SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.957065402
R Square 0.915974183
Adjusted R Square 0.903970495
Standard Error 12.85758377
Observations 9

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 12615 12615 76.30772924 5.1771865E-05
Residual 7 1157.222222222 165.3174603
Total 8 13772.22222222

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 593.0555556 9.3408180495 63.49075128 6.316226E-11 570.968030666
X Variable 1 14.5 1.6599069267 8.735429539 5.177186E-05 10.5749438257
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
615.1430804 570.96803067 615.14308045
18.42505617 10.574943826 18.425056174
 Demand Forecasting
Exponential Smoothening
Period Demand Forecast Error % error
1 600
2 640 600 40 6.25%
3 625 624.99998756 1.24448981750902E-05 0.00% 700
4 630 624.99999533 5.0000046668 0.79%
5 610 628.12499669 18.1249966943 2.97% 680
6 635 616.7968794 18.2031206005 2.87%
660
7 660 628.17382411 31.8261758886 4.82%
8 680 648.06517414 31.9348258601 4.70% 640
9 660 668.02443037 8.0244303668 1.22%
10 663.00916388 19.1391958153 2.95% 620
Mean Absolute Deviation Mean Absolute % error
Measure of Accuracy 600

580

560
0

Regression
Period Demand Forecast
1 600 R2 - Trend effect or due to Regression. Is % of variation explained (due to Regre
2 640 Significance F - < 0.05
3 625 t value for 95% 2.3060041352 Tolerance
4 650
5 680
6 660
7 700
8 710
9 725
10 738.0556

Estimated Demand for period 10 767.7051968903 Max

708.4059142208 Min
 Alfa - % trend 0.625

700

680

660

640
Demand
620 Forecast

600

580

560
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

explained (due to Regression)

29.6496413347
period Demand Forecast Abs Error
1 600 603.2384 3.2384
2 640 640.7236 0.7236
3 670 668.1656 1.8344
4 690 685.5644 4.4356
5 700 692.92 7.08
6 690 690.2324 0.2324 Demand
7 670 677.5016 7.5016
720
8 640 654.7276 14.7276
700
9 635 621.9104 13.0896
680 f(x) = - 5.0216450216x^2 + 52.5497835498x +
10 579.05 5.873689 R² = 0.9386765297
660
640
620
600
580
560
540
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 Demand 750

700

216450216x^2 + 52.5497835498x + 555.7142857143

765297 650
Demand
Demand
Polynomial (Demand)
Forecast
600

550

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 500
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999021392
R Square 0.998043742
Adjusted R Square 0.997717699
Standard Error 5.849785473
Observations 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 104750.1 104750.1 3061.081 2.34E-09
Residual 6 205.3199 34.21999
Total 7 104955.5

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1185.699405 6.221027 190.5954 1.41E-12 1170.477 1200.922 1170.477 1200.922
X Variable 1 49.94047619 0.902641 55.32703 2.34E-09 47.73179 52.14916 47.73179 52.14916
Upper 95.0%
 Demand Forecasting
Period
Quarter Demand Deseasonalize Reg Line Ratio Seasonality Index Forecast
1 1000 1235.64 0.809297 0.8556316572 1057.252599
2 1220 1285.58 0.948988 0.9608560349 1235.257644
3 1600 1336.25 1335.521 1.198034 1.17438835 1568.420108
4 1400 1390 1385.461 1.010494 0.9802209758 1358.058237
5 1250 1437.5 1435.402 0.870836 1228.175209
6 1400 1481.25 1485.342 0.942544 1427.200076
7 1800 1525 1535.283 1.172422 1803.018162
8 1550 1583.75 1585.223 0.97778 1553.869046
9 1450 1642.5 1635.164 0.886761 1399.097818
10 1670 1686.25 1685.104 0.991037 1619.142508
11 2000 1735.045 1.152708 2037.616215
12 1700 1784.985 0.952389 1749.679855
13 1834.926 1570.020428
14 1884.866 1811.08494
15 1934.807 2272.214269
16 1984.747 1945.490664
 2500

2000
Intercept 1185.699
X Variable 49.94048
1500
2500

1000
2000

1500 500

2500
1000 De
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 De
16
2000 500

0
1500 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Axis Title

1000

500

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Demand
Deseasonalize
Reg Line

Demand
6 8 10 12 14 Deseasonalize
16 18

10 12 14
Demand
Deseasonalize
Reg Line
Forecast

10 12 14 16 18
 Sugar Data
in Hotel Annual Demand 12000 Kg/Annum
Design ordering system Price 45 Rs/Kg
Ordering Cost 1600 Per Order
Inventory Carrying Cost 25%
Lead time 16 Days
service level 90%
At a time Inventory carrying Annual Total Cost
cost per year ordering cost
100 562.5 192000 192562.5
500 2812.5 38400 41212.5 Place 6 orders in a year qty 1850 each
1500 8437.5 12800 21237.5
1800 10125.0 10666.7 20791.7 ROL 526.0274
1850 10406.3 10378.4 20784.6 555.4202
2000 11250 9600 20850
3000 16875 6400 23275 Order 1850 when ever stock comes down to 555
6000 33750 3200 36950
12000 67500 1600 69100
EOQ 1847.521 6.495191

12950
 Data
Annual Demand 12000 Kg/Annum
Design ordering system Price 45 Rs/Kg
for Hotel Ordering Cost 1500 Per Order
Inventory Carrying Cost 25%
Lead time 16 Days
service level 90%
Consumption in lead time 526.0274
Max Level Period p 54.41099 When to order
Periodic consumption 1788.854
2314.882
Max level 2376.541
Safety Stock 61.65957

S.No Max Level Stock in Hand Ordering Qty

1 2375 0 2375
2 2375 567 1808
3 2375
4 2375
5 2375
6 2375
7 2375
 EOQ 1788.854

n 6.708204

When to order Place order every 54 or 55 days

 Mall replenishment ordering policy for mall
Mall has 20,000 items

Ordering Cost 1500

Inventory Carrying cost 25%
Service Level 90%

Stock. No Description Annual Demand Price Lead Time

1 Rice olam surti no.1 9000 70 15
2 Rice Basmati - Kohinoor 3000 150 18
3 Sunflower Oil - Godrej Gold 1 Ltr Pack 6000 110 12
4 Thil Oil Hyudayam - 1 Ltr 1500 245 21
5 Pepsodine 200 gm pack 3000 70 18
6
7
8

20000
Daily Consumption Lead Time Consumption EOQ Reorder Level Number of Orders Period
25 375 1242 400 8 46
8 144 490 159 7 52
16 192 809 210 8 46
4 84 271 96 6 61
8 144 717 159 5 73
Period Consumptions Period + Lead consumption Max. Level
1150 1525 1575
416 560 590
736 928 967
244 328 351
584 728 763