Forecast Report for Stuff-Mart

Customer
Muffins > Stuff-Mart

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
I will perform an out-of-sample test to select between these two approaches.

The cumulative MAD for Exponential smoothing was 502883 and for Box-Jenkins was 435313.
The rolling out-of-sample test used a maximum horizon of 12 and generated 78 forecasts for each method.

Based on the lower MAD, I will use Box-Jenkins.

Model Details

Warning - displayed forecasts represent adjusted values, not actual forecasts using the model shown

Model generated using aggregated history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Box-Jenkins
ARIMA(0, 0, 0)*(0, 1, 1)
Term Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Significance
B[12] 0.85876 0.060541 14.185 1

Within-Sample Statistics

Sample size 66 No. parameters 1

Mean 7570040.61 Std. deviation 1759958.29
R-square 0.85 Adj. R-square 0.85
Durbin-Watson 1.75 Ljung-Box(18) 21.5 P=0.75
Forecast error 692328.94 BIC 709221.06
MAPE 6.41 RMSE 687064.01
 MAD 489374.29

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul 4397605.8958 **5886351.5486
2007-Aug 4745554.847 6234300.4999
2007-Sep 7997218.4787 * 9485964.1316 21606616.1801
2007-Oct 8272278.0045 * 9761023.6573
2007-Nov 8232126.8027 * 9720872.4555
2007-Dec 10720497.7612 12209243.414 31691139.5268 95469643.7069
2008-Jan 6578295.317 8067040.9698
2008-Feb 6620843.6471 8109589.3
2008-Mar 7570039.3682 9058785.0211 25235415.2908
2008-Apr 5102917.2318 6591662.8847
2008-May 4805184.5371 6293930.1899
2008-Jun 6227673.2187 7716418.8716 20602011.9462

Total 99135182.9439
Average 8261265.2453
Minimum 5886351.5486
Maximum 12209243.414

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

Date Reference Override Last Updated Comment

2007-Sep Statistical 8469610.8318
Override 1 9485964 1/8/2008 9:09:53 AM Increased 12% for fall promotion
Forecast 9485964.1316
2007-Oct Statistical 8715199.694
Override 1 9761024 1/8/2008 9:09:53 AM Increased 12% for fall promotion
Forecast 9761023.6573
2007-Nov Statistical 8679350.4067
Override 1 9720872 1/8/2008 9:09:53 AM Increased 12% for fall promotion
Forecast 9720872.4555

Aggregated Outliers

Status Corrected
Aggregated
Date Outlier Corr. Value
2002-Feb 6471808 5952426.8793 519381.1207
2002-Sep 10150016 7435094.4953 2714921.5047
2003-Mar 9212832 11043037.9207 -1830205.9207
2004-May 4307008 6151541.951 -1844533.951
2004-Oct 9106800 8693453.4495 413346.5505
2004-Dec 12364448 12248212.0179 116235.9821
2005-Jan 8388736 7843443.8437 545292.1563
2005-Mar 8659392 8414046.9961 245345.0039
2005-Apr 5868768 5944223.2513 -75455.2513
2005-Dec 12943752 12363126.3467 580625.6533
2006-Sep 9462312 9072580.0493 389731.9507
2006-Nov 7753792 8098627.9048 -344835.9048
2006-Dec 10364640 11702637.995 -1337997.995
for each method.

he model shown
 97.5 Upper
7375097.2015
7723046.1527
10974709.7844
11249769.3101
11209618.1084
13697989.0669
9555786.6227
9598334.9528
10547530.6739
8080408.5375
7782675.8428
9205164.5244

ed 12% for fall promotion

ed 12% for fall promotion

ed 12% for fall promotion

Forecast Report for Grain

SubCategory
Muffins > Stuff-Mart > Grain

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
Nonpositive series. Multiplicative seasonality ruled out.
I will perform an out-of-sample test to select between these two approaches.

The cumulative MAD for Exponential smoothing was 103331 and for Box-Jenkins was 223218.
The rolling out-of-sample test used a maximum horizon of 12 and generated 78 forecasts for each method.

Based on the lower MAD, I will use Exponential Smoothing.

Model Details

Warning - displayed forecasts represent adjusted values, not actual forecasts using the model shown

Model generated using aggregated history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Exponential smoothing: No trend, Additive seasonality
NA(0.014, 0.255)

Component Smoothing Wgt Final Value

Level 0.013674 382954
Seasonal 0.25468
Seasonal Indexes
Jan - Mar 173506 -156719 -231210
Apr - Jun -285534 -300734 -269778
Jul - Sep -267008 -228778 269700
Oct - Dec 441989 45505 809062
Within-Sample Statistics

Sample size 66 No. parameters 2

Mean 349347.27 Std. deviation 399957.65
R-square 0.63 Adj. R-square 0.62
Durbin-Watson 2.04 Ljung-Box(18) 18.5 P=0.57
Forecast error 245455.3 BIC 257548.66
MAPE 65.07 RMSE 241707.67
MAD 141662.6

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul -10255.9295 **105689.4612
2007-Aug -11587.2166 142588.3396
2007-Sep 132201.9775 **637082.5937 885360.3945
2007-Oct 365392.0946 **870319.8927
2007-Nov 54772.3731 **483231.0065
2007-Dec 599995.5768 1105017.7255 2458568.6248 4371945.0193
2008-Jan 54287.3782 559356.6956
2008-Feb -57172.0957 169062.6227
2008-Mar -35565.542 116178.6185 844597.9367
2008-Apr 11549.4159 108968.7171
2008-May -2570.5112 79648.7209
2008-Jun -5889.5874 107286.1322 295903.5702

Total 4484430.5262
Average 373702.5439
Minimum 79648.7209
Maximum 1105017.7255

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

There are no overrides for this item

Aggregated Outliers

Status Corrected
Aggregated
Date Outlier Corr. Value
2002-Feb 725760 206378.8793 519381.1207
2004-Oct 1324080 910733.4495 413346.5505
2004-Dec 279936 697209.6951 -417273.6951
2005-Jan 795744 744740.4766 51003.5234
2005-Mar 388800 143454.9961 245345.0039
2005-Apr 25920 101375.2513 -75455.2513
2005-Dec 1885320 1304694.3467 580625.6533
2006-Sep 1133640 743908.0493 389731.9507
2006-Dec 1397088 1109731.6022 287356.3978
for each method.

he model shown
97.5 Upper
610475.7004
647421.7695
1141963.2099
1375247.6909
988205.9821
1610039.8742
1064426.013
674179.1043
621342.26
614179.5141
584906.6689
612591.2269
Forecast Report for COR-12-11

12 count Corn Muffins

Muffins > Stuff-Mart > Grain > COR-12-11

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
I will perform an out-of-sample test to select between these two approaches.

The cumulative MAD for Exponential smoothing was 16160 and for Box-Jenkins was 17654.
The rolling out-of-sample test used a maximum horizon of 12 and generated 78 forecasts for each method.

Based on the lower MAD, I will use Exponential Smoothing.

Model Details

Model generated using history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Exponential smoothing: No trend, Additive seasonality
NA(0.097, 0.460)

Component Smoothing Wgt Final Value

Level 0.097426 89733
Seasonal 0.46045
Seasonal Indexes
Jan - Mar 39326 -18850 -390.6
Apr - Jun -6616.7 -49181 -34426
Jul - Sep -51013 -38653 16175
Oct - Dec 28639 17653 97337

Within-Sample Statistics

Sample size 49 No. parameters 2

 Mean 83248.16 Std. deviation 45399.45
R-square 0.81 Adj. R-square 0.8
Durbin-Watson 2.14 Ljung-Box(18) 18.9 P=0.60
Forecast error 20167.62 BIC 21384.52
MAPE 26.78 RMSE 19751.75
MAD 16279.83

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul 1279.5919 * 40000
2007-Aug 8968.652 51079.9923
2007-Sep 76308.6439 **118617.4989 209697.4912
2007-Oct 90071.7787 **132577.2305
2007-Nov 77571.0217 **120272.1652
2007-Dec 144173.8615 187069.804 439919.1997 1109696.691
2008-Jan 85969.1499 129059.0107
2008-Feb 27600.7776 70883.688
2008-Mar 45867.4862 89342.589 289285.2877
2008-Apr 39450.0237 83116.4729
2008-May 0 40552.317
2008-Jun 11260.4656 55307.114 178975.9039

Total 1117877.8826
Average 93156.4902
Minimum 40000
Maximum 187069.804

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

Date Reference Override Last Updated Comment

2007-Jul Statistical 38720.4081
Override 1 40000 1/8/2008 9:10:17 AM Set value to 40000
Forecast 40000

Outliers

Status Corrected

Date Outlier Corr. Value

2005-Jan 174960 123956.4766 51003.5234
2005-Apr 25920 101375.2513 -75455.2513
2005-Dec 298080 197905.9446 100174.0554
2006-Dec 259200 197905.9446 61294.0554
for each method.
97.5 Upper
81912.8949
93191.3327
160926.3539
175082.6823
162973.3088
229965.7465
172148.8716
114166.5984
132817.6917
126782.9221
84409.2778
99353.7624
Forecast Report for BRA-12-11

12 count Bran Muffins

Muffins > Stuff-Mart > Grain > BRA-12-11

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
Nonpositive series. Multiplicative seasonality ruled out.

I will use smoothing--the series has too many zeroes for Box-Jenkins.

I will use Exponential Smoothing.

Model Details

Model generated using history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Exponential smoothing: No trend, Additive seasonality
NA(0.011, 0.310)

Component Smoothing Wgt Final Value

Level 0.011111 134745
Seasonal 0.30966
Seasonal Indexes
Jan - Mar -30609 -98218 -111007
Apr - Jun -112664 -98797 -85935
Jul - Sep -73541 -55410 176203
Oct - Dec 156357 -83123 416745

Within-Sample Statistics

Sample size 66 No. parameters 2

Mean 133644.49 Std. deviation 167898.88
 R-square 0.77 Adj. R-square 0.77
Durbin-Watson 2.29 Ljung-Box(18) 10.3 P=0.08
Forecast error 81066.31 BIC 85060.37
MAPE 91.79 RMSE 79828.59
MAD 59516.32

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul 0 61203.9019
2007-Aug 0 79334.4871
2007-Sep 181525.2191 **348261.1181 488799.5071
2007-Oct 159288.1013 **326034.2892
2007-Nov 6194.6406 **57816.6453
2007-Dec 384722.6714 551489.4355 935340.37 1623147.8771
2008-Jan 0 104135.9855
2008-Feb 0 36526.4345
2008-Mar 0 23738.1364 164400.5564
2008-Apr 0 22080.4201
2008-May 0 35948.0866
2008-Jun 0 48809.4942 106838.0009

Total 1695378.4344
Average 141281.5362
Minimum 22080.4201
Maximum 551489.4355

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

There are no overrides for this item

Outliers

Status Corrected

Date Outlier Corr. Value

2002-Feb 725760 206378.8793 519381.1207
2004-Dec 0 417273.6951 -417273.6951
2005-Mar 291600 46254.9961 245345.0039
2006-Dec 194400 532380.6574 -337980.6574
97.5 Upper
227919.2208
246060.0964
514997.017
492780.4772
224573.1217
718256.1997
270913.0369
203313.7723
190535.7601
188888.3291
202766.2802
215637.9717
Forecast Report for OAT-12-11

12 count Oatmeal Muffins

Muffins > Stuff-Mart > Grain > OAT-12-11

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
Nonpositive series. Multiplicative seasonality ruled out.

I will use smoothing--the series has too many zeroes for Box-Jenkins.

I will use Exponential Smoothing.

Model Details

Model generated using history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Exponential smoothing: No trend, Additive seasonality
NA(0.008, 0.291)

Component Smoothing Wgt Final Value

Level 0.0083801 131344
Seasonal 0.29119
Seasonal Indexes
Jan - Mar 194817 -69692 -128246
Apr - Jun -127573 -128196 -128175
Jul - Sep -126859 -119171 20623
Oct - Dec 236252 141104 235114

Within-Sample Statistics

Sample size 66 No. parameters 2

Mean 123684.29 Std. deviation 168365.51
 R-square 0.74 Adj. R-square 0.74
Durbin-Watson 1.92 Ljung-Box(18) 14.0 P=0.27
Forecast error 86243.98 BIC 90493.14
MAPE 34.96 RMSE 84927.21
MAD 44937.49

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul 0 4485.5594
2007-Aug 0 12173.8601
2007-Sep 18236.1404 **170203.9767 186863.3962
2007-Oct 234326.334 **411708.373
2007-Nov 127753.93 **305142.196
2007-Dec 189063.9931 366458.486 1083309.055 1639100.4512
2008-Jan 148760.9798 326161.6993
2008-Feb 0 61652.5003
2008-Mar 0 3097.8931 390912.0927
2008-Apr 0 3771.8241
2008-May 0 3148.3173
2008-Jun 0 3169.524 10089.6653

Total 1671174.2092
Average 139264.5174
Minimum 3097.8931
Maximum 411708.373

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

There are no overrides for this item

Outliers

Status Corrected

Date Outlier Corr. Value

2004-Oct 708480 295133.4495 413346.5505
2005-Dec 866592 386140.4022 480451.5978
2006-Sep 544320 154588.0493 389731.9507
2006-Dec 943488 379445.0003 564042.9997
97.5 Upper
181848.916
189543.4444
347579.7885
589090.412
482530.4621
543852.9788
503562.4188
239059.4461
180511.0651
181191.222
180573.941
180601.3732
Forecast Report for Fruit

SubCategory
Muffins > Stuff-Mart > Fruit

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
I will perform an out-of-sample test to select between these two approaches.

The cumulative MAD for Exponential smoothing was 439830 and for Box-Jenkins was 363779.
The rolling out-of-sample test used a maximum horizon of 12 and generated 78 forecasts for each method.

Based on the lower MAD, I will use Box-Jenkins.

Model Details

Warning - displayed forecasts represent adjusted values, not actual forecasts using the model shown

Model generated using aggregated history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Box-Jenkins
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)*(1, 0, 1)
Term Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Significance
a[1] 0.29618 0.11183 2.6485 0.98979
A[12] 0.99965 0.00012263 8151.8 1
B[12] 0.87292 0.060416 14.449 1

Within-Sample Statistics

Sample size 66 No. parameters 3

Mean 7220693.33 Std. deviation 1515342.29
R-square 0.73 Adj. R-square 0.72
Durbin-Watson 2.08 Ljung-Box(18) 12.4 P=0.17
 Forecast error 801706.26 BIC 861522.95
MAPE 8.85 RMSE 783273.77
MAD 611900.51

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul 4245473.2608 5780662.0874
2007-Aug 4490604.3471 6091712.1603
2007-Sep 7242120.255 **8848881.5379 20721255.7856
2007-Oct 7283447.5018 **8890703.7646
2007-Nov 7630341.7733 **9237641.449
2007-Dec 9496922.2046 11104225.6885 29232570.902 91097698.6876
2008-Jan 5900380.4563 7507684.2742
2008-Feb 6333222.8301 7940526.6773
2008-Mar 7335302.5528 8942606.4026 24390817.3541
2008-Apr 4875390.3175 6482694.1676
2008-May 4606977.619 6214281.469
2008-Jun 6001828.8894 7609132.7394 20306108.376

Total 94650752.4177
Average 7887562.7015
Minimum 5780662.0874
Maximum 11104225.6885

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

There are no overrides for this item

Aggregated Outliers

Status Corrected
Aggregated
Date Outlier Corr. Value
2002-Sep 9680000 6965078.4953 2714921.5047
2003-Mar 9199872 11030077.9207 -1830205.9207
2004-May 4294048 6138581.951 -1844533.951
2004-Dec 12084512 11551002.3228 533509.6772
2005-Jan 7592992 7098703.3671 494288.6329
2006-Nov 7360672 7705507.9048 -344835.9048
2006-Dec 8967552 10592906.3928 -1625354.3928
for each method.

he model shown
97.5 Upper
7315850.914
7692819.9735
10455642.8208
10497960.0273
10844941.1247
12711529.1723
9114988.0921
9547830.5245
10549910.2524
8089998.0176
7821585.3191
9216436.5894
Forecast Report for BLU-12-11

12 count Blueberry Muffins

Muffins > Stuff-Mart > Fruit > BLU-12-11

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
I will perform an out-of-sample test to select between these two approaches.

The cumulative MAD for Exponential smoothing was 94643 and for Box-Jenkins was 133937.
The rolling out-of-sample test used a maximum horizon of 12 and generated 78 forecasts for each method.

Based on the lower MAD, I will use Exponential Smoothing.

Model Details

Model generated using history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Additive Winters: Linear trend, Additive seasonality
LA(0.023, 0.047, 0.356)

Component Smoothing Wgt Final Value

Level 0.023311 1933001
Trend 0.047471 6887.5
Seasonal 0.35621
Seasonal Indexes
Jan - Mar -142881 11873 208330
Apr - Jun -170620 -479428 193253
Jul - Sep -320710 -232407 152826
Oct - Dec 131562 695 647506

Within-Sample Statistics
 Sample size 52 No. parameters 3
Mean 1751178.75 Std. deviation 343551.66
R-square 0.81 Adj. R-square 0.8
Durbin-Watson 1.73 Ljung-Box(18) 38.6 P=1.00
Forecast error 154597.21 BIC 168189.2
MAPE 7.44 RMSE 150071.43
MAD 124040.36

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul 1289534.0272 1619178.9041
2007-Aug 1384626.0347 1714369.1652
2007-Sep 2029426.9758 **2359268.3307 5692816.4001
2007-Oct 2013226.8064 **2343166.3564
2007-Nov 1874271.8281 **2204309.5441
2007-Dec 2291696.0757 2621831.9283 7169307.8287 23951532.2288
2008-Jan 1508098.173 1838332.1331
2008-Feb 1669641.8486 1999973.8872
2008-Mar 1872888.8507 2203318.9386 6041624.959
2008-Apr 1500727.9051 1831256.0132
2008-May 1198709.7859 1529335.8852
2008-Jun 1878180.1266 2208904.188 5569496.0863

Total 24473245.2741
Average 2039437.1062
Minimum 1529335.8852
Maximum 2621831.9283

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

There are no overrides for this item

Outliers

Status Corrected

Date Outlier Corr. Value

2004-May 1591392 1154945.2108 436446.7892
2004-Dec 3039520 2506010.3228 533509.6772
2005-Jan 1850816 1356527.3671 494288.6329
2006-Nov 1537184 1882019.9048 -344835.9048
for each method.
97.5 Upper
1948823.7811
2044112.2958
2689109.6856
2673105.9064
2534347.26
2951967.7809
2168566.0933
2330305.9258
2533749.0265
2161784.1213
1859961.9844
2539628.2493
Forecast Report for APP-12-11

12 count Apple Muffins

Muffins > Stuff-Mart > Fruit > APP-12-11

Expert Analysis

Using rule-based logic I have narrowed down the choice to exponential smoothing or Box-Jenkins.
I will perform an out-of-sample test to select between these two approaches.

The cumulative MAD for Exponential smoothing was 361440 and for Box-Jenkins was 323952.
The rolling out-of-sample test used a maximum horizon of 12 and generated 78 forecasts for each method.

Based on the lower MAD, I will use Box-Jenkins.

Model Details

Model generated using history corrected for outliers

Expert selection
Box-Jenkins
ARIMA(1, 0, 0)*(1, 0, 1)
Term Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Significance
a[1] 0.67911 0.090085 7.5385 1
A[12] 0.99881 0.006128 162.99 1
B[12] 0.86641 0.048582 17.834 1

Within-Sample Statistics

Sample size 66 No. parameters 3

Mean 5869798.11 Std. deviation 1373971.48
R-square 0.79 Adj. R-square 0.79
Durbin-Watson 2.32 Ljung-Box(18) 27.6 P=0.93
Forecast error 634441.21 BIC 681777.97
MAPE 8.72 RMSE 619854.4
 MAD 496202.42

Forecast Data

Date 2.5 Lower Forecast Quarterly Annual 97.5 Upper

2007-Jul 2946590.5171 4161483.1832
2007-Aug 2908785.1928 4377342.9951
2007-Sep 4917801.4872 **6489613.2072 15028439.3855
2007-Oct 4930325.9058 **6547537.4082
2007-Nov 5395606.5406 **7033331.9049
2007-Dec 6835293.7202 8482393.7602 22063263.0733 67146166.4588
2008-Jan 4017946.539 5669352.1411
2008-Feb 4287165.2897 5940552.7901
2008-Mar 5084986.7348 6739287.464 18349192.3951
2008-Apr 2996716.4243 4651438.1543
2008-May 3030029.7291 4684945.5839
2008-Jun 3745223.1763 5400228.5515 14736612.2897

Total 70177507.1436
Average 5848125.5953
Minimum 4161483.1832
Maximum 8482393.7602

(*) Value is a direct override or adjustment.

(**) Value reflects an override or adjustment to a related item.

Overrides

There are no overrides for this item

Outliers

Status Corrected

Date Outlier Corr. Value

2002-Sep 9680000 6965078.4953 2714921.5047
2003-Mar 7472960 9303165.9207 -1830205.9207
2004-May 2702656 4983636.7401 -2280980.7401
2006-Dec 6582400 8207754.3928 -1625354.3928
for each method.
97.5 Upper
5376375.8494
5845900.7973
8061424.9272
8164748.9106
8671057.2693
10129493.8002
7320757.7432
7593940.2904
8393588.1931
6306159.8844
6339861.4386
7055233.9266