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individuals aged 71 to 78, work-related stress increased effects remain constant over time, but in the case of
the risk of MCI (OR = 1.38), dementia (OR = 1.53), and dementia prevention, this is unknown. Thus, time-to-event
AD (OR = 1.55).15 analyses such hazard ratios may not be the best way to
Despite the differences between countries of origin, model effects, particularly if the detectable signal is a late
culture, language, educational attainment, and ages stud- effect of the intervention.21 Because AD is heterogeneous
ied, the aforementioned studies and many others are con- in terms of risk factors, age of onset, presentation, progres-
vergent for a short list of risk factors that seem to play a sion, and pathology burden, designing a study to treat
critical role in the development or prevention of AD and individuals as a homogenous population requires large
related disorders. This consistency has led to the imple- sample sizes (thousands to tens of thousands) to be fol-
mentation of a number of dementia prevention initiatives lowed for long periods of time (years to decades).22 This
to modify these risk factors, most of which cannot be results in large study costs, staff burden, and participant
directly linked to amyloid or tau deposition. burden. In the absence of robust biomarkers that mark dis-
ease onset and progression, rather than just the presence
of pathology, RCT design will remain a challenge.23 Barri-
Ongoing Prevention Initiatives
ers to prevention studies include limited understanding of
The European Prevention of AD16 initiative is recruiting the real relationship between dementia risk factors and the
participants to examine whether alteration of risk factors effect of risk reduction; complexity of the effect of life
for AD that occur in early and mid-life potentiate patho- course on dementia risk factors; lack of standardization of
physiological changes decades before dementia onset. The study design, definitions, and outcomes; difficulty translat-
Innovative Midlife Intervention for Dementia Deterrence ing RCT findings into real-world practice; cultural and
trial9 is examining 11 identified risk factors (e.g., diabetes, social barriers to implementation; lack of research capacity
hypertension, renal) that account for half of the attributa- to enroll large research cohorts for long periods of time;
ble risk and has enrolled 600 individuals to participate in and pervasive social stigma associated with AD.18
an on-line education intervention. The largest initiative to Because effective prevention strategies are elusive
date is the FINGER study,17 enrolling 1,260 individuals in despite significant advances in understanding of the biol-
an educational intervention that includes modules in diet, ogy and pathophysiology of AD, an alternative approach
exercise, cognitive training, and vascular risk reduction. would be to take advantage of precision medicine designs
Overall between-group differences were statistically signifi- used in oncology trials to tailor interventions to an individ-
cant for global cognition, executive function, and process- ual’s phenotypic and genotypic expression. With better
ing speed but not episodic memory.17 These results suggest classification and phenotyping of individuals with AD,
that lifestyle modification may offer some benefit in cogni- trial-ready cohorts can be targeted more appropriately
tive function, albeit with a small effect size. with interventions (pharmacological and nonpharmacologi-
cal) designed to ameliorate specific pathological mecha-
nisms, based on specific biomarkers and individual
PRECISION MEDICINE APPROACHES TO
characteristics.23 Future trials could then be created to
PREVENTION
determine efficacy and safety (fast to fail) more quickly by
Although age is the single greatest risk factor for AD, AD moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches to person-
is not inevitable. The best estimates suggest that, at age specific precision treatments.
85, there is 42% risk of developing AD,1 which means This would also require rethinking trial design for pre-
that 58% of older adults do not develop dementia, even if vention measures, moving to more N-of-1 designs. N-of-1
amyloid can be detected in the brain. The reasons are trials consider the individual as the sole unit of observation
unknown, but may be explained in part by a host of modi- to study the efficacy and adverse effects of an interven-
fiable and nonmodifiable risk factors (Table 1). Up to tion22 and are guided by objective data-driven criteria
30% of AD cases may be preventable through modifica- while leveraging the study designs and statistical tech-
tion of risk factors and behavioral changes to mitigate the niques common to RCTs.22 Because risk and molecular
effect of those risk factors that are not modifiable.18 There profiles of AD vary widely by person, grouping individuals
is an ongoing debate as to whether the current evidence into single entities (placebo vs treatment arm) may mix
base is sufficient to initiate prevention programs because it “super-responders” with “nonresponders,” washing out
is difficult to prove causation from observational studies, treatment effects that only become apparent in post hoc
and it is difficult to pool multiple RCTs because of differ- analyses.24 Instead, comparing time-to-disease progression
ences in study design, measurements used, and anticipated of an individual using a novel therapeutic approach to the
outcomes.18 Although a well-balanced, healthy lifestyle time-to-disease progression for that same individuals for
may be the cornerstone of disease prevention and brain the immediately preceding treatment paradigm may be
health, each risk factor (vascular, lifestyle choices, psy- preferable.25 N-of-1 trials may be less bound by threats to
chosocial) may both act independently and potentiate the generalizability of large RCTs due to recruitment delays
effects of each other.19,20 Therefore, a prevention initiative and challenges to translate significant p-values in large
needs to be multimodal and tailored to address individual treatment groups to the care of an individual, which is the
risks. ultimate goal of clinical practice. In a metaanalyses of
These requirements lead to a number of design and 70 N-of-1 trials, 50 of 57 completed trials provided defini-
analytical challenges. Many prevention RCTs use time-to- tive clinical or statistical answers, with 39% prompting
event analytical strategies to demonstrate a DMT effect. physicians to change the plan of care.26 Another metaanal-
Such designs are optimal when anticipated treatment ysis examined 108 trials involving 2,154 participants and
JAGS OCTOBER 2017–VOL. 65, NO. 10 PREVENTING ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE 2131
found that 54% of participants had subsequent treatment N-of-1 trials. For example, a 68-year-old college-educated
decisions changed based on the results.27 To create the woman (although an actual case, some features were
platform for such trials, several conditions must be met altered to preserve anonymity) presented with a 1-year his-
(Table 2). Participants must be deeply phenotyped with tory of subjective memory complaints (misplacing car keys,
characterization of sociodemographic, psychological, clini- forgetting conversations, defensiveness about memory
cal, cognitive, functional, biomarker, and genetic traits. issues) but with independent functioning in everyday activ-
Ideally, these individuals would agree to be followed longi- ities. Her relevant past history was significant for hyper-
tudinally, have samples banked for future analyses, and tension and hypercholesterolemia. Physical examination
consent to autopsy to provide confirmation of diagnosis findings included mild hypertension (blood pressure 132/
and treatment effects on brain pathology. Statistical con- 92 mmHg) but normal cardiac and peripheral vascular
siderations may take advantage of alternative time-series examinations. Pertinent neurological findings included mild
analyses and within- and between-subject comparisons. symmetric weakness, poor vibration sensation in the lower
Lastly, an important concern is the cost of care when a extremities, and mild postural instability. Cognitive testing
high-cost intervention is planned—for example, off-label revealed global deficits (Montreal Cognitive Assessment
treatment with an expensive medication.22 score 19/30), working memory and executive dysfunction,
and episodic memory deficits on list learning that disap-
peared with cued recognition. Physical and functional test-
EXAMPLE OF A PERSONALIZED MEDICINE
ing revealed low lean muscle mass, at-risk nutritional
APPROACH TO DEMENTIA PREVENTION
status, modest daily physical activity, mild deficits in phys-
As an example of how this may applied in a pragmatic ical functionality (Short Physical Performance Battery score
sense, N-of-1 trials are being developed to personalize 7/12), and mild frailty (Fried Frailty Phenotype Score 3/5).
dementia prevention using an evidence-base derived from Gait and balance testing revealed slowed gait speed
an extensive literature review and results of a National (1.07 m/s), marked slowing (22.9%) with a dual-task chal-
Institutes of Health–funded project to conduct dementia lenge (walking while talking), and postural sway with eyes
screening in multicultural communities (R01 AG0402–11- closed. Blood-based biomarkers revealed an abnormal lipid
A1, study design reviewed28,29). In addition to screening profile (high total, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and
for cognitive impairment, broader medical screening for non–high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol; high LDL
diabetes mellitus, hypertension, vascular risk factors, obe- and small LDL particles; and low HDL particles), high
sity, mobility, physical performance, frailty, and depression inflammatory markers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein
was incorporated into a “healthy body, healthy mind” and myeloperoxidase), apolipoprotein (Apo)E 3/4 geno-
approach to make the concept of dementia screening more type, and evidence of insulin resistance (high fasting glu-
acceptable and to understand the effect of comorbid dis- cose, glycosylated hemoglobin, and estimated average
ease on cognitive performance. This cross-sectional study glucose). Quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)
confirmed many findings of observational studies regarding revealed normal hippocampal size and lateral ventricle vol-
the association between cognitive performance and dia- ume but confluent white matter hyperintensities with fron-
betes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, vascular risk factors, tal lobe predominance. Auditory event–related potentials
and depression while providing novel findings linking cog- demonstrated slow median reaction times and low ampli-
nitive performance to sarcopenia28 and mobility.29 These tude at the N200 peak (linked to impaired attention and
collective findings were prospectively applied to develop executive function) and left–right asymmetry with frontal
predominance (linked to vascular injury) but normal
amplitudes and latencies at all other peaks, including the
P50 peak associated with amyloid deposition.30 This deep
Table 2. Basic Principles of a Dementia Prevention phenotypic evaluation provided findings in cognitive
Program testing (executive and working memory deficits with cued
Establish a longitudinal cohort of individuals without memory episodic memory improvements supporting intact
impairment and with prodromal disease hippocampal circuitry), physical testing (sarcopenia, at-risk
Develop a protocol that can measure person-centered and health- nutritional status, poor physical functionality, and early
economic outcomes frailty), gait testing (slowed gait speed, impaired dual
Evaluate clinical, cognitive, functional, and behavioral features annually tasks, postural instability with eyes closed), biomarker test-
Collect and bank biomarkers: blood, spinal fluid, deoxyribonucleic acid, ing (lipid profile, inflammation, insulin resistance, ApoE4
cell lines, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography
genotype suggesting poor response to statins), MRI
Encourage autopsy participation
Perform deep phenotyping of individuals with near total participation in (preservation of hippocampal and cortical volume, exten-
all biomarker collection protocols by all participants sive white matter disease), and electroencephalography (ex-
Apply precision medicine–type interventions to match treatment to ecutive dysfunction and evidence of vascular injury) that
individual characteristics could be treated and supported a diagnosis of vascular
Test customized N-of-1 interventions over a designated period to cognitive impairment. A personalized treatment plan was
determine whether protocols alter biophysiological profiles, disease- then developed focusing on dietary counseling (Mediter-
relevant biomarkers, and outcome measures ranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay
Develop a statistical plan to incorporate immediate, intermediate, and
diet, high-protein snacks, glycemic control); physical
long-term time-to-event analyses
Create a trial-ready cohort for large-scale pharmacological and therapy for gait, balance, strengthening, and conditioning;
nonpharmacological interventions referral to a personal trainer for aerobic, resistance,
and flexibility training; mindfulness (yoga, meditation)
2132 GALVIN OCTOBER 2017–VOL. 65, NO. 10 JAGS
A RISK
Pathology
FACTOR(S) Neurodegeneraon:
A A
Loss of synapses, Cognive Clinical
neurons, dendrites, Decline Demena
RISK dendric spines
FACTOR(S) Pathology
B B
B
APOE Vascular
Insulin
resistance Vascular
Neurodegeneraon
Vascular
HTN Loss of synapses,
Resistance neurons, dendrites, Cognive Clinical
dendric spines Decline Demena
Obesity Inflammation
Accumulang
Physical Pathologic Burden
function Vascular
Trophic
Sarcopenia Factors
Figure 1. Model of a dementia-prevention initiative. (A) Hypothetical model of the development of clinical dementia. Before
diagnosis, there would be evidence of cognitive decline, which reflects neurodegenerative changes including cellular dysfunction
and loss, synaptic dysfunction, and loss of connectivity. Presumably, accumulation of one or more pathologies cause these down-
stream changes. If more than one pathology is present, each should have its own risk factor or factors (e.g., Risk Factor A causes
Pathology A, Risk Factor B causes Pathology B). (B) Application of model in N-of-1 trial (described in detail in text). Six risk
factors were identified during the clinical evaluation, presumably working through different pathways, with the end result being
neurodegeneration, cognitive decline, and if unchecked, eventually clinical dementia. A personalized prevention plan directed at
root causes of impairment, if successful, would prevent the conversion of cognitive decline to dementia (marked by X). Because
root causes may interact or potentiate each other’s effect on neurodegeneration (connecting arrows on the left side), multimodal
approaches are more likely to have an effect than single approaches. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
for stress reduction; cognitive exercise focusing on prob- their personal health profile, rather than using “one-size-
lem-solving skills; omega-3 supplementation and possible fits-all” approaches. The detection of and interventions
resin therapy for cholesterol lowering; better blood pres- addressing root causes may offer novel approaches to diag-
sure monitoring; and initiation of low-dose aspirin to nosing, treating, curing, or preventing AD. AD offers a
improve blood flow. Longitudinal follow-up is needed to large array of potentially modifiable risk factors (lifestyle,
monitor adherence to recommendations and for evidence exposure, environment, comorbid disease) that are excel-
of improvement in outcomes. Such a trial could provide a lent targets to personalize the approach to medical care.
direct estimate of individual treatment effects, fine-tune Precision medicine approaches specifically target the
personalized care plans, enhance precision of future treat- heterogeneity of AD by identifying person-specific risk fac-
ment decisions, improve person-centered outcomes, and if tors and applying a customized intervention directed
successful, reduce long-term healthcare costs.25 against this risk profile. Even if these precision approaches
do not cure or prevent AD, removing other pathways to
neurodegeneration may greatly improve the likelihood that
DISCUSSION
amyloid- or tau-specific therapies reach their endpoints.
There is increasing evidence that multiple medical condi- Perhaps it is time to abandon generalized approaches to
tions increase the risk of neurodegeneration and subse- AD and consider neurodegenerative disorders as diseases
quent development of dementia (Figure 1). It is also of a lifetime and that there may be individualized ways to
becoming clear that the majority of these risk factors act build a better brain as we age.
in amyloid- and tau-independent ways. Trials testing the
amyloid hypothesis (b- and c-secretase inhibitors, antiag-
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
gregation medications, mono- and polyclonal antibody
approaches), antiinflammatory agents, and early-phase Conflict of Interest: Dr. Galvin serves as a scientific advi-
anti-tau therapies have failed to meet outcomes or have sor for Axovant, Biogen, Eisai, and Eli Lilly; receives
been discontinued because of safety concerns. While we licensing fees from Pfizer, Lilly, Axovant, and Quintiles;
wait for successful pharmacotherapy, these multiple path- and conducts on-going clinical trials funded by Biogen,
ways leading to AD can be taken advantage of to test Axovant, and Janssen. Dr. Galvin is funded by grants from
hypotheses regarding risk reduction and mitigation. In all NIH (R01 AG0402–11-A1, U01 NS100610, and R01
likelihood, efforts to prevent cognitive decline and devel- NS088040–01), the Florida Department of Health, the
opment of dementia may be more successful when they are Harry T. Mangurian Foundation, and the Association for
multimodal and directed to at-risk individuals based on Frontotemporal Degeneration. He is on the editorial
JAGS OCTOBER 2017–VOL. 65, NO. 10 PREVENTING ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE 2133
boards of Neurodegenerative Disease Management, Alzhei- 13. Cheng ST. Cognitive reserve and the prevention of dementia: The role of
physical and cognitive activities. Curr Psychiatry Rep 2016;18:85.
mer’s Disease and Associated Disorders, and Acta Neu-
14. Sindi S, Calov E, Fokkens J et al. The CAIDE Dementia Risk Score App:
ropathologica. The development of an evidence-based mobile application to predict the
Author Contributions: Dr. Galvin was responsible for risk of dementia. Alzheimers Dement (Amst) 2015;1:328–333.
the study design, statistical analyses and interpretation, 15. Sindi S, Hagman G, H akansson K et al. Midlife work-related stress
increases dementia risk in later life: The CAIDE 30-Year Study. J Gerontol
drafting, and revising and submitting the manuscript.
B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 2016 [Epub ahead of print].
Sponsor’s Role: None. 16. Ritchie CW, Molinuevo JL, Truyen L et al. European Prevention of Alz-
heimer’s Dementia (EPAD) Consortium. Development of interventions for
the secondary prevention of Alzheimer’s dementia: The European Preven-
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