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Block 15-1
June 2011
LIST OF TABLES
1.1 Recommendation
First oil from this option can be achieved in early Q4 2014, subject to timely
government and partner approvals.
Case 1 offers the opportunity to reduce the weight and cost and simplify the
design of the two platforms, subject to terms of the metering and allocation
provisions in the Unitization Agreement. Platform cost and weight may be
reduced if all Unit parties agree to utilize multiphase metering on each
1.2 Discussion
Table 1.1 below summarizes the CAPEX, OPEX, configuration and economic
measures of merit for the four primary cases evaluated. Case 5, Subsea
Development, was considered and dismissed without quantitative evaluation at
the recommendation of multiple reputable subsea equipment/service providers.
Table 1.1
Summary of Costs and Configuration for Options Considered
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4
Two Mini CPP Mini CPP Two WHP
WHP, w/ Booster w/ Lift Gas + Relocate
2014 First Gas Compr Compr + FPSO to
Oil + WHP WHP SN
Facilities CAPEX ($MM) $706.6 $985.5 $989.3 $935.4
PMT/PPO ($MM) $68.2 $95.4 $95.4 $90.4
Drilling CAPEX ($MM) $545.7 $612.9 $612.9 $556.5
Total Dev’t CAPEX ($MM) $1,320.5 $1,693.8 $1,697.6 $1,582.4
OPEX ($MM) $73.8 $166.3 $165.3 $91.9
Target First Oil Date Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2015 Q3 2015
North P/F Deck/Jacket Weight D: 1,724 D: 1,724 D: 1,671 D: 1,724
(mT) J: 1,098 J: 1,098 J: 1,098 J: 1,098
North Jacket Configuration 4 Pile 4 Pile 4 Pile 4 Pile
South P/F Deck/Jacket Weight D: 2,030 D: 5,218 D: 5,493 D: 1,724
(mT) J: 1,168 J: 2,167 J: 2,167 J: 1,098
South Jacket Configuration 4 Pile 6 Pile Box 6 Pile Box 4 Pile
Gross Project Economic Measures of Merit
NPV10 ($MM) $2,047.5 $1,662.2 $1,659.9 $1,677.9
AARR (%) 72.5% 56.4% 56.2% 55.1%
PI 4.68 3.23 3.22 3.14
Payout 4.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
PVEP Interests (Incl. Gov’t)
NPV10 ($MM) $1,657.8 $1,370.6 $1,369.1 $1,377.7
AARR (%) 92.9% 71.8% 71.5% 68.9%
PI 6.80 4.31 4.29 4.08
Payout 4.3 5.2 5.2 5.3
Foreign Parties Interest
NPV10 ($MM) $389.7 $291.6 $290.8 $300.2
AARR (%) 42.2% 32.1% 31.9% 32.5%
PI 2.44 1.87 1.87 1.89
Payout 4.9 6.1 6.1 6.1
Case 1 is the technically simplest scenario. Cases 2 and 3 facilities are more
complex, higher cost, and were only considered as a result of delays in
exporting the SN crude samples for flow assurance testing. (Tests showed that
Case 1 can be executed with high confidence and the higher cost, more
complex scenarios are not needed). Finally, Case 4 was addressed as it was
mentioned in 2009 by PVEP as a possible option.
Note that the unitization interests were not considered as the unitization
agreement has yet to be finalized. However, from an economic perspective we
expect that the best development concept for the CLJOC partners is also be the
best economic option for new Unit participants.
2.0 Background
The Su Tu Nau field is located at the north end of offshore Block 15-1 in the
Cuu Long Basin. Block 15-1 is located approximately 180km ESE of
HoChiMinh City. The field lies in 35-40m water depth and the fractured
granite basement is the primary producing horizon. Figure 2.1 below shows
the block location map.
Discovery well SN-1X was spudded on 26 July 2005 with the objective of
testing the Su Tu Nau basement structure. The well was completed on 19
September 2005 as an oil discovery and flowed 9,379 BOPD of 39.8o gravity
oil at 81scf/bbl from the basement. There was no flow from the clastics zones.
Figure 2.1
Block 15-1 Location Map
Well SN-3X was spudded on 25 March 2010 and completed on 29 June 2010.
The objective of this well was to further delineate the fractured granite
basement and to evaluate the E-sequence zone above the basement. The well
flowed 10,781 BOPD of 40° API oil at 167 scf/bo from the basement. The E-
Sequence tested at a rate of 2,898 BOPD of 31° API oil.
A portion of the field extends into neighboring blocks 01/97, 02/97, 01 and 02
to the east of Block 15-1. Under the laws of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam
the Su Tu Nau Field Development is subject to Unitization among all parties.
The Lam Son Joint Operating Company spudded well HXS-1X in the Ho Xam
South structure located in Block 01/97. The well was spudded on 4 April
2008 and completed on 10 May 2008. The well tested 5,414 BOPD of 39.4°
API oil with less than 1MMSCF/D of gas during the main flow period.
All concepts evaluated were reviewed and analyzed using the following
criteria:
• Minimize schedule risk and retain the ability to achieve 2014 first oil.
• Minimize technical risks associated with high-paraffin/low GOR crude
transport over relatively long distances.
• Maintain simplicity of design and execution, duplication of design where
practical and utilization of common spares. This will potentially result in
lower design and operating costs.
• Minimize capital cost exposure and additional overbuilding of processing
capacity in Block 15-1.
• Minimize future operating costs where possible.
• Maximize flexibility for future development from Su Tu Nau facilities.
• Generate economically optimum performance on a gross basis.
The real 2011 dollar based costs were then allocated across the project
schedule in accordance with the expected expenditure, and escalation
factors applied to develop the nominal dollar cost estimate.
Complete details of the OPEX forecasts developed for this study are
given in Appendix 5.
The overall program cost estimate for each development case was
based on 18 wells, split evenly between the Su Tu Nau North and
South platforms. The cost estimate includes costs for location
remediation, mobilization/demobilization of the drill rig, and moving
on/off the platforms throughout the overall program.
Drilling costs presented here include a 20% contingency.
CLJOC has considered five development alternatives for the Su Tu Nau field
as summarized below in Table 5.1.
Table 5.1
Description of Development Options Considered
Case Name Description Reference
1 Dual WHP Install two unmanned wellhead platforms and tie Appendix 1
back to existing infrastructure through WHP-B.
2 BGC CPP + Install a manned, mini-CPP equipped with booster Appendix 2
WHP gas compression & wells in the south and an
unmanned wellhead platform in the north.
3 LGC CPP + Install a mini-CPP with lift gas compression & Appendix 3
WHP wells in the south and an unmanned wellhead
platform in the north.
4 Dual WHP Install two unmanned wellhead platforms; modify Appendix 4
+ FPSO & relocate the FPSO to the SN field and connect
Relocation the SV CPP to the FPSO by dry oil pipeline.
5 Partial Install unmanned wellhead platform in the south, N/A
Subsea develop north area using subsea equipment.
The basis for this elimination was advice from reputable companies that in
shallow water subsea developments consisting of more than 3-4 wells would
not be economically viable. Given that developing even one area of the field
(such as the north) with a subsea template and tying it back to a platform in the
South would involve at least 10 and possibly as many as 16 wells, the industry
advice was respected.
Table 5.2 below describes the development alternatives and costs associated
with each. Case 1 is the simplest development alternative and has the lowest
project CAPEX, overall development CAPEX and OPEX. It is the only
option considered which can realistically achieve 2014 first oil. Case 1A is a
delay case to Case 1.
Both platforms will be equipped with a three phase test separator, and,
because the SN field will be unitized, the conceptual design
incorporates a large allocation separator and metering system on the Su
Tu Nau South platform through which all production from the Su Tu
Nau field will flow.
8.625" x 6.4km
SN-S lift gas pipeline
WHP
6.625" x 6.4km injection
water pipeline
Communications
10.750" x 10.6km injection
Umbilical x 10.6km
water pipeline
SDNE
WHP-B
LP Gas (Reconfigured)
18.000" x 7.2km WHP-A to CPP
Note that significant potential cost and weight savings may be realized
during design optimization if the allocation separator and metering
skid (as well as test manifolds and test separators on both the North
and South Platform) can be eliminated in favor of multiphase flow
meters on individual wells. This would allow the the North and South
platform deck designs to be virtually identical, reducing both design
and fabrication costs. However, in order for this to occur the Unit
Production from the north platform will flow via multiphase pipeline to
the south, where it will be combined with production from the south
and via multiphase under back pressure to WHP-B, at which point the
fluid will be combined with production from SDNE WHP-B and
pipelined to the Su Tu Vang CPP for processing.
Background details for the OPEX for each case are given in Appendix
5. The OPEX profile for Case 1, on both real and nominal dollar bases,
is given below:
5.2.4 OPEX
OPEX for this case are similar to that of Case 1, with the only
difference being the timing delay associated with Case 1A. Details of
the OPEX build-up are given in Appendix 7.
The facility will also be equipped with a single stage, three phase
production separator which would function as an allocation separator.
This separator would be equipped with metering for oil, water and gas
for unit allocation purposes. After metering, produced water will be
8.625" x 6.4km
SN-S BGC lift gas pipeline
CPP
6.625" x 6.4km injection
water pipeline
Communications Umbilical
x 10.6km
10.750" x 10.6km injection
water pipeline
12.750" x 10.6km
insulated multiphase
production pipeline
10.750" x 13.8km lift
gas pipeline
SDNE
WHP-B
LP Gas (Reconfigured)
18.000" x 7.2km WHP-A to CPP
pumped into the pipeline for transfer to the Su Tu Vang CPP for
separation and treating.
The facility will also include oil and water offtake pumps, a production
heater and a heating medium system in order to maintain the pipeline
at temperature. Oil would be pumped back to WHP-B through a
multiphase pipeline.
5.3.3 OPEX
The Case 2 OPEX is summarized on both real 2011 dollar and nominal
dollar bases below. Note the OPEX for this case is substantially higher
than for Case 1 due to the fact that the South platform in Case 2 much
more complex than that in Case 1, and staffed around the clock.
Drilling costs for this option are higher than that for Case 1 as this case
involves drilling and temporarily abandoning, then tying-back and
completing wells on the Su Tu Nau South CPP; this is a consequence
of the float-over configuration selected for that platform.
Figure 5.3
Field Layout, Case 3: Lift Compression CPP + WHP Development
Communications & Power
SN-N
Umbilical x 6.4km WHP
6.625" x 6.4km
SN-S LGC
lift gas pipeline
CPP
6.625" x 6.4km injection
water pipeline
Communications Umbilical
x 10.6km
10.500" x 10.6km injection
water pipeline
12.750" x 10.6km
insulated multiphase
6.625" x 13.8km production pipeline
supplemental gas
pipeline
SDNE
WHP-B
LP Gas (Reconfigured)
18.000" x 7.2km WHP-A to CPP
The SN-S platform will also include oil and water offtake pumps, a
production heater and a heating medium system in order to maintain
the pipeline at temperature. Oil would be pumped back to WHP-B
through a multiphase pipeline.
A 6” gas line will provide sufficient gas for fuel and kick-off gas to
initially lift the first few wells. A lift gas compressor will cycle gas to
wells on SN-S and SN-N, with any excess associated gas above fuel
requirements (or gas volumes needed to keep the export pipeline at 20-
25% in-situ volume fraction) being exported through the multiphase
pipeline where it will flow to the CPP via WHP-B with the oil and
water.
Space will be left on the SN-S platform for future hydrocyclones and
flotation cells for local produced water treating in the event the
produce water rates exceed the forecast and create a hydraulic
bottleneck in the export pipeline.
5.4.3 OPEX
Drilling costs for this option are higher than that for Case 1 as this case
involves drilling and temporarily abandoning, then tieing-back and
completing wells on the Su Tu Nau South CPP; this is a consequence
of the float-over configuration selected for the SN-S platform.
In this scenario the FPSO would be relocated for use in the Su Tu Nau
field, and the field would be developed with two unmanned wellhead
platforms similar in configuration to those in the other cases. Dead oil
and fuel gas would be pipelined from the Su Tu Vang CPP to the new
FPSO location.
14.000" x 23.4km
CPP to FPSO
insulated dry oil
pipeline
SDNE
WHP-B
LP Gas (Reconfigured)
18.000" x 7.2km WHP-A to CPP
Gas and Liquid pipelines, and lift gas and injection water would be
supplied from the FPSO. Power will be generated on and supplied by
cable to the WHP’s from the FPSO.
The Case 4 PMT and infrastructure CAPEX are shown below. The
nominal infrastructure portion of this case is exceeds $1,025MM.
PMT/PPO Cost ($MM/Yr) Infrastructure CAPEX ($MM/Yr)
Year Real Dollar Nominal Real Dollar 2011 Nominal
2011 Basis Basis Basis Basis
2011 $5.0 $5.0 $0.8 $0.8
2012 $12.2 $12.5 $22.3 $23.2
2013 $19.6 $20.6 $191.2 $210.3
2014 $24.0 $25.9 $486.3 $547.0
2015 $20.6 $22.7 $134.4 $154.1
2016 $3.2 $3.6 $0.0 $0.0
Total $84.7 $90.4 $835.1 $935.4
5.5.3 OPEX
The strengths, benefits and risks associated with each case proposed in this
study are summarized below.
Each of the concepts evaluated in this study were qualitatively assessed using
the five major evaluation criteria defined in Chapter 3 above. Table 6.1 below
shows the qualitative risk evaluation for the cases considered in this study.
Table 6-1
Relative Weighted Risk Score for Su Tu Nau Concepts
Relative Risk Ranking
Evaluation Criteria Case 1, Case 2, Case 3, Case 4,
Weighting
Two CPP w/ CPP w/ Two
WHP’s Bstr Lift WHP’s,
Comp. + Comp. + Relocate
WHP WHP FPSO
Schedule Risk – Ability to 25% 3 8 8 9
Achieve 2014 First Oil
Technical Risk (Flow 20% 6 4 4 9
Assurance)
Design & Execution Simplicity 20% 2 8 8 6
& Flexibility
Minimum CAPEX 25% 3 9 9 6
Minimum OPEX 10% 1 9 9 3
Weighted Composite Risk Rank 3.20 7.55 7.55 7.05
Un-weighted Composite Risk Rank 3.00 7.60 7.60 6.60
Each major evaluation criteria was given a weighting reflecting a relative level
of importance. For example, the ability to achieve 2014 first oil and minimum
CAPEX were deemed to be the most important, and these risks were weighted
25% each. Technical Risk and Design/Execution Simplicity & Flexibility
were deemed of equal importance, but somewhat less so than schedule risk
and CAPEX. Consequently these were each weighted at 20%. Finally,
minimizing OPEX was deemed critical, but somewhat less so than the other
criteria and was thus assigned a 10% weighting.
After the risk weighting is established for each of the five evaluation criteria,
each case is compared against the others on each evaluation criteria, and a
relative risk value is assigned. Lower numbers reflect lower relative risk, and
the lowest score is the best score. The highest score is the poorest, or least
favorable, score.
For example, Case 1 has a high probability of being able to achieve first oil in
2014, with the only major risk being delays in the approval process. However,
due to the complexity and need for long lead equipment such as gas
compressors and turbine-generators, it is highly unlikely cases 2 and 3 can
achieve 2014 first oil. Finally, Case 4 is viewed as less likely than cases 2 and
3 to be able to achieve 2014 first oil due to uncertainties and risks associated
with dry-docking and modifying the bow chamfer on the FPSO.
Case 1 is far and away the simplest design, and lends itself to a “design one,
build many” philosophy as, if the metering issues can be worked out with the
Unit partners and a multiphase metering solution be selected, the two
platforms would be nearly identical. In cases 2 and 3 the North and South
platforms are dissimilar and require completely independent designs. Case 4
involves the FPSO modifications and thus ranks lower than Case 1.
For CAPEX and OPEX, the cases are simply ranked according to their relative
costs against one another. Case 1 has the lowest CAPEX and OPEX of all
cases; Cases 2 and 3 have the highest CAPEX and OPEX, and these values are
nearly identical (thus the same ranking). Case 4 falls between Case 1 and
Cases 2 and 3.
Finally, the risk ranking for each evaluation criteria is multiplied by the
weighting assigned to each criterion, and the product is summed up for all
criteria for a given case. This results in the weighted composite risk rank for
each case. In addition, the un-weighted (or equally weighted) composite risk
rank is also shown, which is simply the average of the relative risk rank of
each criterion for a given case.
The economic analysis for the Su Tu Nau Concept Selection Study was
performed using the ConocoPhillips Economic Model. This was done since
no CLJOC economist was available to run this analysis using the CLJOC
economic model.
Appendix 9 contains calculation details from the economic model for the
Gross, PVEP and Foreign Parties analysis. Appendix 10 contains input files
with all relevant information required for the individual CLJOC Partners to
The general basis used for the economics include the following parameters:
• Oil price in accordance with the Purvin & Gertz Minas Price forecast from
November 2010, provided in Appendix 8 of this report.
• Baseline Block 15-1 production profiles from the latest approved Block
15-1 Field Development Plan.
• 61mmboe EUR and 92mmboe EUR profiles as provided CLJOC Sub-
Surface, and a nominal 45mmboe EUR profile fabricated by CLJOC
Development group for the sole purpose of a downside sensitivity
comparison in this analysis.
• Discount rate of 10%.
• All analyses shown here are incremental to the baseline Block 15-1
production and investment profile containing Su Tu Den Southwest, Su Tu
Vang, Su Tu Den Northeast, Su Tu Trang LTPTP and Reconfiguration
Project.
7.1 Results
Table 7.1 below shows the measures of merit for all cases considered
here on a Gross, PVEP Interest and Foreign Party Interest basis.
Reserves, CAPEX and OPEX are also shown for each case considered.
Table 7.2
Description of Sensitivity Analysis and Parameters Utilized
Variable Value Assigned Scenario Definition
Downside Mid Upside Downside Mid Upside
Production/ 45mmboe 61mmboe 92mmboe Poor SSF Base SSF Upside
Reserves (EUR) Performance Case Case
Minas Oil Price $63.16 $80.58 $100.06 Low Price Expected High Price
(2011 Price) Scenario Price Scenario
Facility CAPEX +40% 0% -25% Appropriate Base Appropriate
ROU for Estimate ROU for
defined scope defined scope
Drilling CAPEX +50% 0% -33% 27 wells 18 wells 12 wells
OPEX +40% 0% -25% Appropriate Base Appropriate
ROU for Estimate ROU for
defined scope defined scope
First Oil Date* Q3 2015 Q4 2014 N/A Approval Base Not Possible
Delays Schedule
Finally, the first oil date sensitivity was performed on case 1 only, and
it was simulated as a delay in production from Q4 2014 to Q3 2015,
representing a delay in the project approval process. The complexity
of cases 2, 3 and 4 precludes the possibility of first oil in 2014 in those
cases; if delayed, first oil for cases 2, 3 and 4 could slip into 2016.
Table 7.3 below summarizes the sensitivity analysis for Case 1, Two
Wellhead Platform Development Case. The table shows the sensitivity
range to NPV10 and the range of uncertainty used for each variable.
Data shown in Table 7.3 is on a Gross Project, PVEP Interest
(Including Government) and Foreign Parties Interest.
Table 7.3
Summary of Sensitivity Analysis, Case 1
Gross Project, PVEP Interest (Incl. Gov’t.) and Foreign Parties Interest
NPV10 ($MM) Parameter
Gross Project
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $1,280.5 $2047.5 $3,454.8 45.3 60.4 92.1
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl $964.6 $2047.5 $3,080.8 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $1,812.7 $2047.5 $2,194.3 $1,084.7 $774.8 $581.1
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $1,868.8 $2047.5 $2,166.5 $818.5 $545.7 $364.0
OPEX ($MM) $2,034.4 $2047.5 $2,055.7 $103.3 $73.8 $55.4
Delay $1,932.2 $2047.5 N/A 7/1/15 10/1/14 N/A
PVEP Interest (Incl. Gov’t)
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $1,062.9 $1,657.8 $2,756.3 24.5 32.7 50.0
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl $879.1 $1,657.8 $2,449.1 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $1,498.9 $1,657.8 $1,758.9 $542.3 $387.4 $290.5
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $1,532.4 $1,657.8 $1,743.0 $409.3 $272.8 $182.0
OPEX ($MM) $1,648.1 $1,657.8 $1,663.9 $51.7 $3,6.9 $27.7
Delay $1,557.8 $1,657.8 N/A 7/1/15 10/1/14 N/A
Foreign Parties Interest
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $217.5 $389.7 $698.5 20.8 27.7 42.2
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl $85.2 $389.7 $631.7 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $313.8 $389.7 $435.4 $542.3 $387.4 $290.5
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $336.5 $389.7 $423.5 $409.3 $272.8 $182.0
OPEX ($MM) $386.3 $389.7 $391.7 $51.7 $36.9 $27.7
Delay $374.4 $389.7 N/A 7/1/15 10/1/14 N/A
$80.58
Minas Oil Price
($/bbl Q4 2010) $63.16 $965 $3,081 $100.06
Facility CAPEX
+40.0%
($MM) $1,813 $2,194 -25.0%
Drilling CAPEX
+50.0%
($MM) $1,869 $2,166 -33.0%
$80.58
Minas Oil Price
($/bbl Q4 2010) $63.16 $879 $2,449 $100.06
Facility CAPEX
($MM) +40.0% $1,499 $1,759 -25.0%
Drilling CAPEX
+50.0% $1,532 $1,743 -33.0%
($MM)
Upside Downside
Figure 7.1-3
Case 1 - Two WHP 2014 First Oil Target – Foreign Party Interest
Sensitivity Analysis - Su Tu Nau Concept Selection
P50 NPV10 = $390MM
27.7 mmboe
Prod/Reserves 20.8 mmboe 42.2 mmboe
(mmboe EUR) $218 $699
$80.58
Minas Oil Price
$63.16 $85 $632 $100.06
($/bbl Q4 2010)
Drilling CAPEX
+50.0% $336 $424 -33.0%
($MM)
($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900
Upside Downside
Table 7.4 below summarizes the sensitivity analysis for Case 2, Small
CPP with Booster Gas Compression plus Wellhead Platform
Development Case.
The various party interests are shown graphically below in Figures 7.1-
4, 7.1-5 and 7.1-6, respectively.
Table 7.4
Summary of Sensitivity Analysis, Case 2
Gross Project, PVEP Interest (Incl. Gov’t.) and Foreign Parties Interest
NPV10 ($MM) Parameter
Gross Project
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $937.4 $1,662.2 $2,960.7 44.9 59.9 90.2
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl $613.3 $1,662.2 $2,676.4 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $1,360.3 $1,662.2 $1,850.9 $1,513.3 $1,080.9 $810.7
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $1,477.4 $1,662.2 $1,785.3 $459.6 $612.9 $408.4
OPEX ($MM) $1,633.7 $1,662.2 $1,680.1 $232.8 $166.3 $124.7
PVEP Interest (Incl. Gov’t)
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $814.7 $1,370.6 $2,381.6 24.3 32.4 48.9
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl $675.6 $1,370.6 $2,139.5 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $1,173.6 $1,370.6 $1,498.3 $756.6 $540.5 $405.3
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $1,245.0 $1,370.6 $1,456.5 $540.5 $306.4 $204.4
OPEX ($MM) $1,349.7 $1,370.6 $1,383.8 $116.4 $83.1 $62.4
Foreign Parties Interest
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $122.7 $291.6 $579.1 20.6 27.5 41.3
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl ($62.2) $291.6 $537.0 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $186.6 $291.6 $352.7 $756.6 $540.5 $405.3
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $232.5 $291.6 $328.8 $540.5 $306.4 $204.4
OPEX ($MM) $284.0 $291.6 $296.3 $116.4 $83.1 $62.4
Prod/Reserves
(mmboe EUR) 44.9 mmboe $937 $2,961 90.2 mmboe
$80.58
Minas Oil Price
$2,976
($/bbl Q4 2010) $63.16 $613 $100.06
Facility CAPEX
+40.0% $1,360 $1,851 -25.0%
($MM)
Figure 7.1-5
Case 2 – CPP/BGC+WHP 2015 First Oil – PVEP Interest (incl Gov’t)
Sensitivity Analysis - Su Tu Nau Concept Selection
P50 NPV10 = $1,371MM
32.4 mmboe
$80.58
Facility CAPEX
($MM) +40.0% $1,174 $1,498 -25.0%
Drilling CAPEX
+50.0% $1,245 $1,457 -33.0%
($MM)
Upside Downside
Drilling CAPEX
($MM) +50.0% $232 $329 -33.0%
($200) ($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800
Upside Downside
Table 7.5 below summarizes the sensitivity analysis for Case 3, Small
CPP with Lift Gas Compression plus Wellhead Platform Development
Case.
The various party interests are shown graphically below in Figures 7.1-
7, 7.1-8 and 7.1-9, respectively.
Figure 7.1-7
Case 3 – CPP/LGC+WHP 2015 First Oil – Gross Project
Sensitivity Analysis - Su Tu Nau Concept Selection
P50 NPV10 = $1,660MM
59.9 mmboe
Prod/Reserves
(mmboe EUR) 44.9 mmboe $935 $2,958 90.2 mmboe
$80.58
Minas Oil Price
$2,674
($/bbl Q4 2010) $63.16 $611 $100.06
Facility CAPEX
+40.0% $1,357 $1,849 -25.0%
($MM)
$80.58
Facility CAPEX
($MM) +40.0% $1,171 $1,497 -25.0%
Drilling CAPEX
+50.0% $1,243 $1,455 -33.0%
($MM)
Upside Downside
Figure 7.1-9
Case 3 – CPP/LGC+WHP 2015 First Oil – Foreign Party Interest
Sensitivity Analysis - Su Tu Nau Concept Selection
P50 NPV10 = $291MM
27.5 mmboe
Drilling CAPEX
($MM) +50.0% $232 $328 -33.0%
($200) ($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800
Upside Downside
Table 7.6 below summarizes the sensitivity analysis for Case 4, Two
Wellhead Platform Development with the FPSO Relocated to the Su
Tu Nau Field.
The various party interests are shown graphically below in Figures 7.1-
10, 7.1-11 and 7.1-12, respectively.
Table 7.6
Summary of Sensitivity Analysis, Case 4
Gross Project, PVEP Interest (Incl. Gov’t.) and Foreign Parties Interest
NPV10 ($MM) Parameter
Gross Project
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $952.6 $1,677.9 $2,976.8 43.5 58.5 88.8
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl $654.1 $1,677.9 $2,667.7 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $1,393.3 $1,677.9 $1,855.8 $1,436.2 $1,025.8 $769.4
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $1,509.0 $1,677.9 $1,790.4 $834.7 $556.5 $371.2
OPEX ($MM) $1,661.7 $1,677.9 $1,688.0 $128.6 $91.9 $68.9
PVEP Interest (Incl. Gov’t)
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $819.4 $1,377.7 $2,389.9 24.5 31.7 48.1
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl $685.8 $1,377.7 $2,129.6 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $1,189.9 $1,377.7 $1,498.8 $718.1 $512.9 $384.7
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $1,261.7 $1,377.7 $1,456.8 $417.3 $278.2 $185.6
OPEX ($MM) $1,365.9 $1,377.7 $1,385.1 $64.3 $45.9 $34.4
Foreign Parties Interest
Plow P50 Phigh Plow P50 Phigh
Prod./Resvs, MMBOE $133.3 $300.2 $586.9 20.0 26.8 40.7
Minas Oil Price, $/bbl ($31.6) $300.2 $538.1 $63.16 $80.58 $100.06
Fac. CAPEX ($MM) $203.3 $300.2 $357.0 $718.1 $512.9 $384.7
Drlg CAPEX ($MM) $247.3 $300.2 $333.6 $417.3 $278.2 $185.6
OPEX ($MM) $295.8 $300.2 $302.9 $64.3 $45.9 $34.4
Prod/Reserves
(mmboe EUR) 43.5 mmboe $953 $2,977 88.8 mmboe
$80.58
Minas Oil Price
$2,668
($/bbl Q4 2010) $63.16 $654 $100.06
Facility CAPEX
+40.0% $1,393 $1,856 -25.0%
($MM)
Figure 7.1-11
Case 4 – Two WHP+FPSO Relocation, 2015 – PVEP Interest (incl Gov’t)
Sensitivity Analysis - Su Tu Nau Concept Selection
P50 NPV10 = $1,378MM
31.7 mmboe
Prod/Reserves 24.5 mmboe $819 $2,390 48.1 mmboe
(mmboe EUR)
$80.58
Facility CAPEX
($MM) +40.0% $1,190 $1,499 -25.0%
Drilling CAPEX
+50.0% $1,262 $1,457 -33.0%
($MM)
Upside Downside
$80.58
Minas Oil Price
($/bbl Q4 2010) $63.16 ($32) $538 $100.06
Drilling CAPEX
($MM) +50.0% $247 $334 -33.0%
($200) ($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800
Upside Downside