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Compendium: Handbook 3
LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage from the
programme Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development within the Fifth
Framework Programme of the European Union.
http://www.luda-project.net
LUDA Compendium
Sustainable urban regeneration and its assessment
Introduction
This handbook discusses sustainable urban regeneration and its assessment. The main aim
of the handbook is to provide a broad introduction to assessment in the sustainable
regeneration of large urban distressed areas (LUDAs). The purpose of this handbook is also
to ensure that all stakeholders have a common understanding of the process and its
requirements.
The handbook has two parts. Both parts cover the same material, although they have
differing lengths. Part 1 of the handbook provides a short introduction to the subject area,
while part 2 is longer and goes into more detail. The longer version of the text is best suited
to readers who have some knowledge of regeneration and rehabilitation in urban areas.
The handbook includes internal and external links. Internal links look like this. If you click on
them, you will move to another part of the document. External links usually to websites
look like this: www.luda-project.net. If you click on the link it will take you to a web page.
You may find it helpful to consult the compendium glossary. This explains the meanings of
specific terms and words, e.g. sustainable development and quality of life. You will find the
glossary as a separate document on the compendium web page (www.luda-
project.net/comphpage1).
Acknowledgements
This handbook is based on material produced by the LUDA project.
The compendium was compiled by the School of the Built Environment, Napier University,
Edinburgh.
Table of Contents
Introduction............................................................................................................................ 2
Using this handbook ............................................................................................................. 2
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. 3
Part 2....................................................................................................................................... 4
1. Introduction........................................................................................................................ 4
2. Sustainable urban regeneration....................................................................................... 4
2.1 What is sustainable urban re/development (SUD)? ................................................. 4
2.2 What is urban regeneration? ...................................................................................... 6
2.3 The persistence of urban distress ............................................................................. 7
2.4 The new agenda for urban regeneration ................................................................... 7
2.5 What is sustainable urban regeneration? ................................................................. 8
3. Sustainable urban regeneration assessment ................................................................. 9
3.1 Assessment methods and techniques .................................................................... 10
4. Definitions ........................................................................................................................ 11
5. Why carry out assessment? ........................................................................................... 12
5.1 The importance of sustainable assessment ........................................................... 12
5.2 Collaborative, Strategic, Goal Orientated Planning (CoSGOP) the LUDA
improvement process ..................................................................................................... 14
5.3 Assessment Methodology for CoSGOP LUDA Improvement Process................. 16
6. What methods and techniques are appropriate for evaluating the sustainability of
urban regeneration?............................................................................................................ 17
6.1 Legal requirements in Europe .................................................................................. 17
6.2 Policies, plans programmes and projects............................................................... 19
6.3 Economic, social and environmental problems ..................................................... 20
6.4 Participation with stakeholders................................................................................ 23
6.5 Futures workshops in urban regeneration.............................................................. 27
7. Which methods and techniques are appropriate for stages in the process?............ 30
7.1 Diagnosing LUDAs .................................................................................................... 31
7.2 Visioning the sustainable regeneration of LUDAs ................................................. 34
7.3 Assessing plans, programmes and projects (programming)................................ 38
7.4 Implementing LUDA improvement activities .......................................................... 40
7.5 Monitoring improvement of quality of life in LUDAs .............................................. 41
8. How will the method be funded?.................................................................................... 43
8.1 Public: European, national, regional and local funding sources .......................... 43
8.2 The Public Private Partnership Route (PPP) ........................................................... 45
References ........................................................................................................................... 49
Part 2
1. Introduction
The section 2 of this handbook provides a broad introduction to sustainable development and
urban regeneration. Section 4 introduces the commonly used terms, the main types of
assessment and the definitions used in assessment. Section 5 explores why assessment(s)
is necessary and the main benefits of undertaking assessment, including the regeneration
and assessment processes and the wide range of actors involved. Section 6 introduces the
main assessment methods and techniques that can be used to evaluate the sustainability of
urban regeneration. Section 7 identifies commonly used methods and techniques appropriate
for the main stages in the process. Finally section 8 explores sources of funding for
assessment.
The main aim of this handbook is to provide a broad introduction to assessment in the
sustainable urban regeneration of LUDAs. The purpose of the handbook is also to ensure
that all stakeholders have a common understanding of the process and its requirements. For
more detailed guidance on the range of assessment methods available and on their detailed
application when undertaking assessment(s) please consult handbook 5.
Futurity Environment
Concern for Concern for
future the integrity
generations of eco-
systems
Participation Equity
PICABUE draws attention to concerns about the quality of the environment, equity of
resource consumption, as well as the participation of the public in decisions that affect their
lives, particularly in understanding the future implications of decisions taken today, on the
environmental systems and on current and future generations. And the impacts of urban
regeneration extend well beyond the site or the administrative boundaries of the area
concerned. As ecological footprinting makes clear, these impacts stretch far beyond the
member states concerned, affecting what Wackernagel and Rees (1996) called distant
elsewheres, see Figure 2.
The European Union and the majority of member states have placed sustainable
development at the heart of policy making (Busquin 2000) and it forms one of the main
building blocks of the urban thematic strategy and the current URBAN programme
[discussed in handbook 2]. Sustainable urban development (SUD) relates to questions about
urban futures, cities of tomorrow and the protection of their cultural heritage and how to build
the capacity needed to conserve resources, protect the environment and qualify whether
such action is equitable. In turn this means the assessments undertaken to evaluate the
sustainability of urban development must support and foster public participation in decisions
taken about the future of urban development because such inclusiveness is integral to SUD.
This top-down approach to tackling urban distress has now been replaced by the concept of
partnership. As a result regeneration has become dominated by partnerships, particularly
between the public and private sectors, where national and local government enter into
partnerships with regional development agencies and business to lever resources from the
private sector and channel money, capital and professional expertise into regeneration.
Unfortunately, while the property market interventionist approach has been with us for more
than 20 years, and partnerships have become common in many of the original EU member
states over the past 10, large areas of urban distress still remain and are widespread. This
suggests that neither the market or partnership approaches to tackling urban distress and
rehabilitating large areas is sufficient. This is because it is increasingly recognised that such
approaches only offer an ad-hoc, short-term response to distress experienced in urban areas
and not a long-term solution to deep-seated social or environmental problems. This has
prompted a review of urban policy and planning which recognises a new agenda for tackling
urban distress at sufficiently large and appropriate scale of action that enables proper
evaluation of both positive and negative impacts.
The EC views the URBAN Community Initiative as a success story. It has helped to raise
awareness about the importance of tackling urban distress as a form of poverty and social
exclusion requiring economic and environmental actions by cities and governed by those
members of the community most closely affected by such area-base rehabilitation.
New institutional forms are emerging that attempt to develop and deliver more holistic and
integrated bottom-up community-led regeneration programmes that include all stakeholders.
Such approaches increase the chances of developing long-lasting sustainable solutions to
the problems of deprived areas. Thus urban regeneration is now about governing
consortiums of stakeholders from the community working together with business and public
agencies to make integrated and sustainable social, economic and physical improvements to
a defined LUDA.
Environmentally Economically
unsustainable unsustainable
Physically Socially
unsustainable unsustainable
Overloaded, degenerating or
inefficient infrastructure, High crime rates, fear of
ageing and poorly crime, anomie, alienation
maintained building stock, and outward migration
lack of green space, poor
transportation systems
Sustainable urban regeneration seeks to tackle all these forms of unsustainability through an
integrated programme of projects intended reverse this cycle, preferably turning it instead
into a virtuous circle of improvement. Devising integrated programmes requires thinking
about cities and neighbourhoods in an organic and holistic way, recognising the
interrelationship and linkages between different problems and opportunities. Success needs
to be measured not just in terms of environmental improvements, but in the opportunities
created for empowering people, developing common visions and for nurturing commercial
and social enterprises. It requires greater integration across various urban decision-making
and professional disciplines. In this context, urban policy-makers, planners, property
developers, designers (architects and engineers) and constructors need to see themselves
as change-managers. They need to seek innovative solutions to adapt and regenerate cities
whilst supporting more sustainable lifestyles.
One of the important aims of SURA is to improve decision-making about urban development,
opening up the decision-making processes and making them transparent and open to
external scrutiny through public participation. Implementing SURA should encourage
decision-makers to give appropriate attention to sustainability issues in the realization of their
initiatives. Ideally, SURA should be fully integrated into policy-making and decision-making
processes and should lead to the production of information that can be used in planning as
well as raising public awareness and understanding.
4. Definitions
4.1.1 Methods, Techniques, Tools
In this handbook a consistent distinction is made between the terms methods, techniques
and tools. These are nested in a hierarchy as illustrated in Figure 4.
Method
Technique
Tool
Methodology
Method
This is used to mean a procedure followed in order to accomplish a task. It is a mode of
procedure - a (defined or systematic) way of doing something, especially (when specifying a
word or words) - in accordance with a particular theory or as associated with a particular
person.
Technique
This is a specific approach to performing a task. It is a methodical means of handling and
communicating complex details.
Tool
This is a (concrete or abstract) product used in applying a method: for instance, an
instrument of logic for assisting analysis.
Methodology
This is a body of procedures, principles, methods and techniques used - for example, to
conduct research - in a coherent, consistent, accountable and repeatable manner for a
specific programme, project or activity.
The inter-relationship between these four terms is explored more fully in section 5.1.2.
Although these assessment steps are easily described, the reality is that they can be very
difficult to deliver because of the complexity of the analysis, the wide range of stakeholders
involved and the potential for disagreement about the targets and indicators for improvement.
They embrace a very wide range of issues and actors so that in all cases there is a clear
need for assessment at each stage to enable objective, fully evidence-based sustainability
evaluations and provide sound information on the future implications of various options, both
for decision-makers and the wide range of other stakeholders. An established methodology
for this is known as collaborative, strategic, goal orientated planning (CoSGOP) which is
described in more detail in handbook 2. The commentary below provides further reflection on
CoSGOP in the context of setting the targets and indicators against which assessments have
to be made.
CoSGOP cuts across the community concern over urban distress and levels of decision
making required by government to promote a LUDA programme and ensures its
implementation in ways that achieve the desired improvements in the quality of life. As such
it provides a tool for mapping out a common pathway for stakeholders to follow through the
rehabilitation process. Figure 5 shows how this can be done, by setting the CoSGOP
approach within two axes representing the community and government decision-making
trajectories, the components of CoSGOP making up the respective steps and stages of the
sustainable urban rehabilitation process.
[Insert Figure 5]
Agreement on the goals of the rehabilitation programme is critical as these provide the
indicators that the programme targets and which it sets for the implementation of the
rehabilitation project. The following attempts to capture the goals of CoSCOP as a
community-based approach to tackling urban distress and area-based rehabilitation as a
sustainable solution. The goals are drawn form a good practice survey of urban policy and
planning on the following programmes:
Grite Steden Beleid (major cities project), Netherlands
Kvaters-loft (neighbourhood lift), Denmark
Soziale Stadt (socially integrative city), Germany
Programmi Intrgrati diIntervento (integrative planning), Italy
Area-based Partnerships, Ireland
These goals represent the main outcomes expected form the community-based approach to
tackling urban distress and area-based rehabilitation. They are pre-dominantly substantive,
as opposed to procedural aims and objectives and offer the opportunity for community to not
only assess the outcomes, but also identify if they meet the targets set. They are as follows:
Understand the urban distress experienced by the community. This requires urban
distress to be seen as multi-faceted and the outcome of many factors having an
adverse effect on the quality of life. Here the aim is to represent urban distress as a
form of poverty and multiple-depravation, whose complexity needs to be unpacked.
The object of this is to objectively represent the experience of urban distress and
resulting poverty.
Reversing the trend. Here the aim is to turn around the experience of urban distress.
This requires a trend analysis and set of indicators able to measure urban distress.
This is done by grouping the experiences and clustering them together thematically
under actions it is possible to take in tackling urban distress. The objective of such
actions is to tackle urban distress in an integrated way and with a strategy which is
capable of cutting across the multiple deprivation experienced. Table 1 sets out the
indicators and clustering of thematic groups.
Improving the quality of life. These targets are what the development should achieve
in terms of project implementation. Through appropriate monitoring and evaluation, it
should indicate any improvement in the quality of life using the indicators and
thematic groupings set out in Table 1.
Although CoSGOP provides a logical framework for the regeneration process, and for setting
targest and indicators, it is inadequately represents all aspects of assessment. Indeed some
of its stages may not require the use of assessment methods, i.e. improvement programme
and projects/implementation. Moreover, some elements are too restricted in terms of
assessment, i.e. stakeholder analysis, which could be seen as a technique in itself, and
problems and potentials, which does not consider data collection and scoping techniques.
The assessment methodology has been developed in order to identify which methods and
techniques can be used for evaluation and assessment and to identify the key stakeholders
responsible for decision-making at each stage of the process [see handbook 5: process
methods]. The principal methods and techniques that can be used at each stage of the
process are detailed in section 7 of this handbook.
The assessment methodology is also important for establishing the main actions and rules
involved in assessment, drawn from guidance relating to the process methods: strategic
environment assessment (SEA), sustainability assessment and prospective process through
scenarios [see handbook 5: process methods]. As SEA is now part of European legislation,
Back to Table of Contents 16
LUDA Compendium
Sustainable urban regeneration and its assessment
i.e. the SEA directive, it is essential that this procedure is fully integrated into any planning
process structure as part of the overall regeneration of LUDAs.
If a project requires an EIA the developer must prepare an environmental statement for
consideration by the planning authority. The essential elements in the environmental
statement are specified in Annex IV. They include: a description of the project; an outline of
the options considered by the developer; a description of the aspects of the environment
likely to be significantly affected by the proposed project; an outline of the measures
envisaged to prevent, reduce and where possible offset any significant effects on the
environment; and a non-technical summary (Watson, 2003). The directive also stipulates
that public authorities must involve stakeholders in assessment procedures [see also
section 6.4: participation with stakeholders].
The SEA Directive requires an environmental assessment of certain plans and programmes
which are likely to have significant environmental effects. A formal environmental
assessment is mandatory for:
plans and programmes for agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, industry, transport,
waste management, water management, telecommunications, tourism, town and
country planning or land use;
an assessment which has been deemed necessary under Directive 92/43/EEC (the
Habitats Directive) (ODPM, 2005):
Where plans or programmes determine the use of small areas at local level or are the result
of minor modifications to existing plans, member states may exempt them from SEA if they
are considered to have no environmental effects. National defence, civil emergency and
financial plans and programmes are also exempt (ODPM, 2004).
The SEA Directive requires that an environmental report is prepared as part of the SEA of a
plan or programme. In the report, the likely significant effects on the environment of
implementing the plan, and reasonable alternatives taking into account the objectives and
geographical scope of the plan, are identified, described and evaluated (Environment
In terms of LUDAs, the level of application is generally perceived to be at the lower tiers of
action, i.e. at the programme and project level. The strategic policies and plans provide the
context and constraints within which LUDA regeneration has to develop. However it is
important to note that policies and plans will be required within LUDA regeneration in support
of strategic decision-making in the programme (e.g. to direct project selection, formulation
and prioritisation) and for tactical decision making within projects (e.g. a design guide is an
instrument to influence decision making in building projects in a LUDA programme).
Figure 7: The tiered system of policies, plans, programmes and projects in relation to
environmental assessment
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
Integrated Cascading
Policy Policies objectives
Appraisal
(no Regs)
Plans/strategies SEA
The principal methods for tackling each of these levels are shown in Table 2. SEA is used to
assess policies but it is not a statutory requirement under the SEA Directive. Sustainability
appraisal [go to handbook 5: process methods] is a national procedure for assessing policies
and plans in the UK, i.e. as part of regional spatial strategies and local development plans;
however it can also be used as stand-alone method in other European countries.
Alternatively, the futures method: prospective process through scenarios [go to handbook 5:
process methods] is generic in nature and therefore can be used in all manner of situations
either to assess policies, plans, programmes and/or projects.
Table 2: Principal methods for addressing policies, plans, programmes and projects
Levels
Policies Plans Programmes Projects
Environmental Impact
X
Assessment
Strategic Environmental
x X X
Assessment
Sustainability Appraisal
(an e.g. of a national X X
procedure)
Prospective Process
X X X X
through Scenarios
Table 3 shows the most common problems experienced in the LUDA cities against these
headings
Table 4 shows how frequently each type of problem occurred in the six LUDA cities. The
results show that the economic and urban structure problems are most frequent in the worst
affected areas of the six cities.
Table 5: Principal methods for addressing economic, social, environmental and urban
structure problems
Problems
Methods
Community Impact
x X x X
Evaluation
Cost benefit
X X X
analysis
Ecological Footprint X
Economic Impact
X
Assessment
Environmental
impact assessment X
(EIA)
Life cycle analysis X
Quality of Life
X X X X
Assessment
Social cost-benefit
X X X
analysis
Social Impact
X
Assessment
Strategic
Environmental X x
Assessment (SEA)
Sustainability
X X X X
Appraisal
Prospective
Process through X X X x
Scenarios (PPtS)
X: to a greater extent; x: to a lesser extent
The EUs environmental impact assessment directive [see also section 6.1.1], amended in
1997, stipulates that public authorities must involve stakeholders in assessment procedures.
A planning authority has to consider, first, whether a proposed project is likely to have a
significant effect on the environment. If so, the authority must ensure that the applicant
carries out an assessment and prepares and submits to the planning authority a report that
identifies, describes and assesses the effects that the project is likely to have on the
environment. The process is referred to as environmental impact assessment (EIA), the
report as the environmental statement (ES). Members of the public, and statutory consultees,
must be given the opportunity to comment on the ES.
EIA regulations do not require that stakeholders should be consulted about all urban
regeneration initiatives or applications for planning permission. In the main they apply to
large-scale developments where there is obvious potential for environment damage. But the
size of a project is not the only criterion. The key issue is whether a project is likely to have a
significant effect on the environment. Small-scale projects in, or close to, sensitive areas can
have effects just as damaging as those from large-scale development.
access to justice the right to challenge, in a court of law, public decisions that have
been made without respecting these previous two rights or environmental law in general.
Under the convention, arrangements have to be made by public authorities to enable citizens
and environmental organisations to comment on plans and programmes relating to the
environment and to proposals for projects affecting the environment. Information has to be
provided on the final decisions taken about these and the reasons for them.
The European Commission ratified the Aarhus Convention in February 2005. The status of
your countrys ratification of the convention can be found at www.unece.org/pp/ctreaty.htm.
Effective public participation in the taking of decisions is required to enable the public to
express, and decision-makers to take account of, opinions and concerns which may be
relevant to those decisions. This increases the accountability and transparency of the
decision-making process and contributes to public awareness of environmental issues and
support for the decisions taken. Reasonable time frames have to be provided allowing
sufficient time for each of the different stages of public participation required by the directive.
The public has to be informed - early in the environmental decision-making procedures and,
at the latest, as soon as information can reasonably be provided - of:
the request for development consent
the fact that the project is subject to an environmental impact assessment
details of the competent authorities responsible for taking the decision
the nature of the possible decisions
an indication of the availability of the information gathered
an indication of the times and places, where and means by which the relevant information
will be made available, and
details of the arrangements for public participation.
The public then has to be given early and effective opportunities to participate in the
environmental decision-making procedures. The public is entitled to express comments and
opinions when all options are open to the competent authority before the decision on the
request for development consent is taken. When a decision is made, the competent authority
has to inform the public of that decision. And, having examined the concerns and opinions
expressed by the public concerned, the main reasons on which the decision is based,
including information about the public participation process employed.
The directive does not specify precisely how public participation should occur. This is left up
to signatories. In the UK, for instance, the Regulatory Impact Unit of the Cabinet Office
published a Code of Practice on Consultation in January 2004,
http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/regulation/consultation/documents/pdf/code.pdf. The code
Stakeholder groups
Policy Planners Private Service Citizens
makers investors providers
Main methods
Community Impact
X X
Evaluation
Cost benefit
X X X
analysis
Ecological Footprint X X
Economic Impact
X X X
Assessment
Environmental
impact assessment X X X
(EIA)
Life cycle analysis
X X X
(LCA)
Multi-criteria
X X X
analysis (MCA)
Quality of Life
X X X X X
Assessment
Social cost-benefit
X X
analysis
Social Impact
X X X X
Assessment
Strategic
Environmental X X X X
Assessment (SEA)
Sustainability
X X X
Appraisal
Prospective
Process through X X X X X
Scenarios (PPtS)
It evidently also works best when communities are engaged across a range of services
strongly suggesting a need for public authorities to develop a strategic, across-the-board
approach. Successful community engagement requires:
It is vital that citizens and communities have the capacity and inclination to engage with the
public sector and organise themselves. Much more effort needs to be put into understanding
the skills and support that citizens need to engage effectively in urban regeneration. This is
particularly true for hard to reach groups that are currently least likely to be engaged.
Futures workshops are a particular type of meeting that follow a certain set of rules. During
the workshop, time is allocated for brainstorming, discussion, presentation, and sometimes
voting, with work usually shifting between plenary and group sessions. The workshop
environment is highly suited for open discussion and ensures that all participants get their
say so that all ideas can be tabled for debate. Work starts with a commonly recognised
problem and then looks for solutions to form the basis for visions aimed towards a final action
plan. These visions constitute a new bank of ideas and a basis for further discussion and
assessment among experts and politicians, and they can also be communicated to a broader
circle of citizens who are likely to be affected by the regeneration process (Andersen &
Jaeger, 2001).
Without doubt, a diversity of formats and approaches to futures workshops exists; the
Prospective Process through Scenarios approach, advocated by The Futures Academy,
DIT, is one such approach and is outlined in the Futures Workshops: A Handbook.
consensus-building;
inspiring and motivating people to act;
creating of a new forum for decision-making; and
encouraging greater citizen involvement and participation (Shipley & Newkirk, 1998).
When a wide range of actors are involved in these workshops, the multi-dimensional nature
of a problem can be approached with more knowledge, more broad-ranging experience and
more versatility in order to achieve results (Carter, 2000). Each actor or stakeholder group
comes with its own expertise and so contributes its experiences - a necessary feature of
workshops that contrasts with more conventional top-down approaches to participation and
community planning. Owing to the informal nature of futures workshops, it is often easier to
get people involved, particularly those hard to reach groups. This renders futures workshops
highly inclusive and consequently sparks peoples interest and engages them more readily
than other ways of working.
It is also important to ensure that local people are involved and included in futures
workshops; the original community should be encouraged to become actively involved. This
is particularly pertinent when discussing issues concerning local identity and core community
values, critical to the long-term success of regeneration. The exchange of professional
insight and users experience is critical to generate new knowledge. It does not simply suffice
to consult technical experts, but rather the inclusion of local actors is a must. Futures
workshops need to include a variety of social actors, from different places and sectors of
Scenarios are a powerful way of engaging policy makers, design consultants, community
workers and lay members of the public in thinking about the longer-term future of
neighbourhoods and towns. They offer an early opportunity for exploring possible futures in a
way that can help people to make leaps of the imagination, free from the burden of current
constraints, as well as to be clear about what their underlying motives and intentions are.
Scenarios can also be employed not just to clarify the range of hard choices available, but
the social, economic and environmental goals that drive these and their consequences.
When working with scenarios, it is important to make clear the range of different economic,
social and environmental choices that confront a community trying to regenerate itself.
Scenarios need to be constructed so that they give voice to all the types of stakeholder
involved and to illustrate the underlying motives and intentions, fears and aspirations of each
of these groups, regardless of their current power to impose their own preferred solutions.
For instance, it is important to employ scenarios that make explicit what is cherished in a
locality and what is seen as expendable.
Scenarios should be based on realistic but aspirational assumptions. They should also be
tested against a broad range of economic, social and environmental criteria. The objective
here is to find the scenario that performs robustly against all three criteria. And it is
necessary to be suspicious of any that performs well on some but badly on others.
Using scenarios can help keep the choices available to stakeholders open for longer. They
can also clarify the goals that lie behind these choices, and the means of achieving them.
Importantly, in urban regeneration, this can happen before goals become buried beneath
physical proposals in master plans and before funding begins. They can help untangle the
complexity of choices and delivery mechanisms holding them up for comparison, weighing
them against each other. Any option preferred by stakeholders can then be treated as a
desired end state. And backcasting techniques can be employed to identify what needs to be
put in place, by when, for this desired future to be brought about successfully.
As a result, scenarios are a useful mechanism for building consensus and for harnessing
conflicts so that they can be exploited positively. If this clarity is absent and plans push
ahead without community support, then there is a strong chance that a regeneration
programme will fail. If carefully selected, scenarios can be used to explore innovative
solutions and introduce a front-end contribution from developers - so often missing from
public sector-led regeneration initiatives. And, if they are well-chosen, scenarios can be used
to raise the issue of design quality that has yet to become part of the general currency
between stakeholders when negotiating urban futures.
The assessment process was outlined earlier in the handbook [see: section 5]: diagnosis,
visioning, programming, implementing and monitoring. The main actions involved at each
stage of the process are shown at the start of each sub-section. The actions highlighted in
blue are the most involved in terms of assessment; that is to say they require the use of
assessment methods outside the standard, generic techniques, such as expert judgement.
Futures methods and techniques can be used during diagnosis to encourage more
imaginative thinking into the planning process for sustainable urban regeneration and
encourage people to work together from the outset of the process towards a common goal or
vision.
They are particularly useful at this stage for undertaking the following three tasks:
1. Identify the Driving Forces of Change:
This task focuses on identifying a broad-ranging set of driving forces of change, in other
words, the forces driving or shaping the future in different directions. It is important not to
ignore seemingly less significant or hidden forces at play; critical thinking is crucial in
order to fully appreciate the dynamics that are potentially most relevant to the future.
Horizon Scanning: Horizon scanning is one of the most useful and well-known futures
techniques to use at this stage as it represents a suitable starting point for preliminary
research and data collection to identify and monitor emerging trends, issues and signals
of change in the external environment by undertaking a systematic review of literature
and other modes of communication.
The six sector approach is recommended as the most appropriate way to undertake
horizon scanning and it entails scanning or tracking information under each of the
following six sectors: social, demographic, economic, environmental, governance and
technological.
1. Under the following headings, identify what you think are the main issues and trends that could affect the
future over the next 20 years (Please note that some responses may overlap headings). Rate impact and
uncertainty on the scale where 1 = very high impact / uncertainty, 2 = high impact / uncertainty, 3 = low impact /
uncertainty, 4 = very low impact / uncertainty.
Level Likelihood
Main Issues & Trends of of
Impact Uncertainty
A. Society
(i)
(ii)
B. Demography
(i)
(ii)
C. Environment
(i)
(ii)
D. Economy
(i)
(ii)
E. Government
(i)
(ii)
Other methods and techniques that are useful for diagnosing LUDAs include:
Cross impact analysis: CIA can be used in support of horizon scanning and survey
questionnaires to help pinpoint the inevitable uncertainties surrounding the future that are
so often ignored or dismissed.
SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis: This technique can be
used at many stages of the process but is most effective at the diagnosis stage in
consolidating the drivers for change and assisting with the conception of problems and
potentials, i.e. weaknesses and opportunities. The main drivers for change provide a
framework within which SWOT analysis can be carried out, for instance in determining
the opportunities and threats of the economic position of the city/LUDA (Roberts and
Sykes, 2000).
Actions
Formulation of strategic objectives,
targets and indicators
Generation of alternatives (& scenarios)
Futures methods and techniques are vital to this stage of the process and the best way to
implement these is during a futures workshop. Workshops provide a fertile environment for
active participation and imaginative thinking, and they can be run very effectively for
problem-solving. Futures workshops can also help alleviate democratic deficits that might
exist within decision-making processes, by including a range of stakeholders that might not
ordinarily get the chance to contribute to the process and voice their opinions (Jungk &
Mullert, 1987). The following describes how such a workshop can be put into practice. First,
a brief outline of what needs to be done prior to the workshop is given.
Following preparation, the workshop can get under way. Almost any futures methods or
techniques can be implemented during futures workshops, however, the following are
described here: scenario development, wind tunnel testing and visioning.
1. Scenario Development
This step of the workshop usually involves developing and fleshing out three or more stories
or scenarios for each alternative generated. Scenarios are alternative images of the future
that portray possible future events or environments. Scenarios are not predictions of the
future but rather well-worked, vivid descriptions that resemble a set of stories to express
multiple perspectives of possible future events by taking into account critical uncertainties
about the future. Scenarios are powerful tools to enlighten and produce better policy and
strategy decisions by encouraging us to rehearse the future so that the readiness to act in
the face of uncertainty almost becomes second nature (Schwartz, 1998). The first part of
scenario development is to agree the axes (most usually illustrated in a matrix) that will
determine the basic characteristics or the building blocks from which the final scenarios will
eventually evolve. This lays the foundations for the scenarios by helping to produce the
logical rationale and framework for the scenarios. Agreeing the axes during the workshop
involves returning to the critical uncertainties and selecting which two might play prominent
roles in the future with interesting yet challenging outcomes. This can involve a long debate
between the participants, which should be chaired by the facilitator. Once the decision has
been reached, the two critical uncertainties should be crossed. Crossing two uncertainties in
a matrix gives rise to four possible scenarios. If the uncertainties have been chosen
intelligently, the quadrants should represent the most divergent futures.
Fleshing out the scenarios involves expanding and developing the scenario logics to produce
useful, coherent narratives about the future; the final scenarios. There is no correct way to
flesh out the scenarios, but there are a number of important guidelines that can be followed.
I. It is best to flesh out three or four differentiated scenarios to provide contrasting images
of what the future might hold.
II. The scenarios should consider the factors and actors outlined in Figure 9
Factors Actors
a beginning, a middle and an end state main players in the field of interest
an approximate time line large, small and traditional
stakeholders
key events that make things happen
new entrants
early indicators of change (signals that
the scenario is unfolding) what regulators are doing
a catchy name what society is demanding
III. The final scenarios created must be both coherent and creative. It is at this point that
the imagination should be let run riot; control comes later.
There are several ways this can be done during the workshop, although this is inevitably
up to the facilitator and/or the project manager to decide. Scenario formats vary to
include different kind of analogue methods such as:
a narrative story;
a slide set or powerpoint presentation;
a glossy leaflet or booklet;
a theatre play;
a news-script; and
a poem.
Once the policy measures have been formulated, testing them offers an understanding of the
intricate details of each, and how they might play out in the alternative future scenarios. It
essentially involves considering each policy measure within each scenario, how the decision
might look in each, what the implications might be and whether or not there are any
deficiencies. This stage is also known as the wind tunnel test (Ratcliffe, 2000).
3. Visioning
Producing a preferred future vision or prospective is the final step of the workshop. In fact, it
is usually only the basis or foundation of the prospective that is created during the workshop;
the remaining work takes place afterwards.
The preferred future vision yields best results once it has been created following the
completion of all previous steps discussed. Any deviation from the process as described here
would undoubtedly result in the creation of a premature vision, a vision created without
sufficient consultation or participative thinking. The combination of steps carried out during
the workshop to this point helps participants prepare effectively to create their preferred
future vision; the participants have learned to explore what the future might look like and how
this might impact on their environment, thereby gaining an insight and awareness about the
future that might not ordinarily have been achieved.
The vision is created during the workshop following an in-depth analysis of the alternative
scenarios created and the ideas and thoughts provoked by them. The scenarios help create
a clearer picture for the workshop participants of the elements they might want to include
(and/or omit) from their preferred future vision. The scenarios also help highlight areas of
future opportunity, as well as areas of future threat that render consideration when producing
the vision.
Implementation: It is important to remember that the process does not simply culminate on
the final day of the workshop but rather it is an ongoing process that has wider implications
beyond the event itself. It is vital to ensure that the results and outcomes of the workshop are
not produced in vain. They must be adequately addressed, documented and subsequently
worked through following the workshop so that implementation can be realised.
The different steps undertaken during the workshop all demand a high level of strategic
thinking, following which it is time to move to strategic planning. Traditionally, strategic
thinking has been separated from strategic planning, and quite deliberately so. The strength
in this separation is that it allows for creative and innovative thinking to take place without the
need to take real action. The obvious weakness in this approach is that imaginative thinking
becomes isolated as an event that takes place, during a workshop for example, without
follow up action by those with the relevant decision-making power. The power of futures
methods and techniques are that they provide a bridge or kind of scaffolding between
strategic thinking and strategic planning across which ideas and action can continue to pass.
Actions
Prepare plan / improvement programme
Predicting impacts
Evaluating alternatives
Impact mitigation
In terms of assessment and evaluation this stage is the most involved in the LUDA
improvement process, because the preferred vision has to be translated into a coherent set
of practical options, policies and proposals which make up the draft plan or what is
alternatively named improvement programme. These will include a number of physical,
social and environmental improvements and usually involve the design of a small number of
alternative scenarios, which then have to be evaluated in terms of their positive and negative
impacts. The application of design principles through development of a masterplan plus a
design guide including cost planning is important at this stage of the process. To select
between various alternatives involves the continuation of methods such as cost-benefit
analysis employed earlier in the process.
Once the alternative scenarios have been designed and proposals put into place it is then
necessary to identify changes to the baseline environment that are predicted to arise from
the plan, programme and/or proposed alternatives. This will involve describing these
changes in terms of their magnitude, geographical scope, time-scale, and likelihood of each
impact. Impact assessment methods will be employed at this stage, such as environmental
impact assessment and social impact assessment, as well as those that were initiated earlier
in the process. Prediction techniques such as GIS and conceptual models will be useful for
Back to Table of Contents 38
LUDA Compendium
Sustainable urban regeneration and its assessment
identifying environmental effects, particularly cumulative effects resulting from small, often
indirect impacts.
The next action will involve taking the objective predictions and making an evaluation about
whether these impacts are significant. This will usually continue the involvement of the said
impact assessment methods, as well as qualitative assessments, such as Quality of Life
assessment which is particularly concerned with who wins and who looses under the
strategic action. The evaluation of alternatives will often include their comparison using the
indicators and objectives developed earlier in the process. This comparison is typically done
in a matrix format with the alternatives along one axis and the indicators along the other.
Where the decision relating to the alternative is more complex, multi-criteria methods may be
employed, such as regime analysis, analytic hierarchy process, flag model and concordance
analysis, which take into account a number of different factors, based on scoring and
weighting techniques. The outcome will be the preferred alternative(s) to be taken forward
into the improvement action plan.
The impact mitigation sub-stage aims to minimize any negative impacts, optimize any
positive ones and enhance sustainability in other ways if possible. The end result should be a
list of agreed measures to change the strategic action change where relevant and/or set a
context for future projects. These may include changes to the wording of the strategic action,
the addition of new components and requirements to substitute or offset for certain types of
impacts. Proposing mitigation measures involves flexibility and timing rather than any
particular set of techniques, although expert judgement would be useful at this point in the
process (Therivel, 2004).
Once the preferred alternative(s) has been chosen and mitigation measures identified, the
environmental/sustainability report should be prepared. This will include the likely significant
effects on the environment and people of implementing the plan, and reasonable alternatives
taking into account the objectives and geographical scope of the plan (EC, 2001). In essence
the environmental/sustainability report should bring together the findings of the process thus
far.
Actions
Improvement action plan
Implementation of key projects
Implementation is clearly the most significant and most active stages when it comes to the
rehabilitation process but the least involved in evaluation terms. This stage involves
implementing a number of projects, such as physical rehabilitation of land and buildings as
well as social and economic measures such as educational or skills development and
business start-up measures. The detailed impact of each project has to be evaluated using
the techniques already mentioned in the last stage, particularly environmental impact
assessment and social impact assessment.
A draft improvement action plan should be drawn up according to the preferred alternative(s).
At this point the proposed mitigation measures will be put into place in order to reconcile or
integrate multiple objectives. Methods such ass project impact assessment can help with this
particular activity. The improvement action plan will ensure that the strategic action is
implemented in the most sustainable manner possible and include priority actions, critical
mass for take-off and monitoring requirements. The environmental / sustainability report and
the draft action plan should be made available to the public and authorities as part of the
overall consultation process. The consultation results should be taken into account when
finalising the action plan / programme.
The designation and prioritisation of key projects will be carried out by stakeholders who will
decide on the organisation of responsibilities to implement the chosen activities / projects;
expert judgement will therefore be crucial at this stage. The feedback of the results of the
implementation, coupled with the ongoing process of strategic environmental assessment will
determine the longer-term success of projects and the overall programme.
Actions
Evaluation of indicators
Remedial action
Evaluation of good practice and lessons learnt
Monitoring and evaluating urban regeneration is a crucial task. In fact often the availability of
financial support is dependant upon the provision of an acceptable structure for monitoring
and evaluation. Monitoring and evaluation should occur throughout the process, both in
terms of assessing changes to the baseline environment and making judgements about what
has been achieved. However, the most significant stage of monitoring and evaluation occurs
after the implementation of programmes and projects when the necessary physical, social
and economic actions have been put into place. It is at this point that evaluators will be able
to determine the extent to which the programme or project achieves the set objectives and
targets, and assess changes in quality of life, whether positive or detrimental (Roberts &
Sykes, 2000). Monitoring can also be used to support the selection of alternative projects or
measures, by assessing their probable impacts on defined goals.
Monitoring system:
A suitable monitoring system which assesses changes to the quality of life of LUDA should
be devised. The monitoring system should be based on a set of indicators which takes into
account the objectives and indicators devised earlier in the LUDA improvement process. The
fields used to categorise the indicators may be based on literature search, the main
objectives of the programme and/or emerging perspectives which attempt to define and
assess quality of life, e.g. LUDA Diamond of Quality of Life [see Handbook 1, section 4]. The
information collected in respect of the indicators can be quantitative or qualitative in nature.
The latter involves obtaining subjective views, for instance, by carrying out surveys of local
people in order to ascertain the level of satisfaction regarding their own quality of life and
their residential area (Porto City Council, 2004). All information collected should be
compared with the data collected at incremental stages throughout the process, most notably
with data relating to the baseline environment (diagnosis). The basic assumption is that any
value of monitoring that takes place after project implementation should not be worse than
the baseline value (SIDA, 2002). In essence, post-implementation monitoring should show
Table 8 [below] shows a possible format for a monitoring programme. This includes possible
actions to reduce impacts if they emerge (Therivel, 2004). It should therefore be treated as a
development of the monitoring system and as a form of mitigation.
Objective What to Who provides How often? At what point What could be
monitor the data? should done if a
additional problem is
action be identified?
considered?
Protect Condition of Planners Every 2 years Condition gets Consider ways
biodiversity at designated worse of improving
ecosystem sites and other biodiversity
and genetic sites of nature protection and
levels conservation enhancement,
importance eg provision of
wildlife
corridors
Protect human Number of Police Annual Any of these Improvements
health and accidents per gets 10% to pedestrian
amenity person- worse and cycling
kilometre facilities, traffic
travelled by calming, new
car, foot, bike road layout to
reduce
accidents
Promote % children Environ- Every 2 years 10% decrease Liaise with
positive walking or mental health cycling officer;
health-related cycling to authority (or establish
behaviour school similar body) walking and
cycling routes
Source: (Therivel, 2004, p. 180)
Monitoring and evaluating LUDA is problematic because the scope of assessment often lies
outside the boundary of LUDA, i.e. in terms of measuring cumulative impacts. Moreover
LUDA is complex in the sense that it may constitute one part of a wider administrative
boundary or LUDA may cut across more than one administrative area. In essence
quantitative and statistical data may not be available at the level of LUDA which poses a
challenge for effective monitoring and evaluation.
reducing unemployment
improving and developing the skills of employed people
investing in industrial or rural areas which are in decline
investing in areas with low economic development
ESF support is available between 2000 and 2006 under the current EU regulations. Each
ESF Objective targets clearly defined policy aims, priorities and measures for support.
Further information is available from the governments of member states, see, for instance:
www.eurofundingnw.org.uk
Projects submitted for ESF funding are scored, appraised and selected through competitive
bidding by government offices in the member states responsible for managing the process.
To be successful a project must at least:
add value (in other words, would not take place or would be less effective without ESF
support)
meet the more specific targets and requirements of the appropriate Regional
Development Plan, Single Programming Document or Operational Plan
ESF pays for a proportion (usually 45%) of a project's costs. The remaining amount (usually
55%) is known as match funding. Both public and private can be used for match funding but
at least 10% must be provided by a public authority.
A region may have access to one or more of the four structural funds, depending whether it
has Objective 1 or 2 status. Objective 1 aims to develop regions that are currently under-
developed. Objective 2 aims to renew industrial, urban, rural and fisheries areas that are in
decline. For Objective 1 and Objective 2 a Single Programming Document (SPD) has been
developed for each eligible region. Each SPD is a plan that sets out the specific priorities and
key target groups for ESF support in that region. Objective 1 status is the highest form of
Structural Fund aid for the economically and socially 'lagging' regions in the European Union.
Objective 1 funding can be used by regions to develop economic regeneration strategies for
improving their economic performance and for combating their entrenched pockets of social
disadvantage. Objective 2 funding is available to support the economic and social conversion
of areas facing structural difficulties. Areas qualify for Objective 2 under four strands -
industrial, rural, urban and fisheries.
The progress and outcomes of ESF-funded projects have to be evaluated. The UK, for
instance, has an ESF Evaluation Team whose overarching aim is to ensure that all structural
fund programmes in the UK carry out an effective evaluation of the ESF interventions which
both satisfies the information needs of programme managers, partners, the European
Commission and provides information for the UKs National Action Programme. Guidance
documents are provided for ESF projects on monitoring outcomes and distance travelled,
see, for instance, http://www.esf.gov.uk/evaluation/documents.asp. The UKs ESF Evaluation
Team recommends that evaluation should include (Lloyd & OSullivan, 2002).
a scoring system.
a baseline used to assess progress.
a system for reporting results.
training for staff using the system (to ensure quality control and consistency).
Public Private Partnership (PPP) is a form of collaboration or joint endeavour between the
public and private sectors for the purposes of implementing a project, whereby the
resources, strengths and capabilities of each are brought together and the risks and
responsibilities are allocated rationally between both sectors. The ability of urban distressed
There are a number of recognised challenges facing the EU and its member states if PPPs
are to be incorporated effectively into the regeneration context including:
1. There is an overall lack of understanding regarding the PPP phenomenon in the EU.
At present, the term PPP is not clearly defined at Community level posing major
legislative challenges and having an impact on the uptake of PPPs in the
regeneration process. Further legal clarification is therefore required.
2. For PPPs to be effectively established within the regeneration context, there must first
be the institutional capacity and a sufficient enabling environment for their promotion
and coordination at the national level (Price Waterhouse Coopers, 2004).
3. The lack of PPP policies amongst many European cities may also be attributed to the
complex nature of infrastructure project finance requiring substantial resources (both
human and capital), which many local authorities simply do not have. Consequently,
negotiating with their counterparts in the private sector (typically far better resourced)
can prove very challenging (UNECE, 2004).
4. Although the potential exists, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the
development and expansion of PPPs through co-financing with structural funding,
and thus, a lack of integration of EU regional funds and PPPs. This topic is as yet,
under-developed and requires further clarification (EC, 2003). Perhaps what is
holding back the development of such co-financing structures is the sheer complexity
involved in combining the separate requirements of PPPs and EU funding in one
project structure and procurement and within the context of national public sector
procurement requirements (Price Waterhouse Coopers, 2004).
While there is an interest in PPPs in all member states, experience of PPP procurement is
limited. The UK stands out as having the longest and most substantial experience of PPPs,
having well-developed PPP programmes. Figure 10 [below] provides a summary of PPP
activity in Europe by country and sector (Price Waterhouse Coopers, 2004).
8.2.3 Conclusion
Public private partnerships are being strongly endorsed by the EU as the answer to financing
problems in urban regeneration projects and as an appropriate mechanism to deliver much
needed services where there is a lack of public funding. Although there are significant
challenges holding back the integration of PPPs in urban regeneration projects, the reality is
that for most European countries, some form of PPP/PFI is likely to emerge as the principle
means of providing public services in the absence of adequate public sector funding (Price
Waterhouse Coopers, 2004). It is at the member state level that prime responsibility lies for
the development of PPP policies, however, it must be recognised that the EU has a crucial
role in assisting and influencing the development and procurement process.
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IOER
Weberplatz 1,
01217 Dresden,
Germany
Tel. + 49 351 4679 0
Fax. + 49 351 4679 212
luda-team@ioer.de
For further information about the LUDA project, contact the coordination team at
IOER, or visit the project web-site: www.luda-project.net
LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage
from the programme Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development within
the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Union. Contract Nr. EVK4 CT
2002 - 00081