2nd International ASRANet Colloquium 2004 Programme

at Fira Palace Hotel, Barcelona

Monday 5th July 2004

0800 Registration.

0845 Opening session.

The opening address will be given by Professor Eugenio Onate, Director of CIMNE

Session 1 Structural Risk Management, Human and Organisational Factors

Co-chairs: Professor M J Baker, University of Aberdeen, UK, Dr Julian Austin, Fraser-
Nash Consultancy, UK

0900 Keynote paper: Implementation of human factors analysis in QRA & SRA.
Professor Ove Gudmestad, Statoil, Norway & Dr Roger Stolnes, Holte Prosjekt,
Norway
0930 Health And Safety Risks: Important in Choosing Construction Processes and in
Quantitative Construction Risk Analysis? Dr A. Maitra and Dr T.D.G.. Canisius,
BRE Ltd, UK
0945 Strategies For Probabilistic Assessment Of Sub-Sea Trenched Pipelines. Dr
Tatjana Micic, University of London, UK
1000 Towards the Integration of Human and Organisation Factors in Risk Assessment.
A Case Study for the Marine Industry. Dr Mauro Pedrali, D’Appolonia S.p.A.; Dr
Paolo Trucco, Dr Enrico Cagno, Politecnico di Milano; and Dr Fabrizio Ruggeri,
CNR IMATI, Italy
1015 Risk Management Framework for Structural Assets. Dr Navil Shetty, Atkins Rail
UK
1030 Discussion

1100-1120 Tea

Session 2 Management of Deteriorating Structures

Co-chairs: Professor Nigel Barltrop Universities of Glasgow & Strathclyde, UK, Dr Anup
Puri, BAe Systems, UK
1120 Keynote paper: Health Monitoring And Life-Cycle Performance Of Structural
Systems. Professor Yozo Fujino, University of Tokyo, Japan & Professor Dan
Frangopol, University of Colorado, USA
1150 Use of Zero-Defect Correction Approach On Erroneous Corrosion Data For
Pipeline Remaining LifeTime Evaluation. Mr Norhazilan Bin Md Noor, and
Professor Julian Wolfram, Heriot-Watt University, UK
1205 Aspects Of Modelling Uncertainty In Predicting Chloride Induced Deterioration
For Concrete Bridges. M. Imran Rafiq, Professor Marios K Chrysanthopoulos, Dr
Toula Onoufriou, University of Surrey, UK
1220 Life Cycle Risk Assessment Of Geotechnical Structures In Degrading Soil. Ms
Mona Abd Alghaffar, and Dr Christina Dymiotis-Wellington, City University, UK
1235 Modelling The Deterioration Of The Structural Capacity Of Reinforced Concrete
Beams Due To Corrosion In Saline Environments. Professor Robert E Melchers,

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 The University of Newcastle, Australia; Dr C Q Li, Dr W Lawanwisut, and Z J
Chen, University of Dundee, UK
1250 Discussion
1315-1430 Lunch
Session 3 Seismic Risk and Reliability Assessment 1
Co-chairs: Professor J R Casas, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Spain, Dr Toula
Onoufriou, University of Surrey, UK
1430 Keynote paper: Risk assessment of buildings subjected to seismic loadings.
Application to Barcelona, Spain. Professor Alex H. Barbat, Technical University of
Catalonia, Spain
1500 Research Activity For The Definition Of The Conceptual Framework And
Operative Tools For The Design And The Analysis Of The Messina Bridge. Dr
Franco Bontempi, Mr Luciano Catallo, and Mr Luca Sgambi, University of Rome
“La Sapienza”, Italy
1515 Seismic Risk Evaluation and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Bridge Structures.
Professor Hitoshi Furuta, Kansai University, Japan; Mr Kazuhiro Koyama, Kansai
University, Japan; Professor Masahiro Dogaki, Kansai University, Japan; and
Professor Dan M. Frangopol, University of Colorado, USA
1530 Seismic Reliability Of Electric Power Transmission Systems. Professor Yan-
Gang Zhao, Professor Tetsuro Ono, and Dr Jun He, Nagoya Institute of
Technology, Japan
15.45 Discussion

1605-1625 Tea

Session 4 Computational Methods in ASA and SRA 1

Co-chairs: Professor K K Phoon, The National University of Singapore, Singapore,
Dr G Canisius, BRE, UK
1625 Keynote Paper: Structural Reliability Analysis Tool Box. Professor Ton
Vrouwenvelder, TU Delft, Netherlands and Professor Marios K
Chrysanthopoulos, University of Surrey, UK
1655 Application Of Fractile Correlations And Copulas to Non-Gaussian Random
Vectors. Professor K.K. Phoon, The National University of Singapore, Singapore
1710 Structural Reliability Analysis with Inclusion of Random Variables of Unknown
Distributions. Professor Yan-Gang Zhao, Professor Tetsuro Ono, Dr Jun He &
Yusen Lin, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Japan
1725 Damage Detection by Monte Carlo Filter with Adaptive Noises. Dr Ikumasa
Yoshida, Tokyo Electric Power Services Co. Ltd., Japan and Professor Tadanobu
Sato, Kyoto University, Japan
1740 Discussion
1755 Session ends

18.30 – 19.30 Reception at Fira Palace

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Tuesday 6th July 2004
Session 5 Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Planning
Co-chairs: Dr Zoubir Lounis, National Research Council, Canada, Dr C De Souza, HSE,
UK

0830 Keynote paper: Computational Aspects of Generic Risk Based Inspection

Planning. Professor Michael H. Faber and D Straub, Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology (ETH), Switzerland
0900 Development of RCM Requirements for the Marine Industry. Robert
M.Conachey, American Bureau of Shipping, USA
0915 Risk Based Maintenance Optimization of Bridge Structures. Dr Zoubir Lounis,
National Research Council, Canada
0930 Reliability-Based Comparison of Efficacy of Offshore Fatigue Inspection Plans.
Mark Manzocchi, Atkins, UK, Dr Alex Stacey, Health & Safety Executive, UK
and Dr Navil Shetty, Atkins Rail, UK
0945 Integration of Structural Reliability Analysis into the Reliability Centred
Maintenance approach during engineering systems life-cycle. Dr Claudia
Vivalda, Bureau Veritas, Italy, & Professor Andrea Carpignano, Politecnico di
Torino, Italy
1000 Discussion

1020-1040 Coffee

Session 6 Seismic Risk and Reliability Assessment 2

Co-chairs: Professor H Furuta, Kansai University, Japan. Dr Claudia Vivalda, Bureau
Veritas, Italy
1040 Seismic Reliability Analysis Using Response Surface: A Simplified Approach. Mr
Marko I.J. Schotanus, European School for Advanced Studies in Reduction of
Seismic Risk (ROSE school), Italy and Dr Paolo Franchin, University of Rome
“La Sapienza”, Italy
1055 Macro-Spatial Correlation Structure of Seismic Ground Motions of the 1999 Chi-
Chi Earthquake. Professor Tsuyoshi Takada, and Tetsuto Shimomura, University
of Tokyo, Japan
1110 Discussion

Session 7 Computational Methods in ASA and SRA 2

Co-chairs: Dr R Dow, Dstl, UK, Dr S. Yasseri, Halliburton KBR, UK
1130 Artificial neural network and its application to composite plate reliability analysis.
Ahmed M H Elhewy, Dr E. Mesbahi and Dr Yongchang Pu, School of Marine
Science and Technology, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
1145 An elasto-plastic total langrangian shell formulation for large displacements. P.D.
Gosling, and I.M. Roy, School of Engineering and Geoscience, University of
Newcastle, UK
1200 Probabilistic simulation based safety and serviceability assessment of steel
columns according to the second order theory. P. Konecny and Professor P.
Marek, VŠB Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic
1215 Safety and serviceability assessment of steel structures containing semi rigid
joints using probabilistic SBRA method. V. Krivy and Professor P. Marek, VŠB
Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic

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1230 Discussion

1300-1415 Lunch

Session 8 Integration of Structural Analysis, Risk and Reliability 1

Co-chairs: Professor Sankaran Mahadevan, Vanderbilt University, USA, Terry Rhodes,
Shell UK Ltd, UK
1415 Keynote paper: Risk-based optimisation of life-cycle costs for structural facilities.
Professor Rudiger Rackwitz, Technische Universitat Munchen, Germany
1445 Comparison of methods for computing the response coefficients in stochastic
finite element analysis. Dr Marc Berveiller, Electricité de France; Dr Bruno
Sudret, Electricité de France, Dr Maurice Lemaire, Institut Français de
Mécanique Avancée, France
1500 Structural Reliability of Ship Structures with Advanced Hull Girder Modelling.
Ioannis Moatsos, and Professor Purnendu K Das, Universities of Glasgow and
Strathclyde, UK
1515 The Integration of Structural Reliability Assessment and Structural Monitoring.
Professor M.J. Baker; Ian Stanley and Alex Warren, University of Aberdeen, UK

1530 A Systems Updating Approach For Proactive Health Monitoring Of Concrete

Bridges. M. Imran Rafiq; Professor Marios K Chrysanthopoulos; and Dr Toula
Onoufriou, University of Surrey, UK
1545 Discussion

1600 – 1620 Tea

Session 9 Integration of Structural Analysis, Risk and Reliability 2
Co-chairs: Dr Navil Shetty, Atkins, UK, Professor Enrico Rizutto, DINAV, University of
Genoa, Italy
1620 Probability of brittle fracture for a cracked ship. Dr J.S.Kent and J.D.G. Sumpter,
QinetiQ, UK
1635 Finite element reliability analysis of cooling towers submitted to degradation. Dr
Bruno Sudret, Electricité de France, Mr Gilles Defaux, Phimeca Engineering S.A,
France and Dr Maurice Pendola, Phimeca Engineering S.A, France
1650 Probabilistic Assessment of Fatigue Failure of Train Wheels. Julian Austin
1705 Structural analysis as enactment and sensemaking, Dr F Bontempi, University of
Rome “La Sapienza”, Italy
1720 Reliability Analysis of Railway Bridges under Train Dynamic loads Using
Response Surface Method. Professor Saeed Mohammadzadeh and Professor
Mohsen-Ali Shayanfar, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Iran
1735 Discussion

1930 Conference Dinner at Expo Hotel, Barcelona

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Wednesday 7th July 2004
Session 10 Probabilistic Load Modelling
Co-chairs: Phil Smedley, PAFA Consulting Engineers, UK & Dr J Garcia, Technical
University of Cataluna (UPC), Spain
0900 Extending Ferry-Borges Method For Combination Of Time Dependent Loads
With Invariant Modelling Uncertainties Using Form. Professor Engin Aktas, Izmir
Institute of Technology, Turkey
0915 Reliability calculations for design of FPSOs and FSUs against green water
loading. Dr E.J. Ballard, PAFA consulting engineers, UK; Professor N.D.P.
Barltrop, University of Glasgow and Strathclyde, UK; Mr A.J. Fyfe, P A F A
consulting engineers, UK; and Professor T.Hodgson, PAFA consulting engineers,
UK
0930 Reliability calculations for design of FPSOs and FSUs against wave slam. Dr
E.J. Ballard, P A F A consulting engineers, UK; Professor N.D.P. Barltrop,
University of Glasgow and Strathclyde, UK; Mr A.J. Fyfe, P A F A consulting
engineers, UK; and Professor T.Hodgson, P A F A consulting engineers, UK
0945 Probabilistic Hydrodynamic Loading on Seabed Structures. Mr Ivar R. Iversen,
Prospect Flow Solutions Limited, UK
1000 A New Probability Model For Offshore Structural Response Due To Random
Morison Wave Loading. Dr Gholamhossein Najafian, Professor R. Burrows and
Mr R.G. Tickell, University of Liverpool, UK
1015 Combination Of Stochastic Loads For A Reliability Evaluation Of The Hull Girder
In Extreme Conditions. Professor Enrico Rizzuto, DINAV-University of Genoa,
Italy
1030 Discussion

1050-1110 Coffee

Session 11 Reliability Based Design, Optimisation & Codes

Co-chairs: Dr Paul Hess, NSWCCD, USA, Professor Vedran Žanić, University of Zagreb,
Croatia
1110 Probabilistic Damage Analysis of Offshore Installations. Dr S. Yasseri, Halliburton
KBR, UK
1125 Application of Ship and Offshore Structures Limit State Criteria in ISO Standards.
Dr Paul Frieze, PAFA Consulting Engineers
1140 ABS Approach to Classification using Risk Analyses. Maria Verzbolovskis,
American Bureau of Shipping, USA
1155 Efficient Computational Strategies for Reliability-Based Optimization. Professor
Sankaran Mahadevan, Vanderbilt University, USA
1210 Sensitivity To Correlation Matrix In Reliability Based Design. Professor Vedran
Žanić, Josip Hozmec, Marko Stipčević, University of Zagreb, Croatia
1225 Efficient Tools For Reliability-Based Optimisation. Professor Jaroslav Mencik,
University of Pardubice, Czech Republic
1240 Discussion
1300 Session ends

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1300 – 1430 Lunch

Session 12 Risk Acceptance Criteria and Assessment for Accidental Events

Co-chairs: Dr Gerhard Ersdal, Petroleum Safety Authority Norway, Norway, Maria
Verzbolovskis, American Bureau of Shipping, USA

1430 Keynote Paper: Approaches to risk acceptance. Professor Tim Bedford,

Strathclyde University, UK
1500 Assessment of Large Panel System Buildings against Internal Gas Explosion
Pressures: The Need for a Risk-Based Approach. Dr T.D.G. Canisius, S.L.
Matthews, and B.R. Reeves, BRE Ltd, UK
1515 Coastal and River-Sea Ship Hull Risk Assessment. Dr Gennadiy V. Egorov,
Marine Engineering Bureau, Ukraine
1530 Deck Vibration Spectra for Minimum Structures due to Vessel Impacts. Dr Gage
S. Grewal, MMI, UK
1545 Economic Optimal Reserve Strength for a Jacket Structure. Dr Gerhard Ersdal,
Petroleum Safety Authority Norway, Norway
1600 Reliability Analysis Of Bridge Piers Against Scouring. N. A. Siddiqui, M.
Muzammil, and A. F. Siddiqui, Aligarh Muslim University, India
1600 Discussion

1635 Closing Remarks

1645 Conference Ends

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