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2 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 3
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments and Disclaimers This publication has been prepared for general Graphics and photographs are for illustrative Foreword 5
The authors wish to acknowledge the guidance on matters of interest only, and does purposes only and any person depicted is a
support from colleagues within their own not constitute professional advice. You should model, unless otherwise stated.
organisations and the support of their not act upon the information contained in
Part 1: Maritime Autonomy 6
management to develop this report. The this publication without obtaining specific 2017 Lloyds Register Group Ltd, QinetiQ
views expressed in this publication are professional advice. No representation or and University of Southampton. Part 2: Key Challenges 8
those of the individuals of the GMTT2030 warranty (express or implied) is given as
Team and they do not necessarily reflect the to the accuracy or completeness of the First Printed: August 2017 Part 3: Technology 11
views of the Lloyds Register Group Limited information contained in this publication, 6 8
(LR), QinetiQ, University of Southampton. and, to the extent permitted by law, Lloyds ISBN: 978-1-5272-1347-0
Any data presented here are based on Register Group Limited, QinetiQ, University
3.1: Artificial Intelligence 12
simplistic projection and they should be of Southampton do not accept or assume
used with caution. any liability, responsibility or duty of care 3.2: Sensors and Situational Awareness 17
for any consequences of you or anyone else
Special thanks goes to our independent acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the 3.3: Connectivity 20
reviewers for their review and constructive information contained in this publication or
comments on the document: for any decision based on it. This publication
(and any extract from it) must not be copied, 3.4: Cyber Security 24
James Fanshawe CBE
redistributed or placed on any website,
Chairman, MASRWG without prior written consent. 3.5: Energy Management and Sustainability 28 11 32
Dan Hook
Managing Director, ASV All trademarks and copyright materials Part 4: Regulation and Legal Challenges 32
Cdr Peter Pipkin
including data, visuals and illustrations are
Fleet Robotics Officer, Royal Navy acknowledged as they appear in the document.
Part 5: Smart Ships 38
GMTT Team 50
Glossary 51 38 44
Global
Global Marine
Fuel Trends
Global Marine
Fuel Trends
Global Marine Technology Trends 2030
Marine
2030 2030 Global Marine
Technology
Trends Trends 2030
2030
2014 Lloyds Register and University College London.
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Foreword
In 2013 Lloyds Register, QinetiQ and Strathclyde
University published the Global Marine Trends
2030 (GMT2030) report addressing the future
of the marine and maritime sector. Using a
scenario-based approach it presented three
Mechanization Mass production Computer Cyber physical
scenarios that offered differing perspectives on
Steam power Assembly line Automation systems
potential futures:
Water power Electricity
Status Quo
Global Commons
Competing Nations
issues raised in our previous publications to is more likely. Given a Competing Nations
The publication highlighted the potential the fore: context, what will the fourth shipping We stand on the
impact of technology on the future, a theme revolution look like? We will explore this over brink of a technological
taken up in greater detail in the Global The apparent slowing down of the following pages. revolution that will
Marine Technology Trends 2030 (GMTT2030) globalisation caused in part by BREXIT funadamentally alter the
Report produced by Lloyds Register, QinetiQ and the new US Administrations agenda. With the benefit of hindsight, we now see that way we live, work and
and University of Southampton in 2015. Rapid developments in consumer in some areas our perspectives on emergent relate to one another.
GMTT2030 used Horizon Scanning technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence technologies were somewhat conservative.
techniques to look at 18 technologies which (AI), personal and multimedia solutions, In this publication we are focussing on one Klaus Schwab
could influence the future of the Marine and along with widespread digitalisation of such area of technology. Autonomy and Founder and
Maritime Sector in three areas: businesses and economies. autonomous systems these have accelerated Executive Chairman
The start of a new industrial revolution to an extent where it may be possible to deliver World Economic Forum
Commercial shipping (Industry 4.0) that has the potential to credible solutions within the next couple of
Naval disrupt traditional businesses, markets years, enabled by the breadth of capabilities
Ocean space sectors and economies. and adjacent technologies emerging from
commercial and consumer worlds.
In the relatively short period since we As a result of these global changes we
published GMTT2030 a number of believe that the Competing Nations scenario, We offer our perspectives on the future of
developments have brought some of the described in Global Marine Trends 2030, autonomy, its impact and the timescales.
1
http://usblogs.pwc.com/emerging-technology/robotics/
2
http://www.lr.org/en/news-and-insight/news/LR-defines-autonomy-levels-for-ship-design-and-operation.aspx
8 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 9
1
Gordon Baxter, John Rooksby, Yuanzhi Wang, and Ali Khajeh-Hosseini. 2012. The ironies of automation:
still going strong at 30? In Proceedings of the 30th European Conference on Cognitive Ergonomics (ECCE 12),
pp.65-71, ACM: New York, USA. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1145/2448136.2448149.
10 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 11
Part 3: Technology
Introduction
In this section of the report we take a Cyber security looking at the risks and
more in depth look at what we see as the mitigations for the protection of systems in
key emerging technologies driving the cyberspace.
development of autonomous systems. Energy management and sustainability
seen as a limiting factor in the
In GMTT2030 we identified autonomous development and widespread deployment
systems as a rapidly expanding and of autonomous systems.
diversifying area of growth driven by the
consumer sector. They have widespread We think that these are the key technology
application across all aspects of our lives. areas critical to the development of maritime
Increasingly it is permeating areas such as autonomy. This is not a complete list.
automotive, home systems, the financial More important than the development of
sectors and healthcare. In this section we individual technologies, will be our ability to:
specifically look at:
Integrate these technologies to create a
Artificial intelligence a series of closely
maritime Internet of Things (IoT).
entwined technologies which we believe Exploit innovative combinations of
will transform maritime operations and technology to drive new business models
underpin autonomous systems. and applications.
Sensors and situational awareness
Combine new technology with effective
technologies that are fundamental to the ways of working and personal lifestyle
operation of autonomous systems, creating choices.
the required levels of situational awareness
for their safe operation.
Connectivity developments in
connectivity, communications and
information exchange which will provide
a catalyst for the future by enabling the
digitisation of the marine environment.
12 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 13
1
.W. Linden & T. Austin, Artificial Intelligence Primer for 2017, Gartner ID: G00318582, 3 Feb 2017,
A
www.gartner.com/doc/3587258/artificial-intelligence-primer-.
2
Microsoft Cortana, https://www.microsoft.com/en-gb/windows/cortana
3
Bourbon joins Automated Ships Ltd and Konsgberg to deliver ground-breaking autonomous offshore support vessel prototype,
www.bourbonoffshore.com/en/bourbon-joins-automated-ships-ltd-and-kongsberg-deliver-groundbreaking-autonomous-
offshore-support, 11 Jul 2017.
14 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 15
is envisaged that the recent investment drive challenging experts and attracting public people redundant, or become very dangerous
by companies, such as the Bourbon Offshore interest. Major areas of application include leading to the the downfall of the human
Consortium that includes Automated Ships share trading as part of the FinTech revolution. race. None of these situations are helpful,
Ltd and Kongsberg Maritime,3 to develop and none of these extremes are true right
unmanned shipping will be further enabled Whilst AI plays a key role in enabling now. But they are genuine perceptions of the
by placing AI applications on-board. Taking autonomous systems, it is important to note technology.
a ship, oil rig or any other ocean-going that these systems are highly dependent on a
platform, AI has the potential to support number of other technologies. Chief amongst AI is still in its infancy and many of the
both manned and unmanned options. If these are: hurdles it faces are not necessarily related to
manned, conversational AI (through software technology, but to more people-centred issues,
entities such as virtual assistants) will be able Networks and communications enabling such as privacy, trust, regulation and ethics.
to support command decisions by passing connectivity
live, contextualised information to the crew Sensor technologies enabling situational A view of its future
on demand. If unmanned, an AI will have to awareness Many analysts believe that the human race
use compiled information passed through Security technologies enabling cyber is entering a fourth industrial age where AI
machine learning algorithms in order to make security, and is its driving force.4 The McKinsey Global
a decision and then act upon it in a timely Energy management and sustainment Institute5 has suggested that AI is contributing
and correct manner, enabling autonomous to a transformation of society happening
operations. In fact, AI has already been used These areas are covered later in this paper. ten times faster and at 300 times the scale,
in some defence research work and proven or about 3,000 times the impact of the
to be an effective tool in recognising and How it is changing and key industrial revolution.
categorising objects at sea to then allow for challenges
the correct application of the COLREGs and AI is currently experiencing massive growth, The current momentum of AI development in
track planning. fuelled by investment from nearly all the areas including automation will likely cause a
major industry vendors, including Google, growing restlessness in society. Nevertheless,
Critical enablers for AI are the ever increasing Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. This trend history has shown that, just like preceding
computer processing power, connectivity will continue, but those seeking to adopt ages, the technology will augment human
and technologies such as voice and image the technology and master its potential capabilities rather than diminish the need
recognition. It provides the ability for speed opportunities should be wary of its for human involvement. AI offers a huge
of analysis and decision making that far challenges. opportunity to all sectors of society, not least
surpasses that of people. Natural language the maritime sector, which will benefit from
query and answer systems such as IBMs People often regard AI as the silver bullet being able to conduct its business faster,
Watson continually improve and advance, that will solve all of their problems, make cheaper, and more efficiently.
4
J . Aswani, The Fourth Industrial Age, Artificial Intelligence and Enterprise Class Drones, 3 May 2017,
http://kespry.com/blog/the-fourth-industrial-age-artificial-intelligence-and-enterprise-class-drones.
5
R. Dobbs et al., The four global forces breaking all the trends, McKinsey Global Institute, April 2015,
www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-four-global-forces-breaking-all-the-trends.
16 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 17
1
http://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/innovation-in-autonomous-systems
18 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 19
Investment in non-consumer maritime Data quality and accuracy incorrectly A view of the future
sensors, such as radars and dynamic generated, processed or fused data will Challenges of Watchkeeping Sensors will continue to develop. In the near
positioning systems (computer-controlled lead to inaccurate or low fidelity situational There is a considerable challenge in creating future, they will have the range and resolution
systems that automatically maintain a vessels awareness, compromising the decisions and an equivalent electronic watch. Recent required to automate key roles and tasks
position and heading), has been significant actions taken by an autonomous system. research (MUNIN project2) indicates that current on-board vessels, e.g. watchkeeping. The
and supports the rapid development of Connectivity unmanned systems, sensors may not have the have the range and market for small sensors to fit on small vessels
maritime autonomous systems. Wide uptake particularly those collecting scientific data, resolution required to meet the requirements is growing rapidly. This will continue the drive
and use, means that these navigation collect an immense amount of data. High for watchkeeping as defined by Collision to improve cost effective monitoring and
technologies are relatively mature, but connectivity costs and poor bandwidth Regulations (COLREGs) and the Standards for the variety of sensors will increase. The use
exploitation of consumer tech is driving makes it difficult to remotely confirm that Training and Certification of Watchkeepers of unmanned systems will expand, enabling winning discovery that lasers can be used to sensor, inspired by the human visual system,
further development. Maritime is also sensor data is of the quality required for (STCW). Currently a watchkeeper with binoculars us to gather more data about our marine cool atoms to within fractions of a degree of is being developed to provide artificial vision
benefiting from the development of design safe/effective operations. effectively makes up the shortfall in the sensors. environment than ever before. absolute zero. In this frozen state atoms are for autonomous systems at a fraction of the
of low-power sensor equipment introduced Processing most navigational sensor extremely sensitive to the Earths magnetic current energy costs of existing technology.7
from consumer portable electronics markets. systems are designed for use by people, Existing regulations assume that certain There are interesting developments that are and gravitational field, and provide a type
who manually process and fuse data roles and activities are performed by crew transforming sensor technology. An emerging of inertial dead reckoning navigation 1000 In summary, there are exciting advances
Autonomous systems can now position (e.g. radar operators know to ignore on-board the vessel, for example performing area is biosensing, where the sensor system times more accurate that anything before. being made in sensing technology that will
sensors in almost any environment safely clutter and manually look along the the watch, and do not allow for equivalent incorporates a biological component, and This is being trialled by the Royal Navy.4 better enable autonomous systems to gather
and cheaply. A wide range of weather, bearing to visually confirm the track). The autonomous approaches. Autonomous vessels has the potential to create highly sensitive exponentially more, and a greater variety of,
bathymetric sensors and miniaturised sonar programming required to train AI systems are therefore constrained to the current method sensors that are quick and easy to use. Moores Law, the continual cramming of data. We however foresee that the challenge
equipment, mounted on unmanned systems, is sophisticated and complex. of watchkeeping rather than performing the This technology is already finding uses in more transistors onto silicon chips, is still a will be making sense of this vast quantity of
are used for hydrographic survey and object Resilience trained crew configure task differently to achieve the same effect, i.e. healthcare, agriculture and food production, reality though near its physical limits with data and processing it with appropriate levels
detection. Over time, the way in which these equipment for the prevailing conditions monitoring the ship and surroundings to ensure environmental and security applications. In computing performance increases slowing.5 of fidelity to generate the levels of situational
sensors are used will continue to progress, and assess relevant information, taking the safe and smooth navigation of the ship. the maritime sector, biosensors mounted on However, emerging graphical processing awareness that future autonomous systems
for example Simultaneous Localisation and into account how the conditions have Creating regulations that allow equivalence will an unmanned vessel are integral to the cost units offer increasing computing power will need to successfully operate in complex
Mapping (SLAM) will provide underwater affected sensor range and sensitivity, to unlock more capabilities of autonomous sensing. effective, near real-time in-situ monitoring when matrixed together as an alternative maritime environments. We believe that
autonomous systems with real-time gain situational awareness of the vessel and of high impact, difficult to measure marine to conventional computer chips that may the main challenges will not be associated
navigation and mapping capability in an surrounding environment. When sensors pollutants.3 not be up to the challenges posed by next- with the hardware, but with the software
environment where GPS is unavailable. fail, the crew can detect the failure and, if generation autonomous systems,6 prompting and processing elements. This will require
needed, revert to traditional techniques. Novel navigation sensors, predominantly a transition to alternative solutions, such as smart uses of sensor fusion techniques, big
Key challenges associated with sensor Fully autonomous vessels will need to based on quantum technologies are neuromorphic computing (a novel computer data processing, and intelligent systems to
technology and situational awareness overcome system failure without manual dramatically improving accuracy. The design inspired by the structure of the brain) condense vast quantities of raw sensory data
includes: intervention. quantum compass exploits the 1997 Nobel- and sensor technology. A pioneering vision into actionable information.
2
http://www.unmanned-ship.org/munin/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/MUNIN-D8-6-Final-Report-Autonomous-Bridge-CML-final.pdf MUNIN D8.6: Final Report: autonomous Bridge 5
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/01/05/ces-2017-moores-law-not-dead-says-intel-boss/
3
http://www.oceans17mtsieeeaberdeen.org/index.php/programme/workshops/sensor-and-system-innovations-for-the-oceans-of-tomorrow BRAAVOO: Biosensors for Near Real-Time Marine 6
http://news.stanford.edu/press-releases/2017/03/13/moores-law-ends-computers-begin/
Toxicant Monitoring 7
http://optics.org/news/8/5/9 Sensors that mimic the human retina promise improved machine vision
4
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229694-000-quantum-positioning-system-steps-in-when-gps-fails/ Quantum positioning system steps in when GPS fails
20 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 21
3.3 Connectivity
What is the technology? networks can provide ship-to-shore coverage ships themselves are placed at severe risk and receiver away from its actual location. While
Contemporary maritime surface out to 30 km from the coast.1 In addition, operations would be far less efficient. MCMF techniques can help, by spotting
communications technology is typified by: companies, such as Tampnet are providing outliers in the received signals, the most
offshore 4G to customers in strategic areas Internet access is becoming a mandatory way robust defence would be to use encrypted
Ship to near ship / shore using VHF/MF of interest such as the North Sea and Gulf of life to all generations of people. In the GNSS services where applicable, such as the
(Very High Frequency / Medium Frequency) of Mexico oil fields, where drilling platforms, past, the challenges of delivering the Internet Galileo Public Regulated Service.
communications Floating Production Storage and Offloading to crew and passengers were regarded as
Ship to far ship / shore using satellite (FPSO) units and support vessels can make being too difficult (or expensive) due to the Fully autonomous shipping will require remote
communications (SATCOM) and HF use of low latency (compared to SATCOM) nature of the environment. However, it is monitoring and this may require (multiple)
(High Frequency) and very high bandwidth communications. now recognised that Internet access is a key high data rate services including high
In addition, advances in SATCOM technology differentiator for passengers (e.g. on cruise definition video and real time radar streams.
There are several important communications and lower operating costs have made it liners) and also for crew retention on non- to monitor or improve automation) where when integrating with legacy shipping. These services can be expected to need multi-
use cases for this technology, based around feasible for high value platforms, such as passenger shipping (e.g. cargo transportation, reports are fed to cloud-based computing Mbps of data throughput, with high reliability.
maritime standards and these include: cruise ships, to be followed by individual fishing etc.) where young people are centres (which could be on or off-ship) that Autonomous shipping will be critically
satellite spot beams, delivering very high data otherwise deterred from entering the industry respond accordingly to control all aspects of dependent on Position, Navigation and Improvements in connectivity widen the
Distress and safety systems rates for passenger convenience (voice calls due to the isolated lifestyle. the ships physical and electronic systems. Timing (PNT) systems to geo-locate possibility of cyber security incidents. While
Identification systems and Internet access) over WiFi and cellular Next, the crew and passenger networks themselves. Currently, there is a high reliance safety critical systems are currently stove-
Electronic navigation access.2,3 How it is changing and key will provide a range of operational and on GNSS systems, which have an inherently piped (due to the nature of their historical
Security alerting challenges convenience services across the ship and link low amount of received power at the development), the efficiency benefits of using
Voice communications In contrast, underwater communications Maritime communications is undergoing up with the off-ship connectivity. Earths surface and are therefore prone to common communications and computing
rely on Very Low Frequency (VLF) to a depth a step change in technological capability. interference. GNSS can be made more robust platforms may become compelling. In the
Each of these systems are narrowband of 40m and acoustic waves below that The VHF Data Exchange System (VDES) will IoT technology on ships will rely on large through high quality Multi-Constellation, automotive industry, a currently common
in nature. This suits the communications depth. Both are extremely low data rate increase the throughput and reliability of data amounts of electronic devices being Multi-Frequency (MCMF) receivers that use method of cyber-attack is to target
technology with VHF/MF/HF being inherently technologies, e.g. providing 300 bps. services for critical ships systems across all connected through a ships superstructure. multiple antennas to receive services across infotainment systems which then open up
limited by frequency of operation to a modes of off-ship communications. This is notoriously difficult given the number multiple constellations (e.g. GPS, GLONASS access to other critical systems. Autonomous
maximum of a few kbps (HF), tens of kbps Why it is important and thickness of metal bulkheads and difficult and Galileo and Beidou in the future). maritime systems would do well to consider
(MF/VHF) and potentially hundreds of kbps Critical ship systems depend on off-ship In the future, autonomous ships will rely on to access areas. It will not be possible to rely Spoofing of GNSS signals is an emerging security from the outset and define solutions
(for emerging VHF) of data. SATCOM, which connectivity to provide services ranging from a number of different layers of networks and wholly on wired communications, in particular threat, where fake GNSS signals slowly slew a with a defence in depth mindset.
is capable of much higher data rates, is electronic navigation (including weather connectivity: Beginning with the on-board
regarded as inherently expensive to use but reporting) to automated identification and network of sensors and actuators required to
will reduce in cost. distress and safety notifications. Included in monitor and control the ships, these will form 1
J ennings, A, Modern Maritime Communications, World Radiocommunication Seminar 2016,
this definition is access to Global Navigation an extension of the Internet of Things (IoT, https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-r/md/15/wrs16/sp/R15-WRS16-SP-0026!!PDF-E.pdf, accessed on 28th July 2017.
2
Harris CapRock, Cruising into the Future: The New Maritime Communications Standard, 14 Apr 2015,
More recently, maritime has begun to Satellite Systems (GNSS) such as Global a collection of physical objects connected to
www.harriscaprock.com/blog/cruising-into-the-future-the-new-maritime-communications-standard/, accessed on 28th July 2017.
make use of other technologies for general Positioning System (GPS). Without this the Internet or other networks allowing them 3
Nautilus International, Mobile technology could shape future of maritime communications, 3 Jul 2017,
communications. Commercial cellular 3G / 4G connectivity, safety of life, cargo and the to communicate with people or machines https://nautilusint.org/en/what-we-say/nautilus-news/mobile-technology-could-shape-future-of-maritime-communications/, accessed on 28th July 2017.
22 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 23
A view of its future addition, 5G includes modes to specifically Transferring data using visible light or Li-Fi
New communications technology will support IoT connectivity, which could be of is a promising development for underwater
present itself as an opportunity for maritime value to autonomous ship IoT architectures. maritime communications. Although
systems. To support autonomous ships Optical Communications are still considered
through on-board IoT, it may be necessary There are many developments in experimental they present viable alternatives for
to embrace wireless connectivity within the SATCOM that could revolutionise off-ship underwater communications as the data rates,
ship. Different commodity technologies communications. In particular: compared with traditional acoustic methods,
exist including: 60 GHz and WiFi that would are much higher. Such systems could offer
need supplementing with relay technology High bandwidth, low cost services derived two-way connectivity to unmanned underwater
throughout the ship. This could include from advances in technology in the Ku vehicles performing numerous tasks from mine
sections of wired connectivity spanning some and Ka bands. Higher power satellites will hunting to biological surveys of the seabed.
sections. A key technology will be Wireless change the antenna profiles required and
Mesh Networking (WMN), which is a general open up the technology to more types of Some ships already have PNT backup systems,
means for automatically establishing multiple ships. potentially including marine grade Inertial
paths through a network based on the Multiband access will also allow ships to Navigation Systems (INS). However, these
available connectivity. WMN also has a part switch between high throughput and low rapidly become inaccurate and cannot be relied
to play with ship-to-ship communications. cost services as required.5 upon over extended periods. For instance, an
Here, ships on busy shipping lanes could relay Inter-satellite communications links are inaccuracy of one nautical mile per hour is
communications for one another, including already in service, but will continue to typical. Future PNT backup systems include:
beyond line of sight, as a cheap alternative to evolve as they promise lower latency
SATCOM. communications than using ground station Automated Celestial Navigation (through
relay over very long ranges. star tracking, though limited in some
Fifth Generation (5G) is the next generation operating conditions, such as heavy cloud-
of mobile, cellular communications, following With a variety of methods for connecting and cover).
on from Long Term Evolution (LTE) and 4G. data rates that accompany them, maritime Signals of Opportunity (using signals
5G has a role to play in supplementing ship- applications utilising the IoT concept will in that are transmitted for non-navigation
to-shore communications, where studies time allow for live tracking and status updates purposes, but may be exploited for
with 4G have shown that with appropriate being sent to ground control sites and other navigation purposes).
antenna and power configurations optimised vessels in the local area. The outcome of Quantum grade INS (using cold atom
for this environment, then ranges of 100 km such a network could make Automatic interferometry), which has an inaccuracy
could be achieved. There is also a possibility Identification Systems (AIS) obsolete, given of 1m per day but is still in an early stage
of extending 5G networks further out to the global reach of the connectivity options of development and potentially ten years
sea, particularly in busy shipping areas.4 In available. away from practical utility.
4
arine Electronics and Communications, A future for maritime communications without satellites, 3 May 2017,
M
www.marinemec.com/news/view,a-future-for-maritime-communications-without-satellites_47532.htm, accessed on 28th July 2017.
5
Marine Electronics and Communications, Innovations will enhance maritime satellite communications, 25 Jan 2016,
www.marinemec.com/news/view,innovations-will-enhance-maritime-satellite-communications_41537.htm, accessed on 28th July 2017.
24 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 25
Why it is important continue to increase in severity. The need hostile acts could be crippling. If hostile acts Three areas to watch will be
Cyber security is becoming an increasingly to enable remote access to infrastructure begin impacting elements of critical national
important topic as current threat blocking and vessels might increase the risk of severe and international infrastructure, the result
and prevention mechanisms are becoming disruption to international shipping and could be greater government involvement
less effective against advanced attacks. The maritime operations due to political, criminal in the maritime industry. The recognition Counter GNSS Spoofing Communications Artificial Intelligence (AI)
challenge for cyber security is to provide or terrorist activities. that cyber security has become an urgent Military GNSS is encrypted which offers As platforms become increasingly The use of AI could have a profound
an adaptive protection process, integrating issue for the maritime sector is evident by a level of protection, but civil GNSS systems controlled off-platform, communications impact on the management and
predictive, preventive, detective and Technology and software developments the release of the Interim Guidelines on are primarily unsecure and vulnerable. will be the entryway for external exploitation of information in the
response capabilities.3 As part of the cyber have ushered in new ways of managing Maritime Cyber Risk Management by the The lack of a human in the system means cyberthreats. With the launch of the first maritime domain. AI also has the
security arsenal, advanced threat protection platforms. Currently, there exist platforms IMO on the 1st June 2016.2 that if a cyber-attack is successful, there ever quantum communications satellite potential to revolutionise cyber security
technologies are becoming an increasingly capable of being controlled anywhere in is no one on-board to visibly see or by China, that is laying the foundation for defensively and offensively, although it
important in countering sophisticated attacks the world through the use of web-based A view of its future physically counter any such attack. It a hack-proof global quantum network. remains to be seen how this develops.
and are becoming a key part of a wider piloting tools. Whilst this greatly increases In the future cyber security solutions will may be that civil GNSS on autonomous This area of communications could have
cyber defence strategy. These technologies the ease with which these systems can be require adaptive security architectures that platforms will require encryption or a new leader in the field.
focus on detecting attacks in the delivery, managed, it also makes the dependence focus on the security needed to support additional independent navigational
exploitation, installation and command and on cyber information a critical factor flexible digital ecosystems, the IoT and AI- capabilities to warn of course deviations.
control stage of a cyber-attack. for successful operations. This internet based solutions. Security will by necessity,
connection provides a window for hackers have to become fluid and adaptive. Security
Autonomous systems will represent a new to attempt to gain information, or even the in the IoT and AI-related environments will
challenge to cyber defence strategies. Whilst control of platforms. be particularly challenging.4
AI will be a key enabler for autonomous
operations and will also take centre-stage At present, the majority of marine insurance As maritime vessels and infrastructure
in the mitigation of cyber threats, it will also policies include a cyberattack exclusion become more intelligent and independent
potentially be a devastating tool for future clause (CL380 10/03). This places cyber- of people, more tasks and processes will
hackers. attacks outside the scope of most insurance become exposed to the risks which to date,
policies, any company failing to develop the have mainly been experienced by other
How it is changing and key required levels of cyber security face severe sectors. Given the highly connective nature
challenges financial and reputational risks. of autonomous systems, it will be critical to
With the increase in connectivity, data ensure robust measures are put in place to
sharing and autonomous systems, there As 90% of world trade is carried by ensure the cyber security aspect of maritime
seems little doubt that the cyber threat will international shipping, the potential costs of platforms and infrastructure.
3
. MacDonald & P. Firstbrook, Designing an Adaptive Security Architecture for Protection from Advanced Attacks, Gartner Research: G00259490 v2, 28 Jan 2016,
N
www.gartner.com/doc/2665515/designing-adaptive-security-architecture-protection.
4
D.W Cearley et al., Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017: a Gartner Trend Insight Report, Gartner Research: G00319572, 21 Mar 2017,
www.gartner.com/doc/3645332/top--strategic-technology-trends.
28 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 29
1
lobal Marine Technology Trends 2030, Lloyds Register, QinetiQ, Southampton University, Aug 2015.
G 1
lobal Marine Technology Trends 2030, Lloyds Register, QinetiQ, Southampton University, Aug 2015.
G
2
Gupta A., McIntyre A. Hype Cycle for Sustainability, 2017, Gartner Research ID: G00314631, 19 Jul 2017. 2
Gupta A., McIntyre A. Hype Cycle for Sustainability, 2017, Gartner Research ID: G00314631, 19 Jul 2017.
3
Lane J., Sustainable Marine Fuel initiative consortium to launch 2-year testing, certification, scaling effort for drop-in marine biofuels, BiofuelsDigest, 27 Sep 2015, 3
Lane J., Sustainable Marine Fuel initiative consortium to launch 2-year testing, certification, scaling effort for drop-in marine biofuels, BiofuelsDigest, 27 Sep 2015,
www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2015/09/27/sustainable-marine-fuel-initiative-consortium-to-launch-2-year-testing-certification-scaling-effort-for-drop-in-marine-biofuels/. www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2015/09/27/sustainable-marine-fuel-initiative-consortium-to-launch-2-year-testing-certification-scaling-effort-for-drop-in-marine-biofuels/.
30 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 31
4
. Woodford, Supercapacitors, 22 Jul 2017, www.explainthatstuff.com/how-supercapacitors-work.html.
C
5
Harvesting Motion into Energy, Witt Limited, www.witt-energy.com, accessed 27 July 2017.
6
A Ship with Energy Harvesting System to Generate Power from Waves, MI New Network, 30 Jun 2017,
www.marineinsight.com/future-shipping/a-ship-with-energy-harvesting-system-to-generate-power-from-waves/.
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Team Ddale, Air Ballast Biomimetic Cargo Ship, 26 Feby 2016, https://asknature.org/idea/air-ballast-cargo-ship/#.WXngi3KWwdU.
32 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems Photo: Moussa81 / Istockphoto.com 33
Overcoming the psychology of There are examples of products and open assessment of the risks involved will help A legal perspective in addition to the development of codes of Product liability
regulation technologies where regulations followed their companies to operate safely, and the public to Responsibilities conduct and best practice guidelines, can go It follows that the significance of product
The lack of a specific regulatory regime does commercialisation, and dealt with risks as they overcome the reliance upon the need for formal The use of any system, of whatever character, a long way in demonstrating that the safety liability (i.e. the liability a producer has for
not mean that an activity is illegal, forbidden materialised or became evident or realistic. regulation. This will permit the use of innovative should be safe for the other users of the of operation has being dealt with even if in a damages caused by the product) will increase.
or restricted. It is permissible and lawful to systems without delay, in an optimum way, and sea and the marine environment. This basic particular circumstance a failure has occurred. This creates a further problem. Product
engage with new activities and technology Regulations for marine autonomy are sought, will support the evolution of technology. principle applies to all safety aspects and liability is not harmonised between states
subject to the general requirements imposed primarily, by companies who prefer to have includes considerations of cyber-attacks The development of autonomy does not affect and it can make significant difference if the
by law. It is also incorrect to think that the quantifiable regulatory risks. This is more There is also a need to move regulators leading to reprogramming or loss of control the aforementioned general legal framework. industry assumes strict voluntary, rather than
lack of regulation means that autonomous attractive to investors rather than exposure to away from a mind-set of risk avoidance into of an autonomous system. Regulations flesh It does however pose some difficult questions. fault-based, liability. If the applicable standard
systems and those developing them are the potentially more extensive general liability a mind-set of risk management, identifying this obligation out and provide standards In particular the responsibility for the is based on negligence, the demonstration
beyond the power of law. General legal regime, with unspecified regulatory obstacles, and mitigating risks alongside the technology that need to be discharged concerning the consequences of failure of an autonomous of fault may be very difficult for complex
requirements concerning criminal and civil that may prohibit the sale and use of their development. This may require the sector construction and operation of systems. system is problematic. In non-autonomous systems consisting of several hardware
liability will apply to all activities. In the products. Furthermore, developing regulatory to develop innovative approaches to safety Regulations further decide who will be liable systems the presence of a person in charge, components as well as continuously updated
absence of specific regulations, public and standards is seen as ring-fencing their stake management and regulation, enabling under criminal and administrative liability the Master, provides the necessary legal and software. This could be seen as a way the
governmental bodies, with powers to oversee and reduces the entry of low-cost/low-quality business to thrive whilst understanding the and who, when, and how much will have enforcement link between the wrongdoer and industry avoids responsibility by diffusing it
the safety of marine activities, will normally competition. Application of effective risk levels of risk they are taking. Other sectors, to be paid to compensate the victims of their employer, who has the financial ability between the component manufacturers who
have the general power to authorise the management is the best way of advancing new such as automotive, are already making accidents. The regulations may operate in to pay for compensation. For an autonomous will be distributed around the world. Strict
testing and the use of emerging technology. technology. Thus an objective, realistic and progress in these areas. addition or in substitution of the general legal system there would be a question on what liability would, by contrast provide security
obligations. This depends on the wording of or who caused the damage. The answer may for third parties affected by the autonomous
the regulation. point to a person who is not an employee of system and confidence that the industry
the owner of the platform but, instead, the readily accepts responsibility. However, strict
In a non-regulated environment it is easier to Design Authority, a software developer, or a liability may pose significant obstacles to the
argue, in case of accident, that appropriate technician employed by the manufacturer, or operation of autonomous systems depending
measures have not been taken and therefore a contractor. It is then problematic to whom on the cost of obtaining insurance. As other
the standard of care required by general criminal and administrative responsibility will sectors will be addressing similar issues, a
law has not been reached. Self-regulation, be attributed and who will be liable for the cross sector approach may be beneficial.
involving risk assessment and management, damages caused.
36 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 37
1
http://usblogs.pwc.com/emerging-technology/robotics/
2
Container shipping faces critical moment after years of losses, https://www.ft.com/content/8b633cfa-e7f0-11e6-967b-c88452263daf?mhq5j=e1
3
http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/
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Brynjolfsson, A. & McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.
40 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 41
5
Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 (GMTT2030)
6
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/technology-digital-people-organization-smart-solution-productivity-paradox/
7
https://knect365.com/talentandtraining/article/842b789d-aa16-411f-95c9-6393715daf35/digital-transformation-how-will-it-change-the-seafarers-role
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http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/where-machines-could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cant-yet?
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J.D. Lee & K.A. See (2004). Trust in Automation: Designing for Appropriate Reliance. Human Factors, the Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, 46 (1), 50-80, doi: 10.1518/hfes.46.1.50_30392.
10
Davis, F.D. (1989). Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology, MIS Quarterly, 13 (3), 319340, doi:10.2307/249008.
11
Davis, F.D., Bagozzi, R.P. & Warshaw, P.R. (1989). User acceptance of computer technology: a comparison of two theoretical models, Management Science, 35, 9821003, doi:10.1287/mnsc.35.8.982
42 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 43
Skilled seafarers of the future Maritime roles are going to look very different Future of maritime in an
The maritime industry is a growing sector that in 2030. Seafarers will be operating on vessels autonomous era
is struggling to find adequately skilled seafarers that are highly digitised and connected. The Emerging autonomous technologies are
and predicting significant shortfalls out to 2025, integration between people and machine will primarily driven by business efficiency and
particularly in the supply of qualified officers.12 be critical to effective maritime operations. cost-savings. Technological changes are now
This shift from manually crewing the ship to increasingly focused on substituting rather The ironies of deny operators the opportunity
Indications from a recent UK government monitoring machines, often remotely, will than enhancing people in the workplace to autonomous systems for practicing these basic
report13 echoes this, noting an overall increase require higher skill levels including: drive down labour costs. The economic and A common aim of automation control skills. This means that
in global demand for seafarers over the last social implications of this, paint a picture of is to replace people. However, when manual takeover is
5 years. Importantly estimates highlight that Greater levels of digital and technical extreme change with a radical alteration of the more we depend on necessary usually because
global demand for officers is now greater competency labour markets and new operating models. technology and push it to something has gone wrong
than that for ratings a continuation of a 25 Working across cyber-physical boundaries Future ship systems and equipment will be its limits, the more we need or a situation unforeseen by
year trend that looks set to persist explained, spanning the physical machine and more dynamic, evolving and changing to highly-skilled, well trained, designers this means that
in part, by the higher skill levels required computer networks meet emerging technologies. Interactions well-practised people to operators need to be more,
for vessels that are becoming ever more Seamless collaboration with autonomous with intelligent systems will be commonplace. make systems resilient, rather than less, skilled in
technically complex. In the short-term an and robotic systems The nature of most roles will change and acting as the last line of order to successfully cope with
additional challenge will be the need to define Virtual and remote working with land- most will move ashore. defence against the failures these atypical conditions.16
and train the workforce of the future. based crew (including robots), experts and that will inevitably occur.15
other colleagues This is against a backdrop of a global shift This is the paradox of
Workforce planning needs to be informed by Ability to manage cyber hygiene and in both maritime trade and technological Manual control of maritime automation. As autonomous
a detailed understanding of how emerging respond to threats development from West to East. The vessels is a highly skilled systems become more
technology and trends in ship design will shape Managing fleets from remote control indications are that we are completely activity across a wide range advanced the contribution
future operations. Already, there is a move centres unprepared for the social, economic and of conditions (wind, sea state, of people becomes more
towards larger, more technically advanced political disruption about to take place.17 tides, etc.) and skills need to crucial not less. But the
vessels, increasingly specialised towards Overall smarter ships will require smarter Opportunities will favour those individuals, be practiced continuously in opportunity for the person to
particular tasks.12 This is now changing the people as they adjust to new routines, lower companies and countries who adapt quickly order to maintain them. Yet gain the required experience
types of skills required towards an increased manning levels, and technology that is not to skill and industry obsolescence. It will be highly reliable autonomous significantly decreases.
requirement for highly specialised crews and infallible.14 Training needs to also adapt to necessary to fundamentally re-evaluate the systems that fail only rarely
people with expertise in technology and IT equip seafarers with these skills. role of the seafarer.
systems (e.g. electro-technical officers).
Naval defence be accompanied by a shift in the balance search and rescue, piracy, coastal protection, Such technologies will require new and
In naval defence, surface, aerial and sub- between autonomy and human decision- etc. These platforms will have the ability to: different levels of support and oversight.
surface autonomous sensor and weapons making, with people increasingly leveraging These may include manned centres ashore,
platforms will be controlled by Smart the power of AI and machine-learning. The Work with one another in a team/swarm on-board systems (for example on a mother-
Machine technologies that exploit AI nature of existing trades, branch structures, towards a common goal. ship which may be in the relative vicinity of
and machine learning techniques, albeit command organisations and logistics support Intelligently adapt to novel situations, for the autonomous system) and the ability to
under the oversight of naval personnel. will be transformed. example redistribute tasks in the event transfer control during missions between
Workplace automation will replace traditional that one or more of the team experiences these local and remote operational centres.
operators who now manage information Fully autonomous naval platforms surface degraded performance.
rather than operating equipment (possibly ships, submarines and airborne vehicles are Evolve mission plans based on information
located remotely from the vessel). The role emerging in significant numbers for a variety received during the conduct of an
of intelligent systems will increase and of functions, such as, intelligence gathering, operation.
automated decision-making will become
more commonplace where peoples reaction
times are to slow to react to high-speed high-
volume threats.
Ocean space autonomous surface vessels and submarine jetliners4) where its location is uncertain. Long Final thoughts confront these issues. There is a need to resources, in tandem with a desire for
The wider ocean space environment will see a gliders. These were deployed off the north of endurance systems such as adapted Argo Maritime autonomous systems exploiting develop a more consolidated approach to greater parity in standards of living across
host of autonomous unmanned underwater, Scotland to collect a range of oceanographic floats or gliders will provide wide-spread ocean rapid and disruptive technologies will our activities in the maritime sector on an the world. The adoption of maritime
surface and air vehicles (UUVs, USVs and measurements, seabed imaging, and passive monitoring and when coupled to intelligent fundamentally change the nature of the international basis. autonomous systems could be a powerful
UAVs) emerge that will be capable of acoustic monitoring of marine mammals. acoustic sensors will provide essential way in which we interact and operate in enabler to achieving this. We, therefore,
completing joint autonomous operations and emergency location information at a fraction the marine and maritime environment. The oceans provide a critical opportunity need to proactively resolve the important
missions. They will be equipped with: Research that is underway today is of the cost of blind ocean volume geophysical We recognise that a number of significant to support global prosperity and growth, issues around control, ethics, informed
developing sensors and vessels which will searches using ships. challenges remain to be resolved, but the overcoming a range of socio-economic consent and market uptake as these
Highly efficient propulsion systems enable continuous, long-term monitoring benefits to the environment, business and and national issues arising from population systems are designed and implemented.
Energy storage and marine renewable of the oceans. This provides the ability to Previously inaccessible regions will be opened society will necessitate combined action to growth, climate change and scarcity of
energy harvesting devices continuously monitor, at both micro and up through the use of autonomous systems.
A diverse range of sensing hardware macro levels, the health and changing nature This will enable access to the wealth of
supported by localised data processing and of the ocean environment. As an example, resources within and under the ocean, and
decision-making software facilities enhanced Argo-type floats,2 such as protect the marine environment through
Advanced navigation and communication JAMSTECs Deep Ninja3 can now reach the a greater ability to conduct high-precision,
technologies deep ocean (~4000 m), and new sensors are low impact mining and extraction activities.
being added to long endurance sub-surface Such systems will also reduce the risk to
Together, these will enable a novel framework vehicles (e.g. floats, gliders) to measure critical people who currently work in hazardous
for exploring, monitoring and safeguarding oceanographic parameters, such as the partial environments. Combined aerial and sub-
the ocean environmental space. pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) used to surface autonomous vehicles will be able to
monitor ocean uptake of carbon dioxide. launch small sub-surface sensor platforms
The marine science community will continue into remote or dangerous regions (e.g.
to exploit the ability of multiple aerial, It is noteworthy that recent incidents, such as calving ice shelves in the Antarctic). These will
surface and sub-surface vehicles to undertake the loss of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 and bring a number of advantages, including the
combined oceanographic surveys. A current Air France AF447, demonstrate the inability of rapid-deployment for emergency pollution
example is the recent (May-June 2017) current technologies to rapidly locate a large monitoring or to tackle sub-surface oil
MASSMO4 campaign1 which involved 11 object (i.e. modern wide-bodied long-range pipeline and well leakages.
1
https://mars.noc.ac.uk/missions/massmo-4 (14th June 2017)
2
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu (14th June 2017)
3
https://www.sea-technology.com/features/2013/0213/deep_ninja.php (14th June 2017)
4
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-called-off ;
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/pilot-doomed-air-franceplane-shouted-4429508 (14th June 2017)
50 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Autonomous Maritime Systems 51
5G Fifth Generation mobile communications ICT Information and Communications MSC Maritime Safety Committee
standard Technology
Freyja Lockwood Tim Kent Justin Paul Professor Ajit Shenoi Richard Westgarth NEMS Nano Electromechanical Systems
Organisational Sciences Technical Director, Marine & Technical Consultant, Autonomy Professor of Lightweight Senior Business Development AES All-Electric Ships IMO International Maritime Organisation
Consultant, QinetiQ Offshore, Lloyds Register Campaign, QinetiQ Structures and Director of the Manager, QinetiQ pCO2 Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide
Southampton Marine and AI Artificial Intelligence INS Inertial Navigation System
Maritime Institute, University PNT Position, Navigation and Timing
of Southampton AIS Automatic Identification Systems IoT Internet of Things
SATCOM Satellite communications
AL Autonomy Levels LTE Long Term Evolution
SLAM Simultaneous Localisation and
AMS Autonomous Maritime Systems LR Lloyds Register Mapping
AUV Autonomous Underwater Vehicle MASS Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships STCW Standards for Training and
Mark ODell Emma Parkin Harry Beagrie Elliot Gold Professor Mikis Tsimplis Certification of Watchkeepers
Technology and Futures Analyst Graduate Engineer, Autonomy Graduate Applied Scientist QinetiQ Graduate in Mechanical Professor of Maritime Law and FinTech Financial technology MASSMO Marine Autonomous Systems in
and Editor of the QinetiQ Campaign, QinetiQ for QinetiQ Maritime, Land Engineering for Maritime, Land Ocean Sciences and Deputy Support of Marine Observations UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
Corporate Technology Watch and Weapons, with a BSc & Weapons, with BEng (Hons) Director of the Southampton FPSO Floating Production Storage &
(Hons) in Physics Mechanical Engineering Marine and Maritime Institute, Offloading MASSMO4 The fourth MASSMO event that US United States
University of Southampton occurred MayJune 2017 and demonstrated
GEOINT Geospatial Intelligence the use of marine autonomy in a scientific USV Unmanned Surface Vehicle
marine observations application
GMT2030 Global Marine Trends 2030 UUV Unmanned Underwater Vehicles
MASRWG Maritime Autonomous Systems
GMTT2030 Global Marine Technology Regulatory Working Group VDES VHF Data Exchange System
Trends 2030
MCA Maritime & Coastguard Agency VHF Very High Frequency
Mike Clarke Jean-Paul Lacey Dr. Jon Downes Professor Jim Scanlan Professor Damon Teagle
Lecturer in Ship Science and GNSS Global Navigation Satellite Systems
Communications Subject Matter Creative Studio Designer, Professor of Design in Engineering Holds a Royal Society Wolfson
MCM Mine Countermeasure VLF Very Low Frequency
Expert and QinetiQ Corporate The Print Centre Creative Team, academic lead for the Maritime and the Environment and Research Merit Award and
Robotics Laboratory, University COLREGs Collision Regulations
Technology Watch Contributor University of Southampton academic lead of the University is Professor of Geochemistry
MCMF Multi-Constellation, Multi-Frequency WMN Wireless Mesh Networking
of Southampton Strategic Research Group on and Deputy Director of the
GPS Global Positioning System
Autonomous Systems, University Southampton Marine and
of Southampton Maritime Institute, University
of Southampton
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