2015,
2014 $/MWh
50 showing that
40
PV can compete with even
30
Overall range of AEO 2015 gas price projections (converted to $/MWh terms) just the fuel costs of gas-fired
20 AEO 2015 reference case gas price projection (converted to $/MWh terms)
10 Average price over time among sample of PV PPAs signed in 2014 (9 contracts, 449 MW)
generation, and also provides
0
Average price over time among sample of PV PPAs signed in 2015 (12 contracts, 885 MW) a long-term hedge against
potential fuel cost increases
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
18
Apparent deep market at these low PPA prices
Austin Energy:
600 MW solar RFP received 7,976 MW response (33 bidders, 149 proposals)
Almost 1,300 MW were offered at levelized prices of $45/MWh or less.
Southwestern Public Service:

200 MW solar RFP received 5,250 MW response
~3,000 MW priced at $40-50/MWh, ~1,800 MW priced at $50-60/MWh (levelized)
NV Energy:
200 MW renewable RFP received 2,537 MW response (90% of which was PV)
Two 100 MW winners ~$40/MWh levelized; others reportedly at similar prices
Idaho Power and Rocky Mountain Power:

These two Idaho and Utah utilities have been inundated with >2,000 MW of requests for
avoided cost PURPA contracts at prices of ~$50-70/MWh
Across the South:

Recently announced PPAs in Alabama ($61/MWh), Arkansas (~$50/MWh), Georgia
(~$65/MWh), Florida ($70/MWh)
19
Looking ahead: utility-scale pipeline has grown, driven by an
expanding market outside of the Southwest
20 Entered queue in 2014 Total in queue at end of 2014 Graphs show solar and other capacity in 35
interconnection queues across the US:
150
Nameplate Capacity (GW)

Nameplate Solar Capacity (GW)
Inset compares solar to other resources

15 Main graph shows location of solar
100
10 50
0
Gas Wind Solar Nuclear Coal Other
5
0
California Southwest Texas Southeast Central Northeast Northwest
(NV, AZ, UT, CO, NM)
44.6 GW of solar was in the queues at the end of 2014 (up from 39.5 GW at end of 2013): more than 5
times the installed solar capacity in our project population at the end of 2014
Solar was in third place in the queues, behind natural gas and wind
Expanding market: Texas and Southeast had more new entrants than California or Southwest in 2014;
other three regions saw an unprecedented influx of new solar capacity in 2014 as well
Not all of this capacity will be built! (but much of what is will likely be built prior to 2017)
21
HYDROGEN FUEL CELL mari1me use
Ligh1ng quality factors
Nature, global
clusters
networks
Nature 2015
Nature 2015
NZE neighborhood design
onion-like nanopar1cle converts infrared energy to electricity, 2015
pierre-jean cherret con1nuous energy mgnt
pierre-jean cherret home area network
In the next three years, China plans to shu,er 4,300 coal mines,
eliminate outdated produc1on capacity of 700 million tons and relocate
1 million employees, according to the report. The central government
has earmarked CNY 30 billion ($4.57 billion) for the reloca1on.

In the past ve years, China has cut some 560 million tons of coal
produc1on capacity and closed 7,250 coal mines, according to the
Na1onal Coal Associa1on.

China had approximately 11,000 coal mines at the end of 2015 with a
total capacity of 5.7 billion tons. Of these, around 1,000 had annual
capacity of more than 1.2 million tons some 400 more than in 2010.

The country is nevertheless leading the way in embracing green energy.
China was the biggest investor in clean energy last year, channeling
$110.5 billion into the sector and accoun1ng for 17% of the total global
clean energy investment.

h,p://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/china-to-slash-
coal-produc1on-amidst-falling-demand_100022904/#ixzz3y1sPppxi
100 PERCENT SOLAR/WIND/EFF
100
Ready for Ready for

Learning Change
Ready for Ready for

0
100
Ready for Ready for
Learning Change
Ready for Ready for

0
POLITICAL POWER corrup0on
CORPORATE GREED Corrup0on
MEDIA LYING Corrup0on
100
Ready for Ready for
Learning Change
Ready for Ready for

0
CITIZEN DEMOCRACY
VS
PLUTOCRATIC OLIGARCHY
Deriving Energy Services varying footprint sizes
10,000 ft2 per capita required

to grow meat-centered
American annual diet
1000 ft2 per capita required to

grow vegetarian-centered
American annual diet
1 gallon of gasoline required 4

hectares (430,373 ft2)
of fossilized sunlight to produce
10,000 ft2 per capita

required to grow meat-
centered American
annual diet
1000 ft2 per capita required to grow
vegetarian-centered American annual diet
Hectare = 2.47 acres Acre = 43,560 ft2

Bicycle
2500 miles per gallon (mpg)
(in kilocalories of food)
25 mpg the average fuel

efficiency new global car.
Construc0on Tools Disrup0on Tools

Michael P Totten RUPTURES Presentation Colorado Yale Assoc. 287 Slides 01-28-2016

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COST to LIVES JUST IN USA:

62,000 U.S. air pollu0on premature

$600 Billion per year (2013 dollars) in

Dynamic RAM Memory Half Pitch Feature Size 5.4 years

Wireless smart Trillion$ Valuable NANO technology

34 million free usable articles in 288 languages

15,000 volumes equivalent to Encyclopedia

100 million hours to create Wikipedia over the

There are thousands of open source COINs

Ray Kurzweil, Kurzweilai.net, presentation at Google, 2009

Human & Knowledge Social, Civic & Intelligence

beyond zero net

The Next Industrial Revolution

Oil SOLAR PHOTONS

ANNUAL Solar Energy

Source: Berkeley Lab

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS Energy System by 2050

Onshore wind Hydroelectric

Offshore wind Tidal turbines

Number of jobs where a person

Annual energy cost savings per person in 2050: $161

VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG

FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj

The Solu1ons Project, h,p://thesolu1onsproject.org/infographic/#ca

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries,

Nature Climate Change.

Although improvements in wind and solar

Since the sun is shining or winds are blowing

Global PV Demand 2004-2020E

Solar Poten0al in kWh/m/yr

Source: Fraunhofer FHI, Energy Payback Time,

h,p://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/22/chinas-wind-energy-capacity-triple-2020-globaldata/, September 22nd, 2015

4.6% of U.S. 2014 power

8 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov

represented cents/kWh in 2009.

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

70 25% year growth

Authoritative Estimate: Developable wind resource is

Expanding from 0.28 TW ~140,000 2-MW

non-wind farm Wind profits

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm non-wind farm

Lab-eciency > 20 % Lab-eciency > 20 % Lab-eciency > 20 %

Crystal structure of CH3NH3PbX3

208,000 buildings Annu

Critigen performed more than 10 Solar Site Assessments for the

SOLAR POWER TOOLS

Apps rapidly evolving and speciating

EarthVisionZ, location intelligent software, http://earthvisionz.com/ ,

RMI Deep-Dive 10xE Learning Tools & Experience

Using web COIN to Scale real-world big-gain results

U.S. Residential Solar PV Financing:

in buildings, fleets, self- utility losses then cut

forming industrial process and then cut IT

Now use 1/2 global power

Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines

$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh

3D Simulation Collaboration Rooms Simulation Wind Turbine Erection w/ Crawler Crane

Infosys BPO awarded 5-Star Rating by B

Bangalore, India - May 13, 2010: Infosys BPO, the busin

Integrated and goal oriented design approach

! LPD of 0.45 W/sqft ! Less than 25 LPD for

Building name:#VJMEJOH Return fan