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Challenges
Arvind Subramanian
Chief Economic Adviser
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 1
Overview
Macroeconomic outlook
Reforms
Challenges
Proximate
Structural
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 2
Falling headline inflation, below medium-term target of 4%
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 3
Easing underlying inflation pressures
Core inflation excludes food and fuel. True core also excludes transport services.
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 4
Inflation/external outlook: Benign
Appreciating nominal exchange rate
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 5
Easing imported inflation: Appreciating nominal exchange rate
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 6
Slowing underlying growth
Year on year, percentage change 11.0 Real GVA growth
10.0
Core GVA
9.0
8.0
6.0
5.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4*
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Core GVA is obtained by subtracting agriculture and government services from aggregate GVA.
*Q4 value is based on CSOs projection.
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 7
Sharp decline in credit growth to industry
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 8
Bright Spot: Exports recovering as world economy
bounces back
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 9
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
INR/USD
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
New Delhi
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
103
107
111
95
99
Slide 10
Further Fiscal Consolidation in 2017-18 at central, state, and public
sector levels
Fiscal Deficit of General Government Borrowings of General Government
(Excluding CPSE and UDAY) (Including CPSE, Excluding UDAY)
7.0 8.0
State Center State Center CPSE
7.0 0.7
6.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1
1.0
6.0
5.0
4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 5.0
4.0 3.3
4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5
4.0 3.3
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6
1.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6
1.0 2.0 2.2
0.0 0.0
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Data for 2015-16 to 2017-18 is for 16 States (accounting forRE
80- BE
CPSE Central Public Sector Enterprises.
RE BE
82% of GDP) for which budgets have been presented.
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 11
Declining Public Sector Investment
General Government Capital Expenditure
7.0 6.6
6.3
6.0
6.0
2.7 2.3
5.0 2.3
Per cent of GDP
4.0
2.0
0.0
2015-16 2016-17 RE 2017-18 BE
Center State CPSE
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 12
Monetary Policy: Increasing real policy (repo) rate
Real interest rate is obtained by subtracting inflation from the nominal repo rate.
True core excludes prices of food, fuel, and transport services.
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 13
Reforms
Transparency in auctioning public assets
GST
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 14
Proximate challenges
Twin balance sheet
About 40% of corporate debt with firms whose interest coverage ratio (ICR) is
less than 1
Fiscal: If Center is Penelope during the day are the states Penelope at
night?
Agricultural loan waivers
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 15
Meta-challenges (Economic Survey, Chapter 2)
Extensive and inefficient redistribution
Chief Economic Adviser New Delhi Friday, April 21, 2017 Slide 16