STA Election Year

Stock Traders Almanac
2016 Market Update
Jeffrey A. Hirsch
CEO: Hirsch Holdings | Editor-in-Chief: Stock Traders Almanac
Investment Committee Consultant: Probabilities Fund Mgmt. LLC
Webcast | Wednesday, February 10, 2016 | 12pm ET
Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
Disclaimer
FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY

This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy, nor sell or a
solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, product, service or investment. The opinions expressed
herein do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate. All
information and opinions expressed herein are current as of publication and are subject to change without
notice.
Investing involves substantial risk. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or
associates makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using this
information. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past
performance may be analyzed in this presentation, past performance should not be considered indicative of
future performance. No one should make any investment decision based on this information without first
consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due
diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. Neither Mr. Hirsch,
nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any representations or warranties
with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the information herein and specifically
disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither Mr.
Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates shall be liable for damages arising
herefrom. No warranty is or may be construed to be created or extended by informational, sales or
promotional materials.

2
50 Years of Research

3
June 1980 Super Boom T-Shirt

4
Wall $treet Week April 1978

5
25 Years on The Street

6
Financial Media Contributor

7
Almanac Investing Philosophy
Those who study market history

are bound to profit from it!
But
Use history as a guide, not gospel.

Sam Stovall

8
Almanac Research Process
50 Years Analyzing, Researching & Testing

Every Stock Market Trend Imaginable
Publish Findings On An Annual Basis
Update Weekly & Monthly
Construct Portfolios

9
Almanac Investing Process
Cycles, Seasonality & Recurring Patterns

Current Trends & Economy
Monetary and Government Policy
Market Internals & Sentiment
Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

10
Major Investment Cycles
War & Peace and the Markets

Secular Bull & Bear Markets
Decennial Cycle 5th Year Best Gains, 12-1
4-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle
2-Term Presidents Different
Seasonal Cycles
Best Six Months November-April
Sectors & Commodities
Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Intraday
January Indicators

11
2015 Forecast Recap
Expected usual 50% move from the midterm low to the pre-election year high to be below
average in the 20-30% range as Fed rates hikes loom large.
Toward the later part of 2015 the economy is prone to slowing as Republicans and
Democrats begin the next battle for the White House.
Expected a high most likely in the first half of 2015 around Dow 19000, S&P 2250 and
NASDAQ 5000, slightly higher or lower than NASDAQs all-time high.
Then a move sideways to slightly higher throughout the last half of 2015 with an ultimate
high near yearend 2015.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Made new highs on all the major averages, clearing 5000 on NASDAQ
But DJIA and S&P 500 came up a bit short of our forecast at 18312 and 2131 respectively.
Dow was up 19% from its 2014 midterm year low to its 2015 high S&P 22%.
The economy is arguably slowing and the battle for the White House raging.
So all in all, not perfect, but not too shabby.

12
2015 1st Losing DJIA Pre-Election Year Since 1939

13
If the market does not rally,
as it should during bullish seasonal periods,
it is a sign that other forces are stronger
and that when the seasonal period ends
those forces will really have their say.
Edson Gould (Stock market analyst,

Findings & Forecasts, 1902-1987)

14
Bad Best Six Months Switching NOT Good

15
Market Expected The Fed To Cut Back To Zero?

16
BETTER WATCH OUT! Santa Claus Should Fail to Call
S&P 500 % Change

Last 5 Days Of Year + 1st 2
New Year Santa Rally Year
1994 0.1% 1.5% Flat
1995 0.2% 34.1%
1996 1.8% 20.3%
1997 0.1% 31.0%
1998 4.0% 26.7%
1999 1.3% 19.5%
2000 4.0% 10.1% Bear
2001 5.7% 13.0%
2002 1.8% 23.4%
2003 1.2% 26.4%
2004 2.4% 9.0%
2005 1.8% 3.0% Flat
2006 0.4% 13.6%
2007 0.0% 3.5%
2008 2.5% 38.5% Bear
2009 7.4% 23.5%
2010 1.4% 12.8%
2011 1.1% 0.003%
2012 1.9% 13.4%
2013 2.0% 29.6%
2014 0.2% 11.4%
2015 3.0% 0.7% Flat
17
January Indicator Trifecta

18
Presidential Term 8th Year | Why 16 Could Be Lousy

19
Dow Theory Sell Signal Transports Not Confirm

20
The Pros & Cons of Forecasting
Pros Cons
Seasonal BSM Fed Tightening
Holding August Support? 1st Down Pre-Election DJIA
Election Year Since 1939
January Has Chance 8th Year of Term
Descending Flag Busted
Tepid Econ
Dow Theory Sell
Dec Low Violated
No Santa
NDR Bear
China, Oil, Iran, BRICs, etc.
21
Current Sector ETFs

22
Small CapStock Portfolio

23
Mid Caps & Large Caps

24
Seasonal Support for a Tradable Crude Oil Bottom

25
2016 Outlook
& Forecast
26
Four Horsemen of the Economy & Housing
Dow Jones Industrials

Unemployment Rate
Inflation
Consumer Confidence
Existing Home Sales
Housing Starts
New Home Sales
NAHB-HMI

27
Unemployment

28
Inflation

29
Consumer Confidence

30
Existing Home Sales

31
Housing Starts

32
New Home Sales

33
NAHB-Housing Market Index

34
Pulse of the Market

35
Down January Down February

36
February Outlook
Weak Link in Best Six Months

Up Little Better Than 50/50
Marginal Gains Large Caps
Small Caps Better R2K 1.3% But No Jan Effect This Year
Down January = Down February Except Last 3
Expiration Week Spotty Long-term Record,
Week After Has A Clear Negative Bias Losses Past 26 Years
Presidents Day Lone Holiday Weak Day Before And After
Friday Before Exceptionally Treacherous
Declines Persist 3 Trading Days After Since 1980

37
2016 Forecast Less Than Sanguine
2016 STA June 2, 2015, Page 6 Outlook

Election years average DJIA 4.8%,
8th years, average -13.9%, down 5 of the last 6.
So we see two scenarios for 2016:
If Fed is right and energy and commodities decline transitory & prices stabilize, expect average
election year gains in mid-single digits.
If Fed is wrong and oil and commodities suffer further &junk bond scenario unravels we may begin
a mild bear market.
Reassess end January
Next bear market may begin in 2016 or already be underway and could take the
market 20-30% lower into 2017-2018 in the last cyclical, garden-variety bear
market that finally puts an end to this secular bear that began in early 2000.
We do not expect much upside over the next few years in the market.
After next bear market our Super Boom forecast kicks in. Raised the floor on our
initial forecast, but the 500+% move to Dow 38820 by 2025 is still on target.

38
Secular Markets & 500% Gains

39
Next Super Boom
40000 15-Year Projection Dow Jones Industrials 2009-2025
Copyright 2011-2015 Jeffrey A. Hirsch & StockTradersAlmanac.com. All Rights Reserved.
35000
30000 DJIA Up 500% 2009-2025
25000
US Withdraws Inflation
from Afghanistan Levels Off
20000
15000
Actual DJIA 2009-8/31/2015

April 2011 Forecast
10000 Jan 2014 Updated Forecast
Jul 2014 Updated Forecast
Mar 2015 Updated Forecast
Sideways Market Launching Pad While Inflation Rises Super Boom
Begins 2017-2018
5000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

40
Leveraging the Probabilities
DIY Stock Traders Almanac

StockTradersAlmanac.com
Bi-weekly Research, Analysis, Signals & Alerts
Stocks & ETFs: Includes Annual Stock Traders Almanac
20% OFF 1-Year | PROMO CODE: MTA16
Probabilities Fund Management
Investment Committee Member
Uses My Research Implementing Strategies
Probabilities Fund Long/Short Equity Fund (PROTX)
2015: Tactical Long/Short US Equity & Sector Rotation
New Probabilities Almanac Trader Stock Fund

41
ProbabilitiesFundManagement.com

42
Upcoming Events
February 16 Dallas Association for Technical Analysis (AfTA)

February 21-23 NYC Traders Expo
February 25 Boston AAII Special Interest Group
March 3-5 World MoneyShow Orlando @ Disney
March 8 Palm Beach Traders
March 9 Southeast FLA IBD Meetup
Available For:
Conference Keynotes
Trading Workshops
Investment Club Meetings
Client Events

43
Thank You!
Jeffrey A. Hirsch is CEO of Hirsch Holdings, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Traders
Almanac & Almanac Investor eNewsletter, and an Investment Committee Member at
Probabilities Fund Management, LLC.
He is the author of Super Boom: Why the Dow Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit
From It and The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles.
The Data-Rich & Data-Driven 50-Year Market Cycle Analysis of Stock Trader's Almanac
is the only investment tool of its kind that helps traders and investors forecast market
trends with accuracy and confidence. Please visit www.stocktradersalmanac.com.
DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY
This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy, nor sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, product, service
or investment. The opinions expressed herein do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate. All information and opinions
expressed herein are current as of publication and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves substantial risk. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective
affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using this information. The advice and strategies
contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in this presentation, past performance should not be considered indicative
of future performance.
No one should make any investment decision based on this information without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own
research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees
and/or associates makes any representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the information herein and specifically disclaim all
warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates shall
be liable for damages arising herefrom. No warranty is or may be construed to be created or extended by informational, sales or promotional materials.

44

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Stock Traders Almanac

2016 Market Update

Webcast | Wednesday, February 10, 2016 | 12pm ET

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Those who study market history

Use history as a guide, not gospel.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

50 Years Analyzing, Researching & Testing

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Cycles, Seasonality & Recurring Patterns

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

War & Peace and the Markets

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Edson Gould (Stock market analyst,

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

S&P 500 % Change

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Dow Jones Industrials

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2015 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Weak Link in Best Six Months

Copyright 2000-2015 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

2016 STA June 2, 2015, Page 6 Outlook

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2011-2015 Jeffrey A. Hirsch & StockTradersAlmanac.com. All Rights Reserved.

30000 DJIA Up 500% 2009-2025

Actual DJIA 2009-8/31/2015

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

DIY Stock Traders Almanac

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

February 16 Dallas Association for Technical Analysis (AfTA)

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

Copyright 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.

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