Bitcoin in 2018 - There Will Be at Least 4 Crashes of 40% or More - Zero Hedge

12/28/2017 Bitcoin In 2018: "There Will Be At Least 4 Crashes Of 40% Or More" | Zero Hedge
Bitcoin In 2018: "There Will Be At Least 4 Crashes Of 40% Or More"
by Tyler Durden
Dec 27, 2017 1:20 PM
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By Nicholas Colas via DataTrekResearch.com,

When you see something titled “Bitcoin 2018 Predictions”, you are probably most interested in just one thing:
“Where will it go?” So let’s start there, but then add some other observations on a variety of topics.
#1: We expect bitcoin will trade for between $6,470 and $21,600.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/bitcoin-2018-there-will-be-least-4-crashes-40-or-more 1/28
Here’s how we get there:

Bitcoin’s primary “real” use case right now is personal asset protection. Yes, that includes money
laundering and tax evasion. But it also incorporates the legitimate desire of honest people living in
countries with less-than-exemplary rules of law to shield some of their assets.
At the moment, the primary instrument used globally for these purposes is the $100 bill. Yes, the
European Central Bank also issues high denomination notes. But the gold standard of paper currency is the
American C-Note. (Oxymoron intended).
While bitcoin doesn’t have the backing of the US government, you can’t forge a bitcoin (and there are
likely as many fake $100s in circulation as real ones). Plus, you don’t need a locked aluminum case and a
handcuff to transport it. So we’ll call it a draw.
There are $1.1 trillion of legitimate $100 bills in circulation, and by the Federal Reserve’s estimate some
80% live offshore.
If bitcoin were worth 10% of the $100s in circulation, its value would be $6,470. The math: $110
billion divided by 17 million bitcoins equals $6,470.
If bitcoin were worth 33% of all the $100s in circulation, it value would be $21,600. Same math as
prior point. Could bitcoin get to 50% of the value of all $100s? Possibly, but that level of adoption likely
requires more time.
At the average of the high and low, we get to $14,035. That’s not far off the current trading price, which gives
us comfort we’re on the right track with our valuation. The only way it goes substantially higher is if/when
someone comes up with a large-scale business that uses bitcoin. That may come in 2018. But for now that
scalable use case is asset protection, so that’s how we value bitcoin today.
Bottom line: bitcoin can rally to $22,000 and still be reasonably priced, or plummet to $6,500 and also be
correctly valued. We expect to see bitcoin trade for both prices in 2018.
#2 Bitcoin will lose market share to other crypto currencies in 2018.
There is essentially a “Civil war” in crypto currency land between competing offerings. That wasn’t really the case
until Q4 2017, but we expect more strife next year. The reason: bitcoin is still about 44% of total crypto currency
market cap. Backers of other crypto currencies have an outsized incentive to encourage bitcoin holders to switch.
#3 Many major US brokerage firms and asset manager will announce plans to open a crypto desk.
Early adopters of bitcoin and other crypto currencies are an untapped source of profitable new clients for high
net worth brokers and asset managers. But in order to access that wealth, these firms will have to offer an
exchange mechanism to sell the underlying and diversify these clients’ holdings.
#4 There will be at least 4 crashes of 40% or more.

Bitcoin and crypto currency are hard to value and their economic utility relies on use cases that are not yet built.
Of course the volatility we’ve seen will continue.
#5 Coinbase will improve operational quality ahead of an IPO, helping crypto currency adoption rates.
Coinbase (a popular wallet app) closed a Series D round in August of this year. In total, they have raised $225
million and that last round gave them a $1.6 billion valuation. Given the dearth of “Real” crypto currency plays in
US equity markets, we expect the company could do an IPO in 2018 at a $5 billion valuation or greater. And since
it is VC funded, we expect many investors will be looking for exit sooner rather than later.
The reason why this matters: Coinbase needs to improve its customer experience a lot, and quickly. The system
did not work well during the recent bout of volatility. But when it does improve (and it will, if it wants to go
public), more investors will feel comfortable buying crypto currencies.
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Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:21 PM

And then the 99.9% crash.
Do'h!!!
At some point even the ultra-dense realize that the Ponzi has played itself out. No more YUGE gains.
On to the next early stage Ponzi.
Badsamm  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:24 PM

saw this quote last week,
Bitcoin has "crashed" 30% SIX TIMES in 2017. Each "crash" has been followed by an increase of: 76%,
237%, 183%, 165%, 152%. Bitcoin takes 7 steps forward, 2 steps back, 7 steps forward, 2 steps back.
Every 2 steps back is heralded as the end of #bitcoin. Relax!
ShrimpinAin'tEasy  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 1:26 PM

Mr Creosote ~ may I offer you a waffer thin mint?
overbet  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 2:23 PM

Man so many people know the future. Wish I had this ability.
Jcazloebster  overbet • Dec 27, 2017 2:26 PM

I'm making over $15k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much
money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally
changed my life. This is what I do.... http://disq.us/url?
url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.Jobzon3.com%3Ab8eR_DQLwGRPVGtFvv...
DownWithYogaPants  Jcazloebster • Dec 27, 2017 3:30 PM

ROFLMAO. Predictions. You want to hear a lot of them just go to Youtube where the attention
whores hang out trying to grab any eyeballs they can.
Calling bullshit.
BarkingCat  DownWithYogaPants • Dec 27, 2017 4:20 PM

So that's all that beautiful girl was trying to grab? My eyeballs?
Damn, I thought she said "I" not "eye".
Pairadimes  BarkingCat • Dec 27, 2017 5:00 PM

Too bad this analysis was presented to me electronically. I have an urge to wipe my ass with it.
What a hack. Where are the references to growth? Weaknesses in conventional securities? Central
Banks racing to the bottom? The internet as the last refuge of free exchange? Forecasting BTC
price against holdings of C notes? Seriously?
Michigander  DownWithYogaPants • Dec 27, 2017 5:55 PM

Clif High see's BTC at $100,000 next year. Before down voting me...

He sees silver at 1,000 by EOY 2019.

Now downvote away...
Stackers  overbet • Dec 27, 2017 4:17 PM

Overbet, then you would be an economist
Badsamm  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 1:47 PM

That is some real butt hurt to down vote facts
LSD - Lower Slo...  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 2:16 PM

It is guaranteed that Bitcoin will continue to go up exponentially. Becasue past performance is
guaranteed to continue to infinity. That's why all speculation vehicles only go up exponentially, to
infinity. Past performance guarantees future results.
Badsamm  LSD - Lower Slower Delaware • Dec 27, 2017 2:45 PM

I can guarantee when people have an option outside of banks, they will take it. Try getting your to
your money while on vacation in Mexico over a holiday weekend.
Even after notifying Bank of America of our travel this week, they still restricted my account until I
called the fraud center. Closed for the holidays.
Monkeymitts  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 3:13 PM

Most people are too lazy or have been indoctinated by government through education to think for
themselves. Sadly.
RedDwarf  LSD - Lower Slower Delaware • Dec 27, 2017 5:18 PM

No one is claiming indefinite exponential growth. If you're going to counter the pro-crypto
people, do at least try to not constantly lie about their core positions.
The pro-crypto arguments of many has been that crypto will go up dramatically as it replaces the
fiat systems. Thus the size of the cryptos will be somewhat equal to the size of the current fiat
systems. That is FAR LARGER than current market caps, but not 'infinity'.
Bumpo  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 3:20 PM

Which "Facts"?
Semi-employed W...  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:37 PM

Another loser that didn't buy any heard from.
LSD - Lower Slo...  Semi-employed White Guy • Dec 27, 2017 2:23 PM
" ' d" h f l h "
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/bitcoin-2018-there-will-be-least-4-crashes-40-or-more ' l " h 4/28
"You're stoooopid" is a much more powerful argument than "you're a loser." You might want to
change things up a bit in order to convince more people.
ic_Slayer  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:41 PM

https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic6.businessinsider...

just look at it, please.
HRClinton  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 2:12 PM

Tax evasion, asset protection? LMAO. Try this, bitch:
What part of Boston Tea Party Tax Revolt is unclear to the (((Vichy Regime))) in DC?
BTC and other CCs are our collective WITHDRAWAL from the System. The System of unelected,
self-appointed bureau-rats and agents of the bankster cartel. We are withdrawing, we
are repudiating your plutocratic and odious system. We are leaving your Debt Slave Plantation.
We are no longer your "Money Niggers". We are "going Galt".
As such, we are taking our fiat to build our Parallel Economy. Not a Black or Gray economy, but
a Parallel Economy.
Parallel Economy = Economy of free Society, the kind that we had after we kicked out King George
and his entitled aristocratic parasites and army of mercenaries.
Parallel Economy = Repudiation of the private Money Cartel and its fiat chits, its fiat credit and
its odious and (((usurious debt))). Its a fiat strangler, by depriving it of our lifeblood.
Parallel Economy = Barter, Cash, PM, Cryptos, and Appreciating Assets. It's the Monetary
Revolution of 1776. Our Monetary Independence.
Parallel Economy = here. It's growing globally and exponentially.
wcole225  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 2:15 PM

So says the rationalizer who thinks he missed the train. In awhile you'll be wanting to blow your
brains out.
LSD - Lower Slo...  wcole225 • Dec 27, 2017 2:19 PM

Such powerful "arguments" for Ponzi. LOL!
BlindMonkey  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 2:27 PM

One of the hallmarks of a Ponzi scheme is promised returns. Cryptos make no such promises so the
comparison is just ludicrous.
BarkingCat  BlindMonkey • Dec 27, 2017 4:26 PM

I bet you that if it became known that a given crypto would have no chance to increase in value
(promise of profit), most people would sell it immediately.
I sure as hell would not be holding any of them. My whole premise is to ride the bubble and sell it
to a greater fool.
ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 1:24 PM

McAfee's dick may not like this news, but his stomach will.
McAfee s dick may not like this news, but his stomach will.
ShorTed  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 1:31 PM

You put a lot of faith in Colas's prognostications.
ShrimpinAin'tEasy  ShorTed • Dec 27, 2017 1:34 PM

I don't put faith in any prognostications (cept maybe those of Mark Twain).
Badsamm  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 2:01 PM

What’s the price if he is 10% correct?
ShrimpinAin'tEasy  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 2:44 PM

The only time 10% of a dick is at risk is seconds before the rabbi bites the end off of it.

or, later in life, if you accidentally see an upskirt foto of Cankles getting out of a limo.

Come to think of it ~ why do they both always wear pants suits?
putaipan  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 2:23 PM

my gut feeling has been exactly the same as cliff high's mumbo jumbo for a year now-

btc see's 100000$ next year, but settles/achieves a steady 60000.
Schmuck Raker • Dec 27, 2017 1:30 PM

Coinbase = the devil
ShorTed  Schmuck Raker • Dec 27, 2017 1:32 PM

"Your transfer request has been put on hold for 72 hours to protect your account from fraud"
Yeah, thx Coinbase
ShrimpinAin'tEasy  ShorTed • Dec 27, 2017 1:36 PM

"Coinbase = the devil"

Schmuck Raker is... MAMA BOUCHER... REVEALED!!!

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/500x/78021544/marijuana-is-the-d...
Clock Crasher • Dec 27, 2017 1:31 PM

Theres a gap that needs filling at fifteen cents.
ic_Slayer • Dec 27, 2017 1:39 PM

Here comes the pain. Seen it (the valuation graph) too many times before. https://duckduckgo.com/?
q=valuation+stages+blow+off&atb=v92-5__&iax=imag...
Badsamm  ic_Slayer • Dec 27, 2017 1:54 PM

LOL. Where on that chart do you think we are? Less than 2% of the planet owns bitcoin or any other
crypto.
First Inning.
BlindMonkey  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 2:30 PM

Very true. We are starting seeing nations realize the power of a self-settling transaction mechanism
that bypasses Western control.
GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 1:34 PM

Maybe consider trading a few of those ethereal bits for something that has actual dimensions and
weight? Just a thought...
bcking  GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 1:39 PM

Yeah and "hashgraph" will replace bitcoin. Sure, Mike.
Yellow_Snow  bcking • Dec 27, 2017 3:26 PM

TrashGraph
0valueleft  GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 1:51 PM

Diversifying is a hard sell to both schools here Mike, lots of linear thinking.
Yellow_Snow  GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 3:25 PM

Hi Mike, What's your thoughts on GoldMoney ?
aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 1:36 PM
Maybe we should all chip in and send McAfee some fava beans and a nice Chianti...
Kat Daddy  aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 2:43 PM

Delicious with penis in cream sauce, eh?
Mine Is Bigger  aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 2:47 PM

Or maybe we can all chip in, drive bitcoin above $1 million apiece and save his P and become rich at
the same time?
Golden Phoenix  aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 3:39 PM

I b b i l h i i i fl ith th t t f
I gave you an up arrow because you obviously have more experience pairing flavors with the taste of
cock than anyone. Nah, I'm just kidding - I didn't give you an up arrow!
BarkingCat  Golden Phoenix • Dec 27, 2017 4:29 PM

ROTFLMAO
WhosJohnGalt • Dec 27, 2017 1:36 PM

Posting non-logarithmic charts is about as dumb as it gets.
In fact, it's a manipulative technique used on people who don't know why logarithmic charts are used
to begin with.
Wake me up where there's some real, quality commentary about crypto on here...not just
sensationalist bull jive.
Semi-employed W...  WhosJohnGalt • Dec 27, 2017 1:40 PM

Expecting quality crypto info from ZH is like expecting sanity from MSNBC.
natronic  Semi-employed White Guy • Dec 27, 2017 1:42 PM

I love watching the crazies on MSNBC!!!

Bitcoin in 2018 - There Will Be at Least 4 Crashes of 40% or More - Zero Hedge

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12/28/2017 Bitcoin In 2018: "There Will Be At Least 4 Crashes Of 40% Or More" | Zero Hedge

Bitcoin In 2018: "There Will Be At Least 4 Crashes Of 40% Or More"

By Nicholas Colas via DataTrekResearch.com,

Here’s how we get there:

#4 There will be at least 4 crashes of 40% or more.

Comment viewing options

50 comments per page Save settings

Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:21 PM

Badsamm  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:24 PM

ShrimpinAin'tEasy  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 1:26 PM

overbet  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 2:23 PM

Jcazloebster  overbet • Dec 27, 2017 2:26 PM

DownWithYogaPants  Jcazloebster • Dec 27, 2017 3:30 PM

BarkingCat  DownWithYogaPants • Dec 27, 2017 4:20 PM

Pairadimes  BarkingCat • Dec 27, 2017 5:00 PM

Michigander  DownWithYogaPants • Dec 27, 2017 5:55 PM

Stackers  overbet • Dec 27, 2017 4:17 PM

Badsamm  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 1:47 PM

LSD - Lower Slo...  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 2:16 PM

Badsamm  LSD - Lower Slower Delaware • Dec 27, 2017 2:45 PM

Monkeymitts  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 3:13 PM

RedDwarf  LSD - Lower Slower Delaware • Dec 27, 2017 5:18 PM

Bumpo  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 3:20 PM

Semi-employed W...  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:37 PM

ic_Slayer  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 1:41 PM

HRClinton  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 2:12 PM

wcole225  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 2:15 PM

LSD - Lower Slo...  wcole225 • Dec 27, 2017 2:19 PM

BlindMonkey  Gap Admirer • Dec 27, 2017 2:27 PM

BarkingCat  BlindMonkey • Dec 27, 2017 4:26 PM

ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 1:24 PM

ShorTed  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 1:31 PM

ShrimpinAin'tEasy  ShorTed • Dec 27, 2017 1:34 PM

Badsamm  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 2:01 PM

ShrimpinAin'tEasy  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 2:44 PM

putaipan  ShrimpinAin'tEasy • Dec 27, 2017 2:23 PM

Schmuck Raker • Dec 27, 2017 1:30 PM

ShorTed  Schmuck Raker • Dec 27, 2017 1:32 PM

ShrimpinAin'tEasy  ShorTed • Dec 27, 2017 1:36 PM

Clock Crasher • Dec 27, 2017 1:31 PM

ic_Slayer • Dec 27, 2017 1:39 PM

Badsamm  ic_Slayer • Dec 27, 2017 1:54 PM

BlindMonkey  Badsamm • Dec 27, 2017 2:30 PM

GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 1:34 PM

bcking  GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 1:39 PM

Yellow_Snow  bcking • Dec 27, 2017 3:26 PM

0valueleft  GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 1:51 PM

Yellow_Snow  GoldSilver_com • Dec 27, 2017 3:25 PM

aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 1:36 PM

Kat Daddy  aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 2:43 PM

Mine Is Bigger  aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 2:47 PM

Golden Phoenix  aloha_snakbar • Dec 27, 2017 3:39 PM

BarkingCat  Golden Phoenix • Dec 27, 2017 4:29 PM

WhosJohnGalt • Dec 27, 2017 1:36 PM

Semi-employed W...  WhosJohnGalt • Dec 27, 2017 1:40 PM

natronic  Semi-employed White Guy • Dec 27, 2017 1:42 PM

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