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Number Required
Units Sold of Days x f(x) Conditions
0 80 0 .40 are:
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
f(x) > 0
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
f(x) = 1
200 1.00
Discrete Probability Distributions
.50
.40
_____________
.30
.20
.10
0 1 2 3 4
-_____________________________
Discrete Probability Distribution
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution
is the simplest example of a discrete
probability distribution given by a formula
The discrete uniform probability function
is:
the values of the
f(x) = 1/n random variable
are equally likely
where:
n = the number of values the random
variable may assume
Uniform Discrete Probability
Distribution
Let X be the random variable that equals
the number of dots facing upward on a
rolled die.
f(x) = 1/n
How many outcome are there?
6
So f(x) = _____ where x =
___________
Probability of any event: Equal to the sum of the
Example
probabilities of the sample points in the event. The director of admissions at Lakeville College
subjectively assessed a probability distribution for x, the
number of entering students as follows.
x f(x)
1000 .15
1100 .20
1200 .30
1300 .25
1400 .10
x wx i i
E(x) = = xf(x)
w i
Expected Value
x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) =
____________________
____________________
Expected Value and Variance
Before Now
Variance of Grouped Variance of A
Data random Variable
f ( M ) 2
Var(x) = 2 = (x - )2f(x)
2 i i
N
Where N was ∑ fi
For Standard Deviation, we just take the positive square
root of the Variance
Variance of a Random Variable
P(A B) = P(A)P(B)
Example
Flip a coin three times. What is the probability
of exactly two heads showing up?
◦ Is this a binomial experiment?
n identical trials?
Two outcomes, success/failure?
Probability of success does not change?
Trials independent?
◦ __________________________
Our interest is in the number of successes out
of n trials.
__________________________
Binomial Distribution
Example:
Lets consider the next three customers that
enter a clothing store. Probability that any one
customer makes a purchase is .3. What is the
probability that two of the three next
customers will make a purchase?
◦ Is this a binomial experiment?
n identical trials?
Two outcomes, success/failure?
Probability of success does not change?
Trials independent?
Probability of any event: Equal to the sum of the
Binomial Distribution
probabilities of the sample points in the event.
Probability of a particular
Number of experimental sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly with x successes in n trials
x successes in n trials
Binomial Distribution
Example: Evans Electronics
Evans is concerned about a low retention rate for
employees. In recent years, management has seen a
turnover of 10% of the hourly employees annually. Thus,
for any hourly employee chosen at random, management
estimates a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be
with the company next year.
Binomial Distribution
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random,
what is the probability that 1 of them will
leave the company this year?
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
n!
f ( x) p x (1 p ) (n x )
x !( n x )!
Using Tables of Binomial
Probabilities
p
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250
E(x) = = np
Variance
Var(x) = 2 = np(1 p)
Standard Deviation
np(1 p )
Binomial Distribution
Expected Value
Variance
x e
f ( x)
x!
where:
• f(x) = probability of ________________in an interval
• = ______________of occurrences in an interval
• e = 2.71828
Poisson Distribution
Example: Mercy Hospital
Patients arrive at the MERCY
emergency room of Mercy
Hospital at the average
rate of 6 per hour on
weekend evenings.
What is the
probability of 4 arrivals in
30 minutes on a weekend evening?
x e
f ( x)
x!
Poisson MERCY
= 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4
3 4 (2.71828)3
f (4) .1680
4!
x e
f ( x)
where: x!
• f(x) = probability of x occurrences in an interval
• = mean number of occurrences in an interval
• e = 2.71828
Poisson
Special Property, MEAN = VARIANCE
=2
=2=3
Hypergeometric Distribution
Closely related to the Binomial
Distribution
Again we are interested in x, the number
of successes in n trials
Differences for Hypergeometric:
◦ Trials are ________________!
◦ The probability of success changes from trial
to trial
Hypergeometric Distribution
Properties
1. The set to be sampled consists of N elements
2. Each element can be characterized as a SUCCESS or
FAILURE.
◦ There are a total of r success in the set to be sampled
3. A sample of n elements is selected without
replacement
The distribution tells us:
◦ f(x) = probability of x success in n trials
NOTICE
◦ Independence is gone
◦ Equal probability between trials is gone.
Hypergeometric Distribution
Probability Function
r N r
x n x
f ( x) for 0 < x < r
N
n
where: f(x) = probability of x successes in n trials
n = number of trials
N = number of elements in the population
r = number of elements in the population
labeled success
Hypergeometric Distribution
r N r
x nx
f (x) for 0 < x < r
N
n number of ways
n – x failures can be selected
number of ways from a total of N – r failures
x successes can be selected in the population
from a total of r successes
in the population
number of ways
a sample of size n can be selected
from a population of size N
Hypergeometric
General Principle
Number of Outcomes of Interest
◦ Probability = Number of total possible outcomes
Two Key ideas from old material
◦ To get outcomes we are going to use counting rules
◦ Number of ways to choose n success out of N trials?
1. CNn is how we get the denominator
◦ There are r total success and we want to choose x. How
do we do it? …There are (N-r) total Failures and we are
interested in (n-x) of those failures. How do we do it?
Crx … CN-rn-x
2. We multiply these to get outcomes of interest because
of counting rule number 1
Hypergeometric
Example:
Bob Neveready has removed two dead batteries from a
flashlight and inadvertently mingled them with the two
good batteries he intended as replacements. The four
batteries look identical.
Bob now randomly selects two of the our
batteries. What is the probability he selects the two
good batteries?
DOES THIS FIT THE HYPERGEOMETRIC?
n = number of trials 2
N = number of elements in the population 4
r = number of elements in the population labeled success 2
Hypergeometric
r N r 2 2 2! 2!
x n x 2 0 2!0! 0!2!
1
f (x) .167
N
4
4! 6
n 2 2!2!
where:
x = 2 = number of good batteries selected
n = 2 = number of batteries selected
N = 4 = number of batteries in total
r = 2 = number of good batteries in total
Variance r r N n
Var ( x) n 1
2
N N N 1
Variance
2 2 4 2 1
2 1
2
.333
4 4 4 1 3
Hypergeometric Distribution
When the population size is large, a
hypergeometric distribution can be
approximated by a binomial distribution