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2014
Executive Summary
• Direct Product Profit (DPP) is much more valuable than GMROI for
measuring the financial results of individual items, merchandise categories or
departments.
• GMROI has the advantage of being easy to understand and easy to use.
These advantages are not enough to offset the inadequacies in the ratio.
The opinions expressed in this white paper are those of the Profit Planning
Group. No other entity should be rewarded or penalized for those opinions.
Saying Goodbye to GMROI
The enthusiasm for GMROI rests upon the fact that it allows firms to make
inventory decisions from a return on investment perspective. That is, just as the
firm can use Return on Assets or Return on Equity to measure total company
performance, GMROI can be used to measure subsets of the firm.
The reality is that despite its widespread use, GMROI is a seriously flawed metric
on which to base decisions. It actually produces some biased financial results
which can lead to bad decisions and ineffective actions. Simply put, while
GMROI does calculate return on investment, it does so incorrectly.
This white paper will discuss four different aspects of the GMROI issue:
In many instances firms are not actually using GMROI even though they may
utilize the term. These firms are using a closely-related concept called the Turn
and Earn Ratio. It is useful to understand both ratios before beginning to evaluate
their efficacy.
While GMROI (and Turn and Earn) are used mostly to evaluate individual SKUs
or departments, it is easiest to understand by examining an entire company. That
is done in Exhibit 1. The results presented there are for a representative
distributor. It should be kept in mind that distributors come in all sizes and with
widely varying operating parameters. However, everything that is said about the
firm in Exhibit 1 will be true of all distributors.
Exhibit 1
Total Firm Performance
For a Sample Firm
The exhibit presents a simplified income statement and a partial balance sheet.
The highlights are that the firm generates $20.0 million in revenue, operates on a
gross margin of 25.0% of revenue and brings $500,000 to the bottom line on a
pre-tax basis, or 2.5% of sales.
The firm has $6.25 million invested in assets. Of that total, $2.5 million, or 40.0%
of its total investment is in inventory. Managing inventory should be an essential
component of improving overall profitability.
At the total firm level, return on investment is often measured via Return on
Assets (ROA). For the sample company, the ROA is 8.0%. That is, the firm
generated $500,000 in pre-tax profit on an investment of $6.25 million.
GMROI takes the same sort of return on investment philosophy. However, since
it is designed to be utilized at the SKU level, it necessitates some shortcuts. The
return component is simply gross margin dollars. All of the expenses associated
with the item are ignored. On the investment side, inventory replaces total assets
in the GMROI computation.
For the sample firm, there is $5.0 million in gross margin. As stated previously,
inventory is $2.5 million. The GMROI equation is then gross margin divided by
inventory or either $2.00 or 200.0% (both methods of presentation are used).
What this means is that the firm generates $2.00 in gross margin for each dollar
invested in inventory.
The Turn and Earn Ratio is slightly more involved. In it, Inventory Turnover (Turn
Component) is multiplied times the Gross Margin Percentage (Earn Component)
to get a slightly different return on investment measure. It is a number that has no
absolute meaning only a relative one.
Inventory turnover for the sample company is 6.0 times. This is Cost of Goods
Sold divided by Average Inventory ($15.0 million divided by $2.5 million). When
the gross margin of 25.0% is multiplied by the inventory turnover of 6.0 times, a
Turn and Earn of 150.0% results.
The fact that 200.0% and 150.0% are not the same number is nothing more than
a minor irritant. In both calculations there are two essential ideas underlying the
GMROI (or Turn and Earn) philosophy. First, higher is better than lower. Second,
the firm has two tools at hand to increase the GMROI—increase the gross
margin percentage or turn the inventory faster.1
1
The continual use of phrase “GMROI or Turn and Earn” becomes tedious quickly. To speed the
narrative, GMROI will be used to denote both ratios unless a distinction really needs to be made.
• Two-Pronged Tool—GMROI allows firms to make decisions regarding
whether the best way to improve GMROI is to increase the gross margin
percentage or the inventory turnover ratio. This gives management two
different profitability levers, or two parts of one tool, to use as competitive
circumstances permit.
Absolute Yardstick
GMROI is one of the few measures for which it is virtually impossible to set a
precise goal. This doesn’t stop firms from setting goals, of course. All sorts of
firms have GMROI goals of 150%, 200% or even higher. Items that don’t reach
this target level are viewed with suspicion.
As a result of the inability to set a meaningful goal, about the only thing that can
be said about GMROI as an absolute ratio is that higher is better than lower. If
the SKU with a 100.0% GMROI can be turned into one with a 150.0% GMROI,
then things are moving in the right direction.
Dangers in Aggregation—Even the “higher is better than lower” rule has some
limitations. It really should only be applied to individual SKUs within a very
narrow merchandise classification. When the rule is expanded to compare
different items, the lack of expense analysis becomes a serious issue rather
quickly. This is because SKUs in different merchandise categories almost
certainly have different cost structures associated with them. GMROI is blissfully
ignorant of this issue.
The more different SKUs are aggregated, the more the “higher is better than
lower” rule is called into question. Within a narrowly defined merchandise
category, such as screwdrivers, items will tend to have somewhat similar costs.
As a result, an item with a high GMROI is most likely truly more profitable than
one with a low GMROI, although there is no absolute certainty of that.
When the level of aggregation reaches up to the department level, the ratio really
has no value at all. Some departments consist of items that are expensive to sell
and require costly support. Other departments may have items with very low
sales costs and requiring almost no support. A department with a high GMROI
may or may not be more profitable than one with a low GMROI. Comparisons
across departments with GMROI should not be made.
Two-Pronged Tool
Looking across a wide range of SKUs within a distribution organization, it's soon
obvious that gross margin and inventory turnover are inversely correlated. While
the relationship is far from perfect, it is pronounced. The SKUs with high gross
margins tend to have low inventory turnover rates and vice versa.
With the two components, management can begin to make decisions about how
the GMROI on different SKUs can be increased. Again, management has a two-
pronged tool (or two financial levers) to work with in improving GMROI for every
SKU—generating a higher gross margin percentage or a higher rate of inventory
turnover.
2% More
Current Gross 2% Less
Income Statement Results Margin Inventory
Net Sales 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000
Cost of Goods Sold 15,000,000 14,900,000 15,000,000
Gross Margin 5,000,000 5,100,000 5,000,000
ICC (20.0%) 500,000 500,000 490,000
All Other Expenses 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000
Total Expenses 4,500,000 4,500,000 4,490,000
Profit Before Taxes 500,000 600,000 510,000
On the income statement, total expenses have been broken into two categories.
The first is the Inventory Carrying Cost (ICC). This is all the costs of maintaining
inventory, including interest, property taxes, insurance, obsolescence and
shrinkage. These are assumed to be 20.0% of the value of the inventory.2
The partial balance sheet has been replaced by a memo item for inventory.
Nothing else on the investment side will matter in this discussion.
In the 2.0% More Gross Margin column, sales remain $20.0 million, while the
gross margin dollars increase from $5.0 million to $5.1 million, a 20.0% rise. The
expenses remain the same and the $100,000 of additional gross margin goes
right to the bottom line.
In the 2.0% Less Inventory column the first item to note is that the inventory has
declined from $2.5 million to $2.45 million ($2.5 million time 98.0%). The decline
is $50,000. The profit implication is that Inventory Carrying Costs will decline by
$10,000.
While 2.0% more margin increased profit by $100,000, 2.0% less inventory only
increased profit by $10,000. It is a 10.0 to 1.0 ratio. The two levers assumed to
2
A 20.0% ICC is a common figure, so it is used here. For most distributors the figure should be
substantially lower.
be equally potent in the GMROI calculation have a very different impact on the
bottom line.
All of this says nothing about the ability to actually make the changes, of course.
All such financial analysis can do is indicate what would happen if specific
changes could be made.
Computational Bias
The theory behind GMROI remains commendable. It would be nice to measure
the return on investment for individual items. The operational problem with
GMROI is that the computations involved tend to produce a very distorted picture
of that return. Higher may not really be better. It may only be higher. The
problem starts with inventory turnover.
Inventory turnover measures the speed with which a firm continues to sell its
inventory for a specific item or group of items. The term turnover means how
many times during the year that the firm sells the equivalent of its inventory. A
turnover of 12.0 times, for example, would mean that every month the firm sells
as much merchandise as it has on hand.
Despite its widespread use, turnover really isn’t a very good ratio for analyzing
inventory performance. The problem with turnover is reviewed Exhibit 3. The
exhibit presents the merchandising results for two SKUs, Item A and Item B.
Exhibit 3
Merchandising Results for
Two Different SKUs
Item A Item B
Before getting too deep into Exhibit 3, assume that only two things are known
about the items. First, they both have an inventory investment of $10,000.
Second, Item A generates sales of $50,000 and Item B does just slightly better
and generates sales of $55,000. At this point, absent anything else, Item B looks
better. For the same level of investment, Item B generates more sales volume.
The additional information shown in Exhibit 3 makes the analysis a little more
complex and a lot more interesting. Item A appears to be a price-sensitive item,
with a gross margin of only 15.0%. In contrast, Item B is a much higher gross
margin item, coming in at 30.0%. If Item B has slightly more sales, a substantially
higher gross margin percentage and the same inventory, then nobody should
really need a financial ratio to know that Item B is more desirable.
However, this is where the bias in inventory turnover comes into play in dramatic
fashion. In trying to evaluate inventory productivity, the inventory turnover ratio
suggests that Item A is superior to Item B.
Specifically, Item A produces a turnover of 4.3 times versus only 3.9 times for
Item B. The reason is that inventory turnover does not measure how effective an
item is in generating sales in relationship to its inventory. Instead, it measures
how much cost of goods sold is produced on each dollar of inventory.
This means that anytime two items have the same sales and same inventory
investment, the item with the lower gross margin percentage will always have a
higher rate of inventory turnover. The low gross margin item is not performing
better, it is simply being credited with performing better.
To get a feel for how GMROI is biased, it is necessary to move to Exhibit 4 and
move to Items C, D and E. As the exhibit indicates, these three items all have
identical sales levels. However, they are very different in terms of both their gross
margin and inventory investment.
Exhibit 4
GMROI Results for Three SKUs
Percent of Sales
Net Sales 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %
Cost of Goods Sold 70.0 75.0 80.0
Gross Margin 30.0 25.0 20.0
GMROI 200.0 % 200.0 % 200.0 %
Turn & Earn (GM% x Turnover) 140.0 % 150.0 % 160.0 %
Item D in the middle has been designated as Typical. It has a gross margin of
25.0% and an inventory turnover of 6.0 times. This means that Item D really is
exactly typical. As noted before, the total firm also has a gross margin of 25.0%
and turns its inventory 6.0 times per year. Item D is a microcosm of the total firm.
For firms using the Turn & Earn variation of GMROI, Exhibit 3 points clearly at
Item C as an elimination opportunity as its T&E is only 140.0%. However, Item C
actually produces the most gross margin dollars of the three items shown.
At the other extreme, Item E with the highest T & E would be designated as a
superstar item. It is the sort of item that management might want to emphasize in
its marketing programs. The firm would try to sell all it can to enjoy the benefits of
the item’s great T&E Ratio. Realistically, though, emphasizing Item E is not just a
problem, it is a threat to the firm’s profitability.
With the pure GMROI calculation, all three items are equal. Each one has a
200.0% GMROI. One item would not be favored over another. However, even
this analysis is somewhat misleading.
Making the gigantic leap that all three items have about the same cost structure
(they are all in the same, narrow merchandise category), then Item E could very
well be underwater. Item E produces a 20.0% gross margin but incurs expenses
of 22.5%. From a GMROI perspective, Item E is just as good as the other items.
From a T&E perspective it should be emphasized in sales efforts. From a profit
perspective, though, the more the firm sells of Item E, the more it will lose.
In Exhibit 5, the company is considering two options for Item D, the typical item
that was first introduced in Exhibit 3. Item D is already a reasonable GMROI item,
but management has decided to make it more glamorous.
Exhibit 5
Two Profitability Options for a Single SKU
The first column of numbers in Exhibit 5 shows Item D where it is now. The last
two columns have two options for improvement. One option on the table is to
reduce the inventory by 10.0%, the other is to increase the margin dollars by
10.0%. At this point, don’t worry about how either of these actions will be
accomplished, or even if they can be accomplished. Focus solely on the profit
and GMROI results that are produced if the two plans come to fruition.
The Total Product Profit (TPP) of this change is the gross margin for the item
plus any costs savings that arise from management actions. Since no other costs
are known for this item, TPP is the best measure of profitability available. With
the inventory reduction the TPP is now $12,625 (the gross margin of $12,500
which is unchanged plus the $125 in cost savings) versus the $12,500
previously.
In the final column the gross margin dollars are increased by 10.0%. To keep the
exhibit simple, sales are held constant and the gross margin improvement is
assumed to come from more advantageous buying. The result is that the TPP
from a gross margin improvement is $13,750.
In short, there is a much larger profit impact from increasing gross margin than
there is from reducing the level of inventory. The two profit levers in the GMROI
model are not even close to equal.
GMROI will always make low gross margin items look better than they are and
make high gross margin items look worse than they are. It will also almost always
make actions that produce small profit improvements look good and actions that
make large profit improvements look bad. It is a serious limitation that impact
inventory investment decisions daily.
Exhibit 6 shows the world as it existed when GMROI was first invented. If a
distributor's firm looks like this, then GMROI is an avant garde tool. Use it and
reap the rewards.
GMROI was developed in the department store industry in the years before
World War II. It was designed as a profit tool in an era when data processing, as
it is now known, was a figment of imagination. Consequently, it was designed to
be as simple and easy to calculate as possible. As an added bonus, it was also
relatively easy to understand.
Exhibit 6
DPP measures the actual dollar profit that is being generated by every SKU,
every merchandise category, every department or even every vendor. Unlike
GMROI, its value is not diminished as items are aggregated. It moves the firm
into an era of much greater sophistication and much greater precision. However,
precision comes at a cost.
GMROI, despite its myriad problems, is elegantly designed. It involves one, easy
to comprehend, return on investment number. It combines this with two, easy to
identify, ways to improve results. There is no confusion about what is being
measured or how to go about making the number better.
Exhibit 7 is designed to reflect the complexity that DPP entails. The exhibit
continues the relentless march through the alphabet to Items F and G. Item F is a
tonnage product that generates lots of sales, but a paucity of profit. Item G is a
classic niche item with minimum sales and strong profits. Item G, despite its
lower sales volume, actually produces more dollar profit than Item F.
Exhibit 7
A Direct Product Profit Analysis for Two SKUs
Item F Item G
DPP Analysis Dollars Percent Dollars Percent
Net Sales $20,000 100.0 % 5,000 100.0 %
Cost of Goods Sold 15,000 75.0 3,500 70.0
Gross Margin 5,000 25.0 1,500 30.0
Direct Expenses
Inventory Carrying Costs 500 2.5 150 3.0
Commissions 600 3.0 150 3.0
Stocking Costs 100 0.5 20 0.4
Order Picking Costs 300 1.5 50 1.0
Order Processing Costs 50 0.3 15 0.3
Total Direct Expenses 1,550 7.8 385 7.7
Direct Profit Profit 3,450 17.3 1,115 22.3
Assigned Overhead (% of Sales) 3,200 16.0 800 16.0
Profit Before Taxes $250 1.3 % $315 6.3 %
While Exhibit 7 presents a more complex world than does GMROI, it also
demonstrates the two major advantages of DPP. First, goals can be set. Second,
the firm is no longer limited to two financial levers. Instead, there are numerous
attack points with the potential to improve results.
The complexity of DPP is most apparent on the expense side. This particular
analysis incorporates five specific expense items. Depending upon the approach
used, DPP may look at three to seven different expense factors.
When the work associated with improving one SKU is multiplied by 10,000 SKUs,
the complexity becomes almost unimaginable. Gaining precision at the expense
of simplicity is a trade-off that many managers will not enjoy. Increased training
may be required. In some instances, the replacement of some of the buying staff
may be necessary.
The key issue is the extent to which imprecision should be tolerated simply
because it is easy to understand. DPP makes life decidedly more complex, but it
increases the power to understand profit at the item level exponentially. It also
allows such understanding at every level of the firm, all the way from individual
SKUs through entire departments. It can also be applied as a tool for working
with merchandise supplier.
However, as individual firms begin to use DPP, they now have a much more
powerful set of tools at hand. Those tools are unbiased, allow for setting of goals
and can be used throughout the firm. DPP has the potential to provide a major
competitive advantage.