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QUANTITATIVE
PREDICTION – ‘EXACT’
PROBABILITIES
NUMERICAL
Interval Posses inherent ordering and the Temperature
interval between successive
values is equal
HIGH
RELIABILITY
FREQUENCY
LOW
MEASUREMENT
VALIDITY
• the degree to which the data measure what they
were intended to measure
• the result of a measurement correspond to the true
state
• accuracy
RELIABILITY
• Reliability=the extent that repeated measurement of
a stable phenomenon by different people and
instrument, at different time/place get similar
results
INSTRUMENT
MEASUREMENT
OBSERVER
VARIATIONS
WITHIN
INDIVIDUALS
BIOLOGIC
AMONG
INDIVIDUALS
Monitored fetal heart
Number of Observations rate 130-150
-50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50+
UNDERESTIMATE OVERESTIMATE
400 -
300 -
200 -
DAY 1
DAY 3
100 -
DAY 2
0-
NOON 6 PM MIDNIGHT 6 AM
SOURCE OF CONDITION OF MEASUREMENTS DISTRIBUTIONS
VARIATIONS
DIASTOLIC BP (mmHg)
BLINDED :
•SINGLE
•DOUBLE
•TRIPLE
CALIBERATED
INSTRUMENTS
ASSOCIATED
WITH DISEASE
TREATABLE
ASSESING NORMALITY
Based in statistical theory and has no necessary relationship to natural distribution
KURTOSIS
SKEWNESS
68%
95%
99%
www.psychlotron.org.uk
Based in statistical theory and has no necessary relationship to natural distribution
Average IQ in the
population is 100pts. The further from 100
you look, the fewer
frequency
70 100 130
www.psychlotron.org.uk
IQ Scores
• Many statistical methods require that the
numeric variables we are working with have
an approximate normal distribution.
• For example, t-tests, F-tests, and
regression analyses all require in some
Standardized
normal distribution
sense that the numeric variables are rule
with empirical
approximately normally distributed.
percentages.
• Histogram and Boxplot
• Normal Quantile Plot
(also called Normal Probability Plot)
• Goodness of Fit Tests
Shapiro-Wilk Test (JMP)
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (SPSS)
Anderson-Darling Test (MINITAB)
The cholesterol levels of the
patients appear to be
approximately normal,
although there is some
evidence of right skewness
as the mean is larger than
the median.
The red curve represents a
normal distribution fit to
these data and the blue
curve the density estimate
for these data, these curves
should agree if our data is
normally distributed.
The systolic volumes of the
male heart patients in this
study suggest that they come
from a right skewed
population distribution.
The red curve represents a
Outliers are not normal distribution fit to these
consistent with
data and the blue is the
normality.
estimated density from the
data which does not agree with
the imposed normal.
Ho: The distribution of systolic volume
is normal
HA: The distribution of systolic volume
is NOT normal
Because p < .0001 we have
strong evidence against
normality for the systolic
volume population
distribution using the
Shapiro-Wilk test.
Ho: The distribution of systolic volume
is normal
HA: The distribution of systolic volume
is NOT normal