SUPPORT TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

THE TRANSPORT STRATEGY OF UKRAINE

L’viv – Krakovets Motorway

Traffic Study final October 2013

1
Contents

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

1 BACKGROUND 15
1.1 INTRODUCTION 15
1.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT 15

2 ANALYSIS OF EXISTING DATA 16

3 TRAFFIC SURVEYS 18
3.1 DATA COLLECTION 18
3.2 SURVEY DATA PROCESSING 22
3.3 DATA ANALYSIS: EXISTING FLOWS AND CHARACTERISTICS 23

4 TRAFFIC FORECAST 31
4.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA 31
4.2 REVISED GENERAL FORECASTS 33
4.3 TRAFFIC FORECASTS 35

5 CONCLUSIONS 39

ANNEXES 41
ANNEX 1: Survey manual 42

October 2013
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic

CBA Cost Benefit Analysis
EIB European Investment Bank
EU European Union
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IFI International Financing Institution
IMF International Monetary Fund
km kilometre
MCC Manual Classified Count
OD Origin - Destination
STS Support to the Transport Strategy of Ukraine
TEN-T Trans-European Network - Transport
UAH Ukrainian Hryvnia

October 2013
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Executive Summary

Description of the project

The road between L’viv and Krakovets in Ukraine is part of the Pan-European Corridor III
Dresden - Wroclaw - Kraków - Tarnow - Korczowa - L’viv - Kyiv. In 1998 a feasibility study was
carried out on the construction of a motorway between L’viv and Krakovets but construction
never took place.

The EIB considers the motorway project to be of sufficient strategic importance for possible IFI
funding. However, the level of traffic may not be sufficient to justify construction to full dual
carriageway motorway standard at present. Therefore, assistance has been requested to review
the design, propose alternative phased construction options, assess current traffic levels,
project potential future traffic volumes and produce an updated economic evaluation. This report
presents the findings of the traffic study.

The length of the proposed motorway is some 60km. However, the total project length is 84.4km
as it includes a northern section of the L’viv ring-road which is currently missing. To complete
the ring-road fully, however, two additional sections would be required. A location map is shown
in the figure below.

Location map of the proposed L’viv - Krakovets motorway

The proposed new motorway could attract traffic from other roads leading to the border when
conditions in terms of speed and safety make this road a preferred connection for a significant
part of the current traffic between Ukraine and the EU. Moreover, the L’viv northern ring section
that is part of the project would reduce car traffic passing through the city centre and provide a
shorter route for trucks that must currently use the longer southern ring section. The northern
section would also be beneficial to local traffic and traffic from other roads connecting to the ring
road, although it would not function optimally unless the two missing sections were also
constructed.

October 2013
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Data collection

Existing data included traffic counts from 2009 provided by Ukrdiprodor. This is shown in the
table below.

Annual average daily traffic, 2009

Road Section km cars buses trucks total

M-09 L’viv - Kulykiv 5 - 15 7505 411 2976 10892
Kulykiv - Zhovkva 15 - 63 2023 83 1333 3439
Zhovkva - Rava Ruska 63 - 67 1600 104 1112 2816
M-10 L’viv - Ivano Frankove 8 - 23 4948 483 2220 7651
Ivano Frankove - Yavoriv 23 - 53 3762 367 1292 5421
Yavoriv - Krakovets 53 - 70 2170 83 1174 3427
M-11 L’viv - km12 8 - 12 4614 913 879 6406
km12 - Horodok 12 - 29 2975 573 619 4167
Horodok - Sudova Vyshnia 29 - 50 1448 156 288 1892
Sudova Vyshnia - Mostyska 50 - 80 1560 78 217 1855
Source: Ukrdiprodor

In September 2013, additional data was collected from origin-destination surveys with
associated manual classified counts at five locations on the M-09, M-10 and M-11 between L’viv
and the Ukrainian / Polish border. Three automatic classified counts (video counts) were also
carried out for a period of one week coinciding with the survey week.

October 2013
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Traffic volumes 2013

The traffic counts were adjusted to annual average daily traffic and the resulting traffic volumes
are shown in the table and figure below.

Summary of AADT 2013 and vehicle type proportions (%)

Station AADT mini van / 2 axle 3 axle 4 axle 5+ axle

Location car bus
/ road 2013 bus pickup truck truck truck truck

1 Krakovets 3282 67.2% 10.1% 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 11.2%
M-10 12.7%
2 Novoyavorivsk 6177 60.1% 11.5% 13.6% 4.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 6.1%
M-10 10.0%
3 Ivano- 8370 57.5% 13.4% 12.3% 5.4% 4.4% 0.7% 0.5% 5.8%
M-10 Frankove 11.4%
4 Shehyni 4977 54.3% 31.6% 5.0% 3.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.3% 2.6%
M-11 5.1%
5 Rava Rus’ka 4169 66.2% 19.0% 4.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 6.9%
M-09 8.6%
Total 58.9% 17.6% 9.8% 4.4% 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 5.4%
9.3%
Source: Consultant’s surveys

Observed traffic composition by survey location

Source: Consultant’s surveys

October 2013
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The figure below shows the hourly variation of traffic at each survey location during a period of
24 hours. Stations 2 and 3 reveal classic profiles. Station 3 has a two-peak profile, with
separate morning and evening peaks in one direction. Station 2 has more constant traffic during
the day with similar traffic volumes in each direction. Stations 1, 4 and 5, located close to the
border crossings, reveal much lower traffic volumes that are more constant during the day and
the night.

Observed hourly variation of traffic by survey location (24 hours MCC)

Station 1: M-10 Krakovets border Station 2: M-10 Novoyavorivsk

Station 3: M-10 Ivano-Frankove Station 4: M-11 Shehyni border

Station 5: M-09 Rava Rus’ka border

Source: Consultant’s surveys

October 2013
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The next figure shows the daily variation of traffic at each video count location during a period of
one week. There is no consistent discernible pattern across the three locations.

Observed daily variation of traffic by survey location (1 week video survey)

Station 1: M-09 Station 2: M-10

Station 3: M-11

Source: Consultant’s surveys

October 2013
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Characteristics of traffic 2013

The table below shows the average number of occupants recorded for each type of vehicle.
Average number of occupants by vehicle type
Vehicle type Av. no. occupants
Light vehicles 2.0
Buses 21.9
Trucks 1.2
Source: Consultant’s surveys

The following table shows the percentage of vehicles being used for a work journey, for a non-
work journey and for a journey between work and non-work locations.

Trip purpose by vehicle type (%)

Vehicle type work work to non- Total
non-work work
Light vehicles 12.7 32.3 55.0 100.0
Heavy vehicles 83.6 12.9 3.5 100.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

The country of registration of each vehicle stopped was recorded. Overall, 69 percent of all
vehicles were registered in Ukraine and a further 28 percent in Poland.

Vehicle registration by type (%)

Vehicle type Ukraine Poland Other
Car 55.9 39.7 4.4
Minibus 81.5 16.7 1.9
Bus 97.3 2.0 0.7
Pickup / van 85.6 13.1 1.3
2 axle truck 92.9 6.0 1.1
3 axle truck 89.5 5.3 5.2
4 axle truck 84.2 15.8 0.0
5+ axle truck 58.3 35.2 6.5
Total 68.8 27.8 3.4
Source: Consultant’s surveys

The next table shows the proportion of domestic, international (with either an origin or
destination in Ukraine) and transit trips made by vehicle type. Overall, 48 percent of journeys
were domestic. Most of the rest of the traffic was international traffic, with virtually no transit
traffic observed. The proportion of international traffic was highest for large trucks (85 percent).
Domestic, international and transit trips by vehicle type (%)
Vehicle type Domestic International Transit Total
Car 44.0 55.3 0.7 100.0
Minibus 45.9 53.8 0.2 100.0
Bus 85.6 14.1 0.3 100.0
Pickup / van 54.7 45.3 0.0 100.0
2 axle truck 71.4 28.6 0.0 100.0
3 axle truck 63.2 36.8 0.0 100.0
4 axle truck 27.8 72.2 0.0 100.0
5+ axle truck 11.2 85.4 3.4 100.0
Total 47.9 51.4 0.7 100.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

October 2013
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The table below shows the proportion of trucks observed to be empty, fully loaded and partially
loaded by type of truck. Overall, 44 percent of trucks were empty and 31 percent were fully
loaded. Larger trucks were more fully loaded than smaller trucks. The average loading of all
trucks was 44 percent.

Truck loading by type of truck (%)

Truck type Empty Partially Fully loaded Total
loaded
2 axle truck 39.2 32.7 28.1 100.0
3 axle truck 53.0 23.5 23.5 100.0
4 axle truck 50.0 12.5 37.5 100.0
5+ axle truck 35.9 15.5 48.6 100.0
Total 44.3 24.4 31.3 100.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

If it is assumed that, overall, partially loaded trucks are half full, the average weight of freight
carried by type of truck is estimated to be 11 tonnes, as shown in the table below.

Average load by type of truck (tonnes)

Truck type Typical Loading Average
payload rate load
2 axle truck 7.5 44.4% 3.3
3/4 axle truck 15.0 39.9% 5.9
5+ axle truck 25.0 56.4% 14.1
Total 18.0 43.5% 11.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

It was not possible to develop a conventional traffic model within the scope of the current
project. However, an analysis of the data enabled estimates to be made of the traffic that could
potentially transfer to the proposed new road. The table below shows the estimated potential
traffic that could use the proposed new road if it was already in operation in 2013.

October 2013
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 Estimated potential traffic on proposed new road by section, AADT 2013
Existing New road section
route M06/M09 M09 L’viv/ Ivano- Yavoriv/
used L’viv Ivano-Frankove Frankove/Yavoriv Krakovets

Cars
M-10 623 4988 3957 1170
M-11 851 851 1133 1133
M-09 640 640 748 748
Total 2114 6479 5838 3051

Buses
M-10 71 791 731 235
M-11 34 34 48 48
M-09 47 47 52 52
Total 152 872 831 335

Trucks
M-10 266 681 670 373
M-11 113 113 134 134
M-09 241 241 268 268
Total 620 1035 1072 775

TOTAL
M-10 960 6460 5358 1778
M-11 998 998 1315 1315
M-09 928 928 1068 1068
TOTAL 2886 8386 7741 4161
Source: Consultant’s analysis

Traffic forecast

The traffic forecast used an update of the TEN-T forecasting procedure based on forecasts of
GDP, car ownership, population and regional development.

GDP growth is based on IMF data and is forecast to be zero in 2013, 2.8 percent in 2014 and
3.5 percent per annum thereafter.

Car ownership is forecast to increase from 150 cars per 1000 population at present to 180 per
1000 population in 2020, 240 in 2030, over 300 in 2040 and 400 in 2050.

Population is forecast to decline from just over 45 million in 2013 to about 37 million in 2050,
although the rate of decline is expected to be slightly less in L’viv oblast.

The resulting forecast of traffic on the existing roads is shown in the table below, followed by a
table that shows forecast traffic on the proposed new road by section .

October 2013
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 Forecast traffic on existing roads by section (AADT)

Source: Consultant’s analysis

Summary of forecast traffic on proposed new road by section (AADT)

October 2013
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 Source: Consultant’s analysis

Conclusions

On the one hand the forecast may be regarded as somewhat optimistic since it is assumed that
no tolls are charged to use the road and that all traffic that could switch to the new facility does
so.

On the other hand it does not consider the following, all of which could lead to higher traffic
volumes:

 the effect of congestion on the existing roads that will increase over time
 induced traffic that might be generated as a result of the construction of the new
infrastructure
 the effect of the reduction or removal of border crossing delays
 the effect of the possible signing by Ukraine of an Association Agreement with the EU.

Furthermore, the forecast does not consider different construction scenarios.

The above issues could all be considered and the data now available would be sufficient to do
this, but a simple traffic model would need to be developed which is beyond the scope of the
resources available during the current assignment. Such a model would also facilitate the
calculation and transfer to the economic analysis of changes in vehicle kilometres and vehicle
hours with and without the project. These would be used for the calculation of vehicle operating
cost savings, time, safety and environmental benefits.

Overall, however, it is believed that the forecast gives a good indication of potential traffic
volumes. It is recommended that the forecast is now incorporated in an updated economic
evaluation. If this evaluation shows that the economic benefits are rather low, then it may not be
worth pursuing the project further at this stage. However, if the evaluation produces marginal or
positive results, then further work should be carried out to refine the forecasts along the lines
suggested above.

October 2013
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1 BACKGROUND

1.1 Introduction

The road between L’viv and Krakovets is part of the Pan-European Corridor III Dresden -
Wroclaw - Kraków - Tarnow - Korczowa - L’viv - Kyiv. The section from Dresden to Kraków is
constructed to motorway standard. Between Kraków and the border with Ukraine, the motorway
has been completed as far as Tarnow. Parts of the remaining section between Tarnow and the
border are completed and full completion is expected by the end of 2014.
Within Ukrainian territory, Corridor III runs from the Polish border at Krakovets to Kyiv via L’viv,
Rivne and Zhytomyr. No section of the corridor has been constructed to segregated motorway
standard, although much of the existing road between Rivne and Kyiv has been upgraded to
dual carriageway with bypasses around major towns.
In 1998 the President of Ukraine signed an order for a concession for the construction and
operation of the L’viv - Krakovets motorway. A Feasibility Study was completed in the same year
by the institute Ukrdiprodor. However, construction never took place.
The EIB considers the motorway project to be of sufficient strategic importance for possible IFI
funding. However, the level of traffic may not be sufficient to justify construction to full dual
carriageway motorway standard from the outset. Therefore, assistance has been requested to
review the design, propose alternative phased construction options, assess current traffic levels,
project potential future traffic volumes and produce an updated economic evaluation. This report
presents the findings of the traffic study.

1.2 Description of the project

The length of the proposed motorway is some 60km. The project however concerns a total
length of 84.4 km because it includes a northern section of the L’viv ring-road which is currently
missing. To complete the ring-road fully, however, two additional sections would be required to
be constructed. A location map is shown in the figure below.

Figure 1.1 Location map of the proposed L’viv - Krakovets motorway

The proposed new motorway could attract traffic from other roads leading to the border when
conditions in terms of speed and safety make this road a preferred connection for a significant
part of the current traffic between Ukraine and the EU. Moreover, the L’viv northern ring section
that is part of the project will increase traffic efficiency significantly, reducing car traffic passing
through the city centre and providing a shorter route for trucks that must currently use the longer
southern ring section. The northern section will also be beneficial to local traffic and traffic from
other roads connecting to the ring road, although it would not function optimally unless the two
missing sections were also constructed.

October 2013
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2 ANALYSIS OF EXISTING DATA

Traffic counts were previously carried out on a regular basis across the country by Ukrdiprodor.
However, it is understood that the counters have not been maintained during the last few years
and the most recent data available is that from 2009 which was used in the TEN-T study 1. An
extract of the TEN-T analysis is shown in the figure below. The subsequent table presents the
data in detail.
Figure 2.1 Annual average daily traffic, 2009

Source: TEN-T study after Ukrdiprodor

Table 2.1 Annual average daily traffic, 2009

Road Section km cars buses trucks total

M-09 L’viv - Kulykiv 5 - 15 7505 411 2976 10892
Kulykiv - Zhovkva 15 - 63 2023 83 1333 3439
Zhovkva - Rava Ruska 63 - 67 1600 104 1112 2816
M-10 L’viv - Ivano Frankove 8 - 23 4948 483 2220 7651
Ivano Frankove - Yavoriv 23 - 53 3762 367 1292 5421
Yavoriv - Krakovets 53 - 70 2170 83 1174 3427
M-11 L’viv - km12 8 - 12 4614 913 879 6406
km12 - Horodok 12 - 29 2975 573 619 4167
Horodok - Sudova Vyshnia 29 - 50 1448 156 288 1892
Sudova Vyshnia - Mostyska 50 - 80 1560 78 217 1855
Source: Ukrdiprodor

1
Support to the Integration of Ukraine in the Trans-European Transport Network TEN-T, 2011.

October 2013
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A graphic analysis of the data is presented in the figure below, showing the traffic volumes and
proportion of traffic by vehicle type on each section of the M-09, M-10 and M-11.

Figure 2.2 Annual average daily traffic, 2009

Source: Ukrdiprodor

October 2013
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3 TRAFFIC SURVEYS

3.1 Data collection

Origin - destination (OD) surveys and associated manual classified counts (MCCs) were carried
out in order to supplement the existing data and to provide more detailed information about the
specific traffic that could potentially use the proposed new road between L’viv and Krakovets.
The surveys were designed and specified by the Consultant but the execution was sub-
contracted to EGIS Ukraina.

OD surveys were carried out at five locations. The exact locations were selected in consultation
with Ukravtodor to respond to the data collection and modelling needs, ensuring that all existing
traffic that could potentially use the proposed new road was intercepted. Each site was
investigated in the field and located at such a point that surveys could safely be undertaken.
Temporary traffic management schemes were drawn up and approved by the regional office of
Ukravtodor and the Traffic Police Department of the Ministry of the Interior in the L’viv Oblast. At
each location there was sufficient space for vehicles to pull off the road on both sides. The
various sections of road were all straight and flat, providing good visibility from a distance.

Station 1 was located close to the border crossing at Krakovets on the M-10 road. It was carried
out on Thursday 19 September 2013.

Station 2 was located on the road M-10, between the junction with the P40 and Novoyavorisk.
The survey was carried out on Tuesday 17 September 2013.

Station 3 was located on the road M-10, between Ivano-Frankove and the L’viv ring road. The
survey at this location was carried out on Wednesday 18 September 2013.

Station 4 was located close to the border crossing at Shehyni on the M-11 road. The survey at
this location was carried out on Thursday 19 September 2013.

Station 5 was located close to the border crossing at Rava Rus’ka on the road M-09. It was
carried out on Tuesday 17 September 2013.

The locations are shown in Table 3.1 and Figure 3.1. A typical survey station layout is shown in
Figure 3.2 and a selection of photographs is shown in Figure 3.3.

At each survey station, interviews were carried out with the occupants of a random sample of
drivers of vehicles travelling in each direction. The survey form is included in Annex 1.

Table 3.1 OD survey locations

Station Location Date
1 M-10 Krakovets border Thur 19 Sep 2013
2 M-10 between P40 - Novoyavoris’k Tue 17 Sep 2013
3 M-10 between Ivano-Frankove - L’viv ring road Wed 18 Sep 2013
4 M-11 Shehyni border Thur 19 Sep 2013
5 M-09 Rava Rus’ka border Tue 17 Sep 2013

October 2013
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 Figure 3.1 Origin - destination survey and video count locations

5 4 OD station

1 Video count
1

2
2
3

4 3

October 2013
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 Figure 3.2 Typical survey station layout

Figure 3.3 Traffic survey

The predefined survey period for the OD surveys was 07h00 to 22h00. This period was specified
in order to observe both the morning and evening peaks, within the constraint of the hours of
daylight. In practice, all surveys started at 07h00 which was the first hour with sufficient daylight for
good visibility on site. However, the surveys at certain locations were terminated before 22h00 due
to reduced visibility. Furthermore, the surveys at certain locations were disrupted during short
periods due to heavy rainfall. The whole survey period was characterised by cold, cloudy weather
with almost constant drizzle and frequent heavy rain.

The following information was collected:

 vehicle type categorised into:

 cars and taxis
 minibuses
 buses
 vans and pickups
 2 axle trucks
 3 axle trucks
October 2013
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  4 axle trucks
 5 axle trucks and larger, including trucks with trailers
 country of vehicle registration
 number of occupants including the driver
 origin
 origin purpose
 destination
 destination purpose
 truck loading (empty, loaded, partially loaded).

A set of survey procedures was drawn up in the form of a survey manual. This set out in detail how
the survey was to be conducted and how the survey forms were to be completed. The manual
(including survey forms) is included in Annex 1.

At each location, an MCC was also carried out during 24 hours on the same day as the OD survey.
The count form is included in Annex 1. The MCCs provided detailed information about the traffic
volumes and composition at each station and facilitated the expansion of the survey data to the
total traffic flow during the survey period.

Prior to conducting the survey, target sample sizes were specified based on estimated AADT, an
absolute target of 5,000 interviews and an overall sample size target of 20 percent. On average, a
21 percent sample was obtained, with a minimum sample of 14 percent. A summary of the
numbers of vehicles sampled and the sample rate is shown in the table below.
Table 3.2 Origin - destination survey sample
Station Road Count Interviews Target Actual
sample sample
1 M-10 2,976 1,189 33% 39%
2 M-10 6,008 993 15% 17%
3 M-10 8,326 1,127 15% 14%
4 M-11 4,455 1,130 25% 25%
5 M-09 3,157 860 33% 27%

Total 24,922 5,299 20% 21%

Source: Consultant’s surveys

Note: the counts in this table are for the 15 hour interview period
and exclude non-interviewed vehicle categories.

Data was also collected from video recordings for a seven day period that coincided with the week
of surveys. Recordings were made at three locations, one each on the M-09, M-10 and M-11 close
to the Ukraine / Poland border.

Overall it can be stated that the survey programme was carried out successfully. It may be noted
that it is not common practice to carry out OD surveys in Ukraine and prior to this study some
doubts had been expressed as to the viability of attempting to do so. Nevertheless, with the
cooperation of Ukravtodor and the Traffic Police Department it was demonstrated that such
surveys can be carried out successfully and safely, providing essential and extensive information
for road infrastructure planning.

October 2013
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3.2 Survey data processing

The OD and MCC survey data was returned to the project office for processing. The data was
coded according to the codes set out in the Survey Manual, then computerised in EXCEL.

The data was run through a series of range and logic checks. This allowed any error in data
collection or data entry to be identified and corrected.

When the data had been fully checked and cleaned, it was expanded to AADT. Factors appended
to each data record incorporate sample factors, expansion to 24 hours, daily and seasonal
variation, and correction for multiple observations.

Sample factors

During the survey period of 15 hours, the drivers of a sample of vehicles were interviewed. From
the MCCs which were undertaken concurrently, the sample factor for the interview period was
calculated. These factors were calculated for each vehicle type at each station separately for the
two directions of traffic.

24 hour factor

A factor for each station by direction was used to expand the 15 hours of survey to 24 hours. The
factors were derived from the MCC data. The factors are set out in the Table 3.3.

Daily variation

The traffic surveys were conducted on a typical weekday. However, at a particular site, traffic flows
tend to vary with the day of the week, following a similar pattern each week. This may depend on
many factors, such as market days, weekend travel and the nature of traffic. It is usual, therefore,
to apply a factor to convert data collected on a particular day to an average day of the week.

Daily variation factors were derived from the seven day video recordings. The factors applied at
each station are shown in Table 3.3 below.

Seasonal variation

The traffic surveys were conducted during the month of September. However, traffic flows are not
constant throughout the year and it is usual to make some adjustment to survey data to account
for this. The seasonal variation factor adjusts the data from the month of survey to an “average”
month.

Seasonal variation factors were provided by Ukravtodor derived from their past programmes of
traffic counts. The factors applied at each station are shown in the table below.

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 Table 3.3 Survey data expansion factors
Station Direction 24 hour Daily Seasonal
1 1 1.46 0.932 0.81
2 1.46
2 1 1.28 1.001 0.81
2 1.25
3 1 1.21 1.022 0.81
2 1.22
4 1 1.32 0.975 0.85
2 1.37
5 1 1.28 1.098 0.85
2 1.55
Source: Consultant’s surveys

Multiple observations

Certain trips on the M-10 would potentially have been observed at up to three survey stations. In
order to correct for such multiple observations, appropriate factors were applied to trips that would
have passed through several survey stations.

3.3 Data analysis: existing flows and characteristics

An analysis of the processed and expanded survey data produced tables of key information such
as traffic on the surveyed roads, traffic composition, average vehicle occupancies etc. The results
of this analysis are described in the following paragraphs.

The vehicles observed at the five survey stations during 24 hours are shown in Table 3.4 and
Figures 3.4 - 3.5. This data is taken from the MCCs and is unadjusted to AADT. The figures show
the data split between vehicle types that were included in the OD survey and those that were not.

Table 3.4 Observed vehicles by type and location (24 hours MCC unadjusted to AADT)
2 3 4 5+
mini- van / horse motor-
Station car bus axle axle axle axle tractor bicycle other total
bus pickup cart cycle
truck truck truck truck
1 2920 437 384 53 52 6 10 486 0 0 22 0 9 4379
2 4576 873 1034 371 220 45 33 466 3 1 16 30 24 7692
3 5813 1357 1243 547 448 73 47 583 3 0 5 1 11 10131
4 3262 1898 303 233 127 8 17 157 1 0 9 5 0 6020
5 2958 849 188 86 67 0 11 308 0 0 88 0 0 4555
Source: Consultant’s surveys

October 2013
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 Figure 3.4 Observed vehicles by type and location - surveyed vehicle categories
(24 hours MCC unadjusted to AADT)

Source: Consultant’s surveys

Figure 3.5 Observed vehicles by type and location - non-surveyed vehicle categories
(24 hours MCC unadjusted to AADT)

Source: Consultant’s surveys

The proportions of vehicles by type observed at each survey station are shown in Table 3.5 and
Figure 3.6 below. The table also shows the total traffic adjusted to AADT, using the expansion
factors described above.

Overall, trucks made up 9 percent of the traffic. The percentage was higher (10 percent or more)
on the M-10 and lower (5 percent) on the M-11. The largest trucks (5 or more axles) made up
about 5 percent of the traffic while 2 axle trucks made up about 3 percent. Three and four axle
trucks generally made up only a very small proportion of the traffic (less than 1 percent in total).

Cars and taxis constituted 59 percent of the traffic overall, ranging from 67 percent at station 1 to
54 percent at station 4. Minibuses made up 18 percent, vans and pickups ten percent and buses
four percent.

Vehicles of types that were not interviewed made up less than one percent of the traffic overall.
These were largely motorcycles and, at station 2, bicycles. Very few agricultural vehicles and
animal drawn vehicles were observed.

October 2013
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 Table 3.5 Summary of AADT 2013 and vehicle type proportions (%)
AADT mini van / 2 axle 3 axle 4 axle 5+ axle
Station Road car bus
2013 bus pickup truck truck truck truck

1 M-10 3282 67.2% 10.1% 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 11.2%
12.7%
2 M-10 6177 60.1% 11.5% 13.6% 4.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 6.1%
10.0%
3 M-10 8370 57.5% 13.4% 12.3% 5.4% 4.4% 0.7% 0.5% 5.8%
11.4%
4 M-11 4977 54.3% 31.6% 5.0% 3.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.3% 2.6%
5.1%
5 M-09 4169 66.2% 19.0% 4.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 6.9%
8.6%
Total 58.9% 17.6% 9.8% 4.4% 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 5.4%
9.3%
Source: Consultant’s surveys

Figure 3.6 Observed traffic composition by survey location (24 hours MCC)

Source: Consultant’s surveys

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Figure 3.7 shows the hourly variation of traffic at each survey location during a period of 24 hours.
Stations 2 and 3 reveal classic profiles. Station 3 has a two-peak profile, with separate morning
and evening peaks in one direction. Station 2 has more constant traffic during the day with similar
traffic volumes in each direction. Stations 1, 4 and 5, located close to the border crossings, reveal
much lower traffic volumes that are more constant during the day and the night.

Figure 3.7 Observed hourly variation of traffic by survey location (24 hours MCC)

Station 1: M-10 Krakovets border Station 2: M-10 Novoyavorivsk

Station 3: M-10 Ivano-Frankove Station 4: M-11 Shehyni border

Station 5: M-09 Rava Rus’ka border

Source: Consultant’s surveys

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Figure 3.8 shows the daily variation of traffic at each video survey location during a period of one
week. There is no consistent discernible pattern across the three locations.

Figure 3.8 Observed daily variation of traffic by survey location (1 week video survey)

Station 1: M-09 Station 2: M-10

Station 3: M-11

Source: Consultant’s surveys

The next table shows the average number of occupants recorded for each type of vehicle. Overall,
cars and other light vehicles were observed to have 1.8 occupants. Buses were observed to be
carrying an average of 22 passengers (including the driver) and trucks were observed to have
between 1.1 occupants in larger trucks and 1.5 occupants in smaller trucks.
Table 3.8 Average number of occupants by vehicle type
Vehicle type Av. no. occupants
Car & taxi 1.8
Minibus 2.6
Bus 21.9
Pickup / van 1.7
2 axle truck 1.5
3 axle truck 1.4
4 axle truck 1.1
5+ axle truck 1.1

Light vehicles 2.0

Buses 21.9
Heavy vehicles 1.2

Total 4.1
Source: Consultant’s surveys

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Table 3.9 shows the percentage of each vehicle type being used for a work journey, for a non-work
journey and for a journey between work and non-work locations. Of the drivers of light vehicles
surveyed, 55 percent were travelling for non-work purposes, 13 percent were travelling for work
purposes and 32 percent were travelling between work and other locations. As would be expected,
the majority (84 percent) of truck drivers were travelling for work purposes.

Table 3.9 Trip purpose by vehicle type (%)

Vehicle type work work to non- Total
non-work work
Light vehicles 12.7 32.3 55.0 100.0
Heavy vehicles 83.6 12.9 3.5 100.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

The country of registration of each vehicle stopped was recorded. Overall, 69 percent of all
vehicles were registered in Ukraine and a further 28 percent in Poland. The percentage of vehicles
registered in Ukraine ranged from 97 percent for buses to 56 percent for cars. The percentage of
vehicles registered in Poland ranged from 40 percent for cars to 2 percent for buses. The most
common country of foreign registration apart from Poland was Germany. A summary of the country
of registration by vehicle type is given in the table below.

Table 3.10 Vehicle registration by type (%)

Vehicle type Ukraine Poland Other
Car 55.9 39.7 4.4
Minibus 81.5 16.7 1.9
Bus 97.3 2.0 0.7
Pickup / van 85.6 13.1 1.3
2 axle truck 92.9 6.0 1.1
3 axle truck 89.5 5.3 5.2
4 axle truck 84.2 15.8 0.0
5+ axle truck 58.3 35.2 6.5
Total 68.8 27.8 3.4
Source: Consultant’s surveys

The next table shows the proportion of domestic, international (with either an origin or destination
in Ukraine) and transit trips made by vehicle type. Overall, 48 percent of journeys were domestic.
Most of the rest of the traffic was international traffic, with virtually no transit traffic observed except
for large trucks (3 percent). The proportion of international traffic was highest for large trucks (85
percent).

Table 3.11 Domestic, international and transit trips by vehicle type (%)
Vehicle type Domestic International Transit Total
Car 44.0 55.3 0.7 100.0
Minibus 45.9 53.8 0.2 100.0
Bus 85.6 14.1 0.3 100.0
Pickup / van 54.7 45.3 0.0 100.0
2 axle truck 71.4 28.6 0.0 100.0
3 axle truck 63.2 36.8 0.0 100.0
4 axle truck 27.8 72.2 0.0 100.0
5+ axle truck 11.2 85.4 3.4 100.0
Total 47.9 51.4 0.7 100.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

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Table 3.12 shows the proportion of trucks observed to be empty, fully loaded and partially loaded
by type of truck. Overall, 44 percent of trucks were empty and 31 percent were fully loaded. Larger
trucks were more fully loaded than smaller trucks. The average loading of all trucks was 44
percent.

Table 3.12 Truck loading by type of truck (%)

Truck type Empty Partially Fully loaded Total
loaded
2 axle truck 39.2 32.7 28.1 100.0
3 axle truck 53.0 23.5 23.5 100.0
4 axle truck 50.0 12.5 37.5 100.0
5+ axle truck 35.9 15.5 48.6 100.0
Total 44.3 24.4 31.3 100.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

If it is assumed that, overall, partially loaded trucks are half full, the average weight of freight
carried by type of truck is estimated to be 11 tonnes, as shown in the table below.

Table 3.13 Average load by type of truck (tonnes)

Truck type Typical Loading Average
payload rate load
2 axle truck 7.5 44.4% 3.3
3/4 axle truck 15.0 39.9% 5.9
5+ axle truck 25.0 56.4% 14.1
Total 18.0 43.5% 11.0
Source: Consultant’s surveys

It was not possible to develop a conventional traffic model within the scope of the current project.
However, an analysis of the data enabled estimates to be made of the traffic that could potentially
transfer to the proposed new road.

On the M-10 between Krakovets and L’viv, the existing traffic is estimated to be 3280 AADT
between Krakovets and Yavoriv, 6180 AADT between Yavoriv and Ivano-Frankove and 8370 AADT
between Ivano-Frankove and the Lviv ring road. The origins and destinations of this traffic were
analysed to determine the traffic that could potentially transfer to the proposed new road, using
either its whole length between Krakovets and L’viv or individual sections.

In addition, long distance traffic that currently uses the M-09 or M-11 could potentially transfer to
the new road if it offered a faster, safer route, even if it resulted in a longer journey distance.

The resulting potential traffic volumes on the proposed new road are shown in Table 3.14. These
are the estimated highest volumes that could be achieved, assuming that all traffic that could
potentially transfer does so. Furthermore, it is assumed that no tolls are charged - if tolls were
charged, a certain amount of traffic would inevitably be deterred from using the road and the
eventual traffic volume would be dependent on the toll level.

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 Table 3.14 Estimated potential traffic on proposed new road by section, AADT 2013
Existing New road section
route M06/M09 M09 L’viv/ Ivano- Yavoriv/
used L’viv Ivano-Frankove Frankove/Yavoriv Krakovets

Cars
M-10 623 4988 3957 1170
M-11 851 851 1133 1133
M-09 640 640 748 748
Total 2114 6479 5838 3051

Buses
M-10 71 791 731 235
M-11 34 34 48 48
M-09 47 47 52 52
Total 152 872 831 335

Trucks
M-10 266 681 670 373
M-11 113 113 134 134
M-09 241 241 268 268
Total 620 1035 1072 775

TOTAL
M-10 960 6460 5358 1778
M-11 998 998 1315 1315
M-09 928 928 1068 1068
TOTAL 2886 8386 7741 4161
Source: Consultant’s analysis

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4 TRAFFIC FORECAST

The forecasting parameters were based on the forecast produced for the TEN-T project. The base
year of the original forecast was 2009 and incorporated forecasts of GDP, population, regional
development and car ownership. During the course of the current study, the inputs to the
forecasting procedure were updated and extended to 2013.

4.1 Socio-economic data

GDP

In the TEN-T project, national GDP growth during the period 2000 to 2008 was obtained from the
IMF database. This data has since been revised slightly by the IMF and is shown in the table
below.

Table 4.1 GDP growth per year (%)

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2010 5.9 9.2 5.2 9.6 12.1 2.7 7.3 7.9 2.1
2013 5.9 9.1 5.2 9.5 12.1 3.0 7.4 7.6 2.3
Source: IMF

In 2010, forecast national GDP growth was obtained from IMF data to 2015. Table 4.2 shows how
actual growth to date differs from the forecast, and provides the revised forecast to 2015. From
this table it can be seen that growth was higher than forecast in 2009, 2010 and 2011 but lower in
2012. It is now forecast to be lower between 2013 and 2015.

Table 4.2 GDP growth forecast per year 2009-2015 (%)

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2010 -15.1 3.7 4.5 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.0
2013 -14.8 4.1 5.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 3.5
Source: IMF

Beyond 2015, growth was previously assumed to be:

 5 percent per year from 2016 to 2020

 4.5 percent per year from 2021 to 2030
 4 percent per year thereafter.

This has now been revised to 3.5 percent per year from 2016.

Car ownership

In the TEN-T project, car ownership per capita from 2000 to 2007 was estimated based on data
obtained from the Statistical Yearbook and the IMF database. This has been revised based on the
latest available data and is shown in the table below. The table also shows how car ownership has
developed since 2007 and is compared with the forecast previously made. It can be seen that
actual ownership has increased faster than was forecast and had reached 152 cars per 1000
population in 2011.

In the revised forecast, a car ownership rate of 300 per 1000 population is reached in 2039 and
400 per 1000 population in 2050. This compares with a rate of 250 per 1000 population in 2050 in
the TEN-T project.

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 Table 4.3 Car ownership in Ukraine, 2000 - 2011
TEN-T project 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Car ownership (‘000 cars) 5250 5313 5400 5525 5446 5539 5604 5940
Cars / 1000 population 107.9 110.1 112.9 116.5 115.6 118.5 120.6 128.6
GDP / capita growth (%) 6.8 10.1 6.1 10.4 12.9 3.5 8.0

Revised 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Car ownership (‘000 cars) 5250 5313 5400 5525 5446 5539 5604 5940
Cars / 1000 population 107.0 109.3 112.1 115.6 114.9 117.7 120.0 128.0
GDP / capita growth (%) 6.9 10.1 6.1 10.5 13.0 3.7 8.2

2008 2009 2010 2011

Forecast ownership 5972 5738 5793 5861
Actual ownership (‘000 cars) 6394 6519 6769 6901
Cars / 1000 population 138.6 142.0 148.1 151.6
GDP / capita growth (%) 8.3 2.9 -14.4 4.6
Source: Statistical Yearbook and IMF

Table 4.4 Forecast car ownership in Ukraine, 2020 - 2050

TEN-T project 2020 2030 2040 2050
Car ownership (‘000 cars) 7837 9516 11554 14029
Cars / 1000 population 181.8 236.8 308.5 401.9
Source: Consultant’s analysis

Figure 4.1 Forecast car ownership in Ukraine, 2020 - 2050

Source: Consultant’s analysis

Population

The national population of Ukraine is available from various sources, including the Statistical
Yearbook of Ukraine, the Institute of Demography and the IMF database. The TEN-T study used
data from the IMF database. This has now been revised slightly and is shown in the table below.

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 Table 4.5 National population of Ukraine 2000-2009 (million)
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 48.664 48.241 47.823 47.442 47.101 46.749 46.466 46.192 45.936 45.706
2013 49.115 48.664 48.241 47.823 47.442 47.101 46.749 46.466 46.192 45.963
Source: IMF

The IMF database also includes a forecast of population to 2018. This is now more consistent with
the forecast of the Institute of Demography and is shown in Table 4.6.

Table 4.6 Forecast population of Ukraine 2010-2018 (million)

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
million 45.783 45.598 45.453 45.226 45.000 44.775 44.551 44.328 44.107
Source: IMF

The Institute of Demography has produced a regional forecast of population to the year 2030 and
a national forecast to the year 2050. The table below shows the data for the country as a whole
and the L’viv oblast. Overall, the population is forecast to continue to decline, although the decline
in population in the L’viv oblast is forecast to be less than the average decline for the country as a
whole.

Table 4.7 Population forecast 2010-2050 (million)

Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ukraine 45.713 43.731 41.545 39.471 37.311
Lviv 2.527 2.474 2.417 2.356 2.279
Source: Institute of Demography (national forecast and regional forecast to 2030) and Consultant’s analysis (regional forecast 2030 -
2050)

Regional development

In the TEN-T study, forecast growth in GDP was adjusted on a regional basis according to analysis
of regional GDP growth between 2000 and 2006. L’viv oblast was found to have been growing
below the national average and was given a regional development factor of 0.85. In the current
study the adjustment was extended to 2010 and L’viv oblast was found to have been growing
closer to the national average and is now, therefore, given a regional development factor of 1.0.

4.2 Revised general forecasts

The global traffic forecasts of the TEN-T project were updated on the basis of the revised forecast
parameters set out above. They are shown in the tables and figures below for passengers and
freight.

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Table 4.8 Forecast of long distance passengers by mode per day, 2010 - 2050

Source: Consultant’s analysis

Figure 4.2 Forecast of long distance passengers by mode, 2010 - 2050

(‘000 passengers per day and %)

Source: Consultant’s analysis

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 Table 4.9 Forecast of freight transported by mode, 2010 - 2050 (tonnes per day)

Source: Consultant’s analysis

Figure 4.3 Forecast of freight transported by mode, 2010 - 2050

(‘000 tonnes per day and %)

Source: Consultant’s analysis

4.3 Traffic forecasts

Based on the general forecasts set out in 4.2 above, the following annual growth factors for each
type of road vehicle were derived.

Table 4.10 Annual growth factors by vehicle type (% per annum)

2010 - 2019 2020 - 2029 2030 - 2039 2040 - 2049
Cars 3.64 4.39 4.39 4.39
Buses 1.31 1.23 0.56 -0.72
Trucks 1.55 2.06 2.05 2.05
Source: Consultant’s analysis

Applying these growth factors to the 2013 base year traffic results in the future traffic volumes on
the existing roads shown in the table below. Forecast traffic on the proposed new road is shown in
the subsequent table.

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Table 4.11 Forecast traffic on existing roads by section (AADT)

Source: Consultant’s analysis

October 2013
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Table 4.12 Forecast traffic on proposed new road by section (AADT)

October 2013
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Table 4.12 (contd) Forecast traffic on proposed new road by section (AADT)

Source: Consultant’s analysis

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5 CONCLUSIONS

Table 5.1 shows a summary of the forecast traffic on the proposed new road.

On the one hand this forecast may be regarded as somewhat optimistic since it is assumed that
no tolls are charged to use the road and that all traffic that could switch to the new facility does so.

On the other hand it does not consider the following, all of which could lead to higher traffic
volumes:

 the effect of congestion on the existing roads that will increase over time
 induced traffic that might be generated as a result of the construction of the new
infrastructure
 the effect of the reduction or removal of border crossing delays
 the effect of the possible signing by Ukraine of an Association Agreement with the EU.

Furthermore, the forecast does not consider different construction scenarios.

The above issues could all be considered and the data now available would be sufficient to do this,
but a simple traffic model would need to be developed which is beyond the scope of the resources
available during the current assignment. Such a model would also facilitate the calculation and
transfer to the economic analysis of changes in vehicle kilometres and vehicle hours with and
without the project. These would be used for the calculation of vehicle operating cost savings, time
benefits, safety benefits and environmental benefits.

Overall, however, it is believed that the forecast gives a good indication of potential traffic volumes.
It is recommended that the forecast is now incorporated in an updated economic evaluation. If this
evaluation shows that the economic benefits are rather low, then it may not be worth pursuing the
project further at this stage. However, if the evaluation produces marginal or positive results, then
further work should be carried out to refine the forecasts along the lines suggested above.

October 2013
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Table 5.1 Summary of forecast traffic on proposed new road by section (AADT)

Source: Consultant’s analysis

October 2013
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ANNEXES

October 2013
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ANNEX 1: Survey manual

October 2013
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 UKRAINE

TRAFFIC SURVEYS
FOR THE
LVIV-KRAKOVETS ROAD PROJECT

SURVEY MANUAL

SEPTEMBER 2013

October 2013
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1. INTRODUCTION

This survey is being carried out as part of the project for reconstruction and improvement of the Lviv-
Krakovets road in Ukraine. In order to understand better the traffic movements in the region, a programme of
automatic traffic counts, origin-destination surveys and manual classified counts is to be carried out.

This manual is an introduction to the survey and a detailed reference which sets out the way in which the
surveys will be undertaken. All staff involved in survey had training relevant to their role in the survey and
were familiarised with the survey procedures. The manual is based on the requirements set out in the terms
of reference and following the recommendations and requirements of the Consultant.

2. THE SURVEY

The traffic survey comprises the following main activities:

 automatic traffic counts (ATCs) at 3 locations for 7 days each

 manual classified counts (MCCs) at 5 locations for 24 hours each
 origin-destination (OD) surveys at 5 locations for 16 hours each.

The MCCs and OD interview surveys will be carried out at the same sites during the same days.

The ATC and MCCs will consist of a count of all vehicles passing the survey station in each direction
separately in hourly periods, with the type of each vehicle being recorded.

The OD interviews will consist of asking a sample of the drivers of vehicles travelling in each direction about
the journey they are making. This task will be carried out continuously from 6am to 10pm (corresponding to
daylight hours) at each location. The target sample size will vary by location and will be specified.

The region of the survey is shown on the following figure:

Legend
Rava-Ruska
1 OD+MCC 5
ATC

Krakovets Yavoriv Novoiavorivsk Ivano

1 Frankovo
2
3
Lviv
Shegini
4
Figure 1. Survey region and location of survey sites

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3. GENERAL GUIDELINES

All members of the survey team will work according to the specified procedures. This will ensure the
consistency of the data and avoid ambiguity. Consequently, all survey staff will be checked regularly and
strictly to make sure that the procedures are followed exactly.

All information collected during the course of the surveys is confidential and will not be divulged to any
person outside the study.

It is essential that during the surveys all team members remain courteous and polite. Punctuality is of utmost
importance in this study and will be strictly enforced.

Safety is of over-riding importance. It is important to follow any safety advice provided by this document.
Surveyors will wear high-visibility jackets at all times when at the survey site.

Figure 2. Safety jackets and temporary traffic management equipment

4. COMPOSITION OF THE SURVEY TEAMS AND THEIR ORGANISATION

4.1 Team composition

A SUPERVISOR will be with each team at all times. In addition, the SURVEY MANAGER will be on site
intermittently.

MCC teams will generally consist of two ENUMERATORS per location. One enumerator will count traffic in
each direction.

OD interviews will be performed by INTERVIEWERS and in general there will be four INTERVIEWERS
working at any one time.

RELIEF staff will be on site in order for breaks to be taken.

A FLAGGER will direct vehicles on the survey site.

POLICE OFFICERS will be present to ensure the security of the survey sites.

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4.2 Site organisation

The survey sites are located on road sections indicated by the Consultant. Precise locations have been
chosen in coordination with road authorities and traffic police. Sites will be equipped with necessary traffic
management and traffic safety equipment including signs, cones etc.

The enumerators carrying out the classified counts will be located before the interviewers in each respective
direction. This is to ensure that a vehicle is registered in the same time period by both the enumerators and
the interviewers.

interviews

interviews
enumerator
police
Figure 3. Survey station layout

5. THE OD SURVEY OPERATION

Interviews will be conducted throughout a 16 hour survey period corresponding to the hours of daylight
(06h00 - 22h00) and the interviewers must not stop during this period unless explicitly told to do so or are
relieved by another interviewer.

The positions of the interviewers will be spaced along the survey station and they will signal to the driver
where he should stop. The interviewer will then speak to the driver and give him a brief explanation of the
survey and explain that he would like to ask a few questions about his journey. (Eg. 'Good morning. We are
conducting a survey on behalf of an EU/Ukraine cooperation project with a goal to improve transport
infrastructure in Ukraine and I would like to ask you a few questions about the journey you are making....').
The interviewer will then complete the survey form according to the instructions in the following section.
When the interview is complete, the interviewer will thank the driver for his help and allow him to continue on
his way. From time to time, a driver may refuse to be interviewed. In this case, the interviewer will remain
polite and allow him to leave the survey station as soon as it is safe to do so.

Interviewers have a tendency to step backwards on completion of the interview. THIS IS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS as traffic may be passing behind the interviewer and extreme caution must be taken at all
times.

The supervisor will be responsible for collecting forms from the interviewers and placing them in the
envelopes marked with the details of the survey station. The following information must be marked on each
envelope:

- station number
- survey direction
- date
- observations eg. missing forms, unforeseen time periods, unexpected occurrences etc.

6. FILLING IN THE FORM

The survey form shown in Figure 4 will be filled in carefully and clearly in pencil. All details will be completed
on every form. The information collected must be written in the large spaces on the form and nothing will be
written in the small coding boxes.

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 Figure 4. OD survey form

October 2013
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Each time a new form is begun, the general information requested at the top of each form must be filled in.
Under no circumstances may this be left blank.

Each form has space for up to 10 interviews. A new form must be started when all the 10 spaces have been
filled. A new form must also be started at the start of a new hourly period, even if the 10 spaces have not all
been completed. In the case where no vehicle passes the survey station in an hourly period, the top of the
form must nevertheless be completed.

Station

Interviewers will write the relevant station number in the space provided. Stations are numbered as follows:

Site # Road # Location of the survey point Survey date

1 M-10 between the town of Yavoriv and the border checkpoint 19/09/2013
2 M-10 between the town of Novoyavorivsk and the village of 17/09/2013
Nakonechne Pershe
3 M-10 between the village of Pidryasne and the town of Ivano-Frankove 18/09/2013
4 M-11 between the town of Mostyska and the border checkpoint 19/09/2013
5 M-09 between the town of Rava-Ruska and the border checkpoint 17/09/2013

Direction

Interviews are to be carried out in both directions. The directions are assigned as follows:

 1 for the direction towards Lviv

 2 for the direction towards the border.

The supervisor will ensure that all team members are aware of the direction number.

Date

All surveys are to be conducted in September 2013. The day of the month of the survey must be written in
the space provided.

Hour

The hour is the time at the start of the hourly period within which the form is commenced. The time must be
written according to the 24 hour clock. For example, if a new form is started at 17 minutes past 4 o'clock in
the afternoon, then the hour is 16h00, and “16” should be written in the space provided. The supervisor will
indicate the end of each hourly period.

Interviewer

The interviewer should write his name in the space provided.

Coded by

This should be left blank until coding is performed.

Serial number

This should be left blank.

Vehicle type

When a vehicle is directed towards an interviewer the type of vehicle should be noted in the space provided,
according to the categories listed at the bottom of the form. The code for the relevant category should be
written in the space provided.

The following vehicle types are categorised:

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car/taxi - write CAR in the space provided.

This includes private cars, and all other small vehicles such as 4 wheel drive vehicles, passenger vans etc.
WHICH ARE BEING USED AS PRIVATE VEHICLES. Taxis should also be included in this category.

minibus - write MB in the space provided.

This includes minibuses and small buses of up to 9 seats BEING USED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF FARE
PAYING PASSENGERS.

bus - write BUS in the space provided.

This includes all standard and large buses with more than 9 seats and usually having about 52 seats, being
used for the transport of passengers.

van or pick-up - write VAN in the space provided.

Vans and pick-ups are small vehicles used predominantly for the transport of goods.

2 axle truck - write T2 in the space provided.

2 axle trucks are trucks with a total of two axles, including the front axle.

3 axle truck - write T3 in the space provided.

3 axle trucks are trucks with a total of three axles, with a single axle at the front and two axles at the rear.

4 axle truck - write T4 in the space provided.

4 axle trucks are trucks or truck - trailer combinations with 4 axles in any formation.

5+ axle truck - write T5 in the space provided.

5+ axle trucks comprise all trucks or truck - trailer combinations with 5 or more axles in any formation.

If the type of vehicle is not clear, a description of it should be written in the space provided and detailed in
the space reserved for notes if necessary.

Country of registration

This information relates to the country in which the vehicle is registered. It will usually be obvious from the
number plate, although on some occasions it may be necessary to ask the driver or to refer to the
international registration plate on the rear of the vehicle. Write the international registration code letters in
the space provide. For vehicles registered in Ukraine, write "UA".

Examples of the codes for other countries from which vehicles may be encountered include:

PL - Poland
D - Germany
CZ - Czech Republic etc.

No. of occupants

Write down the number of occupants, INCLUDING THE DRIVER but excluding children under 5 years. For a
truck, this should include any people who may be travelling in the rear.

Where are you coming from? (Origin)

Generally, it will be possible to fill in quickly the first three items above as the vehicle approaches. This is the
first question which will be addressed to the driver, after a brief explanation of the survey. If at this point the
driver refuses to answer any questions, 'refused' should be written on the interview form. If the driver says
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that he has already been interviewed, he should still be asked to respond to the questions since he will be
making a separate journey.

The object of this question is to find out where the driver started the journey he is currently making. The
drivers of vehicles should be asked, "WHERE DID YOU START YOUR JOURNEY?"

The name of the town or village the driver says should be written in the space provided.

The name of the region (or country if outside Ukraine) in which that town or village is located should be
written in the next column. However, if the town is obvious and unambiguous (eg. Lviv, Kiev, Rivne etc.), it is
not necessary to note the region. If the town is outside Ukraine, the country should always be noted. In this
case it is acceptable to write the international vehicle plate abbreviation for the country.

The location should be the place where the driver started the journey. Stops en route, for example for petrol,
to buy food, to sleep, should be ignored.

Some particular situations may arise:

Private cars:

- trips may be local eg. from Lviv to Krakovets and back to Lviv. In this case, the origin is Lviv if he is
travelling towards Krakovets, or Krakovets if he is travelling towards Lviv.
- trips may be long distance eg. from Vienna to Kiev. In this case the origin is Vienna.

Taxis:

- the origin is the place where the passengers were picked up.

Buses:

- the origin is the place where the bus started this particular journey. For example, a bus running
between Yavoriv and Lviv several times a day has an origin of either Yavoriv or Lviv, depending on
the direction in which it is travelling when surveyed.

Trucks:

- trips may be local, stopping at many places to pick up and deliver goods. In this case, the origin is
the starting point of the journey today.
- trips may be long distance eg. from Dresden to Astana. In this case the origin is Dresden.

Why were you there? / What is that place?

This question aims to find out the type of place the driver is coming from. Is it his home? Is it his place of
work or somewhere he has been in connection with his work? Or is it some other place?

Three categories are pre-coded. The code of the appropriate category should be circled.

home - circle H.

Home is the permanent principal residence of a person, or the place he is currently living and where he
generally spends at least 4 nights per week.

If the person is a foreigner, the place he regularly stays at night while in the region should be classed as his
home. However, a person who is spending up to 3 nights away from home for the purposes of work should
be coded as work (see below).

work - circle W.

Work includes the permanent place of work of the driver or a place the driver has visited for work purposes
(employers' business). A permanent place of work might be a shop, an office, a school etc. A place visited for
work purposes includes places visited by a businessman in the course of his work, the place a truck driver
picked up goods or the place that a bus driver picked up passengers.
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The drivers of trucks and buses should normally be included in this category, unless they are using the
vehicle for private purposes and a different category is appropriate, or if they are driving from their home at
the start of the day's work, in which case they should be included in the category 'home'.

other - circle O.

This includes all other purposes not connected with work:

- the use of services such as banks, lawyers, health centres, hospitals, barbers, churches etc.
- shopping
- education (but note that teachers would be coming from a place of work)
- social visits, cinemas, sports etc.
- tourism.

Where are you going? (Destination)

The object of this question is to find out where the driver will end the journey he is currently making. The
drivers of vehicles should be asked, "WHERE WILL YOU END YOUR JOURNEY?"

The name of the town or village the driver says should be written in the space provided.

The name of the region (or country if outside Ukraine) in which that town or village is located should be
written in the next column. However, if the town is obvious and unambiguous (eg. Lviv, Rivne, Jitomir etc.), it
is not necessary to note the region. If the town is outside Ukraine, the country should always be noted. In
this case it is acceptable to write the international vehicle plate abbreviation for the country.

The location should be the place where the driver will end the journey. Stops en route, for example for petrol,
to buy food, to sleep, should be ignored.

Some particular situations may arise:

Private cars:

- trips may be local eg. from Lviv to Krakovets and back to Lviv. In this case, the destination is
Krakovets if he is travelling towards Krakovets, or Lviv if he is travelling towards Lviv.
- trips may be long distance eg. from Vienna to Kiev. In this case the destination is Kiev.

Taxis:

- the destination is the place where the passengers will be set down.

Buses:

- the destination is the place where the bus will end this particular journey. For example, a bus
running between Yavoriv and Lviv several times a day has a destination of either Yavoriv or Lviv,
depending on the direction in which it is travelling when surveyed.

Trucks:

- trips may be local, stopping at many places to pick up and deliver goods. In this case, the
destination is the end point of the journey today.
- trips may be long distance eg. from Dresden to Astana. In this case the destination is Astana.

Why are you going there? / What is that place?

The reason for going to this place should be written in the space provided, following the guidelines set out in
paragraph “Why were you there” above.

Truck loading

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If the vehicle is a truck, indicate whether it is empty (0), fully loaded (1) or partially loaded (1/2).

POINTS TO BE NOTED

All information collected will be coded and entered in a computer. This will enable extensive and rigorous
checks to be made on the data. Several cross-checks can be made in the field, however, and interviewers
should always review completed interviews to check that the information is logical and complete.

There are certain things which can be checked very quickly:

- is the number of occupants reasonable for the type of vehicle?

- is the driver coming from the direction of the town which he says is his origin, and is he driving in the
direction of his stated destination?
- a person should not have the same origin as his destination.
- a person cannot make a journey from home to home.

Review each interview and correct any errors!

The questions must be asked exactly as instructed. The person being interviewed must not be influenced or
prompted to provide an answer which the interviewer thinks is obvious. If the response is not clear then the
question should be asked again or clarified.

7. TRAFFIC COUNTS

The manual classified traffic counts will be carried out during a 24 hour period, from midnight to midnight.
There is absolutely no acceptable reason for stopping the count. In exceptional circumstances it may be
necessary to stop interviews for a short period but the traffic count must continue. When interviews are in
progress, the persons conducting the counts shall be located at the positions shown in Figure 3.

The manual classified traffic count form is shown below. Vehicles are recorded separately for each direction
by hourly period for 24 hours. Each vehicle must be recorded the moment it passes the census point using
only the system shown in Figure 5. The first vehicle is represented by a vertical line, as is the second, third
and fourth. The fifth vehicle of a particular category is represented by a horizontal line drawn through the
preceding four vertical lines. In this way, vehicles are recorded in multiples of 5. No other system of
recording may be used. The vehicle categories are described in detail in paragraph 6 above. Note, however,
that BICYCLES, MOTORCYCLES, AGRICULTURAL VEHICLES and ANIMAL DRAWN VEHICLES should
also be counted, even though they are not to be interviewed.

Unusual vehicles should be recorded under "other" with a note describing the vehicle.

If the space for a one hour period is not sufficient, then the next space below (or on the following sheet)
should be used, with the "hour" column completed accordingly.

At the end of each hourly period, the next row on the form should be used, or a new form if appropriate. If
traffic is light, totals may be calculated and written on the form. However, THEY MUST NOT BE WRITTEN
IN THE CODING BOXES.

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 Figure 5. Manual classified count form

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8. DATA PROCESSING

OD data

Supervisors shall return OD survey data forms to the survey office in envelopes, with a separate envelope
for each survey station and each direction. The first task of data processing is to ensure that for each
station and direction the survey forms are in time order.

The data should then be coded according to the following instructions.

Coding is to be done in red ink, using the small coding boxes on the survey forms. Where appropriate,
codes should be right justified.

Part of the coding task is to check that all data is correct and logical.

Missing data

If data is missing but the value is known for certain (eg. the station number is missing), then the known
value should be coded. Under no circumstances should values be guessed. If a value is missing and is
unknown, the relevant code for missing data should be entered.

Serial number

A serial number should first be written on each survey form in the boxes specified for this purpose. The
first sheet of direction 1 station 1 should be given the serial number “1”. Serial numbers should then be
attributed sequentially to subsequent survey forms, ordered by time, direction and station number.

Station

Write the station number in the coding box.

If the value is missing and unknown, enter 99.

Direction towards

Check the direction (1 or 2) for consistency with other general data – enumerator’s name, survey station,
date etc and write the correct number.

If the value is missing and unknown, enter 9.

Date

Write the date of the month (1 - 31) in the coding boxes.

Hour

Write the hour (0 - 23) in the coding boxes.

Interviewer

Write the code for the interviewer in the coding boxes. The Survey Manager will provide a list of
interviewers and codes.

01 - name of interviewer
02 - name of interviewer
03 - name of interviewer etc

99 - missing

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Coded by

Write the code for the coder in the coding boxes. The Survey Manager will provide a list of coders and
codes.

01 - name of coder
02 - name of coder
03 - name of coder etc

Vehicle type

Write the code of the vehicle type in the coding box. The following codes should be used:

1 - car / taxi
2 - minibus
3 - bus
4 - van / pickup
5 - 2 axle truck
6 - 3 axle truck
7 - 4 axle truck
8 - 5 or more axle truck
9 - other

99 - missing

Country of registration

Write the code corresponding to the country of registration. The following codes shall be used:

UA - Ukraine
PL - Poland
D - Germany
CZ - Czech Republic
etc.

99 - missing

Number of occupants

Write the number of occupants in the coding boxes. Check that it is logical for the type of vehicle.

99 - missing

Origin

Write the code for the zone within which the origin is located. The Survey Manager will provide a list of
zone codes. Check that the origin zone is logical for the survey station and direction of travel.

1- Lviv
2- Ivano-Frankove
3- Novoyavorivske
4- Yavoriv
5- Krakovets
6- Horodok
7- Sudova Vyshnia
8- Mostyska
9- Shehyni
10 - Zhovkha
11 - Rava Ruska
12 - Rava Ruska border crossing post

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13 - M-06 south of Lviv
14 - M-12 east
15 - M-06 east
16 - PL: Przemysl, Medyka, Sanok
17 - PL: Radymno
18 - PL: Jaroslaw
19 - PL: Labaczow
20 - PL: Rzeszow, Lezajsk
21 - PL south and beyond (Krakow, Katowice, Czech Republic etc)
22 - PL north and beyond (Warsaw, Gdansk, Poznan etc)
23 - PL: Tomaszow Lubelski, Lublin, Chelm, Zamosc
24 - Sambir

99 - Missing, not known

Origin purpose

Write the code for the origin purpose in the coding box. The following codes should be used:

H-1
W-2
O-3

Missing - 9

Destination

Write the code for the zone within which the destination is located. The Survey Manager will provide a list
of zone codes (see table of origin zones above). Check that the destination zone is logical for the survey
station and direction of travel.

Destination purpose

Write the code for the destination purpose in the coding box. The following codes should be used:

H-1
W-2
O-3

Missing - 9

Check that the purpose is logical. If the origin purpose is home, the destination purpose should be work or
other, but not home, and vice versa.

Truck loading

Write the code for the truck loading in the coding box. The following codes should be used:

0-0
½-5
1-1

Not applicable - blank

Missing - 9

Check that truck loading is only coded if the vehicle type is a truck.

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11.2 MCC data

The MCC data forms are to be returned to the survey office in envelopes, with a separate envelope for
each survey station and each direction.

The first task of data processing is to ensure that for each station and direction the survey forms are in
time order.

The data should then be coded according to the following instructions.

Coding is to be done in red ink, using the small coding boxes on the survey forms. Where appropriate,
codes should be right justified.

Part of the coding task is to check that all data is correct and logical.

Missing data

If data is missing but the value is known for certain (eg. the station number is missing), then the known
value should be coded. Under no circumstances should values be guessed. If a value is missing and is
unknown, the relevant code for missing data should be entered.

Serial number

A serial number should first be written on each count form in the boxes specified for this purpose. The first
sheet of direction 1 station 1 should be given the serial number “1”. Serial numbers should then be
attributed sequentially to subsequent count forms, ordered by time, direction and station number.

Station

Write the station number in the coding box.

If the value is missing and unknown, enter 99.

Direction towards

Check the direction (1 or 2) for consistency with other general data – enumerator’s name survey station,
date etc and write correct number.

If the value is missing and unknown, enter 9.

Date

Write the date (0 - 31) in the coding boxes.

Enumerator

Write the code for the enumerator in the coding boxes. The Survey Manager will provide a list of
enumerators and codes.

01 - name of enumerator
02 - name of enumerator
03 - name of enumerator etc

99 - missing

Checked by

Write the code for the coder / checker in the coding boxes. The Survey Manager will provide a list of
coders and codes.

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01 - name of coder
02 - name of coder
03 - name of coder etc

Hour

Write the hour (0 - 23) in the coding boxes.

Data

If the number of vehicles of each type and hour has been totalled by the enumerator, the total should be
checked and entered in the coding boxes. If it has not been totalled, it should be totalled by the
enumerator and entered in the coding boxes.

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 This assessment has been produced by: the Corporate Solutions Ltd (United Kingdom) and Systra SA
(France) Consortium. It reflects the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the European Union or
those of the European Commission

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