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29 (2005) 255–273
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Abstract
How people perceive their role and the responsibilities of others in determining the out-
comes of climate change is of great importance for policy-making, adaptation and climate
change mitigation. However, for many people, climate change is a remote problem and not
one of personal concern.
Meaningful visualisations depicting climate change futures could help to bridge the gap
between what may seem an abstract concept and everyday experience, making clearer its local
and individual relevance. Computer aided visualisation has great potential as a means to
interest and engage different groups in society. However, the way in which information is
represented affects an individual’s interpretation and uptake, and how they see their present
choices affecting their future and that of others.
The empirical content of this paper summarises the results of an exploratory qualitative
study, consisting of 30 semi-structured interviews investigating people’s visual conceptions and
feelings about climate change. The emphasis of the inquiry is focussed on eliciting people’s
spontaneous visualisations of climate change and their feelings of involvement with the issue.
The insights gained from the described empirical work set the scene for further research, which
will employ the use of a range of images and visualisations for evaluation.
2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
This paper assesses the use of visualisation for communicating climate change
issues to the public, with reference to the broader theme of visualising scenes of the
*
Tel.: +44-1603-593990; fax: +44-1603-591327.
E-mail address: s.nicholson-cole@uea.ac.uk (S.A. Nicholson-Cole).
0198-9715/$ - see front matter 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2004.05.002
256 S.A. Nicholson-Cole / Comput., Environ. and Urban Systems 29 (2005) 255–273
future or ‘futurescapes’. Fig. 1 illustrates how its various facets interact with each
other. The paper begins by introducing the concept of decarbonisation as a miti-
gative approach to dealing with climate change, highlighting some of the barriers to
domestic decarbonisation and public engagement more generally. The potential for
visualisations of climate change to motivate and engage people with the issue is
addressed, and is linked to how various forms of visualisations are already being
employed in other fields, for example, landscape management and landscape valu-
ation research. In addition, the various methodological and ethical concerns asso-
ciated with creating and using computer-generated visualisations for climate change
science communication are addressed. The empirical component of this paper re-
ports on the results of a qualitative study consisting of 30 semi-structured interviews,
which were designed to explore people’s visual conceptions of climate change, and
how these relate to their perceptions of the issue and their behavioural intentions to
decarbonise.
Because of the great potential for using visualisations to motivate and engage
people with issues like climate change, this paper emphasises the necessity for people
working in the field of visualisation and visual communication to remain aware of
the ethical and methodological issues associated with using computer-generated vi-
sualisations. These include issues of differential interpretation on behalf of the
viewer, subjectivity in the selection of images, and prior assumptions in the creation
of images. Fig. 1 makes clear that in environmental visualisation research, there are
many potential influences and consequences on the creation and success of digital
visualisations. Also that there are many parts to the whole, and that taking a holistic
approach to researching and reading in this field is necessary.
The emerging scientific consensus is that in the last century, human interventions
with the Earth combined with natural events have led to a climate change phe-
nomenon (IPCC, 2001). Due to our dependency on fossil fuels, climate change will
undoubtedly continue in the future with relatively unpredictable impacts on humans
and the environment. Future climate change projections are based on the possible
rates of resource use in the future, and the associated greenhouse gas emissions (e.g.
Hulme, Turnpenny, & Jenkins, 2002; IPCC, 2001; Nakicenovic & Swart, 2000). Our
long-term climate future depends therefore, on how human activities progress from
now on, predominantly in terms of our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and how
the climate system responds. As part of a response to climate change the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) advocate decarbonisation as a mitigative
approach. Decarbonisation mainly involves changing the way we generate and use
energy in ways that reduce carbon dioxide emissions (the main GHG) into the
atmosphere.
This paper concentrates on the role of individual members of the public in col-
lectively reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the UK domestic sector. The
general public needs to understand and accept adaptation and mitigation policies if
they are to be successful, particularly if we are going to reach the 60% reduction in
GHG gas emissions by 2050 as proposed by the Royal Commission on Environ-
mental Pollution (2000) and by the UK Government in the most recent Energy
White Paper (Department of Trade & Industry, 2003). People will certainly have to
make lifestyle changes in many aspects of their lives (household, travel, leisure, etc.)
and will need to feel motivated to take responsibility for their personal reductions in
fossil fuel consumption. They therefore need to be able to link their day-to-day use
of energy with fossil fuel consumption and climate change, and make behavioural
changes accordingly.
1.3. The potential role for visual communication with some environmental examples
Subjectivity is inherent in the selection and creation of images that are used in
climate change communication. The choice of image or photographic representation
and the creation of digital visualisations are not value-free activities. They will al-
ways be informed by ‘expert’ judgement and social contexts, and generating visu-
alisations always involve the creator in making choices as part of the design process
(Ervin & Hasbrouck, 2001). Sheppard (2001) highlights that it is the preparers of the
visualisations who conjure up the imagery, emphasising the potential for visual
communication to put across a particular point of view in a particular way. For
example, Sheppard summarises computer landscape visualisation as constituting a
‘crystal ball’ capable of showing us views into the future and discusses the associated
risks of using these in public communication. Myers (1994) also suggests that like
texts, pictures can suggest an attitude, point of view or form of address and can play
with associations and meanings. By presenting people with a virtual image or picture
of a future in whatever context, we are framing their visualisation based on our own
information and imagination. We cannot help but influence how the viewers see a
climate future for example, when show them the picture. MacFarlane et al. (this
issue) remind us that the techniques of landscape visualisation using 3D modelling
and VR visualisations remain highly expert-oriented, raising matters about the
intersection of values, communication and audience understanding.
A long-standing question exists about the validity of using photographs and other
imagery to represent the present and future (in terms of landscapes for example, see
Daniel & Meitner, 2001). Whilst acknowledging the advantages of virtual reality and
computer-generated simulations of the future, we must remember that digital images
are still ‘virtual’ and not real and that their meanings have many offshoots (Heim,
1998). In a planning context, Lange (2001) argues that public participation is crucial
to an efficient planning process but questions whether, how, and to what degree a
real landscape can be validly represented virtually. Ervin and Hasbrouck (2001)
argue that computer models used for decision-making processes need to be fully
informed by scientific knowledge, and developed slowly with full processes of review
and validation (see also Orland et al., 2001). Appleton and Lovett (2003, this issue)
note that a starting point for ensuring validity is to be sure that computer visuali-
sations are really going to be a useful ‘tool’ for the purpose intended.
Digital visualisation will always be an act of simplification or abstraction from
reality. All visualisations based on computer models contain simplifications,
abstractions and perhaps even distortions (Ervin & Hasbrouck, 2001). We must
consider the issues of simplification and realism in an image because they can
influence a viewer’s experience (Appleton & Lovett, 2003). Daniel and Meitner
(2001, p. 69) conclude, ‘‘. . .the level of abstraction/realism provided by the final
graphic displays from environmental data visualisation systems has important
implications for the validity of human observers’ responses of those visualisations.’’
(see also Karjalainen & Tyrvainen, 2002). Ervin (2001) suggests that ‘realistic’
depictions are often desirable, however high levels of realism cannot always be
incorporated because of limitations in computer power. Lange (2001) concludes that
more and very detailed 3D-object-data and accompanying texture information
would be necessary to make GIS visualisations more realistic. However, technology
262 S.A. Nicholson-Cole / Comput., Environ. and Urban Systems 29 (2005) 255–273
is developing all the time and the influence of new media and computing technologies
has certainly improved the ability to generate realistic visual representations,
sometimes of the future. However, we may still question whether images for certain
purposes need to be photo realistic and whether, for example, artistic impression’s
could suffice.
This leads us to the empirical part of this paper that considers people’s prior
visual perceptions and conceptions about climate change, their attitudes to it and
their likelihood for engagement with the issue. A bottom–up approach is taken
because it is thought that all these things will affect the types of image or visuali-
sation which is most likely to appeal to people and communicate a motivating
message.
2. Method
The empirical part of this paper investigates how the way in which people
interpret and visualise climate change might be employed to develop the way it is
communicated visually. Thirty semi-structured interviews were undertaken with
participants between the ages of 16 and 40 in Norwich, UK. The participants were
recruited through a purposive sampling strategy (Patton, 2002). This study therefore
does not adopt a strictly ‘representative’ or random sampling strategy but takes an
exploratory approach based on three illustrative social groupings. The three groups
were selected to represent a range of socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle
characteristics and future outlooks. Climate change is largely a future issue and so
the differential future orientation between the groups was deemed to be an inter-
esting selection criterion. Due to the likely variation in perceptions of climate
change, individual values and experiences, etc., it was probable that both within and
between groups visual conceptions of climate change would be diverse. The three
groups can be summarised as follows:
Group one: Ten mothers living in an area of Norwich that suffers from some eco-
nomic and social disadvantage. The key to the future orientation of this group was
assumed to be their children’s lives and well-being, and possibly financial issues.
Group two: Ten 16–17 year old students at a local secondary school. The key to
future orientation for this group was assumed to be fairly immediate in terms
of their own lives, career and university choices.
Group three: Ten middle-class young professionals living and working in and
around Norwich. The key to future orientation for this group assumed to be a
mixture of career, financial and upwardly mobile aspirations, family orientation
and so on.
The semi-structured interviews used open questions and aimed to yield data to
illustrate how participants conceptualise climate change visually. The questions were
designed to evoke people’s images, thoughts and feelings about climate change in
relation to:
S.A. Nicholson-Cole / Comput., Environ. and Urban Systems 29 (2005) 255–273 263
The initial questions were designed to explore how people imagine the future
generally and subsequently how climate change features in a global sense and in
relation to their personal futures and individual concerns in life. Several questions
sought to elicit people’s mental imagery in relation to climate change. They were
asked to describe their imagery and were later prompted to include any associations
they made with personal experiences, the media, etc. This was followed with some
questions as to whether the participants had noticed any changes to suggest that
climate change might be happening; their opinions of the causes of and who they
think should take responsibility for it, if at all; what they think they could do per-
sonally to lessen the effects, if anything; the sort of information they think would
help them to learn and do more; finally, what they think the significance of climate
change will be in 50 years time.
Climate change imagery, feelings of salience and of personal self-efficacy tie to-
gether public perceptions of climate change, the barriers individual carbon reduction
and the role of imagery as a motivating factor. As part of an ongoing exploratory
study, the interviews constitute the first stage of a project that will be taken further
by developing and presenting actual examples to the same participants. These will be
based on the visual imagery elicited in the interviews and on expert consultation. A
review of the main results from the interview stage is given, with suggestions for the
nature of the visualisations that the next phase will involve.
participants to visualise present and future climate change issues in relation to their
personal lives and those of their families. Participants were influenced by interper-
sonal communication on the topic and often talked about climate change in relation
to what they had discussed with friends and relatives. They could easily describe
images that they connected to personal conversations about climate change, or in-
stances where they had consciously thought about it. Sometimes other people’s
experience of environmental change was taken as evidence that climate change is
happening and interpersonal communications also appeared to contribute towards
perpetuating some misconceptions for some. For example, the confusion sur-
rounding the ozone issue, and what the causes and consequences of climate change
are (e.g. Ungar, 2000).
Imagination: The strong imaginative component is driven by the many influences
on participants’ elicited visualisations. Imaginative descriptions of climate change
were often linked to people’s opinions and level of knowledge about the causes of
climate change and overlapped with personal experiences and apparent expectations
based on other influences (e.g. Rebetez, 1996, states that human perception of cli-
mate change is strongly influenced by expectations which are not necessarily sup-
ported by observational or other evidence). In cases of uncertainty or lack of
knowledge about the topic, participants were particularly likely to describe
expressions from their imaginations. These were often wildly futuristic and often
featured significant environmental change. Many of the imaginations indicated areas
of people’s confusion and brought together many issues the participants were
uncertain of. Confusion about how climate change is related to other global envi-
ronmental problems also became apparent in participants’ imaginative visualisations
of climate change (e.g. the ozone issue, waste problems and recycling). Imagery
often demonstrated confusion or literal interpretation of variations on the termi-
nology used to talk about climate change (e.g. greenhouse effect, global warming,
ozone hole, etc.). This led to some vivid expressions and highly elaborate visual
interpretations.
3.2. Climate change salience and feelings of self efficacy in relation to imagery
• Group one (mothers) had a particular orientation around the future of their
children, apparently a persistent characteristic of their visualisations of future
climate change. Beyond the lives of their children, they found it difficult to
imagine the future and what climate change might bring. Their visual expec-
tations of climate change were often framed according to how they imagined
climate change affecting the locality where they anticipated their children
growing up. The imagery described by this group was particularly local, with
global descriptions being mainly severe and based on imagination. This group
felt largely unable to do anything, mainly because they did not know what to
do, however appeared to be very willing to make changes if they knew what
they could do and could afford it.
• Group two (school) were most likely to associate their images of climate
change with graphical or diagrammatic representations and what they
had learnt at school. Their imagery was also influenced by local changes
but also by the media and they appeared to find it particularly difficult
to imagine a long-term future. Climate change was not considered an
important issue in relation to the participants’ more immediate framing
of their personal lives, although they felt that they were an important group
because of their influence on the future. However, they felt largely power-
less to make a change or ‘do their bit’ because of their age, dependence
on parents, etc. In the context of a longer-term future, visualisations were
likely to be more dramatic, catastrophic and imaginative. So while group
two participants had plenty to say on the matter, their visualisations were
typically ‘wild’.
• Group three (middle-class young professionals) did not find it too difficult to
imagine the future in 50 years time and articulated relatively more rational
visualisations than groups one and two. Group three were most factual in
their approach to thinking about climate change and their imagery was lar-
gely related to what they had seen in the media or discussed with others. They
seemed to have a fairly broad knowledge about climate change, however they
also seemed uncertain and pessimistic about what would actually happen.
This may be attributed to their requirement for relatively more scientific
proof before taking behavioural action because they generally did not see
how one person could make a difference.
Participants expressed generally that people are a cause of climate change. Many
described visions of politics, industry and the economy, visualisations involving cars,
industry and burning fossil fuels. However, few expressed a connection between their
personal activities and climate change or acknowledged their individual actions as
driving forces of climate change until prompted. They broadly imagined that dealing
with climate change should be everyone’s responsibility but that doing something
about it should be via Government-led initiatives, which should also make it easier
for people. Many participants indicated that individuals could not really make a
S.A. Nicholson-Cole / Comput., Environ. and Urban Systems 29 (2005) 255–273 267
difference (‘drop in the ocean’), particularly when the infrastructure seems like a
barrier to doing anything and when considering scientific and political speculation.
People generally felt that the climate change would continue even if individuals in
Britain change their ways. Some stated that it does not seem worth bothering when
other people are not making an effort (particularly the USA). Some felt that they
could not directly see the effects of climate change happening and therefore saw little
reason to react behaviourally; because it is not an everyday concern, it is difficult to
remain aware and always consider one’s daily actions. It is proposed that this is
related to the distant nature of climate change and the difficulty in relating to and
visualising climate change personally. Essentially, participants were pretty certain
that they would not really become concerned enough to do much about it until some
of the effects actually hit (e.g. until Norwich was flooded). However, most stressed
that they would become more motivated if they could understand what it would
mean for them, what they could do, and be regularly reminded of that by the media,
government efforts and other everyday sources of information.
1. Easy to relate to and personally applicable both spatially (i.e. locally recognisable)
and temporally (i.e. within a perceivable length of time, not too far in the future
so as to be unrealistic), possibly involving a high level of realism.
2. As scientifically certain as possible, representing the most sound projections from
a source trusted by the target audience.
3. Instructive with a clear message in order to send the message that climate change
is an important issue, and that individuals can make a difference (by doing certain
things). These must come across as being easy to do, positive and feasible given
other life commitments.
4. Attention grabbing so that people notice the image and think about it. It seems
that pictures with people or animals in them have this characteristic. Such pictures
have an affective dimension, eliciting an emotional reaction which is perhaps more
likely to initiate a thought process or feelings that the issue is salient and worth
doing something about. However we must be acutely aware of the points made
in Section 1.4.
5. Tailored for the target audience according to their perceptions of climate change
and attitudes toward it; aiming the right tool at the right people as Appleton and
268 S.A. Nicholson-Cole / Comput., Environ. and Urban Systems 29 (2005) 255–273
Lovett (this issue) suggest, in order to add validity to the use of computer-gener-
ated visualisations.
4. Conclusion
The study reported in this paper indicates that mass media, personal experience,
interpersonal communication and imagination all make a positive contribution to
S.A. Nicholson-Cole / Comput., Environ. and Urban Systems 29 (2005) 255–273 269
Acknowledgements
This work forms part of a Ph.D. funded by the Economic and Social Research
Council.
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